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"text": "Who the hell keeps voting these odds up? All the counties save Frio have reported more than half their results. We have a representative sample of how the rest of the votes will roll, and they're not going to turn out the 57% Brandon needs. It be one thing if the uncounted votes were concentrated in a wildcard that hadn't reported any results yet. But whem the uncounted votes are spread out over counties that have already been mostly counted, there's isn't a shadow large enough for a black swan to hide. ",
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} | Savior of Plant | 6tH4hCf3kWtXWA64lMnu | public | contract | 1,716,953,136,394 | will-rfk-qualify-for-the-6272024-pr | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 6/27/2024 presidential debate on CNN? | sm73mxl8gxh | 0.302664 | 31.19029 | YES | null |
1vsisph7s3nk | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
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} | jackson polack | SufJVwcJSZ0g81X3Lnm5 | public | contract | 1,716,953,215,228 | was-roaring-kittys-account-hacked | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Was roaring kitty's account hacked? | null | 0.065816 | 3,387.140691 | NO | null |
zodetjwzm9m | false | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | {
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],
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],
"type": "doc"
} | fish | 30EzAFfW4YdQWOqodZIQ | public | contract | 1,716,953,231,028 | which-team-will-win-the-western-con | kurt | Which team will win the Western Conference? Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks | l1bhyziolbl | null | 14,365.781904 | YES | bfba958c6a86 | |
7riun2mdhb9 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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"text": "what's the beer count Pat? ",
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],
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} | stefanie | KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm | public | contract | 1,716,953,342,958 | will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24 | shankypanky | Will I eat ass in the next 24...? | null | null | 753.375109 | NO | e46ef40a0bed | |
fnva832g8rj | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
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"text": "probably the stupidest possible outcome is for you to be right and for him to win the election anyway. so that will probably happen",
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],
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} | Savior of Plant | gKFNQHJs7pKpweDrA0Dx | public | contract | 1,716,953,412,734 | if-trump-is-convicted-of-interferin | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | If Trump is convicted of interfering with the 2016 election, how much jail time will he be sentenced to? | null | null | null | null | null |
78n9k9f5b66 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
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"text": "Resisting the urge to spice this market for manifest",
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],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm | public | contract | 1,716,953,445,576 | will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24 | Joshua | Will I eat ass in the next 24...? | null | null | 256.233393 | NO | 78b206a583b7 | |
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} | stefanie | KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm | public | contract | 1,716,953,689,643 | will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24 | shankypanky | Will I eat ass in the next 24...? | 78n9k9f5b66 | null | 753.375109 | NO | e46ef40a0bed | |
drpt3x2obil | false | uQWY3xjCHhR0YxSBbOKlaYAqq583 | {
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} | Sylvi “wingedcatgirl” | 28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f | public | contract | 1,716,953,693,421 | will-human-narration-for-audiobooks | wingedcatgirl | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLEgGKJTwZnQEK49fJQfOQDMG-sX9PbbZ4wJR0kiWFybg=s96-c | Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026? | null | null | null | null | null |
i1h62d02j5j | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
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"text": " Pat is welcome to add anything related to this market to the prop bets lol",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm | public | contract | 1,716,953,781,447 | will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24 | Joshua | Will I eat ass in the next 24...? | 78n9k9f5b66 | null | 256.233393 | NO | 78b206a583b7 | |
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} | Mike Chen | zMDExnqFpxRB03nempQj | public | contract | 1,716,953,836,760 | will-the-hayes-valley-trader-joes-o | MikeChenSF | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c | Will the Hayes Valley Trader Joe's open by June 2024? | null | 0.939025 | 934.5848 | YES | null |
uxjqlstgi2e | false | eHQRYIgdvQdFvS4WroVyDYmhHW33 | {
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} | Roaring Kitty | SufJVwcJSZ0g81X3Lnm5 | public | contract | 1,716,954,201,165 | was-roaring-kittys-account-hacked | SF | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2U0gOt-5ScdQ8ncUf-KI3f5klkaBeQF7dGvEhfGk_Xzw=s96-c | Was roaring kitty's account hacked? | null | 0.065816 | 9,645.834536 | YES | null |
4fcm0g12f2s | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
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"text": "I believe it is possible strong AI will kill us all, but also that it will bring about a relative utopia and uplift a lot of humans out of meaningless suffering. ",
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"text": "The magnitude of my expected value of AI being built is therefore roughly zero, but with very high variance over outcomes. So I suppose that makes me “both” because the common thread of EA and e/acc is that AI will be a big deal, which I agree with. ",
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} | Connor Dolan | 2zwnbjEX55TK5oVRDR3c | public | contract | 1,716,954,393,438 | do-you-identify-as-ea-or-eacc | ConnorDolan | Do you identify as EA or E/acc? | null | null | null | null | null | |
3xgcymlx67n | false | VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63 | {
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"text": "https://manifold.markets/Mad/will-australia-release-significant-e7a8810b3ef4?r=TWFk",
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"description": "50% chance. Should be federal, or in at least 75% of the states & territories (by population). \n\nThe word significant is vague, and I am keen to clarify. I won't bet on this market.",
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} | Madge | PEAh4AsufK9Xdy8kKker | public | contract | 1,716,955,645,137 | will-australia-announce-the-establi | Mad | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c | Will Australia announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
63lruot244a | false | 2BxXRsWcjIU3OTyyhyjac7yyy4P2 | {
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{
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"text": "Biden is completely responsible for the border and migrant crisis. Trying to blame Trump is just crass. ",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kakonomics | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,716,955,651,657 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | Yoae | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | i5q7c0qby1c | 0.494106 | 96.188291 | NO | null | |
kjjukmmgh89 | false | LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3 | {
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"text": " One example where the Biden White House took good policy with bad execution from the Trump admin and has been very successful is the trade war with China. Biden's China policy is Trump's China policy with better diplomacy and better control over US technology exports, which China values higher than US agricultural exports. Biden's deals with Taiwan have both strengthened Taiwan's position and ours, something that I frankly don't think Trump or anyone in his administration were capable of pulling off. ",
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"text": "Trump had all the parts and went with trying to drive up the price of soy? Did he think he was going to starve the Chinese? I bet Trump still has no idea how much the Chinese have invested in agriculture globally in the last 20 years. The Chinese just laughed at him and told him they weren't going to need our pork either.",
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],
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],
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} | becauseyoudo | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,716,955,721,124 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | becauseyoudo | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | i5q7c0qby1c | 0.494106 | 653.630898 | YES | null |
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