id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
xoj3bykvbk | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2",
"label": "DismalScientist",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " this can resolve NO ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | ZZjmowzxiNqYObXisuaV | public | contract | 1,717,206,206,989 | will-an-nba-expansion-team-be-annou | Ziddletwix | Will an NBA expansion team be announced before June 2024? | null | 0.01 | 837.425086 | NO | null | |
dqk6q4p2if | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Cj0KDcaCIuZJQlX8Ba5SMf6cbsj2",
"label": "LukeAlvarez",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " i assume this resolves NO?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | JV6CNOWJQUZRPTM2FfEM | public | contract | 1,717,206,227,895 | will-i-be-able-to-create-a-manifold | Ziddletwix | Will I be able to create a manifold bot that can react to other users trades by 5/28/24? | null | 0.263009 | 78.832233 | NO | null | |
b6kjnyw31k | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2",
"label": "DismalScientist",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " this resolves NO ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | Z501rpaBCx57qqJ5IvVB | public | contract | 1,717,206,243,090 | will-rahul-gandhi-leader-of-indias | Ziddletwix | Will Rahul Gandhi (leader of India's main opposition party) be in prison in May 2024 (the next Indian general election)? | null | 0.028436 | 52.180682 | NO | null | |
2z4q5nuj9qg | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gjUcLN8UBzLJwU71rI8Y3C3wjpB2",
"label": "c0m",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " these can resolve? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Will blocking be more granular in general like e.g. the ability to only block a person's markets but see everything else from them?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Seems like a clear NO",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Will the leagues system as it exists today be removed or substantially reworked?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "clear NO",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "the rest are more subjective ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | vAYpNqJLXWfZwmWKvcHS | public | contract | 1,717,206,408,348 | which-complaints-from-plasmas-manif | Ziddletwix | Which complaints from Plasma's Manifold survey will be considered to have been meaningfully improved on by June 2024? | null | null | 115.151231 | NO | 622b0b10a59f | |
c727ouen7a | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tovb1ekheui",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I’m fine with that. This is not the Manifold hill I want to take my do or die stand on — couple respected friends’ opinion on whether flashing fancy nail do is sticking it to the Man!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | qMtEGWTyykNo0T2Cc42S | public | contract | 1,717,207,469,135 | what-will-happen-in-may-2024-add-re | ClubmasterTransparent | 🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | i4llmykwj5g | null | 999.249704 | YES | d2813314d94d | |
n4wue4kqhwn | false | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i have a prior here that it doesn't make sense for yc to back a biotech company. therefore, i put this at < 5%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Campbell Hutcheson | F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | public | contract | 1,717,207,786,842 | will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t | CampbellHutcheson | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | null | null | null | null | null | |
gm4n5hnkcr9 | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Change my mind: it’s to Trump’s advantage to drag this out as long as possible. Which means there’s a significantly non-zero chance that he doesn’t choose a running mate ever. It’s not like someone is sitting on the fence “Gee I like his policies mostly but he is a little loud and I just don’t know what to do, they’re all crooks, no one cares about people like me, oh HEY he’s running with that nice Doug Burgum well THAT changes everything!”",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | LXRFURFEYsw5xA9tjg57 | public | contract | 1,717,207,961,189 | will-donald-trump-choose-a-vp-runni | ClubmasterTransparent | Will Donald Trump choose a VP running mate before Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift? | null | 0.920496 | 250 | NO | null | |
6jv0znqhroa | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Buying No because he won't sell low and he'll already have started tweeting again due to the town hall he's doing with X.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Panfilo | XqQOd1r1P9azAjrkHMRQ | public | contract | 1,717,207,965,196 | will-donald-trump-start-to-post-on | Panfilo | Will Donald Trump start to post on X again after he sells his Truth Social Stock? | null | 0.339804 | 678.343892 | NO | null | |
hzs046s4hls | false | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 6",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Haws | Xvg1KZtOIlTW5Qrwi4MX | public | contract | 1,717,208,160,819 | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-ed00216a8461 | Haws | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | null | null | 0 | NO | 099a027a4c56 | |
imcdv278w7f | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Haws",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 6, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059238",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4059238",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059240",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4059240",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: hzs046s4hls.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | Xvg1KZtOIlTW5Qrwi4MX | public | contract | 1,717,208,162,455 | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-ed00216a8461 | FairlyRandom | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | null | null | null | null | null | |
rhwllqpu5s | false | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "@FairlyRandom",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 6",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Haws | Xvg1KZtOIlTW5Qrwi4MX | public | contract | 1,717,208,164,606 | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-ed00216a8461 | Haws | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | null | null | 0 | NO | 099a027a4c56 | |
jrbqc826gq | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Haws",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 6, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059238",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4059238",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059240",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4059240",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: rhwllqpu5s.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | Xvg1KZtOIlTW5Qrwi4MX | public | contract | 1,717,208,166,250 | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-ed00216a8461 | FairlyRandom | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | null | null | null | null | null | |
jxta2xed2es | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Haws",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 3",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: hzs046s4hls, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059240",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4059240",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature a39074fd8710b06ec2de72f1a2349769a6e4d90a70cfa24fa803670fa9160c6233f6603812545a25378b56844c82c76c0415ec1a79fe2db867d740186c02fae2c41917a295d49a1440aed5ef3d9d7fd46815efd90fbcf8f58f562c7af42107b5)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | Xvg1KZtOIlTW5Qrwi4MX | public | contract | 1,717,208,223,582 | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-ed00216a8461 | FairlyRandom | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vjc63uyau0d | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Haws",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 1",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: rhwllqpu5s, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059240",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4059240",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature a39074fd8710b06ec2de72f1a2349769a6e4d90a70cfa24fa803670fa9160c6233f6603812545a25378b56844c82c76c0415ec1a79fe2db867d740186c02fae2c41917a295d49a1440aed5ef3d9d7fd46815efd90fbcf8f58f562c7af42107b5)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | Xvg1KZtOIlTW5Qrwi4MX | public | contract | 1,717,208,223,874 | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-ed00216a8461 | FairlyRandom | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | null | null | null | null | null | |
dqf4byc58o | false | ADbUe3UA8VeQscv6vWhTsPwCBgi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "MRZnhj1jEFNENPY2nChRq3e5LFu2",
"label": "Kable",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Resolves May 2024 based on several days in your source",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | blue | QjLW3rdNfr5sQJPUUNSQ | public | contract | 1,717,208,532,316 | when-will-the-average-bitcoin-trans | bluefrog | When will the average Bitcoin transaction fee be less than $2.50 again? | null | null | 1,221.091259 | YES | c463df101942 | |
d9g5jhbzb1 | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What if the best meme on the Manifold discord wasn't from memefold at all?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhDRuS7qOYJ.png?alt=media&token=021a1590-d38c-48c1-8301-d33672a64cc4",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | mqCS6FG3BVQbyziEfbFd | public | contract | 1,717,209,506,546 | which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-3b9178746959 | PlasmaBallin | Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in May 2024 according to Manifold? | null | null | 1,575.612501 | NO | 3272d12afa27 | |
ir7pexmm1 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "GfK2KCXVZvnZgnnF2ZeG",
"label": "/strutheo/will-snapchat-sign-a-partnership-wi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | eQTedEJqkPFm92YesSx2 | public | contract | 1,717,209,964,065 | will-discord-sign-a-partnership-wit | strutheo | Will Discord sign a partnership with Open AI before the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
5k7qvdmbd6x | false | q2umyqspKRTNeFlcMQhjLt04A4n2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What if he turns it down?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | aashiq | ZD7bzVqwUAZEJ5SlnY3w | public | contract | 1,717,210,041,343 | if-trump-wins-the-election-will-viv | aashiq | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VZlz6mNajaBLii3A0z76YIPyr0zXxzVWxdAy8=s96-c | If Trump wins the election, will Vivek Ramaswamy be given a government position (cabinet or otherwise) by EOY 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
gbviokbf87g | false | 5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n4wue4kqhwn",
"label": "CampbellHutcheson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.ycombinator.com/biotech/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.ycombinator.com/biotech",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/biotech",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/biotech",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ismellpillows | F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | public | contract | 1,717,210,459,584 | will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t | ismellpillows | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | n4wue4kqhwn | 0.202248 | 17,902.240613 | YES | null | |
ef3dvchtm1g | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " is anyone getting impatient or can I wait for ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2",
"label": "Manifold",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " here? Pivot is becoming the Comet Kohoutek of wet squibs.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | hUhF9XO6hGhzX9WmevP9 | public | contract | 1,717,210,572,009 | manifold-big-pivot-conditional-on-a | ClubmasterTransparent | Manifold Big Pivot: Conditional on at least one user publicly quits within 3 days of reveal, what will be true? | null | null | 16.71169 | NO | 4a38738498d3 | |
vqw4diohiu | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There is no way GPT-5 is 100 better than GPT-4o.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not that it would not be significantly smarter, but evaluation on Lmsys has saturated. Most people do not ask hard enough problems distinguishing between the current frontier and next-generation models. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Sss | ywd2UEcRCoduwQYfZEmq | public | contract | 1,717,210,616,344 | will-openai-launch-a-significantly | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena) | null | null | null | null | null |
4q3lulzij52 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's back!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel | phw49HIl79ChYEsRCnHe | public | contract | 1,717,210,932,887 | do-you-want-the-number-of-traders-m | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Do you want the 'number of traders' metric back? | null | null | null | null | null |
mnf1uk24bn | false | 6lpfrAV6e2NU436bJudMfYUmjR62 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gbviokbf87g",
"label": "ismellpillows",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " How many without an app, recurring revenue, or a Medicare billing code?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Cate Hall | F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | public | contract | 1,717,210,940,176 | will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t | CateHall | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbkFF2iaZVSvQacg-LatuYo4DL4ulrd-tkVRUQSgSY=s96-c | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | n4wue4kqhwn | 0.202248 | 62,603.680768 | NO | null |
wkyyt68zcpr | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wnj0v1lz4q",
"label": "Quroe",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Votes from the in-person singers",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ian Philips | 9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA | public | contract | 1,717,210,963,459 | who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp | ian | Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition? | wnj0v1lz4q | null | 3,008.515283 | NO | u1jf6yhfn5 | |
ll0l638rqat | false | 5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mnf1uk24bn",
"label": "CateHall",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 99% of gamblers quit before they win big",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ismellpillows | F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | public | contract | 1,717,210,989,336 | will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t | ismellpillows | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | n4wue4kqhwn | 0.202248 | 17,902.240613 | YES | null | |
8r3naap5env | false | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " New polls:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-eliezer-yudk",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-eliezer-yudk",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-michael-vsau",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-michael-vsau",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-1-million-mo",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-1-million-mo",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-kanye-west-i",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-kanye-west-i",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-mark-zuckerb",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/could-you-unarmed-beat-mark-zuckerb",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Greg Rosenthal | YNsC29Fl1BlfMtidAMjB | public | contract | 1,717,211,041,939 | whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the | gregrosent | Who/what do Manifold users think they could beat (unarmed) in a fight? [Add responses.] | null | null | null | null | null | |
kv69ky9i8si | false | wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "l6cbn5j5efp",
"label": "dglid",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I’m a little bit shocked and extremely glad for your good fortune. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris V | tzw89Y25bB9gNETZvUBk | public | contract | 1,717,211,187,924 | when-will-my-son-bring-home-his-2nd | voodoo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c | When will my son bring home his 2nd sickness from daycare? | l6cbn5j5efp | null | 773.603786 | YES | 8062b5555d06 |
cqq3n5w5vnu | false | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8o0vo793vf3",
"label": "Duncn",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Ya I didn’t include the 2020s because we are only 4 years into the decade and if you add the effects the pandemic and strikes had on Hollywood, I didn’t think it was a serious contender to be the best decade in film as of now. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ReeMARKable | R7NouC55U4eDVyoKmjq1 | public | contract | 1,717,211,342,835 | what-is-the-greatest-decade-in-cine | ReeMARKable | What is the greatest decade in cinema? | 8o0vo793vf3 | null | null | null | null | |
sed04roykkb | false | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ll0l638rqat",
"label": "ismellpillows",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " wow, super interesting. a lot of the recent ones look more like supply companies, but some of the alumni look like actual biotech companies.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "my variance is still too high to wager. i have no clue how biotech works for yc if they can’t be sure if the tech is real though.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Campbell Hutcheson | F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | public | contract | 1,717,211,371,425 | will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t | CampbellHutcheson | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | n4wue4kqhwn | null | null | null | null | |
sxzop37cw9m | false | vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQjdrb_nIbv.png?alt=media&token=db090bd3-86bd-4bce-b982-5da484d0ac4f",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "nah this movie sucked ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Marnix | aQfvpH6gRmC2pHiJ8BPv | public | contract | 1,717,211,815,224 | will-unfrosted-the-poptart-story-be | Marnix | Will "Unfrosted: The Pop-Tart Story" be fresh on Rotten Tomatoes? | null | 0.013371 | 1,651.564591 | NO | null | |
gs3f6ljdzdf | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7ie6rnstyys",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952",
"label": "ManifoldPolitics",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " at this point I don't expect much but I want to atleast get this in before midnight. Can we get a ruling on this latest article? I think there's one especially compelling part which is why I bring this up.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Israeli commandoes backed by tanks and artillery were operating in central Rafah, the Israeli military said in a statement",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Commercially available satellite imagery taken by Planet Labs on Thursday also showed that the Israeli military had set up positions in parts of central Rafah",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This next one is especially compelling as it references how you said we'd want to see the Defense Dept contradicted, i.e that Israel is providing with an invasion despite the U.S. warnings:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Israel has followed through with its offensive in Rafah despite concerns from close allies like the United States that any major military assault would place civilians in grave danger",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Key words: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "has followed through",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". Not is following through, they already have. The NYT is calling out this already happened. There is no equivication in this article and I don't think any reasonable reader could take away from this article that Israel hasn't invaded Rafah.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mint | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,717,212,178,405 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | mint | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | 7ie6rnstyys | null | 2,699.214366 | YES | 74177def07ab | |
x0opdr71cq | false | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i believe the answer is probably no, due to the 100 pt difference requirement, i believe it’s 99% that gpt-5 will be released this year, 75% that it will be paid tier only, 50% there will not be a cheap gpt-5-turbo released alongside it, and some amount less that difference will be less than 100pts.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Campbell Hutcheson | ywd2UEcRCoduwQYfZEmq | public | contract | 1,717,212,525,684 | will-openai-launch-a-significantly | CampbellHutcheson | Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena) | null | 0.511767 | 0 | YES | null | |
f2s2hymajaf | false | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "z14j4wggo3k",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " look at the time zone this market is already a no it could only change if the game starts at least a few hours earlier",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Base | QI79jOI2XRSjvXWDbi3m | public | contract | 1,717,212,725,677 | what-will-happen-this-week-27050206 | Base | What will happen this Week? (27.05-02.06.2024) [You can add answers] | z14j4wggo3k | null | 2,792.388086 | YES | 9331cd405582 | |
p21f8d5phop | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gs3f6ljdzdf",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I swear the NYT are lurking this market and trying to ruin my life.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That is... still not it. They could very easily say this directly, and they don't. They could just say \"Israel has proceeded with a major military assault despite...\" or \"Israel's now-full-scale invasion has drawn criticism from...\" and this is still short of that. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,717,212,888,673 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | Joshua | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | 7ie6rnstyys | null | 0 | NO | 74177def07ab | |
wseipt2fla | false | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1",
"label": "TonyGao",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Resolves YES",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.theblock.co/amp/post/297885/biden-vetoes-bill-overturning-sab-121-says-standard-necessary-for-crypto-innovation",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.theblock.co/amp/post/297885/biden-vetoes-bill-overturning-sab-121-says-standard-necessary-for-crypto-innovation",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Charlie Bauer | xngB69oK8y0f0aIBLJQi | public | contract | 1,717,213,058,270 | wil-biden-veto-the-sab-121-overturn | CharlieBauer | Wil Biden veto the SAB 121 overturn? | null | 0.912454 | 569.326608 | YES | null | |
0h6cw1ddnus6 | false | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For me it’s close between the 1970s and the 1990s but I have to go with the 70s. In my opinion the 70s transformed Hollywood movies forever. This decade saw gritty complex story telling, the rise of the anti hero protagonist, the birth of the summer blockbuster (Jaws), the creation of the horror slasher (Halloween), the transformation of Sci-fi (Star Wars), the beginning of legendary director careers (Spielberg, Scorsese, Coppola, Lucas) and finally great actors and actresses that would go onto becoming Hollywood royalty. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Some of the movies that defined the decade: The Godfather, The Godfather Part II, Jaws, Chinatown, The Sting, One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest, Rocky, All the Presidents Men, Three Days of the Condor, Apocalypse Now, Halloween, The Exorcist, Blazing Saddles, Star Wars, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Alien, Dirty Harry, Annie Hall. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Majority of these movies would go onto inspire todays generation of directors and the way they tell stories. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ReeMARKable | R7NouC55U4eDVyoKmjq1 | public | contract | 1,717,213,191,727 | what-is-the-greatest-decade-in-cine | ReeMARKable | What is the greatest decade in cinema? | null | null | null | null | null | |
68fdfj0k4ks | false | lWvX7WwoYhVUajxiDxxHfN2kM4e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A good one to check out:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Boo Lightning | Ka5wnoccEkA1TWRKcXgR | public | contract | 1,717,213,615,443 | will-we-get-asi-before-2027 | BooLightning | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKC4X2INo4-tyTknyIWpq6Mo4Do5kOyczhqltam6O7u4wE=s96-c | Will we get ASI before 2027? | null | 0.185427 | 247.198113 | YES | null |
qrl3eg2z02 | false | P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Suppose I bet “no” and it resolves “yes”. Then I got the answer incorrect. But I bet my answer wouldn’t be correct, making my answer correct. Contradiction. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Suppose I bet “no” and it resolves “no”. Then I got the answer correct. But I bet my answer wouldn’t be correct, so my answer isn’t correct. Contradiction. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So betting “no” results in contradiction in any case. However if I bet “yes” and the answer resolves “yes” then I was correct, and I bet I would be correct. Consistent. So market must resolve “yes” QED. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Brad | AveZDSl1zGFouUSt6pHz | public | contract | 1,717,213,693,239 | will-you-get-this-question-correctl | summer_of_bliss | Will you get this question correctly? | null | 0.51 | 266.327575 | YES | null | |
zcb4xh458m9 | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "w6h47ftkq9d",
"label": "JonathanRay",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2",
"label": "Manifold",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " whoever is in charge of unranking markets can you please come lend a hand here?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,717,213,792,029 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ClubmasterTransparent | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | w6h47ftkq9d | null | 2,090.570122 | NO | 3492687fa606 | |
bkh6yx2r2hu | false | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Aaron Judge with a pretty emphatic cap on this market lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | LukeW | LHyu1SEkcdxYYK6XyuQ9 | public | contract | 1,717,213,927,877 | who-will-hit-the-most-home-runs-thr | LukeW | Who will hit the most Home Runs through the end of May? | null | null | null | null | null | |
lmhkxidf8a | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mygjt7b3ocg",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " My heart can't take this ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ | public | contract | 1,717,214,270,160 | will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha | Joshua | Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | mygjt7b3ocg | null | 2,293.523766 | YES | 52c8a526fb05 | |
gzxbg27o9ph | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "w6h47ftkq9d",
"label": "JonathanRay",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Oh it’s more than just a poll of Manifold users! It’s a reasonably well-curated multidivergent conversation, a salon if you will. It’s performance art. It has accomplished one of my goals, which was to challenge my own thinking. We have had a mod called in and several interesting tangents, including how do Brits and others communicate in a post-Kipling landscape, and who decides what is mental illness, and can intelligence be measured. Really what more do you want.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,717,214,600,106 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ClubmasterTransparent | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | w6h47ftkq9d | null | 2,090.570122 | NO | 3492687fa606 | |
4ccr62nbs7g | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "p21f8d5phop",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " well, I've now sold my position in both markets so I guess this can resolve NO. If we are being honest, I think this market was run well below the standards of an official ManifoldPolitics market. The original resolution criteria was vague so it's normal to clarify it once in the comments. That was 17 days ago when you said:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I am updating the description to clarify that this market will resolve based on the New York Times or Wall Street Journal reporting an \"invasion\" using that exact word.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "When that happened, this market should have resolved YES immediately and everyone would have understood. If you felt that for some reason it still couldn't resolve, it probably meant that there is a serious deficiency in the market that was incurable and it should have resolved N/A. Then these situations don't get worse.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This wasn't a prize market and though I lost mana on this market, I gained on the other market by selling at the top, so it's a relatively small overall loss, it doesn't upset me. But as someone who is dedicating to writing high quality markets with clear resolution criterias, and seeing Manifold succeed, I hope the lessons from this market can be taken to future ones.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mint | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,717,214,694,620 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | mint | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | 7ie6rnstyys | null | 1,277.280499 | YES | 246add140b36 | |
v9gecyut2to | false | 15UBiWb42hNqTYuIjAsrYTuSpa53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hello all!! Thank you for the bets and I have not forgotten. The gold sluice will be arriving on Monday 😔 thanks UPS tomorrow I'll be heading to mercado recreation center to do panning!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Liam | 5VxIQger5o9WXEObpfZe | public | contract | 1,717,214,716,103 | open-market-will-i-find-gold-in-cal | smithers | [OPEN MARKET] Will I find Gold in California? (And other bets for my trip to CA). | null | null | null | null | null | |
ydsfy3c5ckk | false | 15UBiWb42hNqTYuIjAsrYTuSpa53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I might not have a crew per se... But its me, my friend and his girlfriend! Soooo that might count ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Liam | 5VxIQger5o9WXEObpfZe | public | contract | 1,717,214,753,304 | open-market-will-i-find-gold-in-cal | smithers | [OPEN MARKET] Will I find Gold in California? (And other bets for my trip to CA). | null | null | null | null | null | |
mj2204v3qab | false | 15UBiWb42hNqTYuIjAsrYTuSpa53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So far I haven't seen enough of Tracy to call it miserable. That's a pretty high bar, even as a toxic New Yorker myself. I'll need to investigate more. I did have in and out. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FV8_G_AoNAD.jpg?alt=media&token=13255c32-8eea-4513-b76d-35890be30fda",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Liam | 5VxIQger5o9WXEObpfZe | public | contract | 1,717,214,830,684 | open-market-will-i-find-gold-in-cal | smithers | [OPEN MARKET] Will I find Gold in California? (And other bets for my trip to CA). | null | null | null | null | null | |
vwcdabbwikg | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I assume this is talking about CO2, but that should be in the question.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | 7dkCo6CTx9LfiHP95Z0j | public | contract | 1,717,215,347,945 | in-50-years-will-earth-have-550ppm | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | In 50 years will earth have 550ppm? | null | null | null | null | null |
n3p5kdsyf9 | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Very unlikely: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4694293-joe-manchin-west-virginia-governor-race/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4694293-joe-manchin-west-virginia-governor-race/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U | public | contract | 1,717,215,432,059 | will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent? | null | 50 | 94.465832 | NO | null |
01asp3s1wsuc | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "dice = 7 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5sKxqon3RM.png?alt=media&token=3096ec4b-4f4b-4b3a-b867-f9587131b103",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | qMtEGWTyykNo0T2Cc42S | public | contract | 1,717,215,509,534 | what-will-happen-in-may-2024-add-re | strutheo | 🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 1,058.811477 | YES | 23506a188a54 | |
8sp8p4941zn | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So to be clear, only the top 5 answers resolve YES, and all others resolve NO?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,717,215,568,830 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | PlasmaBallin | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 91.868452 | NO | j3ey9jxnir | |
9si37f8vtq | false | TzywAoqjYqfu4CvZRhQdFDtDhQm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.visor.com/post/irl",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.visor.com/post/irl",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ozzie Gooen | TqmLKCFQl8MqgoUO7ZXZ | public | contract | 1,717,215,632,043 | when-will-visor-start-deliveries-of | OzzieGooen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjAzYoG5RsGcypdfWVucG6EFCn-tfigr3Ubcp4QWA=s96-c | When will Immersed start deliveries of Visor Founder's Edition headsets? | null | null | 39.623835 | NO | 536276db3319 |
ba6x0r3xb3k | false | TzywAoqjYqfu4CvZRhQdFDtDhQm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.visor.com/post/irl",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.visor.com/post/irl",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ozzie Gooen | QwRkagOA3FFxbmYpAM02 | public | contract | 1,717,215,634,413 | when-will-the-immersed-visor-headse | OzzieGooen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjAzYoG5RsGcypdfWVucG6EFCn-tfigr3Ubcp4QWA=s96-c | When will the Immersed Visor headset ship? | null | null | 138.418199 | NO | 7c16b780ffce |
j1ir06qtnk | false | bGzeFSQonHViiUGlIQKSQCoSMuj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "did4ecwdhs",
"label": "CianMcIntyre",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Not to mention the 10% odds of Biden resigning. The probabilities on there are something else.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | not telling | xA5k0OoRuGyVgZ7TrGJ1 | public | contract | 1,717,215,752,376 | trump-vs-biden-odds-will-republican | nottelling2ccc | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0KZO9Ji8D2vJ2u2RLHgTvQg2mIqcQcJzV9rf51=s96-c | Trump vs Biden Odds: Will Republicans lead in the Election Betting Odds party average on June 15th? | did4ecwdhs | null | null | null | null |
pcjukb6uln | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4ccr62nbs7g",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Fair feedback, I'm definitely re-reading all these comments before I make another market about Israel. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The market for next month is still young if you have suggestions:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/will-israel-unambiguously-escalate",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,717,215,871,163 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | Joshua | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | 7ie6rnstyys | null | 0 | NO | 74177def07ab | |
vyn1gtk2sy | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8sp8p4941zn",
"label": "PlasmaBallin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks, I didn’t realize how much unclarity I introduced. The top 5 answers from the poll, whatever happens there, resolve to 100%. It now appears that between 10 and some large number will carry to the poll. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For the avoidance of doubt. “Elon Musk Is Under 100 Feet Tall” is disqualified from the poll and will not be further entertained.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I originally thought the answers that got to the poll — I.e. the top 10 from here — would resolve to PROB but being as it looks like no one read my mind, does this cause a disastrophe?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,717,216,031,400 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ClubmasterTransparent | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 8sp8p4941zn | null | 2,090.570122 | NO | 3492687fa606 | |
tciia5g48zc | false | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dang now i'm 99% prize points and cant bet",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | fish | y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx | public | contract | 1,717,216,101,484 | who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions | kurt | Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship? | null | null | 713.919289 | YES | 8730e267c153 | |
pqs9wul1kks | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2",
"label": "nikki",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The news stories I see are all listing Texas as officially confirmed. For example: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/28/rfk-jr-says-hell-be-on-the-ballot-in-these-states-with-more-in-the-works-his-campaign-says/?sh=3c13268b69c2",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Here's Where RFK Jr. Is On The Presidential Ballot (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "http://forbes.com",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "forbes.com",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/28/rfk-jr-says-hell-be-on-the-ballot-in-these-states-with-more-in-the-works-his-campaign-says/?sh=3c13268b69c2",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": ")",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | xmobVf0OKrQtev8ky8rE | public | contract | 1,717,216,460,737 | will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-texa | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will RFK Jr. make the ballot in Texas for the 2024 Presidential election? | null | 0.952399 | 517.906714 | YES | null |
2aqig3nsi8w | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tciia5g48zc",
"label": "kurt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " What do you mean",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kevin Burke | y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx | public | contract | 1,717,216,475,882 | who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions | KevinBurke | Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship? | tciia5g48zc | null | 38,565.315751 | YES | 734a0a905106 | |
wygxrqz0gm | false | yb4IOPO6YdNRL4WAtuwA5WKhYdy2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4ki9ynqwztl",
"label": "33cb",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The turing test is completed when you can't tell which is human between an AI and a human when speaking to them. Since it was thought up, we've learned that passing it can be done with no intelligence. So the turing test is just a first step.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Btw, Chat GPT4 passed a rigorous turing test last year.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Steve | Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv | public | contract | 1,717,216,496,688 | agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708 | SteeeveTheSteve | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLa9-cBvRgN6ekXB6VJ6csQAtnFq--2Sr7B9OnyK-CIP_ZPMPtd=s96-c | AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test] | ndd044r2bdr | null | null | null | null |
qs84bnlpfjm | false | 13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves Walmart and Grocery Stores",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDe1y76Ffns.35?alt=media&token=eaac1d9c-8626-44ab-a623-97fc933837d8",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | siraben | rymOJpkcF1uOdzBEcTJo | public | contract | 1,717,216,552,069 | what-will-be-the-next-discover-5-ca | siraben | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs4A4vujbdVB1d-wqB5ZbOQIv-B3jMwt3yjf6luBMT=s96-c | What will be the next Discover 5% cashback categories (Q3 2024)? | null | null | 605.121936 | NO | e14f560174c1 |
xarbwzaj9rh | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " yep",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,216,790,564 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | nikki | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | null | null | 2,697.218203 | YES | 8bca377e66b7 | |
li4buppzp3e | false | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2aqig3nsi8w",
"label": "KevinBurke",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Most of my net worth is newly accumulated prize point or outstanding bets. I don’t want to convert prize points to mana just to bet again so I’m kind of stuck",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | fish | y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx | public | contract | 1,717,216,794,891 | who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions | kurt | Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship? | tciia5g48zc | null | 713.919289 | YES | 8730e267c153 | |
evqtj0wbjgj | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "They've now added South Carolina as well: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://abcnews4.com/news/local/robert-f-kennedy-jr-gains-south-carolina-ballot-access-in-bid-for-president-democrat-republican-joe-biden-donald-trump-wciv-abc-news-4-2024-election-news",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gains South Carolina ballot access in outsider bid for president (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "http://abcnews4.com",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "abcnews4.com",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://abcnews4.com/news/local/robert-f-kennedy-jr-gains-south-carolina-ballot-access-in-bid-for-president-democrat-republican-joe-biden-donald-trump-wciv-abc-news-4-2024-election-news",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": ")",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | 6tH4hCf3kWtXWA64lMnu | public | contract | 1,717,216,932,992 | will-rfk-qualify-for-the-6272024-pr | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 6/27/2024 presidential debate on CNN? | null | 0.367684 | 165.896888 | YES | null |
7vekhtfqmsb | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pcjukb6uln",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'm not going to participate in that market because I feel it has some of the same failings as this market: you can never know for sure when it's happened. After a read of that Wikipedia article, especially the \"timeline\" portion, my read is that it has already happened. It also makes the assumption that at some point Wikipedia ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "should",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " update to report a full-scale invasion occurred, just like happened with the main Israel article, but I see no reason for that to happen. It's completely accurate to call whats happening an offensive and operation, and to show the scale of the operation quoting facts, like the advancement of tanks in central Rafah.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If I was making a market about this topic (which I might do) it'd probably be along the lines of: Will the U.S. claim that Israeli crossed their Red Line was in Gaza? But an issue with that market is it'd probably be a pretty low %. The advantage is, it'll never be unclear. Earlier on in the conflict I might make a market like \"Will IDF tanks enter the center of Rafah?\" because that can also be definitely determined from media reports.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mint | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,717,217,361,939 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | mint | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | 7ie6rnstyys | null | 1,277.280499 | YES | 246add140b36 | |
s1rmf6pmlpo | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Any infrastructure engineers out there?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ian Philips | tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe | public | contract | 1,717,217,630,248 | how-many-billions-of-dollars-would | ian | How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse? | null | null | null | null | null | |
u556cz5dor | false | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tciia5g48zc",
"label": "kurt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " me too, it sucks",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tripping | y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx | public | contract | 1,717,217,702,990 | who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions | Tripping | Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship? | tciia5g48zc | null | 100.279832 | NO | e5be5f8e01fe | |
rqrwk71f30g | false | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Cancelled ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83",
"label": "JoshuaWilkes",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Seems to be a problem with the tweet embed (also can't delete it on mobile lol) but here's the link: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/dearmoonproject/status/1796759847817625933",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/dearmoonproject/status/1796759847817625933",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1796759847817625933",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris Billington | Y3SsVEbwL5s4WuONrXdE | public | contract | 1,717,218,437,086 | which-year-will-dearmoon-launch-bef | chrisjbillington | Which year will dearMoon launch *before*? | null | null | 789.679814 | NO | e02d04714fa4 | |
07r2nzj1sros | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | grpFeFtlD2UhWy0RLwEc | public | contract | 1,717,218,552,945 | will-chat-gpt-5-release-before-the-95255a27c87d | strutheo | Will Chat GPT 5 release before the end of National Girlfriend Day? (August 1st) | null | null | null | null | null | |
59c5uhq4j2d | false | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "dearMoon has been cancelled:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/dearmoonproject/status/1796759847817625933",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/dearmoonproject/status/1796759847817625933",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Early resolution presumably warranted ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "? As opposed to waiting until 2030.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(I can't resolve because I newstraded on it)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris Billington | BEn8JYaCovU0YkeDl8Lr | public | contract | 1,717,218,556,524 | when-will-dearmoon-launch | chrisjbillington | When will dearMoon launch? | null | null | 1,167.669541 | YES | f4c090c2c7d3 | |
wimebnh2fhl | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n3p5kdsyf9",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " are we sure he's not just like, trivially lying?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Semiotic Rivalry | NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U | public | contract | 1,717,218,684,209 | will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva | SemioticRivalry | Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent? | n3p5kdsyf9 | 0.195756 | 459.119841 | YES | null | |
enjdn6yaea9 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lmhkxidf8a",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " And there’s 33. (Haven’t posted it yet, was watching a movie, not sure when it dropped)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ | public | contract | 1,717,218,816,967 | will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha | Ziddletwix | Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | mygjt7b3ocg | null | 8,209.364305 | YES | 341ff8d448a1 | |
5vnalmgdxn | false | hgyzihMTfFRFcvukkZDRSbrVPj23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "VP1qKxpsDBUzvkNV7352",
"label": "lastuserhere",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market gives over 10% that someone will walk on the moon this year. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l?r=U2Vjb25kSGFuZFlU",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l?r=U2Vjb25kSGFuZFlU",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Second-Hand YT | opVNeK1AhEW4SvPRQfCh | public | contract | 1,717,218,848,888 | will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-th | SecondHandYT | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbZ8vsTAzV0T8RhaPZW_u15ToZxbekuAuMlGYdMUENzrLcfJ0z=s96-c | Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]? | VP1qKxpsDBUzvkNV7352 | null | 111.997481 | NO | a014463713a3 |
0y25dytqn7z | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | Y41hRCzNBF7kDZHKtvPm | public | contract | 1,717,219,063,151 | will-wisconsin-have-a-higher-popula | strutheo | Will Wisconsin have a higher population than Denmark at the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ineknnwbyc | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | hKINg0ATcMoYrxcJsU85 | public | contract | 1,717,219,155,454 | will-lantern-bioworks-still-be-oper | strutheo | Will Lantern Bioworks close down before the end of 2028? | null | null | null | null | null | |
4wj0o7h9lo4 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | TAqdIBw3Nq8Y63bLvEM6 | public | contract | 1,717,219,259,365 | will-bryan-johnson-become-a-centena | strutheo | Will Bryan Johnson become a centenarian? | null | null | null | null | null | |
re81y2zz1h | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "pivot bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | sILDACV4r2UotDSp7b5e | public | contract | 1,717,219,285,186 | will-manifold-unban-firstuserhere-o | strutheo | Will Manifold unban @firstuserhere OR @BTE by the end of November 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ty8jqs8ure | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | IiavNByhZHklJ6F4JxoT | public | contract | 1,717,219,317,491 | will-elon-musk-step-foot-on-mars-an | strutheo | Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars AND get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away? | null | null | null | null | null | |
j43hbu523c | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | vf51Pr4kUbcMKP2Jr19K | public | contract | 1,717,219,326,558 | will-someone-be-indicted-related-to-96c6c7baec50 | strutheo | Will someone be indicted related to the death of John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
jm1ay6apgzj | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | OzYaZscphdV6E3xc67Pe | public | contract | 1,717,219,332,177 | will-there-be-a-police-named-suspec-571f6227a209 | strutheo | Will there be a police named suspect related to the death of Joshua Dean (2nd Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
56krqtffi8w | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump, its been subsidized ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | IVHHY0nWlko9MCE8aAnR | public | contract | 1,717,219,352,164 | will-a-third-boeing-whistleblower-d-d9e1164aa2e6 | strutheo | Will a third Boeing whistleblower die before the end of Halloween? | null | null | null | null | null | |
lg7vhvj2uao | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | yYEpN8G0Ytju5otGU8PE | public | contract | 1,717,219,390,605 | did-the-world-mine-more-iron-ore-in-5d17ca4a47ea | strutheo | Did the world mine more iron ore in 2024 than they did in 2023? | null | null | null | null | null | |
6vsnczej28d | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | A5J1SCjIgo1S1DAzZxqx | public | contract | 1,717,219,410,031 | will-nyc-permanently-close-another-5c0ffec20daf | strutheo | Will NYC permanently close another subway station before Russia or Russia Olympic Committee is allowed to compete again? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vkg0hzj4moe | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | wAm4SfRxw0ygZVUk2VLp | public | contract | 1,717,219,424,880 | will-elon-musk-be-found-personally | strutheo | Will Elon Musk be found personally guilty of a crime in the United States before the end of 2028? | null | null | null | null | null | |
1vkdzqqj1v1 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bumpp, subsidized ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | au3wM0sGaAGooxbq8X6v | public | contract | 1,717,219,481,677 | will-lego-release-another-new-offic | strutheo | Will Lego release another new official Bionicle set before the end of 2026? | null | null | null | null | null | |
s6gu2xd7q6a | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wimebnh2fhl",
"label": "SemioticRivalry",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Of course we can't rule that out yet. But my impression is that Manchin generally says what he means.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U | public | contract | 1,717,219,493,080 | will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent? | n3p5kdsyf9 | 0.22 | 883.941126 | NO | null |
wj99hmf5bng | false | JxsA1M9PKGRpQENQNfGoAmvsoB12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm going to resolve this as NO because it's been two months and wasn't ever reuploaded, nor was ever clarification or news ever given on the situation.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | raizel | ed73dtZpKLrRyASSYB67 | public | contract | 1,717,219,512,632 | what-will-happen-to-wizardlm-2 | raizel | What will happen to WizardLM 2? | null | null | 172.713113 | YES | e08696fb263b | |
qednc67aa3s | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | aco5A0yvcUKf5qqEucE6 | public | contract | 1,717,219,522,226 | will-a-new-official-weapon-be-added-7908cc0b731e | strutheo | Will a new official weapon be added to Team Fortress 2 before EOY 2029? | null | null | null | null | null | |
k0uuqy1amv | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "israel trip bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | plvLABNIr9sSCaWQHdjW | public | contract | 1,717,219,549,141 | will-destiny-be-featured-in-a-cnn-s | strutheo | Will Destiny be featured in a CNN segment before the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
opofs9g1jjg | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | hkmwaaZrisxgrs5Q3zGz | public | contract | 1,717,219,597,245 | will-spiderman-beyond-the-spiderver-3ca4624d82d2 | strutheo | Will Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release before the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
wst9io4u3kj | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | Ea68CD8HS9vbV7vgksAB | public | contract | 1,717,219,855,475 | will-the-federal-minimum-wage-incre-0de33dce8b7d | strutheo | Will the federal minimum wage increase before Family Guy ends? | null | null | null | null | null | |
tfkth77jwgs | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | VSTfly241abSfb1qUFEn | public | contract | 1,717,219,867,395 | will-the-alaska-and-hawaiian-airlin | strutheo | Will the Alaska and Hawaiian airlines merger be finalized before EOY 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
bpxh7lokn5h | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | nRoK5upuuqi4MJ8s4OkP | public | contract | 1,717,219,902,747 | will-there-be-a-ukrainerussia-cease | strutheo | Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hl2r7e3e6lj | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The song didn’t appear in the latest top 100, so it might be that a significant amount more activity is needed to push this to a YES resolution. Also, ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/01/things-can-only-get-better-group-ban-labour-from-using-song",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "D:ream have declined to allow Labour to use it officiall",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "y. Does that mean things will cease to get better for Things Can Only Get Better?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | ZmJx6CZSe7boyJxZmp1l | public | contract | 1,717,219,914,004 | will-things-can-only-get-better-ree | Noit | Will “Things Can Only Get Better” re-enter the UK Top 10 Singles or Album charts before July? | null | 0.754468 | 170.842957 | NO | null | |
uqw9cpggdkb | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 7O03hKa9cQzLkS60ilb0 | public | contract | 1,717,219,922,687 | will-cat-outperform-dog-in-2024 | strutheo | Will CAT outperform DOG in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ltqu6k9mj8 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump - subsidized! ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | FDXCY7HASLdylstXfF5I | public | contract | 1,717,219,933,837 | will-a-player-win-a-super-smash-bro-9c29a7998e12 | strutheo | Will a player win a Super Smash Bros Melee major tournament using Peach between Jan 1st 2020 and Jan 1st 2030? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ehcy5eouwib | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | TIXANJFLI9rgR9FC1hoJ | public | contract | 1,717,219,946,205 | will-there-be-more-than-50-cosmc-lo | strutheo | Will there be 50 or more CosMc locations (new McDonald's spinoff restaurant) by the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
5vdpzayqhom | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 5CkHZP4Uy5TShugmXllA | public | contract | 1,717,219,953,420 | will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-88888-on | strutheo | Will Bitcoin BTC be above $88888 on 8/8? (August 8th) | null | null | null | null | null | |
mw0bxg8xse | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wimebnh2fhl",
"label": "SemioticRivalry",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Also, Steve Williams has said they've been friends for decades, so it would be a weird betrayal for Manchin to suddenly jump in and run against him. (I can't seem to find the source right now though.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U | public | contract | 1,717,220,065,854 | will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent? | n3p5kdsyf9 | 0.22 | 883.941126 | NO | null |
z1m4ni883om | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 176i8UTsdiOoDehgSRek | public | contract | 1,717,220,134,299 | who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024 | strutheo | Who will win poker at Manifest 2024? | null | null | 0 | NO | 3c10ae82b1f5 | |
kxrgog94r69 | false | LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading and Active Chats with a lot of resources and help: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | sydentin | ddHWsBAyhoksIdVElOuO | public | contract | 1,717,220,151,173 | which-school-will-win-write-it-do-i | iveryskull | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c | Which school will win Write It Do It at the 2024 Science Olympiad National Tournament (Division C)? | null | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.