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r18efnjttbr
false
LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
sydentin
x4tZRhaAHU1z9U01PxV4
public
contract
1,717,220,165,070
which-of-the-following-teams-will-w-1bcbf9943984
iveryskull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c
Which of the following teams will win the 2024 National Science Olympiad competition? (Division C)
null
null
null
null
null
bj6p9b3mim7
false
LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading and Active Chats with a lot of resources and help: ", "type": "text" }, { ...
sydentin
2hhwPMRtfNppUem8MFvg
public
contract
1,717,220,202,347
which-of-the-following-teams-will-w-178123d8afa3
iveryskull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c
Which of the following teams will win the 2024 National Science Olympiad competition? (Division B)
null
null
45.604417
YES
f2d60ba91dde
gw0cti6r95e
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i have weak priors on this but i’m not sure messaging apps are good partners for foundation model companies", "type": "text" } ...
Campbell Hutcheson
GfK2KCXVZvnZgnnF2ZeG
public
contract
1,717,220,215,114
will-snapchat-sign-a-partnership-wi
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will Snapchat sign a partnership with Open AI before the end of 2024?
null
0.295479
1.390394
NO
null
rpuwvnoxi0d
false
LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading and Active Chats with a lot of resources and help: ", "type": "text" }, { ...
sydentin
zNmywwlDFxuOVKKpHeAh
public
contract
1,717,220,296,741
which-of-the-following-teams-will-p
iveryskull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c
Which of the following teams will place top 10 at the 2024 Science Olympiad National Tournament (Division C)?
null
null
null
null
null
cps3kumhb9
false
LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading and Active Chats with a lot of resources and help: ", "type": "text" }, { ...
sydentin
VRcV5wkkQ5RBhfgFp3NK
public
contract
1,717,220,327,038
which-team-will-win-wheeled-vehicle
iveryskull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c
Which team will win Wheeled Vehicle at 2024 Science Olympiad Nationals?
null
null
null
null
null
vyczh3etixj
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Nat
S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI
public
contract
1,717,220,405,098
will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
null
null
null
null
null
jmeqqb7dqne
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are people happy for me to resolve NO? I don't see any world where this gets uncancelled (and launched before 2031)", "type": "text" ...
Nat
S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI
public
contract
1,717,220,525,023
will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
vyczh3etixj
null
null
null
null
an17ef03bi
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't understand how this will resolve. Even if an event happens, it doesn't give you enough information to answer this question, we'd only get a sin...
robm
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe
public
contract
1,717,220,537,242
how-many-billions-of-dollars-would
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
null
null
null
null
null
nzws40a6i9p
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seriously too low. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,220,656,107
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
eziv2lhsqoa
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jmeqqb7dqne", "label": "Nat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Dan Homerick
S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI
public
contract
1,717,221,006,778
will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
vyczh3etixj
0.03788
1,446.877116
NO
null
mpqa6lz91
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
chris (strutheo)
ubX6ny2ocG8Tbzd14GNj
public
contract
1,717,221,572,738
which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ho
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which Hogwarts house do you sort Holden Caulfield into?
null
null
null
null
null
usvydn6rbr7
false
12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hvow7huwks", "label": "Daniel_MC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Paul
1Es6BcA3sdaqBLbKSHu4
public
contract
1,717,221,731,854
by-when-will-kenshin9000-or-anyone
Paul
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c
By when will Kenshin9000 (or anyone else) “defeat all chess bots” using LLMs? (Permanent)
hvow7huwks
null
null
null
null
06x8dyt8c9y4
false
3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bohaska
HmxGBXFi2LWjByfZjuHa
public
contract
1,717,221,737,647
will-antibombgpt-v20-be-broken-with
bohaska
https://firebasestorage.…c1a-2f61d7d0735a
Will AntiBombGPT (v2.0) be broken by the end of May?
null
null
null
null
null
aurt5r0oci
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Even if an event happens, it doesn't give you enough information to answe...
singer
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe
public
contract
1,717,222,125,869
how-many-billions-of-dollars-would
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
an17ef03bi
null
null
null
null
0tmxct6zb67
false
fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will finalize once the 20,000,000th block hits!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Caleb
zcqfBbd46c0bZ1VC9eNa
public
contract
1,717,222,126,740
is-the-20000000th-block-of-ethereum
klob
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c
Is the 20,000,000th block of Ethereum actually within 12 hours of June 1, GMT-0?
null
null
null
null
null
wqar4r8mhgm
false
fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "78buufiqbad", "label": "Mana", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Caleb
zcqfBbd46c0bZ1VC9eNa
public
contract
1,717,222,156,184
is-the-20000000th-block-of-ethereum
klob
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c
Is the 20,000,000th block of Ethereum actually within 12 hours of June 1, GMT-0?
78buufiqbad
null
null
null
null
olv47szpwvi
false
vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "She was amazing in Challengers", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Forrest Taylor
yuQ6bDzS1iICqy7PG99N
public
contract
1,717,222,413,664
who-will-receive-oscar-nominations-df4a71b57a48
TiredCliche
https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661
Who will receive Oscar nominations for Best Actress at the 97th Academy Awards?
null
null
63.455077
YES
3b0f3580461b
gkjt2iravls
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Title seems poorly worded. I wouldn't think \"mining for minerals\" would include a test sample that doesn't return to Earth.", "type": "te...
Jess Riedel
CjGTPfChBvnWAwepV1bP
public
contract
1,717,222,819,639
will-an-asteroid-be-mined-for-miner
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
a3gv0ki971l
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "important Q ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contra...
chris (strutheo)
QagfGDZR59V9hDApQYVe
public
contract
1,717,222,841,039
which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ch
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which Hogwarts house do you sort Chat GPT into?
null
null
null
null
null
cxy02nwg0lq
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "poll out: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "QagfGDZR59V9hDApQYVe", "label": "/struth...
chris (strutheo)
FTblOfCJ7QcWdS7XSPnr
public
contract
1,717,222,855,600
which-hogwarts-house-will-manifold-827a185a8ee2
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🪄Which Hogwarts house will Manifold sort Chat GPT into?
null
null
null
null
null
zitb5cjhe6i
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vqw4diohiu", "label": "Sss19971997", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Soli ꩜
ywd2UEcRCoduwQYfZEmq
public
contract
1,717,222,964,609
will-openai-launch-a-significantly
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
vqw4diohiu
null
null
null
null
ld2b2bzp9xq
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2", "label": "ManifoldAI", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
Soli ꩜
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,223,064,682
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
null
null
null
null
null
l8l86zx0vd
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vyn1gtk2sy", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Plasma Ballin'
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,223,315,593
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
8sp8p4941zn
null
91.868452
NO
j3ey9jxnir
dh2kvbtux65
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "14", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": nu...
SirCryptomind
DsZQy2YXZILFW6bbAWQQ
public
contract
1,717,223,521,235
how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-7466ab05ac98
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During May 2024?
null
null
0
NO
049ba686f9ff
ydzvrx5kdda
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
OptkXJhYk3F8ErwFXxNm
public
contract
1,717,223,690,914
will-we-learn-that-an-intent-to-kee
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will we learn that an intent to keep AI secrets private contributed to OpenAI board not saying why they fired Altman?
null
0.057143
1,533.248647
NO
null
jdkns60w0jg
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
9U6uLqyZFG9ZRNT2Jfho
public
contract
1,717,223,702,143
will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-may-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55K in May 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
puejnjeho7s
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
92yt6DE1mHBKDj0JUg4u
public
contract
1,717,223,723,961
will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-may-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50K in May 2024?
null
0.011748
707.186431
NO
null
84ts7iap6n5
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
pUW2jSyD9UU2wgpDUMXp
public
contract
1,717,223,769,180
will-destiny-talk-to-lauren-delagun-5e3843af70a7
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny talk to Lauren DeLaguna by the end of May 2024?
null
0.020848
314.204359
NO
null
g8hf55x7dbe
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
chris (strutheo)
hzyuooQ80IhrxsMA2kvc
public
contract
1,717,223,786,532
will-jimmy-carter-see-a-ceasefire-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Jimmy Carter see a ceasefire in Gaza? 🇮🇱🇵🇸🕊️
null
null
null
null
null
64ett7sjguu
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
CJdArSkcaJW3CzKqJVnQ
public
contract
1,717,223,830,774
will-the-3rd-season-of-halo-be-anno
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the 3rd season of Halo be announced before June?
null
0.01441
354.019336
NO
null
i6ztqp3273l
false
iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I never got the notification for the dodgers vs rockies resolution. \"Keenen W resolved \"... \" to No\" \"You lost 100 M, but outperformed x others\" ...
Sapphire828
rpINgNCUuLZiHkvZkGjZ
public
contract
1,717,223,843,429
major-league-baseball-mlb-regular-s
EstMtz
https://firebasestorage.…4bd-91600290a4d7
Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches
null
null
149.256497
YES
5b75c40a4a0b
6l6vb74hck7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
FuPjrH3HFV6XlQl4BKXD
public
contract
1,717,223,900,985
will-bitcoin-hit-80k-in-may-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin hit $80K in May 2024?
null
0.022195
1,527.429165
NO
null
sx6gcnl4t1
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "extend i think? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "la...
chris (strutheo)
rDDhtryBo62WhQ7T3R3j
public
contract
1,717,223,917,630
will-the-us-government-shut-down-be
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the US government shut down before the next Israel-Hamas ceasefire?
null
null
null
null
null
o9u413i183s
false
wB4jFQ7f3JeC7kfeeGBSfKbegXS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "label": "StephenMalina", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
T P
jg3qGqhmfiyzhFbZwnqN
public
contract
1,717,223,960,843
will-xai-raise-a-major-100m-fundrai
TP8ac2
https://firebasestorage.…891-2509d4470a6a
Will xAI do a large (>$100M) fundraising round in 2024?
otaanzlgwwj
0.99
4,475.409747
YES
null
u2mjlvwpbel
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
1AtgJGZqBHP9BXrvZwaS
public
contract
1,717,224,049,100
will-destiny-play-hades-2-on-stream
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny play Hades 2 on stream in May 2024?
null
0.011756
202.156178
NO
null
l063lel6lzl
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label"...
chris (strutheo)
5Xz5ZEok4Kn3GVPrpbDh
public
contract
1,717,224,122,630
will-jesus-be-more-popular-than-tay
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Jesus be more popular than Taylor Swift on a day before June?
null
0.032619
3,064.84675
NO
null
x2qqwwiu5cs
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4bLVAbNh1jaxKgksLsgL
public
contract
1,717,224,167,962
will-bitcoin-end-over-64000-at-the
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will bitcoin end over $64000 at the end of May?
null
0.954075
1,038.721271
YES
null
z1dn0h24wsc
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
hHKet6qjWn6yFIOhNzk4
public
contract
1,717,224,189,646
will-destiny-agree-to-another-bet-w
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny agree to another bet with jstlk by the end of May 2024?
null
0.044089
364.103721
NO
null
dgf28h7utoi
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolve no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
8Pa2cuxirFzmN1A8mWQZ
public
contract
1,717,224,234,171
will-bitcoin-dip-to-48k-in-may-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $48K in May 2024?
null
0.012108
303.28451
NO
null
z9y4av5xxh
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
2Da0cdXsINOIvN6SlDpN
public
contract
1,717,224,261,753
will-hasan-make-his-own-twitter-com
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Hasan make his own twitter community by the end of May 2024?
null
0.029871
410.913645
NO
null
41q2hlbtk3h
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
xkBdqF5n3suQu97LDNvq
public
contract
1,717,224,324,612
will-lav-come-on-jstlks-stream-by-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Lav come on Jstlk's stream by the end of May 2024?
null
0.061286
526.938792
NO
null
bueuufd1gn5
false
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qd7rwhxihm", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
DismalScientist
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,224,441,095
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
DismalScientist
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
qd7rwhxihm
null
null
null
null
vezper8l25l
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
CAAhI7hk8yKDQjNcANdY
public
contract
1,717,224,458,466
will-twitter-remove-viewing-post-li
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Twitter remove viewing post likes on the timeline before the end of May? (Elon: "that's definitely happening")
null
0.046268
2,065.982931
NO
null
yzj0yjgt8qs
false
AVAshetcCxQ3dtwGryHKVASwaej1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hf13wz5quu", "label": "Marnix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Rohan
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,224,657,376
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
rohanvisme
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWlYVjuKvQV6xJAihIIjyXTSmEZYNu0nfcUSAo097Usx24YiIq=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
hf13wz5quu
null
297.372237
YES
fq81si2c08
kglwifj9re
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label"...
chris (strutheo)
wxTikFWJYTb3M5oVizkm
public
contract
1,717,224,679,936
will-any-elden-ring-dlc-be-released
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will any Elden Ring DLC be released by May 31st, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
e9mmeca39yv
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hf13wz5quu", "label": "Marnix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,224,690,984
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
hf13wz5quu
null
458.690343
NO
i2t0a0mrgz
omhiqsy4ie
false
Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "px2lyheuhws", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bob Snodgrass
lKZxVmhYnGhqee49absF
public
contract
1,717,224,777,898
will-a-tropical-or-subtropical-stor-8bb87f7ad23e
BobSnodgrass
https://firebasestorage.…c00-ba7907f2cf2e
Will a tropical or subtropical storm form in the Atlantic basin before the start of the official hurricane season?
s0nj3tbsri
0.939607
0
YES
null
o10avw19oo8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no inactive creator ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", ...
chris (strutheo)
pPYlXQulgb7kc6nPD15U
public
contract
1,717,224,801,722
will-lavlunephemoid-have-her-discor
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Lavlune/Phemoid have her Discord perms reinstated by the end of May, 2024?
null
0.054945
262.698305
NO
null
xmqm93uohc
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "65jnrmihwgf", "label": "Clark", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
stefanie
GdyHJb8Lda1xdiRFp87N
public
contract
1,717,225,184,662
do-you-want-me-to-bring-my-fursuit
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Do you want me to bring my fursuit to Manifest '24?
65jnrmihwgf
null
null
null
null
1gozyn8qbl5
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qd7rwhxihm", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Chris Billington
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,225,508,982
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
qd7rwhxihm
0.601214
3,570.468574
NO
null
own4rxgx19f
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
CyfralCoot
ZzCmhyQ6jpdx35903BdP
public
contract
1,717,225,559,503
will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark-45c95f0c1e02
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
Will I be able to resolve this market N/A on?..
null
null
196.25509
YES
0a346a7a1677
5skh2ucvlk
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "75% chance of zero", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe
public
contract
1,717,225,585,502
how-many-billions-of-dollars-would
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
null
null
null
null
null
l579owi7ia
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Soli ꩜
x0aaiwo2AMAeSBwgUfVS
public
contract
1,717,225,649,275
will-openai-launch-a-model-that-is
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will OpenAI launch a new model that is only available for ChatGPT paid users in 2024?
null
0.944898
3,013.868695
YES
null
dku8exiysj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "label"...
chris (strutheo)
A798ewKPGH83kygqAWva
public
contract
1,717,225,725,212
will-elon-musk-step-down-from-being-70acd78e5777
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before June 2024?
null
0.011985
909.302511
NO
null
9rjxe3flmhj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
chris (strutheo)
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,225,745,232
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
null
null
null
null
null
8saef3vfkd9
false
xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
themightysalmon
4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI
public
contract
1,717,225,792,364
will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0
themightysalmon
https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513
Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?
null
null
null
null
null
2e01fcml04p
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI
public
contract
1,717,225,795,941
will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?
null
null
null
null
null
8lq8jqy6tia
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI
public
contract
1,717,225,833,605
will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?
null
null
null
null
null
yvsd2uol94
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why didn't this market get the free subsidy boost? Big scam that whole thing was.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
Eliza
FcwmlPxuKvVrmcdvwkyr
public
contract
1,717,225,853,341
who-will-win-unbound-gravel-2024-me
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will win Unbound Gravel 2024 (Men Elite)?
null
null
475.138241
NO
70458eeb475e
rfpix4bknxo
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
B6A7WiNiARG6aTPhCXqW
public
contract
1,717,225,899,977
538-will-joe-biden-take-the-lead-in
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
538: Will Joe Biden take the lead in the national polls in May 2024?
null
0.0526
2,070.541378
NO
null
umrtcpzitoj
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l7zes3jivn", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
9OrITykedhV3BbaevcYn
public
contract
1,717,225,928,850
will-a-market-structure-that-incent
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will a market structure that incentivize betting on long term markets be found, by the end of May?
l7zes3jivn
0.052394
76.365626
NO
null
zhn2q94yjj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
hSlzs5u4cw9apY1fTyIE
public
contract
1,717,225,979,614
will-cocoa-price-per-metric-ton-get
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will cocoa price per metric ton get higher than $12k by the end of May 2024?
null
0.24711
281.604564
NO
null
5cvnp3cb43e
false
lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9rjxe3flmhj", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Cactus
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,226,073,773
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
Cactus
https://firebasestorage.…52c-d5d42de19aed
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
9rjxe3flmhj
0.16
14.188894
YES
null
h3ksbrxxci
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "they removed that power :( so youll need mods anyway ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc...
chris (strutheo)
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,226,102,061
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
9rjxe3flmhj
null
null
null
null
g0uj625f8ar
false
lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h3ksbrxxci", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Cactus
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,226,131,198
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
Cactus
https://firebasestorage.…52c-d5d42de19aed
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
9rjxe3flmhj
0.16
14.188894
YES
null
9l6s0vpn3g9
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hsmpw879hg", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Dan
O7nk1SONGBS1JBltXwvx
public
contract
1,717,226,133,339
will-we-find-out-by-the-end-of-2024
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Will we find out by the end of 2024 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
69rm6zf0jab
0.981411
4,132.491709
YES
null
kku7ldtfwt
false
qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It appears that ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ {...
Unconditional Probability
JkSLQTvPf8STZW5EJCn0
public
contract
1,717,226,262,736
will-voiceai-have-to-release-their
UnconditionalProbability
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c
Will Voice.ai have to release their source code before June 1st 2024
null
0.042001
42.666151
NO
null
9sdhy6vhkhi
false
RAmYRLaG4rO87ISVZrcFI2GIWPJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe I'm out of the loop or something but this whole case makes no sense to me since when was hush money (while not the greatest thing to do) a crime?...
nuclear :D
HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg
public
contract
1,717,226,563,176
what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f
nuclearD
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQVbHQ0QtztcxCOMxXLf8tJn3jeRNuywP-4c_E4uspcQ=s96-c
What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?
null
null
null
null
null
lmaktf24uk
false
xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "FairlyRandom has spoken, market resolves NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
themightysalmon
4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI
public
contract
1,717,226,646,952
will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0
themightysalmon
https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513
Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?
null
null
null
null
null
6oqcylwiqlf
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
jV9y3yuh9Y302BAtkr0o
public
contract
1,717,226,695,455
will-kilauea-erupt-by-the-end-of-ma
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Kilauea erupt by the end of May 2024?
null
0.035461
410.849106
NO
null
9i8oqjomsw
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "CZ is now in custody of FCI Lompoc II low security prison. This question resolves YES", "type": "text" }, { "attrs"...
Haws
d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
public
contract
1,717,226,710,417
will-changpeng-zhao-cz-do-any-priso
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
null
0.989642
588.588064
YES
null
vrvtap251r
false
RAmYRLaG4rO87ISVZrcFI2GIWPJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have always wondered about really if it's ethical to have a kid in space imagine never seeing (or probably even being able to go to with bone density...
nuclear :D
9rEBJCAETOwl1UhZ2fjU
public
contract
1,717,226,793,959
will-there-be-a-baby-born-on-the-mo
nuclearD
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQVbHQ0QtztcxCOMxXLf8tJn3jeRNuywP-4c_E4uspcQ=s96-c
Will there be a baby born on the Moon before Mars?
null
null
null
null
null
xnjqlfcpk9h
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2ajmijwjy6h", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Fion
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,226,843,315
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
3a0eiqufwbg
null
287.857579
NO
c42572c577dd
5b6dfmj5xto
false
8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "One million is a ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Paul Benjamin (Photographer)
R57i7ZD22G0oKb41GdVs
public
contract
1,717,227,059,100
could-you-unarmed-beat-1-million-mo
PaulBenjaminPhotographer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1AhhJ_quHzrZOxShvfbdjIYp4YKf7CSu9fvZ2xr3lOHIc=s96-c
Could you (unarmed) beat 1 million mosquitos in a small room in a fight?
null
null
null
null
null
k4h0gex410q
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Joshua
aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
public
contract
1,717,227,219,577
will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
null
0.794321
0
YES
null
65x8cg5e5c8
false
HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "label": "Eliza", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Odoacre
csIy55H3ygYhZLDDfSIJ
public
contract
1,717,227,426,163
which-months-will-have-a-record-on
Odoacre
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a
Which month(s) will have a record on Mana sales going forward
null
null
118.790967
NO
0667fe558b7c
jkalazenw6
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4ZDLcHNBZNaYstKp6gPB
public
contract
1,717,227,534,769
will-any-jordanian-citizens-die-by
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will any Jordanian citizens die by Israeli or Iranian strikes before June 1st?
null
0.048989
895.381808
NO
null
9h4d76qzzft
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
chris (strutheo)
MsVM7tS8mfOypbYqMcgv
public
contract
1,717,227,566,417
will-there-be-another-gta-6-trailer
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be another GTA 6 trailer before June 1st 2024?
null
0.051928
784.273407
NO
null
850rea563sg
false
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tjo0yjj9zst", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mark Hamill
5d3u2Vm3gHswPCB2X0kt
public
contract
1,717,227,763,727
will-rep-thomas-massie-ky-endorse-t
MarkHamill
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
Will Rep. Thomas Massie (KY) endorse Trump by May 31, 2024?
tjo0yjj9zst
0.019997
28.506479
YES
null
brtfjy9fwxg
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does Stockholm's Globen count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
PJlpsiZUTEl34GLdCKY2
public
contract
1,717,227,772,338
will-spheres-like-the-one-in-las-ve
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Spheres, like the one in Las Vegas, become mainstream and be in more than 5 cities by 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
iclrvcgzarn
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
chris (strutheo)
j7h8VsY0S2sjXTNvCDYb
public
contract
1,717,227,791,669
will-palworld-be-higher-on-the-stea
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Palworld be higher on the Steam Charts Top Games chart than Enshrouded on June 1, 2024?
null
0.970483
205.389729
YES
null
drgronzac2n
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contra...
chris (strutheo)
vj8lsf9QNZjlxN8GXE6j
public
contract
1,717,227,921,266
will-sleep-no-more-actually-close-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Sleep No More actually close in May 2024?
null
0.528674
853.05986
NO
null
2s3svzw2wyy
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
chris (strutheo)
uWi5uFKPgNOJ8kUSYu8G
public
contract
1,717,228,062,036
will-the-humane-ai-pin-create-a-sig
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the Hu.ma.ne AI PIN create a significant (+25%) increase in valuation of the company by June, 2024?
null
0.086391
349.63237
NO
null
yqyy0ag3sw
false
hgyzihMTfFRFcvukkZDRSbrVPj23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Red bull isn't going to sign more than two drivers for the season, so the sum of probabilities for the season shouldn't be greater than 200%. (also the...
Second-Hand YT
qjZ0L0M5ZF3T7bMSOOWO
public
contract
1,717,228,063,266
which-drivers-will-be-part-of-the-r
SecondHandYT
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbZ8vsTAzV0T8RhaPZW_u15ToZxbekuAuMlGYdMUENzrLcfJ0z=s96-c
Formula 1: Which drivers will be part of the Red Bull Racing driver lineup for the 2025 season?
null
null
36.060579
NO
c6628fe61496
u3ddhvqo6bk
false
HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like Randy Cravens won: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [...
Theodore Ehrenborg
TQRD8KrahShooA4grVeU
public
contract
1,717,228,320,349
who-will-win-the-democratic-primary-808d8f1addc3
TheodoreEhrenborg
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c
Who will win the Democratic primary in Kentucky's 6th congressional district, KY-6?
null
null
772.24063
YES
2a8f36aa4e1e
2fvng602oyi
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label"...
chris (strutheo)
AuNNMGiLq7Qx49eX1rYI
public
contract
1,717,228,425,324
metaculus-will-x-formerly-twitter-b
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
[Metaculus] Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?
null
0.019926
152.603931
NO
null
13wwron0yihc
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "FZ3u6wWnmrVRWi46jf1BeQJWXJE2", "label": "ErwinRossen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
SirCryptomind
DsZQy2YXZILFW6bbAWQQ
public
contract
1,717,228,959,665
how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-7466ab05ac98
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During May 2024?
dh2kvbtux65
null
0
NO
049ba686f9ff
plvxsf5ixjo
false
a25wg4I4wTQdqSMRr2AyHfEzSGy2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's a tough one, I'll be honest - I see the Wikipedia map, and it indeed shows <50% of the area under palestinian control. I don't really believe all ...
Yotam Federman
sY7HwCqSOziODYvvJ2Zq
public
contract
1,717,229,366,511
will-hamas-still-rule-gaza-on-june
YotamFederman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjQYuIV4cTN7rHEjB9U6TtMHTHGA8D62fesOn323g=s96-c
Will Hamas still rule Gaza on June 1st 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
uuornui7jd
false
a25wg4I4wTQdqSMRr2AyHfEzSGy2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolution date pushed by 6 months.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yotam Federman
LKig5udXpDdBx0oa7L6o
public
contract
1,717,229,498,028
will-there-be-riots-involving-jewis
YotamFederman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjQYuIV4cTN7rHEjB9U6TtMHTHGA8D62fesOn323g=s96-c
Will there be riots involving Jewish / Arab citizens in Israel comparable to the 2021 riots as a result of 10/7 attack?
null
null
null
null
null
cnfzz8irfe8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label"...
chris (strutheo)
3cHnubxz0Z8Xny2mOrkL
public
contract
1,717,229,506,553
will-openai-release-q-star-by-june
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will OpenAI release Q star by June 1st 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
slbdyv6qdwo
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no inactive ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", ...
chris (strutheo)
znfT0Uv4op2qmEfK96rD
public
contract
1,717,229,540,850
will-there-be-a-massive-terror-atac
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be a massive terror atack with more than 1k casualties on a western country by June 2024
null
null
null
null
null
u58s79r4da9
false
a25wg4I4wTQdqSMRr2AyHfEzSGy2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Current number stands on 112 out of 252, which is 44%. Resolves NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
Yotam Federman
yf2ejc6zcqMPK8OOBrEX
public
contract
1,717,229,866,878
will-over-50-of-living-israeli-host
YotamFederman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjQYuIV4cTN7rHEjB9U6TtMHTHGA8D62fesOn323g=s96-c
Will over 50% of living Israeli hostages captured on the October 7th '23 conflict be returned or freed by Jun 1st '24?
null
null
null
null
null
3bomy7fgc8w
false
GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "should resolve to Q3", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
capy
fVtNM0QBYScLkpsj6o57
public
contract
1,717,230,063,396
for-which-month-between-now-and-jan
capybara
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660
For which month between now and January 2025 will Rishi Sunak call a UK general election?
null
null
910.833375
YES
d4fa0ddef364
h2e6n1donhl
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v2dzt0l3iuk", "label": "TrickyDuck", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mich
bF6ty16wyr4dKWVshhAu
public
contract
1,717,231,136,693
underrated-or-overrated-which-perso
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Underrated or overrated ? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are overrated this week ?
v2dzt0l3iuk
null
27.095228
YES
5631ee1cdd69
ilpyn9hecu
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For the sake of curiosity, what is being bet there ? I feared the end of mana transfers would end Manifold poker as well", "type": "text" ...
Mich
176i8UTsdiOoDehgSRek
public
contract
1,717,232,222,752
who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Who will win poker at Manifest 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
b11chlcjte
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ilpyn9hecu", "label": "Mich", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
chris (strutheo)
176i8UTsdiOoDehgSRek
public
contract
1,717,232,371,918
who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Who will win poker at Manifest 2024?
ilpyn9hecu
null
0
NO
3c10ae82b1f5
smuuwynrd9t
false
Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "FT reporting today that senior ANC figures are discussing Ramaphosa stepping down. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragr...
Bob Snodgrass
ZQQEOJDColcFphMl8Cxq
public
contract
1,717,232,521,409
will-cyril-ramaphosa-be-reelected-b
BobSnodgrass
https://firebasestorage.…c00-ba7907f2cf2e
Will Cyril Ramaphosa be re-elected as President of South Africa?
null
null
null
null
null
gzkx8hr8hnw
false
4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Other\" was correct. There were two \"Other\" responses so I didn't know how to properly resolve that and was unable to find it in the Manifold docs ...
Omar
WjBn6o34AAOPPQMjXwAT
public
contract
1,717,233,787,306
what-book-will-get-an-overall-ratin
Omar
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9OmoWVfNSAaxF2g8luaugezhLtwrB-rZDZNKIz=s96-c
What book will get an overall rating above 8.5 / 10 in the Rationality Freiburg reading group?
null
null
189.412951
YES
44e8cd9cb59e
47432ibtq0t
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Scheduled to start next week.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content"...
JRP
AXzDAe1HXPORmaiV11qY
public
contract
1,717,234,180,501
when-will-hunter-bidens-trial-happe
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
When will Hunter Biden's trial happen?
null
null
1,109.796596
YES
ef1705e8c6d5
l7yznbnmayl
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1gozyn8qbl5", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
IY
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,234,721,169
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
qd7rwhxihm
0.601214
630.102532
NO
null