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r18efnjttbr
false
LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
sydentin
x4tZRhaAHU1z9U01PxV4
public
contract
1,717,220,165,070
which-of-the-following-teams-will-w-1bcbf9943984
iveryskull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c
Which of the following teams will win the 2024 National Science Olympiad competition? (Division C)
null
null
null
null
null
bj6p9b3mim7
false
LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading and Active Chats with a lot of resources and help: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
sydentin
2hhwPMRtfNppUem8MFvg
public
contract
1,717,220,202,347
which-of-the-following-teams-will-w-178123d8afa3
iveryskull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c
Which of the following teams will win the 2024 National Science Olympiad competition? (Division B)
null
null
45.604417
YES
f2d60ba91dde
gw0cti6r95e
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i have weak priors on this but i’m not sure messaging apps are good partners for foundation model companies", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bought 1 no just to track", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Campbell Hutcheson
GfK2KCXVZvnZgnnF2ZeG
public
contract
1,717,220,215,114
will-snapchat-sign-a-partnership-wi
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will Snapchat sign a partnership with Open AI before the end of 2024?
null
0.295479
1.390394
NO
null
rpuwvnoxi0d
false
LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading and Active Chats with a lot of resources and help: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
sydentin
zNmywwlDFxuOVKKpHeAh
public
contract
1,717,220,296,741
which-of-the-following-teams-will-p
iveryskull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c
Which of the following teams will place top 10 at the 2024 Science Olympiad National Tournament (Division C)?
null
null
null
null
null
cps3kumhb9
false
LlSFT6YkVOV3seX5JHvgr1BwAeJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Science Olympiad Server With Fast Trading and Active Chats with a lot of resources and help: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://discord.gg/kkGcKuamKs", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
sydentin
VRcV5wkkQ5RBhfgFp3NK
public
contract
1,717,220,327,038
which-team-will-win-wheeled-vehicle
iveryskull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLb0-WLt5Q4AYSf-E9DVj3A8vroGmtFYAwOpRv9WKTTUOoicw=s96-c
Which team will win Wheeled Vehicle at 2024 Science Olympiad Nationals?
null
null
null
null
null
vyczh3etixj
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Well damn, Dear Moon has been cancelled", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": "t1796760324055404627", "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "tiptapTweet" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nat
S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI
public
contract
1,717,220,405,098
will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
null
null
null
null
null
jmeqqb7dqne
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are people happy for me to resolve NO? I don't see any world where this gets uncancelled (and launched before 2031)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nat
S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI
public
contract
1,717,220,525,023
will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
vyczh3etixj
null
null
null
null
an17ef03bi
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't understand how this will resolve. Even if an event happens, it doesn't give you enough information to answer this question, we'd only get a single data point on whether the actual prior spending was enough.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
robm
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe
public
contract
1,717,220,537,242
how-many-billions-of-dollars-would
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
null
null
null
null
null
nzws40a6i9p
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seriously too low. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,220,656,107
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
eziv2lhsqoa
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jmeqqb7dqne", "label": "Nat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I am, but of course I'd say that 🤣", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan Homerick
S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI
public
contract
1,717,221,006,778
will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
vyczh3etixj
0.03788
1,446.877116
NO
null
mpqa6lz91
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " can you reopen this until end of june, thanks", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ubX6ny2ocG8Tbzd14GNj
public
contract
1,717,221,572,738
which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ho
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which Hogwarts house do you sort Holden Caulfield into?
null
null
null
null
null
usvydn6rbr7
false
12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hvow7huwks", "label": "Daniel_MC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Nope, see the description. Each option resolves against the top engine at the time. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul
1Es6BcA3sdaqBLbKSHu4
public
contract
1,717,221,731,854
by-when-will-kenshin9000-or-anyone
Paul
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c
By when will Kenshin9000 (or anyone else) “defeat all chess bots” using LLMs? (Permanent)
hvow7huwks
null
null
null
null
06x8dyt8c9y4
false
3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " can you please resolve this N/A on my behalf? AntiBombGPT was shut down midway.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bohaska
HmxGBXFi2LWjByfZjuHa
public
contract
1,717,221,737,647
will-antibombgpt-v20-be-broken-with
bohaska
https://firebasestorage.…c1a-2f61d7d0735a
Will AntiBombGPT (v2.0) be broken by the end of May?
null
null
null
null
null
aurt5r0oci
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Even if an event happens, it doesn't give you enough information to answer this question", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "an17ef03bi", "label": "robm", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's a good point. Maybe a \"consensus market\" would be a better name for this type of question. The price ideally reflects what the best evidence currently predicts, and incentivizes people to get more evidence.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe
public
contract
1,717,222,125,869
how-many-billions-of-dollars-would
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
an17ef03bi
null
null
null
null
0tmxct6zb67
false
fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will finalize once the 20,000,000th block hits!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Caleb
zcqfBbd46c0bZ1VC9eNa
public
contract
1,717,222,126,740
is-the-20000000th-block-of-ethereum
klob
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c
Is the 20,000,000th block of Ethereum actually within 12 hours of June 1, GMT-0?
null
null
null
null
null
wqar4r8mhgm
false
fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "78buufiqbad", "label": "Mana", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Caleb
zcqfBbd46c0bZ1VC9eNa
public
contract
1,717,222,156,184
is-the-20000000th-block-of-ethereum
klob
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c
Is the 20,000,000th block of Ethereum actually within 12 hours of June 1, GMT-0?
78buufiqbad
null
null
null
null
olv47szpwvi
false
vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "She was amazing in Challengers", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Forrest Taylor
yuQ6bDzS1iICqy7PG99N
public
contract
1,717,222,413,664
who-will-receive-oscar-nominations-df4a71b57a48
TiredCliche
https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661
Who will receive Oscar nominations for Best Actress at the 97th Academy Awards?
null
null
63.455077
YES
3b0f3580461b
gkjt2iravls
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Title seems poorly worded. I wouldn't think \"mining for minerals\" would include a test sample that doesn't return to Earth.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
CjGTPfChBvnWAwepV1bP
public
contract
1,717,222,819,639
will-an-asteroid-be-mined-for-miner
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
a3gv0ki971l
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "important Q ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhK77J1EXz9.webp?alt=media&token=299fb3a0-bdc7-4106-9d17-f0282dd7b0f2", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
QagfGDZR59V9hDApQYVe
public
contract
1,717,222,841,039
which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ch
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which Hogwarts house do you sort Chat GPT into?
null
null
null
null
null
cxy02nwg0lq
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "poll out: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "QagfGDZR59V9hDApQYVe", "label": "/strutheo/which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ch", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
FTblOfCJ7QcWdS7XSPnr
public
contract
1,717,222,855,600
which-hogwarts-house-will-manifold-827a185a8ee2
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🪄Which Hogwarts house will Manifold sort Chat GPT into?
null
null
null
null
null
zitb5cjhe6i
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vqw4diohiu", "label": "Sss19971997", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I generally agree with you but OpenAI surprised me a couple of times so I am not ruling it out. The market is at 50% right now though which I believe is a bit too high. If you are sure it won’t happen then bet on No ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
ywd2UEcRCoduwQYfZEmq
public
contract
1,717,222,964,609
will-openai-launch-a-significantly
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
vqw4diohiu
null
null
null
null
ld2b2bzp9xq
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2", "label": "ManifoldAI", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I created a related market here which will resolve based on this market. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR", "label": "/Soli/will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,223,064,682
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
null
null
null
null
null
l8l86zx0vd
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vyn1gtk2sy", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " So what are the precise resolution criteria? Is it, \"Top 10 options by probability at close go to a poll, top 5 poll options win, and the winning poll options resolve to YES, while all others resolve NO\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,223,315,593
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
8sp8p4941zn
null
91.868452
NO
j3ey9jxnir
dh2kvbtux65
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "14", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDS4Rh9rJt_.png?alt=media&token=cc9cef2a-4beb-463f-9a9f-e818ad049e68", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fy4h6Yh3gGX.png?alt=media&token=4ecd88ee-bbeb-4ce2-8f19-858a9bac0028", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SirCryptomind
DsZQy2YXZILFW6bbAWQQ
public
contract
1,717,223,521,235
how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-7466ab05ac98
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During May 2024?
null
null
0
NO
049ba686f9ff
ydzvrx5kdda
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
OptkXJhYk3F8ErwFXxNm
public
contract
1,717,223,690,914
will-we-learn-that-an-intent-to-kee
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will we learn that an intent to keep AI secrets private contributed to OpenAI board not saying why they fired Altman?
null
0.057143
1,533.248647
NO
null
jdkns60w0jg
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
9U6uLqyZFG9ZRNT2Jfho
public
contract
1,717,223,702,143
will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-may-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55K in May 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
puejnjeho7s
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
92yt6DE1mHBKDj0JUg4u
public
contract
1,717,223,723,961
will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-may-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50K in May 2024?
null
0.011748
707.186431
NO
null
84ts7iap6n5
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
pUW2jSyD9UU2wgpDUMXp
public
contract
1,717,223,769,180
will-destiny-talk-to-lauren-delagun-5e3843af70a7
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny talk to Lauren DeLaguna by the end of May 2024?
null
0.020848
314.204359
NO
null
g8hf55x7dbe
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " need to extend i think", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
hzyuooQ80IhrxsMA2kvc
public
contract
1,717,223,786,532
will-jimmy-carter-see-a-ceasefire-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Jimmy Carter see a ceasefire in Gaza? 🇮🇱🇵🇸🕊️
null
null
null
null
null
64ett7sjguu
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
CJdArSkcaJW3CzKqJVnQ
public
contract
1,717,223,830,774
will-the-3rd-season-of-halo-be-anno
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the 3rd season of Halo be announced before June?
null
0.01441
354.019336
NO
null
i6ztqp3273l
false
iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I never got the notification for the dodgers vs rockies resolution. \"Keenen W resolved \"... \" to No\" \"You lost 100 M, but outperformed x others\" Have you started to have issues with payout on such a large market?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Sapphire828
rpINgNCUuLZiHkvZkGjZ
public
contract
1,717,223,843,429
major-league-baseball-mlb-regular-s
EstMtz
https://firebasestorage.…4bd-91600290a4d7
Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches
null
null
149.256497
YES
5b75c40a4a0b
6l6vb74hck7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
FuPjrH3HFV6XlQl4BKXD
public
contract
1,717,223,900,985
will-bitcoin-hit-80k-in-may-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin hit $80K in May 2024?
null
0.022195
1,527.429165
NO
null
sx6gcnl4t1
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "extend i think? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
rDDhtryBo62WhQ7T3R3j
public
contract
1,717,223,917,630
will-the-us-government-shut-down-be
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the US government shut down before the next Israel-Hamas ceasefire?
null
null
null
null
null
o9u413i183s
false
wB4jFQ7f3JeC7kfeeGBSfKbegXS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "label": "StephenMalina", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
T P
jg3qGqhmfiyzhFbZwnqN
public
contract
1,717,223,960,843
will-xai-raise-a-major-100m-fundrai
TP8ac2
https://firebasestorage.…891-2509d4470a6a
Will xAI do a large (>$100M) fundraising round in 2024?
otaanzlgwwj
0.99
4,475.409747
YES
null
u2mjlvwpbel
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
1AtgJGZqBHP9BXrvZwaS
public
contract
1,717,224,049,100
will-destiny-play-hades-2-on-stream
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny play Hades 2 on stream in May 2024?
null
0.011756
202.156178
NO
null
l063lel6lzl
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
5Xz5ZEok4Kn3GVPrpbDh
public
contract
1,717,224,122,630
will-jesus-be-more-popular-than-tay
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Jesus be more popular than Taylor Swift on a day before June?
null
0.032619
3,064.84675
NO
null
x2qqwwiu5cs
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4bLVAbNh1jaxKgksLsgL
public
contract
1,717,224,167,962
will-bitcoin-end-over-64000-at-the
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will bitcoin end over $64000 at the end of May?
null
0.954075
1,038.721271
YES
null
z1dn0h24wsc
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
hHKet6qjWn6yFIOhNzk4
public
contract
1,717,224,189,646
will-destiny-agree-to-another-bet-w
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny agree to another bet with jstlk by the end of May 2024?
null
0.044089
364.103721
NO
null
dgf28h7utoi
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolve no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
8Pa2cuxirFzmN1A8mWQZ
public
contract
1,717,224,234,171
will-bitcoin-dip-to-48k-in-may-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $48K in May 2024?
null
0.012108
303.28451
NO
null
z9y4av5xxh
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
2Da0cdXsINOIvN6SlDpN
public
contract
1,717,224,261,753
will-hasan-make-his-own-twitter-com
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Hasan make his own twitter community by the end of May 2024?
null
0.029871
410.913645
NO
null
41q2hlbtk3h
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
xkBdqF5n3suQu97LDNvq
public
contract
1,717,224,324,612
will-lav-come-on-jstlks-stream-by-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Lav come on Jstlk's stream by the end of May 2024?
null
0.061286
526.938792
NO
null
bueuufd1gn5
false
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qd7rwhxihm", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Can you send evidence of this? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
DismalScientist
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,224,441,095
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
DismalScientist
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
qd7rwhxihm
null
null
null
null
vezper8l25l
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
CAAhI7hk8yKDQjNcANdY
public
contract
1,717,224,458,466
will-twitter-remove-viewing-post-li
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Twitter remove viewing post likes on the timeline before the end of May? (Elon: "that's definitely happening")
null
0.046268
2,065.982931
NO
null
yzj0yjgt8qs
false
AVAshetcCxQ3dtwGryHKVASwaej1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hf13wz5quu", "label": "Marnix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.gnu.org/gnu/pronunciation.en.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.gnu.org/gnu/pronunciation.en.html", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Although I've not heard it pronounced this way in real life. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rohan
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,224,657,376
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
rohanvisme
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWlYVjuKvQV6xJAihIIjyXTSmEZYNu0nfcUSAo097Usx24YiIq=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
hf13wz5quu
null
297.372237
YES
fq81si2c08
kglwifj9re
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
wxTikFWJYTb3M5oVizkm
public
contract
1,717,224,679,936
will-any-elden-ring-dlc-be-released
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will any Elden Ring DLC be released by May 31st, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
e9mmeca39yv
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hf13wz5quu", "label": "Marnix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this is true. that's how you pronounce the animal", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,224,690,984
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
hf13wz5quu
null
458.690343
NO
i2t0a0mrgz
omhiqsy4ie
false
Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "px2lyheuhws", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i would have made the top spot with the value of my original \"no\" bets, which i sold and flipped after i saw your comment.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "but don't feel bad at all - it's a game for fake internet points. ;) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bob Snodgrass
lKZxVmhYnGhqee49absF
public
contract
1,717,224,777,898
will-a-tropical-or-subtropical-stor-8bb87f7ad23e
BobSnodgrass
https://firebasestorage.…c00-ba7907f2cf2e
Will a tropical or subtropical storm form in the Atlantic basin before the start of the official hurricane season?
s0nj3tbsri
0.939607
0
YES
null
o10avw19oo8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no inactive creator ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
pPYlXQulgb7kc6nPD15U
public
contract
1,717,224,801,722
will-lavlunephemoid-have-her-discor
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Lavlune/Phemoid have her Discord perms reinstated by the end of May, 2024?
null
0.054945
262.698305
NO
null
xmqm93uohc
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "65jnrmihwgf", "label": "Clark", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 🐾🐾🐾", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
GdyHJb8Lda1xdiRFp87N
public
contract
1,717,225,184,662
do-you-want-me-to-bring-my-fursuit
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Do you want me to bring my fursuit to Manifest '24?
65jnrmihwgf
null
null
null
null
1gozyn8qbl5
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qd7rwhxihm", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I don't think it was a press conference - he didn't take any questions.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,225,508,982
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
qd7rwhxihm
0.601214
3,570.468574
NO
null
own4rxgx19f
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCFtoBlyWiM.markets?alt=media&token=36be9543-d932-4202-912f-64d1a7eec7c5", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
CyfralCoot
ZzCmhyQ6jpdx35903BdP
public
contract
1,717,225,559,503
will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark-45c95f0c1e02
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
Will I be able to resolve this market N/A on?..
null
null
196.25509
YES
0a346a7a1677
5skh2ucvlk
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "75% chance of zero", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe
public
contract
1,717,225,585,502
how-many-billions-of-dollars-would
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
null
null
null
null
null
l579owi7ia
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " followup question: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "ywd2UEcRCoduwQYfZEmq", "label": "/Soli/will-openai-launch-a-significantly", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
x0aaiwo2AMAeSBwgUfVS
public
contract
1,717,225,649,275
will-openai-launch-a-model-that-is
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will OpenAI launch a new model that is only available for ChatGPT paid users in 2024?
null
0.944898
3,013.868695
YES
null
dku8exiysj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "label": "AmmonLam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
A798ewKPGH83kygqAWva
public
contract
1,717,225,725,212
will-elon-musk-step-down-from-being-70acd78e5777
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before June 2024?
null
0.011985
909.302511
NO
null
9rjxe3flmhj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " needs either a new date, title or idk", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,225,745,232
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
null
null
null
null
null
8saef3vfkd9
false
xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 10", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
themightysalmon
4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI
public
contract
1,717,225,792,364
will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0
themightysalmon
https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513
Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?
null
null
null
null
null
2e01fcml04p
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/themightysalmon", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@themightysalmon", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059825", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4059825", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059827", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4059827", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: 8saef3vfkd9.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI
public
contract
1,717,225,795,941
will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?
null
null
null
null
null
8lq8jqy6tia
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/themightysalmon", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@themightysalmon", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 3", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: 8saef3vfkd9, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4059827", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4059827", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature a90f0a79f5ff40d1c43ad2eec242bb5238224d693a1d60e54f38c72177335c4b86fabb71b2f624b336915c4c315d2d54034bdc339855ca6160c862c40da1d10e62e58adbf5328b54840d10f9894f7cbda10dc4504fce222a2d6ebc60a3086aa6)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI
public
contract
1,717,225,833,605
will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?
null
null
null
null
null
yvsd2uol94
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why didn't this market get the free subsidy boost? Big scam that whole thing was.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm buying No on Mohoric!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
FcwmlPxuKvVrmcdvwkyr
public
contract
1,717,225,853,341
who-will-win-unbound-gravel-2024-me
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will win Unbound Gravel 2024 (Men Elite)?
null
null
475.138241
NO
70458eeb475e
rfpix4bknxo
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
B6A7WiNiARG6aTPhCXqW
public
contract
1,717,225,899,977
538-will-joe-biden-take-the-lead-in
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
538: Will Joe Biden take the lead in the national polls in May 2024?
null
0.0526
2,070.541378
NO
null
umrtcpzitoj
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l7zes3jivn", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Probably? I don't see how the idea of \"back money by s&p500 index, and all shares are valued relative to that index, so holding shares for a long time makes them accrue in value over time\" doesn't work ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
9OrITykedhV3BbaevcYn
public
contract
1,717,225,928,850
will-a-market-structure-that-incent
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will a market structure that incentivize betting on long term markets be found, by the end of May?
l7zes3jivn
0.052394
76.365626
NO
null
zhn2q94yjj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
hSlzs5u4cw9apY1fTyIE
public
contract
1,717,225,979,614
will-cocoa-price-per-metric-ton-get
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will cocoa price per metric ton get higher than $12k by the end of May 2024?
null
0.24711
281.604564
NO
null
5cvnp3cb43e
false
lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9rjxe3flmhj", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm thinking of resolving as NA given the lack of information ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Cactus
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,226,073,773
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
Cactus
https://firebasestorage.…52c-d5d42de19aed
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
9rjxe3flmhj
0.16
14.188894
YES
null
h3ksbrxxci
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "they removed that power :( so youll need mods anyway ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,226,102,061
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
9rjxe3flmhj
null
null
null
null
g0uj625f8ar
false
lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h3ksbrxxci", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I see", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Cactus
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,226,131,198
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
Cactus
https://firebasestorage.…52c-d5d42de19aed
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
9rjxe3flmhj
0.16
14.188894
YES
null
9l6s0vpn3g9
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hsmpw879hg", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Quick bump, thanks! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
O7nk1SONGBS1JBltXwvx
public
contract
1,717,226,133,339
will-we-find-out-by-the-end-of-2024
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Will we find out by the end of 2024 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
69rm6zf0jab
0.981411
4,132.491709
YES
null
kku7ldtfwt
false
qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It appears that ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "http://Voice.ai", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Voice.ai", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " made some token gestures related to their violation of GPLv3, and may have eventually removed the illegally used source code, but did not actually release the bulk of their source code, meaning that they failed to comply with the GPL for those releases.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I will resolve this NO in 2 days, unless someone posts a source contradicting/confirming the above. If someone posts a solid source either way, I will resolve early.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This resolution is mostly based on ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://undeleted.ronsor.com/voice.ai-gpl-violations-with-a-side-of-drm/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://undeleted.ronsor.com/voice.ai-gpl-violations-with-a-side-of-drm/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " and the updates at the bottom of that article.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Unconditional Probability
JkSLQTvPf8STZW5EJCn0
public
contract
1,717,226,262,736
will-voiceai-have-to-release-their
UnconditionalProbability
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c
Will Voice.ai have to release their source code before June 1st 2024
null
0.042001
42.666151
NO
null
9sdhy6vhkhi
false
RAmYRLaG4rO87ISVZrcFI2GIWPJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe I'm out of the loop or something but this whole case makes no sense to me since when was hush money (while not the greatest thing to do) a crime?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nuclear :D
HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg
public
contract
1,717,226,563,176
what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f
nuclearD
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQVbHQ0QtztcxCOMxXLf8tJn3jeRNuywP-4c_E4uspcQ=s96-c
What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?
null
null
null
null
null
lmaktf24uk
false
xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "FairlyRandom has spoken, market resolves NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
themightysalmon
4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI
public
contract
1,717,226,646,952
will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0
themightysalmon
https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513
Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?
null
null
null
null
null
6oqcylwiqlf
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
jV9y3yuh9Y302BAtkr0o
public
contract
1,717,226,695,455
will-kilauea-erupt-by-the-end-of-ma
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Kilauea erupt by the end of May 2024?
null
0.035461
410.849106
NO
null
9i8oqjomsw
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "CZ is now in custody of FCI Lompoc II low security prison. This question resolves YES", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSieaZQ5mX1.png?alt=media&token=29d64e5e-af93-407b-a118-b2d0b4285132", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
public
contract
1,717,226,710,417
will-changpeng-zhao-cz-do-any-priso
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
null
0.989642
588.588064
YES
null
vrvtap251r
false
RAmYRLaG4rO87ISVZrcFI2GIWPJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have always wondered about really if it's ethical to have a kid in space imagine never seeing (or probably even being able to go to with bone density and all that) earth it sounds pretty tragic for a whole person's life purpose to be staying on a little moon/Mars base and keeping it running (but it might just be me idk)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nuclear :D
9rEBJCAETOwl1UhZ2fjU
public
contract
1,717,226,793,959
will-there-be-a-baby-born-on-the-mo
nuclearD
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQVbHQ0QtztcxCOMxXLf8tJn3jeRNuywP-4c_E4uspcQ=s96-c
Will there be a baby born on the Moon before Mars?
null
null
null
null
null
xnjqlfcpk9h
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2ajmijwjy6h", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I agree with everything you said except I think maybe it's true that 90% of Americans (and many other countries) are right wing. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fion
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,226,843,315
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
3a0eiqufwbg
null
287.857579
NO
c42572c577dd
5b6dfmj5xto
false
8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "One million is a ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "lot", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "...", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No more than that...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul Benjamin (Photographer)
R57i7ZD22G0oKb41GdVs
public
contract
1,717,227,059,100
could-you-unarmed-beat-1-million-mo
PaulBenjaminPhotographer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1AhhJ_quHzrZOxShvfbdjIYp4YKf7CSu9fvZ2xr3lOHIc=s96-c
Could you (unarmed) beat 1 million mosquitos in a small room in a fight?
null
null
null
null
null
k4h0gex410q
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5R2PFoa0DO.jpg?alt=media&token=10158841-67c6-4302-bbb3-6ea4a1266ad2", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems legit but I'll wait to resolve until I'm sure it's legit ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
public
contract
1,717,227,219,577
will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
null
0.794321
0
YES
null
65x8cg5e5c8
false
HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "label": "Eliza", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " is the stats page correct ? If so I will resolve NO for May 2024, closed market in the meantime", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Odoacre
csIy55H3ygYhZLDDfSIJ
public
contract
1,717,227,426,163
which-months-will-have-a-record-on
Odoacre
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a
Which month(s) will have a record on Mana sales going forward
null
null
118.790967
NO
0667fe558b7c
jkalazenw6
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4ZDLcHNBZNaYstKp6gPB
public
contract
1,717,227,534,769
will-any-jordanian-citizens-die-by
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will any Jordanian citizens die by Israeli or Iranian strikes before June 1st?
null
0.048989
895.381808
NO
null
9h4d76qzzft
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " inactive , resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
MsVM7tS8mfOypbYqMcgv
public
contract
1,717,227,566,417
will-there-be-another-gta-6-trailer
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be another GTA 6 trailer before June 1st 2024?
null
0.051928
784.273407
NO
null
850rea563sg
false
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tjo0yjj9zst", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Good man for showing some mental fortitude ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mark Hamill
5d3u2Vm3gHswPCB2X0kt
public
contract
1,717,227,763,727
will-rep-thomas-massie-ky-endorse-t
MarkHamill
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
Will Rep. Thomas Massie (KY) endorse Trump by May 31, 2024?
tjo0yjj9zst
0.019997
28.506479
YES
null
brtfjy9fwxg
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does Stockholm's Globen count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
PJlpsiZUTEl34GLdCKY2
public
contract
1,717,227,772,338
will-spheres-like-the-one-in-las-ve
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Spheres, like the one in Las Vegas, become mainstream and be in more than 5 cities by 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
iclrvcgzarn
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves yes, inactive ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
j7h8VsY0S2sjXTNvCDYb
public
contract
1,717,227,791,669
will-palworld-be-higher-on-the-stea
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Palworld be higher on the Steam Charts Top Games chart than Enshrouded on June 1, 2024?
null
0.970483
205.389729
YES
null
drgronzac2n
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQtbna-V9S9.png?alt=media&token=9c95a954-416c-480a-bded-247921ee37ef", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
vj8lsf9QNZjlxN8GXE6j
public
contract
1,717,227,921,266
will-sleep-no-more-actually-close-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Sleep No More actually close in May 2024?
null
0.528674
853.05986
NO
null
2s3svzw2wyy
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves no , inactive ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
uWi5uFKPgNOJ8kUSYu8G
public
contract
1,717,228,062,036
will-the-humane-ai-pin-create-a-sig
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the Hu.ma.ne AI PIN create a significant (+25%) increase in valuation of the company by June, 2024?
null
0.086391
349.63237
NO
null
yqyy0ag3sw
false
hgyzihMTfFRFcvukkZDRSbrVPj23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Red bull isn't going to sign more than two drivers for the season, so the sum of probabilities for the season shouldn't be greater than 200%. (also they could sign a driver not currently in the market)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Second-Hand YT
qjZ0L0M5ZF3T7bMSOOWO
public
contract
1,717,228,063,266
which-drivers-will-be-part-of-the-r
SecondHandYT
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbZ8vsTAzV0T8RhaPZW_u15ToZxbekuAuMlGYdMUENzrLcfJ0z=s96-c
Formula 1: Which drivers will be part of the Red Bull Racing driver lineup for the 2025 season?
null
null
36.060579
NO
c6628fe61496
u3ddhvqo6bk
false
HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like Randy Cravens won: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.wkyt.com/2024/05/23/ap-calls-kentucky-us-house-district-6-democratic-primary/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.wkyt.com/2024/05/23/ap-calls-kentucky-us-house-district-6-democratic-primary/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I can't seem to resolve this market now:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "APIError: High volume of requests. Please try again later.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Theodore Ehrenborg
TQRD8KrahShooA4grVeU
public
contract
1,717,228,320,349
who-will-win-the-democratic-primary-808d8f1addc3
TheodoreEhrenborg
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c
Who will win the Democratic primary in Kentucky's 6th congressional district, KY-6?
null
null
772.24063
YES
2a8f36aa4e1e
2fvng602oyi
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
AuNNMGiLq7Qx49eX1rYI
public
contract
1,717,228,425,324
metaculus-will-x-formerly-twitter-b
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
[Metaculus] Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?
null
0.019926
152.603931
NO
null
13wwron0yihc
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "FZ3u6wWnmrVRWi46jf1BeQJWXJE2", "label": "ErwinRossen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Proof here", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SirCryptomind
DsZQy2YXZILFW6bbAWQQ
public
contract
1,717,228,959,665
how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-7466ab05ac98
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During May 2024?
dh2kvbtux65
null
0
NO
049ba686f9ff
plvxsf5ixjo
false
a25wg4I4wTQdqSMRr2AyHfEzSGy2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's a tough one, I'll be honest - I see the Wikipedia map, and it indeed shows <50% of the area under palestinian control. I don't really believe all areas under Israeli control really are that; however, Hamas, even though fighting actively, is not providing services there.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Anyone would like to add some evidence before market close tonight?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yotam Federman
sY7HwCqSOziODYvvJ2Zq
public
contract
1,717,229,366,511
will-hamas-still-rule-gaza-on-june
YotamFederman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjQYuIV4cTN7rHEjB9U6TtMHTHGA8D62fesOn323g=s96-c
Will Hamas still rule Gaza on June 1st 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
uuornui7jd
false
a25wg4I4wTQdqSMRr2AyHfEzSGy2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolution date pushed by 6 months.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yotam Federman
LKig5udXpDdBx0oa7L6o
public
contract
1,717,229,498,028
will-there-be-riots-involving-jewis
YotamFederman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjQYuIV4cTN7rHEjB9U6TtMHTHGA8D62fesOn323g=s96-c
Will there be riots involving Jewish / Arab citizens in Israel comparable to the 2021 riots as a result of 10/7 attack?
null
null
null
null
null
cnfzz8irfe8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
3cHnubxz0Z8Xny2mOrkL
public
contract
1,717,229,506,553
will-openai-release-q-star-by-june
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will OpenAI release Q star by June 1st 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
slbdyv6qdwo
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no inactive ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
znfT0Uv4op2qmEfK96rD
public
contract
1,717,229,540,850
will-there-be-a-massive-terror-atac
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be a massive terror atack with more than 1k casualties on a western country by June 2024
null
null
null
null
null
u58s79r4da9
false
a25wg4I4wTQdqSMRr2AyHfEzSGy2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Current number stands on 112 out of 252, which is 44%. Resolves NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yotam Federman
yf2ejc6zcqMPK8OOBrEX
public
contract
1,717,229,866,878
will-over-50-of-living-israeli-host
YotamFederman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjQYuIV4cTN7rHEjB9U6TtMHTHGA8D62fesOn323g=s96-c
Will over 50% of living Israeli hostages captured on the October 7th '23 conflict be returned or freed by Jun 1st '24?
null
null
null
null
null
3bomy7fgc8w
false
GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "should resolve to Q3", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
capy
fVtNM0QBYScLkpsj6o57
public
contract
1,717,230,063,396
for-which-month-between-now-and-jan
capybara
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660
For which month between now and January 2025 will Rishi Sunak call a UK general election?
null
null
910.833375
YES
d4fa0ddef364
h2e6n1donhl
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v2dzt0l3iuk", "label": "TrickyDuck", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Woops", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Options weren’t clear enough for the previous resolution wave, so I let them. Seems I didn’t set up the new close date properly which made it close sooner than it should. I reopened trades, will resolve some options tomorrow and will push the automatic close date very far away so that it doesn’t happen again.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mich
bF6ty16wyr4dKWVshhAu
public
contract
1,717,231,136,693
underrated-or-overrated-which-perso
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Underrated or overrated ? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are overrated this week ?
v2dzt0l3iuk
null
27.095228
YES
5631ee1cdd69
ilpyn9hecu
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For the sake of curiosity, what is being bet there ? I feared the end of mana transfers would end Manifold poker as well", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mich
176i8UTsdiOoDehgSRek
public
contract
1,717,232,222,752
who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Who will win poker at Manifest 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
b11chlcjte
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ilpyn9hecu", "label": "Mich", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " money i think", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
176i8UTsdiOoDehgSRek
public
contract
1,717,232,371,918
who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Who will win poker at Manifest 2024?
ilpyn9hecu
null
0
NO
3c10ae82b1f5
smuuwynrd9t
false
Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "FT reporting today that senior ANC figures are discussing Ramaphosa stepping down. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.ft.com/content/264b3770-9003-4feb-8127-4ad272f680a8", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.ft.com/content/264b3770-9003-4feb-8127-4ad272f680a8", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bob Snodgrass
ZQQEOJDColcFphMl8Cxq
public
contract
1,717,232,521,409
will-cyril-ramaphosa-be-reelected-b
BobSnodgrass
https://firebasestorage.…c00-ba7907f2cf2e
Will Cyril Ramaphosa be re-elected as President of South Africa?
null
null
null
null
null
gzkx8hr8hnw
false
4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Other\" was correct. There were two \"Other\" responses so I didn't know how to properly resolve that and was unable to find it in the Manifold docs within 5 minutes so I just resolved each for 50%.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Books that crossed the 8.50 threshold were The Blank Slate and The Brothers Karamazov.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Omar
WjBn6o34AAOPPQMjXwAT
public
contract
1,717,233,787,306
what-book-will-get-an-overall-ratin
Omar
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9OmoWVfNSAaxF2g8luaugezhLtwrB-rZDZNKIz=s96-c
What book will get an overall rating above 8.5 / 10 in the Rationality Freiburg reading group?
null
null
189.412951
YES
44e8cd9cb59e
47432ibtq0t
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Scheduled to start next week.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/historic-criminal-trial-hunter-biden-probe-drug-addiction-2024-05-29/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/historic-criminal-trial-hunter-biden-probe-drug-addiction-2024-05-29/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
AXzDAe1HXPORmaiV11qY
public
contract
1,717,234,180,501
when-will-hunter-bidens-trial-happe
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
When will Hunter Biden's trial happen?
null
null
1,109.796596
YES
ef1705e8c6d5
l7yznbnmayl
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1gozyn8qbl5", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " does the absence of questions make it ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "not", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " a press conference? I don't think so...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Edit: never mind, I see dismal scientists definition below - putting that into the question description may be handy?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
IY
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,234,721,169
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
qd7rwhxihm
0.601214
630.102532
NO
null