Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_comments

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KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wonder how many motor vehicle accident sustained TBIs are from the head forcibly colliding with some external object (I.e. able to be protected by a helmet), versus from the brain colliding with the inside of the skull (wherein a helmet wouldn’t make a difference). ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
snazzlePop
qbzp0UMp450ZEymlpg6u
public
contract
1,716,317,543,482
will-i-see-anyone-other-than-myself
snazzlePop
https://firebasestorage.…4df-4312e7a7f92b
Will I see anyone other than myself wearing a helmet in a car before the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
dtwejmcpmvk
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "label": "LarsDoucet", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " You can currently buy an M1 MacBook Pro with 64 GB of RAM for under $3000. Would this market resolve as \"yes\" if such a laptop runs any model at a reasonable speed that scores higher than the first version of GPT-4 on Chatbot Arena rankings?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
ka3ADk0gihMBJCE8sBPs
public
contract
1,716,317,657,608
will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able-2146d4144ade
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025?
null
0.349757
569.373488
YES
null
26zhbi3nxjx
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d9f5fo3xu4g", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I bought 5 Mana of May because maybe what he did in May to burn the account counts as activity. Probably not but a good hedge, I get 25 Mana profit net if it's April anyway and make more if it's May.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Wei
q4VTd4bI9AhllLAhb2nK
public
contract
1,716,317,794,145
when-will-i-leave-manifold
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
When will I leave Manifold?
d9f5fo3xu4g
null
740.597752
YES
1e44874a094e
6mkfybq2xdr
false
INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kcncd6hpqr", "label": "ML12d1", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " we will see if the poll changes. Thats the fun in this whole thing. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Casey The Grip Lord
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
public
contract
1,716,317,870,906
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
CaseyTheGripLord
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
2hwvf9w37d9
null
311.523614
NO
63f8d8325f99
vlfxvgqcy6
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Numbers appear to be % of max in the 90 day period. Later periods can have different max and so could alter the denominator and cause different roundings. However the numerator should be fixed and if one is googled more than the other then I don't see how the roundings don't maintain that order or at least ensure the larger one is always the same or higher. If the number of times googled is the same or practically so then the % displayed should always be the same.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Could different times of viewing or different timezones mean the periods looked at are different? Any better explanations?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
public
contract
1,716,317,982,304
will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
uaekdu1c7pi
0.813602
359.067764
NO
null
vch5yjgwm1
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This should resolve YES, the conversion rate is no longer 100M to $1", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
yJz5aRBDwqdm9ihZ3BDx
public
contract
1,716,318,051,959
should-manifold-let-the-mana-float
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Should Manifold let the Mana float?
null
0.516026
2,795.311216
YES
null
6xlqqn5a4a9
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://imgur.com/a/OO0IFce", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://imgur.com/a/OO0IFce", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Envoy stats", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Two envoys available", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "41 influence points accumulated", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "5 influence points gained per turn", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 envoy at 67 influence points ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "6 turns to next envoy at current rate", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Buildings", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Manifold", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "City Center", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Monument", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Palace", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Granary", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Water Mill", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Campus", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Library", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Commercial Hub", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Wonders", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Oracle", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Antium", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "City Center", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Monument", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Granary", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Government Plaza", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Ancestral Hall", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Theater Square", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Booger", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "City Center", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Monument", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Craphole", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "City Center", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Monument", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Harbour", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Douchenozzle", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "City Center", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Monument", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ermagherd", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "City Center", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "text": "Monument", "type": "text" }, { "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(yeah... that wasn't much faster than screenshorts in hindsight)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Campus Adjacency bonuses", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Manifold: Has Campus", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Antium: Can't build Campus due to pop (though I think max would be 1 tile SE, city center + jungle)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Booger: Max in designated spot (+4 science from mountains)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Craphole: Can't build Campus due to pop (though I think max would be 2 or 3 tiles East from jungle)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Douchenozzle: Can't build Campus due to pop (though I think there wouldn't be any other than city center adjecency (or will the future harbour have some?)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ermagherd: Can't build Campus due to pop (though I think 1 tile east would be max, city center + turtles (harbour?))", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "type": "doc" }
komplexkonjugat
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,318,564,702
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
9zv92etugi6
null
null
null
null
2b0stx0jitu
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
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Mqrius
ws2bbQX7WVUK4T5yVD9q
public
contract
1,716,318,723,231
on-what-date-will-the-first-crewed-0c96846dd209
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
On what date will the first crewed Boeing Starliner lift off happen?
z2bkl9gi3u
null
975.058123
YES
5254a679888b
6he61qk9u27
false
WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Buttigieg. How do I add him? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Hillary Clinton
RdDaOvPvcZI0QtBFZ1oz
public
contract
1,716,319,034,596
who-will-win-the-2032-united-states-55f2f77770ba
HillaryClinton
https://firebasestorage.…d4f-ddf881047e95
Who will win the 2032 United States presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
oqbzbvwoyem
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dc4948wm0p5", "label": "Ansel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " They don't have to be trading ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "yet", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", they just have to start trading prior to the extinction of humanity. (Otherwise there'd be no-one expecting to survive for humans to sell to.)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63
public
contract
1,716,319,309,021
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
yalcrb8a6w
0.87419
0
YES
null
cty8xzby0rh
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
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komplexkonjugat
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,319,310,903
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
null
null
null
null
null
mx2npjxmsv
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
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Mqrius
I29bnrHdAsZcJ8WHOXIW
public
contract
1,716,319,386,573
will-boeing-starliner-launch-with-c
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Boeing Starliner Launch with Crewed Mission before July 2024
uni79wen9tb
0.916105
990.760849
NO
null
1zucxatcsvo
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You could make the profit graph a stacked chart like the net worth one with ranked and unranked sections", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
PR3wPMkEBAgEAQsuhzDm
public
contract
1,716,319,508,587
remove-unranked-markets-from-profit
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Remove unranked markets from profit calculation and leaderboards entirely
null
null
null
null
null
fuqzn5r2dp4
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dc4948wm0p5", "label": "Ansel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Like, if it was known that an asteroid was going to wipe out life on Earth in 2050, the \"resolves YES in 2100\" shares would be worthless, even if Manifold had Apocalypse-proofed their servers to ensure the resolution would still take place automatically.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63
public
contract
1,716,319,523,725
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
yalcrb8a6w
0.87419
0
YES
null
r0fuw17h2n8
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1st place: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/AnttiRasinen/which-country-wins-the-2024-iihf-ic", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Modrák
8I4GXuAr8OtK6TmMsItZ
public
contract
1,716,319,637,554
which-country-gets-the-bronze-at-th
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Which country gets the bronze at the 2024 IIHF ice hockey world championship?
null
null
null
null
null
tclk5xnwye9
false
HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FwqTWKDLqax.png?alt=media&token=f2c310fb-068f-4a1a-a550-72831853c63e", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Here's the pools for the grand final event in Madrid ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Julian Lees
R2PRSUJXfAh5ycST6u6K
public
contract
1,716,319,697,652
who-will-be-in-the-grand-final-even
JulianLees
https://firebasestorage.…58b-f92834687237
Who will be in the Grand Final event of the 2023/24 World Sevens Series?
null
null
67.361111
YES
9c80694560eb
eemsmdy6uz
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dc4948wm0p5", "label": "Ansel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think the bigger issue with ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "'s suggestion is that many people trade on extinction markets at their actual odds of extinction for non-profit-seeking reasons. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63
public
contract
1,716,319,908,173
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
yalcrb8a6w
0.87419
0
YES
null
en1rui8b7mj
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But who will win the bronze? Shameless plug:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MartinModrak/which-country-gets-the-bronze-at-th", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Modrák
efPFJkukeDINoWDbSiFv
public
contract
1,716,319,990,105
which-country-wins-the-2024-iihf-ic
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Which country wins the 2024 IIHF ice hockey world championship?
null
null
505.227188
NO
09f312951923
9x4c51bgqn
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "adjusted for inflation or not? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "label": "IhorKendiukhov", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
UJWudYwGAgfCa5Ywxk4W
public
contract
1,716,320,052,309
when-will-the-market-capitalization
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
When will the total market capitalization of prediction markets exceed 1 trillion USD?
null
null
null
null
null
d3pmpdg4zim
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9x4c51bgqn", "label": "Soli", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yes. It is stated in the description. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ihor Kendiukhov
UJWudYwGAgfCa5Ywxk4W
public
contract
1,716,320,075,911
when-will-the-market-capitalization
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
When will the total market capitalization of prediction markets exceed 1 trillion USD?
9x4c51bgqn
null
18.680492
YES
0682dc989e04
2sx1gjmqxnw
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Currently $192.68 and a low of $190.92, will resolve YES unless it falls below $190 at any point within the next 20 min.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trading fees were insufficient for an additional M20 in subsidies.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0JX1_3Eu5b.png?alt=media&token=cd5131e8-85fe-4c32-8506-922d2379df7a", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Unfortunately I'm low on mana right now (I donated almost all and the M10k gift didn't last long) and can't justify spending M1k for these now that it's clear they're not profitable to make, so I won't be making the next step ($180 vs. $200). Congrats to the winners over the last year or so, and feel free to duplicate them if you want. Thanks all!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel Tello
uf33loWsm4Vx3OM8EEjr
public
contract
1,716,320,378,329
will-apple-stock-aapl-fully-break-1-6af0c8e45876
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $190 before $170? (fourth round!)
null
0.989303
0
NO
null
8vauba6873w
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Has to be loans for me, there are so many interesting long term markets that I’m no longer motivated to bet on at all.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,320,683,697
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
null
null
null
null
null
mpcle6z4gh
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1vn5zo8dj89", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think this is a super cool idea! I'm going to have the house match your subsidy with 50k, and we'll def consider this market when we decide on the next set of prize point markets.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,716,321,122,780
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
1vn5zo8dj89
null
null
null
null
56hhy9wovgj
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "👀 looks like there's strong disagreement here", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
P9sLp93Ugd3a8YEeRQpC
public
contract
1,716,321,173,014
will-roon-turn-against-openai-in-20
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
o1u35p5dmsa
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,342,045
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
314.652598
NO
ac6058baf341
3k9s6yvzmmz
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029677", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029677", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029679", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029679", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: o1u35p5dmsa.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,344,487
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
vu6x4g7hpbk
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 14", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: o1u35p5dmsa, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029679", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029679", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature a737c146932fa679cb6235880afec570edda7943a156cc17e0fe9c3f513541f60612072532511fbde850ac01980bbd7d130cc307c0a5102f203971b6025f9b95dda7ecd8b2b46b98b652224f8550893b6400ff6cb0fda8e5852733279e7b3c94)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,392,671
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
l6lig52des
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6mkfybq2xdr", "label": "CaseyTheGripLord", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the question was whether it is possible for more than one answer to be picked as the correct one in this question.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
public
contract
1,716,321,401,794
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
2hwvf9w37d9
null
null
null
null
l6wt947ii7
false
QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rnugmea4r4q", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " there also is the 250 daily bonus", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaston Kessler
Dxg3vWvZuv3LqrRl2Lhg
public
contract
1,716,321,424,243
will-the-mana-supply-grow-to-1b-man
GastonKessler
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c
Will the mana supply grow to 1B mana before 2025?
rnugmea4r4q
0.412338
356.165553
NO
null
vrcfyk3e9
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "my gut says this is a 2025 thing; i put the odds at <= 30% that it will occur this year", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Campbell Hutcheson
njdHMzTWs3KaniPxatsB
public
contract
1,716,321,426,675
will-gpt5-be-released-for-public-us
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will GPT-5 be released for public usage before January 1st, 2025?
null
0.53
20.402796
NO
null
h4sn70w6rx7
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,446,829
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
314.652598
NO
ac6058baf341
qxu84i2zee
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029681", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029681", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029683", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029683", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: h4sn70w6rx7.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,452,087
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
3rtui7225ha
false
QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rnugmea4r4q", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " but yeah that's the data I planned to be using", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaston Kessler
Dxg3vWvZuv3LqrRl2Lhg
public
contract
1,716,321,456,483
will-the-mana-supply-grow-to-1b-man
GastonKessler
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c
Will the mana supply grow to 1B mana before 2025?
rnugmea4r4q
0.412338
356.165553
NO
null
7dbrgos1v6h
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 41", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: h4sn70w6rx7, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029683", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029683", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 940b82e144b8e21cf5b878de2213fd2b3f42051ca0d9a5ce49ff27a0bb95a6d3fc1ae65b69b88fc9daaef34ab4bb0bee12f1131f84fa2cd4c0bc1cab5990b84cccd461aa3c10bc97446ef86112075e4f558aa403890beb32e05972244e6f7b02)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,514,407
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
2054si2bgmc
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPOHf20slZg", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPOHf20slZg", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
0xSMW
SrU0UnpFIAntHe2zbPLU
public
contract
1,716,321,584,807
rabbit-r1-scam-what-will-coffeezill
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Rabbit R1 scam - what will Coffeezilla uncover?
null
null
null
null
null
i9dzu8lokor
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jurkq7erx", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I’ll think about this; thanks for the link.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "LLMs’ overarching preference is probable outputs, according to training data / RLHF, and they can choose from a space of possible outputs, so it seems they are agentic by definition here. Does this sound right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ismellpillows
IDzZ4oX9bgLGMxvmaPaI
public
contract
1,716,322,533,190
add-answers-what-can-each-manifold
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
[Add answers] What can each Manifold user be convinced of in the next month? (Debate market)
6qrtsunve16
null
15.468421
YES
150e3456cbb2
bgpm7q518c5
false
Disjvik10uMvgwgHmWKxCGQiBL12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q1m5v98p5j", "label": "nullnullffd1", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Then it would be", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 a dog whistle", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 “done on purpose”", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 “being sarcastic”", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 “telling it like it is”", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "5 “Would” or “Wouldn’t” be Russia", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
VNet Chrome
tPdjseGBw868qBobF6Cx
public
contract
1,716,322,674,276
will-gpt-be-said-by-anyone-in-a-pre
VNetChrome
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKhCUV1ku9tdawrtVz5spuXXiiMfObHRMeKseoBeEVh=s96-c
Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?
q1m5v98p5j
null
null
null
null
dbwdd977y6b
false
INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l6lig52des", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " When this ends. I will post a poll with the top 2 most popular questions. Ex 8-10pm and 10-12am are the most popular at this moment so if those are the most popular when I close this question then the 8-10pm and the 10-12am questions will be on the poll. Let me know if I answered your question.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Casey The Grip Lord
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
public
contract
1,716,322,786,692
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
CaseyTheGripLord
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
2hwvf9w37d9
null
311.523614
NO
63f8d8325f99
j3ttmh7vwo
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDgnF5RgqSB.png?alt=media&token=359f39e7-2bf8-4e74-8d3a-4742dbd5da85", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "👀", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
1qCevBu8ApAMeAEb6sBu
public
contract
1,716,322,837,132
is-any-nonsensical-roon-tweet-from
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Is any Silly Roon Tweet from 2024 actually cool insider info about OpenAI?
null
0.208377
162.736973
YES
null
5qyl1or13z8
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Since you posted this and voted Yes, I'm assuming you mostly agree with it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But someone wise told me recently, \"I know how popular it is to post surveys or polls or limited studies to back up comments around here, but I'll need more than that when you're making such sweeping statements.\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So... how about it? ;-)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm open to being convinced. But my first thought was that no one (male or female) enjoys being told what to do by someone incompetent.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,323,132,292
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
mr1v7w8dd1
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2054si2bgmc", "label": "StephenMWalkerII", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Part 1 of investigation", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
0xSMW
SrU0UnpFIAntHe2zbPLU
public
contract
1,716,323,189,008
rabbit-r1-scam-what-will-coffeezill
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Rabbit R1 scam - what will Coffeezilla uncover?
2054si2bgmc
null
null
null
null
8m1ph3jqzbs
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do you take creatine?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andri
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,323,229,301
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
null
0.484704
296.335519
YES
null
1bjunl4ghf4
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i9dzu8lokor", "label": "ismellpillows", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " That's correct. In retrospect I suppose this was not a great candidate for an option in this market, you'd have to convince me to change my definition of agency. (I really just wanted an excuse to talk about this subject, so thanks for engaging...)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
IDzZ4oX9bgLGMxvmaPaI
public
contract
1,716,323,276,128
add-answers-what-can-each-manifold
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
[Add answers] What can each Manifold user be convinced of in the next month? (Debate market)
6qrtsunve16
null
325.243306
NO
9664df2043b6
6wr7fbvlust
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ever, in his career? The first team he plays for? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
wXXX4I2GNbVKokGA2fnu
public
contract
1,716,323,556,474
what-nfl-team-will-arch-manning-pla
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
What NFL team will Arch Manning play for?
null
null
null
null
null
xe2h4n2c02n
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gtm4mskx79t", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " This answer is such whalebait lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,716,323,645,281
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
gtm4mskx79t
null
487.709089
YES
a7fd6e4ae5ac
19qzh1570nn
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5qyl1or13z8", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " well first of all, that ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "does", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " sound like something a wise person would say. but let's start with clearing a couple of things up?", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- I've posted stuff here I don't agree with (mostly, at all, or otherwise)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- this isn't a survey or a poll or a limited study and I didn't make the statement to begin with ;)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- I actually don't feel so attached to this (hence my little token bet I guess) so I won't argue as fervently as some other topics. happy to go into it, though! you know me... lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "perhaps most importantly:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- the tweet doesn't say that men like ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "always", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " to be told what to do by ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "anyone,", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " including someone incompetent so I think your last sentence is somewhat irrelevant. it simply says they like being told what to do more than women do (leaving aside, for now, the point about gendered disparity.) I can't tell if you wholly disagree with that or if you disagree because you've taken some liberties with the interpretation.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,323,839,161
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
m4ofnmxemlg
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x5ow09nh4h", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Starliner got delayed again. They're no longer targeting May 25th according to SpaceFlight Now (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1792964760708981124?t=g7l0_g6Ev7t2ty2YZRpgwg&s=19", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1792964760708981124?t=g7l0_g6Ev7t2ty2YZRpgwg&s=19", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ")", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Given that they didn't give a new NET, I think this may be enough that their going to miss their docking slot at the ISS. Thus my pretty big shift towards NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan Homerick
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,324,018,531
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
x5ow09nh4h
0.524197
1,741.661073
NO
null
cual6125wuf
false
Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trader bonuses going away is sad but I don't really care. Overall I like it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew Smith
0ubelcsS8xj0gjRZ9Qzy
public
contract
1,716,324,046,421
do-you-like-the-changes-from-the-ma
asmith
https://firebasestorage.…a0f-d901653a5912
Do you like the changes from the Manifold pivot thus far?
null
null
null
null
null
pjo17uodcz
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Let's go robomule!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
MEBuuLJo6K9HxVNkO4BO
public
contract
1,716,324,051,176
robotic-back-animal-which-works-on
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Robotic mule - A pack robot which works on a beach available by mid 2033
null
null
null
null
null
fkqw432w6zf
false
QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For clarification: Is it possible that the question is void by false premise, e.g. because Daniel’s equity hadn’t actually vested yet in the relevant sense?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gustavo Lacerda
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,324,109,859
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
GustavoLacerda
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
null
0.593898
131.040131
YES
null
umz2w9sbc3e
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes. Pedestrians (should) have priority in road use", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
YL9XV8ntHsOiPYPP92ID
public
contract
1,716,324,268,123
do-you-jaywalk
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you jaywalk?
null
null
null
null
null
h5a97cygf5i
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ROBOPALANQUIN GOOOOOOOOOO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
WVQfD2BHDrJKmJBKqIA5
public
contract
1,716,324,302,762
robopalanquin-humancarrying-robot-a
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034
null
null
null
null
null
qxrud3upftd
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like the page showing people's positions is bugged, or maybe just very slow to update? It's still showing me holding a YES position. Odd.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan Homerick
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,324,371,431
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
0.524197
1,741.661073
NO
null
4udeyghfelx
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qxrud3upftd", "label": "DanHomerick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " nevermind, restarting the app cleared it. Caching issue, no doubt.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan Homerick
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,324,413,061
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
qxrud3upftd
0.524197
1,741.661073
NO
null
3m52z95k2qu
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sgvrlv66x59", "label": "mattyb", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " same - mostly as a statement that cars don't belong to cities", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
YL9XV8ntHsOiPYPP92ID
public
contract
1,716,324,460,821
do-you-jaywalk
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you jaywalk?
sgvrlv66x59
null
null
null
null
f3zqnpzscn
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's all about incentives (and expectations shaping incentives) ex-ante. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If forgiveness is possible without changing incentives and expectations then it's preferable. That's rarely the case though. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
wTglEIHRfndwOyNTNd2C
public
contract
1,716,324,702,139
whats-more-important-justice-or-for
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
what's more important: justice or forgiveness
null
null
null
null
null
rydcbxqw43q
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There is no such thing as justice. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
wTglEIHRfndwOyNTNd2C
public
contract
1,716,324,737,847
whats-more-important-justice-or-for
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
what's more important: justice or forgiveness
f3zqnpzscn
null
null
null
null
kvt6vyaair
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "50 percent at 40 traders ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
XkIpOBiFpfeZn9wmbkNE
public
contract
1,716,325,073,761
will-sam-altman-give-testimony-to-e
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Sam Altman give testimony to either chamber of Congress in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
tm2f2oqigg
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’m surprised not to see liquidity subsidies mentioned.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not only because it’s cool for more active markets to have more liquidity but because it makes markets generally positive sum in aggregate meaning that more active traders could generally make Mana. Now markets are going to be negative sum in aggregate - for everything you win someone else has to lose and then you have to pay fees on top.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Simon Grayson
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,325,131,905
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
null
null
null
null
null
1f3fqqdoxk5
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tm2f2oqigg", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yep, forgot to add those. Definitely a big change.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,325,180,672
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
tm2f2oqigg
null
null
null
null
ij715hm8f9s
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "label": "dglid", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " check this out", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
kyVrTcN3a3nZhVBe53Y6
public
contract
1,716,325,419,267
will-i-successfully-learn-how-to-cr
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…497-f98cb9862793
Will I successfully learn how to create a Manifold bot and get it working by June 2024?
gbxayg1qfum
0.299875
278.289301
YES
null
w81fq9uklq7
false
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wouldn‘t a more accurate name for this market be “Does the Manifold community think Sam Altman abused his sister?“ or “Will the Manifold community think in 2026 that Sam Altman abused his sister?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Mannhart
TvgYlvYb5HX9uBzAOXnD
public
contract
1,716,325,439,638
did-sam-altman-abuse-annie-altman
JonathanMannhart
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
Did Sam Altman abuse Annie Altman?
null
null
null
null
null
em00q6486wj
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tm2f2oqigg", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Another nice thing about per trader liquidity subsidies is it makes big markets more “resistant” to large swings in price.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,325,532,574
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
tm2f2oqigg
null
null
null
null
jiicghl1raf
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mosrsr0ll", "label": "Haws", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this closes in 2024. will this resolve YES if he serves after 2024?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
public
contract
1,716,325,683,184
will-changpeng-zhao-cz-do-any-priso
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
mosrsr0ll
0.989931
1,201.273663
NO
null
2rogn49xnlk
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6xlqqn5a4a9", "label": "komplexkonjugat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thanks! yeah, screenshots maybe. I also could have mentioned I know all the cities have monuments b/c Rome. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "re: adjacency bonuses - maybe this is a mod I have, but for cities with insufficient pop, can you not click on the district type in the production list (even though you can't build it) to get the actual adjacency values?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,325,766,613
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
9zv92etugi6
null
1,187.909672
YES
1dde477200f0
r4fw7o26tsd
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m4ofnmxemlg", "label": "DanHomerick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I haven't fact-checked this, but this tweet is about that:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": "t1792993460137390112", "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "tiptapTweet" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,325,834,166
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
x5ow09nh4h
0.524197
728.412767
YES
null
xjg01j9496
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Meanwhile I'm hearing IFT-4 is NET June 1...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,325,885,098
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
x5ow09nh4h
0.524197
728.412767
YES
null
o06hfkqzp7h
false
vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Obviously not ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Forrest Taylor
cJr9XGDCpr6oaNng4prv
public
contract
1,716,326,211,003
ai-will-generate-coherent-5min-film-701f5bf4e5e3
TiredCliche
https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661
AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025
null
0.692915
1,891.103308
NO
null
ht3ruvssflc
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lun4w17k6mr", "label": "komplexkonjugat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think Alfonzo's instructions got missed? He went northwest and is likely to be murdered? 😂 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,326,275,797
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
1hjpnfxersn
null
1,187.909672
YES
1dde477200f0
fe7quusyumk
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "T-3 days til release! I'd expect another big surge of reviews on Thursday. Here's what the reviews-per-day looked like for \"Dune: Part Two\":", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FAKHrpwnQAa.png?alt=media&token=2eba0ff5-56d4-4d31-986a-9ab2f427cd9a", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As you'd expect, a bunch of reviews after the embargo dropped, and then another huge batch of reviews on the release date (03-01, the red dashed line). I'd guess the curve for \"Furiosa\" will be ~plausibly similar (although Dune was picking up reviews at a much faster rate). ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,716,326,364,281
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
6,350.783349
YES
cd4665798487
lww0aojsv5d
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Robin Hood scenario. 😁", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tricky Duck
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
public
contract
1,716,326,475,581
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
null
null
46.25017
NO
ef5acc9f7524
b2wdubtwfxu
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dx2hlxryik", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Irrelevant. US isn’t part of ICC. But anyway, I think that Netanyahu is gonna be too busy with the war and then campaigning to address Congress.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Wei
CUjdL819yyKUHQd1zAl7
public
contract
1,716,326,657,035
will-bibi-netanyahu-be-invited-to-a
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Will Bibi Netanyahu be invited to address the 118th US Congress?
dx2hlxryik
0.857501
1,302.624432
NO
null
607q6nwc6cn
false
vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The balloon head guy movie that OpenAI put out was heavily edited and CGI'ed. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.fxguide.com/fxfeatured/actually-using-sora", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.fxguide.com/fxfeatured/actually-using-sora", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Forrest Taylor
1bBSgtrgwLVKnyIn46gW
public
contract
1,716,326,919,971
will-aigenerated-content-be-good-en
TiredCliche
https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661
Will AI-generated content be good enough to make short films and miniseries of Hollywood quality by the start of 2025?
null
0.258267
5,255.419364
NO
null
2e6ng9ynp9n
false
Fxsi2an7IoMsNLyq1ODqsXZIMqC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "em00q6486wj", "label": "Arky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think that can be fixed by users providing liquidity via limit orders, but I think there needs to be functionality that enables this more easily without writing bots. I’d like to add liquidity to the AMM around my target % in exchange for spreads and fees.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Manns
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,327,036,771
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
benmanns
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKkghDuSf2qFv60YgKDe4sB83Qr5ah-gRmsZWJ4Y8cUS4oz=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
tm2f2oqigg
null
null
null
null
n20knu5cn3n
false
qnREWtzsdkOkzrR2k0jEe0EDp5j1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Somebody must have stopped manipulating this poll. No movement in quite a while", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris 🥌
eH8wgrSOxoLQdY4PISVW
public
contract
1,716,327,068,782
do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5
chris
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcjsedwards%2F0rr7gruUWz.19?alt=media&token=8dfba163-ccec-436f-8af3-57f4cf25db11
📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024? (37% DONE)
null
null
null
null
null
t1cfbybeib
false
rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm curious what \"no\" holders think might happen here. To my knowledge:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The ICC has never so far failed to issue a warrant/summons that was requested (I only checked 12 warrant requests though);", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It not yet taken longer than 106 days to issue a warrant once requested (the Georgia situation);", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "All the diplomatic pressure, manoeuvring, etc was readily apparent to the prosecution prior to requesting the warrant and yet they proceeded despite that", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The \"complementarity\" principle is already accounted for (the ICC reached out to Israel to ask if they were prosecuting these alleged crimes and Israel said no)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What path to \"no\" is most likely?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
draaglom
PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo
public
contract
1,716,327,072,234
will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
draaglom
https://firebasestorage.…a3e-1dbfa72b78a4
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
null
0.665224
5,814.00051
YES
null
vaa52m5aj9
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n20knu5cn3n", "label": "chris", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " new algorithm ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
eH8wgrSOxoLQdY4PISVW
public
contract
1,716,327,130,720
do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024? (37% DONE)
n20knu5cn3n
null
null
null
null
33mfdyyugne
false
Tcjj639yMYhe7U5Bv6eocDGYCLn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i3m0sojd9is", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I wouldn’t go so far as to invoke the prefrontal cortex since I’m sure there are exactly 0 neuro studies on this…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "BUTT as someone with my own edging training experience, emotional control is a huge part of it, that isn’t really present in basic masturbation. It’s all about holding off instant gratification, which does involve some executive control. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How are we defining gooning? My understanding of it is cumming many times in many hours, more like draining yourself rather than doing tantric edging until one big payoff ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Anna Cherry
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,327,131,437
do-you-enjoy-gooning
AnnaCherry
https://firebasestorage.…a10-a4e261428465
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
tpmrtwtlxde
false
qnREWtzsdkOkzrR2k0jEe0EDp5j1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vaa52m5aj9", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " We were averaging roughly 1 person on this poll per day, now we haven't seen anyone in over a week... really odd.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris 🥌
eH8wgrSOxoLQdY4PISVW
public
contract
1,716,327,158,456
do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5
chris
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcjsedwards%2F0rr7gruUWz.19?alt=media&token=8dfba163-ccec-436f-8af3-57f4cf25db11
📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024? (37% DONE)
n20knu5cn3n
null
null
null
null
solpdro3f5a
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8m1ph3jqzbs", "label": "andri", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I don't take creatine. I don't know much about it - from what I heard I understood it helps you push an extra few reps in? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot Davies
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,327,182,937
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
8m1ph3jqzbs
null
null
null
null
pbjj782cuu9
false
zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have a bit trouble understanding what this is after, listing suicide, murder threats, nanobot deployment, and war as somehow comparable. If a single person commits suicide and writes in his letter that AI will destroy the world anyway, will this resolve positively? What about one anonymous bomb threat? Those will surely happen if they haven't happened already.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Goodgulf
nHYxCQ3URAzfE2H7HgO6
public
contract
1,716,327,404,005
will-someone-take-desperate-measure-49cdddbe5b63
Goodgulf
https://firebasestorage.…815-4b5f7a6bf6e8
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
8v8t3cosmkt
false
tyUfMBkIfnbijZ57GFN6XBnwvKs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "anyone who votes yes is either a booster or a mark. either way you don't understand either chess or LLMs.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Liam Thomas
LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj
public
contract
1,716,327,466,834
will-a-large-language-models-beat-a
LiamThomas
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKPcSexOakctjBaZ-XczJp9RZGdS1GwYu-cNGWXbYf7=s96-c
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
null
0.446214
846.352332
NO
null
je0ardffqn
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "71rhmqjgufg", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FxWKPU3mq5U.png?alt=media&token=cf2dc1e5-5c35-4a1b-8530-f2969f58eb91", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "proof, in case mods need to resolve tmrw", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
Y8xY2r82WF6Ja262VV3G
public
contract
1,716,327,504,062
when-will-manifold-reach-9000-month
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
When will Manifold Reach 9000 Monthly Active Users?
71rhmqjgufg
null
730.213259
NO
41a2becf7284
fkkyxdh5t6
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": 1, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Manifold: build harbor two rows north, one northwest of city. Move map tack for Halicarnassus one hex west.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Builder in Manifold: drain the swamp!", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Chariot in Manifold: name yourself \"Jephro\". Set destination to the Gyatt map tack.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Settler in Ionian Sea: if it is possible this turn to disembark at the Farkleberry map tack, do so. Otherwise, set destination one hex east of Farkleberry map tack.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alfonzo: if settler disembarked at Farkleberry, move to that hex. Otherwise, set destination one hex northwest. Good luck, brave scout.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Remove G-Spot map tack.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "SS Albatross: set destination six hexes southwest.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "SS Bomboclaat: set destination four hexes northeast.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sell diplomatic favor, one at a time, to the bidder offering the largest amount of one time gold, until either we run out or no one's buying.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Send two envoys to Mohenjo-Daro.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If we can levy Mohenjo-Daro, do so. Otherwise:", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "frameBorder": null, "id": null, "label": null, "src": null, "start": 1, "title": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Offer each of these resources to Pedro, standalone, for his max one time gold offer.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "start": 1 }, "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Sugar", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Silver", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "content": [ { "content": [ { "content": null, "text": "Olives", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "orderedList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Once you know the max gold he would pay for them, figure out the fewest number of resources we would need to sell him in order to be able to afford to levy Mohenjo-Daro, and have the most gold left over. ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If there is an option that would work, sell those resources, then levy Mohenjo-Daro. ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If it's impossible to sell any combination that would make a levy affordable, then don't. ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Regardless of what happens, tell me what the offers are and how much gold (if any) we got.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "orderedList" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Don't even try to buy Isaac Newton with faith, because we can't. He'll get here when he gets here.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "orderedList" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
AmLUUJqlCfmAzlBJbVCJ
public
contract
1,716,327,535,791
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-88
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 88)
null
null
1,187.909672
YES
9312ab9d488a
k0sqfz2mvgo
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 12", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niel S
l67hFMTePYyGpbCQBnwa
public
contract
1,716,327,694,567
manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible
null
0.09
7,105.491837
NO
null
t0kh7nbrskk
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Allow users the choice to downgrade from Masters to Diamond levels during first day of new season. I would rather compete and earn rewards at the Diamond level than finish way back in the pack at the Masters level. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tricky Duck
HoDBWOiNZ6iulWTJDmGO
public
contract
1,716,327,732,703
how-can-manifold-improve
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
How can Manifold improve?
null
null
null
null
null
tdbzw37s34g
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2", "label": "ManifoldAI", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO ( ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " )", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
fHWFnz72Zr28gYy7GDlQ
public
contract
1,716,327,760,593
when-will-ilya-announce-where-he-wi
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
When will Ilya announce where he will work next?
null
null
322.127111
NO
9a4f2f3ee70a
56c6xd6nobs
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "solpdro3f5a", "label": "ElliotDavies", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Helps build muscle and strength yeah", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andri
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,327,779,681
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
8m1ph3jqzbs
0.484704
296.335519
YES
null
4rvoajsq5kb
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/NielS", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@NielS", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 12, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029895", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029895", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029897", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029897", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: k0sqfz2mvgo.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
l67hFMTePYyGpbCQBnwa
public
contract
1,716,327,883,668
manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible
null
null
null
null
null
e9ndw2w88hp
false
KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": 1, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do the 100k people have to gather all at once or would a \"distributed\" protest across multiple cities count?", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will the lower, median or higher estimate for attendance count? Often times organizers claim up to 3x more attendees than how many people showed up in practice.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does \"AI\" have to be the primary idea protested at the event? I.e. if there's 200k people protesting against Trump and one of the accusations is (say) him using a Deepfake version of himself for campaigning, will that count as \"anti-AI\"? Or does \"AI\" have to be the primary, core reason for the protest?", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will protests against AI taking jobs count - i.e. a protest by Ford workers against new robots at their factory? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please edit in the answers to the question itself to avoid future disputes.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "orderedList" } ], "type": "doc" }
nsokolsky
RwF7zWPBVLYKlmTavXUh
public
contract
1,716,327,893,941
we-will-see-a-100k-person-antiai-pr
nsokolsky
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-0bf53e95c42d
We will see a 100k person anti-AI protest before 2030
null
0.626654
3,038.784981
NO
null
n1lc9w5w3aj
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/NielS", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@NielS", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 5", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: k0sqfz2mvgo, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029897", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029897", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 8b631d459cae8f88ef6194c360771b094b857a0f0a9b1ea843b06f469b36114a477847ce4138a141cc8aefca3a492a5815fe4ce9af4bc0a8116024a1c1a216557e02306c2471c1fd73102e4ec19921cec2ba8de1c3c672b7959568a101d43b52)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
l67hFMTePYyGpbCQBnwa
public
contract
1,716,327,933,073
manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible
null
null
null
null
null
ljpmgoawtq
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pNeeWxqGLTWoSNuld4hS1UxrFRr2", "label": "CooperDrbal", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thunder, nuggets, cavs, bucks all resolve NO. they have been eliminated ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
Ma0dKTwgUugrONk3mH0A
public
contract
1,716,328,021,276
who-is-going-to-win-the-nba-champio
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
who is going to win the nba championship?
null
null
206.982062
NO
2a8fa2b7c151
fm6zldskwgp
false
KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Close to reopening: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.dailypress.com/2024/05/21/key-bridge-400-foot-channel/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.dailypress.com/2024/05/21/key-bridge-400-foot-channel/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nsokolsky
hRTc0hK0Ttx28UlhuhaY
public
contract
1,716,328,095,235
will-the-port-of-baltimore-restore
nsokolsky
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-0bf53e95c42d
Will the port of Baltimore restore normal operations by the end of 2024?
null
0.842425
87.623161
YES
null
ceezqq5bflc
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 52", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niel S
bqahXkqJEdus1FJ7Yzia
public
contract
1,716,328,135,704
manifold-lottery-tickets-50x-return
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
null
0.033624
32,900.139569
NO
null
vt7j6nrkqim
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/NielS", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@NielS", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 52, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029904", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029904", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029906", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029906", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: ceezqq5bflc.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
bqahXkqJEdus1FJ7Yzia
public
contract
1,716,328,142,366
manifold-lottery-tickets-50x-return
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
null
null
null
null
null
k7qfnezrr2n
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pbjj782cuu9", "label": "JuhoPennanen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 1. Yes. 2. No. I agree that technically it is a terrorism threat, but it is not a reliable threat. This should be added to the description.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ihor Kendiukhov
nHYxCQ3URAzfE2H7HgO6
public
contract
1,716,328,153,287
will-someone-take-desperate-measure-49cdddbe5b63
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?
pbjj782cuu9
0.499955
19.234326
YES
null
73wityyxz3l
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/NielS", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@NielS", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 43", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: ceezqq5bflc, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4029906", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4029906", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature a6bf6d82e6507d86703257068cbf6e91a49aa7bb571770ae9c649b7d4352d31dd2162632c3dbe754377ca395e56ecfed06839fda9d39760aa1a7731bd200dca67e0e86da430adcb34094cd85a6964428c805293cfdc81d9eb158b522dbdcef8e)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
bqahXkqJEdus1FJ7Yzia
public
contract
1,716,328,204,283
manifold-lottery-tickets-50x-return
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
null
null
null
null
null
wbqpxaxhl9
false
rDzj1HmvNmYyIpU5rAmWliVb9rO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Washington on top", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Yang
qW7FqLBslGcNlS1XKrgF
public
contract
1,716,328,334,696
what-team-will-win-arml-top-score-a
KevinYang271
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLIkMMcg3rsht_UCyiUiRgGH7g1K6PbEcUMZMt04OOutorbm6lF=s96-c
What team will win ARML (top score among both divisions)?
null
null
720.309717
YES
7c962f2ee307
pz0o5ddpxdf
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "26zhbi3nxjx", "label": "nathanwei", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " What did he do in may and how do you know?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
q4VTd4bI9AhllLAhb2nK
public
contract
1,716,328,446,171
when-will-i-leave-manifold
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
When will I leave Manifold?
d9f5fo3xu4g
null
584.710919
YES
1e44874a094e
fp1gwf0n0nq
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES. trader bonuses have been fully removed, as of the may 16th update.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
v9BeWUgero8TTWSjxYMW
public
contract
1,716,328,459,415
will-the-trader-bonus-be-reduced-ag
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the trader bonus be reduced again?
null
0.961333
435.489561
YES
null