id
stringlengths
8
13
isApi
bool
2 classes
userId
stringlengths
28
28
content
dict
userName
stringlengths
1
30
contractId
stringlengths
9
20
visibility
stringclasses
2 values
commentType
stringclasses
1 value
createdTime
int64
1,716B
1,720B
contractSlug
stringlengths
5
48
userUsername
stringlengths
1
25
userAvatarUrl
stringlengths
50
1.03k
contractQuestion
stringlengths
2
240
replyToCommentId
stringlengths
8
20
commentorPositionProb
float64
0
50
commentorPositionShares
float64
-0
6.25M
commentorPositionOutcome
stringclasses
2 values
commentorPositionAnswerId
stringlengths
9
12
f6v36tlbsvf
false
KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wonder how many motor vehicle accident sustained TBIs are from the head forcibly colliding with some external object (I.e. able to be protected by a ...
snazzlePop
qbzp0UMp450ZEymlpg6u
public
contract
1,716,317,543,482
will-i-see-anyone-other-than-myself
snazzlePop
https://firebasestorage.…4df-4312e7a7f92b
Will I see anyone other than myself wearing a helmet in a car before the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
dtwejmcpmvk
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "label": "LarsDoucet", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
Soli ꩜
ka3ADk0gihMBJCE8sBPs
public
contract
1,716,317,657,608
will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able-2146d4144ade
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025?
null
0.349757
569.373488
YES
null
26zhbi3nxjx
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d9f5fo3xu4g", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Nathan Wei
q4VTd4bI9AhllLAhb2nK
public
contract
1,716,317,794,145
when-will-i-leave-manifold
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
When will I leave Manifold?
d9f5fo3xu4g
null
740.597752
YES
1e44874a094e
6mkfybq2xdr
false
INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kcncd6hpqr", "label": "ML12d1", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Casey The Grip Lord
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
public
contract
1,716,317,870,906
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
CaseyTheGripLord
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
2hwvf9w37d9
null
311.523614
NO
63f8d8325f99
vlfxvgqcy6
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Numbers appear to be % of max in the 90 day period. Later periods can have different max and so could alter the denominator and cause different roundin...
Christopher Randles
aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
public
contract
1,716,317,982,304
will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
uaekdu1c7pi
0.813602
359.067764
NO
null
vch5yjgwm1
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This should resolve YES, the conversion rate is no longer 100M to $1", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ],...
Arky
yJz5aRBDwqdm9ihZ3BDx
public
contract
1,716,318,051,959
should-manifold-let-the-mana-float
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Should Manifold let the Mana float?
null
0.516026
2,795.311216
YES
null
6xlqqn5a4a9
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
komplexkonjugat
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,318,564,702
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
9zv92etugi6
null
null
null
null
2b0stx0jitu
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vildnuadam", "label": "GordanKnott", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mqrius
ws2bbQX7WVUK4T5yVD9q
public
contract
1,716,318,723,231
on-what-date-will-the-first-crewed-0c96846dd209
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
On what date will the first crewed Boeing Starliner lift off happen?
z2bkl9gi3u
null
975.058123
YES
5254a679888b
6he61qk9u27
false
WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Buttigieg. How do I add him? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Hillary Clinton
RdDaOvPvcZI0QtBFZ1oz
public
contract
1,716,319,034,596
who-will-win-the-2032-united-states-55f2f77770ba
HillaryClinton
https://firebasestorage.…d4f-ddf881047e95
Who will win the 2032 United States presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
oqbzbvwoyem
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dc4948wm0p5", "label": "Ansel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Muga Sofer
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63
public
contract
1,716,319,309,021
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
yalcrb8a6w
0.87419
0
YES
null
cty8xzby0rh
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Next turn:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text...
komplexkonjugat
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,319,310,903
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
null
null
null
null
null
mx2npjxmsv
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Mqrius
I29bnrHdAsZcJ8WHOXIW
public
contract
1,716,319,386,573
will-boeing-starliner-launch-with-c
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Boeing Starliner Launch with Crewed Mission before July 2024
uni79wen9tb
0.916105
990.760849
NO
null
1zucxatcsvo
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You could make the profit graph a stacked chart like the net worth one with ranked and unranked sections", "type": "text" } ], ...
Arky
PR3wPMkEBAgEAQsuhzDm
public
contract
1,716,319,508,587
remove-unranked-markets-from-profit
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Remove unranked markets from profit calculation and leaderboards entirely
null
null
null
null
null
fuqzn5r2dp4
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dc4948wm0p5", "label": "Ansel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Muga Sofer
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63
public
contract
1,716,319,523,725
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
yalcrb8a6w
0.87419
0
YES
null
r0fuw17h2n8
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1st place: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contrac...
Martin Modrák
8I4GXuAr8OtK6TmMsItZ
public
contract
1,716,319,637,554
which-country-gets-the-bronze-at-th
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Which country gets the bronze at the 2024 IIHF ice hockey world championship?
null
null
null
null
null
tclk5xnwye9
false
HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Julian Lees
R2PRSUJXfAh5ycST6u6K
public
contract
1,716,319,697,652
who-will-be-in-the-grand-final-even
JulianLees
https://firebasestorage.…58b-f92834687237
Who will be in the Grand Final event of the 2023/24 World Sevens Series?
null
null
67.361111
YES
9c80694560eb
eemsmdy6uz
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dc4948wm0p5", "label": "Ansel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Muga Sofer
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63
public
contract
1,716,319,908,173
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
yalcrb8a6w
0.87419
0
YES
null
en1rui8b7mj
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But who will win the bronze? Shameless plug:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { ...
Martin Modrák
efPFJkukeDINoWDbSiFv
public
contract
1,716,319,990,105
which-country-wins-the-2024-iihf-ic
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Which country wins the 2024 IIHF ice hockey world championship?
null
null
505.227188
NO
09f312951923
9x4c51bgqn
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "adjusted for inflation or not? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", ...
Soli ꩜
UJWudYwGAgfCa5Ywxk4W
public
contract
1,716,320,052,309
when-will-the-market-capitalization
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
When will the total market capitalization of prediction markets exceed 1 trillion USD?
null
null
null
null
null
d3pmpdg4zim
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9x4c51bgqn", "label": "Soli", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Ihor Kendiukhov
UJWudYwGAgfCa5Ywxk4W
public
contract
1,716,320,075,911
when-will-the-market-capitalization
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
When will the total market capitalization of prediction markets exceed 1 trillion USD?
9x4c51bgqn
null
18.680492
YES
0682dc989e04
2sx1gjmqxnw
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Daniel Tello
uf33loWsm4Vx3OM8EEjr
public
contract
1,716,320,378,329
will-apple-stock-aapl-fully-break-1-6af0c8e45876
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $190 before $170? (fourth round!)
null
0.989303
0
NO
null
8vauba6873w
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Has to be loans for me, there are so many interesting long term markets that I’m no longer motivated to bet on at all.", "type": "text" ...
Arky
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,320,683,697
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
null
null
null
null
null
mpcle6z4gh
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1vn5zo8dj89", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Joshua
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,716,321,122,780
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
1vn5zo8dj89
null
null
null
null
56hhy9wovgj
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "👀 looks like there's strong disagreement here", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
P9sLp93Ugd3a8YEeRQpC
public
contract
1,716,321,173,014
will-roon-turn-against-openai-in-20
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
o1u35p5dmsa
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,342,045
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
314.652598
NO
ac6058baf341
3k9s6yvzmmz
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,344,487
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
vu6x4g7hpbk
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,392,671
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
l6lig52des
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6mkfybq2xdr", "label": "CaseyTheGripLord", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Bruno
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
public
contract
1,716,321,401,794
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
2hwvf9w37d9
null
null
null
null
l6wt947ii7
false
QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rnugmea4r4q", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Gaston Kessler
Dxg3vWvZuv3LqrRl2Lhg
public
contract
1,716,321,424,243
will-the-mana-supply-grow-to-1b-man
GastonKessler
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c
Will the mana supply grow to 1B mana before 2025?
rnugmea4r4q
0.412338
356.165553
NO
null
vrcfyk3e9
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "my gut says this is a 2025 thing; i put the odds at <= 30% that it will occur this year", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
Campbell Hutcheson
njdHMzTWs3KaniPxatsB
public
contract
1,716,321,426,675
will-gpt5-be-released-for-public-us
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will GPT-5 be released for public usage before January 1st, 2025?
null
0.53
20.402796
NO
null
h4sn70w6rx7
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,446,829
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
314.652598
NO
ac6058baf341
qxu84i2zee
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,452,087
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
3rtui7225ha
false
QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rnugmea4r4q", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Gaston Kessler
Dxg3vWvZuv3LqrRl2Lhg
public
contract
1,716,321,456,483
will-the-mana-supply-grow-to-1b-man
GastonKessler
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c
Will the mana supply grow to 1B mana before 2025?
rnugmea4r4q
0.412338
356.165553
NO
null
7dbrgos1v6h
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,321,514,407
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
2054si2bgmc
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
0xSMW
SrU0UnpFIAntHe2zbPLU
public
contract
1,716,321,584,807
rabbit-r1-scam-what-will-coffeezill
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Rabbit R1 scam - what will Coffeezilla uncover?
null
null
null
null
null
i9dzu8lokor
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jurkq7erx", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
ismellpillows
IDzZ4oX9bgLGMxvmaPaI
public
contract
1,716,322,533,190
add-answers-what-can-each-manifold
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
[Add answers] What can each Manifold user be convinced of in the next month? (Debate market)
6qrtsunve16
null
15.468421
YES
150e3456cbb2
bgpm7q518c5
false
Disjvik10uMvgwgHmWKxCGQiBL12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q1m5v98p5j", "label": "nullnullffd1", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
VNet Chrome
tPdjseGBw868qBobF6Cx
public
contract
1,716,322,674,276
will-gpt-be-said-by-anyone-in-a-pre
VNetChrome
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKhCUV1ku9tdawrtVz5spuXXiiMfObHRMeKseoBeEVh=s96-c
Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?
q1m5v98p5j
null
null
null
null
dbwdd977y6b
false
INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l6lig52des", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Casey The Grip Lord
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
public
contract
1,716,322,786,692
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
CaseyTheGripLord
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
2hwvf9w37d9
null
311.523614
NO
63f8d8325f99
j3ttmh7vwo
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
stefanie
1qCevBu8ApAMeAEb6sBu
public
contract
1,716,322,837,132
is-any-nonsensical-roon-tweet-from
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Is any Silly Roon Tweet from 2024 actually cool insider info about OpenAI?
null
0.208377
162.736973
YES
null
5qyl1or13z8
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,323,132,292
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
mr1v7w8dd1
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2054si2bgmc", "label": "StephenMWalkerII", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
0xSMW
SrU0UnpFIAntHe2zbPLU
public
contract
1,716,323,189,008
rabbit-r1-scam-what-will-coffeezill
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Rabbit R1 scam - what will Coffeezilla uncover?
2054si2bgmc
null
null
null
null
8m1ph3jqzbs
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do you take creatine?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andri
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,323,229,301
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
null
0.484704
296.335519
YES
null
1bjunl4ghf4
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i9dzu8lokor", "label": "ismellpillows", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Savior of Plant
IDzZ4oX9bgLGMxvmaPaI
public
contract
1,716,323,276,128
add-answers-what-can-each-manifold
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
[Add answers] What can each Manifold user be convinced of in the next month? (Debate market)
6qrtsunve16
null
325.243306
NO
9664df2043b6
6wr7fbvlust
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ever, in his career? The first team he plays for? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
wXXX4I2GNbVKokGA2fnu
public
contract
1,716,323,556,474
what-nfl-team-will-arch-manning-pla
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
What NFL team will Arch Manning play for?
null
null
null
null
null
xe2h4n2c02n
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gtm4mskx79t", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Savior of Plant
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,716,323,645,281
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
gtm4mskx79t
null
487.709089
YES
a7fd6e4ae5ac
19qzh1570nn
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5qyl1or13z8", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,323,839,161
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
m4ofnmxemlg
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x5ow09nh4h", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Dan Homerick
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,324,018,531
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
x5ow09nh4h
0.524197
1,741.661073
NO
null
cual6125wuf
false
Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trader bonuses going away is sad but I don't really care. Overall I like it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Andrew Smith
0ubelcsS8xj0gjRZ9Qzy
public
contract
1,716,324,046,421
do-you-like-the-changes-from-the-ma
asmith
https://firebasestorage.…a0f-d901653a5912
Do you like the changes from the Manifold pivot thus far?
null
null
null
null
null
pjo17uodcz
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Let's go robomule!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
MEBuuLJo6K9HxVNkO4BO
public
contract
1,716,324,051,176
robotic-back-animal-which-works-on
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Robotic mule - A pack robot which works on a beach available by mid 2033
null
null
null
null
null
fkqw432w6zf
false
QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For clarification: Is it possible that the question is void by false premise, e.g. because Daniel’s equity hadn’t actually vested yet in the relevant s...
Gustavo Lacerda
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,324,109,859
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
GustavoLacerda
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
null
0.593898
131.040131
YES
null
umz2w9sbc3e
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes. Pedestrians (should) have priority in road use", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
Rana G
YL9XV8ntHsOiPYPP92ID
public
contract
1,716,324,268,123
do-you-jaywalk
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you jaywalk?
null
null
null
null
null
h5a97cygf5i
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ROBOPALANQUIN GOOOOOOOOOO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
WVQfD2BHDrJKmJBKqIA5
public
contract
1,716,324,302,762
robopalanquin-humancarrying-robot-a
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034
null
null
null
null
null
qxrud3upftd
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like the page showing people's positions is bugged, or maybe just very slow to update? It's still showing me holding a YES position. Odd.", ...
Dan Homerick
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,324,371,431
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
0.524197
1,741.661073
NO
null
4udeyghfelx
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qxrud3upftd", "label": "DanHomerick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Dan Homerick
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,324,413,061
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
qxrud3upftd
0.524197
1,741.661073
NO
null
3m52z95k2qu
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sgvrlv66x59", "label": "mattyb", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Rana G
YL9XV8ntHsOiPYPP92ID
public
contract
1,716,324,460,821
do-you-jaywalk
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you jaywalk?
sgvrlv66x59
null
null
null
null
f3zqnpzscn
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's all about incentives (and expectations shaping incentives) ex-ante. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Rana G
wTglEIHRfndwOyNTNd2C
public
contract
1,716,324,702,139
whats-more-important-justice-or-for
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
what's more important: justice or forgiveness
null
null
null
null
null
rydcbxqw43q
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There is no such thing as justice. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
wTglEIHRfndwOyNTNd2C
public
contract
1,716,324,737,847
whats-more-important-justice-or-for
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
what's more important: justice or forgiveness
f3zqnpzscn
null
null
null
null
kvt6vyaair
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "50 percent at 40 traders ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
XkIpOBiFpfeZn9wmbkNE
public
contract
1,716,325,073,761
will-sam-altman-give-testimony-to-e
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Sam Altman give testimony to either chamber of Congress in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
tm2f2oqigg
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’m surprised not to see liquidity subsidies mentioned.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "att...
Simon Grayson
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,325,131,905
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
null
null
null
null
null
1f3fqqdoxk5
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tm2f2oqigg", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Arky
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,325,180,672
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
tm2f2oqigg
null
null
null
null
ij715hm8f9s
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "label": "dglid", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
nikki
kyVrTcN3a3nZhVBe53Y6
public
contract
1,716,325,419,267
will-i-successfully-learn-how-to-cr
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…497-f98cb9862793
Will I successfully learn how to create a Manifold bot and get it working by June 2024?
gbxayg1qfum
0.299875
278.289301
YES
null
w81fq9uklq7
false
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wouldn‘t a more accurate name for this market be “Does the Manifold community think Sam Altman abused his sister?“ or “Will the Manifold community thin...
Jonathan Mannhart
TvgYlvYb5HX9uBzAOXnD
public
contract
1,716,325,439,638
did-sam-altman-abuse-annie-altman
JonathanMannhart
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
Did Sam Altman abuse Annie Altman?
null
null
null
null
null
em00q6486wj
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tm2f2oqigg", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Arky
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,325,532,574
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
tm2f2oqigg
null
null
null
null
jiicghl1raf
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mosrsr0ll", "label": "Haws", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Pat Scott🩴
d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
public
contract
1,716,325,683,184
will-changpeng-zhao-cz-do-any-priso
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
mosrsr0ll
0.989931
1,201.273663
NO
null
2rogn49xnlk
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6xlqqn5a4a9", "label": "komplexkonjugat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Matt C. Wilson
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,325,766,613
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
9zv92etugi6
null
1,187.909672
YES
1dde477200f0
r4fw7o26tsd
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m4ofnmxemlg", "label": "DanHomerick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,325,834,166
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
x5ow09nh4h
0.524197
728.412767
YES
null
xjg01j9496
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Meanwhile I'm hearing IFT-4 is NET June 1...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,716,325,885,098
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
x5ow09nh4h
0.524197
728.412767
YES
null
o06hfkqzp7h
false
vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Obviously not ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Forrest Taylor
cJr9XGDCpr6oaNng4prv
public
contract
1,716,326,211,003
ai-will-generate-coherent-5min-film-701f5bf4e5e3
TiredCliche
https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661
AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025
null
0.692915
1,891.103308
NO
null
ht3ruvssflc
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lun4w17k6mr", "label": "komplexkonjugat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Matt C. Wilson
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,326,275,797
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
1hjpnfxersn
null
1,187.909672
YES
1dde477200f0
fe7quusyumk
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "T-3 days til release! I'd expect another big surge of reviews on Thursday. Here's what the reviews-per-day looked like for \"Dune: Part Two\":", ...
Ziddletwix
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,716,326,364,281
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
6,350.783349
YES
cd4665798487
lww0aojsv5d
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Robin Hood scenario. 😁", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tricky Duck
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
public
contract
1,716,326,475,581
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
null
null
46.25017
NO
ef5acc9f7524
b2wdubtwfxu
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dx2hlxryik", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Nathan Wei
CUjdL819yyKUHQd1zAl7
public
contract
1,716,326,657,035
will-bibi-netanyahu-be-invited-to-a
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Will Bibi Netanyahu be invited to address the 118th US Congress?
dx2hlxryik
0.857501
1,302.624432
NO
null
607q6nwc6cn
false
vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The balloon head guy movie that OpenAI put out was heavily edited and CGI'ed. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null,...
Forrest Taylor
1bBSgtrgwLVKnyIn46gW
public
contract
1,716,326,919,971
will-aigenerated-content-be-good-en
TiredCliche
https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661
Will AI-generated content be good enough to make short films and miniseries of Hollywood quality by the start of 2025?
null
0.258267
5,255.419364
NO
null
2e6ng9ynp9n
false
Fxsi2an7IoMsNLyq1ODqsXZIMqC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "em00q6486wj", "label": "Arky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Benjamin Manns
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,327,036,771
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
benmanns
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKkghDuSf2qFv60YgKDe4sB83Qr5ah-gRmsZWJ4Y8cUS4oz=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
tm2f2oqigg
null
null
null
null
n20knu5cn3n
false
qnREWtzsdkOkzrR2k0jEe0EDp5j1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Somebody must have stopped manipulating this poll. No movement in quite a while", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
Chris 🥌
eH8wgrSOxoLQdY4PISVW
public
contract
1,716,327,068,782
do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5
chris
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcjsedwards%2F0rr7gruUWz.19?alt=media&token=8dfba163-ccec-436f-8af3-57f4cf25db11
📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024? (37% DONE)
null
null
null
null
null
t1cfbybeib
false
rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm curious what \"no\" holders think might happen here. To my knowledge:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }...
draaglom
PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo
public
contract
1,716,327,072,234
will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
draaglom
https://firebasestorage.…a3e-1dbfa72b78a4
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
null
0.665224
5,814.00051
YES
null
vaa52m5aj9
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n20knu5cn3n", "label": "chris", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
chris (strutheo)
eH8wgrSOxoLQdY4PISVW
public
contract
1,716,327,130,720
do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024? (37% DONE)
n20knu5cn3n
null
null
null
null
33mfdyyugne
false
Tcjj639yMYhe7U5Bv6eocDGYCLn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i3m0sojd9is", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Anna Cherry
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,327,131,437
do-you-enjoy-gooning
AnnaCherry
https://firebasestorage.…a10-a4e261428465
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
tpmrtwtlxde
false
qnREWtzsdkOkzrR2k0jEe0EDp5j1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vaa52m5aj9", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Chris 🥌
eH8wgrSOxoLQdY4PISVW
public
contract
1,716,327,158,456
do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5
chris
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcjsedwards%2F0rr7gruUWz.19?alt=media&token=8dfba163-ccec-436f-8af3-57f4cf25db11
📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024? (37% DONE)
n20knu5cn3n
null
null
null
null
solpdro3f5a
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8m1ph3jqzbs", "label": "andri", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Elliot Davies
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,327,182,937
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
8m1ph3jqzbs
null
null
null
null
pbjj782cuu9
false
zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have a bit trouble understanding what this is after, listing suicide, murder threats, nanobot deployment, and war as somehow comparable. If a single ...
Goodgulf
nHYxCQ3URAzfE2H7HgO6
public
contract
1,716,327,404,005
will-someone-take-desperate-measure-49cdddbe5b63
Goodgulf
https://firebasestorage.…815-4b5f7a6bf6e8
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
8v8t3cosmkt
false
tyUfMBkIfnbijZ57GFN6XBnwvKs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "anyone who votes yes is either a booster or a mark. either way you don't understand either chess or LLMs.", "type": "text" } ],...
Liam Thomas
LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj
public
contract
1,716,327,466,834
will-a-large-language-models-beat-a
LiamThomas
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKPcSexOakctjBaZ-XczJp9RZGdS1GwYu-cNGWXbYf7=s96-c
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
null
0.446214
846.352332
NO
null
je0ardffqn
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "71rhmqjgufg", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
Y8xY2r82WF6Ja262VV3G
public
contract
1,716,327,504,062
when-will-manifold-reach-9000-month
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
When will Manifold Reach 9000 Monthly Active Users?
71rhmqjgufg
null
730.213259
NO
41a2becf7284
fkkyxdh5t6
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Matt C. Wilson
AmLUUJqlCfmAzlBJbVCJ
public
contract
1,716,327,535,791
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-88
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 88)
null
null
1,187.909672
YES
9312ab9d488a
k0sqfz2mvgo
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Niel S
l67hFMTePYyGpbCQBnwa
public
contract
1,716,327,694,567
manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible
null
0.09
7,105.491837
NO
null
t0kh7nbrskk
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Allow users the choice to downgrade from Masters to Diamond levels during first day of new season. I would rather compete and earn rewards at the Diam...
Tricky Duck
HoDBWOiNZ6iulWTJDmGO
public
contract
1,716,327,732,703
how-can-manifold-improve
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
How can Manifold improve?
null
null
null
null
null
tdbzw37s34g
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2", "label": "ManifoldAI", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
Ziddletwix
fHWFnz72Zr28gYy7GDlQ
public
contract
1,716,327,760,593
when-will-ilya-announce-where-he-wi
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
When will Ilya announce where he will work next?
null
null
322.127111
NO
9a4f2f3ee70a
56c6xd6nobs
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "solpdro3f5a", "label": "ElliotDavies", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Andri
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,327,779,681
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
8m1ph3jqzbs
0.484704
296.335519
YES
null
4rvoajsq5kb
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
l67hFMTePYyGpbCQBnwa
public
contract
1,716,327,883,668
manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible
null
null
null
null
null
e9ndw2w88hp
false
KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
nsokolsky
RwF7zWPBVLYKlmTavXUh
public
contract
1,716,327,893,941
we-will-see-a-100k-person-antiai-pr
nsokolsky
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-0bf53e95c42d
We will see a 100k person anti-AI protest before 2030
null
0.626654
3,038.784981
NO
null
n1lc9w5w3aj
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
l67hFMTePYyGpbCQBnwa
public
contract
1,716,327,933,073
manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible
null
null
null
null
null
ljpmgoawtq
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pNeeWxqGLTWoSNuld4hS1UxrFRr2", "label": "CooperDrbal", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Ziddletwix
Ma0dKTwgUugrONk3mH0A
public
contract
1,716,328,021,276
who-is-going-to-win-the-nba-champio
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
who is going to win the nba championship?
null
null
206.982062
NO
2a8fa2b7c151
fm6zldskwgp
false
KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Close to reopening: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
nsokolsky
hRTc0hK0Ttx28UlhuhaY
public
contract
1,716,328,095,235
will-the-port-of-baltimore-restore
nsokolsky
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-0bf53e95c42d
Will the port of Baltimore restore normal operations by the end of 2024?
null
0.842425
87.623161
YES
null
ceezqq5bflc
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Niel S
bqahXkqJEdus1FJ7Yzia
public
contract
1,716,328,135,704
manifold-lottery-tickets-50x-return
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
null
0.033624
32,900.139569
NO
null
vt7j6nrkqim
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
bqahXkqJEdus1FJ7Yzia
public
contract
1,716,328,142,366
manifold-lottery-tickets-50x-return
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
null
null
null
null
null
k7qfnezrr2n
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pbjj782cuu9", "label": "JuhoPennanen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ihor Kendiukhov
nHYxCQ3URAzfE2H7HgO6
public
contract
1,716,328,153,287
will-someone-take-desperate-measure-49cdddbe5b63
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?
pbjj782cuu9
0.499955
19.234326
YES
null
73wityyxz3l
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
bqahXkqJEdus1FJ7Yzia
public
contract
1,716,328,204,283
manifold-lottery-tickets-50x-return
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
null
null
null
null
null
wbqpxaxhl9
false
rDzj1HmvNmYyIpU5rAmWliVb9rO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Washington on top", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Yang
qW7FqLBslGcNlS1XKrgF
public
contract
1,716,328,334,696
what-team-will-win-arml-top-score-a
KevinYang271
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLIkMMcg3rsht_UCyiUiRgGH7g1K6PbEcUMZMt04OOutorbm6lF=s96-c
What team will win ARML (top score among both divisions)?
null
null
720.309717
YES
7c962f2ee307
pz0o5ddpxdf
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "26zhbi3nxjx", "label": "nathanwei", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
q4VTd4bI9AhllLAhb2nK
public
contract
1,716,328,446,171
when-will-i-leave-manifold
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
When will I leave Manifold?
d9f5fo3xu4g
null
584.710919
YES
1e44874a094e
fp1gwf0n0nq
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Ziddletwix
v9BeWUgero8TTWSjxYMW
public
contract
1,716,328,459,415
will-the-trader-bonus-be-reduced-ag
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the trader bonus be reduced again?
null
0.961333
435.489561
YES
null