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ad4pxo2jpkl
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pz0o5ddpxdf", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Nathan Wei
q4VTd4bI9AhllLAhb2nK
public
contract
1,716,328,636,443
when-will-i-leave-manifold
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
When will I leave Manifold?
d9f5fo3xu4g
null
740.597752
YES
1e44874a094e
bhfunw6l4h
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "LessOnline/Summer Camp prop bets still open - if you have things to add but don't want to pay the fee, lmk and I'll add them for you 🧡 ", "t...
stefanie
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,716,328,660,876
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
89.041388
YES
1760a3f1a6ab
eqq70w41vi
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pz0o5ddpxdf", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Nathan Wei
q4VTd4bI9AhllLAhb2nK
public
contract
1,716,328,682,751
when-will-i-leave-manifold
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
When will I leave Manifold?
d9f5fo3xu4g
null
740.597752
YES
1e44874a094e
irqly38pli
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jiicghl1raf", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Haws
d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
public
contract
1,716,328,690,431
will-changpeng-zhao-cz-do-any-priso
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
mosrsr0ll
0.989931
588.588064
YES
null
3ynyi3jcinh
false
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "08wpVA4F6JqRIvamOELs", "label": "TimDuffy", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
notarealuser
s3UGpxXnOPyNnii5yKZU
public
contract
1,716,328,807,409
will-starlink-have-over-ten-million
notarealuser
https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354
Will Starlink have over ten million subscribers by the end of 2025?
08wpVA4F6JqRIvamOELs
0.55
476.085565
YES
null
i03ucdpimod
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I will also add for any1 wondering, the only way this resolves NO (at this point since sentencing has already taken place) is if for whatever reason he...
Haws
d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
public
contract
1,716,328,857,433
will-changpeng-zhao-cz-do-any-priso
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
mosrsr0ll
0.989931
588.588064
YES
null
bsadkwxdi2t
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Self-driving Robotic car vacuum mole beasts yo", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
7B1RHOYKkSVIe3mU9CNO
public
contract
1,716,328,866,903
robotic-car-vacuum-beast-by-mid-203
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Robotic car vacuum beast by mid 2035
null
null
null
null
null
wyk4s41fiac
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2b0stx0jitu", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Evan
ws2bbQX7WVUK4T5yVD9q
public
contract
1,716,328,969,648
on-what-date-will-the-first-crewed-0c96846dd209
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
On what date will the first crewed Boeing Starliner lift off happen?
z2bkl9gi3u
null
61.918209
NO
e0fca584dccd
6tcck13ey5f
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "56c6xd6nobs", "label": "andri", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Elliot Davies
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,328,978,682
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
8m1ph3jqzbs
null
null
null
null
qq60plfaxa
false
DsMiQTKKm3diNnb8m3rVoIc0HC72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "See my rabbit review here: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Gabe Garboden
6ixWQXfzdwYC32nGQ5La
public
contract
1,716,329,019,588
will-i-like-the-humane-pin-or-the-r
GabeGarboden
https://firebasestorage.…72b-d795f8c831cc
Will I like the Rabbit R1 better than the Humane Pin?
null
null
null
null
null
6ul0h0v26g4
false
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qq60plfaxa", "label": "GabeGarboden", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
niko
6ixWQXfzdwYC32nGQ5La
public
contract
1,716,329,156,588
will-i-like-the-humane-pin-or-the-r
Nikos
https://firebasestorage.…a97-2c3621c2928b
Will I like the Rabbit R1 better than the Humane Pin?
qq60plfaxa
0.82057
778.689711
YES
null
ta28jb5y8va
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ou6mpu6mmtp", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Chris Billington
HoDBWOiNZ6iulWTJDmGO
public
contract
1,716,329,213,230
how-can-manifold-improve
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
How can Manifold improve?
n8rkda1enqd
null
null
null
null
3sf8fg41f0p
false
DsMiQTKKm3diNnb8m3rVoIc0HC72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6ul0h0v26g4", "label": "Nikos", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Gabe Garboden
6ixWQXfzdwYC32nGQ5La
public
contract
1,716,329,263,491
will-i-like-the-humane-pin-or-the-r
GabeGarboden
https://firebasestorage.…72b-d795f8c831cc
Will I like the Rabbit R1 better than the Humane Pin?
qq60plfaxa
null
null
null
null
mamk7hr3wy
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ta28jb5y8va", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
stefanie
HoDBWOiNZ6iulWTJDmGO
public
contract
1,716,329,318,708
how-can-manifold-improve
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
How can Manifold improve?
n8rkda1enqd
null
null
null
null
xtputc5atb
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vch5yjgwm1", "label": "Arky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
James Baker
yJz5aRBDwqdm9ihZ3BDx
public
contract
1,716,329,321,178
should-manifold-let-the-mana-float
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Should Manifold let the Mana float?
vch5yjgwm1
null
null
null
null
gj1ous439a7
false
DsMiQTKKm3diNnb8m3rVoIc0HC72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Data from this forum indicates that VIN to delivery timeline is ~1-3 weeks. Probably going to be close!", "type": "text" } ], ...
Gabe Garboden
DmHNc6MvEibyaGNw3YoP
public
contract
1,716,329,371,659
will-i-take-delivery-of-a-cybertruc
GabeGarboden
https://firebasestorage.…72b-d795f8c831cc
Will I take delivery of a Cybertruck before June 1st 2024
null
null
null
null
null
vt3ioyusu1r
false
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If only it weren't right before the neurips deadline...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
Andrew G
AVAAlDpuYE1LnQtKKsUQ
public
contract
1,716,329,431,443
taco-tuesday-0430-secret-handshake
AndrewG
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
Taco Tuesday 05/21: Party Games
null
null
null
null
null
flbj65pxb4
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fkqw432w6zf", "label": "GustavoLacerda", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,329,887,068
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
fkqw432w6zf
0.593898
185.00068
YES
null
tzmzmxahozr
false
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "by 2050 for sure there will be many cases that are cured from diabetes .... ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
ed
oJhI6XyTCMn7VAHTMJXX
public
contract
1,716,330,023,229
will-over-a-billion-people-worldwid
3d
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
Will over a billion people worldwide be living with diabetes by 2050?
null
0.43
75.333096
NO
null
af0hsx4p9wq
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "19qzh1570nn", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,330,139,965
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
43io3kq0zca
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "381enm9nbg2", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
I0XNxnd4VP2dNES0iGZ7
public
contract
1,716,330,303,516
who-will-be-1-on-the-leaderboard-af
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Who will be #1 on the leaderboard after the pivot profit increase?
381enm9nbg2
null
12,030.146354
YES
46eb49f725e1
9fq9l1nm0zl
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "af0hsx4p9wq", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,330,445,652
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
e41v8fw05yc
false
cInsKX5arUUjPs8PXeSTlQybYeC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3ynyi3jcinh", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Tim Duffy
s3UGpxXnOPyNnii5yKZU
public
contract
1,716,330,474,414
will-starlink-have-over-ten-million
TimDuffy
https://firebasestorage.…f24-c683478811d8
Will Starlink have over ten million subscribers by the end of 2025?
08wpVA4F6JqRIvamOELs
0.55
1,045.113353
NO
null
pfe4ftjiev
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "label": "Gigacasting", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Daniel Tello
Ymb30JpgOcNPPxDNlxom
public
contract
1,716,330,679,143
bitcoin-low
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Bitcoin low—
sFog5ysVVm0pRbJtMG1K
null
870.346799
YES
b772028a7b50
jmgrm481fxs
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xtputc5atb", "label": "JamesBakerc884", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Arky
yJz5aRBDwqdm9ihZ3BDx
public
contract
1,716,330,797,570
should-manifold-let-the-mana-float
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Should Manifold let the Mana float?
vch5yjgwm1
0.975071
7,407.808969
YES
null
o6bll6vcghr
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "label": "Gigacasting", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Daniel Tello
rOkLWBe3SB273yjEdWVb
public
contract
1,716,330,856,205
bitcoin-low-c3c08de42569
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Bitcoin low—
null
null
750.244469
YES
98846a15b492
1lx6itggl3m
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How to make a permanent market?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niel S
4LJFqojHSk8n3g0YEJE7
public
contract
1,716,330,928,726
banning-permanent-markets-stock-per
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Banning permanent markets stock [permanent]
null
null
null
null
null
mafutlgtdej
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9fq9l1nm0zl", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,330,935,326
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
gpau38i0w08
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mafutlgtdej", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,331,007,219
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
t13qojax61
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "13/24", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds":...
stefanie
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,716,331,021,280
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
71crycw6lw6
null
753.375109
NO
e46ef40a0bed
df2sqoxctk
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jmgrm481fxs", "label": "Arky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Joshua
yJz5aRBDwqdm9ihZ3BDx
public
contract
1,716,331,110,556
should-manifold-let-the-mana-float
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Should Manifold let the Mana float?
vch5yjgwm1
null
null
null
null
81uamo9jget
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "it went pretty quickly from a general statement about obeying authority to drawing the line between men obeying competent authority and women being mor...
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,331,114,665
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
lsw72wrn3oo
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "81uamo9jget", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,331,271,187
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
nydun97p0vf
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hi Secretary ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "6he61qk9u27", "label": "HillaryClinto...
Bruno
RdDaOvPvcZI0QtBFZ1oz
public
contract
1,716,331,277,989
who-will-win-the-2032-united-states-55f2f77770ba
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Who will win the 2032 United States presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
6he61qk9u27
null
0
NO
171d241df428
e5vya57ynyl
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tm2f2oqigg", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
public
contract
1,716,331,426,284
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What do you miss most from before the pivot?
tm2f2oqigg
null
null
null
null
q4960ckes5
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "43io3kq0zca", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
I0XNxnd4VP2dNES0iGZ7
public
contract
1,716,331,508,720
who-will-be-1-on-the-leaderboard-af
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be #1 on the leaderboard after the pivot profit increase?
381enm9nbg2
null
201.41731
YES
b0a3c61184de
gs8nz5pe9ik
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q4960ckes5", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
I0XNxnd4VP2dNES0iGZ7
public
contract
1,716,331,591,837
who-will-be-1-on-the-leaderboard-af
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Who will be #1 on the leaderboard after the pivot profit increase?
381enm9nbg2
null
12,030.146354
YES
46eb49f725e1
oq4de45q85o
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "According to all known laws of aviation...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
ldm1H6jHwzWAwLUwrZKK
public
contract
1,716,331,635,057
are-bees-sentient
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Are bees sentient?
null
null
null
null
null
o26nhlo4zy9
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gs8nz5pe9ik", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
I0XNxnd4VP2dNES0iGZ7
public
contract
1,716,331,653,340
who-will-be-1-on-the-leaderboard-af
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be #1 on the leaderboard after the pivot profit increase?
381enm9nbg2
null
239.352056
YES
b0a3c61184de
5zjeph1lvrg
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o26nhlo4zy9", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
I0XNxnd4VP2dNES0iGZ7
public
contract
1,716,331,708,016
who-will-be-1-on-the-leaderboard-af
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Who will be #1 on the leaderboard after the pivot profit increase?
381enm9nbg2
null
12,030.146354
YES
46eb49f725e1
la28eitiuy
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "81uamo9jget", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,331,760,834
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
73ie4yfq2wx
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lsw72wrn3oo", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,331,783,208
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
6gkw709bhmr
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "la28eitiuy", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,331,848,508
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
lt3qorx3sa
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5zjeph1lvrg", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
I0XNxnd4VP2dNES0iGZ7
public
contract
1,716,331,854,374
who-will-be-1-on-the-leaderboard-af
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be #1 on the leaderboard after the pivot profit increase?
381enm9nbg2
null
239.352056
YES
b0a3c61184de
nqhqc6yd2p
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lgfjo2b236l", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ben Shindel
GexKUqn5ElyB7gVZsyQo
public
contract
1,716,331,860,290
what-will-sam-altman-do-next-add-an
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
What will Sam Altman do by June 1, 2024? (Add answers!)
kg4s27otgv7
null
132.003814
NO
87a21299e498
wwqmtv8mqv
false
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "the house always wins", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
l67hFMTePYyGpbCQBnwa
public
contract
1,716,332,044,458
manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return
Tumbles
https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d
Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible
null
0.09
7,856.640433
NO
null
lifrcspb4kn
false
vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Two days left! How do we feel now that we're fully post-pivot?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
Marnix
SMpDe7NFZVG1mUpoHDxX
public
contract
1,716,332,050,260
do-you-think-the-manifold-pivot-is
Marnix
https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d
Do you think The Manifold Pivot is more sensible or more foolish?
null
null
null
null
null
ec5m5hqw3m4
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sFog5ysVVm0pRbJtMG1K", "label": "deagol", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Chris Billington
Ymb30JpgOcNPPxDNlxom
public
contract
1,716,332,135,380
bitcoin-low
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Bitcoin low—
sFog5ysVVm0pRbJtMG1K
null
null
null
null
dpa8u4bhb7c
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "label": "AmmonLam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
FNHydUH7mcyKM66WWGDc
public
contract
1,716,332,173,091
how-much-creator-earnings-will-stru
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much Creator earnings will @strutheo get in league season 13?
null
null
400.206446
YES
359ff7ea1f8f
dths1on52rd
false
6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zxwuj6l51ff", "label": "Odoacre", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joe and Seth
YNsC29Fl1BlfMtidAMjB
public
contract
1,716,332,648,633
whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the
JoeandSeth
https://firebasestorage.…d63-7cd4d86d6320
Who/what do Manifold users think they could beat (unarmed) in a fight? [Add responses.]
yyyqv5wmq7a
null
72.028845
YES
9a9818b77909
3b6jtvqz40r
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2nd caveat - we will cross the bridge of \"If CZ evades prison\" if we cross it lol. This question requires CZ to enter a prison cell even for 1 hour ...
Haws
d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
public
contract
1,716,332,771,428
will-changpeng-zhao-cz-do-any-priso
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
mosrsr0ll
0.989931
588.588064
YES
null
m32eqzbbls
false
P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this mean the full Congress (House + Senate) or either chamber?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, ...
houstonEuler
15g3WcUDLSovre9aDMco
public
contract
1,716,333,118,488
will-bibi-netanyahu-address-the-118
houstonEuler
https://firebasestorage.…e7b-0ce121292ad7
Will Bibi Netanyahu address the 118th Congress?
null
null
null
null
null
nixe8oh04f
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Other odds for comparison:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null,...
Joshua
1EThWNpPwqwzgRimLRhi
public
contract
1,716,333,184,409
acx-2024-who-will-win-the-2024-mexi
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? [ACX 2024]
null
null
234.751243
YES
d43e608550cd
b6sdcs00cla
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m32eqzbbls", "label": "houstonEuler", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Semiotic Rivalry
15g3WcUDLSovre9aDMco
public
contract
1,716,333,224,778
will-bibi-netanyahu-address-the-118
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will Bibi Netanyahu address the 118th Congress?
m32eqzbbls
0.768504
1,481.59155
YES
null
mnuvxj7wtcf
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,333,297,193
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
314.652598
NO
ac6058baf341
2fqq7fw8mbk
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,333,303,763
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
em98l9j5qp
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Haws
d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
public
contract
1,716,333,317,271
will-changpeng-zhao-cz-do-any-priso
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
null
0.989931
588.588064
YES
null
mrnrbqp1x5a
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,333,362,589
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
arhg7463035
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,333,368,038
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
314.652598
NO
ac6058baf341
tray79wjvvn
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,333,370,087
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
bjlouml41up
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,333,423,212
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
oo533n25ix8
false
v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is such a sad statistic.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Krantz
YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc
public
contract
1,716,333,494,733
will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
Krantz
https://firebasestorage.…804-fed8dc551e61
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
null
0.32
30.086014
YES
null
msf2rpz369
false
Ucf9gSx91qSILEaE9hWzxqVcfnF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is already true, no? The iPhone was talked about but ChatGPT convinced some people the singularity was nigh. Talk about AI has just exploded in th...
William Dewey
5xvZ2ZVhzaVIEWIUkYsr
public
contract
1,716,333,501,733
5-years-from-now-will-chatgpt-be-se
WilliamDewey
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJEUFzf9eRwSwv9JXyMV7z4aITfNnqch9PTaFKTPMZl=s96-c
5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?"
null
0.867817
70.84602
YES
null
ik1grkya1w9
false
Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I feel like the big \"if\" of this market is the AGI part. That's a very big bar to clear!", "type": "text" } ], "type": ...
Lorxus PhD 🦊
s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk
public
contract
1,716,333,652,118
will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g
Lorxus
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
null
0.215572
3,043.177011
NO
null
xyhkbje06h
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Joshua
Hx6ztBBnhHTGss9lI5OG
public
contract
1,716,333,817,290
manifold-top-traders-leaderboard-20
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifold Top Traders Leaderboard 2024 Megamarket
null
null
88.897031
YES
899d596c15d6
mxsmjiujzab
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6gkw709bhmr", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,333,825,628
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
5qyl1or13z8
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
tuxymhqtn9a
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "label": "Gigacasting", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Daniel Tello
ySxznMWI4cYQc3glx25f
public
contract
1,716,333,868,153
crypto-cycle-low
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Crypto Cycle Low
null
null
611.258928
YES
fb159412a16c
uuj78nnuu0s
false
LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "s0ldr5zq7zc", "label": "josh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Harrison Lucas
Ovdg7Im8LLYrEETn39g0
public
contract
1,716,333,873,435
someone-changes-reality-to-profit-o
HarrisonLucas
https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e
Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?
s0ldr5zq7zc
0.42654
185.00068
YES
null
b45uw7v3ha
false
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t1cfbybeib", "label": "draaglom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Craig Talbert
PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo
public
contract
1,716,333,916,558
will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
CraigTalbert
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
t1cfbybeib
0.665224
117.472562
NO
null
jgx5svt1fp
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ec5m5hqw3m4", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Daniel Tello
Ymb30JpgOcNPPxDNlxom
public
contract
1,716,333,925,230
bitcoin-low
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Bitcoin low—
sFog5ysVVm0pRbJtMG1K
null
870.346799
YES
b772028a7b50
04j9dh1kluh6
false
vhOb9Oblv0UdSWE0t95c7C18nxt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oo533n25ix8", "label": "Krantz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ṁ710
YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc
public
contract
1,716,333,932,007
will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
ElmerFudd
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FElmerFudd%2FO_VjM6kAYN.07?alt=media&token=41234898-830b-4e46-ae81-5236cc9e8349
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
oo533n25ix8
0.32
951.83315
YES
null
wi7nbc6uo1
false
A6hZXGj8r0NPjD78ELxkTNbTtNC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Well, given that there was the 2 week condition and the flight is scheduled to occur no earlier than May 25th, I'm going to go ahead and resolve this a...
Anonymous
ymfkRJdmQw6JIJFZeN25
public
contract
1,716,333,951,565
will-the-boeing-starliner-crewed-fl
Anonymous0000
https://firebasestorage.…2cf-865532dcf46d
Will the Boeing Starliner Crewed Flight Test (Boe-CFT) be successful?
null
null
null
null
null
yxgm6kjbnk
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Dang still no update for April. Someone quit? Bumping out the close date on this market. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "...
Archibald Crone
WviL2TdAXHOpfIiUItnj
public
contract
1,716,333,970,650
in-what-country-will-the-next-mass
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
📢✊In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024?
null
null
180.116238
YES
e41e47504bcc
knre9bveqbo
false
vhOb9Oblv0UdSWE0t95c7C18nxt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lcl6zGScna87T7M2vhLK", "label": "yard", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ṁ710
QVPb8yrukyYnTMDyXxTo
public
contract
1,716,334,050,916
will-israel-win-the-2023-israelhama
ElmerFudd
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FElmerFudd%2FO_VjM6kAYN.07?alt=media&token=41234898-830b-4e46-ae81-5236cc9e8349
Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
lcl6zGScna87T7M2vhLK
null
null
null
null
txoe3oqbdxd
false
IHDLxybqxuUw6eITbJRATOukljJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y8y6s0k7n5f", "label": "blorppppp", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Michael Lee
1sfbjcTu6zgqjCVjqWA2
public
contract
1,716,334,238,752
will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
MichaelLee121b
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcf18lcTJaqrchOtEMvJ-eXO_445JlTyL8Cqv_p0zxqX10=s96-c
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
y8y6s0k7n5f
0.03995
184.471175
YES
null
elv3fuf0iyk
false
v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "04j9dh1kluh6", "label": "ElmerFudd", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Krantz
YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc
public
contract
1,716,334,398,740
will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
Krantz
https://firebasestorage.…804-fed8dc551e61
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
oo533n25ix8
0.32
30.086014
YES
null
y4p7c6fmhk
false
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e41v8fw05yc", "label": "TimDuffy", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
notarealuser
s3UGpxXnOPyNnii5yKZU
public
contract
1,716,334,584,238
will-starlink-have-over-ten-million
notarealuser
https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354
Will Starlink have over ten million subscribers by the end of 2025?
08wpVA4F6JqRIvamOELs
0.55
476.085565
YES
null
v75g7tnszh
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t13qojax61", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Pat Scott🩴
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,716,334,871,827
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
71crycw6lw6
null
282.45773
YES
a06afbcc5807
iqumplrvdqm
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Semiotic Rivalry
TlAwFxpxKC9rP2hZkCtf
public
contract
1,716,334,972,155
who-will-win-the-georgia-state-supr
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Who will win the Georgia State Supreme Court election today?
null
null
57,691.957069
YES
d2631b7f9996
ehewy3f2tgs
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
stefanie
EnIPKs1K04vlHWBLgbbn
public
contract
1,716,335,067,393
when-will-a-rafah-ground-invasion-b
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
When will a Rafah Ground Invasion be reported by the NYT? (Weekly)
null
null
6,176.173042
NO
660100ebb0f1
8rkemo84xiv
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v75g7tnszh", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,716,335,204,987
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
71crycw6lw6
null
753.375109
NO
e46ef40a0bed
et4exwobko6
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "33mfdyyugne", "label": "AnnaCherry", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,335,220,166
do-you-enjoy-gooning
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
hg8q7a7wdst
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
nikki
Hx6ztBBnhHTGss9lI5OG
public
contract
1,716,335,253,622
manifold-top-traders-leaderboard-20
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…497-f98cb9862793
Manifold Top Traders Leaderboard 2024 Megamarket
null
null
80.041816
YES
516add6b6530
7owdo6szs15
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is not a bug or exploit, it's intended behaviour", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc...
nikki
Hx6ztBBnhHTGss9lI5OG
public
contract
1,716,335,270,688
manifold-top-traders-leaderboard-20
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…497-f98cb9862793
Manifold Top Traders Leaderboard 2024 Megamarket
hg8q7a7wdst
null
80.041816
YES
516add6b6530
4s8h11ondxt
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nqhqc6yd2p", "label": "benshindel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Dan
GexKUqn5ElyB7gVZsyQo
public
contract
1,716,335,296,442
what-will-sam-altman-do-next-add-an
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
What will Sam Altman do by June 1, 2024? (Add answers!)
kg4s27otgv7
null
475.63489
YES
f584a4fa76ac
4ndp4ab846d
false
NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ptaff7ih07j", "label": "Odoacre", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
dionisos
YNsC29Fl1BlfMtidAMjB
public
contract
1,716,335,480,280
whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the
dionisos
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaBN5h-fDSn1z_PVqv7Ig7DoyQe7_sl0KXlw4bokw=s96-c
Who/what do Manifold users think they could beat (unarmed) in a fight? [Add responses.]
yyyqv5wmq7a
null
27.035936
NO
5bd18463c12a
8l5paa13kyh
false
LOGbOF5vIAVmbEm9xiueZTNEPEg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What about the infamous $1 settlement? Doesn’t seem in the spirit of the proposition ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "par...
T S
E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
public
contract
1,716,335,867,199
will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon
TS80c3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKjxGzBCpgj73wh0bMPvbetjH95JFcKV5DEYmOR2x4hvaEDiSjU=s96-c
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
f9vjwm4p0q
false
n9g6oDj4dqgJQyE0P0PBsex1sWI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2sx1gjmqxnw", "label": "deagol", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Daniel Tilkin
uf33loWsm4Vx3OM8EEjr
public
contract
1,716,336,065,781
will-apple-stock-aapl-fully-break-1-6af0c8e45876
DanielTilkin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaD_F3MPbut-et9lJUiLj_dMo5cRkQ70utJs_egAQ=s96-c
Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $190 before $170? (fourth round!)
2sx1gjmqxnw
0.989303
36.91434
YES
null
5tm7h4zt6z9
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do later months resolve yes or no if he's imprisoned in an earlier month?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
gT1o9AbV1cuLNgYhOmLI
public
contract
1,716,336,179,927
in-which-month-will-cz-be-taken-int
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
In which month will CZ be taken into BOP custody?
null
null
null
null
null
jhbjle6tyrh
false
cInsKX5arUUjPs8PXeSTlQybYeC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y4p7c6fmhk", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Tim Duffy
s3UGpxXnOPyNnii5yKZU
public
contract
1,716,336,301,565
will-starlink-have-over-ten-million
TimDuffy
https://firebasestorage.…f24-c683478811d8
Will Starlink have over ten million subscribers by the end of 2025?
08wpVA4F6JqRIvamOELs
0.55
1,045.113353
NO
null
sqe88zlni1
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qklhdv391c", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
singer
ntrts8wCTG4JSzUIKubO
public
contract
1,716,336,321,383
hourly-coinflip-limits-at-51-49
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Daily coinflip with better odds (Limits at 51, 49)
w144rdzq4qd
0.500726
39.033842
NO
null
wfh9ju9e1ir
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hk3xfifcpgk", "label": "BonjTwo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Chris Billington
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,716,336,615,438
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
hk3xfifcpgk
0.562917
279.063885
NO
null
8a5cck2ewq2
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems like this market is kind of broken post pivot? Needs some subsidisation", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Daniel
tPLAFk3FPVm3xrBmldfh
public
contract
1,716,336,662,426
who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Who will be elected president in 2028?
null
null
595.917262
YES
b8eacca76898
k2bxid6s1tf
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "egjlxwk50b", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
singer
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,336,997,962
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
1chellmxq8z
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5tm7h4zt6z9", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Haws
gT1o9AbV1cuLNgYhOmLI
public
contract
1,716,337,032,226
in-which-month-will-cz-be-taken-int
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
In which month will CZ be taken into BOP custody?
5tm7h4zt6z9
null
null
null
null
yxlz40j14db
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🤞", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
gRDpRW8YwRoMNUFPSMnO
public
contract
1,716,337,216,012
will-star-voting-pass-in-eugene-ore
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Will Star Voting pass in Eugene, Oregon?
null
0.747074
0
YES
null
2pffetjy4yo
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm surprised by how high, \"Until the end of 2024,\" is. Pre-pivot, I was planning to make a sequel and run it ~a year after the original. Now I'm not...
Plasma Ballin'
hEbhleOcmNZCn1wo8TVo
public
contract
1,716,337,244,574
how-long-will-i-be-able-to-resist-t
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
How long will I be able to resist the temptation to create a another Manifold Survey?
null
null
1,027.115863
NO
a8dc40438d22
83r8dwy85ia
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ehewy3f2tgs", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
EnIPKs1K04vlHWBLgbbn
public
contract
1,716,337,352,865
when-will-a-rafah-ground-invasion-b
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
When will a Rafah Ground Invasion be reported by the NYT? (Weekly)
ehewy3f2tgs
null
0
NO
31406418826d
lyhqh7dvgg
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does it count if e.g. A CEO is murdered by her husband in a domestic violence incident unrelated to her being the CEO of a major lab? What about if a C...
Madge
WKccMXY8ApRiFcqBw7S7
public
contract
1,716,337,373,769
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
2lq2b9x5ngc
false
czCd79lUs5ZFHvpY7bA5vWiEw122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does the seniors tour count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content":...
Christopher ONeil
H9ZpjZB7jcOzkkKHKNMO
public
contract
1,716,337,715,347
tiger-woods-will-win-another-pga-to
ChristopherONeil
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcivQLmrcF6Y_Qc_O3YYNpACIr1wq4MxpdZr416kn8WkkYo=s96-c
Tiger Woods Will Win Another PGA Tournament
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