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q2yrs9t25fc
false
2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kgf9x761ywj", "label": "beccapao", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Anton Makiievskyi
F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ
public
contract
1,717,390,081,228
will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t
mckiev
https://firebasestorage.…974-e110b0dd226d
Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator?
kgf9x761ywj
0
7,587.426341
YES
null
1e3zcm8glsv
false
En8K1OQlFiP299l0BwZTCTZzG3Q2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do Internet cults count? I know something called Abzunianism, look it up", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Arkhos
fTrez8ws4v3fyNMtgO0P
public
contract
1,717,390,179,736
ai-cult-exists-by-2027
Arkhos
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLVY-kYDY0_k6HzlIF128JQa5QLUOlY7lidjyUHL88xWRvLMRM=s96-c
AI Cult exists by 2027
null
null
null
null
null
d6ah7rgeb9t
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ooldz12nxh", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
En0ncv9e19UiqN4Zxz69
public
contract
1,717,390,216,592
what-memefold-post-will-be-voted-be
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which #memefold post will be voted best Manifold meme of 2024?
ooldz12nxh
null
201.443164
YES
8f0cba499437
13ow5zdrazg
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oh561hgiu0n", "label": "AmmonLam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Daniel Tello
cPm8Zayi19YAmCkZu0mR
public
contract
1,717,390,237,127
when-will-apple-break-180-which-day
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
When will Apple break $180? (which day?)
okgucc0prw
null
1,500.749139
NO
73bad314ab77
mn36ufsfwp
false
En8K1OQlFiP299l0BwZTCTZzG3Q2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I hate both but I'm picking Trump because he'll make America collapse the fastest", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
Arkhos
w1FLeke619n7j38hAq94
public
contract
1,717,391,113,886
do-you-support-trump-or-biden
Arkhos
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLVY-kYDY0_k6HzlIF128JQa5QLUOlY7lidjyUHL88xWRvLMRM=s96-c
Do you support Trump or Biden?
null
null
null
null
null
8nl1lv01g3q
false
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not seeing it on the schedule yet 😭 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
niko
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,391,530,602
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Nikos
https://firebasestorage.…a97-2c3621c2928b
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
234.799709
YES
b9ad9369eafa
079q5sbrfhq2
false
tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oh god this is about this tweet isn't it", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Noya
3lknqUQSl1Q7ILLcBuFP
public
contract
1,717,392,158,104
will-ai-displace-social-drinking-wi
NoyaV
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYZ0_H2vY9Mr8HoT1lAqx7RKtsu8hU7Lk1lx7Gr=s96-c
Will AI displace social drinking within 5 years?
null
null
null
null
null
ckx2uhqwyjp
false
7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "note that the true probabilities need to add up to 100 (unless im critically misunderstanding something about, uh, whatever sport this is), and since t...
Interrobang
cZ5U7lWOPL229PmKtcHU
public
contract
1,717,394,047,978
who-will-win-the-final-series-of-th
Interrobang
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c
Who will win the final series of the 2024 NHL playoffs?
null
null
381.514072
NO
bjtilg0umi
sdkvxbrqre
false
8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Note that the definition used here continues to include people who have officially resigned or been excommunicated.", "type": "text" ...
Adele Lopez
VyA1ZahoKIHY01gYPYDy
public
contract
1,717,394,465,430
will-membership-in-the-lds-church-d-a0c4563048e6
adele
https://firebasestorage.…004-d13e976cd5ea
Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year by 2040
null
null
null
null
null
gq0bhgbjbie
false
FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pi2y65pxut", "label": "Sindre", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Weezing
clmLR0viqS7n9jZm3Vag
public
contract
1,717,394,820,770
what-will-happen-in-norway-chess-to
Weezing
https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276
What will happen in Norway Chess tournament? Prop Bets
pi2y65pxut
null
568.429772
NO
e0fb51036b40
fdcqbdfsf1v
false
8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "People are already quite familiar with the usual whitish potato color, and purple intuitively feels like a less appetizing color for starchy foods. So ...
Adele Lopez
0VkdSA7VHkNxSnXD2FjK
public
contract
1,717,394,847,455
will-potatoes-turn-purple
adele
https://firebasestorage.…004-d13e976cd5ea
Will potatoes turn purple?
null
0.206675
60.636235
NO
null
moi0c4s0amo
false
vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Shocked to see this wasn't one at the time of Trump being found guilty, so I added it and Not Guilty for his (or anyone else's) further trials.", ...
Marnix
yDYbgNpoO1er14TAPm9M
public
contract
1,717,395,500,057
which-of-the-following-will-exactly
Marnix
https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d
Which answers will *exactly* match a *full* New York Times front page headline before 2028? [READ DESCRIPTION]
null
null
182.417948
NO
l8u5g05ay7
zv5z0mcz4ei
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My only wish is to have enough mana to bid against these ridiculous predictions.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
MercurialGuesser
mKwIpPdQCEQzTbh6Qqn7
public
contract
1,717,395,894,370
chinese-id-cards-contain-info-about
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Chinese id cards contain info about sibling count or children count
null
null
null
null
null
t74i2tawky7
false
Gbv137XZOHNsFpC3lK4KLR7CgwX2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "good luck!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack Gross-Whitaker
87rQLdcALoPw08Sy1972
public
contract
1,717,396,773,652
will-mohit-agarwal-get-an-emergent
jackgwhit
https://firebasestorage.…ca7-c10af5c4f100
Will I get an Emergent Ventures Grant in 2024?
null
0.453674
4.24133
YES
null
3ef1dcpkj9p
false
de4gRciUwVgOii1cRv2STLIzA2r1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t74i2tawky7", "label": "jackgwhit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mohit Agarwal
87rQLdcALoPw08Sy1972
public
contract
1,717,396,823,798
will-mohit-agarwal-get-an-emergent
mohitagw2789
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJnQGaH38peE1kmpkrVES4PS7UbUYJNGyTWxKuzJbd9h8Zm2D0=s96-c
Will I get an Emergent Ventures Grant in 2024?
t74i2tawky7
null
null
null
null
u34et3eblp9
false
95LgqX2ngfhRrnvy0tegLHkrWtv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "66fedrsgkuc", "label": "deagol", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Long 🐹
CUZZ6V2wrKYx0AfHnfDr
public
contract
1,717,398,443,309
which-companies-will-join-the-sp-50
long
https://firebasestorage.…fb5-b91dfd3608f6
Which companies will join the S&P 500 by 2025? [Universal Free Response Market]
c31a9zow7mj
null
89.041388
YES
tin5fpixqf
5beeagvc3i6
false
95LgqX2ngfhRrnvy0tegLHkrWtv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For some reason there's no NA option", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "mar...
Long 🐹
CUZZ6V2wrKYx0AfHnfDr
public
contract
1,717,398,602,051
which-companies-will-join-the-sp-50
long
https://firebasestorage.…fb5-b91dfd3608f6
Which companies will join the S&P 500 by 2025? [Universal Free Response Market]
c31a9zow7mj
null
89.041388
YES
tin5fpixqf
w88mw3h0b6m
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5beeagvc3i6", "label": "long", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Daniel Tello
CUZZ6V2wrKYx0AfHnfDr
public
contract
1,717,398,830,661
which-companies-will-join-the-sp-50
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Which companies will join the S&P 500 by 2025? [Universal Free Response Market]
c31a9zow7mj
null
200.619078
NO
tin5fpixqf
906zg4iia5u
false
95LgqX2ngfhRrnvy0tegLHkrWtv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w88mw3h0b6m", "label": "deagol", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Long 🐹
CUZZ6V2wrKYx0AfHnfDr
public
contract
1,717,398,881,265
which-companies-will-join-the-sp-50
long
https://firebasestorage.…fb5-b91dfd3608f6
Which companies will join the S&P 500 by 2025? [Universal Free Response Market]
c31a9zow7mj
null
89.041388
YES
tin5fpixqf
1dl4dfb1pkb
false
fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Caleb
Pw0cHJ7VnUmCKDFkQYqA
public
contract
1,717,398,976,662
is-duncan-sabien-a-large-language-m
klob
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c
Is Duncan Sabien a large language model?
null
null
null
null
null
5lj70r29mbq
false
frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If I'm not mistaken, one of the things Godel showed with his incompleteness theorems is that things are true in models, not theories. Since ZFC is a th...
Mana
pbPvTBP9j5HKCFpaN38W
public
contract
1,717,399,201,671
is-the-riemann-hypothesis-true-fals
Mana
https://firebasestorage.…03a-956bf00f7280
Is the Riemann hypothesis true, false or unprovable in ZFC?
null
null
null
null
null
0ux9tlayl5so
false
HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v8jahn74hnc", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Odoacre
csIy55H3ygYhZLDDfSIJ
public
contract
1,717,399,416,132
which-months-will-have-a-record-on
Odoacre
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a
Which month(s) will have a record on Mana sales going forward
65x8cg5e5c8
null
367.804186
NO
7a1lkjco84
lmvbzpksxrb
false
0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3n6rkrOZtXsZ1AyJeWxv", "label": "mattyb", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
colorednoise
m5VihUBViJTDoZCJcd9E
public
contract
1,717,399,706,475
will-costcos-in-us-raise-the-price-346e3c6c38f9
colorednoise
https://firebasestorage.…7c5-3d0b33690749
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2024?
3n6rkrOZtXsZ1AyJeWxv
null
null
null
null
y0kuok2zo3d
false
HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any chinese citizen ? Would a regional be enough or does it have not be national ?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragra...
Odoacre
Scy9VFd3QHbH0hyKLbJr
public
contract
1,717,400,088,032
having-more-children-will-grant-chi
Odoacre
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a
Having more children will grant Chinese citizens a tax advantage through 2030
null
0.666953
70.70572
NO
null
7by6r0o1qpn
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i have very weak priors on the cost of a supercompute cluster. but meta will order 340k, h100s and if you put them in one data center that would be 3bn...
Campbell Hutcheson
BmK6wCA9ol7sjaqB9ZGt
public
contract
1,717,400,181,839
will-openaimicrosoft-officially-con
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?
null
0.593563
2.363251
NO
null
5ryf6xovrrr
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w698pmzqikc", "label": "Adam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
RemNi
HYgyaBBnnu0jaf2x3zWC
public
contract
1,717,400,658,413
will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-200
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
w698pmzqikc
0.878272
48.20369
YES
null
kwhttp76psg
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g3epcczure", "label": "Adam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
RemNi
HYgyaBBnnu0jaf2x3zWC
public
contract
1,717,400,716,156
will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-200
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
9clrh4x1qsq
0.878272
48.20369
YES
null
p4dnxe0wf0a
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "en8vi9wml66", "label": "HWH", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
RemNi
HYgyaBBnnu0jaf2x3zWC
public
contract
1,717,400,780,239
will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-200
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
en8vi9wml66
0.878272
48.20369
YES
null
tln71jwbku
false
95LgqX2ngfhRrnvy0tegLHkrWtv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "thank you ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "label": ...
Long 🐹
CUZZ6V2wrKYx0AfHnfDr
public
contract
1,717,400,782,697
which-companies-will-join-the-sp-50
long
https://firebasestorage.…fb5-b91dfd3608f6
Which companies will join the S&P 500 by 2025? [Universal Free Response Market]
c31a9zow7mj
null
89.041388
YES
tin5fpixqf
wknw9bnv3kq
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y0kuok2zo3d", "label": "Odoacre", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ernie
Scy9VFd3QHbH0hyKLbJr
public
contract
1,717,401,745,334
having-more-children-will-grant-chi
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Having more children will grant Chinese citizens a tax advantage through 2030
y0kuok2zo3d
null
null
null
null
d16jl0s8wuk
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1gr1bqdiowf", "label": "Paulf4db", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ihor Kendiukhov
A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV
public
contract
1,717,401,979,706
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
1gr1bqdiowf
0.395389
19.234326
NO
null
4bdj0qv1t17
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zwq1dm4g31", "label": "AlexanderMiller", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ihor Kendiukhov
A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV
public
contract
1,717,402,017,981
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
zwq1dm4g31
0.395389
19.234326
NO
null
75zetyrojs
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rm5n08ls7t", "label": "colorednoise", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ihor Kendiukhov
A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV
public
contract
1,717,402,073,698
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
rm5n08ls7t
0.395389
19.234326
NO
null
a227jqib6ql
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "abpao138bsa", "label": "AlQuinn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
jkrKwEBIr1GZ2AF8swG1
public
contract
1,717,402,177,309
whats-causing-the-mental-health-cri
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What's causing the mental health crisis among young people of the 2010s-2020s?
abpao138bsa
null
null
null
null
7okl2emnxwt
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hey, if this one is true it's pretty bad, but at least we'll have discovered time travel!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "...
Bruno
jkrKwEBIr1GZ2AF8swG1
public
contract
1,717,402,208,683
whats-causing-the-mental-health-cri
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What's causing the mental health crisis among young people of the 2010s-2020s?
null
null
null
null
null
em2cs2xni6j
false
1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2", "label": "jskf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
aenews
1EThWNpPwqwzgRimLRhi
public
contract
1,717,402,593,025
acx-2024-who-will-win-the-2024-mexi
aenews
https://firebasestorage.…1ae-07ed3f188eea
Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? [ACX 2024]
null
null
12,313.656815
YES
7c44c8f0fff1
vjedrthsyx
false
XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm waiting for PREP to count enough votes to be irreversible, however it's a clear YES.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Kirby Iwaki
0BY1g18ryFaUZTPU90ty
public
contract
1,717,402,679,297
will-morena-win-mexicos-2024-electi
kirby
https://firebasestorage.…a07-87bc48dbb3a4
Will Morena win Mexico's 2024 election by a margin of more than 10%?
null
0.971507
52.044199
YES
null
42tfabpi6k5
false
XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm waiting for PREP to count enough votes to be irreversible, however it's clear this will resolve to Xóchitl Gálvez.", "type": "text" ...
Kirby Iwaki
EyldBRlfOJko4qAJ6XO5
public
contract
1,717,402,752,563
who-will-finish-on-second-place-on
kirby
https://firebasestorage.…a07-87bc48dbb3a4
Who will finish on second place on 2024's Mexico Presidential Election?
null
null
null
null
null
306w0g9fg7
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1e3zcm8glsv", "label": "Arkhos", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ernie
fTrez8ws4v3fyNMtgO0P
public
contract
1,717,403,175,811
ai-cult-exists-by-2027
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
AI Cult exists by 2027
1e3zcm8glsv
0.693077
94.744669
NO
null
th6uw368uh
false
sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k0riqdbszn", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Carlos
rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa
public
contract
1,717,403,354,143
which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-bqmuxd42c5
Carlosab83
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2024 according to Manifold?
k0riqdbszn
null
null
null
null
o93zqa5xjxq
false
LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d7scjgcmd49", "label": "deagol", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Enrico Susatyo
DiHPfmpnovo0YN9ins6f
public
contract
1,717,403,941,597
will-the-market-cap-of-nvda-surpass-c68426a28bee
esusatyo
https://firebasestorage.…a98-6f3b503a06f8
Will the market cap of NVDA surpass MSFT before September 2024?
d7scjgcmd49
0.478913
729.639738
YES
null
4nbj4c65m5
false
LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ngg4szei37", "label": "deagol", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Enrico Susatyo
fvW85lshcVJhziWAUEeT
public
contract
1,717,403,961,318
will-the-market-cap-of-nvda-surpass
esusatyo
https://firebasestorage.…a98-6f3b503a06f8
Will the market cap of NVDA surpass AAPL before September 2024?
ngg4szei37
0.880332
881.041546
YES
null
cn6j4fvkrhf
false
Y1ryST9zg6ZnChYvCzXCFCMes1B2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yup, I lost this", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kabir Kumar
JVSrnYOHtFpwktJV9V9X
public
contract
1,717,404,313,529
will-an-aiamplified-human-team-be-a
KabirKumar
https://firebasestorage.…14b-2f1ac94fa971
Will an AI-amplified human team be able to code a better assistant AI within a day by June 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
f9iaaawi6qu
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What does occupy mean? I believe they'd launch a raid.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
Jessica Evans
8bI2j2k6gEOcBmjQzJX9
public
contract
1,717,404,702,953
will-ireland-be-invaded-by-the-uk-b
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
Will Ireland be invaded by the UK before 2030 in the event of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach in next elections
null
null
null
null
null
k6dkds4hmgm
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k0riqdbszn", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
ismellpillows
rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa
public
contract
1,717,405,192,505
which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-bqmuxd42c5
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2024 according to Manifold?
k0riqdbszn
null
38.380847
YES
j4bhkj2ym5
a1968el3ht7
false
sTPfQiHMUHYtccdM1yL4LqW2BxQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tujeinwds0f", "label": "Shifbru", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Håkon Egset Harnes
M8FHBp63MkbKPVs0Vcjq
public
contract
1,717,405,509,192
will-russia-control-chasiv-yar-by-s
HakonEgsetHarnes
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtestNl4QHWmNiT0lMlj8r39Q4VL3g0qAVjfGEwDy2Vjsg=s96-c
Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on september 1st 2024
tujeinwds0f
null
null
null
null
i11kai3nhe
false
1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Third option: I had factored in the fact that media has obscured and downplayed the felonies by stressing the \"hush money\"(legal) part instead of the...
duN
SUMaeLkVfiyh1sFd6c0y
public
contract
1,717,405,748,861
why-didnt-trumps-election-odds-chan
dgga
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc
Why didn't Trump's election odds change much after he was convicted of 34 felonies?
null
null
null
null
null
nqxohkj3oyn
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "a1968el3ht7", "label": "HakonEgsetHarnes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Eric
M8FHBp63MkbKPVs0Vcjq
public
contract
1,717,406,913,631
will-russia-control-chasiv-yar-by-s
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on september 1st 2024
tujeinwds0f
0.608463
13.744778
YES
null
tw2g0q4vqll
false
sTPfQiHMUHYtccdM1yL4LqW2BxQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nqxohkj3oyn", "label": "Shifbru", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Håkon Egset Harnes
M8FHBp63MkbKPVs0Vcjq
public
contract
1,717,407,643,333
will-russia-control-chasiv-yar-by-s
HakonEgsetHarnes
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtestNl4QHWmNiT0lMlj8r39Q4VL3g0qAVjfGEwDy2Vjsg=s96-c
Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on september 1st 2024
tujeinwds0f
null
null
null
null
kipgwqa10fl
false
shxT6MyMlaSPKcHJhlX64MLYgsh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Eh his fruits gotta be paramecia as he is always seen with fast winds", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ]...
Katakuri
6LRvyFv3EMPPgruQwa9Y
public
contract
1,717,407,648,443
what-type-of-devil-fruit-if-any-doe
Katakuri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLvqqMmQB2HUeoP-CbntH_TWIvtn0bJclyDs2e-h40ohwASrg=s96-c
What type of devil fruit, if any, does Dragon have?
null
null
null
null
null
vherjaul5y
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tw2g0q4vqll", "label": "HakonEgsetHarnes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Eric
M8FHBp63MkbKPVs0Vcjq
public
contract
1,717,407,794,469
will-russia-control-chasiv-yar-by-s
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on september 1st 2024
tujeinwds0f
0.704486
384.352543
YES
null
qmcvvdaq55p
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This resolves Yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ ...
Mqrius
ai8kBg9nLiEuofrxgJLE
public
contract
1,717,409,515,299
will-there-be-a-new-record-for-the
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will there be a new record for the warmest recorded year (globally) before 2028?
null
null
null
null
null
tnmonrw71sr
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3) voters already expected and priced in the felonies ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "do...
Shaked Koplewitz
SUMaeLkVfiyh1sFd6c0y
public
contract
1,717,409,572,380
why-didnt-trumps-election-odds-chan
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Why didn't Trump's election odds change much after he was convicted of 34 felonies?
null
null
null
null
null
iyqkr0d071j
false
XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "90k48iom2fo", "label": "Ernie", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Jacy
qzN2D5VfbhiyUljBbRJX
public
contract
1,717,410,422,512
a-public-ai-generator-can-correctly-0256773c71a1
Jacy
https://firebasestorage.…73f-503ef6cf6c81
A public AI generator can correctly make images of complex 3d object stacking, Jun 1 2024
90k48iom2fo
1
789.488914
NO
null
xjpaf4dqy2
false
XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "25yj6rvjgi2", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jacy
kBS7PSzOTv9nIJSgmGSK
public
contract
1,717,410,649,686
will-any-ai-regulation-be-passed-be
Jacy
https://firebasestorage.…73f-503ef6cf6c81
Will any AI regulation be passed between now and the start of the 119th Congress?
25yj6rvjgi2
0.390707
774.191601
YES
null
cu8n53spygp
false
smBYtuSbWoXtdGHyKlYaiDGVdrr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "SH2iKUQDL1dd4KyiHd8PF7cRq5X2", "label": "StefanoDeSio", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Lemming
dGORP6ggiG7w5YIUGijW
public
contract
1,717,411,231,514
will-israel-install-a-puppet-govern
Lemming
https://firebasestorage.…448-72ac61d21176
Will Israel install a puppet government in Gaza strip and/or West Bank before the end of May 2024?
null
0.04713
531.070201
NO
null
ztngyimwq2p
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves to 99%, the mean poll response.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
n45VSdawML1KPhRQq3m6
public
contract
1,717,411,280,089
how-much-will-we-believe-sbf-commit
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How much will we believe SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse after his trial? [Poll, resolves to avg %]
4mpo2d41x2s
0.919809
0
YES
null
xa02k71nel
false
smBYtuSbWoXtdGHyKlYaiDGVdrr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9gx9MukfFzYSeRMZ0euvMG3vXQr1", "label": "GardenAlt", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Lemming
Vn9qLAxQsI2qV6wGnwAo
public
contract
1,717,411,299,921
will-the-israeli-hostages-in-gaza-b
Lemming
https://firebasestorage.…448-72ac61d21176
Will the Israeli hostages in Gaza be returned by the end of May 2024?
null
0.014928
244.347058
NO
null
9cpcx7n1anf
false
6SzucQZEGZUvgmd1VuSrXBEVaVo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Ben. Alfred
IwG3mfCNryDQ1r4beADw
public
contract
1,717,412,315,313
wlll-the-anc-get-less-that-40-of-th
Cerflerg
https://firebasestorage.…b51-369e0648d5ba
Wlll the ANC get less that 40% of the vote in the May 29, 2024 election?
null
0.06
81.99773
NO
null
3n0lyo5ie9j
false
t0bKoFORwsQpjWltj9khAL2CbLh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The open-source model Deepseek is currently the clear leader in cost-efficiency: (Screenshot from ", "type": "text" }, { ...
Hannes
cnowgnMl9y1YEhE32NUG
public
contract
1,717,412,400,969
is-lecun-right-that-opensource-ai-w
HannesLynchburg
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdfrllG49IxkU9OBLJ85qqdWhf2ikbeI7eT1MMju-Tu=s96-c
Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)
null
null
null
null
null
2r4ar9l0thc
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yd5c32k38yq", "label": "thepurplebull", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
ismellpillows
99yCZIjvIaBjDzpmdnpe
public
contract
1,717,412,411,844
is-there-anyone-who-could-defeat-bi
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
Is there anyone who could defeat Biden in a 1-1 ballot, and also defeat Trump in a 1-1 ballot?
yd5c32k38yq
null
null
null
null
llry37tn6xn
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Simon Grayson
Vqlel5shoIBN16Kz8UwF
public
contract
1,717,412,808,420
uk-general-election-2024-will-refor
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK run in at least 600 seats?
null
0.419357
334.355099
YES
null
7f03wnmfm9w
false
OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Stalinism killed more than Nazism but arguably Stalin wasn't left wing, just a tyrant.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "par...
Bubbles
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,413,233,873
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Lorelai
https://firebasestorage.…bd3-9614af348f98
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
205.716464
YES
8a4b75c9bd8b
vc2xa6ote4f
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "93%?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "pa...
Simon Grayson
hXB2h6uOBydu0UF7IJLI
public
contract
1,717,414,347,531
uk-general-election-2024-what-will
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
UK General Election 2024 - What will Nigel Farage announce at 4:00 today? (Short term market)
null
null
null
null
null
2u2kuwjkow
false
RqkLWQpozOYWQKRjIpMVc7Zwuih1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
George
4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7
public
contract
1,717,415,192,068
did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
George
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucolTGrW4xs83EDx0VNtxPiN28TpixCQHGMXT4FdNEk=s96-c
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
null
0.6
241.712431
YES
null
9cnmc1trc5
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I would take the info about the experiment out of the description, it is adding to discovery of both markets and might skew the test results, you would...
Predictor 🔥
vZxTfEoex4EAgj6fsWRr
public
contract
1,717,415,360,779
will-this-market-have-more-than-50
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Will this market have more than 50 traders by July 1, 2024?
null
0.548815
17.640739
YES
null
bfbwt1zx0u5
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We need to use these percentages somehow to make a meal. I assume that it will become part of the soup discourse? ", "type": "text" }...
Madge
cYTvV7VPSm8xz2FajmmL
public
contract
1,717,415,578,054
what-items-will-be-included-in-the
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
What items will be included in the first meal eaten on the Martian surface?
null
null
null
null
null
p3iutlpl4nr
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bfbwt1zx0u5", "label": "Mad", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Madge
cYTvV7VPSm8xz2FajmmL
public
contract
1,717,415,652,274
what-items-will-be-included-in-the
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
What items will be included in the first meal eaten on the Martian surface?
bfbwt1zx0u5
null
null
null
null
yz073rrzjto
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Andri
OvtCTpXQJnApcZxuHBc5
public
contract
1,717,415,659,624
who-will-win-gielinor-games-4
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Who will win Gielinor Games 4?
null
null
1,246.147747
YES
84f25dde5be5
vhz0vg9opm
false
oTM5dBmBh1aiQBPsyBDhMvHheZt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yz073rrzjto", "label": "andri", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
noney
OvtCTpXQJnApcZxuHBc5
public
contract
1,717,415,828,013
who-will-win-gielinor-games-4
noney
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAstXlydmpqoy7N40v4rx0DkqBzMnYi_09tG46Hye-19bu=s96-c
Who will win Gielinor Games 4?
yz073rrzjto
null
76.978291
YES
00e549cebba6
vjtoye67j3
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vhz0vg9opm", "label": "noney", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Andri
OvtCTpXQJnApcZxuHBc5
public
contract
1,717,415,971,657
who-will-win-gielinor-games-4
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Who will win Gielinor Games 4?
yz073rrzjto
null
1,246.147747
YES
84f25dde5be5
lhua82xgqn
false
99KwOl1fTrgKTbs5cU0eAGHLtFF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vc2xa6ote4f", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
TallUntidyGothGF
hXB2h6uOBydu0UF7IJLI
public
contract
1,717,416,907,189
uk-general-election-2024-what-will
TallUntidyGothGF
https://firebasestorage.…005-666135f0eae5
UK General Election 2024 - What will Nigel Farage announce at 4:00 today? (Short term market)
vc2xa6ote4f
null
232.884718
YES
gkje8vfgz3
zw3bqkz6jgs
false
1Jdvnl9n5HOKswgdJDfXhFcTLW72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "thanks", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tukunya Kalago
XlS91oOsST2HI9NLb0Vr
public
contract
1,717,417,352,665
will-a-us-university-student-be-cau
TukunyaKalago
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLpqS7KLj1gKRI5qQpGB8dDdR435xWyvqYuAX1fytqd9_Zv2w=s96-c
Will a US university student be caught cheating in uni exams using smart glasses (such as Meta Ray Bans) in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
o8t8noi6hc
false
1Jdvnl9n5HOKswgdJDfXhFcTLW72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The allure of casinos lies in their vibrant atmosphere and the thrill of potential winnings. Casinos offer a unique blend of entertainment, excitement,...
Tukunya Kalago
2wKfwMsNasfdos0eRNDB
public
contract
1,717,417,479,186
casino
TukunyaKalago
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLpqS7KLj1gKRI5qQpGB8dDdR435xWyvqYuAX1fytqd9_Zv2w=s96-c
Casino
null
null
null
null
null
9h0vdyq80fv
false
BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n5YmtUiD4hJcbXrpyfwB", "label": "Vorak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
For Truth
SvpCN8Bjkvp1ngm8avGz
public
contract
1,717,417,927,628
if-the-leftright-culture-war-comes-1cc8384e933c
ForTruth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c
If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?
n5YmtUiD4hJcbXrpyfwB
0.58
215.473586
NO
null
nedl9t5aoc8
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
The Official
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,717,418,019,625
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
null
null
null
null
null
cic8m5s816r
false
cAztQZ0renalM03WNxZegsptHIq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This NYT story corrects claims made in the article that based on video evidence. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
@accuracy
pj6WlaTQCDKngwqej4J0
public
contract
1,717,418,725,497
will-the-new-york-times-retract-or
Accuracy
https://firebasestorage.…e3f-b15c4aa57789
Will the New York Times retract or correct all or parts of its story about rape on 10/7
null
null
null
null
null
k7v9544ieqe
false
hEhmF4RJDVUf481WXLs3vE2FpOD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Surely India's just concluded Lok Sabha election qualifies under the rules above. If not, why not, please?", "type": "text" } ]...
Scott Blanchard
3ifOwHSlkhWFaJ5dfxV0
public
contract
1,717,419,211,505
when-will-we-have-the-first-country
ScottBlanchard
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIZTzsWu-u0mEXCaclsO57VQSTExGmmKkBCP1CUMrQ_0eHO=s96-c
Will we have the first country-level e-election by the end of 2040?
null
0.410865
113.231069
YES
null
ec6rgyduqs
false
GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To clarify, if there is an order and cause that’s not at all the order or cause postulated in those studies, this still resolves YES?", "type...
capy
fNbvgxKdVef3ZHS3Vbc0
public
contract
1,717,419,234,631
is-the-sibling-birth-order-effect-o
capybara
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660
Is the sibling birth order effect on homosexuality real?
null
0.444241
17.523094
NO
null
m8u2htibv8
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "imLfRDitQXWffReTIGvJxCvupRg2", "label": "niksaak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Nat
5MLDqLRxigvOyWTBBGam
public
contract
1,717,419,631,471
will-i-an-iphone-user-like-using-an
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will I, an iPhone user, like using an Android phone?
null
null
null
null
null
vv95tpj2oa
false
mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I mean, I'd say that a lot of humanity's quirks can be anticipated if you assume that intelligence is heavily favored by natural selection, but sentien...
Andrew Hartman
DlN3faAPQtF4jxCEccmG
public
contract
1,717,419,692,575
is-the-followings-statement-more-tr
AndrewHartman
https://firebasestorage.…a82-24c9bd44e039
Is the followings statement more true or false: evolution led to consciousness being utilised for survival
null
null
null
null
null
nhuo7tg1rph
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This market is going to make bank on trader fees. 🤑 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc...
Predictor 🔥
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,717,419,780,955
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
null
0.5
387,518.148675
NO
null
mr66pejb4hi
false
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xlulw0zd0fr", "label": "alh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Tomek ⚡ K
tCR44DScVgFitzlbntYM
public
contract
1,717,419,927,451
the-most-popular-wikipedia-article-fb023aa451cf
itsTomekK
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
The most popular Wikipedia article in May 2024? (excl. past winners)
xlulw0zd0fr
null
741.8315
NO
6479aff3d733
b269t1m3jq
false
KRnu3iY3AwOSYCE6RQvkyT07SIS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Relevant: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Hans Peter
SGqlU6HjFHWdDSeoRIC3
public
contract
1,717,420,431,881
will-sweagent-support-groq-api-by-e
HansPeter
https://storage.googleap…RQvkyT07SIS2.png
Will SWE-agent support groq API by end of June 2024
null
0.796277
147.121674
YES
null
r6wsex8czl8
false
czCd79lUs5ZFHvpY7bA5vWiEw122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The sitting president only? Or do former presidents count too?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
Christopher ONeil
SmmZBBcFzmuBLXJ1DMcm
public
contract
1,717,420,796,099
will-another-us-president-be-killed
ChristopherONeil
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcivQLmrcF6Y_Qc_O3YYNpACIr1wq4MxpdZr416kn8WkkYo=s96-c
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
null
null
null
null
null
m0li37485ji
false
mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stop Punting
jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk
public
contract
1,717,420,806,708
will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor
StopPunting
https://firebasestorage.…dd4-50d1db23bb5f
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
null
null
null
null
null
wwmbr0ezam
false
APNHBV8UWYaXuCnsPySq8oUsCjF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r6wsex8czl8", "label": "ChristopherONeil", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
arbitrary 🫃
SmmZBBcFzmuBLXJ1DMcm
public
contract
1,717,420,904,408
will-another-us-president-be-killed
arbitrary
https://firebasestorage.…c06-2328d127f1cb
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
r6wsex8czl8
null
null
null
null
zzsva8uanc
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe it will be so, but the social or drinking alone is important for proper development of self! Mein großvater is rolling around aggressively in his...
Quantum Gambler
3lknqUQSl1Q7ILLcBuFP
public
contract
1,717,420,913,652
will-ai-displace-social-drinking-wi
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
Will AI displace social drinking within 5 years?
null
0.13
730.672528
YES
null
bzaevv375z
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I mean it's clearly both.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Semiotic Rivalry
SUMaeLkVfiyh1sFd6c0y
public
contract
1,717,421,025,657
why-didnt-trumps-election-odds-chan
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Why didn't Trump's election odds change much after he was convicted of 34 felonies?
null
null
null
null
null
l2w1p8xpg3l
false
BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You missed a 3rd possibility: The conviction reduced the predicted odds for some traders while increasing the predicted odds for other traders such tha...
For Truth
SUMaeLkVfiyh1sFd6c0y
public
contract
1,717,421,254,865
why-didnt-trumps-election-odds-chan
ForTruth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c
Why didn't Trump's election odds change much after he was convicted of 34 felonies?
null
null
null
null
null
cgf66yx3iw7
false
wk0KYYHN3sa70KQeJY1TSgf0Odp2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v8rmw1gcc8o", "label": "Bair", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
mjman
OzQ98blOASYf60lphBXO
public
contract
1,717,421,285,497
will-50-of-all-new-car-sales-in-the
mjmandl
https://firebasestorage.…c8b-139b12837742
Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
uikq5ya1oz
0.523883
48,626.125192
YES
null
p0dn3q5br1i
false
nRH4XkIkULgEVGFJe4IJWuUFwGm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Whoa, I just checked the constitution. This is the first time I'm hearing that the National Assembly dissolves if they can't elect a President. Why hav...
Yaseen Mowzer
BCIGoiQT29Ov4S1EvMEl
public
contract
1,717,421,485,411
will-south-africa-have-another-pres
moyamo
https://firebasestorage.…7e8-cbd2d5e4d674
Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029?
null
null
null
null
null
imw983elbb
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
jim
czUyKN7ugwQGrQfjcR7L
public
contract
1,717,421,720,906
how-many-tweets-will-sam-altman-mak
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
How many Tweets will Sam Altman make before announcing the next GPT?
null
0.306141
-0
NO
null
t56qf7sbw0b
false
ANizTgbWIbaIKdPJcLdifo2Qc6m2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vc2xa6ote4f", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
DiscoDan
hXB2h6uOBydu0UF7IJLI
public
contract
1,717,421,806,949
uk-general-election-2024-what-will
DiscoDan
https://firebasestorage.…17a-5e4483ef05ed
UK General Election 2024 - What will Nigel Farage announce at 4:00 today? (Short term market)
vc2xa6ote4f
null
2,594.745641
YES
gkje8vfgz3
bjmjx1tyve
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o9qcdx8pred", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Lion
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,717,421,984,843
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
o9qcdx8pred
null
0
YES
8e9d07a81f93
95movjlktn4
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Which countries? Global?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
J49CsAwPWYs6d1djtRHb
public
contract
1,717,422,228,082
if-ai-becomes-economically-dominant
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
If AI becomes economically dominant will we see Universal Basic Income (UBI) become a reality shortly thereafter?
null
null
null
null
null
oog76n2ag7
false
U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "p4dnxe0wf0a", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Haven
HYgyaBBnnu0jaf2x3zWC
public
contract
1,717,422,702,826
will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-200
HWH
https://firebasestorage.…c25-335c6547f4d1
Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
en8vi9wml66
0.881189
856.823113
YES
null
juw710s3hri
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "“Reaches zone”?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
0ooG1cKn6sOPxsCsRfoy
public
contract
1,717,422,720,086
on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-a7e4be4f3a44
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) where the second stage reaches zone, will landing be nominal?
null
null
null
null
null
230v5dr98dn
false
4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ecgkzini3k", "label": "Base", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Spongpad
QI79jOI2XRSjvXWDbi3m
public
contract
1,717,422,856,180
what-will-happen-this-week-27050206
LBeesley
https://firebasestorage.…624-9f8c6cb1e486
What will happen this Week? (27.05-02.06.2024) [You can add answers]
ecgkzini3k
null
null
null
null
3vt3bje08z7
false
4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ecgkzini3k", "label": "Base", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Spongpad
QI79jOI2XRSjvXWDbi3m
public
contract
1,717,422,898,854
what-will-happen-this-week-27050206
LBeesley
https://firebasestorage.…624-9f8c6cb1e486
What will happen this Week? (27.05-02.06.2024) [You can add answers]
ecgkzini3k
null
null
null
null