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3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I would expect Sauron the deceiver to open a door to maximize the chance of the person choosing to choose incorrectly based on their psychology. ", ...
Connor Dolan
Zofr6Hpiub2cUEOp1RrD
public
contract
1,717,503,489,045
will-chatgpt-get-the-one-monty-to-r
ConnorDolan
https://firebasestorage.…ae7-97b495c2352d
Will ChatGPT get the *One Monty to Rule them All* problem correct on Dec. 1, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
mkwo8yb3uw
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The Official
qxmIFkQHk3fgZ38DdON9
public
contract
1,717,503,667,376
what-will-be-the-next-team-trained-e0b7deaf07d5
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
What will be the next team trained by Jose Mourinho?
y4hrgb2oa8
null
7,046.021785
YES
aubov67ekb
ek8dv16dzwh
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
The Official
eG4My8kjKnMTe4NXFdSE
public
contract
1,717,503,694,513
what-will-be-the-next-team-trained-4866c0faf42d
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
What will be the next team trained by Jose Mourinho, after AS Roma?
65znhaf7uv9
null
7,051.276424
YES
lvxy4lzp7c
su2o63cf6fm
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think this can probably be resolved now, ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKS...
Fion
yeRdT27omnNdjBZKbU9O
public
contract
1,717,503,777,982
uk-general-election-2024-will-diane
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
UK General Election 2024 - Will Diane Abbot stand as a candidate?
null
null
1,631.904344
YES
62549f652f9f
xnvo22llqnp
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This weekend!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Glidden
742BMZB7prTe3vweDpSF
public
contract
1,717,504,394,493
which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
🏇 Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
null
null
0
NO
37f87cd1ceba
81awqwklz76
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vbtfpd7v3fh", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh
public
contract
1,717,504,420,580
-who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four)
92j4x0ka2mh
null
12.624515
NO
58f1389a1390
eqxedsoni39
false
tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would a conditional discharge count as probation for the purpose of this question? Legally they are distinct and it is unclear whether conditional dis...
Jake Lowery
HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg
public
contract
1,717,505,094,076
what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f
JakeLowery
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-5da57c5274f7
What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?
null
null
null
null
null
1x8hg77b30r
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Weather chances still looking good ~ 24h out ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null,...
JRP
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,505,213,243
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
0.617883
856.870633
YES
null
4w0dbv9hocl
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fusfh51o9y5", "label": "JamesGrugett", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
mEID6f2b0a1D1XnJyf9V
public
contract
1,717,505,247,917
will-manifold-add-a-cheaper-tier-fo
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Manifold add a cheaper tier for question creation by the end of June? (e.g. 100 mana cost)
fusfh51o9y5
null
null
null
null
6sc2n2x1e1y
false
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So this is kind of silly, because obviously the thread is predictably going to on hiatus, but alas it has not been 6 months and therefore we must wait ...
Tetra
cud1YVEEWAArIg13OF5B
public
contract
1,717,505,420,650
in-the-prodigal-sorceress-is-the-dr
Tetraspace
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
In the prodigal sorceress, is the Dread Emperor a single real living person?
null
null
null
null
null
bhf5zlv04tt
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Missing option \"rectal\", nothing beats a proper mana enema.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
komplexkonjugat
R0jLnTFmU8iwMXErzaFn
public
contract
1,717,505,479,801
how-would-you-consume-mana-as-a-dru-dz7bv1bvo1
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
How would you consume Mana as a drug?
null
null
null
null
null
wfplzpyz8u
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,506,087,037
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
2,342.142804
NO
9dbcde390667
f8yzi1vi4cl
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "yes", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null...
Christopher Randles
hr3A7CX07DiEGXcdd5Ra
public
contract
1,717,506,159,639
what-will-happen-this-week-03060906
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
What will happen this Week? (03.06-09.06.2024) [You can add answers]
null
null
2,625.527129
NO
vv7rt72grb
7oxws5uxtnm
false
Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mistake: The dates are for June. I messed up, and I'm sorry.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
Jim Fix
43PSklecIF9dCRIWixba
public
contract
1,717,506,197,677
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-a90a7j7kry
JimFix
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on May 4 than it closed on May 3?
null
0.496693
201.775527
NO
null
dso0tkol8cl
false
9ZzhlPfSTLepvh1m3ppqJW5XEi63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Taking NO on base rates, but if I lose, I win.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Apophatic
GR052xgNTPhuVLk7zRgf
public
contract
1,717,506,293,403
will-scott-lynchs-gentleman-bastard
Apophatic
https://firebasestorage.…0c1-dcfb241fd6dd
Will Scott Lynch's "Gentleman Bastard" books be turned into a TV series by 2030?
null
0.509817
81.188732
NO
null
2i0uie4be92
false
Vt7xU7iOuYSReDOkaaVCIdnowus1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9arkrfdmqwb", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Yo-cuddles
j4h8jL02cgr4xvaqBdOW
public
contract
1,717,506,364,934
will-donald-trump-die-of-causes-nat
Yocuddles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLfSvcvtrqoxvB8tvHOAEml6nP00RH-Q2cd4JdCFfJS=s96-c
Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?
9arkrfdmqwb
0.049834
6,411.220051
NO
null
h77q09fcat
false
Vt7xU7iOuYSReDOkaaVCIdnowus1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9arkrfdmqwb", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Yo-cuddles
j4h8jL02cgr4xvaqBdOW
public
contract
1,717,506,588,128
will-donald-trump-die-of-causes-nat
Yocuddles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLfSvcvtrqoxvB8tvHOAEml6nP00RH-Q2cd4JdCFfJS=s96-c
Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?
9arkrfdmqwb
0.049834
6,411.220051
NO
null
n3rys5b3plr
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bvjc2y3i75t", "label": "Nat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Christopher Randles
m5fvgBDFYKk4GrCYaX6P
public
contract
1,717,506,909,769
will-a-commercial-propellant-depot-b01d4fe06bc5
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will a commercial propellant depot exist in orbit by 2030?
bvjc2y3i75t
0.229725
27.036038
YES
null
e0cmoxv0mn
false
etEkYCPEe5emmK4vvbR30H7i5982
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bhf5zlv04tt", "label": "komplexkonjugat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Max Harms
R0jLnTFmU8iwMXErzaFn
public
contract
1,717,507,517,306
how-would-you-consume-mana-as-a-dru-dz7bv1bvo1
MaxHarms
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0xedDuqyhLuCxjkkUd0pH8wOEEFh2BRRMNMgrdTzG1EU=s96-c
How would you consume Mana as a drug?
bhf5zlv04tt
null
null
null
null
2zly9tl2rea
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e0cmoxv0mn", "label": "MaxHarms", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
komplexkonjugat
R0jLnTFmU8iwMXErzaFn
public
contract
1,717,507,895,853
how-would-you-consume-mana-as-a-dru-dz7bv1bvo1
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
How would you consume Mana as a drug?
bhf5zlv04tt
null
null
null
null
fx88388cda4
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
SirCryptomind
RmF6tAOKRK0RgZXvKse1
public
contract
1,717,507,900,505
what-event-will-happen-first-starli
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
What Event Will Happen First: Starliner Flight OR Starship Flight Or NHL Champion is Crowned OR Verstappen <1 Finish?
null
null
null
null
null
qil9myf00ch
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,508,071,613
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
6658x99fcv3
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wfplzpyz8u", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,508,619,175
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
wfplzpyz8u
null
1,788.480505
NO
dccbbaa3142f
pbpc20oganb
false
bLt6k1O80HbqWMzqrsWtsktGLGx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Interesting: March 30, 2024– Penn keeping admit rates quiet although reporting submissions were Up a record amount (10%) since even last year’s record....
Susanne inFrance
uiQ8zCyCScliZXNtrY1S
public
contract
1,717,508,678,914
after-recent-controversies-will-the
SusanneinFrance
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDOs86WcHU8dwcDIj414T7jk_b0RgedXuz4g-gxhsW=s96-c
After recent controversies, will the admission rate for Harvard, MIT, and Penn be higher than last year?
null
null
43.50678
YES
2802acba0476
rhn6t85hi2h
false
bLt6k1O80HbqWMzqrsWtsktGLGx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pbpc20oganb", "label": "SusanneinFrance", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Susanne inFrance
uiQ8zCyCScliZXNtrY1S
public
contract
1,717,508,845,737
after-recent-controversies-will-the
SusanneinFrance
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDOs86WcHU8dwcDIj414T7jk_b0RgedXuz4g-gxhsW=s96-c
After recent controversies, will the admission rate for Harvard, MIT, and Penn be higher than last year?
pbpc20oganb
null
43.50678
YES
2802acba0476
qcdyp60f6i8
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rioal5765n", "label": "DrDerek", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Stuart Slagle
XFNtTZyhyC44YTAbCTQ9
public
contract
1,717,509,108,695
which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo-77661cde04af
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
rioal5765n
null
127.228688
NO
7a842e24f939
up4q9zfwdzd
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Farage has been attacked with a milkshake on his first day in Clacton. Not a serious injury, but clearly assault - resolves YES?", "type": "t...
Noit
M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1
public
contract
1,717,509,119,956
what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
What will be true about the next UK general election?
null
null
2,110.23225
YES
3c70154b905e
b8tv33go7e8
false
TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolve?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
John Carpenter
AveZDSl1zGFouUSt6pHz
public
contract
1,717,509,147,524
will-you-get-this-question-correctl
JohnCarpenter
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbnMbgGdE9ZUUqzpL2THIy9BWVUALl8URxyyYemF9Ib6JghmvmNA=s96-c
Will you get this question correctly?
null
0.749141
1,006.828085
YES
null
hp5x3h78yg8
false
8r2bepHVOBVLIzkIUVIhOU72unn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qcdyp60f6i8", "label": "ovals", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Dr. Derek Harris
XFNtTZyhyC44YTAbCTQ9
public
contract
1,717,509,199,809
which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo-77661cde04af
DrDerek
https://firebasestorage.…68f-50c79076c06f
Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
rioal5765n
null
2,131.903618
NO
fb25dd09b862
k5cgt95cer
false
V3ev7gKdI2cx2TLo6gSUN1UuegI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Greg
6NuccZl5usFBdfaq1HCx
public
contract
1,717,509,272,234
will-goody2-say-rationalussy-before
ibuprofen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIsQQ0IKY5_tQzKYRJh5KoynvPYXjfoPnEDnprOG_km=s96-c
Will GOODY-2 say "rationalussy" before Jimmy Carter's funeral?
null
50
4,751.63869
YES
null
46ypd2t4roo
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "E2hz6YIHpWeS6mQtBAssod0CqnE2", "label": "MathiasBonde", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Semiotic Rivalry
RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo
public
contract
1,717,509,443,931
will-elon-musk-endorse-trump-for-pr
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president?
null
0.4189
6,925.961126
YES
null
qbgzbvdxld9
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "up4q9zfwdzd", "label": "Noit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mike H
M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1
public
contract
1,717,509,680,715
what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
What will be true about the next UK general election?
up4q9zfwdzd
null
579.165082
YES
815ae372c2bb
2ofr6ngbcrx
false
UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k5cgt95cer", "label": "ibuprofen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Greg Rosenthal
6NuccZl5usFBdfaq1HCx
public
contract
1,717,509,758,855
will-goody2-say-rationalussy-before
gregrosent
https://firebasestorage.…ef2-37c836fda9cd
Will GOODY-2 say "rationalussy" before Jimmy Carter's funeral?
k5cgt95cer
null
null
null
null
7f70pxhtx89
false
iQKE9LHS0GN0TCOmXWHGzwBM3Tj1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Five or more playoff series go to seven games can now be resolved", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
Hayden
uAj4hPT7qv0lanUMK4Vs
public
contract
1,717,509,831,399
202324-nba-season-prop-bets
Hayden
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKQ-MWguzXeTZ_PXFF8kxsEl1_wogfZIQOCMO-1gQ0n5XpDuF8=s96-c
2023-24 NBA Season Prop Bets
null
null
664.950964
YES
0fce9dfcd512
bs8zlbp9xvw
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k52zdy4aay", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Snarflak
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,509,840,190
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
6s1umeqvv1g
null
379.722955
NO
5f6db2f28df6
8vfrfm56ofa
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vwcdabbwikg", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Evan
7dkCo6CTx9LfiHP95Z0j
public
contract
1,717,509,902,887
in-50-years-will-earth-have-550ppm
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
In 50 years will earth have 550ppm?
vwcdabbwikg
null
null
null
null
m5ll403tx09
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
CyfralCoot
T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH
public
contract
1,717,509,929,601
which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
4,309.957478
YES
lahsln73pj
1vkl3peog1n
false
4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Boosting this market after adding Yankees and Phillies. The bad teams be pretty bad, so we may end up with several 100 game-winning teams.", ...
Spongpad
VtZU9UQS3TpyoGxtAE1Y
public
contract
1,717,509,946,097
which-mlb-teams-if-any-will-finish
LBeesley
https://firebasestorage.…624-9f8c6cb1e486
Which MLB team(s), if any, will finish the 2024 regular season with 100+ wins?
null
null
null
null
null
rbu3irwawk
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mc answers are now 100", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ ...
chris (strutheo)
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,717,509,966,672
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
null
null
null
null
null
39927umrya1
false
F2jc9n4FB6OOasUMHUGgtogzrl42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Android app has similar issues in the sell shares panel.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "at...
Amaryllis
ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI
public
contract
1,717,510,038,441
bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs
Amaryllis
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2j31d1kIbC6pIFYbWAI1pkquDheFj06csGbOo3=s96-c
Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs
lb2a8ovzbxd
null
null
null
null
qvbjjkr9kzp
false
EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Should've bet more mana xd", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jake
mQnfyRLgaqbv3invrnwy
public
contract
1,717,510,346,235
will-the-mike-tyson-vs-jake-paul-bo
jknowak
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjknowak%2FBRRp3nEZaN.39?alt=media&token=454f0df4-c02c-434c-9760-372e56f4ab6c
Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul boxing match go ahead on 20th July?
null
0
70.899549
NO
null
5g0p1hepod8
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hp5x3h78yg8", "label": "DrDerek", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Stuart Slagle
XFNtTZyhyC44YTAbCTQ9
public
contract
1,717,510,500,590
which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo-77661cde04af
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
rioal5765n
null
127.228688
NO
7a842e24f939
dczbbd39ofl
false
KRnu3iY3AwOSYCE6RQvkyT07SIS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Hans Peter
jhzjsb29e1HMjyDCndwA
public
contract
1,717,511,072,546
will-gpt5-be-released-on-6th-of-jun
HansPeter
https://storage.googleap…RQvkyT07SIS2.png
Will GPT-5 be released on 6th of June?
null
null
null
null
null
y2llouml6bp
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There’s discussion on the below market relevant to Manifold’s showcasing/incentivizing “fun” markets about Manifest. Your market has popped up in my au...
ClubmasterTransparent
yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP
public
contract
1,717,511,823,274
will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts?
null
null
null
null
null
ep49f4zrxt5
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rfbac9ydtyi", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,511,984,059
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
l7d5flccne
null
744.727443
NO
e972eba34d19
4rh8yuf7anb
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i dont think sex positive means they have to feature the market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "t...
chris (strutheo)
yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP
public
contract
1,717,512,603,812
will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts?
null
null
null
null
null
9xrstddtub7
false
P9LqyxXFS8PiM7dsnNDe6ZWkuec2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "anything for today yet!?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
reg connolly
rpINgNCUuLZiHkvZkGjZ
public
contract
1,717,512,733,020
major-league-baseball-mlb-regular-s
regconnolly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4rLHZjzQMZfhNOfesaVVIQMtsUoXFpInKkADBqpsw=s96-c
Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches
null
null
1,753.618483
YES
001fe3a3414f
1u04mqhi6pwh
false
AGgmBGQmELWjLomOOBAYM11Bx1l1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Elon say u gay lulz
yNhazeIQgDVsHCGH59BP
public
contract
1,717,512,958,683
will-joe-biden-live-to-see-the-russ
Elonsayugaylulz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXe0eVwGL1RsJQc0A3RZocVzz8qeF5cB1FifAu8sh6JOf_7A=s96-c
Will Joe Biden live to see the Russia-Ukraine war end?
null
0.676065
270.945978
NO
null
bn17ja2kyke
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bs8zlbp9xvw", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,513,129,167
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
6s1umeqvv1g
null
2.759356
YES
16df8c8459d1
ct10ormwybh
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What ultimately undercuts this is that the leftists who ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": ...
Panfilo
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,513,210,905
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
76.931093
YES
vybijuptrc
w7bjlmptipk
false
9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For what it's worth, we were only off by a week. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Michael
apUrGriOIQKo8EFrSfPW
public
contract
1,717,513,474,430
will-the-uspto-issue-its-12-million
burkh4rt
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c
Will the USPTO issue its 12 millionth utility patent before June?
null
0
659.466977
NO
null
d6xt7yai8nv
false
AGgmBGQmELWjLomOOBAYM11Bx1l1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "TV gif. Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show is wearing a suit as he sits in a barn. He holds a little bundle of hay in his hand and he says, \"Hayyyy,\" before tossing it away and smiling cheesily.", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, ...
Elon say u gay lulz
9re3xe1soLUwdOEudDno
public
contract
1,717,513,492,154
who-will-be-the-next-person-to-win
Elonsayugaylulz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXe0eVwGL1RsJQc0A3RZocVzz8qeF5cB1FifAu8sh6JOf_7A=s96-c
Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?
null
null
null
null
null
7h6q9pg876f
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ct10ormwybh", "label": "Panfilo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,513,813,318
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
ct10ormwybh
null
1,185.946396
YES
36508860cdd0
dgphb9194a
false
AGgmBGQmELWjLomOOBAYM11Bx1l1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Elon say u gay lulz
9re3xe1soLUwdOEudDno
public
contract
1,717,513,814,887
who-will-be-the-next-person-to-win
Elonsayugaylulz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXe0eVwGL1RsJQc0A3RZocVzz8qeF5cB1FifAu8sh6JOf_7A=s96-c
Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?
d6xt7yai8nv
null
null
null
null
3tnqruzpwqc
false
xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thoughts?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Magnus Hambleton
C8JUHrtHLPJD2L0thkv1
public
contract
1,717,513,841,753
by-2025-gpts-are-proven-to-be-able
Mag
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c
By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data.
null
0.368343
35.205915
NO
null
sxqlcft825
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this a “play” market?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Predictor 🔥
4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7
public
contract
1,717,513,902,368
did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
null
0.62
-0
NO
null
fwd0vatmnnr
false
ZB1ZaRBPQJMEg08lQpXfzEXCb9L2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Bob
lAZa8y1hNMOVUkdV48FT
public
contract
1,717,513,923,803
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-start-dating
sponge
https://firebasestorage.…783-ba7fb9e884d1
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky start dating Aella at some point in 2024?
null
0.054117
381.089988
YES
null
opi29ch9vrs
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" ...
Snarflak
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,513,979,266
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
379.722955
NO
5f6db2f28df6
vi75c04qcg
false
BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How would this market possibly distinguish between the options?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
For Truth
GP7FeJsbtU5Uh2efttSS
public
contract
1,717,513,980,468
if-we-discover-time-travel-what-kin
ForTruth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c
If we discover time travel, what kind will it be?
null
null
null
null
null
s3cxfx5j6l
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The Official
BP2V3NIE4an0IYtmyxlJ
public
contract
1,717,514,081,306
binance-collapses-before-june
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Binance collapses before June
0godx2jup69m
0.01
1,468.508784
NO
null
4tc9biawa2v
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jlukebpzbtr", "label": "Arky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Plasma Ballin'
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,514,084,056
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
jlukebpzbtr
null
1,185.946396
YES
36508860cdd0
foj10c4mojb
false
NiiLeUCCgVZygGyO9fV60N8rUgp2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Program was full didn't accept anyone off the waitlist ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "att...
peppapig69
rhG8XpQMBYReut5LoZZD
public
contract
1,717,514,194,841
will-i-get-into-uf-sstp
meth124
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKohcNIxQT_OOV-qB7OTv2f5M2bUckPX89OHWlyG1GstUI=s96-c
Will I get into UF SSTP?
null
0.59
61.215347
YES
null
asm78d05nt
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Derek Gee leads after three stages", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
IAiuorpnA7XqE1hSlNYF
public
contract
1,717,514,287,922
after-stage-3-of-the-2024-criterium
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
After Stage 3 of the 2024 Critérium du Dauphiné, who will wear the Maillot Jaune?
null
null
521.364653
YES
tltuh5rabg
hwlegu5bgy
false
2BxXRsWcjIU3OTyyhyjac7yyy4P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This market is ridiculous. We've only been keeping track of the temperature for 100 years, and the accuracy is questionable. ", "type": "text...
Kakonomics
UgDySInslzxKjUX9hB1x
public
contract
1,717,514,360,436
will-may-2024-be-the-hottest-may-on
Yoae
https://firebasestorage.…9b9-ed72121a5535
Will May 2024 be the hottest May on record?
null
0.975797
681.642687
NO
null
3yhku0ag0of
false
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "stvqzkju6m8", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bionic
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,514,382,897
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
BionicD0LPH1N
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
0.951016
0
NO
null
p6wxz2doi9o
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3yhku0ag0of", "label": "BionicD0LPH1N", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,514,473,062
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
0.951016
1,143.670114
YES
null
d0puysk1n2f
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "either way everyone is voting yes on this, i'd be more worried about resolving in a direction that would be confusing to all the traders, since clearly...
chris (strutheo)
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,514,566,250
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
0.951016
1,143.670114
YES
null
ybil2n007ul
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Djokovic is out. I will resolve the market once the results are on the ATP website", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragr...
Stuart Slagle
2VuCTw4WpIcqiySInhv1
public
contract
1,717,514,573,579
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-nov
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
To which is the last round that Novak Djokovic will advance in the 2024 FRENCH OPEN tournament? 🎾
null
null
1,992.074444
NO
23de3d5f636
xndbkn677ym
false
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yavm37b5qtk", "label": "EduardoFilippi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ansel
ogCmoCcIVjvrbG9OWd0D
public
contract
1,717,514,592,058
will-biden-issue-a-pardon-for-donal
Ansel
https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1
Will Biden issue a pardon for Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election
cerxscyzc2
0.053678
189.91441
YES
null
yf6c6l37zb
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3yhku0ag0of", "label": "BionicD0LPH1N", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
SirCryptomind
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,514,615,063
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
null
null
null
null
6y8ak98x2mn
false
8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "UKIP have performed well in this area before, so I thought Other might be higher here since Reform have a candidate", "type": "text" ...
GooGhoul
K66cLOlFBdSwVgDjI2Zh
public
contract
1,717,514,622,098
uk-general-election-which-party-wil-4c251a49726d
GooGhoul
https://firebasestorage.…e8f-79dd2d8c953b
UK General Election: Which party will win Hamble Valley?
null
null
null
null
null
f7wrrli02vg
false
adacMmaulIhc3gDusLffuvzzXTS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there a ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Barb Predicts
goVdTD2RcwLhDYzjrGnj
public
contract
1,717,514,670,474
who-will-win-the-smash-bros-ultimat
BarbPredicts
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLT1LFLGGX12IDwTRY5Kh2YM53iLs0BKB1VZnsMa8OAvfPHNg=s96-c
Who will win the Smash Bros. Ultimate tournament at the Manifest Summer Camp?
null
null
70.455954
NO
n7s61ilowb
ee0cjsu1ux4
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pw6my2nln4l", "label": "Anime", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Niel S
nDvvM2NqhiHswFYTmwS7
public
contract
1,717,514,672,034
will-narendra-modi-be-the-pm-of-ind
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Will Narendra Modi be the PM of India in 2024?
pw6my2nln4l
null
null
null
null
5r5siflztvg
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will Djokovic be back for Wimbledon?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "c...
Stuart Slagle
2VuCTw4WpIcqiySInhv1
public
contract
1,717,514,725,710
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-nov
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
To which is the last round that Novak Djokovic will advance in the 2024 FRENCH OPEN tournament? 🎾
null
null
1,992.074444
NO
23de3d5f636
f7fgf9l9hp
false
Qhe20Uqz28Q3q7fhPHRvTs6pcZI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ee0cjsu1ux4", "label": "NielS", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Animesh Jha
nDvvM2NqhiHswFYTmwS7
public
contract
1,717,515,080,650
will-narendra-modi-be-the-pm-of-ind
Anime
https://storage.googleap…PHRvTs6pcZI2.png
Will Narendra Modi be the PM of India in 2024?
pw6my2nln4l
0.971343
2,764.02311
NO
null
zvnhsayh0r
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7h6q9pg876f", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Panfilo
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,515,221,511
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
ct10ormwybh
null
76.931093
YES
vybijuptrc
ck4b6k6nxth
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yf6c6l37zb", "label": "SirCryptomind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,515,333,388
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
0.951016
2,640.298571
NO
null
667mgvarpt9
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ck4b6k6nxth", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,515,554,656
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
0.951016
1,143.670114
YES
null
3y4hq861fe
false
pB8wGgqET7Vy4UKEA3fzF080UgN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "More than one person voted \"vanilla extract\" -> this thing is gonna be bitter as hell.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
K4IICHI
PqUHmGF921vb1Dpmo3fz
public
contract
1,717,515,603,377
manifold-makes-a-cake-ingredients-p
K4IICHI
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJP-owWz4G_so5yF1KxYH7I8tOL4M_EyDrdoBKPpMbz2xU=s96-c
Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below.
null
null
null
null
null
w8m34znx9pm
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rbu3irwawk", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,717,515,621,147
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
rbu3irwawk
0.350085
166.666667
NO
null
62vvxkiimj4
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w8m34znx9pm", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Predictor 🔥
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,717,515,670,119
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
rbu3irwawk
0.350085
0
NO
null
mmrhjkoglbl
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please consider adding Willie Nelson after the next cull. He has even self-memed about it “The Internet said I had passed away”", "type": "te...
ClubmasterTransparent
LkPCpjA6WImIfMByv4Un
public
contract
1,717,515,748,792
universal-death-market-which-public
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
null
null
458.055782
YES
b2ec3df9a8c9
gzf8j76uw2
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fwd0vatmnnr", "label": "sponge", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
lAZa8y1hNMOVUkdV48FT
public
contract
1,717,515,756,415
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-start-dating
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky start dating Aella at some point in 2024?
fwd0vatmnnr
1
0
NO
null
54cclv5x8q3
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "also since when has training been only electricity and hardware, i thought that number involved other costs typically ", "type": "text" ...
chris (strutheo)
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,515,760,915
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
0.951016
1,143.670114
YES
null
7ou94o2kysy
false
5xYMa7OFYFaurldRbLRwLO0T1fE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Update: No girlfriend yet. I'm on a few dating apps but it hasn't gone well- no dates. I've also tried asking out women in person but they're typically...
Joe C
qi6H5uRFpxRRpWceWlhw
public
contract
1,717,515,763,071
will-i-have-a-girlfriend-in-2024
JoeC
https://firebasestorage.…497-a7ee26bf3490
Will I have a girlfriend in 2024?
null
0.27868
877.842095
NO
null
a0vqx3f5nxk
false
8dboiK130XNESzFh0uztbNkfcxa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What are the cumulative wear-hours for apple vision pro in 2024? I suspect not that high", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Will
0RB0yzqx7DDjKjsG81Kc
public
contract
1,717,515,796,076
someone-dies-wearing-apple-vision-p-5b9624f299e0
wrhall
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLy8Q3CWCvkDqnporNAUQ-xDxOZHF8NzmJa32mXx3Dw5kDlqRfw=s96-c
Someone dies wearing Apple Vision Pro in 2024
null
0.163388
29.523746
NO
null
it9li6d0kj
false
5xYMa7OFYFaurldRbLRwLO0T1fE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "75bo9h2g5z3", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joe C
qi6H5uRFpxRRpWceWlhw
public
contract
1,717,515,845,307
will-i-have-a-girlfriend-in-2024
JoeC
https://firebasestorage.…497-a7ee26bf3490
Will I have a girlfriend in 2024?
75bo9h2g5z3
0.27868
877.842095
NO
null
az34csm2s8
false
j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pxd9p9n3ual", "label": "dominic", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jim Hays
LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj
public
contract
1,717,515,923,676
will-a-large-language-models-beat-a
JimHays
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
8v8t3cosmkt
0.402213
44,167.705258
NO
null
44dmcljtee4
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fwd0vatmnnr", "label": "sponge", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
lAZa8y1hNMOVUkdV48FT
public
contract
1,717,516,106,056
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-start-dating
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky start dating Aella at some point in 2024?
fwd0vatmnnr
null
null
null
null
4eetscuenhy
false
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
Bionic
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,516,313,250
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
BionicD0LPH1N
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
0.951016
0
NO
null
6t12pk6bkwa
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3y4hq861fe", "label": "K4IICHI", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Madge
PqUHmGF921vb1Dpmo3fz
public
contract
1,717,516,346,619
manifold-makes-a-cake-ingredients-p
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below.
3y4hq861fe
null
null
null
null
wlxtqu0kymf
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "667mgvarpt9", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,516,381,756
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
0.951016
2,640.298571
NO
null
dfjy6qp8c5g
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Note that any commentary on which ingredients are lacking / in excess risks directing poll results. ", "type": "text" } ], ...
Madge
PqUHmGF921vb1Dpmo3fz
public
contract
1,717,516,407,700
manifold-makes-a-cake-ingredients-p
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below.
null
null
null
null
null
fcavca5pknc
false
WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "test", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Hillary Clinton
IkxCZ1KxXUgH2EFy6Pbd
public
contract
1,717,516,453,284
will-gme-reach-50-before-ether-end
HillaryClinton
https://firebasestorage.…d4f-ddf881047e95
Will GME reach $50 before ether end of June 2024
null
0.268272
53.33993
NO
null
czla1yqx9z
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "935551uyixw", "label": "Jack_Rose", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1
public
contract
1,717,516,608,577
what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What will be true about the next UK general election?
qw98fxt809
null
24.375
YES
ded45ea953b7
cumnk15ger
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems hard to track, ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", ...
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,516,842,448
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
147.121674
YES
0v2h7upen3
ag16dimjzsr
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cumnk15ger", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
stefanie
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,516,894,310
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
cumnk15ger
null
1,174.636623
NO
5c7be309f31e
3dk08kia7d2
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cumnk15ger", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,516,898,408
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
cumnk15ger
null
2,342.142804
NO
9dbcde390667
qpxkt1n2t5n
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3dk08kia7d2", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,516,960,847
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
cumnk15ger
null
2,342.142804
NO
9dbcde390667
myio6020po
false
U63xexgO2Cebw3ZnyRHJ9ssHfui2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The U.S. basically said “we don’t see any way for Israel to evacuate that many people from Rafah that quickly, we think it will take months” and then I...
Eliot
9mkpts1kVKuIm7SOXE9B
public
contract
1,717,516,970,383
if-israel-invades-rafah-will-they-h
eliot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfDdlMXLAUeGjbpftcJiAgOHaluXWk-aT2uLji8EylC6WiZ=s96-c
If Israel invades Rafah, will they have a reasonable plan for evacuating civilians from there?
null
0.553576
247.600575
YES
null