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yl24olsga4r
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "as a bayesian average rating myself, I must praise the devs for this", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ],...
Bayesian
k3FZJVDnStOooT849PhS
public
contract
1,717,526,918,311
will-manifold-revert-use-bayseian-a
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Manifold revert "Use bayseian average hit rate for user topic score #2659" in June?
null
null
null
null
null
iycbq0ahyi7
false
yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is barbaric", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
case
qeVop08ynYmEmTfzcGhn
public
contract
1,717,526,992,325
will-they-bring-back-butterfinger-b
case
https://firebasestorage.…a3b-d765464b70da
Will they bring back Butterfinger Buzz or another caffeinated Butterfingers product before the end of 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
cghg1ddy59
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iycbq0ahyi7", "label": "case", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
chris (strutheo)
qeVop08ynYmEmTfzcGhn
public
contract
1,717,527,295,977
will-they-bring-back-butterfinger-b
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will they bring back Butterfinger Buzz or another caffeinated Butterfingers product before the end of 2030?
iycbq0ahyi7
0.308277
19.090909
NO
null
m80ly9z98vh
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9eq32uuqf59", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Mich
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,717,527,408,536
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
24txx2vmyc7
0.640036
567.150293
YES
null
w7dnhbz19p
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "eli5 what the new home feed does? show you stuff you bet on and do well at?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
chris (strutheo)
k3FZJVDnStOooT849PhS
public
contract
1,717,527,425,161
will-manifold-revert-use-bayseian-a
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold revert "Use bayseian average hit rate for user topic score #2659" in June?
null
null
null
null
null
s75d0r2bee
false
lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "with praise to Machine God, the Quest for Knowledge shall continue", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
Ender Ting
k3FZJVDnStOooT849PhS
public
contract
1,717,527,624,481
will-manifold-revert-use-bayseian-a
AnT
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c
Will Manifold revert "Use bayseian average hit rate for user topic score #2659" in June?
null
0.305034
62.89709
NO
null
xhpvc5kq9n
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "eqxedsoni39", "label": "JakeLowery", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Dan
HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg
public
contract
1,717,527,765,991
what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?
eqxedsoni39
null
0
NO
45966ps9r9
fju3aognlge
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Presumably by \"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ {...
Bayesian
T2r5rw1zPZLPRxvSwiEj
public
contract
1,717,527,957,856
will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-ic56nuz8x5
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will the S&P 500 index close higher on June 4 than it closed on June #?
null
null
null
null
null
9th99obcvna
false
GREZBxguKqT7Ro2Ch6OKxjyHeyh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't know. Just posting here to signal emotional support.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type...
SYMH
yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP
public
contract
1,717,528,059,473
will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati
HakeemYates
https://firebasestorage.…3a7-76558a85a55f
Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts?
null
null
null
null
null
by1phfuy28t
false
2aM5y7dS99aaiYULbfT4Ii2b9P73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3zebrq0kymf", "label": "lisamarsh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
g00b
BF8rAeYD9YCynwdFdReW
public
contract
1,717,528,073,962
who-will-be-the-next-conservative-p
jaygooby
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtez5GIZBQ689tOJ1XXiC-xDkLIALOdynKY4r4VouRN5HIA=s96-c
Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader?
3zebrq0kymf
null
216.702876
YES
ce735de1ee9c
gsx5ygs89u8
false
3os8dDHZebXXR7S0j0LgnSTXJ7L2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "p5pwasefix", "label": "SusanneinFrance", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
hominidan
JMjByCUJ3N3uekklobxL
public
contract
1,717,528,122,149
will-anyone-very-famous-claim-to-ha-c5a9592aa1a2
hominidan
https://firebasestorage.…1cd-ececcc4cf2f0
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2024?
p5pwasefix
0.478574
206.046462
NO
null
fe1ccfb8bwi
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't understand the question.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
O4U48w4hTIn9epzQrNrZ
public
contract
1,717,528,332,242
if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?
null
null
null
null
null
csxuhr2hf1s
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolving NO based on the information discussed here, as well as the fact that MLB considers the matter closed. ", "type": "text" }, ...
Kevin Burke
xJM1sy9evX0nA3RCG5lV
public
contract
1,717,528,505,530
were-any-of-the-45-million-in-sport
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Was Shohei Ohtani or his interpreter betting on Major League Baseball specifically?
null
null
null
null
null
7jor9zv3e2v
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "MLB considers the matter closed. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks"...
Kevin Burke
kfP6E2MchguBuuSE0nLY
public
contract
1,717,528,550,135
will-shohei-ohtani-serve-be-suspend
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Shohei Ohtani be suspended for at least one game in connection with Ippei's sports betting?
null
0.236789
834.10907
NO
null
sw799tzlhnk
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Both the US Attorney and MLB consider the matter closed. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content":...
Kevin Burke
lfKTdLn3ROZE6Ab5Zn8N
public
contract
1,717,528,575,955
will-shohei-ohtani-be-convicted-of
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Shohei Ohtani be convicted of or plead guilty to a crime related to the gambling scandal?
null
0.194513
824.325696
NO
null
q2umkclag2n
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolving NO based on the information available in this story. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "con...
Kevin Burke
gE3OULQe8gWaSPetAcRO
public
contract
1,717,528,609,896
was-shohei-ohtani-the-person-making
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Was Shohei Ohtani the person making the bets that incurred $4.5 million in gambling debt?
null
null
null
null
null
8kiws8yw6f
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I've made an item for me making the cake within a week of the poll closing which I'll only bet yes on ", "type": "text" } ], ...
Madge
fD7rBvdUD5b9m2rQdOr2
public
contract
1,717,528,658,570
what-will-be-true-of-the-cake-that
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
What will be true of the cake that manifold makes? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
2,111.690683
YES
m68eo8z6lf
nru4gnfq7i
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What exactly is the bottleneck, you get plenty of matches, but you don't like any of their conversations? ", "type": "text" } ]...
Benjamin Ikuta
qi6H5uRFpxRRpWceWlhw
public
contract
1,717,528,841,611
will-i-have-a-girlfriend-in-2024
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I have a girlfriend in 2024?
75bo9h2g5z3
null
null
null
null
43ol5n8gsft
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What's the current count? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
bbyF1T7OVjSmUoJrpwQv
public
contract
1,717,529,267,935
how-many-attendees-will-test-positi
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
How many attendees will test positive for COVID during summer camp?
null
null
null
null
null
jeg3zx6o8xn
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sophy Ridge suggesting this is a possibility", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Noit
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,529,357,845
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
97.061477
NO
52c0823e1b54
2pzdry2n57d
false
js1u8BIyzjVoBjkM1YQgueA0bav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I notice the range starts at 3, which I think means you're counting the two who tested positive at LessOnline. AFAIK I'm the only one who's tested posi...
JohnofCharleston
bbyF1T7OVjSmUoJrpwQv
public
contract
1,717,529,390,575
how-many-attendees-will-test-positi
JohnofCharleston
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7uw9wqj12zSkINvp2TjDpvLAn3j0gX7j7-RLYCrA=s96-c
How many attendees will test positive for COVID during summer camp?
null
null
358.298005
YES
2a2ja6ek4d
c5a5edxti6t
false
PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jeg3zx6o8xn", "label": "Noit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Lisa Marsh
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,529,413,925
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
lisamarsh
https://firebasestorage.…baf-262c369f8514
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
jeg3zx6o8xn
null
35.925103
YES
788f64453466
mqsd8yebrg
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "c5a5edxti6t", "label": "lisamarsh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Noit
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,529,523,365
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
jeg3zx6o8xn
null
97.061477
NO
52c0823e1b54
nxqsd06q5x
false
K894Cxf8YVes6KQAl2decpJZw3g2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2pzdry2n57d", "label": "JohnBennett", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
acertain
bbyF1T7OVjSmUoJrpwQv
public
contract
1,717,529,607,104
how-many-attendees-will-test-positi
acertain
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfv9vubDnpIgZLrVK6b07K5kMFgwabVS-b5H4RaP3o9LE=s96-c
How many attendees will test positive for COVID during summer camp or LessOnline?
2pzdry2n57d
null
null
null
null
y5uzjdvxsyc
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He is ok with going to jail because he will still have secret service protection Bwhaahaa", "type": "text" } ], "type": "...
Christopher Randles
O56c3rSmxAc9WrHOL9Ye
public
contract
1,717,529,633,096
will-secret-service-protection-be-w
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Secret Service protection be withdrawn from Donald Trump prior to the presidential election in November?
null
null
null
null
null
aicw1kxi12t
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
SirCryptomind
8SkxZAfxh8mEvZA5iTmK
public
contract
1,717,529,652,102
will-sergio-perez-retain-his-red-bu
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Will Sergio Pérez retain his Red Bull racing seat until the end of his contract?
null
0.859266
815.603564
YES
null
kmn0el8w2yl
false
K894Cxf8YVes6KQAl2decpJZw3g2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "43ol5n8gsft", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
acertain
bbyF1T7OVjSmUoJrpwQv
public
contract
1,717,529,662,025
how-many-attendees-will-test-positi
acertain
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfv9vubDnpIgZLrVK6b07K5kMFgwabVS-b5H4RaP3o9LE=s96-c
How many attendees will test positive for COVID during summer camp or LessOnline?
43ol5n8gsft
null
3,066.16289
YES
2a2ja6ek4d
wu24jat472
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Noit
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,529,772,647
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
97.061477
NO
52c0823e1b54
fbjjymwogit
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "two days to go?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "con...
stefanie
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,529,824,292
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
1,025.222535
YES
8bca377e66b7
3g212m5k8fa
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "market like \"will 20 manifold api services be made from users on this market to other users on this market, by the end of july?\" where the idea is th...
Bayesian
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
public
contract
1,717,529,898,425
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
null
0.576911
331.626449
YES
null
aq19k43tklj
false
v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mqhm1s0uzh", "label": "Santiago", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Krantz
O4U48w4hTIn9epzQrNrZ
public
contract
1,717,529,907,279
if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask
Krantz
https://firebasestorage.…804-fed8dc551e61
If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?
mqhm1s0uzh
0.804154
1,471.216744
YES
null
yht97izsxrd
false
v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fe1ccfb8bwi", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Krantz
O4U48w4hTIn9epzQrNrZ
public
contract
1,717,530,174,575
if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask
Krantz
https://firebasestorage.…804-fed8dc551e61
If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?
fe1ccfb8bwi
0.804154
1,471.216744
YES
null
c7x2m2r84m7
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "630gxg2re36", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Muga Sofer
Rk0dN9qzOsk6VQ20GSW8
public
contract
1,717,530,247,824
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-fr-bwdw2i86e5
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, June 7th, 2024?
sy3pyamitfr
null
189.389559
NO
dgmad3ay2f
i4ondwd2gp
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "aegpzwjc4y", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,530,276,976
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
cumnk15ger
null
2,342.142804
NO
9dbcde390667
uwp9frrwu79
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "chocolate tasting short fuse 🍫 🧨 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
oQK9yhPb8xl41hYYzyzP
public
contract
1,717,530,293,018
which-chocolate-will-be-the-crowd-f
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which chocolate will be the crowd favorite at my Chocolate 101 session today?
null
null
null
null
null
u98k9hb6zmo
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is it only things candidates say? e.g. what if host mentions them in introduction?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragra...
Christopher Randles
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,530,361,721
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
null
null
null
rn2beuznn1
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why would flexport be able to outperform shipping institutions such as Lloyds, Clarkson's etc? (", "type": "text" }, { ...
IY
rB6cE6FteTvCCFBPWUUw
public
contract
1,717,530,467,467
will-the-flexport-internal-predicti
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)?
null
0.775266
368.298395
NO
null
jp4042d3bjf
false
nxWb9VUvW5OIt3ZMZGx539e7wwj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7jor9zv3e2v", "label": "KevinBurke", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Nick
kfP6E2MchguBuuSE0nLY
public
contract
1,717,530,501,482
will-shohei-ohtani-serve-be-suspend
Nick6d8e
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcku2OByTtsSganUOQTj7dO0LitB7iNXccVi7rX6tBRZwo=s96-c
Will Shohei Ohtani be suspended for at least one game in connection with Ippei's sports betting?
7jor9zv3e2v
null
null
null
null
q2gkndnbsna
false
pGpHCp39xRWg7ovlibnuwwUbLVx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What happens if he doesn’t play?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Computer 1
UyVGCNId6YK7XAvJSFd3
public
contract
1,717,530,608,630
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-nov-seo1q4quoh
Computer1
https://storage.googleap…ibnuwwUbLVx2.png
To which is the last round that Novak Djokovic will advance in the 2024 Wimbledon tournament? 🎾
null
null
null
null
null
gr1vbslxzoq
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m80ly9z98vh", "label": "Mich", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Kongo Landwalker
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,717,530,618,012
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
24txx2vmyc7
0.640036
180.678121
NO
null
wegwhsb2yi
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m80ly9z98vh", "label": "Mich", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Kongo Landwalker
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,717,530,668,763
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
24txx2vmyc7
0.640036
180.678121
NO
null
koq4b807pt
false
SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "idvxrnb3f2", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Shump
IzExoM3bJGFllOBkPTeT
public
contract
1,717,530,696,826
will-manifold-fix-leagues-in-h1-202
Shump
https://firebasestorage.…b42-86292dabc67f
Will Manifold fix loans in H1 2024?
o0w25utv3vt
null
null
null
null
1aihd9mk5t8
false
SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I will keep this going until close on the off chance that loans will come back but will be requesting an NA on close", "type": "text" ...
Shump
IzExoM3bJGFllOBkPTeT
public
contract
1,717,530,810,650
will-manifold-fix-leagues-in-h1-202
Shump
https://firebasestorage.…b42-86292dabc67f
Will Manifold fix loans in H1 2024?
o0w25utv3vt
null
null
null
null
feux9ukk4p
false
SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g2c68p51qg", "label": "TracyHarms", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Shump
IeDZTjGXwF9CtdDJB7iE
public
contract
1,717,530,867,452
will-israel-attempt-to-make-gazans
Shump
https://firebasestorage.…b42-86292dabc67f
Will Israel attempt to make Gazans leave "voluntarily"?
g2c68p51qg
null
null
null
null
p00zuukgpao
false
1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is really silly, but Trump doesn’t count by market description. Not only did he not go to any debates, he didn’t qualify for any of the debates si...
Joshua
cgY65E6IDVYWveUXOmPy
public
contract
1,717,530,942,026
who-will-run-in-the-republican-prim
JoshuaB
https://firebasestorage.…3b9-ee28a908e5dd
Who will run in the Republican primary for President (2024)?
null
null
1,709.953697
YES
dae21bfe74ad
ns0slfnj2n
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "These numbers underrate England and France's chances.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc...
Gaz Downright
XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF
public
contract
1,717,530,945,215
which-country-will-win-euro-2024
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Which country will win Euro 2024?
dptibf3qghq
null
482.096647
YES
6099ca6cbcc8
nuhnbzt2t2
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wouldn’t it be limited to objectively resolvable questions? Not “Does my boyfriend like my shirt.” Or “Is there life beyond Earth.” How would it learn ...
ClubmasterTransparent
O4U48w4hTIn9epzQrNrZ
public
contract
1,717,530,999,289
if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?
null
null
null
null
null
9dt5l80wr3a
false
SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Shump
9mkpts1kVKuIm7SOXE9B
public
contract
1,717,531,004,753
if-israel-invades-rafah-will-they-h
Shump
https://firebasestorage.…b42-86292dabc67f
If Israel invades Rafah, will they have a reasonable plan for evacuating civilians from there?
null
null
null
null
null
smkg5vaiwj
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wlzlne5dft", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Soli ꩜
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,531,052,700
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
ld2b2bzp9xq
null
null
null
null
5fb949vlq89
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "c7x2m2r84m7", "label": "MugaSofer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
Rk0dN9qzOsk6VQ20GSW8
public
contract
1,717,531,058,506
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-fr-bwdw2i86e5
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, June 7th, 2024?
sy3pyamitfr
null
null
null
null
2azulv6rbut
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good luck hope they all go well.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,717,531,064,156
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
24txx2vmyc7
0.640036
128.792262
YES
null
9rs78jtp3j
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1pr4yk8zcvr", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
UpKuSEjaDAGTB7lldmgq
public
contract
1,717,531,224,434
will-there-be-threats-of-violence-i
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will there be threats of violence in connection to Israel at Eurovision?
htutyfyh6p8
null
null
null
null
pze5nb14wxt
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zilvxp945d", "label": "GastonKessler", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
Tketanh4aGZwo9iqI8jl
public
contract
1,717,531,265,283
will-there-be-a-third-party-us-pres-5cqfsg2bt5
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will there be a third party US president before 2100.
3n5yb5x4xcv
null
null
null
null
vu3h6kzz2ii
false
KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He did it 🎉 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contr...
nic
jJJoA9x66ejjccZDZ0Zj
public
contract
1,717,531,577,444
will-my-friend-reach-2000-elo-bulle
nic_kup
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c
Will my friend reach 2000 ELO (Bullet) on Lichess in 2024?
null
0.618543
810.202955
YES
null
mk0dcdvgvtc
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ukraine was mentioned by Starmer - resolved YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,531,708,405
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
yeb0u27ed1f
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Depends on what’s making you wakeful.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
zNJVJFhxSKGSr2dyopv7
public
contract
1,717,531,998,979
will-trazodone-reduce-my-insomnia
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Will trazodone reduce my insomnia?
null
null
null
null
null
bekseu6gbnp
false
SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Shump
En7HiaUVW9hrMG6oBRYm
public
contract
1,717,532,158,214
if-a-full-war-between-lebanon-and-i
Shump
https://firebasestorage.…b42-86292dabc67f
If a full war between Lebanon and Israel happens, will it be an Israeli invasion?
null
0.80996
1,825.031466
YES
null
55sawlzbu1r
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A questioner and Starmer mentioned the NHS - resolved YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,532,176,721
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
zdfsg5goj7l
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A questioner and Starmer mentioned the NHS - resolved YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,532,201,158
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
eeu2bzssmf
false
vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bekseu6gbnp", "label": "Shump", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Marnix
En7HiaUVW9hrMG6oBRYm
public
contract
1,717,532,216,205
if-a-full-war-between-lebanon-and-i
Marnix
https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d
If a full war between Lebanon and Israel happens, will it be an Israeli invasion?
bekseu6gbnp
0.80996
0
YES
null
35stm926c6x
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Shump can you please do something with this? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null,...
stefanie
CpAECER4xrNpyO327ABy
public
contract
1,717,532,220,899
which-of-the-following-is-a-dumplin
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which of the following is a dumpling [resolves to poll]?
m7u66xojfi
null
12.82919
YES
c8d705502289
wlwxdiib4s
false
SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "35stm926c6x", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Shump
CpAECER4xrNpyO327ABy
public
contract
1,717,532,271,110
which-of-the-following-is-a-dumplin
Shump
https://firebasestorage.…b42-86292dabc67f
Which of the following is a dumpling [resolves to poll]?
m7u66xojfi
null
45.090853
YES
07c4eab4b5d7
ig7xwj0ivzg
false
66n8egNtSibMZgojYSvaUyqE44C3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sw799tzlhnk", "label": "KevinBurke", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Sunil O
lfKTdLn3ROZE6Ab5Zn8N
public
contract
1,717,532,318,441
will-shohei-ohtani-be-convicted-of
SunilOcara
https://storage.googleap…YSvaUyqE44C3.png
Will Shohei Ohtani be convicted of or plead guilty to a crime related to the gambling scandal?
sw799tzlhnk
null
null
null
null
h1a1i3bnmpp
false
v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I bet they'd taste best if I ate them in one big handful. Option missing.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Krantz
oQK9yhPb8xl41hYYzyzP
public
contract
1,717,532,380,869
which-chocolate-will-be-the-crowd-f
Krantz
https://firebasestorage.…804-fed8dc551e61
Which chocolate will be the crowd favorite at my Chocolate 101 session today?
null
null
65.559545
NO
c0tv5jzw7s
d7mmh6azyve
false
XVSud6CnM3RwmREartV6iimAvRP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bekseu6gbnp", "label": "Shump", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
astroblob
En7HiaUVW9hrMG6oBRYm
public
contract
1,717,532,566,610
if-a-full-war-between-lebanon-and-i
astroblob
https://firebasestorage.…fc2-333249fb40f5
If a full war between Lebanon and Israel happens, will it be an Israeli invasion?
bekseu6gbnp
0.80996
19.383714
NO
null
qgzibhrq0s
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ns0slfnj2n", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Universal FC ⚽
XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF
public
contract
1,717,532,605,352
which-country-will-win-euro-2024
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
Which country will win Euro 2024?
dptibf3qghq
null
502.549471
YES
e6f33a256b53
zhwmz8kqh5e
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qpxkt1n2t5n", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Genzy
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,532,648,264
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
cumnk15ger
null
440.62767
YES
9c58d8c1d0d9
gi8nszvj2lq
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How fun do you find daily stock markets?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
PH3kaWjaMoWkF5NFj2RZ
public
contract
1,717,532,695,465
will-play-tier-markets-make-manifol
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Play Tier markets make Manifold more fun?
null
null
null
null
null
c938oec7beo
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Universal FC ⚽
EM7Q8LDpFzQo42yFLrRf
public
contract
1,717,532,716,047
ballon-dor-winner-2024
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
Ballon dOr Winner 2024
null
null
95.519399
YES
34f9a5134cdc
luqhehdupz
false
AgrPlc2VNxZsP0lT3LCk4E7tFza2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bekseu6gbnp", "label": "Shump", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Daniel Fox
En7HiaUVW9hrMG6oBRYm
public
contract
1,717,532,945,156
if-a-full-war-between-lebanon-and-i
DanielFox9fff
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKr20X2_KWfUnifH6Fc3rwkAAF0ne271BX4y6NinXmR=s96-c
If a full war between Lebanon and Israel happens, will it be an Israeli invasion?
bekseu6gbnp
0.80996
128.200273
YES
null
n9dxc2wc7x7
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can someone explain play to me like I'm a moron(I am)?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "do...
Haws
RuKLhFEq2k2sDdw1rXkt
public
contract
1,717,533,039,377
will-manifold-remove-the-play-marke
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Manifold remove the "Play" market tier by the end of June?
null
null
null
null
null
qfifq0a0zbh
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nuhnbzt2t2", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Kongo Landwalker
O4U48w4hTIn9epzQrNrZ
public
contract
1,717,533,158,884
if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?
nuhnbzt2t2
null
null
null
null
fdol69n6snb
false
WDN6Sby1RAZhMpoyfuJEU6TU8rn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just egg is a great egg replacement, even in baking", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
21eleven
PqUHmGF921vb1Dpmo3fz
public
contract
1,717,533,170,358
manifold-makes-a-cake-ingredients-p
21eleven
https://firebasestorage.…22e-970221fbbdaf
Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below.
null
null
null
null
null
t9l03t08kmb
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What about robotaxis that have no steering wheel?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
9zMV4dRZqiZV0BRoaLj0
public
contract
1,717,533,416,949
self-driving-only-vehicles-availabl
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
Self driving only vehicles available in California before 2044
null
0.815308
60.28871
YES
null
b3woo2ej9ps
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sunak mentioned \"the flights\" which I am taking to be a reference to the Rwanda plan - resolved YES.", "type": "text" } ], ...
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,533,460,000
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
gnnc82v0b8v
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zhwmz8kqh5e", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,533,543,717
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
cumnk15ger
null
2,342.142804
NO
9dbcde390667
rkwvo5fmxx
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yikes fam.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text...
Haws
N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40
public
contract
1,717,533,587,796
will-the-close-price-of-alphabet-in-0qppbwxmco
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will the close price of Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) be higher than the previous day? [Closes early]
null
null
102.455063
YES
x4coldsomm
xdlzyg1xgf
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I plan to attend both, so I can try to provide an attendee estimate for resolution (but happy to rely on others estimates if needed). ", "typ...
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,533,617,424
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
2,342.142804
NO
9dbcde390667
jiqredsojdk
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cvzscbtnnys", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Kongo Landwalker
slYkBKCtJonn3LjOVSVr
public
contract
1,717,533,697,002
the-solution-to-fermi-paradoxs-grea
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish
8x4326vttfv
null
null
null
null
e00ibrm5hd
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I am inclined to resolve this to NO. Sunak did incidate that he would always choose \"security over a foreign court\" but he also indicated that it was...
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,533,839,596
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
5wschlteyou
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Did Starmer just say that he doesn't think ANYBODY should be crossing the channel? Seems an extreme position. How will I get to the Olympics??", ...
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,533,929,487
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
bx1o1mkyj3d
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Did Starmer just say that he doesn't think ANYBODY should be crossing the channel? Seems an extreme position. How will I get to the Olympics?? Didn't t...
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,533,944,122
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
null
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
5cp0rb2q6qb
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e00ibrm5hd", "label": "MikeH", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Noit
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,533,952,555
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
e00ibrm5hd
null
187.933008
NO
52c0823e1b54
aq3cud3f4m
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bx1o1mkyj3d", "label": "MikeH", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Noit
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,533,980,064
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
bx1o1mkyj3d
null
187.933008
NO
52c0823e1b54
x15eyevwl
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yht97izsxrd", "label": "Krantz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Snarflak
O4U48w4hTIn9epzQrNrZ
public
contract
1,717,534,038,255
if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?
fe1ccfb8bwi
null
null
null
null
osqp452ncll
false
WCJvVzWbG1apZxBa83xpTYwEBdh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zVpcq4hQuKYgU1DP66YEJwB4gY22", "label": "Abhijeet", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
KungurRail
nDvvM2NqhiHswFYTmwS7
public
contract
1,717,534,199,569
will-narendra-modi-be-the-pm-of-ind
KungurRail
https://firebasestorage.…abd-cc46e19584d5
Will Narendra Modi be the PM of India in 2024?
null
0.959425
1,250.547006
NO
null
zg12qsuv2xb
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gi8nszvj2lq", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
nikki
PH3kaWjaMoWkF5NFj2RZ
public
contract
1,717,534,393,046
will-play-tier-markets-make-manifol
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will Play Tier markets make Manifold more fun?
gi8nszvj2lq
null
null
null
null
snrlqwnhg1d
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xdlzyg1xgf", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,534,476,259
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
xdlzyg1xgf
null
147.121674
YES
0v2h7upen3
vaknqv79f7o
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hm this is not going to work, must be 1 submission per answer", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
Ian Philips
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,534,549,629
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
3,008.515283
NO
u1jf6yhfn5
3g2sub06jz6
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vaknqv79f7o", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Ian Philips
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,534,591,851
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
vaknqv79f7o
null
3,008.515283
NO
u1jf6yhfn5
hi9bt8z3frg
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5cp0rb2q6qb", "label": "Noit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,534,792,370
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
e00ibrm5hd
null
808.56412
NO
67492dc8f4b9
eexkhpyco18
false
xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n9dxc2wc7x7", "label": "Haws", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Scipio Fabius
RuKLhFEq2k2sDdw1rXkt
public
contract
1,717,534,805,816
will-manifold-remove-the-play-marke
ScipioFabius
https://firebasestorage.…63c-5ef26e7166e2
Will Manifold remove the "Play" market tier by the end of June?
n9dxc2wc7x7
0.129447
628.756294
NO
null
ytsojie6b8n
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qgzibhrq0s", "label": "UniversalFC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Gaz Downright
XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF
public
contract
1,717,534,863,847
which-country-will-win-euro-2024
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Which country will win Euro 2024?
dptibf3qghq
null
482.096647
YES
6099ca6cbcc8
bvvxnv9kxxm
false
yjrqu7KK6cajU398dQxMufYKqJ22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What desides if it AGI? And the genral query skills of current models are not great. And there is huge problem with the consept, how can it be AGI when...
milcaunicorn
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,534,981,424
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
milcaunicorn
https://firebasestorage.…3d0-aa91cdcfde1a
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
null
null
49.60318
YES
9b885d17779f
zw6e8x8xbw
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "osqp452ncll", "label": "KungurRail", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
SirCryptomind
nDvvM2NqhiHswFYTmwS7
public
contract
1,717,535,019,574
will-narendra-modi-be-the-pm-of-ind
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Will Narendra Modi be the PM of India in 2024?
osqp452ncll
null
null
null
null
bqbt1amxb5u
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hi9bt8z3frg", "label": "MikeH", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Noit
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,535,076,981
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
e00ibrm5hd
null
187.933008
NO
52c0823e1b54
d7aygr3tf7b
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Additionally if anyone thought the % was too high, there was plenty of time to predict it down with Mana based on the timestamps of the conversation be...
SirCryptomind
nDvvM2NqhiHswFYTmwS7
public
contract
1,717,535,119,470
will-narendra-modi-be-the-pm-of-ind
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Will Narendra Modi be the PM of India in 2024?
osqp452ncll
null
null
null
null
lzliddx0a4l
false
sICXNtXt2dZ14BnDqkmbVisozZu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have no clue how this will wind up resolving but I can say one thing for sure…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
Jony
fJ5Vx28NTUMMvnKuNMvQ
public
contract
1,717,535,269,583
uk-general-election-2024-who-will-w
Jony
https://firebasestorage.…32f-ac199fffc968
UK General Election 2024 - Who will win the first debate?
null
null
null
null
null
wsmkfb85jy
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The license was issued on June 4th:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "co...
Chris Billington
rlbGb5Qbv1C46COJUk8m
public
contract
1,717,535,306,759
how-long-after-starship-ift3-will-t
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
How long after Starship IFT-3 will the FAA grant a launch license for IFT-4
null
null
473.618811
NO
b08379dc053f
sets2k9xz6i
false
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This could be handy for making some audiobook:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { ...
Franklin Baldo
28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f
public
contract
1,717,535,370,967
will-human-narration-for-audiobooks
FranklinBaldo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026?
null
0.53485
37.880703
YES
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