id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
vd4wxwbfdjo | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,717,625,333,353 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ixf38ub8cg | false | 8ntNjtw3m7gJKwpf2nDGEvnpU6y1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fergphrx978",
"label": "RanaG",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Schneefackel | iHacIyW2j51IA3B7iLTx | public | contract | 1,717,625,344,358 | how-many-friends-will-ranag-make-fr | Schneefackel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaIkLPQddNdum_OH2iW5S1nKX7q6NQ8X1v6csyu=s96-c | How many friends will @RanaG make from attending LessOnline/SC/Manifest? | fergphrx978 | null | 89.198295 | YES | 0hvw7zwvy5 |
5c9tml7n1g | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,717,625,374,521 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
9kbl7m8wlrt | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(resolved based on my assumptions, as Tracy was YES for their option so I have to imagine that was their intent. LMK if any disputes)",
"type... | Ziddletwix | 5UzdJIyhO0QyrfJrsQGM | public | contract | 1,717,625,704,815 | what-will-be-true-of-david-lynchs-m | Ziddletwix | What will be true of David Lynch's mysterious June 5th announcement? [ADD RESPONSES] | iqr5rinj7t | null | 862.365262 | NO | eef5ee4d691e | |
i32l89177w | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | WxVXkd0gA2fiTdcrrVE8 | public | contract | 1,717,625,780,626 | will-embid-get-a-flagrant-foul-in-g | Ziddletwix | Will Embid get a flagrant foul in game 5? | kn91sfck8bk | 0.99 | 362.05523 | YES | null | |
7lxzrt8vkit | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ioms87hcf2i",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ziddletwix | CUJaUVajBKOIMmvXKF5D | public | contract | 1,717,625,823,936 | which-things-will-be-trendy-this-su | Ziddletwix | Which things will be trendy this summer? (A June 2024 GoogleTrends Adventure) | ioms87hcf2i | null | 105.648303 | YES | 23bd8fe41134 | |
be9r6l836km | false | MRZnhj1jEFNENPY2nChRq3e5LFu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "My similar market:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
... | Kable | Hla95qzDZL1CaTiKL6sn | public | contract | 1,717,626,032,292 | will-the-alleged-alien-mummies-from | Kable | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUNZh_pe0-UKdZWFAsJQVXidKnPhRBZp82MZ9Q6DDHI6Q=s96-c | Will the alleged alien mummies from Peru be debunked by 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
atsvmhvu0zt | false | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2",
"label": "komplexkonjugat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "me... | Matt C. Wilson | FXtpcxBD8icaPblGqiZP | public | contract | 1,717,626,057,765 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-93 | MattCWilson | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 93) | null | null | 317.247834 | YES | bd31833k33 | |
lss60fyn95e | false | MRZnhj1jEFNENPY2nChRq3e5LFu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Similar market:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"con... | Kable | kGXGoQvqzdIIr1pgSlb1 | public | contract | 1,717,626,087,645 | will-jamie-maussans-nonhuman-beings | Kable | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUNZh_pe0-UKdZWFAsJQVXidKnPhRBZp82MZ9Q6DDHI6Q=s96-c | Will Jaime Maussan's 'nonhuman beings' (2023) still be considered an 'elaborate hoax' by Wikipedia in 2030? | null | 0.853205 | 2,916.418662 | YES | null |
227up7imaib | false | qnREWtzsdkOkzrR2k0jEe0EDp5j1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "89PHKCr0tHNvTFhGCfzzRELmUnJ2",
"label": "sophiawisdom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Chris 🥌 | MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L | public | contract | 1,717,626,259,883 | how-much-will-gpt45-inference-cost | chris | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcjsedwards%2F0rr7gruUWz.19?alt=media&token=8dfba163-ccec-436f-8af3-57f4cf25db11 | How much will gpt-4.5 inference cost per million tokens? | null | null | 9,531.565492 | YES | 3isest3u8s |
xufv1cpy0x8 | false | PJ6ywFzkSDMvKoNuqjUS2ljyxVZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I am surprised at both the confidence and direction. Especially compared to this related market. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"... | GCS | xwZ9yKJuPAzIrCRWrSVj | public | contract | 1,717,626,264,808 | will-any-foreign-military-trainers | GCS | Will any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks? | null | null | null | null | null | |
gyf5fjgp66m | false | Cc1rw0NVHVS56Ew3MpW6g2L30pO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "e1fe3w6u5ih",
"label": "jacksonpolack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Werner Zagrebbi | fFdISdQbtgzeXzvjPpfh | public | contract | 1,717,626,975,115 | will-a-large-government-organizatio | Khazar_Man_From_Turan | Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030? | qp6a4rbz4d | 0.205266 | 3,107.65863 | YES | null | |
0sa7011ydcm | false | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "atsvmhvu0zt",
"label": "MattCWilson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | komplexkonjugat | FXtpcxBD8icaPblGqiZP | public | contract | 1,717,627,062,542 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-93 | komplexkonjugat | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 93) | atsvmhvu0zt | null | null | null | null | |
07kc0gzjvnov | false | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Next turn:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text... | komplexkonjugat | FXtpcxBD8icaPblGqiZP | public | contract | 1,717,627,124,551 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-93 | komplexkonjugat | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 93) | null | null | null | null | null | |
wmf42l3pz4h | false | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0sa7011ydcm",
"label": "komplexkonjugat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Matt C. Wilson | FXtpcxBD8icaPblGqiZP | public | contract | 1,717,627,519,186 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-93 | MattCWilson | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 93) | atsvmhvu0zt | null | 317.247834 | YES | bd31833k33 | |
ysavw0hyamb | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vf6w93en3q",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Savior of Plant | THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv | public | contract | 1,717,627,535,278 | in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? | vf6w93en3q | null | null | null | null |
npdw32jyulm | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i am here but rana ran away from me",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | iHacIyW2j51IA3B7iLTx | public | contract | 1,717,627,648,981 | how-many-friends-will-ranag-make-fr | jim | How many friends will @RanaG make from attending LessOnline/SC/Manifest? | null | null | 2,449.897418 | YES | 3m1nwkwo5k | |
97gmxf62vzl | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1izlvwtar0g",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa | public | contract | 1,717,627,715,287 | which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-bqmuxd42c5 | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2024 according to Manifold? | 1izlvwtar0g | null | null | null | null |
t6kawvmyik | false | uWsV13JR70gTlwH0aYxb5znhNcA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "s9wcltf6aio",
"label": "SteveSokolowski",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Dan Bron | NhLe8jLoqMzANFUXNTlz | public | contract | 1,717,627,765,743 | what-sentence-will-merchan-initiall | DanBron | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKy5viBlwPROilsN6y5dm8JzZBIVvDnUQVn6ewptXXP-s_0rrU=s96-c | What sentence will Merchan initially give Trump for his convictions in the Stormy case? | s9wcltf6aio | null | 89.041388 | YES | cfubcpplf2 |
duoq8x4p1yj | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322",
"label": "esusatyo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Daniel Tello | fvW85lshcVJhziWAUEeT | public | contract | 1,717,627,943,960 | will-the-market-cap-of-nvda-surpass | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will the market cap of NVDA surpass AAPL before September 2024? | null | 0.858033 | 1,500.236577 | YES | null |
u1islluoc | false | 8ntNjtw3m7gJKwpf2nDGEvnpU6y1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's looking bad for my favorite Manifold couple… 💔\n\n",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": ... | Schneefackel | qpcTdtVruV3CGHfat2TL | public | contract | 1,717,627,961,250 | will-ranag-find-a-reason-that-jim-c | Schneefackel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaIkLPQddNdum_OH2iW5S1nKX7q6NQ8X1v6csyu=s96-c | will @RanaG find a reason that @jim can't be friend? | null | 0.212849 | 391.921677 | YES | null |
llxse6qwjm | false | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "June 5: EZ ise wearing black today",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | dusty | xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT | public | contract | 1,717,628,130,407 | during-the-days-in-june-when-i-see | stardust2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | During the days in June when I see EZ, which color of suit jacket will EZ wear the most frequently? | null | null | 5.607649 | YES | oxicc5pbxx |
759pw167f3i | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gyf5fjgp66m",
"label": "Khazar_Man_From_Turan",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | jackson polack | fFdISdQbtgzeXzvjPpfh | public | contract | 1,717,628,599,462 | will-a-large-government-organizatio | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030? | qp6a4rbz4d | null | null | null | null |
dhheph7fyd | false | 5ZLMEpuF15YyU9c1RTz7MorzAl22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "i32l89177w",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Travis | WxVXkd0gA2fiTdcrrVE8 | public | contract | 1,717,628,695,568 | will-embid-get-a-flagrant-foul-in-g | travis | Will Embid get a flagrant foul in game 5? | kn91sfck8bk | 0.99 | 940.537438 | YES | null | |
5tc5cvyysxb | false | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Our bots gave one of the strongest buys we've ever seen earlier today, the 4th best company to buy in the S&P now.",
"type": "text"
}... | Steve Sokolowski | glg8vtPHFQYFPxZDAENl | public | contract | 1,717,628,777,459 | will-nvida-become-the-largest-compa | SteveSokolowski | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | Will NVIDIA become the largest company in the world (by market cap) before the end of 2030? | null | 0.597457 | 360.793764 | YES | null |
cxwmbtgdd2 | false | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ysavw0hyamb",
"label": "SaviorofPlant",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Chris Billington | THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv | public | contract | 1,717,628,941,085 | in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta | chrisjbillington | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? | vf6w93en3q | 0.579849 | 9,343.201057 | NO | null | |
kdr3fvdzhed | false | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This just happened ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | keltan | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,628,974,290 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | keltan | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | null | null | 2,699.694398 | YES | 4948e4ce60d5 | |
eplf9dmupg6 | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zsheh17uyr",
"label": "GazDownright",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Genzy | kzJN0cS63EIddWBzVwED | public | contract | 1,717,629,154,064 | who-will-win-euro-2024 | Gen | Who will win Euro 2024? | zsheh17uyr | null | 2,086.316533 | YES | 9b5fb92a597c | |
eh2aiz0zcxp | false | NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mtnmizwnurd",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | dionisos | poXj2r4HOqAmeM35MJKH | public | contract | 1,717,629,242,123 | will-openphil-think-it-is-better-to | dionisos | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaBN5h-fDSn1z_PVqv7Ig7DoyQe7_sl0KXlw4bokw=s96-c | Will OpenPhil think it's better to spend mana creating EA prediction markets at $1 rather than donate it to EA LTFF? | mtnmizwnurd | 0.524991 | 188.704088 | YES | null |
u9j23zonvs | false | T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I counted 10",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tony Gao | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,629,388,350 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | TonyGao | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | null | null | 630.847302 | YES | 360fc361a4a4 |
kd5qk2jrij | false | cSXwuheTh4ZSog0zGNP4iAwE55p2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Looks like this should resolve NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | zQ4Z82W | mtQW6qar8l9idor91chv | public | contract | 1,717,629,483,666 | will-new-york-city-implement-conges | zQ4Z82W | Will New York City implement congestion pricing by May 30, 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
jnlqhimofpq | false | 6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The runner of trivia is a no holder fyi",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joe and Seth | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,629,536,682 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | JoeandSeth | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | null | null | 222.127111 | NO | 58efgk1q6o | |
p08cruo0my | false | Cc1rw0NVHVS56Ew3MpW6g2L30pO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "759pw167f3i",
"label": "jacksonpolack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Werner Zagrebbi | fFdISdQbtgzeXzvjPpfh | public | contract | 1,717,629,585,465 | will-a-large-government-organizatio | Khazar_Man_From_Turan | Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030? | qp6a4rbz4d | 0.205266 | 3,107.65863 | YES | null | |
y0ikwft1w7o | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "p08cruo0my",
"label": "Khazar_Man_From_Turan",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | jackson polack | fFdISdQbtgzeXzvjPpfh | public | contract | 1,717,629,655,689 | will-a-large-government-organizatio | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030? | qp6a4rbz4d | null | null | null | null |
p315isap2d | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | The Official | Il4oBsB16jLFueuuy7ew | public | contract | 1,717,630,077,973 | will-elizabeth-holmes-serve-at-leas | 10thOfficial | Will Elizabeth Holmes serve at least 1 year of her prison sentence? | w6f6eklc77 | 0.917782 | 1,688.216119 | YES | null | |
z6wm620yg9 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "fair assessment. I am naturally lean, and am not putting a significant effort at it, and have stayed around this weight for like 5 years",
"t... | Bayesian | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,630,247,863 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | Bayesian | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | g4lz1p9bv3h | null | null | null | null | |
p2r6075rgjq | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But then again… love finds a way.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,630,264,386 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | Bayesian | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | g4lz1p9bv3h | null | null | null | null | |
a3hep01hfc8 | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Can you clarify that this would be public streets, not a couple of intersections on, e.g., a company’s industrial access road on private property?",
... | Jess Riedel | teZKG0VYEbIco16abv36 | public | contract | 1,717,630,272,563 | will-intersections-where-selfdrivin | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
g2ys661othw | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "juxjy4n45xg",
"label": "KeenenW",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | stefanie | rpINgNCUuLZiHkvZkGjZ | public | contract | 1,717,630,765,811 | major-league-baseball-mlb-regular-s | shankypanky | Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches | juxjy4n45xg | null | null | null | null | |
njrs23w8hr | false | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Matt C. Wilson | xqpAyQZiErgJ1cu2SANl | public | contract | 1,717,630,946,957 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-94 | MattCWilson | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 94) | null | null | 31.724783 | YES | 7ijkg2h71f | |
zv2itjihe9f | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qh7ljtunut",
"label": "KevinN",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Panfilo | s4TFyM47lJB2E9Fr9rQ4 | public | contract | 1,717,630,953,562 | will-lionel-messi-make-an-appearanc | Panfilo | Will Lionel Messi make an appearance at any Apple event in the next 12 months? | qh7ljtunut | null | null | null | null | |
3a2tlc9vp6w | false | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2",
"label": "komplexkonjugat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "me... | Matt C. Wilson | xqpAyQZiErgJ1cu2SANl | public | contract | 1,717,631,046,668 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-94 | MattCWilson | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 94) | null | null | 31.724783 | YES | 7ijkg2h71f | |
osdm71u6iqa | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1vqqrkwe7dy",
"label": "ovals",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | SirCryptomind | UyVGCNId6YK7XAvJSFd3 | public | contract | 1,717,631,290,626 | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-nov-seo1q4quoh | SirCryptomind | To which is the last round that Novak Djokovic will advance in the 2024 Wimbledon tournament? 🎾 | q2gkndnbsna | null | null | null | null | |
wire8dyp9mc | false | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Jim | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,717,631,312,719 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | JimAusman | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | 0.5 | 5,500.96224 | NO | null | |
dtd3rk54hae | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I've checked in and this doesn't resolve yet - I hear there was cheating but no one was reprimanded with lost points or disqualification",
"t... | stefanie | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,631,635,099 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | shankypanky | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | null | null | 1,025.222535 | YES | 8bca377e66b7 | |
ae6k2kfzsvi | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Neither [6+ verified rockets per day for 14 days in a row] nor [IDF land incursion on a larger scale than special forces] have happened, and there are ... | Panfilo | ZslgmdOyz0d0YqjTem3i | public | contract | 1,717,631,806,918 | will-israel-and-hizballa-significan | Panfilo | Will israel and hizballa significantly increase their conflict during the first half of 2024 | null | 0.57 | 1,097.902682 | NO | null | |
16s3dgzy7g2 | false | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "g2ys661othw",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Keenen W | rpINgNCUuLZiHkvZkGjZ | public | contract | 1,717,632,093,417 | major-league-baseball-mlb-regular-s | KeenenW | Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches | juxjy4n45xg | null | 3,040.955545 | YES | 162e3349d21b | |
i52row3btl | false | 4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Application error: a client-side exception has occurred (see the browser ... | Gustavo Mafra | kzJN0cS63EIddWBzVwED | public | contract | 1,717,632,515,839 | who-will-win-euro-2024 | GustavoMafra | Who will win Euro 2024? | zsheh17uyr | null | 45.964518 | YES | 8d2cd8541cbb | |
nhdygz5yoq | false | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "osdm71u6iqa",
"label": "SirCryptomind",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Stuart Slagle | UyVGCNId6YK7XAvJSFd3 | public | contract | 1,717,632,651,675 | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-nov-seo1q4quoh | ovals | To which is the last round that Novak Djokovic will advance in the 2024 Wimbledon tournament? 🎾 | q2gkndnbsna | null | null | null | null | |
3pbl24cucjo | false | e25NgP91ONZwgj1cCcYRU4g3mZw1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8kl7kkhfb409RyTE8Hrv",
"label": "adele",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Andrew McKnight | NKDPES0vQFtES19IyFQm | public | contract | 1,717,633,032,855 | is-the-universe-fully-deterministic | AndrewMcKnight | Is the universe fully deterministic? | N9wrRxkSBcmunTKH0Xyp | null | null | null | null | |
7m3gko93czw | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1",
"label": "NoitUK",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | DMNBzVD0kHV7bw5PFR84 | public | contract | 1,717,633,083,309 | will-manifold-sponsor-a-dougdoug-st | Ziddletwix | Will Manifold sponsor a DougDoug stream in the next six months? | null | 0.014102 | 934.043338 | NO | null | |
7t28fzzda0q | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83",
"label": "JoshuaWilkes",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | JRP | bxExTS5maUMTPqP61gKZ | public | contract | 1,717,633,280,535 | will-boeings-starliner-carry-crew-t-1547f5cce041 | parhizj | Will Boeing's Starliner carry crew to orbit by the end of 2024? | null | 0.99 | 8,646.713997 | YES | null | |
dz5l87k28uf | false | iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "227up7imaib",
"label": "chris",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Dominic de Bettencourt | MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L | public | contract | 1,717,633,413,963 | how-much-will-gpt45-inference-cost | dominic | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c | How much will gpt-4.5 inference cost per million tokens? | 227up7imaib | null | 3,348.898684 | YES | ka2wctmlkg |
lso66olt5oa | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cxwmbtgdd2",
"label": "chrisjbillington",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Christopher Randles | THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv | public | contract | 1,717,633,476,537 | in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? | vf6w93en3q | 0.578995 | 10.344796 | YES | null |
r2l6xefxbo | false | bLt6k1O80HbqWMzqrsWtsktGLGx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Where do you work? Can you wfh fulltime?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Susanne inFrance | fJAiEvdVMr398612SYnu | public | contract | 1,717,633,478,316 | where-will-i-live-in-september-2024 | SusanneinFrance | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDOs86WcHU8dwcDIj414T7jk_b0RgedXuz4g-gxhsW=s96-c | Where will I live in September 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
ti72mt0zzja | false | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'll take that 2% chance that it blows up on the launchpad / something else stops June. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "p... | Timothy Bandors | TsoaRdlCfVjSU4qtvegS | public | contract | 1,717,634,344,957 | will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 | TimothyBandors | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | Will Starship launch in June 2024 | null | 0.975581 | 1,552.917227 | NO | null |
a4ymkci4vd8 | false | bLt6k1O80HbqWMzqrsWtsktGLGx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "when I take the time to research a topic before placing a bet — then contribute to comment /discussions, yes, well-spent ",
"type": "text"
... | Susanne inFrance | jobCk7X2sAKVZLoYZrYl | public | contract | 1,717,634,478,115 | do-you-think-your-time-is-wellspent | SusanneinFrance | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDOs86WcHU8dwcDIj414T7jk_b0RgedXuz4g-gxhsW=s96-c | Do you think your time is well-spent on Manifold? | null | null | null | null | null |
cppdpxrk129 | false | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6b7gswets4v",
"label": "MarkHamill",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Mark Hamill | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,634,877,178 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | MarkHamill | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | 6b7gswets4v | null | 11,725.029189 | NO | fgktizg4gd | |
3gex8xrz63j | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Haven't seen an update from Bloomberg so going by IEA BEV only now with a much simpler analysis: subtracting 2023-2023 using BEV car stock graph only:"... | JRP | 3WkSuFEFNDpYGkAzhVkc | public | contract | 1,717,634,969,641 | what-will-be-the-total-number-of-el | parhizj | What will be the total number of electric vehicles sold globally in 2025? | null | 0.858464 | 379.6023 | YES | null | |
fj7r97ls64 | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Also see",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractId... | ClubmasterTransparent | bQn2JXbExhMlbMpw3mKU | public | contract | 1,717,635,080,754 | will-there-be-a-major-deepfake-scan | ClubmasterTransparent | Will there be a major deepfake scandal in the 2024 US presidential campaign? | null | 0.4 | 119.961612 | YES | null | |
j7z2f8ecq1 | false | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Which team wins the best 2 out of 3 series?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Stuart Slagle | qLRQ0pAvh4K4XSGp0jmw | public | contract | 1,717,635,375,225 | which-team-wins-the-2024-softball-c | ovals | Which team wins the 2024 Softball College World Series | null | null | null | null | null | |
hcy20mlx714 | false | qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "welp i just sent ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kDJ5DUrMFUfJsgmHxUW07kt4rtb2",
"l... | Qoiuoiuoiu | 2qTKEI8Fmm57AW5xIhxK | public | contract | 1,717,635,435,164 | will-i-receive-a-managram-of-exactl | Qoiuoiuoiu | Will I receive a managram of exactly 1434 mana by EOY 2024? | null | 0.024655 | 3,525.801908 | YES | null | |
2t8d2emtlad | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yup, ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2",
"label": "stru... | Dan | TgtkzFG6Ef2523oO2oDD | public | contract | 1,717,635,644,048 | will-the-highest-price-for-nvidia-s-2d3f412d591c | DanMan314 | Will the highest price for Nvidia stock for the year be in May 2024? | on63wyxrg8c | 0.042752 | 13,226.824109 | NO | null | |
78vir13kncb | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Updating from 2024 mean using ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [... | JRP | QmB5lddNV6y584os08s2 | public | contract | 1,717,635,750,800 | will-atmospheric-co-concentration-e-0eba12877c7f | parhizj | Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 425 ppm in 2025? | nOn8ZruYVKYLKfUx9wsM | 0.750408 | 1,716.001036 | NO | null | |
byw99s1lciu | false | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Kid has had a runny nose for a while but not preventing him from going to daycare. However, I’ve come down to with something similar, bad enough to tak... | David Glidden | tzw89Y25bB9gNETZvUBk | public | contract | 1,717,635,895,038 | when-will-my-son-bring-home-his-2nd | dglid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | When will my son bring home his 2nd sickness from daycare? | null | null | null | null | null |
smkancz0tm9 | false | G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Jesus: An anti imperialist whose greatest accomplishment was dying, his name was later used in support of every western imperialist program including t... | Jessica Evans | nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh | public | contract | 1,717,635,951,121 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p | JessicaEvans | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four) | null | null | 1.230467 | YES | 58f1389a1390 |
yzhklja8i7q | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ba78we2dpxu",
"label": "Haws",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | chris (strutheo) | uSkAOnWASY4KdqL5pQ4S | public | contract | 1,717,636,033,001 | how-many-individual-drugs-will-i-co-of6krlu8ah | strutheo | How many types of drugs will I consume at Manifest? | ba78we2dpxu | null | 2,465.327729 | NO | xwq2oq0vlk | |
qrv9z4rcgxe | false | T2aOrjx1sJMVQeHFWdKaQeTrNYe2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "as4mg3ev43i",
"label": "JuliusSimonelli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Crissman Loomis | y7bJWlqgq6bTmYzH5nQT | public | contract | 1,717,636,176,162 | longevity-expert-death-pool-which-l | CrissmanLoomis | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7tbB1GiaIFOka7xVzWIrnZSBrVVEnXmnVxBymXF64=s96-c | Longevity Expert Death Pool: which longevity expert will die the youngest? | as4mg3ev43i | null | 106.615091 | NO | 97a5cf33a1d7 |
tzeckdljn2c | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "as much as i like jesus, one must sometimes abandon one’s principles and agree to blame all european wars on jesus",
"type": "text"
}... | Bayesian | nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh | public | contract | 1,717,636,217,802 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p | Bayesian | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four) | smkancz0tm9 | null | 2.06313 | YES | 58f1389a1390 | |
mz7kcaa87s | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0misno7x4do",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ben Shindel | 2PWP6xnd0LzxFuPi9z5u | public | contract | 1,717,636,446,376 | for-the-next-person-who-organizes-a | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | For the next person who organizes a fun Manifold tournament, M3000. | 0misno7x4do | null | null | null | null |
f1aac30emnc | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mz7kcaa87s",
"label": "benshindel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ben Shindel | 2PWP6xnd0LzxFuPi9z5u | public | contract | 1,717,636,477,334 | for-the-next-person-who-organizes-a | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | For the next person who organizes a fun Manifold tournament, M3000. | 0misno7x4do | null | null | null | null |
lxobhgkeiye | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "From the article:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
... | Savior of Plant | 62cWs0IOTjXhxxAgyWY5 | public | contract | 1,717,636,565,443 | will-there-be-more-than-10-laborato | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024? | null | 0.519512 | 191.601351 | NO | null |
owrt7pb5lre | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f1aac30emnc",
"label": "benshindel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | chris (strutheo) | 2PWP6xnd0LzxFuPi9z5u | public | contract | 1,717,637,165,375 | for-the-next-person-who-organizes-a | strutheo | For the next person who organizes a fun Manifold tournament, M3000. | 0misno7x4do | null | null | null | null | |
ysfjdkyp9f | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d0BkGDeC5KxglC73f8RV",
"label": "/strutheo/will-bitcoin-btc-reach-77777-by-77",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
... | chris (strutheo) | PhL157P3YYVDEOmIjAQb | public | contract | 1,717,637,248,644 | will-bitcoin-still-be-above-66666-a | strutheo | Will bitcoin still be above $66666 at the end of 6/6? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ljtmidkazs | false | wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "byw99s1lciu",
"label": "dglid",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Chris V | tzw89Y25bB9gNETZvUBk | public | contract | 1,717,637,279,912 | when-will-my-son-bring-home-his-2nd | voodoo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c | When will my son bring home his 2nd sickness from daycare? | byw99s1lciu | null | 773.603786 | YES | 8062b5555d06 |
qtlqahixq99 | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Maybe",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | NKDPES0vQFtES19IyFQm | public | contract | 1,717,637,290,318 | is-the-universe-fully-deterministic | RemNi | Is the universe fully deterministic? | null | null | null | null | null | |
6n4kkox4wis | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cppdpxrk129",
"label": "MarkHamill",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | stefanie | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,637,317,752 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | shankypanky | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | 6b7gswets4v | null | 1,025.222535 | YES | 8bca377e66b7 | |
fz7v8hp8fqd | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Too much reading to do:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
... | JRP | THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv | public | contract | 1,717,638,150,414 | in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta | parhizj | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? | null | 0.589867 | 586.298295 | NO | null | |
yv9ernxppo | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "About thirty done ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | CDuYbTQ0Q9ABXoE12xHP | public | contract | 1,717,638,171,474 | will-they-fold-1000-paper-cranes-at | strutheo | Will they fold 1000 paper cranes at Summer Camp and Manifest 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
rzh6hh9l4oo | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tzeckdljn2c",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | For Truth | nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh | public | contract | 1,717,638,243,126 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four) | smkancz0tm9 | null | 827.300692 | NO | 0b8ca19072a2 |
dgthdhiap67 | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hcy20mlx714",
"label": "Qoiuoiuoiu",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Savior of Plant | 2qTKEI8Fmm57AW5xIhxK | public | contract | 1,717,638,636,422 | will-i-receive-a-managram-of-exactl | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will I receive a managram of exactly 1434 mana by EOY 2024? | hcy20mlx714 | 0.937199 | 3,002.878143 | YES | null |
bty2jrjw36 | false | NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is a great question. I'm betting NO only because I think it'll be no more than 2. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "pa... | Stephen S Power | 69ft1ePbWBTtcZGINh3F | public | contract | 1,717,638,786,911 | will-3-or-more-idaho-libraries-will | StephenSPower | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c | Will 3 or more Idaho libraries transition to "Adults Only" in 2024? | null | 0.526665 | 20.270894 | NO | null |
ad6hw7fnd8v | false | xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It is incomprehensible to me how Newton is more GOATed than Darwin. Is Manifold inhabited entirely by glue sniffers?!",
"type": "text"
... | EugeneBixby | nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh | public | contract | 1,717,639,423,197 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p | EugeneBixby | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four) | null | null | 1,635.904791 | YES | 0b8ca19072a2 | |
s27kchdz8q | false | dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oEpXdWv0VgO5CIyBLQWaXx0Zsxr2",
"label": "ampdot",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | duck_master | WjmliBgkefuLkBvTNDX5 | public | contract | 1,717,639,710,501 | what-cities-in-the-us-will-tetra-vi | duck_master | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6 | What cities in the US will Tetra visit in 2024? | null | null | 67.530411 | YES | c1020704cb6e |
3n1e8b9nx2y | false | iTQO3gSfwWeu1D70TyOxP5x4r3f1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "“Kevin is still holding out hope that the final arbite... | Mick Bransfield | IYvv5HCwfAh42QNvf64I | public | contract | 1,717,640,049,331 | how-much-will-kevin-costners-horizo | MickBransfield | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7wtbRzM8LxtnW8APyehAwWYjCwYtgGP9I_hQ5S=s96-c | How much will Kevin Costner's 'Horizon Chapter 1' gross domestically on opening weekend? | null | null | null | null | null |
0831a6x6uo8r | false | pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "w3d6q9tuf6r",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | mario pasquato | EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p | public | contract | 1,717,640,161,654 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f | mariopasquato | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn | 7wsfec8ynrs | null | null | null | null |
0611wtmaddui | false | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lso66olt5oa",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Chris Billington | THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv | public | contract | 1,717,640,180,535 | in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta | chrisjbillington | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? | vf6w93en3q | 0.590051 | 9,343.201057 | NO | null | |
30toaxj6h2q | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "N/Aed. If you want to add it back and clarify the rules, feel free to",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
]... | Bayesian | WjmliBgkefuLkBvTNDX5 | public | contract | 1,717,640,396,067 | what-cities-in-the-us-will-tetra-vi | Bayesian | What cities in the US will Tetra visit in 2024? | s27kchdz8q | null | null | null | null | |
4df086bjz46 | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Holy fucking shit, the cover just got leaked!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
... | Plasma Ballin' | 1owhsOnpI4mwhLvVLI84 | public | contract | 1,717,641,749,081 | megamarket-what-will-be-true-of-jim | PlasmaBallin | [MEGAMARKET] What will be true of @jim's upcoming Rationalussy movie? | null | null | 123.820739 | NO | 4005a2765b92 | |
ssc4gqway3 | false | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Jim | RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl | public | contract | 1,717,642,108,807 | if-trump-wins-the-election-will-the | JimAusman | If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%(Current 3.5%) | null | 0.669137 | 562.197259 | NO | null | |
ga8q1dh81v6 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1mk3d9lki8q",
"label": "PlasmaBallin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Daniel | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,717,642,111,366 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 1mk3d9lki8q | null | 406.677081 | NO | 65af0d33c6f5 |
eyisetz0i4 | false | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Tariffs, deporting workers, lower interest rates and tax breaks all fuel inflation.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragr... | Jim | RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl | public | contract | 1,717,642,190,241 | if-trump-wins-the-election-will-the | JimAusman | If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%(Current 3.5%) | null | 0.669137 | 562.197259 | NO | null | |
rzet3tlb98 | false | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "One more day left and I still haven’t seen reports of juror identification. Kinda surprised this is still at 22% for such a short timeframe",
... | Joshua | mCfdHt1uLBUhz8nUhfrQ | public | contract | 1,717,642,224,791 | will-the-name-of-at-least-one-of-th | JoshuaB | Will the name of at least one of the Manhattan trial Trump jurors be known within one week of the verdict? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ayf7p5u0o95 | false | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "s85roebzzv",
"label": "chrisjbillington",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Jim | JLoGAVjBjmrSLdtm7iym | public | contract | 1,717,642,337,531 | if-biden-wins-the-election-will-inf | JimAusman | If Biden wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 3.5%) | s85roebzzv | null | null | null | null | |
xmjaqn9xmxs | false | xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ad6hw7fnd8v",
"label": "EugeneBixby",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | EugeneBixby | nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh | public | contract | 1,717,642,452,138 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p | EugeneBixby | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four) | ad6hw7fnd8v | null | 1,635.904791 | YES | 0b8ca19072a2 | |
g6lffioy07 | false | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0j67rg8fcnjt",
"label": "smithers",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Jim | 5VxIQger5o9WXEObpfZe | public | contract | 1,717,642,489,765 | open-market-will-i-find-gold-in-cal | JimAusman | [OPEN MARKET] Will I find Gold in California? (And other bets for my trip to CA). | 0j67rg8fcnjt | null | 21.938037 | NO | 581b48786011 | |
6297btcfw6i | false | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kylwg851sf",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | singer | slYkBKCtJonn3LjOVSVr | public | contract | 1,717,642,553,146 | the-solution-to-fermi-paradoxs-grea | singer | The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish | 8x4326vttfv | 0.146505 | 65.244356 | NO | null | |
im7x49qedb | false | IiBcUTs3V1bYSg0WbDlq4eKASv62 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah so this market is just broken. Should be changed to independent or cancelled",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragrap... | 0x413124 | J9vyDSiZTpx2spBhzuFW | public | contract | 1,717,642,722,486 | which-companies-will-have-a-market | 0x413124 | Which companies will have a market cap >= $1 Trillion at the end of 2025? | null | null | 1,242.550462 | YES | 86668f25560b | |
4v8d0n574uw | false | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "North Bernal is ideal. It is near The Mission but not ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": nu... | Jim | NrNXb5uOMqkl9qWFXRzF | public | contract | 1,717,642,814,843 | where-in-sf-will-i-move-to | JimAusman | Where in SF will I move to? | null | null | null | null | null | |
veddatgmvad | false | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I can easily see humans using an obedient ASI to do this to other humans. But I don't think that's what you're asking about.",
"type": "text"... | singer | 9JNRQ3fhGuyuoW1gN0xL | public | contract | 1,717,642,895,035 | if-asi-is-created-and-doesnt-wipe-o-bxa1loxmvl | singer | If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year? | null | 0.378623 | 7.951154 | NO | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.