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httb97cuu3n
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hopefully exactly one person.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jessica Evans
9JNRQ3fhGuyuoW1gN0xL
public
contract
1,717,643,258,027
if-asi-is-created-and-doesnt-wipe-o-bxa1loxmvl
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
null
0.378623
30.155783
YES
null
juo5bh5ncgi
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just to make sure I understand the question you are asking, it could be rephrased something like:", "type": "text" }, { ...
John David Pressman
Xy43mYhlRJOJCEfD74SN
public
contract
1,717,644,358,544
will-there-be-a-very-reliable-way-o-06f1defdf9db
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️
null
null
null
null
null
ehqiufq5az
false
yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "X-risk is pseudoscience and arguably a cult. Loudly insisting you are right does not make it true. Just because you can conceive of something does not ...
Balasar
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,644,377,996
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
Balasar
https://firebasestorage.…591-884055b52182
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
null
null
null
null
null
evtg8rvn6d
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "f7wrrli02vg", "label": "BarbPredicts", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
N.C. Young
goVdTD2RcwLhDYzjrGnj
public
contract
1,717,644,516,953
who-will-win-the-smash-bros-ultimat
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Who will win the Smash Bros. Ultimate tournament at the Manifest Summer Camp?
f7wrrli02vg
null
365.909764
NO
sc4790pyhh
9bv8wrt7w4c
false
pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A similar scenario with a lower bar for success: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
mario pasquato
2icigEyy4Q5kKDEk5NNK
public
contract
1,717,645,407,122
will-an-ai-produce-encyclopediawort
mariopasquato
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
null
0.184653
-0
NO
null
0v47b94axfda
false
mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rMexBWKLsjkK1T6rRLdq", "label": "andri", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Simon Westlake
9d4Uqsf7qgBZXq8SKwrk
public
contract
1,717,645,632,636
will-google-provide-security-and-an
SimonWestlake
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c
Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?
rMexBWKLsjkK1T6rRLdq
null
null
null
null
4lexqvt1pi
false
dsgpEJ98tVhEZIppHnqQkZs4RG43
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zv2itjihe9f", "label": "Panfilo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Kevin N
s4TFyM47lJB2E9Fr9rQ4
public
contract
1,717,645,676,288
will-lionel-messi-make-an-appearanc
KevinN
https://firebasestorage.…77d-e9c43ae39109
Will Lionel Messi make an appearance at any Apple event in the next 12 months?
qh7ljtunut
0.282407
35.391507
NO
null
r3ph4663nk
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thin can resolve YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shelvacu
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,645,722,610
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
1,185.044922
YES
hnug92zg8c
yda877a1yh
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "should this resolve yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,646,079,747
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
2,697.218203
YES
8bca377e66b7
2xeeu0quh86
false
RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "46ypd2t4roo", "label": "SemioticRivalry", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
fish
RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo
public
contract
1,717,646,260,109
will-elon-musk-endorse-trump-for-pr
kurt
https://firebasestorage.…ea6-9b4d3d6f8834
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president?
46ypd2t4roo
0.571643
1,782.191644
NO
null
yiz9v6m13fg
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hcy20mlx714", "label": "Qoiuoiuoiu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
James Baker
2qTKEI8Fmm57AW5xIhxK
public
contract
1,717,646,880,525
will-i-receive-a-managram-of-exactl
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Will I receive a managram of exactly 1434 mana by EOY 2024?
hcy20mlx714
0.99
-0
YES
null
zoes58n1r3g
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What is this. Can I be added", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa
public
contract
1,717,646,928,455
magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)?
null
null
747.224035
NO
j7nyh22rjg
gborv9qhwp
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
James Baker
2qTKEI8Fmm57AW5xIhxK
public
contract
1,717,647,103,366
will-i-receive-a-managram-of-exactl
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Will I receive a managram of exactly 1434 mana by EOY 2024?
hcy20mlx714
0.99
-0
YES
null
0wjb2qek75ql
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zoes58n1r3g", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Savior of Plant
8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa
public
contract
1,717,647,140,287
magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)?
zoes58n1r3g
null
747.224035
NO
j7nyh22rjg
o3b4gekoks
false
mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9jmp0cuss8j", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Simon Westlake
7DaofxEUJmnmvIjE5zbk
public
contract
1,717,647,456,633
will-an-organization-besides-spacex
SimonWestlake
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
9jmp0cuss8j
null
null
null
null
e7imojr3hvo
false
Z6cqvFCKXFbGZRpKuZTqKAhUyHI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I BELIEVE IN YOU ELONG MUSK YOU CAN DO THIS!!!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dennis Zhou
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,717,647,514,423
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
DennisZhou
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMBwpIZq4y_rd63h_3-TJANi0BlCIDUANBrsHjXpnh=s96-c
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
null
0.592508
1,423.45573
YES
null
arb7cer1vzj
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ehqiufq5az", "label": "Balasar", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Stark
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,649,020,527
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
ehqiufq5az
null
null
null
null
hy6ujtmmtwp
false
SLLS1Cdm2HgQqOuBqqHj3JHyYIg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "None of the big labs are going to be making models using only 2024 techniques in 2027. So even if it was possible it isn't going to happen.", ...
lemon10
jIwBvL1UZp18IodWEybE
public
contract
1,717,649,205,286
will-scale-alone-be-enough-to-elimi
lemon10
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLdFzCw5pyxebhPKcD1-atW4BwyXPuFKbDmaWAdQv9y=s96-c
Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?
null
0.185748
122.180431
NO
null
m3kmh3vmp1
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yda877a1yh", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
stefanie
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,649,475,881
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
yda877a1yh
null
1,025.222535
YES
8bca377e66b7
3qo5w6r24cq
false
adacMmaulIhc3gDusLffuvzzXTS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "evtg8rvn6d", "label": "NcyRocks", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Barb Predicts
goVdTD2RcwLhDYzjrGnj
public
contract
1,717,649,506,813
who-will-win-the-smash-bros-ultimat
BarbPredicts
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLT1LFLGGX12IDwTRY5Kh2YM53iLs0BKB1VZnsMa8OAvfPHNg=s96-c
Who will win the Smash Bros. Ultimate tournament at the Manifest Summer Camp?
f7wrrli02vg
null
5,632.527091
NO
3gcirjdlkm
4iuy4hagei9
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3qo5w6r24cq", "label": "BarbPredicts", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
N.C. Young
goVdTD2RcwLhDYzjrGnj
public
contract
1,717,649,666,614
who-will-win-the-smash-bros-ultimat
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Who will win the Smash Bros. Ultimate tournament at the Manifest Summer Camp?
f7wrrli02vg
null
1,440.206481
YES
qy9lvqqqoy
ml12r59m6km
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hcy20mlx714", "label": "Qoiuoiuoiu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
2qTKEI8Fmm57AW5xIhxK
public
contract
1,717,649,765,671
will-i-receive-a-managram-of-exactl
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will I receive a managram of exactly 1434 mana by EOY 2024?
hcy20mlx714
null
null
null
null
ebocc4kwblq
false
yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "arb7cer1vzj", "label": "StarkLN", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Balasar
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,650,096,504
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
Balasar
https://firebasestorage.…591-884055b52182
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
ehqiufq5az
null
null
null
null
xa60izw9qdn
false
Nct7J3kdYWaHjPvRv1STAhv3nHr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think as an effect of reducing sulfur pollution in shipping the earth is still absorbing much more radiation than it’s emitting (on top of the effec...
Will
TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD
public
contract
1,717,650,393,705
will-the-average-global-temperature
will58c
https://firebasestorage.…607-332291ae3805
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?
null
0.759928
4,061.357431
YES
null
tnrhaef5j2h
false
hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "httb97cuu3n", "label": "JessicaEvans", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Garrett Baker
9JNRQ3fhGuyuoW1gN0xL
public
contract
1,717,650,414,291
if-asi-is-created-and-doesnt-wipe-o-bxa1loxmvl
GarrettBaker
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
httb97cuu3n
0.429336
0
NO
null
olnxxl1y34r
false
O9I4q6Z8eqMV3rBAuPqhwTxgiY83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Aren't critics meant to be experts? Why the gap in scores?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "...
pzet
EVsZfKSs0ckwwEko6tbe
public
contract
1,717,650,452,648
will-star-wars-the-acolyte-be-liked
pzet
https://firebasestorage.…532-5891b98d9414
Will Star Wars: The Acolyte be liked by both fans and critics?
null
0.316215
375.22507
NO
null
ukt4naxp0j
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ebocc4kwblq", "label": "Balasar", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Stark
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,650,536,876
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
ehqiufq5az
null
null
null
null
l6oq7f2qwg
false
cSXwuheTh4ZSog0zGNP4iAwE55p2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hochul doesn't have final say, the MTA board still needs to vote on it. The reporting so far hasn't made it clear whether the board will just rubber st...
zQ4Z82W
sohsVVUytgye5wvtzuHu
public
contract
1,717,650,745,602
will-congestion-pricing-in-nyc-be-e
zQ4Z82W
https://firebasestorage.…b48-530a14a6f77d
Will Congestion Pricing in NYC be enforced by the end of 2024?
6mariz4pag
null
null
null
null
3c9m2k3rg9
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1mk3d9lki8q", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,650,835,149
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
1mk3d9lki8q
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
xowa906idph
false
7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Uhm, I hope you like trading fees...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "c...
Interrobang
af4rHHeJIeJddxshCpHr
public
contract
1,717,650,939,547
what-color-will-the-2024-breeders-c
Interrobang
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c
What Color Will The 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic Winning Horse Be?
null
null
1,809.338542
YES
u15i4zhzw8
9hj3u0fjqxl
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Bayesian
WjmliBgkefuLkBvTNDX5
public
contract
1,717,650,995,039
what-cities-in-the-us-will-tetra-vi
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
What cities in the US will Tetra visit in 2024?
s27kchdz8q
null
null
null
null
co6b1d5nv85
false
7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xowa906idph", "label": "Interrobang", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Interrobang
af4rHHeJIeJddxshCpHr
public
contract
1,717,651,214,760
what-color-will-the-2024-breeders-c
Interrobang
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c
What Color Will The 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic Winning Horse Be?
xowa906idph
null
1,766.577142
YES
u15i4zhzw8
99964z6ap8a
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3c9m2k3rg9", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Daniel
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,651,382,476
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
1mk3d9lki8q
null
406.677081
NO
65af0d33c6f5
xigbml5gpiq
false
7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xowa906idph", "label": "Interrobang", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Interrobang
af4rHHeJIeJddxshCpHr
public
contract
1,717,651,412,364
what-color-will-the-2024-breeders-c
Interrobang
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c
What Color Will The 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic Winning Horse Be?
xowa906idph
null
1,766.577142
YES
u15i4zhzw8
2872i6uc9vf
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’m beginning to think just like the first lesson in any kind of boating is tip the boat over and not drown and get it back up, just like the way to de...
ClubmasterTransparent
0nXCz7WDdiacWEUkHL9z
public
contract
1,717,651,457,942
will-i-become-a-manifold-partner-be
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Will I become a Manifold partner before September?
null
null
null
null
null
i18x333yiu
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "99964z6ap8a", "label": "Daniel_MC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,651,597,932
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
1mk3d9lki8q
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
ohchwd5oxj9
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ml12r59m6km", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
James Baker
2qTKEI8Fmm57AW5xIhxK
public
contract
1,717,651,800,577
will-i-receive-a-managram-of-exactl
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Will I receive a managram of exactly 1434 mana by EOY 2024?
hcy20mlx714
0.886757
-0
YES
null
0xaxaffwde8
false
oEpXdWv0VgO5CIyBLQWaXx0Zsxr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is the Basic Economy fare on your airline refundable? (Only a small factor, though)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragr...
amp!
8VPRgCFqsjUQeB0cjbtC
public
contract
1,717,652,164,684
tetrabay-prop-bets
ampdot
https://firebasestorage.…422-41b6f3509ad0
Tetrabay Prop Bets
null
null
8.135005
NO
czg4w9zjn8
z49wugnmxy
false
oEpXdWv0VgO5CIyBLQWaXx0Zsxr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "let's do it in portland!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
amp!
8VPRgCFqsjUQeB0cjbtC
public
contract
1,717,652,211,161
tetrabay-prop-bets
ampdot
https://firebasestorage.…422-41b6f3509ad0
Tetrabay Prop Bets
null
null
13.463326
YES
onhrpiyg0j
oiwafvednmg
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rbitlcqmeo", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
singer
LsdH5sXgMpcjKpiPdaMj
public
contract
1,717,652,325,854
will-i-have-a-positive-view-of-effe
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Will I have a positive view of effective altruism on December 31, 2024?
VebxaXc0kCw9czE9UOHG
0.176445
59.15601
NO
null
58ukkngezlr
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vd4wqol7mf", "label": "firstuserhere", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Soli ꩜
H0bVhKaCt4lCHlZPLpxP
public
contract
1,717,652,566,263
will-apples-ai-assistant-siri-stop
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will Apple's AI Assistant (Siri) stop being a joke before the second half of 2024?
vd4wqol7mf
0.244603
404.004231
NO
null
8vkdkh4c5ti
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v89k28nfrv", "label": "Quroe", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
singer
iIfLvPHgRrCgSgc72i7i
public
contract
1,717,652,645,557
if-another-carrington-event-hit-the
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?
mv4qrq9i2s
null
null
null
null
yl08buoz0e
false
P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dtd3rk54hae", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
houstonEuler
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,653,514,976
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
houstonEuler
https://firebasestorage.…e7b-0ce121292ad7
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
dtd3rk54hae
null
1,394.577581
NO
qhveql8z8j
memz4gekhm
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i18x333yiu", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Plasma Ballin'
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,654,479,804
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
1mk3d9lki8q
null
91.868452
NO
j3ey9jxnir
ajqlufaazwo
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is currently assuming something like an 80% chance of him having to step down if he wins reelection. it's aso much higher than Harris's odds of be...
Shaked Koplewitz
1pokW5hP2xHJUK32ht1x
public
contract
1,717,654,859,638
will-biden-have-to-step-down-from-h
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will Biden have to step down from his current (or any future) Presidential role due to health reasons?
null
0.381041
78.359836
NO
null
y9yb2mbaw0a
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6SIf70SYR9adSlv2kejR", "label": "DavidBolin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
robm
GP7FeJsbtU5Uh2efttSS
public
contract
1,717,655,347,517
if-we-discover-time-travel-what-kin
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
If we discover time travel, what kind will it be?
iETHMwWtzJeC3eyyD9GP
null
null
null
null
cvtj53okhx
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "just a heads up to traders as I've just come across this market on my home feed: this creator has deleted their account and while it's possible they co...
stefanie
laQGHlNpvGGJyR9DPDWW
public
contract
1,717,655,570,938
by-2050-will-development-of-biotech
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
By 2050, will development of biotechnology and genetic engineering render term "transgender" useless?
null
null
null
null
null
r97sin6nchq
false
OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ob02tm6th3", "label": "smithers", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bubbles
5VxIQger5o9WXEObpfZe
public
contract
1,717,656,357,787
open-market-will-i-find-gold-in-cal
Lorelai
https://firebasestorage.…bd3-9614af348f98
[OPEN MARKET] Will I find Gold in California? (And other bets for my trip to CA).
ob02tm6th3
null
57.549689
YES
581b48786011
w28w3y3acna
false
vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think Humane might be cooked. Literally, at this point. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content"...
Marnix
2eYepv728Nb32pjafPkr
public
contract
1,717,656,563,230
will-humane-ai-be-sold-or-fold-in-2
Marnix
https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d
Will Humane AI be sold or fold in 2024?
null
0.610689
250.760707
YES
null
1483fnriz5w
false
UTW7iMRqtrfuSK9t5jXqus4AL1v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is fun. It tricks the bots, and on some level it resolves to \"how much do you trust the market creator to resolve this\". ", "type": "t...
Connor Cone
wC47fGC24eI6Ikmnvt0B
public
contract
1,717,657,064,103
will-post-timeskip-don-krieg-be-pro
ConnorCone
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLdSLirC0b8ThR6gslX_uEJB12VZY-NOmlG8oyEvSmE3mw=s96-c
Will post timeskip Don Krieg be proven to be top 1 by the end of the series?
null
0.6
187.630598
NO
null
apcdej56kt7
false
89PHKCr0tHNvTFhGCfzzRELmUnJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "227up7imaib", "label": "chris", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Sophia Wisdom
MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L
public
contract
1,717,657,268,651
how-much-will-gpt45-inference-cost
sophiawisdom
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu25o7GK9K3P1izY1WQteKhc7mIonzLGps5iL73G=s96-c
How much will gpt-4.5 inference cost per million tokens?
227up7imaib
null
1,129.663656
YES
gh5qi0rntl
bx5e8vwvsy
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If anyone wants to make a market about the rumored Visma | Lease a Bike jersey from a couple months ago, I will buy some No on it.", "type": ...
Eliza
3yG9d20INt3scFpO4cxt
public
contract
1,717,657,908,457
will-team-borahansgrohe-wear-this-j
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will team Bora-Hansgrohe wear this jersey(*) in the 2024 Tour de France?
null
0.86644
18.500068
YES
null
c659s6yaxcs
false
tPJ8WHxP8fdcaPiqjcsWR4qOOgB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This should of been setup as an independent market?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
GregF
J9vyDSiZTpx2spBhzuFW
public
contract
1,717,657,942,683
which-companies-will-have-a-market
GregF
https://storage.googleap…jcsWR4qOOgB3.png
Which companies will have a market cap >= $1 Trillion at the end of 2025?
null
null
252.97311
YES
dde83ca0ec67
tnz6bbxy1w
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0831a6x6uo8r", "label": "mariopasquato", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,658,821,265
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
7wsfec8ynrs
null
null
null
null
vxqy77vntks
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
SirCryptomind
mqQpBT3z2v93w4kjOJCc
public
contract
1,717,658,920,883
-ftse-100-how-will-it-close-on-thu-dj92gze841
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
📈🌎 FTSE 100: How Will It Close On Thu. June 6th 2024 Compared To The Prior Trading Day?
null
null
null
null
null
lbfh43jp0cq
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
SirCryptomind
mT7i8GkasyGnbaACvMpa
public
contract
1,717,659,089,848
-will-the-average-price-of-electric-7a5c442f9214
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
💲⚡ Will The Average Price Of Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Be Below $0.17 At The End Of May 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
z1qmxi4v27
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
SirCryptomind
whKvdM0jCos37I3hyqH5
public
contract
1,717,659,145,902
-will-the-average-price-of-fresh-wh-cd5905141f83
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
💲🥛 Will The Average Price Of Fresh Whole Milk (Gal.) Be Below $3.87 At The End Of May 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
e0pl8218ky9
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "Illustrated gif. Pixelated rendering of an open egg carton full of eggs with different emoji faces, popping up one by one with a small speech bubble that says \"hi.\"", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, ...
SirCryptomind
cP0jS6nKXxDKwnacd604
public
contract
1,717,659,159,721
-will-the-average-price-of-a-dozen-4b65e64bceb3
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
💲🥚 Will The Average Price Of A Dozen Eggs Be Below $2.50 At The End Of May 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
d1vhh932cce
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
SirCryptomind
a0sdmOfxP15unjiIu7YV
public
contract
1,717,659,226,386
when-will-the-ability-to-p2p-transf
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
The New Deal: When Will The Ability To P2P Transfer Managrams "Officially" Cease To Exist?
null
null
0
NO
51fc13db6844
hps2cndjtqh
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Statista predicts Sweden remains higher ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Shaked Koplewitz
AfDTx6DqUmIditBt1vUd
public
contract
1,717,659,235,607
in-2028-will-israels-gdp-per-capita
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
In 2028, will Israel's GDP per Capita be higher than Sweden's?
null
0.327749
831.256464
YES
null
uhl269xo7j
false
gGDWCSpUoZQuU4G2cyZmCgOUmNS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "please resolve the market :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kian_spire
YZbMS2rxlVKAzGA8X7Ch
public
contract
1,717,660,455,465
manifold-lottery-20x-return-08e4f0842b18
kian_spire
https://firebasestorage.…2d5-48c8affb6aa8
Manifold Lottery (20x return)
null
0.063421
9,376.465073
YES
null
pkd7sv9f2cb
false
aYwZvdAWKEfZrR1CGgYQ4fd9WDs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "why is this going down over time. someone please unilaterally fix this ;) thanks", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
Roman Hauksson
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,660,526,928
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
RomanHauksson
https://firebasestorage.…377-3a21cda4e609
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
49.531406
NO
20c6b9b49614
xmakzhy5na
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kye7q1vbr1", "label": "Tomoffer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,717,660,624,020
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer)
kye7q1vbr1
null
null
null
null
ctzzbutdvrj
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Eliza
QmB5lddNV6y584os08s2
public
contract
1,717,660,777,468
will-atmospheric-co-concentration-e-0eba12877c7f
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 425 ppm in 2025?
nOn8ZruYVKYLKfUx9wsM
null
null
null
null
1121zki5yj1p
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is without a doubt one of the questions of all time on Manifold.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ]...
Bruno
7foUpkpg3WTbMqVV2crK
public
contract
1,717,660,874,798
will-most-women-accept-payment-for
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will most women accept payment for sex from most men (independently and without any need for managers/pimps) by 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
i913638ds8q
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wfkplf6s72h", "label": "cash", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Shaked Koplewitz
nyDbZJEncGQDNQfgC350
public
contract
1,717,661,226,681
will-narendra-modi-cease-to-be-prim
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?
wfkplf6s72h
null
null
null
null
y73rwnf35yr
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Gaz Downright
ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE
public
contract
1,717,662,336,467
will-trump-face-any-significant-rep
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict?
null
null
null
null
null
5qam597fr1i
false
CPlXdJKwuZO5BCSwCYx9K2hsjvS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Important", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matthew Ritter
RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g
public
contract
1,717,662,381,840
with-the-third-human-case-of-h5n1-b
MatthewRitter
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7hT6A6WnKdg6GZN4_xcTB5qlG3a9q9kGSMItp7Pd8=s96-c
With the third human case of H5N1 Bird Flu reported in US, how many human cases will be confirmed in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
fvvf6szmixp
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1121zki5yj1p", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
ismellpillows
7foUpkpg3WTbMqVV2crK
public
contract
1,717,662,588,176
will-most-women-accept-payment-for
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
Will most women accept payment for sex from most men (independently and without any need for managers/pimps) by 2026?
1121zki5yj1p
null
null
null
null
br7sx45scas
false
aZ6rgcMCiwUS21XEytzvBmIPwK43
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you need money or don't know what to do, I recommend visiting lets lucky casino - ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs"...
Goyo Dinielli
gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH
public
contract
1,717,662,950,749
will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
GoyoDinielli
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKlg8vPxP-krayD84J4Ei0QZqJbbLVlx7JBhZ98z_i-sz3JmA=s96-c
Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June?
null
null
null
null
null
ea3yopwf9rh
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Added a clause in the case of community service. Does it seem fair? I welcome your feedback.", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
Gaz Downright
ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE
public
contract
1,717,663,019,990
will-trump-face-any-significant-rep
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict?
null
null
null
null
null
rfwzrcvmyi
false
XVSud6CnM3RwmREartV6iimAvRP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My money's on yes: the national government of unity is unpopular and desperately trying to hold onto power, and I can see them trying to BS their way t...
astroblob
e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8
public
contract
1,717,663,587,230
will-israel-declare-war-on-hezbolla
astroblob
https://firebasestorage.…fc2-333249fb40f5
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
null
0.502135
94.095634
YES
null
j4a70qgl2ji
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does death count? Like we hear nothing and then one day he's just dead?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Jessica Evans
4GtLyfQk0wzCaV1V4u7C
public
contract
1,717,663,761,724
major-revelation-about-trumps-healt
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
Major revelation about Trump's health, negative, before 2026
null
0.626138
7.77038
YES
null
r86jzjflg5
false
ErrdqYQwz5dyjNTOj5Ee3G2FlYH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It depends on the exact definition of declaring war. I'm not sure if Russia has even now \"declared war\" on Ukraine. But in a common sense \"de facto\...
Jon Wharf
e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8
public
contract
1,717,663,840,858
will-israel-declare-war-on-hezbolla
JonWharf
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIRl9lgtNXOk76Ezq9u52bgS8-9BBqVEANCwz7FEuqhsQ=s96-c
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
vhlc8pg8u4e
false
6vwITZEdnidsaEGmbxBZL2EYmXt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "at3nsh1p6ws", "label": "nollfem", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Raph
zv3sghtI0iLwculPD6V1
public
contract
1,717,663,946,703
how-many-hours-will-it-take-wirtual
Raph
https://storage.googleap…bxBZL2EYmXt2.png
How many hours will it take Wirtual to beat Deep Dip 2?
91ks985dcx
null
0
NO
052a21ebce76
e82xxbn14e
false
P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This market is beautiful ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Brad
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,664,103,904
how-many-hits-after-30-days
summer_of_bliss
https://firebasestorage.…2a4-c539f0d4fb50
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
jwelz8czrs
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "we should make a general use video we can send to anyones gf / so", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "c...
chris (strutheo)
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,664,326,664
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
481.579558
YES
3a72cde210bc
aetr7rgggka
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jwelz8czrs", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Genzy
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,664,576,912
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
jwelz8czrs
null
1,833.871001
NO
9f2ed75622f4
ebym8qaikx7
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A solid strategy here would be to steal one sheet of paper, making it 999, and bet heavily on NO 😎", "type": "text" } ], ...
Gaz Downright
CDuYbTQ0Q9ABXoE12xHP
public
contract
1,717,664,798,538
will-they-fold-1000-paper-cranes-at
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will they fold 1000 paper cranes at Summer Camp and Manifest 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
67vbdgryaq5
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "about a month in ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "c...
chris (strutheo)
1y0FHXHuFnJAuSndRGKJ
public
contract
1,717,664,931,532
coolfold-financial-advice-suggest-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
💰CoolFold Financial Advice: Suggest Investments for Me & Predict their ROI in 6 months, invest & win real money!
null
null
null
null
null
ml0tpgmew5
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ebym8qaikx7", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
CDuYbTQ0Q9ABXoE12xHP
public
contract
1,717,664,968,431
will-they-fold-1000-paper-cranes-at
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will they fold 1000 paper cranes at Summer Camp and Manifest 2024?
ebym8qaikx7
null
null
null
null
o1d22dezfzb
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "about a month in ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "c...
chris (strutheo)
ww1rEG9yipAzwyt2NPqb
public
contract
1,717,664,979,701
of-the-10-coolfold-financial-portfo-d75c9ce849e6
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Of the 10 CoolFold Financial portfolio stocks, which will perform the best?
null
null
0
NO
2dd8461d7f3e
xqpwo1em68b
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "about a month in ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "c...
chris (strutheo)
Vu7TIhyEdMEkb2X6mGSA
public
contract
1,717,664,984,779
of-the-10-coolfold-financial-portfo
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Of the 10 CoolFold Financial portfolio stocks, which will perform the worst?
null
null
0
NO
136ff70e9282
6cfmijo6vao
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "about a month in ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "c...
chris (strutheo)
dj5bArre1QqVeOeP0XrC
public
contract
1,717,665,003,815
will-nvidia-nvda-outperform-five-or
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Nvidia NVDA outperform five or more of the CoolFold Financial stock picks? Will I regret not picking it?
null
null
null
null
null
2sq8j8plgh8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "about a month in , you can check the link in the description for a spreadsheet tracking the prices. ", "type": "text" } ], ...
chris (strutheo)
AirfQGjl8qoYC1I3OQUG
public
contract
1,717,665,039,515
financial-advice-which-five-investm
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which five investments here will have the best returns 6 months after May 1st 2024?
null
null
1,098.820796
NO
0e5607a271eb
5tpim5acfc8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "about a month in ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "c...
chris (strutheo)
IfBfOYfAbu8u0Tlir6uJ
public
contract
1,717,665,053,151
what-will-be-the-overall-roi-of-my-388c53ed4654
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
What will be the overall ROI of the CoolFold Financial Portfolio after 6 months?
null
null
null
null
null
essttijb1kt
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "about a month in ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "c...
chris (strutheo)
AuVRc8mAIU68fbiAj31m
public
contract
1,717,665,056,287
will-my-coolfold-financial-portfoli
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months?
null
null
null
null
null
9tb5012xter
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h5b7eek9l3h", "label": "Mad", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Madge
PqUHmGF921vb1Dpmo3fz
public
contract
1,717,665,293,742
manifold-makes-a-cake-ingredients-p
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below.
h5b7eek9l3h
null
null
null
null
cqj7mk7god
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "j4a70qgl2ji", "label": "JessicaEvans", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ernie
4GtLyfQk0wzCaV1V4u7C
public
contract
1,717,665,807,440
major-revelation-about-trumps-healt
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Major revelation about Trump's health, negative, before 2026
j4a70qgl2ji
0.62806
18.333333
YES
null
x4u4pzw3v3h
false
XpgYJDQoowbFUY5iSAjzxgKtNgC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lnLC8qEiz0aJXDRRkYRXEPaxKpM2", "label": "CollectedOverSpread", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type":...
Savio Mak
MuLx7lL0NSRNP2beYSP3
public
contract
1,717,666,052,094
will-discord-web-stop-completely-ta
SavioMak
https://firebasestorage.…de8-28222b5121b5
Will discord (web) stop completely taking over Ctrl+Shift+T before 2025?
7wiw493wgw
0.613936
111.176471
NO
null
tovc7xtyw6
false
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Perhaps 77% is too high a percentage on a bet that Karen Read will walk away with \"not guilty\" on all counts? If you think so, put some Mana down!", ...
Ken Michaels
iNgnYPhSJonrD4RTH8so
public
contract
1,717,666,567,001
will-karen-read-be-found-not-guilty
kenmichaels
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
Will Karen Read be found NOT GUILTY on all the crimes she is charged with?
null
0.773871
245.124141
YES
null
ecc0mmhfp3p
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Since this specifies \"negative\" I assume if we find out Trump has discovered the secret to immortality that wouldn't qualify.", "type": "te...
Shaked Koplewitz
4GtLyfQk0wzCaV1V4u7C
public
contract
1,717,666,811,043
major-revelation-about-trumps-healt
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Major revelation about Trump's health, negative, before 2026
null
0.62806
72.900601
NO
null
qkvinxj0rjg
false
XpgYJDQoowbFUY5iSAjzxgKtNgC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dtusmtyd4gm", "label": "CollectedOverSpread", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Savio Mak
MuLx7lL0NSRNP2beYSP3
public
contract
1,717,666,817,380
will-discord-web-stop-completely-ta
SavioMak
https://firebasestorage.…de8-28222b5121b5
Will discord (web) stop completely taking over Ctrl+Shift+T before 2025?
7wiw493wgw
0.613936
0
NO
null
o9gzrx44bys
false
LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is an easy yes. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enrico Susatyo
hrNdYrfqheBedy310G04
public
contract
1,717,666,975,368
nvda-returns-over-the-next-10-years
esusatyo
https://firebasestorage.…a98-6f3b503a06f8
NVDA returns over the next 10 years will outperform the returns of CSCO between 1999 and 2009
null
0.591592
455.239871
YES
null
pye153v5mr
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6297btcfw6i", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Kongo Landwalker
slYkBKCtJonn3LjOVSVr
public
contract
1,717,667,022,012
the-solution-to-fermi-paradoxs-grea
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish
8x4326vttfv
null
null
null
null
ebb8cf6xrqj
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xWfgfpw24sPrCYMCAnSMUOHrPwD2", "label": "FUTURESEARCH", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
IY
VLob8DKDvxddUdZwGP1d
public
contract
1,717,667,269,870
will-global-investment-in-clean-ene
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will global investment in clean energy exceed $1.9 trillion in 2024, per the International Energy Agency?
null
0.661694
57.229988
NO
null
ajtgjgndbzo
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So this is interesting - at 36/351 rotten, a single rotten review makes >89% resolve NO, but if any fresh review lands, then two rotten review are requ...
Martin Modrák
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,717,668,302,853
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
1,956.360958
NO
xnlugwdoai
6ipwziaksz
false
8tpyEuONEicPEGLBzBEPuvtHded2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are you sure?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Greyhawk
6ycryVQbP5qaGcJpfWgx
public
contract
1,717,668,437,252
will-the-next-uk-government-be-a-co
Greyhawk
https://firebasestorage.…2e4-da1e5dd7348f
Will the next UK Government be a coalition?
null
0.070296
0
NO
null
keb75uf7tg
false
TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Spoiler: recommendation engines have already caused an increase in suicide, which arguably already meets this criteria", "type": "text" ...
John Carpenter
YuUohD0RPHlNUoi5MDfg
public
contract
1,717,668,840,611
in-the-first-event-when-ai-kills-at
JohnCarpenter
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbnMbgGdE9ZUUqzpL2THIy9BWVUALl8URxyyYemF9Ib6JghmvmNA=s96-c
In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?
null
null
null
null
null
6labitjxkam
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Tim Dodd just said that according to Elon \"the payload for IFT4 is 'data'\", as in, no payload. He did a tour with Elon yesterday.", "type":...
Mqrius
sV7GLounaDuoCs5SX5rR
public
contract
1,717,670,005,917
will-ift4-carry-starlink-satellites
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will IFT-4 carry Starlink satellites?
null
0.034411
1,088.086902
NO
null