id
stringlengths
8
13
isApi
bool
2 classes
userId
stringlengths
28
28
content
dict
userName
stringlengths
1
30
contractId
stringlengths
9
20
visibility
stringclasses
2 values
commentType
stringclasses
1 value
createdTime
int64
1,716B
1,720B
contractSlug
stringlengths
5
48
userUsername
stringlengths
1
25
userAvatarUrl
stringlengths
50
1.03k
contractQuestion
stringlengths
2
240
replyToCommentId
stringlengths
8
20
commentorPositionProb
float64
0
50
commentorPositionShares
float64
-0
6.25M
commentorPositionOutcome
stringclasses
2 values
commentorPositionAnswerId
stringlengths
9
12
3gp4hjc8fd
false
nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xjfu3wkic8s", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
A W
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,717,681,490,158
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Exegesis
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJDC1ewhAjvtN_WJ9gk6XMTk-YbPEG7uLzvMLdsBGyiUEA=s96-c
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
xjfu3wkic8s
null
69.88757
YES
1tjr3wsk0t
vo8jwq16ysa
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k60c4ru33u", "label": "dionisos", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
poXj2r4HOqAmeM35MJKH
public
contract
1,717,681,492,264
will-openphil-think-it-is-better-to
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will OpenPhil think it's better to spend mana creating EA prediction markets at $1 rather than donate it to EA LTFF?
mtnmizwnurd
0.504148
11.366769
NO
null
37f0wu90v4z
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ektdiuxqc1", "label": "SimonWestlake", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jack
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,681,556,646
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
ektdiuxqc1
null
3,077.536865
NO
fe76fea64dd8
z3jxw5p21to
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "m...
Quantum Gambler
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,717,681,671,958
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
null
0.560769
372.194592
NO
null
wg7w9wxvguq
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We Hebben Een Serieus Probleem", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG
public
contract
1,717,681,747,375
will-starship-ift4-survive-past-the
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading]
null
0.991992
13,334.825025
NO
null
7ubdyxpedzv
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wg7w9wxvguq", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Mqrius
wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG
public
contract
1,717,681,781,862
will-starship-ift4-survive-past-the
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading]
wg7w9wxvguq
0.991992
4,935.196087
YES
null
802i9mf6i0y
false
mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "37f0wu90v4z", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Simon Westlake
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,681,815,888
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
SimonWestlake
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
ektdiuxqc1
null
460.105374
YES
92cd3c194988
7tnats9ow18
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7ubdyxpedzv", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
JRP
wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG
public
contract
1,717,681,886,877
will-starship-ift4-survive-past-the
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading]
wg7w9wxvguq
0.991992
0
NO
null
41pzibwx7e2
false
tUUM7zQaxVOYk3BIs7FQMIk0yvp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "free dip lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lucas Thelen
wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG
public
contract
1,717,681,902,337
will-starship-ift4-survive-past-the
LucasThelen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIW-tR7hjhIpn0khOJZHSae_6z5FKhoCOqQLHJuq3IY=s96-c
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading]
null
0.991992
466.774358
YES
null
45ztdu3xyht
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "37 km…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG
public
contract
1,717,681,938,113
will-starship-ift4-survive-past-the
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading]
null
0.991992
0
NO
null
gqjpzgkncp
false
mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "37f0wu90v4z", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Simon Westlake
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,021,550
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
SimonWestlake
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
ektdiuxqc1
null
460.105374
YES
92cd3c194988
dzo0x58mmn
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gqjpzgkncp", "label": "SimonWestlake", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jack
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,081,625
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
ektdiuxqc1
null
55,469.860905
YES
92cd3c194988
j6r8h7wl2i
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The flap that could…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG
public
contract
1,717,682,090,011
will-starship-ift4-survive-past-the
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading]
null
0.991992
0
NO
null
h8868j1fk4g
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "HOW ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG
public
contract
1,717,682,098,120
will-starship-ift4-survive-past-the
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading]
null
0.991992
4,935.196087
YES
null
09tghft44jwo
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It survived - barely!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,108,399
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
null
null
55,469.860905
YES
92cd3c194988
teq51qfish
false
jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "'Intact'? Too soon", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Roberto Gomez
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,185,968
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
RobertoGomez
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
null
null
10,253.395172
YES
3f9d787d7d6f
1jp3ox9cgqp
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They called out landing burn, but the engines didn't light up on the telemetry display", "type": "text" } ], "type": "par...
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,195,344
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
null
null
11,089.250211
NO
u6uq4n84kx
69kd8dm7il2
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1jp3ox9cgqp", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mqrius
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,213,815
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
11,014.30238
YES
u6uq4n84kx
juub6j3znkk
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "69kd8dm7il2", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,231,776
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
11,403.981663
NO
u6uq4n84kx
fxytlqqggn9
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1jp3ox9cgqp", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mqrius
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,243,666
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
11,014.30238
YES
u6uq4n84kx
95jehp3wvha
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wow, this was a rollercoaster", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Oleg Eterevsky
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,287,792
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
null
null
5,872.62055
YES
yetpbiqwsp
168pggypkq
false
xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What did this resolve based on?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Scipio Fabius
IWIGTaGRxU1VaGFxx6e2
public
contract
1,717,682,288,632
will-any-of-the-ww2-veterans-attend
ScipioFabius
https://firebasestorage.…63c-5ef26e7166e2
Will any of the WW2 veterans attending the 80th anniversary of D-Day die during (or traveling to/from) the celebrations?
null
1
192.151378
NO
null
in5pxuazwer
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fxytlqqggn9", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,296,853
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
11,754.778302
NO
yetpbiqwsp
qzxe5zi9rf8
false
9wgDikkDsrXGGe5iWPYeepjRlho2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Damn", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mr. Cheeto
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,348,615
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
B1e0e
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJB9Sdrjd6SUdvXAodTU3tkPBxasfiVaxxURbr0j5Av=s96-c
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
null
null
1,225.860374
YES
yetpbiqwsp
jjeavk5il4
false
oNShNEPoPcYuHlt1qLDI4h0aanq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lol rollercoaster", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Riley
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,363,894
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
Riley12
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJGeBzVZ_qeAFxPlHJlOK7i-rFKw0rHA8xyQd0CcpRW-w=s96-c
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
null
null
null
null
null
9i8c8e3nni
false
PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Lisa Marsh
cVU4A3zFtzBL3GaEcv1l
public
contract
1,717,682,368,020
will-jeremy-hunt-lose-his-seat-at-t
lisamarsh
https://firebasestorage.…baf-262c369f8514
Will Jeremy Hunt lose his seat at the next general election?
null
null
null
null
null
qrzbmt1oqsr
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Without exploding\" is what that meant, as per the previous sentences (sorry for any confusion)", "type": "text" } ], "...
Jack
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,413,257
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
teq51qfish
null
55,469.860905
YES
92cd3c194988
vg7ialeoh6
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I assume this is being measured after their 10:1 stock split tomorrow.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Timothy Johnson
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,682,469,893
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
1,227.487417
YES
a7fd6e4ae5ac
y097v7w2wni
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't think it was a RUD? Any confirmation that there was no RUD before it hit the water?", "type": "text" } ], "type":...
Jack
v2YvLhpRPyrQ7hfbeB0R
public
contract
1,717,682,490,793
will-spacexs-4th-starship-test-flig
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
null
null
12,499.425157
NO
66062dcb01ca
0aw7y306gcya
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ping ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "stru...
Timothy Johnson
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,682,520,589
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
zmy3x9wrez
null
1,227.487417
YES
a7fd6e4ae5ac
ek9stv21lam
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0v0tmeg14vl", "label": "CarmelHadar", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Al Quinn
ZslgmdOyz0d0YqjTem3i
public
contract
1,717,682,571,807
will-israel-and-hizballa-significan
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will israel and hizballa significantly increase their conflict during the first half of 2024
933l17vhd9c
0.535726
879.790824
NO
null
5vhltw6917u
false
zRMxfUt51RcEIcZkuw6ySiNJYBE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Doug Burgum is a billionaire and among the three finalists. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "bh...
Algorithmovigilance
9puOB2Nvl5ZIYDvJATO2
public
contract
1,717,682,581,756
will-trumps-vp-be-a-billionaire
algorithmovigilance
https://firebasestorage.…263-3088e8472773
Will Trump's VP be a billionaire?
null
null
null
null
null
3lqbn8djhcd
false
mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y097v7w2wni", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Simon Westlake
v2YvLhpRPyrQ7hfbeB0R
public
contract
1,717,682,611,353
will-spacexs-4th-starship-test-flig
SimonWestlake
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c
Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
y097v7w2wni
null
275.290928
NO
4547daf8c8b7
utu2n1yfkwm
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Might be", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
otpnKUaaiCzX8dTpeeoD
public
contract
1,717,682,635,283
is-the-universe-infinite-in-extent
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Is the universe infinite in extent?
null
null
null
null
null
2hnj3kf5wtj
false
jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qrzbmt1oqsr", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Roberto Gomez
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,664,415
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
RobertoGomez
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
teq51qfish
null
10,253.395172
YES
3f9d787d7d6f
q9u2c39zxsi
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Pretty sure it hit the water without any RUD. Any confirmation yet?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,666,263
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
null
null
12,811.771303
NO
yetpbiqwsp
xbg4wxjx6a
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y097v7w2wni", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mqrius
v2YvLhpRPyrQ7hfbeB0R
public
contract
1,717,682,681,083
will-spacexs-4th-starship-test-flig
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
y097v7w2wni
null
172.988142
YES
4547daf8c8b7
4c5bx6wsura
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Reminder:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,682,691,916
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
null
null
12,811.771303
NO
yetpbiqwsp
sfxj0l27v6
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xuwlz2khrwg", "label": "Panfilo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Andrew
biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV
public
contract
1,717,682,717,462
will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?
xuwlz2khrwg
0.773866
134.615521
NO
null
1twhpcy77mx
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2hnj3kf5wtj", "label": "RobertoGomez", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jack
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,789,956
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
teq51qfish
null
55,469.860905
YES
92cd3c194988
dmiget4svd
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "When did I make 6k profit on this? Lol I bet on everything both ways, was distracted 😅😅", "type": "text" } ], "type": "...
Mqrius
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,810,847
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
null
null
15,454.061983
NO
3f9d787d7d6f
diluzooh51k
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xuwlz2khrwg", "label": "Panfilo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Andrew
biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV
public
contract
1,717,682,868,868
will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?
xuwlz2khrwg
0.773866
340.117233
NO
null
32j2nrnscw
false
8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm assuming the play tier is for joke markets (like this one)? Also please correct me if im wrong about any details. In particular, I am not sure if: ...
AhmedButCooler
F84e1fa3nCadAViERJwQ
public
contract
1,717,682,911,731
will-the-technological-singularity
AhmedButCooler
https://firebasestorage.…c5d-88709946cd32
Will the technological singularity occur before Yandere Simulator is finished?
null
null
null
null
null
ltrey14yp8d
false
7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I actually like that the market closed before the flight. It preserves the actual prediction info. We can see what people actually thought before the f...
Dan Homerick
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,717,682,943,407
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
DanHomerick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
null
1
2,895.594044
YES
null
h1fauh58b06
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,682,985,470
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
6,134.082089
YES
c0ae959fc0e3
l5jgqumkwcl
false
DE1FYFMgweXNSXYflp2pM7vaxRv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dmiget4svd", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
harfe
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,682,985,888
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
harfe
https://firebasestorage.…147-27e3c3a25e7e
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
dmiget4svd
null
3,506.323482
YES
92cd3c194988
oqjiodgj2y
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,682,986,654
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
9d2lj3svo2
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will the next Starship survive reentry?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "...
Jack
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
public
contract
1,717,683,002,589
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
null
null
55,469.860905
YES
92cd3c194988
ba4k90bfd49
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,683,031,787
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
gxjzgp4u0ub
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves Yes!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
eL4bn3N5Ed79xHAw7gYG
public
contract
1,717,683,146,902
will-the-starship-booster-successfu
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will the Starship successfully execute a controlled re-entry during its fourth flight test?
null
0.956732
9,632.021539
YES
null
3jxw79rll2r
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ltrey14yp8d", "label": "DanHomerick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Al Quinn
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,717,683,157,647
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
ltrey14yp8d
1
5,209.785279
YES
null
vwy1p3b7hjp
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves No Explosion", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
E7kiGYTR1MrUbZKLdD54
public
contract
1,717,683,212,769
when-will-the-fourth-starship-test
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
When will the fourth Starship Test Flight End? [resolves to one only]
null
null
1,584.776249
YES
331a75a97266
qt2lag5xyw
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves 1 to 4 h", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
4qR2zc45bz3NqaiQQMP0
public
contract
1,717,683,264,849
how-long-will-the-next-starship-fli-609cfd118913
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
How long will the next Starship flight (after Mar. '24) last?
null
null
168.226039
YES
30a81edd9011
sjj2pncvdw
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think one should have a high prior probability that anything which is a known agonist of taste-sweetness receptors might also be an agonist of other ...
Jonathan Ray
KB2Mmer2iM1y2yuHEIMM
public
contract
1,717,683,291,379
what-will-be-my-credence-in-2030-in
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
What will be my credence in 2030 that Erythritol net reduces lifespan in humans?
null
0.18093
20.169411
NO
null
l8sdcopen9q
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3jxw79rll2r", "label": "AlQuinn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mqrius
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,717,683,338,541
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
ltrey14yp8d
1
1,701.616167
YES
null
9rs94ptdq8p
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves No", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
QzEp5HlWcXywqAWMxhcq
public
contract
1,717,683,369,020
will-the-next-starship-launch-ift4
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will the next Starship launch (IFT-4) be scheduled for 4/20, 5/4, 6/9, or 7/11?
null
0.030641
1,453.588263
NO
null
8wljfe4v7o6
false
8hXOLnmHuSPcXnKAycyXu3Zlc852
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This was incredible to watch ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Homesick Alien
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,683,390,219
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
HomesickAlien
https://firebasestorage.…e7e-1a9329fc6a6c
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
null
null
111.589966
YES
w9luyqxe1g
uybriwxu21
false
zxMEiyi30YNN9tJvhq2hIC35QmJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gxjzgp4u0ub", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Sinuboh
eL4bn3N5Ed79xHAw7gYG
public
contract
1,717,683,506,841
will-the-starship-booster-successfu
sinuboh
https://firebasestorage.…040-69a98bd9c8c3
Will the Starship successfully execute a controlled re-entry during its fourth flight test?
gxjzgp4u0ub
0.956732
2,353.007085
YES
null
gtjkev2e3lo
false
ARFFSxd5NDdvNHBLOFGO9BgUMPv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Confirmation of soft landing: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [...
Simon Stark
v2YvLhpRPyrQ7hfbeB0R
public
contract
1,717,683,551,758
will-spacexs-4th-starship-test-flig
zxcvbn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK_IeEdSon3PfzSGHmblXJ2KSIlDLr30e1U3mfl9t0r2qD5Vw=s96-c
Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
null
null
881.549007
NO
4547daf8c8b7
jqpl2i3swbm
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ltrey14yp8d", "label": "DanHomerick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jack
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,717,683,605,096
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
ltrey14yp8d
1
21,504.203622
NO
null
pi0hdpda3ce
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iufmyl7b8is", "label": "Glitzkrieg", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Savior of Plant
8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa
public
contract
1,717,683,815,346
magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)?
zoes58n1r3g
null
1,821.754829
NO
ncyzfauf52
6r8x6m19yct
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Confirmed ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,683,817,727
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
q9u2c39zxsi
null
12,811.771303
NO
yetpbiqwsp
k4rdnx24zt
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Nathan Wei
sNvW83UKz56mRDfUBvZQ
public
contract
1,717,683,968,522
will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-9d4386c2f0ad
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 4th?
null
0.21
396.079127
NO
null
x1hoc6kucv
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "in5pxuazwer", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
robm
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,684,052,937
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
40.229841
YES
yetpbiqwsp
xft1wrg62mp
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x1hoc6kucv", "label": "robm", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mqrius
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,684,156,900
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
11,014.30238
YES
u6uq4n84kx
tsezk5ryrun
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,684,158,524
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
6,134.082089
YES
c0ae959fc0e3
pbr3s1hv4lk
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x1hoc6kucv", "label": "robm", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,684,175,112
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
12,811.771303
NO
yetpbiqwsp
m2mx46ia3v
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pbr3s1hv4lk", "label": "jack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mqrius
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,684,289,119
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
11,014.30238
YES
u6uq4n84kx
s5xg2a842t
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5tF58t0rlgMs9b53WjFh8xOPuAS2", "label": "AnjanPoudel5d85", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
Mqrius
eL4bn3N5Ed79xHAw7gYG
public
contract
1,717,684,371,858
will-the-starship-booster-successfu
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will the Starship successfully execute a controlled re-entry during its fourth flight test?
gxjzgp4u0ub
0.980039
9,632.021539
YES
null
krjqskapwhg
false
RsNwkMMutGaBDhrfyppVO0D9sxu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "tempted to conclude Yes on the basis of this last flight where they ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Brian Olson
8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI
public
contract
1,717,684,399,211
will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a
BrianOlson
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4NyY4PCRs1rzNP5HdoRKyH1jHBp266BUTaLAA_gw=s96-c
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
null
0.94
17.754342
YES
null
deut6ht9hip
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ok, thanks. Will continue waiting for confirmation but it does sound like it will be a YES. For future markets I will revise the criteria for the landi...
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,684,399,332
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
1jp3ox9cgqp
null
12,811.771303
NO
yetpbiqwsp
mhawaa9q5q
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "krjqskapwhg", "label": "BrianOlson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mqrius
8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI
public
contract
1,717,684,472,620
will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
krjqskapwhg
0.94
853.128392
YES
null
r3d68rux4qn
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "T series has made it to 267M.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": nu...
Christopher Randles
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,684,624,602
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
null
0.014114
15,366.230189
NO
null
8jnn9qwju34
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Further, if the ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ {...
Chris Billington
8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI
public
contract
1,717,684,625,996
will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
krjqskapwhg
0.94
6,382.343595
YES
null
9adlqdl1me
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "mMAgdlDgAADfTwXfWOXK", "label": "/OlegEte...
Oleg Eterevsky
J0pMpdL4h7DYzuujSswy
public
contract
1,717,684,748,139
is-the-preprint-suggesting-betelgeu
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?
null
null
null
null
null
tmi5wrv8ph
false
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Ammon Lam
YZbMS2rxlVKAzGA8X7Ch
public
contract
1,717,684,772,512
manifold-lottery-20x-return-08e4f0842b18
AmmonLam
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
Manifold Lottery (20x return)
null
0.060266
10,581.077355
NO
null
jgslvz28uua
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
YZbMS2rxlVKAzGA8X7Ch
public
contract
1,717,684,776,244
manifold-lottery-20x-return-08e4f0842b18
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold Lottery (20x return)
null
null
null
null
null
pumecvidwd
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
YZbMS2rxlVKAzGA8X7Ch
public
contract
1,717,684,832,563
manifold-lottery-20x-return-08e4f0842b18
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Manifold Lottery (20x return)
null
null
null
null
null
adq2wd9uiw4
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Okay that's just rude.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
YZbMS2rxlVKAzGA8X7Ch
public
contract
1,717,684,877,458
manifold-lottery-20x-return-08e4f0842b18
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Manifold Lottery (20x return)
null
null
null
null
null
2i2c32h5v6r
false
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uhl269xo7j", "label": "kian_spire", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ammon Lam
YZbMS2rxlVKAzGA8X7Ch
public
contract
1,717,684,901,255
manifold-lottery-20x-return-08e4f0842b18
AmmonLam
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
Manifold Lottery (20x return)
uhl269xo7j
0.060266
169,092.087137
NO
null
c7j1cb58z6
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7247c23l51m", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
i0xQBsSte7AFoptwbxDN
public
contract
1,717,684,925,808
is-narendra-modi-going-for-a-third
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Is Narendra Modi going for a third term?
7247c23l51m
0.979565
2,060.422729
YES
null
gddfj1dt9th
false
Kh8RxHF4w5Ove09idxV3XGMve3A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What is going on with this market? The press release literally talks about their use of blockchain in a press release about superconductors, and nothin...
Tychon Notos
clTFayGYeSB6LWc2AaIU
public
contract
1,717,684,987,566
has-taj-quantum-invented-a-roomtemp
TychonNotos
https://firebasestorage.…bea-63c085374a44
Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?
null
null
null
null
null
v0l9wuwul28
false
0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The real question is if Israel will declare way on Hezbollah before I come back from Manifest", "type": "text" } ], "type...
colorednoise
e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8
public
contract
1,717,685,265,467
will-israel-declare-war-on-hezbolla
colorednoise
https://firebasestorage.…7c5-3d0b33690749
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
3iw5q65lt61
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He is desperate.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ {...
Predictor 🔥
FqSCnItbpLOhc75uSc2a
public
contract
1,717,685,344,910
will-tesla-incorporate-in-texas-bef
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Will Tesla incorporate in Texas before 2027?
null
0.4
258.045196
YES
null
trxj23lha4d
false
bNaCDzi4STgSXOy5dOuOvhBxxoX2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "… Does a podcast with a transcript count as a blog post?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
Patrick McKenzie
TFpQevnPGrUpEpexYrEu
public
contract
1,717,685,384,512
will-patio11-make-a-blog-post-about
patio11
https://firebasestorage.…96f-ed42aa2f80fd
Will patio11 make a blog post about prediction markets by 2025?
null
0.2
406.726232
NO
null
sv0e48uj01
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That was much more successful than I expected!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
B4iCY2svZYRZpUYaSFyB
public
contract
1,717,685,408,162
how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
8wljfe4v7o6
null
12,811.771303
NO
yetpbiqwsp
lu8039lwp0n
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gddfj1dt9th", "label": "TychonNotos", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Chris Billington
clTFayGYeSB6LWc2AaIU
public
contract
1,717,685,439,565
has-taj-quantum-invented-a-roomtemp
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?
gddfj1dt9th
null
null
null
null
6eh0tjyxfhp
false
uHmFLsHcbuX34xdIXZTXowSjdMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l6oq7f2qwg", "label": "zQ4Z82W", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jordan Schneider
sohsVVUytgye5wvtzuHu
public
contract
1,717,685,536,563
will-congestion-pricing-in-nyc-be-e
JordanSchneider213c
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7enmCqVlZXCEEdVn02mjbzv9i9jsJgK8krzoKnqw=s96-c
Will Congestion Pricing in NYC be enforced by the end of 2024?
6mariz4pag
0.29
138.696368
YES
null
r52tlnam0zh
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Nat
4cZRK67eRwY3KIGZXDAZ
public
contract
1,717,685,696,134
will-a-mishap-investigation-be-requ
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will Starship Flight 4 result in an FAA mishap investigation?
null
null
null
null
null
kcifx1ccmc
false
bNaCDzi4STgSXOy5dOuOvhBxxoX2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bought down heavily because suit over hundreds of dollars vanishingly unlikely and contingent on suit plaintiff will not be bank but rather a debt buye...
Patrick McKenzie
54XjmXjs44d3vAQ1D4PW
public
contract
1,717,685,815,909
will-wells-fargo-sue-me
patio11
https://firebasestorage.…96f-ed42aa2f80fd
Will Wells Fargo sue me?
null
0.909915
3,411.604782
NO
null
ataos3c49r5
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1b5plsmvgjl", "label": "Hyperlincoln", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Campbell Hutcheson
UpfNoFH6Q6sU3HAZ2SzR
public
contract
1,717,685,845,804
will-scarlett-johansson-sue-openai
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will Scarlett Johansson sue OpenAI and/or Sam Altman personally in 2024?
p9hk89ec5y
null
null
null
null
0z898p0k227e
false
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What distinguishes a poker tournament from the poker games people have already been playing. Does it have to be over multiple sessions?", "ty...
niko
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,685,888,363
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
Nikos
https://firebasestorage.…a97-2c3621c2928b
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
313.736436
NO
f0bd0c063a95
t18kv5jf5if
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hmmmmmmmmm", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
pZ8xwkJMPBSmuoldj7YR
public
contract
1,717,685,986,269
will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-45c15ce48df3
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's fifth 'orbital' test flight?
null
0.200596
0
YES
null
cq6e94hlh4
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kcifx1ccmc", "label": "patio11", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Steve Sokolowski
54XjmXjs44d3vAQ1D4PW
public
contract
1,717,686,000,243
will-wells-fargo-sue-me
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Will Wells Fargo sue me?
kcifx1ccmc
null
null
null
null
1j2q4sxqvw
false
Kh8RxHF4w5Ove09idxV3XGMve3A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lu8039lwp0n", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Tychon Notos
clTFayGYeSB6LWc2AaIU
public
contract
1,717,686,032,836
has-taj-quantum-invented-a-roomtemp
TychonNotos
https://firebasestorage.…bea-63c085374a44
Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?
gddfj1dt9th
null
null
null
null
qmldgn7m3c
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This and Starship can resolve YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nat
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,686,163,499
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
513.768325
YES
5c6653a59f85
m0k06fp9b1i
false
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zocgswaeqz", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Josh Wilkes
pZ8xwkJMPBSmuoldj7YR
public
contract
1,717,686,180,111
will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-45c15ce48df3
JoshuaWilkes
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's fifth 'orbital' test flight?
zocgswaeqz
null
null
null
null
7u49vuuibyb
false
bNaCDzi4STgSXOy5dOuOvhBxxoX2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cq6e94hlh4", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Patrick McKenzie
54XjmXjs44d3vAQ1D4PW
public
contract
1,717,686,204,043
will-wells-fargo-sue-me
patio11
https://firebasestorage.…96f-ed42aa2f80fd
Will Wells Fargo sue me?
kcifx1ccmc
0.2
9,917.531467
NO
null
mfjy3u0r66b
false
ZfMgGcDtoqd55a67jVkQtaPKa3W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just to be clear our count is still at zero because there haven't been any full orbits or any full orbit attempts yet. But there's still plenty of time...
Dave H
Gt3wsyXp1ECaEQyllI7q
public
contract
1,717,686,230,100
will-starship-launch-to-orbit-at-le
DaveTrash
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIvjmI4g019mmVaupwrMYugN7vByGH85HB43dANx2g5=s96-c
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
mai8b6uf6ga
false
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For people and gestalt entities interested in future Tetra physical location relative to Japan, I've added a Japan option to this market", "t...
Tetra
WjmliBgkefuLkBvTNDX5
public
contract
1,717,686,239,150
what-cities-in-the-us-will-tetra-vi
Tetraspace
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
What cities in the US will Tetra visit in 2024?
null
null
1,762.373568
NO
hir3rxehdc