| [ |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "zodiac_single", |
| "case_id": "zodiac_1968", |
| "label": "Single lone offender", |
| "plausibility": 0.55, |
| "rationale": "Cipher-solver analyses suggest one author; identity never matched." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "zodiac_collaborator", |
| "case_id": "zodiac_1968", |
| "label": "Offender with accomplice", |
| "plausibility": 0.2, |
| "rationale": "Multiple simultaneous attacks would need a partner; unproven." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "jfk_lone_gunman", |
| "case_id": "jfk_1963", |
| "label": "Lone gunman (Oswald)", |
| "plausibility": 0.35, |
| "rationale": "Warren Commission conclusion; physics of the shots contested." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "jfk_second_gunman", |
| "case_id": "jfk_1963", |
| "label": "Second gunman conspiracy", |
| "plausibility": 0.55, |
| "rationale": "HSCA 'high probability of a second gunman'; records still declassifying." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "jfk_cover_up", |
| "case_id": "jfk_1963", |
| "label": "Official narrative cover-up", |
| "plausibility": 0.4, |
| "rationale": "Decades of declassification gaps sustain the theory; no direct proof." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "jonbenet_family", |
| "case_id": "jonbenet_1996", |
| "label": "Family member intruder", |
| "plausibility": 0.45, |
| "rationale": "Ransom-note oddities and evidence-handling failures; touch-DNA cleared family." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "jonbenet_intruder", |
| "case_id": "jonbenet_1996", |
| "label": "Unknown intruder", |
| "plausibility": 0.4, |
| "rationale": "Unmatched DNA sample remains unexplained; case officially open." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "mh370_pilot", |
| "case_id": "mh370_2014", |
| "label": "Pilot-directed diversion", |
| "plausibility": 0.45, |
| "rationale": "Zaharie's home simulator; controlled turn pattern; no proof." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "mh370_mechanical", |
| "case_id": "mh370_2014", |
| "label": "Catastrophic mechanical failure", |
| "plausibility": 0.3, |
| "rationale": "No distress call; the sharp turn argues against simple failure." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "sodder_abduction", |
| "case_id": "sodder_children_1945", |
| "label": "Children abducted, not burned", |
| "plausibility": 0.55, |
| "rationale": "No bones in the ashes; unmatched vertebra; decades of sighting leads." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "sodder_fire", |
| "case_id": "sodder_children_1945", |
| "label": "Consumed by the fire", |
| "plausibility": 0.3, |
| "rationale": "Fire intensity could destroy remains; the vertebra contradicts it." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "dyatlov_avalanche", |
| "case_id": "dyatlov_pass_1959", |
| "label": "Avalanche / snow slab", |
| "plausibility": 0.5, |
| "rationale": "2021 Russian re-investigation; critics note trauma and radiation unexplained." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "dyatlov_military", |
| "case_id": "dyatlov_pass_1959", |
| "label": "Military weapons test", |
| "plausibility": 0.25, |
| "rationale": "Radiation on clothing + area secrecy; no official evidence." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "lasvegas_lone", |
| "case_id": "las_vegas_2017", |
| "label": "Lone-wolf with no motive", |
| "plausibility": 0.6, |
| "rationale": "FBI found no manifesto, no links, no co-conspirators." |
| }, |
| { |
| "scenario_id": "lasvegas_unexplained", |
| "case_id": "las_vegas_2017", |
| "label": "Unknown motivating factor", |
| "plausibility": 0.4, |
| "rationale": "The largest unanswered question in modern American mass-crime." |
| } |
| ] |
