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Parties go to the centre because that is where the votes are. You are perfectly at liberty to vote for more minor parties. If you want nationalisation vote communist, clean energy vote green etc. Your vote may not elect a representative but the person who becomes your representative is likely to see which single issue parties received votes in his constituency and act accordingly. Ultimately only one party can govern at a time so it will never be the case that everyone can get their way on the issues they are interested in, but if you don’t vote no one will pay any attention at all. | |
Sanctions cannot be very finely targeted and will always hit other groups as well as the cyber attackers. The chances of knowing specific individuals who were responsible are next to zero so those individuals cannot be targeted directly. This is the whole problem with cyber-attacks; they are very difficult to pin down. In the best case then sanctions are applied against the right target and happen to hit others as well; for example hackers are not the only new who want advanced computer equipment. At worst the sanctions will completely miss their target; it would be a major embarrassment for a country to impose sanctions for a cyber-attack only for it to later be discovered that the sanctions are against an innocent party through whom the attack had been routed. | |
Sanctions can be targeted The big advantage of sanctions is that they can be as finely targeted as needed. If the sanctioning country only knows which country the cyber attack originated from then they can be broad brush sanctions, but if there is knowledge of which group initiated the attack then the sanctions can be more specific. For example in the case of unit 61398 Of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army that Mandiant showed has been attacking US companies [1] the United States could target sanctions at the People's Liberation Army by tightening weapons bans. Alternatively if the hackers are private then banning the import of certain computer equipment into that country would be appropriate. If individuals are known then the sanctions can be even more targeted, for example by freezing any bank accounts held outside their own country as the US did against North Korea when it sanctioned Banco Delta Asia through which North Korea laundered money from criminal activities. [2] [1] Mandiant, ‘Exposing One of China’s Cyber Espionage Units’, mandiant.com, February 2013, [2] Noland, Marcus, ‘Why Sanctions Can Hurt North Korea’, Council on Foreign Relations, 4 August 2010, | |
How can there ever be deterrence when the attacker believes they will not be caught, or that if they are the sanctions swill harm others not themselves? When the problem with preventing cyber-attacks is the difficulty of tracing the source [1] then deterrence becomes more and more difficult to apply. This is not like the Cold War where both superpowers could be certain that if they launched an attack there would be a devastating response. In this instance there is no certainly; the attacker believes they a, won't be caught, b, there will be no response and c, that the response won't affect them, and finally even if they are affected unless they are caught most times they will believe they will get away with it next time round. [1] Greenemeier, Larry, ‘Seeking Address: Why Cyber Attacks Are So Difficult to Trace Back to Hackers’, Scientific American, 11 June 2011, | |
Sanctions are a proportionate response Cyber-attacks pose a distinct problem for international diplomacy in that they are difficult to prevent and difficult to respond to. Any kind of military response as the United States has threatened would be completely disproportionate against all but the very biggest of cyber-attacks (those that actually result in deaths), [1] diplomacy on the other hand is as good as no response, if the response is simply a tongue lashing then the benefits of cyber espionage will be far higher than the cost. The only proportionate, and therefore just, response to a cyber-attack is sanctions. The sanctions can be used to impose a similar economic cost on the offending state as that caused by the cyber-attack. This would be just like the World Trade Organisation's dispute settlement rules. They allow for the imposition of trade sanctions to a similar value to the losses being experienced as a result of protectionist action, with the sanctions sometimes on differing sectors to those where there are unfair trade practices. [2] Alternatively sanctions could mean a proportionate Internet response; users from the offending nation could be prohibited from using Internet services, for example an attack by hackers on the US could result in people from that country being blocked from Google and other US internet services. [1] Friedman, Benjamin H., Preble, Christopher A., ‘A Military Response to Cyberattacks Is Preposterous’, CATO Institute, 2 June 2011, [2] World Trade Organisation, ‘Understanding the WTO: Settling Disputes’, 2013, | |
How do we determine what is proportionate? If some valuable intellectual property, such as part of the designs for the US's latest fighter jet the F35, which were hacked in 2009. [1] Then what can be the response to this? Can it simply be the cost of developing this design? If so then what about the strategic loss the state has suffered, how can that be calculated in? So long as it is excluded state sanctioned cyber-attacks will not be deterred. [1] Gorman, Siobhan, Cole, August, and Dreazen, Yochi, ‘Computer Spies Breach Fighter-Jen Project’, The Wall Street Journal, 21 April 2009, | |
An asymmetric response to cyber-attacks in the form of sanctions may prevent escalation, but they could also simply encourage a cyber-attacker to do more knowing that sanctions cannot stop cyber-attacks. Sanctions in the past have rarely changed policy; Sanctions against Cuba did not result in overthrowing Castro, sanctions have not changed North Korea or Iran’s policy towards nuclear weapons, so there is little reason that sanctions would stop cyber-attacks. [1] Instead the country being sanctioned will find a way around and quite possibly escalate themselves much as North Korea has upped the stakes whenever new sanctions are imposed, most recently by cancelling a hotline to the South. [2] [1] Friedman, Lara, ‘Getting over the sanctions delusion’, Foreign Policy The Middle East Channel, 14 March 2010, [2] Branigan, Tania, ‘Expanded UN sanctions on North Korea prompt rage from Pyongyang’, guardian.co.uk, 8 March 2013, | |
There needs to be action to deter more cyber attacks At the moment the response to cyber-attacks has essentially been nothing. It is however clear that some response is needed as without a reaction there is no deterrence; the attacks will keep coming until something is done. The number of cyber-attacks and the sensitivity of the information stolen have been increasing over recent years and as more and more work is done online and more and more systems are connected to the Internet so cyber-attacks become more attractive. There needs to be a deterrent and the best deterrent is to make sure that such attacks are costly. As these attacks are usually cross border (and in this debate we are only concerned with cross border attacks) then the only way to create a cost is through sanctions. These sanctions can either hit the assailant directly or else hit his government so encouraging them to crack down on hacking emanating from their country. It should be remembered that China argues that it does not launch cyber-attacks [1] meaning that any such attacks from China must duly be private. If this is the case then sanctions are the best way of prompting internal law enforcement. Sanctions therefore encourage all nations where there are cyber criminals to make sure they take such cyber-crime seriously. If they do not get their own cyber criminals under control then they may be affected by sanctions. [1] China Daily, ‘China denies launching cyberattacks on US’, China.org.cn, 20 February 2013, | |
Sanctions will prevent escalation in cyber conflict Cyber conflict favours the offence; when the defender is successful they gain nothing and impose no harm on the attacker who is free to try again elsewhere. The attackers are free to attack until they get past the defences somewhere. [1] That the attacks don’t risk lives helps to encourage an offensive mindset as makes it seem like there is no downside to attempting to dominate your opponent. [2] This means the only cyber response is to attack the attacker so that the same advantages apply. The result is that cyber-attacks have a very real danger of long term tension or escalation. If one side is losing a conflict where both sides are attempting to steal the other's intellectual property (or the other has little to steal) the response may be something like the stuxnet attack that involves physical damage, this then would probably be considered an illegal use of force creating a thin line between a cyber-war and a real war. [3] When the cyber war involves physical damage as the US has warned there then may be a military response. Sanctions are a way to apply pressure without this risk of escalation into a military conflict. [1] Lin, Herbert, ‘Escalation Dynamics and Conflict Termination in Cyberspace’, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Fall 2012, p.51 [2] Rothkopf, David, ‘The Cool War’, Foreign Policy, 20 February 2013, [3] Zetter, Kim, ‘Legal Experts: Stuxnet Attack on Iran Was Illegal ‘Act of Force’, Wired, 25 March 2013, | |
Cooperation is not a helpful alternative as it really means status quo when we can see that the status quo is not going to reduce cyber-attacks or bring recompense. Rather this is precisely what sanctions are needed for; to encourage states that harbour cyber criminals and hackers to use their law enforcement capabilities to crack down on such attacks. | |
This will clearly depend on the country engaging sanctions; sanctions from the US or EU will be much more significant than sanctions from the Philippines. Most countries however are a part of larger trade blocks; sanctions from the Philippines may not be much of a threat but sanctions from ASEAN would be much more compelling. Using such regional organisations can help nations get around the problems of agreement associated with broader UN sanctions. There have already been calls for groups such as ASEAN to work together against cyber attacks [1] and these groupings could be expanded to include other nations that agree with the policy on an ad hoc basis in much the same way as Japan is looking to join with ASEAN on such defence. [2] [1] Minnick, Wendell, ‘Malaysia Calls for ASEAN ‘Master Plan’ to Fight Cyber Attacks’, Defense News, 3 June 2012, [2] Westlake, Adam, ‘Japan pushes to form cyber-defense network with other ASEAN countries’, Japan Daily Press, 8 October 2012, | |
Sanctions are indiscriminate The problem with sanctions is that they are almost always indiscriminate; Iran’s sanctions today are an example where the international community’s concerns are entirely with the government, over nuclear weapons, not the people yet the result has been a doubling in the price of staple foodstuffs and rapidly rising unemployment. [1] This will equally be the case here. While sanctioners will try to target the sanctions the fact is there is nothing to target with sanctions that would not affect everyday lives. Hackers are ordinary people so clearly sanctions will affect others like themselves. The most obvious reactions involve the internet but blocking access to internet services, or penalising ISP’s, or cutting off technology transfers, harm everyone else as much as hackers. Often this harm is in the form of simply making the internet less safe for people in that country because they will have to turn to pirated versions of software. IDC and Microsoft estimate the chances of being infected with malware when using pirated software at one in three [2] so it is no surprise that the Chinese government in October 2012 launched a campaign to have government and companies purchase legal software. [3] [1] The Economist, ‘A red line and a reeling rial’, 6 October 2012, [2] IDC, ‘White Paper: The Dangerous World of Counterfeit and Pirated Software’, Microsoft, March 2013, p.3 [3] Xinhua, ‘Chinese gov’t says no to pirated software’, People’s Daily Online, 26 April 2013, | |
Sanctions won't harm the hackers Sanctions are typically used as a response to the actions of another state, not the actions of a private actor. Much cyber espionage is not carried out by government entities such as the army or intelligence services. It is also not encouraged by government regulation. Rather it is carried out by private actors whether this is criminal organisations or businesses seeking to undermine their rivals and learn their secrets this is usually with a financial motive (75% of data breaches) [1] , or else by individuals motivated by nationalism and patriotism to attack those they see as their nation’s enemies. It is difficult to see how sanctions against the nation as a whole affect these groups and individuals. This is certainly the case in China where many such as the ‘China Eagle Union’ admit to hacking for nationalist reasons rather than being told by the government. [2] A response such as sanctions are simply likely to breed more resentment that the other power is attempting to bully their nation. The hackers only possible response is then more hacking. For those sponsored by companies if their company is hit by sanctions it simply becomes all the more necessary to find methods of getting ahead to offset any harm by sanctions. [1] Verizon RISK Team, ‘2013 Data Breach Investigations Report’, Verizon, 23 April 2013, p.6 [2] Beech, Hannah, ‘China’s Red Hackers: The Tale of One Patriotic Cyberwarrior’, Time, 21 February 2013, | |
Sanctions won't work The problem with sanctions is that they almost never work so all they do is provide punishment and damage relations without ever resolving the issue. Numerous studies have shown that sanctions don’t actually change the policy of the country that is being sanctioned. [1] Robert Pape suggests that sanctions are only effective in achieving policy change about 5% of the time because states can take substantial economic punishment before they give up on anything that might be considered to be a national interest, and because states are good at shifting the burden of the sanctions onto opposition groups, [2] or else use the sanctions to rally domestic support against the outside actor. [3] Instead there need to be renewed cooperation on cyber security. Fundamentally as with things like drug smuggling, and people trafficking this is an international problem that needs to be tackled by law enforcement authorities. To that end there needs to be more cooperation not more recriminations. [4] [1] Lindsay, James M., ‘Trade Sanctions As Policy Instruments: A Re-Examination’, International Studies Quarterly, Vol.30, Issue 2, June 1986, pp.153-170, , p.1 provides a list of some of them [2] Pape, Robert A., ‘Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work’, International Security, Vol. 22, Issue 2, Autumn 1997, pp.90-137, p.106 [3] Snyder, Jack, Myths of Empire, Cornell University Press, 1991 [4] Dingli, Shen, ‘What Kerry Should Tell China’, Foreign Policy, 11 April 2013, | |
Sanctions require international agreement to be effective When is it legitimate to use sanctions in response to an action? Any individual state (or group of states) can use sanctions against any other state. However for these sanctions to be effective they need to have broad based support. Sanctions by an individual country are unlikely to change the behaviour of an aggressor as they will be able to get around the sanctions. Moreover for any country that is a member of the WTO imposing sanctions may be considered illegal allowing the other country to counter them with similar measures. The problem then is that there is no international response to hacking and it is unlikely there will be agreement on such a response. When countries like China deny that hacking comes from them are they likely to support the use of sanctions against such actions? Sanctions for much worse actions are often bogged down when they are attempted at the international level such as China and Russia vetoing sanctions against Syria in response to the violence there. [1] [1] United Nations Security Council, ‘Security Council fails to adopt draft resolution on Syria that would have threatened sanctions, due to negative votes of China, Russian Federation’, un.org, SC/10714, 19 July 2012, | |
Even taking it at face value that most of these hackers are independent actors not a part of a state policy there would still be solid reasoning behind sanctions. That most cyber-attacks have a financial motive implies that sanctions are the best response; as it is hitting them in an area that the attackers are clearly interested in. As for those who are attacking for ‘patriotic’ reasons if they are truly patriots they will stop when they see their efforts are really harming their country not helping it. | |
The aim of sanctions does not have to be to directly affect the individuals doing the hacking, though in some cases this may be possible. Rather the aim is to change the attitude towards regulation and enforcement by the central government and possibly by the people as a whole. If the people of a country believe they are suffering as a result of the hackers in their midst they will be much more likely to demand their government make cracking down on such activities a priority. | |
The current leadership of the party have strong conservative credentials and stand in stark contrast to the increasingly unpopular Obama who has been deserted by his own party and certainly the enthusiastic youthful idealists who elected him. It’;s perhaps a sign of the lack of both political and intellectual leadership within the Democratic Party that the Iowa Caucus saw many of those same young enthusiasts who supported Obama switch dramatically to Ron Paul in pursuit of a consistent ideology. The consistency of the Republican Party in making the argument for lower taxes and smaller government stands in stark contrast to the ever shifting sands of the Democrats. | |
Just as with other parties around the world, once the dominant argument of a political party proves to be a busted flush it takes about a decade to recover Both the Labour and Conservative parties in the UK, the Conservatives in Canada, the Socialists in France and many others all over the world have gone through periods of regrouping following extended periods in office. Political movements simply run out of fresh ideas after prolonged periods of government and the Republican Party is going through such a period. The Bush Mantra of a presumption in favour of financial deregulation and in favour of tax cuts to create a trickle-down effect have both been proven to be wrong – or at least were taken to too great an extreme. The country needs to rebalance just as the Republicans need to find new ideas and new standard bearers. Future leaders of the party like Marco Rubio and Tim Pawlenty may have interesting ideas by 2016 but the current leadership is a busted flush [i] . [i] 2016 Election.com | |
The Tea Party represents not only a community that has been largely ignored in recent elections but one that is also the mainstay of both the Republican Party and of the American Heartland. Namely, white, working class Americans, whose views and interests have been swept away by a party and national establishment that thought their votes could be taken for granted. While both parties sort out the votes and support of big companies, organised labour, and minority voting blocs the average American was taken for granted. The current approach of the Republican leadership has corrected that directly as a result of the Tea Partiers, returning the party to its traditional values and core voters. | |
The leadership of the Republican Party simply has nothing to do with its membership as a result no candidate has, or can, capture the imagination. It’s difficult for a predominantly working class party to get all that excited about the choice between a range of millionaires. The Bush presidency made it all too clear that the interests of the rich are the primary interest of the party and that it fails to deliver on areas such as a commitment to smaller government. As party activists becomes ever more obsessed with issues such as gay marriage or the flag-burning amendment, it simply fails to address the concerns of most Americans to whom it has little to say. Until it has a clearer and reasonable economic message, there is little it has to say and less worth listening to | |
Like all parties in a democracy the leadership of the party responds to the concerns of members. Millions of ordinary Americans have genuine concerns about the state of modern America particularly in relation to the encroachment of every day government into their lives and values and imposing the opinions of a small coastal elite onto communities that want nothing to do with them. The Republican Party increasingly reflects the historical background of the country as well as a position that reflects the belief of most Americans; historically and culturally Christian and mistrustful of an over-mighty state. Although there are nuances between presidential candidates, those statements would be supported by all of them and they appear divided because they are in the middle of a primary campaign. | |
The Republican Party has been hijacked by the Tea Partiers who simply don’t have a coherent message or ideology The Tea Party movement has hijacked the Republican Party, bullying elected representatives to pursue a very narrow political agenda that has more to do with their moral outlook than the traditional role of politics. The Tea Party has little in the way of a political programme and nothing in the way of understanding the nuances of local politics or the realities of electoral politics. While the party remains in thrall to this vociferous but unrepresentative minority, it has little to offer the wider party and les to offer the wider American public. Although they are strident in terms of what they are against, they have little to offer by way of a substantive contribution to the national debate. | |
The Republicans are simply left with nothing to say and nowhere to go. As is traditionally the case for politicval parties following a long period of dominance they tend to degenerate into internecine squabbling while they thrash out a new platform for government; one thing that is clear is that they haven’t found it yet. The approach they are taking both in terms of fighting their battles in public and demanding a certain orthodoxy of their candidates that is, frankly, unelectable suggests that they need at least another four years to work through their ideas. The media are not bringing some liberal bias to this they are even masking many of the divisions. However, the reality is the party is divided and, more astonishingly, those division take place within an incredibly narrow ideological spectrum. | |
It is simply untrue to present the Republicans as the party of small government. The two presidents under whom the size of government grew the fastest - both in terms of personnel and expenditure – were Reagan and Bush Jr. When Republicans says they are interested in small government they simply mean that they want it to be small enough to get under the bedroom door; making it more interventionist not less. They have been reduced to a fringe organisation obsessed with a handful of issues, endlessly mouthed as soundbites to prove their orthodoxy to the most extreme wing of their party which does nothing to endear them to a largely uninterested electorate. In an age of economic austerity, the party simply has nothing meaningful to say on this, the most crucial, matter of the day. | |
All parties represent a range of opinions and coalesce around and promote their core values and the Republican debate is simply an example of that Although there are nuances of belief and differences of approach within the Republican Party, as there are in all political parties, they continue to promote the core values that define the party and the wider movement. As the primary process demonstrated the is diversity of belief within the party and a healthy sense of debate and that is to be welcomed. However, the values that the party represents – God, family and patriotism – remain their values of the party’s leadership and the American people | |
The Republican Party is, yet again, suffering from the inability of the mainstream and liberal media to accurately cover political debate they constantly wish to portray healthy discourse as split and schism It would be deeply unhealthy if there were not a lively discourse in any political movement but the media fails to reflect that fact. Disillusionment with Obama has been growing almost since day one of his presidency and looks set to continue through the rest of 2012, the Republicans, by contrast have a clear message with growing support at all levels. The very fact that they have been so successful in thwarting the more dangerous of Obama’s policies demonstrate that they have both the arguments and the acumen to defeat him in Congress, just as they do for the presidency. | |
Having won the economic argument during the Reagan years – both with Russia and the Democratic Party – the Republicans now address social concerns and do so with a consistent message. Having won the argument over the primacy of the Free Market under Reagan, modern Republicans have turned their attention to other concerns, primarily surrounding the size and role of the federal governments and the social attitudes that are acceptable for the nation to adopt as a whole. Although the liberal media may grow weary of the message that the majority of Americans hold certain values and expect those to be respected by the government, it remains the case. The Republican Party has, and continues to be, the strongest and most consistent voice on these matters; defending traditional families and their values. | |
The Republicans have been highjacked by the extreme right of their party, making them virtually unelectable. In any other circumstance Obama should be looking like a sitting duck, with the disarray in the Republican party, it seems unlikely that they will be able to coalesce in any meaningful way around any candidate. The constant acts of regicide against the only credible candidate they have, Mitt Romney, suggests that he simply won’t have the support he needs come the general election. The very fact that he is unpopular with the party because he doesn’t confirm to an extreme of ideological purity is the very thing that makes him electable. Until Republicans recognise that electoral reality, they are doomed. | |
Most developed nations are representative democracies, in which we elect people to represent us and make decisions on our behalf. We retain the ultimate control over these representatives at the ballot box, and if we disagree with the decisions they have made we can vote for different candidates at the next election. Just because we can consult the public more easily nowadays, that is no reason to destroy a system that has generally served us well for decades and, in some cases, centuries. Furthermore, electronic voting is still in its infancy, and liable to fraud and technical problems. [1] [1] ”E-Voting Rights”, Electronic Frontier Foundation. | |
Modern technology makes consultation easier than ever. In the past, it was impractical to organise frequent referendums due to the difficulty and expense of holding them. But with the advent of the internet and mass media, it is now easier than ever to consult the public on issues of concern to them. For example, Switzerland regularly holds referendums on all sorts of issues in an efficient manner which commands widespread public support. [1] [1] Gerlach, Jan; Gasser, Urs. “Three Case Studies from Switzerland: E-Voting”, Internet and Democracy Case Study Series, March 2009. | |
Referendums can lend greater validity to political outcomes Particularly on contentious or controversial issues. Laws passed by public approval in this way will be less open to challenge, with all sides having to accept the will of the electorate. This is especially true of minority or coalition governments who may face accusations that they do not have a mandate for certain policies, [1] or situations where minority groups are exercising their right to self-determination. [2] [1] May, Colin. “Canada’s Questionable ‘Coalition’”. C2C Canada Journal of Ideas. 22nd June 2009. [2] Tierney, Stephen. “Referendums today: Self-determination as constituent power?”. European Journal of International Law blog, February 9th 2011. | |
Most people are apathetic about politics because they find it dull or do not believe that it affects them. This may be regrettable but it is hard to see how increasing the number of votes they are asked to participate in will have a positive effect on this trend. On the contrary, many of those who do not like politics will quickly become even more bored and irritated if they are constantly bombarded with campaign literature, television adverts and activists ringing on their doorbells. | |
Improves standards in political governance. The trend in developed countries tends to be towards greater centralisation, and concentration of power in the hands of a small number of representatives. This, in turn, leads to the creation of a separate political class who will in some cases be more concerned with their own influence and enrichment than that of the voters, and makes it possible for wealthy individuals or companies to lobby politicians for laws favourable to their interests. Increased use of referendums would potentially reduce the influence of lobby groups and corporate donors on the political system. [1] [1] Knutsen, John. “Blueprint for a new European Confederation”, Basiclaw.net, January 2004. | |
Redresses imbalance between state and individual. Governments exist to serve the will of the people, not the other way round; politicians take their instructions from their constituents, or should do. But in the modern state this relationship is often inverted. By obliging our democratic institutions to take genuine account of public opinion, and returning real political power back to those to whom it rightly belongs – the people – we can put the relationship between the individual and the state back on a healthier footing. In principle, people should have the right to decide for themselves on matters of importance to their lives. [1] [1] . Beedham, Brian: “Power to the people: The case for Direct Democracy”, Civitas Review. Vol.3 Issue 2, June 2006. | |
The public already has an effective veto on legislation, and retains the ultimate power over a politician’s career through its vote at general elections. When governments break their promises, or govern contrary to the preferences of their voters, they are punished by being ejected from office at the subsequent election. This is already an effective way to ensure that public opinion is never ignored for long. | |
Increased use of referendums is unlikely to make much difference to the quality of governance. Governments and state commissions will retain most of their power, as only a small proportion of laws will be put before the public vote even if use of referendums is increased. It will certainly make no difference to the level of corruption. As for corporate lobbyists, it can be argued that increased use of referendums will actually increase the influence of such groups. (See Opposition argument five, below.) | |
Major constitutional changes such as the secession of South Sudan may well be appropriate for referendums, but using them to improve the democratic legitimacy of a government is misguided. Many policies touch on issues of human rights and the simple fact that a majority votes in favour of a particular policy will not be enough to convince opponents that the resulting law is fair or just. | |
If none of the parties support a policy it is probably because it has no significant support among the people! Much of modern politics is reactive; policies are tested by focus groups and carefully crafted to appeal to as many potential voters as possible. People may tell pollsters that they favour a particular policy (such as the reinstatement of the death penalty in the example from the Proposition side), but that does not necessarily mean that there is a grounds well of support for changing the law. | |
Reduces public apathy about, and disengagement from, politics. People are apathetic about politics because they only get to vote once every few years. Even then it is not directly for policies but for competing political parties who promise to implement them (but often reverse position when in office). They feel that politicians do not listen to them between elections, and disengagement with the political process grows and grows. More frequent referendums would stimulate interest in politics because people would actually get a say in decisions. For example, evidence from the US shows that states with frequent use of ballot initiatives tend to have higher voter participation in elections. [1] [1] Tolbert, Caroline; Grummel, John; Smith, Daniel. “The Effect of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout in the American States”. American Politics Research Vol. 29 No. 6, November 2001. | |
Ensures that all views are represented in political debate. Many countries have two or three party systems in which there is no spread of opinion between these parties. The parties reflect sterile mainstream consensus and do not offer voters what they really want. Consequently, large sectors of the public find their views unrepresented. Referendums will remedy this and increase engagement with the political system, because people will know that their views simply cannot be ignored. For example, a majority in the UK favour the return of the death penalty, but no party among the main three offers this. [1] Whatever your views on this issues, it seems unfair that there is simply no way for voters’ views to be represented. [1] Cafe, Rebecca. “Does the public want the death penalty brought back?”. BBC News, 4th August 2011. | |
People are bored with politics because they think that it is irrelevant to them and that politicians are not interested in their opinions. Increasing the use of referendums is an excellent way of increasing engagement with the general public; it forces the political establishment to listen to popular opinion, and gives ordinary people a much greater say in how their country is run. See Proposition argument 3, above. | |
It is true that a responsible government should draft legislation with a view to its long term benefits. However, many governments do not do this; programmes are often set up, laws changed or taxes cut with a view to short term electoral benefit and narrow party political gain, not the good of the country. Arguably, the electorate are more likely to vote on issues for the “right” reasons than are their elected representatives. Saying that government should lead public opinion, rather than follow it, is simply another way of saying that the state should ignore the will of the public. It is hard to see how it can be justified for governments to pass laws which they know do not command public support. Clearly there may be exceptions in extreme situations - such as the abolition of slavery in the 19th century – but, broadly speaking, the citizens of a country should have the right to order their society in the way they think is best. | |
Public opinion is changeable Unless there is a minimum threshold for valid votes, freak results will occur. If the threshold is too high, on the other hand, then public aspirations may be thwarted, as for example with the Scottish Home Rule referendum of 1979, where a majority of those who voted supported devolution but not enough to get the proposal passed into law. [1] Furthermore, public opinion changes over time. Once you have introduced the principle that issues of national concern are to be settled by referendums, there will be nothing to stop the same question being put to the public vote time after time. [1] “The path to devolution”, Scottish Parliament history pages. | |
Referendums are very artificial. The results are often strongly influenced by factors unrelated to the proposal on the ballot, such as; the timing of the referendum (controlled by the government); the point in the electoral cycle; media coverage of the issues, which may be biased or irresponsible; and the amount of money spent on advertising by each side. For example, in the 2005 referendum held by France on the European Union Constitution, the Yes lobby was supported by the majority of the political establishment and almost all the media, and outspent the No campaign by a significant margin. Opponents argued that the referendum was not conducted on a level playing field. [1] [1] Wyatt, Caroline. “French media in referendum ‘bias’ row”. BBC News, 21st May 2005. | |
People are currently bored with politics. The last thing they want is more votes. This will only lead to greater overall apathy and even lower turnout in general elections. California is a classic example of frequent referendums failing to ignite any noticeable interest among its people. The 2011 referendum on electoral reform in the UK was similarly ignored by the public. [1] [1] Davies, Caroline. “Apathy and anger dominate as AV decision looms”. The Guardian, 15th April 2011. | |
The job of a government is necessarily long term. It is right that once the people have given it a mandate it should be able to carry out legislation with long term aims. Often good legislation is unpopular at first, but effective and popular in the long run. Such legislation would never survive a referendum. It is only fair that the government is given a chance to see if its legislation does indeed work. The people can then vote the government out of office if it fails. Similarly, it is government’s job to lead and not to follow, especially on social legislation. For example, the US civil rights movement in the 1960s, and the equal marriage movement currently, might not command majority support from the public as a whole; [1] in order to advance equal rights, responsible government has to get out in front of public opinion, and make the argument for policies which are not yet popular enough to be passed in a referendum. This approach is justified because parliamentarians are representatives not delegates (as famously pointed out by Burke to the electors of Bristol in 1776) [2] and can do what they think is best for the people even if that does not meet the people’s wishes. [1] Bobo, Lawrence. “Attitudes toward the Black Political Movement”. Social Psychology Quarterly, Vol. 51 No.4, 1988. [2] Burke, Edmund. “Speech to the electors of Bristol”. 3rd November 1774. | |
It is perfectly possible to construct a model for increased use of referendums which reduces to a minimum the distorting factors cited by the Opposition. For example, the timing, wording and conduct of the polls could be overseen by an independent commission. Rules could also be implemented to restrict spending by both sides to fair levels. Media, too, are bound by law in many countries to provide equal coverage to both sides. [1] [1] “A comparative look at referendum laws”, Institute for International Law and Human Rights, February 2009. | |
It is possible to avoid freakish results by only allowing a referendum to be valid if a certain percentage of the population votes, say 30%. Or indeed by implementing a threshold for setting up a referendum in the first place. There is no reason to think it would be hard to find a formula that avoids these sorts of problems. It may be formally true that the same referendum question could be put to the public again and again, but the same can be said of any political question in the status quo. Once a referendum has been held on an issue, politicians are unlikely to risk the wrath of the electorate by making them vote on the same question repeatedly. | |
A directly elected upper house obfuscates the political process. An upper house has a different role in the political process than the lower house: the lower house has to channel public opinion whereas the upper house has to provide critical scrutiny and sober second thought. Its legitimacy therefore doesn't stem from backing in public opinion but from careful reflection and well thought-out arguments. | |
A directly elected upper house is more effective When an upper house is directly elected, it will be perceived to be more legitimate by the public, because the public sees their political views directly translated into a legislative branch, albeit in a different way than the lower house. This enhanced legitimacy will help the upper house in performing their constitutional duties: whenever the upper house disagrees with either the lower house or the executive, the upper house can now strengthen their position by pointing to the public support it has. | |
Appointers and electors have to think about their reputation more. Unethically and unprofessionally behaved members of the upper house can still be sent away, either by the politicians who appointed or elected them or by independent inquiry. An example of this is of a Senator in the Netherlands, Sam Pormes. After an opinion magazine revealed he once aided freedom fighters in an assault on the Dutch government, he was sent away after careful inquiry. [1] [1] Expatica, ‘Senator told to resign over 'guerrilla training''. 22 November 2005. last consulted August 15, 2011. | |
A directly elected upper house is more democratic Democracy means self-governance by the people, wherein citizens have the fundamental right to decide how they are to be governed and by whom. An appointed or indirectly elected upper house violates this principle, because allows a group of individuals to exercise power without having to explain or justify themselves to the public | |
Democracy isn't just 'direct elections'. Democracy is a means to ensure good governance. Stating that an appointed or indirectly elected upper house is 'undemocratic' is not enough. Instead, the proposition should show why an appointed or indirectly elected upper house hinders good governance. Moreover, given the fact that the upper house is either appointed by the directly elected executive, as in Canada, or elected by directly elected provincial legislatures, as in the Netherlands, the people still have the right to decide how they are governed, only indirectly. | |
A directly elected upper house discourages patronage Politicians who elect or appoint the members of the upper house have an incentive to put their friends an allies there, because this will make their decision making easier. This is patronage pure and simple: the public will have a hard time sending them away when, if ever, a scandal breaks because the members of the upper house don't depend on public opinion to remain in their seats. An example is the case of a senator in the Netherlands, Sam Pormes. After an opinion magazine revealed he once had partaken in terrorist activities, it took almost a year and several mediation attempts to get him removed from parliament. [1] [1] Expatica, ‘Senator told to resign over 'guerrilla training''. 22 November 2005. last consulted August 15, 2011. | |
Feedback in the legislative process reeks of cronyism. Ensuring policy is feasible by checking it with target groups and implementing partners is important. Governments often do this by calling for position papers and organizing focus groups. Using an upper house for this only reeks of cronyism: for example, why would the government award a seat to one big oil company but not to the other? | |
Sober second thought is undemocratic. A directly elected upper house can also provide an extra cycle in the legislative process if this is deemed desirable. When it comes to 'halting hypes', we need to realize that what constitutes a political hype is also a political choice. Democracy is defined as 'rule by the people'. If public pressure for a certain law is mounting, this means that apparently a large part of the public is urgently in favor of it. If democracy truly means 'rule by the people', then the legislative should respond to this kind of public pressure and not effectively hinder the rule of the people out of some misguided notion of 'political hype'. | |
An appointed or indirectly elected upper house provides more room to involve experts Appointment or indirect election provides space to involve eminent or expert people into politics. Often, expert and eminent people don't have the time or resources to work on building a career in politics. An example is veteran professional hockey coach Jacques Demers, who was appointed by Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper to become a Senator. Demers has been nearly illiterate for all his life but has been a very successful coach. As a Senator, Demers helped raise awareness and generate policy to enhance literacy across Canada. [1] [1] TSN, ‘FORMER NHL COACH DEMERS TO BE NAMED TO SENATE’. 27 August 2009. last consulted August 15, 2011. | |
An appointed or indirectly elected upper house helps policy implementation Appointment or indirect election provides space to involve leaders of business and civil society in politics. Just like above-mentioned experts, they often don't have time to build a career in politics. But they do have first-hand knowledge of the effects of policy on their businesses and associations. By co-opting them in the legislative process, policy makers don't have to wait until policy is fully implemented to receive feedback on the feasibility of their ideas. | |
An appointed or indirectly elected upper house provides 'sober second thought' An extra cycle in the legislative process creates more time to reflect on the pros and cons of each piece of legislation. Moreover, the lower house is pressured by public opinion to react fast to any kind of political hype that comes up. The upper house is more free from public pressure and can thus afford to halt pieces of 'hype-legislation'. | |
Expert opinion shouldn't play a role at the legislative stage of political decision making. Expertise is relevant for policy making, but doesn't have a place in the legislative. The legislative is a place for deliberation and negotiation amongst public interests. Expert opinion should inform policy making either via expert policy makers who work for ministries and departments and help draft legislation before it is launched, or via the public, whom they inform and persuade via articles, talk shows and publicizing research. | |
Labour can be bold without turning to the left. It could endorse bolder action on climate change, much greater local democracy, and increasing the use of new technologies. The concern should not be about a policy being left or right wing but about its beneficial (or otherwise) consequences. When labour has won in the past it has been by taking centerist trends and making them their own – for example Wilson’s ‘white fires of industry’. [1] [1] Skelton, David, ‘What does the Labour party do now?’, Demos Quarterly, 31 July 2015, | |
Presents a bold new path Since the start of the 1990s Labour has moved to the right to contest the ‘centre ground’ of politics. This worked in 1997 when the Conservatives were a spent force after 17 Years in power. Tony Blair successfully stole the conservatives moderate policies. However this has resulted in the centre ground moving to the right with policies such as austerity and welfare cuts becoming a consensus. Labour needs to move left to fight on their own ground forcing other parties to match their more populist policies such as renationalising the railways. | |
It is false that there is a lack of choice now. There are plenty of other parties that voters could vote for if they believe the main two parties do not provide them with the choice they want. On the right there is UKIP and on the left the Greens and also other much smaller more extreme parties standing pain a few constituencies. If there were sufficient numbers who want to vote for a more left wing agenda then the Greens would be doing much better than they are – they currently only have one seat. | |
Brings labour back to its core values The original values of the Labour party were “the common ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange” and even today the Labour party aims to “serve the public interest” as well as to create “a just society, which judges its strength by the condition of the weak as much as the strong”, “an open democracy, in which government is held to account by the people”, and “a healthy environment”. [1] In the last parliament Labour supported there being a cap on welfare spending. [2] More recently Labour abstained on a Conservative welfare bill that many felt was too harsh in its cuts. [3] Corbyn, and a move to the left, will bring Labour back to its core values rather than supporting Conservative policies and austerity that harms individuals. [1] Clause IV, Labourcounts, , accessed 15 September 2015 [2] Wintour, Patrick, ‘Miliband: Labour not abandoning its values with cap on welfare spending’, The Guardian, 6 June 2013, [3] Eaton, George, ‘Welfare bill passed as 48 Labour MPs defy leadership and vote against’, The Spectator, 20 July 2015, | |
Old values are just out of date values. There is little point in Labour appealing to the working class as the party they are supposed to represent when those same people have been abandoning it for decades; in 1966 69% of manual workers voted labour, this was only 45% by 1987 [1] – long before Labour dropped its left wing ideology. Going back to core values if those core values are the values that the electorate wants. [1] O’Neill, Brendan, ‘Labour lost the working-class vote a long time ago’, The Spectator, 12 May 2015, | |
“I'm fed up with the Punch and Judy politics of Westminster, the name calling, backbiting, point scoring, finger pointing.” Not Jeremy Corbyn, David Cameron in 2005 when he became opposition leader. [1] Every new opposition party leader starts out saying they want to change Westminster’s style of politics; Miliband was the same. Yet they get sucked in all the same. The robust Punch and Judy style is part and parcel of British politics having happened during periods where the parties were ideologically far apart in the past; there were comnplaints about jeering and interuptions in the 1970s. [2] [1] Cameron, David, ‘Leadership acceptance speech, BritishPoliticalSpeech.org, 2005, [2] Parkinson, Justin, ‘Is Prime Minister’s Questions really getting worse?’, BBC News, 18 February 2014, | |
Provides greater choice Corbyn in his last campaign rally argued “fundamentally many people are turned off by a political process when the major parties are not saying anything different enough about how we run the economy”. [1] This lack of choice has been a complaint by voters for years – ever since Tony Blair made New Labour electable by moving to the centre. Jeremy Corbyn now gives the electorate a real choice compared to the Conservative party; tackling the deficit through tax rises (rather than cutting spending, nationalising the railways, peoples Quantitaive Easing, don’t replace trident, and rent controls. [2] [1] Wintor, Patrick, ‘Corbyn: it’s time for a new kind of politics’, The Guardian, 12 September 2015 [2] Magazine, ’24 things that Jeremy Corbyn believes’, BBC News, 13 September 2015, | |
Lack of difference encourages Punch and Judy politics The public “are totally turned off by a style of politics which seems to rely on the levels of club house theatrical abuse that you can throw across at each other in parliament and across the airwaves.” [1] This style is necessary to extentuate the small areas where there are differences between the parties. Introduce real differences on the big issues of government, particularly the economy and society, then such minor point scoring fades into insignificance. [1] Wintor, Patrick, ‘Corbyn: it’s time for a new kind of politics’, The Guardian, 12 September 2015 | |
Corbyn is not tied to the past and his agenda is not going to simply be a rehash of Michael Foot’s manifesto in 1983. The policies Corbyn is advocating now would not have been considered particularly left wing in 1983 and most are not particularly radical even now. Policies like rent controls, peoples’ QE, and renationalising the railways may be statist but are potentially popular solutions to issues that concern voters; the cost of housing, that QE benefited the banks and no one else, and that commuting is cramped and costly. | |
The biggest news of the last few years in politics has been the fragmentation of the electorate; the increase in voting for the Scottish National Party, Greens, and UK Independence Party. It can no longer be certain that Labour will pick up most votes by staying close to the centre ground. In all but the very safest seats there are more non-voters than there are people who vote for the winning party. It was notable that many of the safest seats in the country, held by Labour in 2010, were toppled by the SNP in 2015 including Glasgow North East that had an almost 16,000 majority in 2010 fell to the SNP with a majority of over 7,000. [1] [1] Glasgow North East (UK Parliament constituency), Wikipedia, last checked 16 September 2015 | |
The Labour party is deprived of talent on the front bench Numerous former front benchers and government ministers under the last Labour government will not serve in a Corbyn shadow cabinet. Most obviously two of the four leadership contenders; Liz Kendall and Yvette Cooper. [1] This deprives the party of experienced parliamentarians who know government and what it takes to win elections. [1] Wintour, Patrick, and Watt, Nicholas, ‘Labour frontbenchers rule out serving in Corbyn’s shadow cabinet’, The Guardian, 12 September 2015, | |
Going left is step back not a step forward Labour has tried left wing politics in the past – in the 1980s – in what was described by Gerald Kaufman, himself in the shadow cabinet at the time, as “the longest suicide note in history”. [1] Going leftwards means moving back to these policies rather than carving out new progressive policies that can energise and excite. Why should Labour be backing coal rather than renewables? Should Labour not be looking to give more power to the people rather than brining it back to the state through nationalisation? [1] Clarck, Neil, ‘Not so suicidal after all’, The Guardian, 10 June 2008, | |
A shift to the left means labour is no longer a party of government A shift to the left means that Labour is no longer a real contender for government. This is not only bad for Labour but bad for the country as a whole. Voters need to have a choice between parties that stand a realistic chance of getting into power to have a real choice. By moving away from the centre where most of the votes are labour is no longer a serious contender. In the UK it is already the case that the average voter for a party holds more centrist, or moderate, policy positions than the party they vote for. [1] [1] Voters’ Policy Preferences Much More Centrist than those of Political Parties, Compass, June 2015, | |
Far from depriving the Labour Party of talent he has been drawing new talent into the party. Labour gained 15,000 members in the three days since Jeremy Corbyn’s victory on top of those who signed up during the leadership campaign. [1] Ultimately it is the membership and its size and diversity that provides the talent of the future, not an elite clique of individuals at the top. [1] Withnall, Adam, ‘More than 15,000 join Labour party as full members in wake of Jeremy Corbyn victory’, The Independent, 13 September 2015, | |
It is difficult to envision how this ban could be effectively implemented without compromising the principles of free speech and unfettered political discussion that lie at the core of western democratic liberalism. If side proposition pursue a broadly construed ban on negative tactics by candidates, campaign groups and the media, free and open debate is likely to be endangered. Democratic political parties are diverse and plural entities. Even the most authoritarian or charismatic candidate cannot hope to have complete control and oversight over every member of his campaign team. Under the widest interpretation of the resolution, a careless comment by an over-enthusiastic party activist could breach a negative campaigning ban as surely as an ad hominem attack advert. Indeed, such comments are much more likely to be made on the door step than they are in the press. This being the case, how would the activities of a candidate’s staff be policed? Would they be subject to constant surveillance? If so, by whom? How would the impartiality of regulators be guaranteed? Moreover, if a supervising body were given the wide ranging powers necessary to implement the resolution, how would the proposition prevent the leaking- accidental or otherwise- of confidential government and opposition information? The functions of the state are closely bound up with the activities of party politics, especially in federal nations such as America, which operate partisan civil administrations. Similarly, who should decide when an independent campaigning group is “too closely aligned” to the ideals and objectives of a particular political party? Within the American republican party there are a wide range of views on issues considered controversial by political conservatives. Former Republican VP Dick Cheney voiced support for same-sex marriage while in office. By contrast, 2012 republican presidential nomination candidates Herman Cain and Michelle Bachman have stated their opposition to reforms that would make same-sex marriage more accessible in the US. Does criticism levelled against Cheney by Christian “family” interest groups allow them to be defined as independent of the Republican party? Comparably, is praise for Cheney’s position by LGBTQ interest groups a reliable indicator that they support other republican policies? Clearly it does not. It should also be noted that a ban would be almost impossible to enforce on the internet. The multi-jurisdictional nature of much web content (videos or articles authored in one country may be hosted by services operating under the law of another) renders any attempt to control on-line political commentary meaningless. Short of adopting wide-scale, Chinese-style internet censorship systems, the growth of online attack campaigning [i] renders the proposition meaningless. Side proposition assume that the news media operate without directing any critical attention to the subject matter of their stories. They portray the press as vulnerable to subversion by campaign managers able to leak or cleverly position attack stories. Even if side proposition can provide examples of this type of misdirection, it would be damaging to tackle flawed editorial policies by using the law to limit journalists’ right to comment and speak freely on political events. Where there has been a failure of safeguards that ensure that objective coverage of significant events remains objective, regulatory bodies should review the standards of journalists work – as they currently do under the status quo. This would provide the press with the flexibility to continue reporting on important issues, while refining the way in which they do so. Even if the legal mandate is enforced by an impartial, neutral observer, appointments to this body are likely to become politically fraught, precisely because it would be the ultimate arbiter of the limits and rules that would be applied to an election. [i] “Dose of Venom for Candidates Turns Ads Viral”. New York Times, 20 March 2010. | |
Existing methods of disciplining and controlling candidates are ineffective. Many political parties- even those in operating in the US- claim that regulation of the content of political campaigns is unnecessary. Parties assert that they supervise and monitor the content of their candidates’ statements. Self-regulation is claimed to be in parties’ own interests. However, ensuring that individual candidates maintain good standards of conduct and are disciplined for infractions goes only half way to ensuring that campaigning remains honest and equitable. Articles written and speeches made by candidates can easily be surveiled and monitored for misleading or litigious content. However, the most damning and intractable forms of negative campaigning often occur indirectly, without being explicitly associated with a particular political figure. Due to the frequency with which candidates’ activists and survey staff make contact with voters, there is the danger that they could be used to propagate negative messages via word of mouth campaigns. Tactics of this type were successfully employed by the radical socialist George Galloway to oust a Labour incumbent in the UK constituency of Bethnal Green and Bough. Allegations later emerged that Galloway’s door-step campaigners had made ad hominem and racist comments against his opponent. It is unacceptable that a candidate should be able to maintain a “clean” image by using his electoral staff to make negative attacks by proxy. Independent lobbying and campaigning groups that claim no party affiliation make important contributions to debate and policy making throughout the liberal world. However, despite their “independent” status, many of these organisations are guided by issues and ideological and philosophical principles that are closely linked to party politics. Particular think-tanks or single issue groups may be ideologically aligned to certain parties, even if they are not part of that party’s internal structure. The pro-life lobby in the US, for example, is politically aligned with the republican party, due to a shared support base among American Christians. Similarly, although the British think-tank ResPublica describes itself as non-party-political, it propagates social research based on identifiably right wing ideas, and is guided by an advisory board containing four Conservative party MPs. Under these circumstances, it is unrealistic to assume that pronouncements made by these organisations are free from the influence of those directly involved in political campaigns. In America, where independent “527” [i] groups are banned from contacting and coordinating with political parties, it is not unusual for such organisations to fund ad hominem attacks against a candidate perceived as being unsympathetic to a particular cause. Indeed, this is exactly why a broad interpretation of this motion is necessary. Organisations such as Swift Boat Veterans for truth are able to mount attack campaigns that directly benefit a particular participant in an election, while not being bound by the restrictions on conduct, spending or donor relationships that candidates themselves must abide by. Finally, limiting negative campaigning in the press will address the incentives on politicians to pursue campaign strategies oriented solely around garnering publicity. One of the first examples of negative campaigning, a 1964 television advert produced by Harry Truman, which implied that presidential candidate Barry Goldwater would initiate a nuclear war, proved so controversial that it was replayed in news broadcasts, effectively granting additional, free campaign coverage. The press is already confronted with too many engineered leaks and scandals. As noted above, these obscure more cogent analysis by neutral experts and commentators. [i] Section 527, United Stated Internal Revenue Code. | |
Politics is a tough game, and those that decide to play it should expect to come away bruised. Politicians, almost by definition, seek publicity and the attention of the media. They should, therefore, be prepared to accept that positive press coverage will inevitably turn negative. Much as debaters are trained to continue delivering clear and structured speeches in the face of badgering POIs, indifferent judges and poorly behaved opponents, we should expect our politicians to be tough enough to give a robust defence of their policies and actions, no matter how pernicious the attacks launched against them. This is the only way in which we can be certain of their skills as a political operator and their commitment to the ideological cause they claim to support. Politicians with families are consistently perceived as more trustworthy and competent than those who lack familial ties. A family is a useful general indicator of a politician’s willingness to set aside personal ambition and self-interest, and invest himself wholly in ensuring the well-being of others. Likewise, a politician who welcomes attacks on his character and policies and fights vigorously to defend them is also more likely to have a clean past. Moreover, due to the organic and emergent nature of interactions that occur between states on the international stage, politicians will not have access to the types of legal protection proposed by the resolution when doing business with the representatives of other nations. Coddled politicians will lack the pragmatism and guile necessary to effectively represent western nations’ interests in the international community. | |
Negative campaigning creates voter apathy and prevents accurate reporting of candidates’ policies and ideologies. The contemporary political environment throughout much of the democratic world- and especially the USA- is mired in negative and aggressive campaigning. Tactics of this type breed apathy and anomie among groups within society who have previously been politically engaged. Politicians are increasingly portrayed as uniformly corrupt, incompetent or both. Research published by Stamford University in the late nineties has linked an overall decline in voter turnout (approximately 10% between 1960 and 1992) [i] and a further decline in voter roll-off (the likelihood that an individual will vote for a high office, but neglect to vote for state or federal legislative positions) to increased reliance on attack ads and negative campaigning among American politicians. The authors of the Stamford report identify several causative factors underlying this connection. Firstly, the study acknowledges that adverts attacking an individual’s credentials, policies or background are likely to reduce the number of voters who back a particular candidate. However, campaigns of this type do nothing to increase support for alternative candidates. The supporters of a politician undermined by negative campaigning are unlikely to switch to his or her opponent, preferring instead to abstain from the vote. Although party- or candidate- loyalty can be quickly disrupted, it takes a considerable amount of time for a party or politician to gain a voter’s trust [ii] . As proposition will show, negative campaigning tends to engender further negative campaigning, leading to the main contenders in an election forgoing the use of positive campaign media. In short, aggressive campaigning is effective in reducing the popularity of opponents of a particular candidate, but this advantage comes at the expense of preventing that candidate from broadening his support-base or contributing meaningfully to democratic discourse. Secondly, building on the previous point, voters have become increasingly aware negative campaigns’ ability to sterilise political debate. Voter apathy rises in response to aggressive campaigning that highlights flaws in the policies of political opponents, but does nothing to explain the contributions that another candidate may make. Declining turnout figures are also a response to the knock-on effect that negative campaigning has on independent media [iii] . The press tends to use more airtime and page-space covering attack campaigns, due to their sensationalist and lurid nature. Especially in the US, newspapers and television stations function as commercial entities, and controversy and fear mongering will always draw in more readers or viewers than cool, balanced argumentation [iv] . This tendency, in turn, closes off an important forum for public debate on the merits of candidate’s policies and on issues that voters may want to see addressed. Reporting on the shock tactics and partisan comments of politicians sells newspapers, but reporting on the statistics, proposals, claims and counter-claims of formal political debate does more to convince voters that their political system is representative and responsive to their needs. Banning overtly negative campaigning will remove the perverse incentives that distort press coverage of the meaningful, practical details of election campaigns. Consequently, voters will be able to draw on a wider range of information when making their choice at the ballot box. A ban will prevent politicians from engaging in attrition based campaigns designed purely to breed apathy among their opponent’s supporters. Participants in the political process should be encouraged to test and investigate each other’s policies, premises and ideals. The evolutionary, dialectical pressures that debate of this type exerts will ultimately lead to more refined policy making. In attempting to do more and offer more to voters, politicians will be forced to survey and interact with a wider range of potential supporters than they normally would. [i] Winning, but losing. How negative campaigns shrink electorate, manipulate news media. Ansolabhere, S. Iyengar, S. Stamford University. [ii] Winning, but losing. How negative campaigns shrink electorate, manipulate news media. Ansolabhere, S. Iyengar, S. Stamford University. [iii] Winning, but losing. How negative campaigns shrink electorate, manipulate news media. Ansolabhere, S. Iyengar, S. Stamford University. [iv] Political attack ads can be effective but risky. Rotman Business School, 10 May 2004. | |
It is fashionable to exaggerate the pervasiveness of the “negative campaign environment”, but democracy still functions perfectly well in almost all liberal states. People still vote when their vote will matter the most. Voter turnout in the 2008 [i] American presidential election and in the 2010 UK general election [ii] was significantly higher than in previous years. Both of these elections took place against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving financial crisis. Both elections focussed on candidates promoting a wide range of new and radical ideas. Both elections produced a preponderance of attack adverts that focussed on the content of policies, ideologies and the reliability of evidence showing the candidates’ previous policy success. With one or two over-reported exceptions, the politics of the personal was largely absent in both the US and the UK. Moreover, liberal-democratic ideals promote openness and transparency within both the government and the political class. Voters are entitled to information on a candidate’s “down-side”; the opponents of a candidate are obviously well placed to voice such concerns. Journalists risk accusations of bias if they attempt to publish details of an individual politician’s failings in office. However, when these issues are raised by an opponent of that politician, the press is placed in a position that allows it to act as a disinterested assessor of that claim. Far from simply reproducing negative messages, as side proposition claim that they do, the mass media frequently conduct detailed investigations into the content of attack adverts. “Ad watch” reports of this type are now a common feature of US election coverage [iii] . The interrelationship of politicians and the press enhances the transparency of the campaigning process. Proposition have unrealistic expectations when it comes to assessing the efficacy of campaign adverts. It is true that an attack advert will not be able to convert a supporter of its target into a supporter of the attacking politician. However, this is equally true of positive campaign adverts. The transfer of political loyalties will always be a long, drawn out process that on-spec campaigning cannot hope to influence [iv] . The resolution would compromise the efficiency of political campaigning by obliging candidates to over emphasise the role of ideology and policy in campaign literature, rather than their qualities as a decision maker. Moreover, the resolution would encourage politicians to “over-promise” in manifestos and campaign literature. If the only means by which contenders in an election can distinguish themselves is by pledging to initiate more new policies, taxes, tax cuts, projects or consultations than their opponents, the workloads of successful candidates will become artificially inflated and unmanageable. In short, politicians running for office will be incentivised to create ever more outlandish manifesto pledges and policy initiatives. Due to term-limits, organisational inefficiencies and unpredictable, emergent problems, very few of these promises will be realised. The consequence of this situation is obvious. When politicians fail to keep their promises, citizens will lose confidence in the effectiveness of the state. There is greater utility in encouraging politicians to be cautious and conservative when campaigning. If an election is dominated by fantastical and elaborate schemes that are left unfulfilled, the likely result will be chronic apathy and disengagement among the electorate – precisely the outcome that proposition wish to avoid. [i] Voter turnout in presidential elections: 1828-2008, The American Presidency Project, [ii] The Electoral Commission, [iii] Winning, but losing. How negative campaigns shrink electorate, manipulate news media. Ansolabhere, S. Iyengar, S. Stamford University. [iv] Effectiveness of negative political advertising. Won Ho Chang and others. 1998. Ohio University, Scripps School of Journalism. | |
It is not possible for a politician to win on a no-policy platform. As proposition points out, negative campaigning does little to convince its target’s supporters of the wisdom of the attacker’s policies. A politician who decides to use attack adverts in his campaign will not be able to transfer support from his opponents’ tickets to his. Thus, a politician who wants to employ negative campaigning tactics must already be confident that he has an existing support base and policies that other voters will be attracted to. Policy making and analysis remains the meat and drink of politics. The politics of the personal is reserved for campaigning season. Moreover, negative campaigning tactics are reserved for closely fought constituencies, states or districts. Side proposition does not give politicians credit for recognising that voters are rational individuals motivated by reasoned arguments. Where negative campaigning is used in public polls, it is usually deployed at the end of a protracted a very closely fought campaign. The number of negative adverts broadcast by a politician is usually tied to the closeness of a campaign itself. Moreover, negative campaigning can assist candidates who may be seeking to implement new policies, but lack the necessary name recognition and financial backing to succeed against a more experienced competitor. Negative campaigning, even if it is unable to instantly generate loyalty, may at least help to compel voters to seek out alternative perspectives on the issues over which an election is fought. Indeed, recommendations by the political consultancy business Complete Campaigns indicate that similar strategies have been successfully employed by their previous clients [i] . [i] Negative Campaigning. Complete Campaigns. | |
Negative campaigning reduces the diversity and representativeness of government. Many able, idealistic and talented individuals are discouraged or excluded from participating in the political process by aggressive negative campaigning [i] . Bright potential candidates may be concerned about intrusion by political opponents into their private lives or backgrounds [ii] . They may be opposed in principle to participating in a political culture that obliges aspirant office holders to engage in smear- and fear-lead campaigning. Under the status quo, only those able to stomach the confrontational and bullying tactics that have grown up around contemporary electioneering will dare enter the political arena. Moreover, such trends in political culture favour candidates with close links to the media. Individuals able to command the ear of newspaper owners, or who possess a professional background in journalism or publicity will be better able to manipulate or evade attacks launched via television and mass communications. A democratic system is best served when it encourages the participation of candidates from a range of backgrounds and professional fields. The ability of a government to arrive at novel solutions to problems confronting a state, to understand that state’s economy and to effectively represent different sectors of the population will be compromised without a diverse skillset within the state’s legislative and executive branches. By transforming politics into a game based on the production of political “brands” and unassailable, manufactured “personalities,” the jousting and muckraking of negative campaigning gives a disproportionate advantage to former editors and PR men [iii] . This dilutes the pool of professionals from which future leaders are drawn, leading to poor policy making (due to a lack of professional skills) and a conservative, sclerotic, defensive approach to political problem solving. Western liberal politics is increasingly discussed only in terms of communication, image, rhetoric and appearance [iv] , rather than the technical language of law, economics and diplomacy. Negative campaigning artificially limits the types of people and professions who can engage in political discourse, infantilising and disabling politics itself. [i] “Meg’s mistake”, The Economist, 28 September 2009, [ii] “Tory woman attacks ‘misogyny’ of grassroots members”, The Guardian, 01 November 2009. [iii] “Analysis: PR people fall prey to the lure of parliament.”, PR Week, 04 April 1996. [iv] “I’m fake, vote for me”, The Guardian, 22 September 2006. | |
Negative campaigning leads to negative governance. Information on demographics, on taxation rates, on the state’s finances are made publically available precisely so that voters can arrive at reasoned, rational and nuanced decisions as to whom they should vote for. Governments are judged by evidence of the efficacy of their policies. Analysis conducted by political scientists William Riker, Michael Davis and Michael Ferrantino [i] show that where negative campaigning is permitted, even politicians with no history of running attack campaigns will adopt aggressive electoral tactics. If a politician wins on a positive platform- by promising to implement new policies and reform existing ones- then his chances of re-election will be affected by his success or failure in bringing about those changes. The electorate are able to test and assess a politician’s positive claims. However, if a politician campaigns on a negative platform, portraying his opponent as incompetent or his policies as damaging, an electoral victory will make such claims unassailable. The attacking politician will be free to state that his election has prevented the dire consequences he warned from coming about. Non one will be able to prove otherwise, notwithstanding the spluttering of his defeated opponent. By portraying opponents as reckless or dangerously radical, an attacking politician immediately sets himself up as the lesser of two evils. This may do little to convert undecided voters, but it still allows the successful candidate to take credit for “protecting” the electorate. Although this strategy may be the easiest to implement, it does not fit with the ideal of critical and ideological transparency that characterises contemporary liberal states. The increasing amount of information produced by governments, think tanks, universities and political parties is intended to make the state- and the electorate- more responsive to the success and failure of particular policies. By closing the gap between the proposal of a policy, its implementation and the indicators of its success, information-led democracy supposedly makes governance and democratic choice more efficient. Negative campaigning circumvents this feedback system. It distorts ideas, by misrepresenting them and rendering them unacceptable, before any objective assessment of their merits has taken place. Moreover, negative portrayals of candidates and policies, as noted above, are more likely to dominate media coverage, than the sober, balanced information produced by academics and analysts. This line of argument also leads to equally damaging distortion of the attacking candidate’s platform and proposals. By diverting resources to negative campaigning and attack adverts, candidates have less time and money to expend on the creation of positive policies. Indeed, the fewer testable claims that a candidate makes about his own policies, the less likely he is to be subject to effective criticism by opponents or the electorate if he takes up office. Negative campaigning incentivises a distant, evasive, conservative approach to government. It creates an adversarial relationship between politicians and those wishing to gather and disseminate information about the effects of policies – academics, political analysts and engaged citizens. [i] The Rational Attacker in Russia? Negative Campaigning in Russian Presidential Elections. Sigelman, L and Shiraev, E. New York University, April 2001. | |
It is almost impossible to guarantee that groups are truly independent, in the sense in which side opposition uses the word. In America, so called “527” organisations [i] , which profess no direct affiliation with a candidate, are permitted to launch campaigns to attack or support particular politicians, without being subjected to the same funding limitations and fair conduct rules as political parties. [ii] Right-to-life groups and religiously motivated organisations may operate as 527s, along with groups controlled by business organisations. Coordination between 527 groups, candidates and political parties is banned in the US. In practice, however, the close alignment of the groups’ ideological objectives and the characteristic policies of Republican and Democrat candidates leads to 527s taking their cues (and their targets) from the pronouncements of politicians and their campaigns. Groups such as Citizen’s Solidarity and the Indian anti-corruption movement mobilised around Anna Hazare [iii] are comparatively rare. Where flaws in a nation’s democratic institutions are pervasive, affecting coalitions, government and opposition parties, the role of the press as a neutral observer is usually more effective than political attacks in bringing problems to light – consider the role of the Daily Telegraph in disclosing British MP’s misuse of their publicly funded expense allowances [iv] . [i] “FEC collects $630000 in civil penalties from three 527 organisations”. Federal Election Commission, 13 December 2006. [ii] Section 527, United Stated Internal Revenue Code. [iii] “No modern-day Mahatma”. The Economist, 27 April 2011. [iv] MPs’ Expenses. The Daily Telegraph. | |
Use of negative campaigning in primaries may help to build support among voters who already identify with a particular party, but it can also lower a politician in the view of undecided or swing voters. Primaries, now more than ever, are public contests, given as much attention by the media as elections themselves. Mudslinging tactics deployed by candidates during a primary are likely to give ammunition to opponents in any ensuing election. The fact that all participants in an election are likely to have engaged in negative campaigning at one time or another is beside the point – the activity is harmful in and of itself, because of its ability to engender apathy. Negative campaigning in political primaries fuels further negative campaigning during general elections. Even if, as opposition suggest, an aggressive primary campaign is useful for winnowing out weak and compromised candidates, negative campaigning in the election that follows will prevent those “strong” candidates from disseminating useful, political positive information. As noted in proposition’s second substantive argument, the strongest candidate many not always be the individual best able to respond to slanderous and fear-mongering attack adverts. Intelligence, compassion, charisma and technical expertise do not always go hand in hand with a thick skin and the ability to dig dirt. | |
The difficulty of identifying attack adverts and negative messages. The content and meaning of a particular broadcast or print advert will not always be clear. A piece of campaign media may not be uniformly and objectively positive or negative in tone. Words are ambiguous, their definition based partly on the experiences and opinions of observers. Context can also play an important role in determining how a political communication may be perceived. When a scandal breaks involving an opponent, is it legitimate for one of the others candidates in an election to run positive adverts about their own background on a particular topic. If an incumbent is found to be a cuckold, for example, could a challenger run an advert asserting that he was a “good family man”? Side proposition may choose to respond by creating some variety of independent campaign commission, or by expanding the role of the judiciary. However, this does nothing to address the basic issue of subjectivity highlighted above. | |
Independent campaign groups. The resolution ignores the possibility that negative campaigns may occur outside of a partisan context. In India [i] and Korea [ii] , grass roots campaigns without specific party or ideological ties have been used to highlight corruption among electoral candidates and legislative incumbents. These campaigns are arguably an expression of democratic political freedom, with individual citizens banding together to enforce core democratic norms. However, as the example of the Citizen’s Solidarity movement in South Korea shows, because such actions inevitably involve questioning the character and conduct of politicians running for election, they frequently fall foul of laws designed to restrict negative campaigning. Similar problems are encountered by the professional press. Even in countries with liberal electoral and libel law regimes, the press frequently find themselves accused of political bias if they attempt to highlight mendacity or wrongdoing by a particular candidate. Unless the wrongdoing in question is particularly severe, western journalists may find themselves in the position of their Singaporean counterparts – held accountable for “electoral crimes”, libel or contempt of court by a body of law that treat political institutions as sacrosanct and denies that scrutiny of those institutions’ officer holders is necessary. [i] “No modern-day Mahatma”. The Economist, 27 April 2011. [ii] “Korea’s art of negative campaigning.” The Economist, 6 April 2000. | |
Identifying strong, honest candidates. As noted above, the rougher, ruder, character-oriented tone of a negative campaigning environment acts as a useful test of a politician’s reputation and integrity. Further, opposition wish to restate their early counter-argument on the evolving and dynamic nature of election campaigns. No campaign is uniformly negative of positive. A candidate who is able to stand firm in the face of attacks against his character and his policies is much more likely to be able to act as a strong advocate in a legislative forum, or when accounting for the actions of the executive. Determination and strong argumentation skills in one area imply a similar degree of dedication in other areas. By contrast, how much confidence should we have in a politician who would be prepared to appeal to the enforcement mechanism created by the proposition to forcibly exclude a particular statement or allegation from a political debate, rather than respond to it? The problems that confront national governments cannot be dismissed simply by invoking a law designed to eliminate fuzzily defined forms of unfair conduct. Attack adverts are used much more frequently in US-style primary selection contests, which poll members of a particular political party in order determine the candidate who will represent it in national or lower-level elections [i] . The use of negative campaigning in the context of party or semi-open primaries may help to distinguish between politicians running on very similar ideological platforms. If an aspiring president’s ideological allies can be dissuaded from voting for him, based on his past actions or associations, it will be extremely easy to convince undecided voters to do the same. By identifying politicians who are difficult to assail on an ad hominem basis, and by identifying politicians who can remain composed and professional when subjected to such attacks, political parties are able to field significantly stronger candidates in open elections. Voters then carry out similar assessments of character and integrity in the polling booth. [i] “Clinton Questions Role of Obama in a Crisis”. The New York Times, 01 March 2008. | |
It is perfectly easy to rule on what is positive and negative. It is true that some positive broadcasts might be meant to play up the strengths of one candidate, precisely because that’s where his opponent is weakest – but that approach still represents an improvement on the current situation, where the majority of campaign media focuses on the flaw of a candidate’s rivals. Subjectivity has no role to play in the verification of objective facts. Currently, many campaign adverts are based around misrepresenting the content of an opposition candidate’s policies, or making far-fetched connections between negative social or economic trends and bills that a particular candidate voted in favour of. Questioning the objective distance of the body that would enforce the rules created by the resolution is also ineffective. Judges are appointed based on their ability to analyse and sift complicated arguments based on disputed or compromised sets of facts. There is no reason to assume that similar principles of neutrality and respect for the separation of powers within a democratic state would not also apply to reformed election laws | |
No doubt Daesh does have long term territorial plans, but in practice Daesh is currently stuck in Iraq and Syria unable to conquer either. Yes Daesh being territorial makes it very unusual for a terrorist organisation. However this also provides a fixed target to defeat, and that defeat can be on foreign soil. Daesh has a long shot chance of tearing up the borders of the Middle East. However as these borders have long been criticised as illogical and contrived this would not necessarily undermine the state system in the Middle East, it may even benefit from more cohesive populations with national boundaries. [1] [1] Trofimov, Yaroslav, ‘Would new borders mean less conflict in the Middle East?’, WSJ, 10 April 2015, | |
The territory claimed by Daesh extends to Europe Daesh territory currently spreads across parts of Syria and Iraq. It is this transnationalism that makes it a dangerous opponent. It is not just a threat to one state but to every state in the Middle East and North Africa. Daesh claims to be a Caliphate which means it claims leadership over the entire Muslim community. Such a claim would inevitably include European countries such as Bosnia and Albania where there are Muslim majorities. The Caliphate’s legitimacy is tied to its territorial expansion. [1] A threat to the territorial states system within the Middle East, let alone Europe, is a significant threat to the west who created that system. The deconstruction of the states of the Middle East would destroy western allies, give an extreme organisation immense oil wealth from the Gulf, and likely make Israel an untenable outpost. [1] Vick, Karl, ‘As ISIS Grows Its Territory, It Becomes Increasingly Dangerous’, Time, 15 June 2015, | |
Daesh ideology and the possibility of terrorist attacks resulting from it is undeniably a problem. However the flow of fighters is mostly the other way; from Europe to Syria and Iraq, five to six thousand have made this journey. [1] It might therefore be said that Daesh is importing terrorism from the west rather than exporting it. We have no way of knowing how many terrorist attacks these fighters may have committed had they stayed in their home countries. [1] Reuters, ‘Islamic State smuggling terrorists among the migrants? Unlikely, say experts’, EurActive.com, 28 August 2015, | |
Deash has a compelling ideology Daesh has an ideology that is a threat to western states, particularly those with Muslim minorities. Although Daesh’s ideology might seem incompatible with west the west an ICM poll found in 2014 that 16% of French citizens have a positive opinion of Daesh. [1] This means that western countries face an ideological clash within their own populations. A majority dislikes and fears Daesh and its ideology while a minority supports them despite their violence. Such a split reduces community cohesion and will likely breed distrust of Muslim populations (even of those who don’t have positive views of Daesh). [2] [1] Grant, Madeline, ‘16% of French Citizens Support ISIS, Poll finds’, newsweek, 26 August 2014, [2] Hundal, Sunny, ‘The real threat from the Islamic State is to Muslims, not the west’, AlJazeera, 26 August 2014, | |
Daesh may have an ideology that is compelling to some people, but that number is comparatively tiny, nothing like the millions that were attracted to western ideology during the cold war. Daesh needs a population to consider itself a success and yet the population of Syria have voted with their feet [1] – they have fled to neighbouring countries not IS controlled areas. The United Nations has almost 4.3million registered refugees, [2] when the 7.6million internally displaced are included the numbers are far higher yet these people are not flooding into IS controlled areas. [3] [1] Sky, Emma, ‘Standing idly by while the Middle East unravels is not an option’, The Guardian, 26 November 2015, [2] ‘Registered Syrian Refugees’ Syria Regional Refugee Response, updated 17th November 2015, [3] ‘Syria IDP Figures Analysis’, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, July 2015, | |
Daesh and the Syrian civil war is nurture terrorism for export Daesh is a terrorist organisation. [1] There are large numbers of people within Europe who support Islamic State and Europeans travelling to fight for Daesh is an ongoing problem; more than 700 from the UK alone. [2] There is therefore concern about these people coming back and mounting terrorist attacks, as appears to have been the case with three of those involved in the 2015 Paris attacks; Omar Ismail Mostefai, Bilal Hadfi, and Samy Amimour. [3] [1] Bureau of Counterterrorism, ‘Foreign Terrorist Organizations’, U.S. Department of State, accessed 1 September 2015, [2] BBC News, ‘Who are Britain’s jihadists?’, 25 June 2015, [3] Farmer, Ben, ‘Who were the terrorists? Everything we know about the Isil attackers so far’, The Telegraph, 20th November 2015, | |
Distance does not matter in today’s world. Refugees from Syria are pouring in to Greece but also enter the EU much further afield through Hungary or Italy. Ideology has its influence regardless of distance meaning resulting terrorist attacks are as likely to happen in Paris as Nicosia and are as likely to be by those who have grown up in western Europe as those arriving from Syria itself. Thinking that distance insulates us from the threat posed by Daesh is as wrong as the belief that what a state does matters only inside its borders. | |
There may be threats that can cause much greater damage than Daesh but these are neither immediate nor very likely. Nuclear war is undoubtedly a massive threat, but we succeeded in getting through 45 years of cold war without these weapons being used so the probability of the threat happening is low. Climate Change on the other hand is less a security issue than an environmental, economic, and societal one. Daesh on the other hand has already struck at western states with the Paris attacks, and has sucked large numbers of western citizens into a war against their own countries in Syria and Iraq. The threat from Daesh is therefore immediate, almost certain, and large. | |
Daesh has little impact outside the Middle East The main threat from Daesh is to Muslims, and to those who live in and around the areas it controls. The main goal of Islamic state is to set up an Islamic caliphate and that means the primary enemy is the existing states of the Middle East. Those who support those states, and other ‘apostates’ such as Shia Muslims are also threatened by IS but this very focus means that western states have less to worry about when considering their own national security. [1] Daesh’s priority quite simply lies within Syria and Iraq not in launching attacks against western states. It is undeniable that the threat of IS attacks exists, and Daesh has struck back against states, France and Russia, that have been fighting it but unlike with 9/11 western intervention caused the terrorist response rather than the other way around. [1] Hundal, Sunny, ‘The real threat from the Islamic State is to Muslims, not the west’, AlJazeera, 26 August 2014, | |
The west is insulated by distance from Daesh All western countries are insulated by distance from Islamic State. The closest western countries are Greece and Cyprus which is as close as the EU comes to Syria. But both are separated from Syria by the Mediterranean Sea. If Daesh were truly considered a threat of the kind that requires harsh national security responses then Europe could close its borders to the South and East – its borders with Turkey in particular. This has however not happened because the risk of terrorists (re-)entering Europe is not considered great enough to warrant such a response. | |
There are other larger threats. Terrorism by Daesh is undoubtedly a threat to the West. It is however a minor one. The largest security concern should still be the small chance of complete destruction by nuclear weapons. Tensions with Russia make this more likely than at any time since the gold war. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ doomsday clock is set at 3 minutes to midnight in 1015 – it was last 3 minutes to midnight in 1984 at the height of the cold war before Gorbachev gained power in the USSR. [1] Disasters are increasingly seen as an issue of national security and Climate Change is quite possibly an even greater threat as a result of the certainly of considerable warming and the resulting disasters it is likely to bring; by 2045 the Union of Concerned Scientists say that cities such as Atlantic City could face tidal flooding more than 180 times a year resulting in costly damage. [2] [1] Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, ‘Timeline’, [2] Union of Concerned Scientists, ‘Encroaching Tides (2014)’, |
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