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# Analysis: US restricts GPU sales to China
What are the restrictions?
--------------------------
Broadly speaking, the policy restricts the sale of GPUs and related technology to Chinese companies. The specifics remain unclear because (a) the Department of Commerce hasn't released its official press report yet and (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oBTkthd7h8sDpkiu2/analysis-us-restricts-gpu-sales-to-china |
# Don't leave your fingerprints on the future
Sometimes, I say some variant of “yeah, probably some people will need to do a [pivotal act](https://arbital.com/p/pivotal/)” and people raise the objection: “Should a small subset of humanity really get so much control over the fate of the future?”
(Sometimes, I hear the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJRe5obJd7kqCkvRr/don-t-leave-your-fingerprints-on-the-future |
# The Biggest Problem with Deontology: The Aggregation Problem
Michael Huemer is a fan of weak deontology, the view that you should avoid committing rights violations merely to produce *greater but comparable* benefits (though you might be required to violate rights to produce *much better* consequences). But he ackno... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JRkj8antnMedT9adA/the-biggest-problem-with-deontology-the-aggregation-problem |
# Deliberate practice for research?
I would like to gain mastery in the domain of alignment research. Deliberate practice is a powerful sledge hammer for gaining mastery. But unlike something like chess or piano, it's not clear to me how to use this sledge hammer for this domain. The feedback loops are extremely long,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LEPfuw7zYnJo2QXBb/deliberate-practice-for-research |
# The Teacup Test
"I want to get into AI alignment," said Xenophon.
"Why?" said Socrates.
"Because an AGI is going to destroy humanity if we don't stop it," said Xenophon.
"What's an AGI?" said Socrates.
"An artificial general intelligence," said Xenophon.
"I understand the words 'artificial' and 'general'. But w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6smshoLzm7qrgsrb8/the-teacup-test |
# Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent |
# The "you-can-just" alarm
Daniel Dennett argues for the idea of a "[Surely alarm](https://medium.com/science-and-technology/how-to-spot-a-weak-argument-83dacb1fe14c)" which says that whenever you hear someone say "surely" in an argument, an alarm should sound in your head—\*ding!\*—and you should pay attention for we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8JS6TS6RFEhmDboio/the-you-can-just-alarm |
# Introducing the Basic Post-scarcity Map
A society in which all basic human needs are provided at zero or very low cost without significant human work can be defined as basic post-scarcity.
Our civilization is getting close to the point where this is technically feasible.
To reach this milestone as soon as possible... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sJWbezWag57zrdika/introducing-the-basic-post-scarcity-map |
# How many GPUs does NVIDIA make?
There are a few subquestions that I've had trouble finding numbers on with a quick search. Asking these questions mostly because they seem important for forecasting compute trends.
* How many units of each model (i.e A100, 3090, etc) does NVIDIA make per month?
* Which of these ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ouqDEE9NX7g7GThWN/how-many-gpus-does-nvidia-make |
# SERI MATS Program - Winter 2022 Cohort
The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative ([SERI](https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/stanford-existential-risks-initiative/content/stanford-existential-risks-initiative)) recently opened [applications](https://airtable.com/shr47sH073PmsLylA) for the Winter 2022 Cohort of the [ML Al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iR4kGzrWEJpXJ39ZB/seri-mats-program-winter-2022-cohort |
# Football, quantum chromodynamics, figure skating and statistics
(Cross-posted from [Telescopic Turnip](https://malmesbury.substack.com/p/football-quantum-chromodynamics?sd=pf).)
*“He—and he is almost always a he—is a venture capitalist who has analyzed the hospitalizations data! He is a growth hacker with a piercin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RBgQksfwDuZR4vxHb/football-quantum-chromodynamics-figure-skating-and |
# Signaling Guilt
Does anyone feel "signaling guilt"?
When I have to write something like a CV/Resume/essay for the purpose of admission into a high-status institution (e.g., academia, high-paying job), I feel an insane amount of [ugh-field](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EFQ3F6kmt4WHXRqik/ugh-fields) and find mysel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KQqt8R5SoNF7Dxuux/signaling-guilt |
# My tentative interpretability research agenda - topology matching.
I'm looking for feedback on these ideas before I start working on them in November.
The goal of interpretability is to understand representations, and to be able to translate between them. This idea tries to discover translations between the represe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dWHkGfgegvCxuhsgX/my-tentative-interpretability-research-agenda-topology |
# Consider your appetite for disagreements
## Poker
There was a time about five years ago where I was trying to get good at poker. If you want to get good at poker, one thing you have to do is review hands. Preferably with other people.
For example, suppose you have ace king offsuit on the button. Someone in the hig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8vesjeKybhRggaEpT/consider-your-appetite-for-disagreements |
# Good ontologies induce commutative diagrams
*Epistemic status: early-stage research ideas; I think they're interesting, but half of them might be wrong*
Imagine you're building a robot that can catch a ball by getting observations from a camera and then moving to the correct position. The robot should probably have... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nLhHY2c8MWFcuWRLx/good-ontologies-induce-commutative-diagrams |
# Cleaning a Spoon is Complex
A friend of mine recently shared this:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/max-temkin-spoon-poster-big.jpg)
I've seen it go by dozens of times since Max Tempkin \[1\] made it [back in 2011](https://web.archive.org/web/20111010045930/http://ww... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DRiBR53JvPQKxKPyS/cleaning-a-spoon-is-complex |
# Let’s talk about uncontrollable AI
[*In another post*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gEchYntjSXk9KXorK/uncontrollable-ai-as-an-existential-risk)*, I published four hypotheses on uncontrollable AI as an existential risk. Here I give some background on why I chose this particular framing.*
Talking about existential... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6JhjHJ2rdiXcSe7tp/let-s-talk-about-uncontrollable-ai |
# Uncontrollable AI as an Existential Risk
*The following text is meant to be an introduction to existential risks from advanced AI for professionals outside of the AI safety community, in particular scientists in other relevant fields, politicians, and other decision-makers. The aim is to raise awareness of the probl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gEchYntjSXk9KXorK/uncontrollable-ai-as-an-existential-risk |
# Possible miracles
*Epistemic status: Speculative and *[*exploratory*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hrm59GdN2yDPWbtrd/feature-idea-epistemic-status)*.*
*Contributions: Akash wrote the initial list; Thomas reviewed the list and provided additional points. Unless specified otherwise, writing in the first person is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z3GwFzt4fnBdPz5hd/possible-miracles |
# The Balto/Togo theory of scientific development
Tragically I gave up on the Plate Tectonics study before answering my most important question: “Is Alfred Wegener the Balto of plate tectonics?”
Let me back up.
Balto
=====
[Balto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balto) is a famous sled dog. He got a statue in NYC for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sNg4oGDrfka47Bu6Y/the-balto-togo-theory-of-scientific-development |
# [Crosspost] AlphaTensor, Taste, and the Scalability of AI
My big takeaway from the AlphaTensor paper is that DeepMind have extraordinary *taste*: they're able to identify problems that their approach to AI can tackle well, today; and they can figure out how to regiment those problems in such a way as make the AI tac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CJp8PtxdnR3kgyir7/crosspost-alphatensor-taste-and-the-scalability-of-ai |
# Why So Many Cookie Banners?
Sometimes you'll see people saying things like:
> Using cookies to track state on a website, that is only used for that website, is fine. You don't need to ask for consent.—[rrwo](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33139609)
Or:
> You don't need a cookie banner to be allowed to creat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AnKqN6jSG5D96Smh9/why-so-many-cookie-banners |
# AMC's animated series "Pantheon" is relevant to our interests
Sorry for the vague title. I'm avoiding spoilers for those who care a lot about that sort of thing.
SPOILERS FOLLOW
* * *
The series illustrates a fast take-off scenario. It tells the story of a fast-take-off scenario of "uploaded intelligence". Of cou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HQdRqhLPHsuNekvXk/amc-s-animated-series-pantheon-is-relevant-to-our-interests |
# Results from the language model hackathon
We ran a [black box investigation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGaw4NqRha8hgx5ny/the-case-for-becoming-a-black-box-investigator-of-language) [hackathon](https://itch.io/jam/llm-hackathon) ([original post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/npm6mrJQzungTLsKj/black-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5DsHZidaShW5EM9rz/results-from-the-language-model-hackathon |
# We can do better than argmax
*Summary*: A much-discussed normative model of prioritisation in EA is akin to *argmax *(putting all resources on your top option). But this model often prescribes foolish things, so we rightly deviate from it – but in ad hoc ways. We describe a more principled approach: a kind of *softm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pF4PsCm2LMdqp2ida/we-can-do-better-than-argmax |
# Lessons learned from talking to >100 academics about AI safety
*I’d like to thank MH, Jaime Sevilla and Tamay Besiroglu for their feedback.*
During my Master's and Ph.D. (still ongoing), I have spoken with many academics about AI safety. These conversations include chats with individual PhDs, poster presentations a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqjQFhn5KTarfW8v7/lessons-learned-from-talking-to-greater-than-100-academics |
# Why Balsa Research is Worthwhile
Previously: [Announcing Balsa Research](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/announcing-balsa-research)
It is easy to see why improving government policy would be impactful. The part where one has a chance of pulling it off requires explanation. Here are four fair questions.
1. Why belie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s9QQZqRxFGt8itGft/why-balsa-research-is-worthwhile |
# When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're deferring to
It's fashionable these days to ask people about their AI timelines. And it's fashionable to have things to say in response.
But relative to the number of people who report their timelines, I suspect that only a small fraction have put in the effort to fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GSDY7xLuivSzfCLJg/when-reporting-ai-timelines-be-clear-who-you-re-not |
# Natural Categories Update
One concern in the AI-Alignment problem is that neural networks are "alien minds". Namely the representations that they learn of the world are too weird/different to allow effect communication of human goals and ideas.
For example, EY [writes](there is no known way to use the paradigm of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BdfQMrtuL8wNfpfnF/natural-categories-update |
# Disentangling inner alignment failures
**TL;DR:** This is an attempt to disentangle some concepts that I used to conflate too much as just "inner alignment". This will be old news to some, but might be helpful for people who feel confused about how deception, distributional shift, and "sharp left turns" are related.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pWRRBtLSncELQLfrg/disentangling-inner-alignment-failures |
# Does biology reliably find the global maximum, or at least get close?
Jacob Cannell has claimed that biological systems at least get within 1 OOM of not a local, but global maximum in abilities.
His comment about biology nearing various limits are reproduced here:
> The paper you linked seems quite old and out of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pFaLjmyjBKPdbptPr/does-biology-reliably-find-the-global-maximum-or-at-least |
# Apollo
*Life is a response to being*
* * *
**Part II**
Over the course of my twenties, I'd accumulated thousands of hastily jotted notes. Thoughts that had grown in the gaps between work and play I'd managed to save before lost off the cliff of forgetting.
Thoughts like, "*I'm starting to suspect it's possible t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qBJHGz8trhmhcQDqP/apollo |
# QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Introduction
------------
This is week 4 of Quintin's Alignment Papers Roundup. The current focus is the inductive biases of stochastic gradient descent.
For most datasets and labels, there are many possible models that reach good performance. "Inductive biases" refers to the various facto... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxQJWw8RtXJdngBtS/qapr-4-inductive-biases |
# EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (26 Sep - 9 Oct 22')
*Supported by Rethink Priorities*
*Author's note: this post covers the past two weeks, with a karma bar of 80+ instead of the usual 40+. Covid knocked me out a bit so playing catch up! Future posts will be back to the usual schedule and karma requirement.*
This is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LRLGtbyCBTomqrJhQ/ea-and-lw-forums-weekly-summary-26-sep-9-oct-22 |
# Misalignment Harms Can Be Caused by Low Intelligence Systems
Most clinical trials are very simple statistical models. There are not trillions of parameters in a complex neural network architecture. Yet they are still the most effective tools we have at validating and optimising health and recovery in human beings. V... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TjbNF8QGJEDqdBEN7/misalignment-harms-can-be-caused-by-low-intelligence-systems |
# Why I think nuclear war triggered by Russian tactical nukes in Ukraine is unlikely
This is a response to Max's post [Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent).
Max's thesis is t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WXRQwuapvGP4FesnW/why-i-think-nuclear-war-triggered-by-russian-tactical-nukes |
# Prettified AI Safety Game Cards
Donald Hobson's [AI Safety Card Game](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nex8EgEJPsn7dvoQB/the-ai-safety-game-updated) already has simple cards you can print out on cardstock and cut out, but I wanted a nicer print-on-demand version with illustrated card backs.[^vnjwx1uov2k] [You can ord... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XtDFSaftGm8hNBemG/prettified-ai-safety-game-cards |
# From technocracy to the counterculture
*Part 2 of my review of American Genesis*
Quote quiz: who said this?
> American efficiency is that indomitable force which neither knows nor recognizes obstacles; which continues on a task once started until it is finished, even if it is a minor task; and without which seriou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8YJxzRumTqoftqp39/from-technocracy-to-the-counterculture |
# Abbots Bromley Horn Dance History
If you see the Abbots Bromley horn dance performed in the US (Revels, Pinewoods, etc) it typically looks something like:
([youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5qCfQlipqE))
Note the serious and mildly "spooky" setting, and the use of Robinson's tune.
Compare to how it's done... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qTpt42r3vF52jN5yN/abbots-bromley-horn-dance-history |
# AstralCodexTen and Rationality Meetup Organisers’ Retreat Asia Pacific region
**TL;DR: Retreat for APAC meetup organisers, mid 2023, apply** [**here**](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdsUgqhMFGnkmIn_ZIKfvQ8CZSU1RGHCqZIZ1QBi1X8WVVRDA/viewform)
Application (5 min form) soft deadline: 31ˢᵗ Oct 2022
**Why a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yzGWf2cQc3ZDvNkTo/astralcodexten-and-rationality-meetup-organisers-retreat-1 |
# That one apocalyptic nuclear famine paper is bunk
I've seen a few commentors and bloggers cite [this study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0) from Nature Food to explain why they think nuclear war may lead to the collapse of civilization in event of a full nuclear exchange between the US and Russia... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sJK6HN5vTPPnuuNgQ/that-one-apocalyptic-nuclear-famine-paper-is-bunk |
# Contingency is not arbitrary
[In my last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/omoK8jCMPNWmabFCt/truth-seeking-is-motivated-cognition) I made the point that truth is contingent on human motivations. I got a couple comments interpreting me as saying that truth is arbitrary. This is definitely not what I mean, and it'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EnBqRkhPXfYFxPKCv/contingency-is-not-arbitrary |
# Actually, All Nuclear Famine Papers are Bunk
After doing a bit of digging, I'm pretty convinced that nuclear famine was never a thing to begin with. Maybe back during the Cold War, when the Soviets were seriously considering ground-bursting thousands of warheads across the American corn belt to knock out missile sil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jnDibtfvWNHLucf4D/actually-all-nuclear-famine-papers-are-bunk |
# Calibration of a thousand predictions
I’ve been making predictions in a spreadsheet for the last four years, and I recently got to a thousand resolved predictions. Some observations:
1. I’m surprisingly well calibrated for things that mostly aren’t my own behavior^[1](#fn:1)^. Here’s the calibration curve for 630 ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dHchoTG6tRGEDHbtj/calibration-of-a-thousand-predictions |
# A game of mattering
When I have an overwhelming number of things to do, and insufficient native urge to do them, I often arrange them into a kind of game for myself. The nature and appeal of this game has been relatively stable for about a year, after many years of evolution, so this seems like a reasonable time to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v4bphwnwKm9j4z629/a-game-of-mattering-1 |
# Instrumental convergence in single-agent systems
**Summary of the sequence**
---------------------------
Over the past few months, we’ve been investigating instrumental convergence in reinforcement learning agents. We started from the definition of single-agent POWER [proposed](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.01683.pdf)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pGvM95EfNXwBzjNCJ/instrumental-convergence-in-single-agent-systems |
# Building a transformer from scratch - AI safety up-skilling challenge
It is not always obvious whether your skills are sufficiently good to work for one of the various AI safety and alignment organizations. There are many options to calibrate and improve your skills including just applying to an org or talking with ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/98jCNefEaBBb7jwu6/building-a-transformer-from-scratch-ai-safety-up-skilling |
# Alignment 201 curriculum
This curriculum, a follow-up to the [Alignment Fundamentals curriculum](https://www.agisafetyfundamentals.com/ai-alignment-curriculum) (the ‘[101](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/101_(slang))’ to this 201 curriculum), aims to give participants enough knowledge about alignment to understand the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s4GqendqFsKzfhFzD/alignment-201-curriculum |
# [MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future
*You can* [*subscribe to the newsletter here*](https://newsletter.mlsafety.org/)*, follow the newsletter on* [*twitter*](https://twitter.com/ml_safety) *here, or join the subreddit* [*here*](https://www.reddit.com/r/mlsafety/)*.*
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zeAwqhjHpsJcJDmuf/mlsn-6-transparency-survey-provable-robustness-ml-models |
# Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence
KL-divergence is a topic which crops up in a ton of different places in information theory and machine learning, so it's important to understand well. Unfortunately, it has some properties which seem confusing at a first pass (e.g. it isn't symmetric like we would expect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/no5jDTut5Byjqb4j5/six-and-a-half-intuitions-for-kl-divergence |
# Towards a comprehensive study of potential psychological causes of the ordinary range of variation of affective gender identity in males
*This post is also available at* [*surveyanon*](https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/2022/10/12/towards-a-comprehensive-study-of-potential-psychological-causes-of-the-ordinary-range-of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4NPfBfdBmYZDEBgWb/towards-a-comprehensive-study-of-potential-psychological |
# Help out Redwood Research’s interpretability team by finding heuristics implemented by GPT-2 small
Some of Redwood’s current research involves finding specific behaviors that language models exhibit, and then doing interpretability to explain how the model does these behaviors. One example of this is the indirect ob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LkBmAGJgZX2tbwGKg/help-out-redwood-research-s-interpretability-team-by-finding |
# Niceness is unnatural
When I'm arguing points like [orthogonality](https://arbital.com/p/orthogonality/) and [fragility of value](http://intelligence.org/files/ComplexValues.pdf), I've occasionally come across rejoinders that I'll (perhaps erroneously) summarize:
> Superintelligences are not spawned fully-formed; t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krHDNc7cDvfEL8z9a/niceness-is-unnatural |
# Glossary Dance Game
[Harris](https://chromamine.com/) recently laser-cut some tokens for walking through contra dances (presumably in preparation for calling [BIDA](https://www.bidadance.org/) [this Sunday](https://www.facebook.com/events/1165551591005008)) and remarked that they looked like game pieces:
[ just had their yearly conference. I think right now is a good time to take a brief break from worrying about AI timelines, and take a few minutes to notice the shortness of VR timelines. VR isn't going to determine whether humani... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oRakD8uKduPYhcek7/transformative-vr-is-likely-coming-soon |
# Cataloguing Priors in Theory and Practice
*This post is part of my* [*hypothesis subspace*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/H3xEgE7bPGKvucfQk) *sequence, a living collection of proposals I'm exploring at* [*Refine.*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5uiQkyKdejX3aEHLM/how-to-diversify-conceptual-alignment-the-model-behind... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EnRLAnRLG5zyJ9sAf/cataloguing-priors-in-theory-and-practice |
# Covid 10/13/22: Just the Facts
As discussed last week, I am going to shift procedures a bit. From this point forward, the Covid posts themselves will only cover Covid-19 and related issues.
There will then be a second post that contains all non-Covid developments that I do not think have reason to want their own po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MfJgz4KqyiAg2WHwk/covid-10-13-22-just-the-facts |
# A stubborn unbeliever finally gets the depth of the AI alignment problem
> *I realise posting this here might be preaching to the converted, but I think it could be interesting for some people to see a perspective from someone slow to get onboard with worrying about AI alignment.*
$$
I’m one of those people that f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7javM56eys8uE3cn2/a-stubborn-unbeliever-finally-gets-the-depth-of-the-ai |
# Misalignment-by-default in multi-agent systems
Summary of this post
--------------------
This is the second post in a three-part [sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HBMLmW9WsgsdZWg4R) on instrumental convergence in multi-agent RL. [Read Part 1 here.](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pGvM95EfNXwBzjNCJ/ex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cemhavELfHFHRaA7Q/misalignment-by-default-in-multi-agent-systems |
# Weekly Non-Covid News #1 (10/13/22)
This is the non-Covid part of what would previously have been the weekly Covid post. About half of the content written for the post this week is being withheld for topic-level future posts, both with longer time horizons (e.g. policy roundups don’t need to be weekly and should ben... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fFJnofHqbyAvr7qbn/weekly-non-covid-news-1-10-13-22 |
# Against the normative realist's wager
(Cross-posted from [my website](https://joecarlsmith.com/2022/10/09/against-the-normative-realists-wager). Audio version [here](https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/11464432-against-the-normative-realist-s-wager), or search "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rtyx3Nu5vsG7ndBHF/against-the-normative-realist-s-wager |
# The Vitalik Buterin Fellowship in AI Existential Safety is open for applications!
This is a linkpost for[ https://grants.futureoflife.org/](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgrants.futureoflife.org%2F)
*Epistemic status: Describing the fellowship that we are a part of and sharing some sugges... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/msbgaS5QakneaHfer/the-vitalik-buterin-fellowship-in-ai-existential-safety-is |
# Vehicle Platooning - a real world examination of the difficulties in coordination
Due to aerodynamic drag effects one of the most often talked about methods of increasing the efficiency of road transport is for vehicles, whether trucks or passenger cars, to platoon together. Usually it's proposed that multiple vehic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JXs69LyEHXtMdoH8A/vehicle-platooning-a-real-world-examination-of-the |
# Greed Is the Root of This Evil
The SGD's greed, to be specific.
Consider a ML model being trained end-to-end from initialization to zero loss. Every individual update to its parameters is calculated to move it in the direction of maximal local improvement to its performance. It doesn't take the shortest path from w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ThtZrHooK7En9mcZr/greed-is-the-root-of-this-evil |
# Contra shard theory, in the context of the diamond maximizer problem
A bunch of my response to shard theory is a generalization of how [niceness is unnatural](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krHDNc7cDvfEL8z9a/niceness-is-unnatural). In a similar fashion, the other “shards” that the shard theory folk want to learn ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Aet2mbnK7GDDfrEQu/contra-shard-theory-in-the-context-of-the-diamond-maximizer |
# Another problem with AI confinement: ordinary CPUs can work as radio transmitters
Excerpts:
> Computer tech expert William Entriken has created a C library that can make a computer emit radio waves even if the device doesn't include any radio transmission hardware.
>
> His program, called System Bus Radio, is writ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ddPu9yh65yLmMzxep/another-problem-with-ai-confinement-ordinary-cpus-can-work |
# Counterarguments to the basic AI x-risk case
*(Crossposted from* [*AI Impacts Blog*](https://aiimpacts.org/counterarguments-to-the-basic-ai-x-risk-case/)*)*
This is going to be a list of holes I see in the basic argument for existential risk from superhuman AI systems[^1^](https://aiimpacts.org/counterarguments-to-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LDRQ5Zfqwi8GjzPYG/counterarguments-to-the-basic-ai-x-risk-case |
# Instrumental convergence: scale and physical interactions
Summary of this post
--------------------
This is the third post in a three-part [sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HBMLmW9WsgsdZWg4R) on instrumental convergence in multi-agent RL. Read [Part 1](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pGvM95EfNXwBzjNC... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nisaAr7wMDiMLc2so/instrumental-convergence-scale-and-physical-interactions |
# Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
### *With support from the FTX Future Fund, the project features a public forecasting tournament and a Pro Forecaster initiative delivering 1, 3, 10, 30, and 100-year predictions*
 (as opposed to hedgehogs):
Paying more attention to easily-evaluated claims that don't matter much, at the expense of hard-to-evaluate claims that matter a lot.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gJtbrjtPzsuRx8tNK/a-common-failure-for-foxes |
# I learn better when I frame learning as Vengeance for losses incurred through ignorance, and you might too
THE OBSERVATION
My main point is in the title: I have found that when I consciously learn "with a vengeance", aiming to avenge whatever I lost because I have not learnt the thing earlier, I learn markedly bette... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YRzFcubbrvuhb9rtk/i-learn-better-when-i-frame-learning-as-vengeance-for-losses |
# Best resource to go from "typical smart tech-savvy person" to "person who gets AGI risk urgency"?
Background
==========
Most tech-savvy people today see AI as a cool tech trend like the internet / smartphones / crypto / virtual reality. The claim "AGI is pretty likely to kill you and your loved ones in your lifetim... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6YpWggFWdzfCwmGqL/best-resource-to-go-from-typical-smart-tech-savvy-person-to |
# Building the Loft Beds
A few weeks ago I posted [some plans for](https://www.jefftk.com/p/planning-a-loft-bed) [kids' loft beds](https://www.jefftk.com/p/another-loft-bed); they're now built! Not exactly following the plans, but that's ok. Pictures:
[](https://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ziP62W25nTedGqwk6/building-the-loft-beds |
# Cruxes in Katja Grace's Counterarguments
In the recent [counterarguments to the basic AI x-risk case](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LDRQ5Zfqwi8GjzPYG/counterarguments-to-the-basic-ai-x-risk-case), Katja Grace mentions a basic argument for existential risk from superhuman AI, consisting of three claims, and proceed... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ikci6rbzY5iznnRZd/cruxes-in-katja-grace-s-counterarguments |
# Halifax, NS – Monthly Rationalist, EA, and ACX Meetup Kick-Off
In the interest of growing the LW/EA/ACX community in Halifax, we will be hosting meetups on the last Saturday of each month. The format is friendly, unstructured discussion (future iterations could emphasise particular topics). Old hands and newcomers a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/zsF4Gjcc5otF5soAx/halifax-ns-monthly-rationalist-ea-and-acx-meetup-kick-off |
# Age changes what you care about
\[Possible trigger warning for discussion of mortality.\]
I've been on LessWrong for a very long time. My first exposure to the power of AI was in the mid 1980's, and I was easily at "shock level 4" at the turn of the millennium thanks to various pieces of fiction, newsgroups, and d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YpyW97jRbtvBAncAr/age-changes-what-you-care-about |
# Luck based medicine: my resentful story of becoming a medical miracle
You know those health books with “miracle cure” in the subtitle? The ones that always start with a preface about a particular patient who was completely hopeless until they tried the supplement/meditation technique/healing crystal that the book is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fFY2HeC9i2Tx8FEnK/luck-based-medicine-my-resentful-story-of-becoming-a-medical |
# Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors (James Choi, NBER)
This econ paper about personal finance was featured in a [recent *Freakonomics Radio* episode](https://freakonomics.com/podcast/are-personal-finance-gurus-giving-you-bad-advice/). It compares the financial advice in popular personal finance b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dstC9b2kAbiiTeAKY/popular-personal-financial-advice-versus-the-professors |
# Maximal lotteries for value learning
Suppose Ann asks robot Bob to buy her favorite fruit. Bob doesn't know what Ann's favorite fruit is, but he knows that Ann likes either apples, bananas or oranges, each with probability 1/3, and doesn't like the other two fruits at all. At the groceries, for his money Bob can buy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gDrSf2ccJNbbTPuG9/maximal-lotteries-for-value-learning |
# The harms you don't see
* Падшие ангелы рядом с лицами старых солдат*
* Ждут одного лишь приказа: вернуться… Вернуться назад*
*Чтобы собрать все знамёна, стрелы, обломки мечей,*
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kwWKFqXEkpgKJbqFF/the-harms-you-don-t-see |
# GD’s Implicit Bias on Separable Data
*TLDR: This post goes through the intuition behind why using gradient descent to fit a linear model to linearly separable data will learn a maximum-margin decision boundary. It’s a simple example of an implicit bias of gradient descent, and also extends (in some form) to more com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BGp6nSEdBawM3iFxT/gd-s-implicit-bias-on-separable-data |
# Space
*Space begets space*
* * *
**Part III**
Like an anaemic finding iron, a week into this process I had a profound sense that I'd gained something in which I'd been chronically deficient. I started calling whatever it was that I'd gained, "Space".
Space is a condition of abundant uninterrupted time, with a fr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EdokhvmYra2w8eHzw/space |
# Voting Theory Introduction
Sequence Introduction
=====================
This is the first post in a [sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/gnAaZtdwjDBBRpDmw) in which I will propose a new voting system!
In this post, I introduce the framework and notation, and give some background on voting theory.
In the next pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JbRkDvwXh39bEx3xw/voting-theory-introduction |
# Maximal Lotteries
Probabilistic Voting Theory
===========================
Recall that in the [last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JbRkDvwXh39bEx3xw/voting-theory-introduction) I said that a voting system is a function that takes in a distribution on utility functions on a set of candidates, and produces a di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hR72Jzttfooww3dQR/maximal-lotteries |
# AI Safety Ideas: A collaborative AI safety research platform
**TLDR**; We present the AI safety ideas and research platform [**AI Safety Ideas**](https://aisi.ai) in open alpha. Add and explore research ideas on the website here: [aisafetyideas.com](https://aisafetyideas.com/).
AI Safety Ideas has been accessible f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iAkJ3zzAqgZfwfg3e/ai-safety-ideas-a-collaborative-ai-safety-research-platform |
# Maximal Lottery-Lotteries
In the [last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hR72Jzttfooww3dQR/maximal-lotteries) we saw how by introducing lotteries, we could resolve one of the major conflicts in voting theory, between Condorcet and consistency (while also satisfying participation and clone independence). Now, we ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwrNprXfEzeQ2cy3d/maximal-lottery-lotteries |
# Open Problem in Voting Theory
In the [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwrNprXfEzeQ2cy3d/maximal-lottery-lotteries), I presented the concept of a maximal lottery-lottery as follows:
We start with a finite set of candidates $C$ and a distribution $V\in \Delta(C\rightarrow [0,1])$ on utility functions o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CAKZsP2v7SqqEExz9/open-problem-in-voting-theory |
# They gave LLMs access to physics simulators
Over at Google, large language models have been plugged into physics simulators to help them share a world model with their human interlocutors, resulting in big performance gains. They call it Mind's Eye.
This is how the authors describe the work:
> Correct and comp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SbadvzWbufzX9iWJf/they-gave-llms-access-to-physics-simulators |
# EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
*Supported by Rethink Priorities*
This is part of a weekly series - you can see the full collection [here.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/W4fhpuN26naxGCBbN) The first post includes some details on purpose and methodology.
If you'd like to receive these summar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LtgHeTErHthwrZnkB/ea-and-lw-forums-weekly-summary-10-16-oct-22 |
# Is GPT-N bounded by human capabilities? No.
I recently talked with someone about large language models and the risks they pose. They suggested that LLMs would be bounded by human intelligence/knowledge because LLMs learn from the internet text that humans have written.
Now, this was a very casual conversation (smal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bZbLnr7qwuEBpTPuF/is-gpt-n-bounded-by-human-capabilities-no |
# Why Weren't Hot Air Balloons Invented Sooner?
"A medieval European painting by Giotto Di Bon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bvqC4Ci7rXq4sN9df/why-weren-t-hot-air-balloons-invented-sooner |
# Vertical Flutes
The standard (" [transverse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transverse_flute)") flute has pretty terrible ergonomics: your arms are way out to the side. Most woodwinds use a much more natural playing position where the arms are comfortably in front of you, including some (" [end-blown](https://en.wiki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t9CzDpuYeB5fD9jaf/vertical-flutes |
# Decision theory does not imply that we get to have nice things
(*Note: I wrote this with editing help from Rob and Eliezer. Eliezer's responsible for a few of the paragraphs.*)
A common confusion I see in the tiny fragment of the world that knows about [logical decision theory](https://arbital.com/p/logical_dt/)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rP66bz34crvDudzcJ/decision-theory-does-not-imply-that-we-get-to-have-nice |
# Audition to perform in Bay Secular Solstice
We’re looking to get new people involved with Secular Solstice this year! We need orators to give speeches, and singers and instrumentalists of all kinds to lead singalongs.
Solstice will be on December 17th in SF or Oakland, and there will be a dress rehearsal in the wee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BqWyo7Lmzs9ekJi7S/audition-to-perform-in-bay-secular-solstice |
# Science of Deep Learning - a technical agenda
I have written down a long list of alignment ideas that I’d be interested in working on. The ideas roughly boil down to “To make progress on alignment, we need to understand Deep Learning models and the process by which they arrive at their final parameters in much more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bumgqvRjTadFFkoAd/science-of-deep-learning-a-technical-agenda |
# How to Take Over the Universe (in Three Easy Steps)
[EA-Forum crosspost](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8tsFNQ9qdX2c3KufJ/how-to-take-over-the-universe-in-three-easy-steps)
*This is the script of Rational Animations' video linked above. It's about how to take over the universe with amounts of energy a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DvQ7cYxhnrZtWngvW/how-to-take-over-the-universe-in-three-easy-steps |
# Is GitHub Copilot in legal trouble?
This is basically a crosspost for [https://githubcopilotinvestigation.com/.](https://githubcopilotinvestigation.com/.) I noticed that some folks in California are considering a lawsuit against Microsoft/OpenAI.
tl;dr:
* Copilot is trained on open source software.
* Copilot ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GYQijiGa7Bb9ADzvD/is-github-copilot-in-legal-trouble |
# Untapped Potential at 13-18
The Western world is facing a crisis of **stretched adolescence,** keeping children exclusively "learning" for longer than necessary.
Imagine that you are a student, around 14 years old. You fall into the top 5%, not the extremely motivated startup founder or math prodigy that you hear ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mLp8sLw2xggA7Bjd3/untapped-potential-at-13-18-1 |
# A conversation about Katja's counterarguments to AI risk
This post is a transcript of a conversation between [Ege Erdil](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/ege-erdil) and [Ronny Fernandez](https://twitter.com/RatOrthodox), recorded by me. The participants talked about [a recent post by Katja Grace](https://www.lesswron... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iXuJLARFBZbaBGxW3/a-conversation-about-katja-s-counterarguments-to-ai-risk |
# How To Make Prediction Markets Useful For Alignment Work
So, I’m an alignment researcher. And I have a lot of prediction-flavored questions which steer my day-to-day efforts. Which recent interpretability papers will turn out, in hindsight a year or two from now, to have been basically correct and high-value? Will t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oxSX9XDQHLu5YLpaD/how-to-make-prediction-markets-useful-for-alignment-work |
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