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# The Twitter Files: Covid Edition
[At long last, this week we got the Covid Edition of The Twitter Files](https://twitter.com/davidzweig/status/1607378386338340867).
I focus here only on this edition, and _not_ focusing on Musk or the Twitter Files more generally. Is there a there there?
Seems like the answer is, y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CCSDWeajedGhJWydu/the-twitter-files-covid-edition |
# Human sexuality as an interesting case study of alignment
*This is cross-posted from my* [*personal blog*](https://www.beren.io/2022-11-27-Human-sexuality-as-test-case-for-alignment/)
**Epistemic status:** *mostly interesting questions.*
Here I want to bring attention to what I think is an extremely impressive cas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qX3SjauHEjjzbDApy/human-sexuality-as-an-interesting-case-study-of-alignment |
# 10 Years of LessWrong
*\[I appreciate that less wrong has a very strong norm against navel gazing. Let's keep it that way. The purpose of this post is merely to reflect upon and highlight valuable tools and mental habits in our toolkit.\]*
The rationalsphere propelled me to where I am today by giving me tools that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LQjJCgAxMasT4KNTs/10-years-of-lesswrong |
# Beyond Rewards and Values: A Non-dualistic Approach to Universal Intelligence
*(This is my first post on Lesswrong, including some thoughts on topics I have read in this year. Please leave your comment on them. Thanks.)*
**Abstract**
Building an AI system that aligns with human values is believed to be a two-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NKbF8RvNiQyfWoz8e/beyond-rewards-and-values-a-non-dualistic-approach-to |
# My thoughts on OpenAI's alignment plan
*Epistemic Status: This is my first attempt at writing up my thoughts on an alignment plan. I spent about a week on it. *
*I’m grateful to Olivia Jimenez, Thomas Larsen, and Nicholas Dupuis for feedback.*
A few months ago, OpenAI released its [plan for alignment](https://open... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FBG7AghvvP7fPYzkx/my-thoughts-on-openai-s-alignment-plan-1 |
# Is ChatGPT TAI?
Do you count ChatGPT and/or other similar systems (e.g. codex) as transformative AI? I would think so since it has a very fast adoption (million users in 5 days) and is apparently sufficiently more useful on some queries than Google that they had to declare "code red" - a possible threat to their co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5vmNFRQMKxzwNm7QZ/is-chatgpt-tai |
# Evidence on recursive self-improvement from current ML
*The goal of this post is to start a collaborative analysis. Please post papers or links or other evidence I have missed in comments. I want to get some of Lesswrong's collective mind focused on this question.*
A core component of the classical case for AI r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/byKF3mnaNRrbkDPWv/evidence-on-recursive-self-improvement-from-current-ml |
# Christmas Microscopy
I got the kids a [cheap little microscope](https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B081F64YLB/) for Christmas that attaches to your computer. While we've played with microscopes before, it's much more fun having one where everyone can see at the same time. Here are some things we saw:
A pine needle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qnazakWbQhF2fLq6h/christmas-microscopy |
# Extreme risk neutrality isn't always wrong
Risk neutrality is the idea that a 50% chance of $2 is equally valuable as a 100% chance of $1. This is a highly unusual preference, but it sometimes makes sense:
> *Exampleville is infested with an always-fatal parasite. All 1,024 residents have the worm.*
>
> *For each ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EvvFPSMGwWRcn6hbg/extreme-risk-neutrality-isn-t-always-wrong |
# What career advice do you give to software engineers?
I am a defendant of the idea that we have already achieved [rudimentary AGIs](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mypCA3AzopBhnYB6P/language-models-are-nearly-agis-but-we-don-t-notice-it) with modern LLMs (as much of a hot take this is), and even though the path to s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bzJRdhHJtZcyFpknG/what-career-advice-do-you-give-to-software-engineers |
# The Feeling of Idea Scarcity
Here’s a story you may recognize. There's a bright up-and-coming young person - let's call her Alice. Alice has a cool idea. It seems like maybe an important idea, a big idea, an idea which might matter. A new and valuable idea. It’s the first time Alice has come up with a high-potential... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mfPHTWsFhzmcXw8ta/the-feeling-of-idea-scarcity |
# 200 COP in MI: Interpreting Algorithmic Problems
*This is the fourth post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability. *[*Start here*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LbrPTJ4fmABEdEnLf/200-concrete-open-problems-in-mechanistic-interpretability)*, then read in any order. If yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ejtFsvyhRkMofKAFy/200-cop-in-mi-interpreting-algorithmic-problems |
# Slack matters more than any outcome
About a month ago Ben Pace [invited me](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kcoqwHscvQTx4xgwa/here-s-the-exit?commentId=q89d7avGx9HDD9ycu) to expand on a point I'd made in a comment.
The gist is this:
* Addictions can cause people to accomplish things they wouldn't accomplish othe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xEHy9oivifjgFbnvc/slack-matters-more-than-any-outcome |
# Monitoring devices I have loved
Every once in a while a measurement device improves my life a lot at little cost. This post is an attempt to share those data points and gather more, so we can all get a bunch of free gains.
The typical shape of problems solved by measurement devices is as follows: there's something ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RkSwLcL2MkChtBLng/monitoring-devices-i-have-loved |
# 'simulator' framing and confusions about LLMs
Post status: pretty rough + unpolished, thought it might be worthwhile getting this out anyway
I feel like I've encountered various people having misunderstandings of LLMs that seem to be related to using the 'simulator' framing. I'm probably being horrendously unc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dYnHLWMXCYdm9xu5j/simulator-framing-and-confusions-about-llms |
# Investing for a World Transformed by AI
AI looks likely to cause major changes to society over the next decade.
Financial markets have mostly not reacted to this forecast yet. I expect
it will be at least a few months, maybe even years, before markets have
a large reaction to AI. I\'d much rather buy too early ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jvHLBEXXEtZtt4KFP/investing-for-a-world-transformed-by-ai |
# The Roots of Progress's 2022 in review
2022 was another big year for me and for The Roots of Progress. This is my annual review—the one post a year (other than timely [announcements](https://rootsofprogress.org/posts#announcements)) where I go meta and give an update on this project. If you want stuff like this more... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/im9NWLAyEwrKw5zLn/the-roots-of-progress-s-2022-in-review |
# Recursive Middle Manager Hell
I think Zvi's [Immoral Mazes](https://www.lesswrong.com/sequences/kNANcHLNtJt5qeuSS) sequence is really important, but comes with more worldview-assumptions than are necessary to make the points actionable. I conceptualize Zvi as arguing for multiple hypotheses. In this post I want to a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pHfPvb4JMhGDr4B7n/recursive-middle-manager-hell |
# What percent of people work in moral mazes?
*Epistemic status: A quick* [*Fact Post*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sdx6A6yLByRRs8iLY/fact-posts-how-and-why) *on moral mazes. This is me trying to get my hands on some data and think through stuff, not meant as a definitive reference.*
I wanted a sense of the propo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sJB8akejF2N6xK2ou/what-percent-of-people-work-in-moral-mazes |
# woke offline, anti-woke online
Like most people , I live in many different spheres which only barely interact. My community is very different from my workplace, is very different from the people I hang out with on the internet, is very different from my family.
Whilst my viewpoints don't change depending on who I'm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MraxHEZSprEL9j28y/woke-offline-anti-woke-online |
# A Löbian argument pattern for implicit reasoning in natural language: Löbian party invitations
*Related to:* [*Löb's Lemma: an easier approach to Löb's Theorem*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AkGvmJ6WE5sXjuwnC/loeb-s-lemma-an-easier-approach-to-loeb-s-theorem)*.*
Natural language models are really taking off, and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QsZ3ycfRYs2ps5sNA/a-loebian-argument-pattern-for-implicit-reasoning-in-natural |
# Better New Year's Goals through Aligning the Elephant and the Rider
*Meta: This content is unlikely to be new to veteran LWers, but rather represents a collection of what I have found to be the most actionable and useful tools and techniques for **quickly** bolstering a goal or resolution and increasing my odds of s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iJy335ve4NuzzCyBF/better-new-year-s-goals-through-aligning-the-elephant-and |
# Would it be good or bad for the US military to get involved in AI risk?
Meant as a neutral question. I'm not sure whether this would be good or bad on net:
Suppose key elements of the US military took x-risk from misaligned strong AI very seriously. Specifically, I mean:
* Key scientists at the Defense Threat Re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dTWevKRiMM4ptcjjg/would-it-be-good-or-bad-for-the-us-military-to-get-involved |
# The Thingness of Things
*[Metadata: crossposted from [https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2022/08/the-thingness-of-things.html](https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2022/08/the-thingness-of-things.html). I'm fairly likely to not respond to comments promptly. If you're especially interested in chatting, my gmail address is: tsvibtc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9EevrzBcDMap6dbs/the-thingness-of-things |
# Sail Over Mountains of ICE...
~ *constant winds carry ships FAST on Arctic ice-highways, easily made!* ~
**TL;DR** — [Ice Ships](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE8mCZOmrEo) are [frickin’ insane](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjJ9hwthYVo). With a mast and sail, a wide flat body, and innumerable skates, these sail... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ihwD8H8bCF8ZJ6zjz/sail-over-mountains-of-ice |
# My first year in AI alignment
2022 was a pretty surprising year for me. In the beginning, I had just finished going through the [Recurse Center](https://www.recurse.com/) retreat, and was expecting to go back into software engineering. As it turned out, I spent almost all of it getting increasingly committed to work... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rTJrqtDLxAPxiW3sk/my-first-year-in-ai-alignment |
# Pacing: inexplicably good
Pacing—walking repeatedly over the same ground—[often](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/oxford-circles-and-planes-19-10-29) feels ineffably good while I’m doing it, but then I forget about it for ages, so I thought I’d write about it here.
I don’t mean just going for an ineffic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/84bsHSvzKP3KPw8jc/pacing-inexplicably-good |
# The ultimate limits of alignment will determine the shape of the long term future
*Epistemic status: shower thoughts*
*This is crossposted from my* [*personal blog*](https://www.beren.io/2022-08-16-Ultimate-limits-alignment/)
The alignment problem is not new. Humanity and evolution have been grappling with the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sjbhPx2cyKQra9S9J/the-ultimate-limits-of-alignment-will-determine-the-shape-of |
# Opportunity Cost Blackmail
If you are utterly powerless, with no money, skills, status, or friends, survival already takes all your time and energy.
Yet I’m not in that situation — and you’re probably not either. Our circumstances surely vary, but we have at least some power — we can pump towards certain outcomes, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qhxexho2mFjLnZ2nS/opportunity-cost-blackmail |
# Induction heads - illustrated
*Many thanks to everyone who provided helpful feedback, particularly Aryan Bhatt and Lawrence Chan!*
TL;DR
-----
**This is my illustrated walkthrough of induction heads.** I created it in order to concisely capture all the information about how the circuit works.
There are 2 version... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TvrfY4c9eaGLeyDkE/induction-heads-illustrated |
# Results from the AI testing hackathon
We ([Apart Research](https://apartresearch.com)) ran a [hackathon for AI testing research projects](https://itch.io/jam/aitest) with 11 projects submitted by 34 participants between the 16th and 18th December. Here we share the winning projects. See them all [here](https://align... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kHt9e6hzTnxfm3Em3/results-from-the-ai-testing-hackathon |
# Soft optimization makes the value target bigger
*Produced As Part Of The* [*SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars*](https://www.serimats.org/) *Program 2.1, mentored by* [*John Wentworth*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth)*.*
Summary
-------
We can solve [Goodhart's Curse](https://arbital.com/p/goodharts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9fL22eBJMtyCLvL7j/soft-optimization-makes-the-value-target-bigger |
# Why don't Rationalists use bidets?
I've been to many Rat&EA group houses, offices, and other venues both official and unofficial around the Bay Area, and I can't recall ever seeing a bidet. And because I think bidets are superior technology, this is pretty confusing to me. Why might this be?
Possible explanations f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Ts6DBvGxqYojkBSX/why-don-t-rationalists-use-bidets |
# Prediction Markets for Science
*Epistemic status: untested combination of ideas I think are individually solid. This is intended to be a quick description of some obvious ideas rather than a deeply justified novel contribution; I'll cite some things but not be especially careful to review all prior work.*
Predictio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iXMWuG65KhiK8KxwL/prediction-markets-for-science |
# On the Importance of Open Sourcing Reward Models
*Huge thanks to Chaska Yamane, Abhay Singh and Arpit Kalla for feedback and discussions*
Introduction
------------
The recent success of ChatGPT lays bare the power of [Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03741) (RLHF). Previous mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nTy48zvBPPttoLhdJ/on-the-importance-of-open-sourcing-reward-models |
# Large language models can provide "normative assumptions" for learning human preferences
In a [past result](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) I demonstrated the impossibility of deducing the goals of a (potentially) irrational agent from their behaviour. To do that deduction, one needs to add extra assumptions - ass... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JSkqkgYcyYt8oHsFi/large-language-models-can-provide-normative-assumptions-for |
# Preparing for Less Privacy
An [old privacy post](https://www.jefftk.com/p/giving-up-on-privacy) of mine recently got a lot of discussion [on Hacker News](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34173058). It seems people took me to be saying something like:
> Other people are foolish to be worried about privacy. If th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GZ65zECCikbA29m8f/preparing-for-less-privacy |
# Review of “Make People Better”
Last night I watched [“Make People Better”](https://makepeoplebetterfilm.com/), a documentary about He Jiankui’s gene-edited babies. It was a decent documentary (if a bit overdramatized, with lots of generic footage of labs and Chinese streets)[^hej4mzk0fhg]. Although it did a pretty g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ufmWDhJJpHR9gZkLb/review-of-make-people-better |
# Default Sort for Shortforms is Very Bad; How Do I Change It?
# Complaint
As a user of my shortform, I don't find ordering my posts by "Top" useful. I have to always change it to "New" every time; that's a trivial inconvenience.
Often I want to link to shortform content elsewhere or write shortform content that b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Reihu7aHAEZW7AW2/default-sort-for-shortforms-is-very-bad-how-do-i-change-it |
# Knottiness
*(low-effort post)*
Let's say there's a bunch of factors that influence how well you're able to articulate yourself in a specific domain of your life.
One factor is simply having the language to express yourself. Another factor is having the practiced perceptual acuity of getting your bearings in that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oeEHuKLfJdngFEcgN/knottiness |
# MacArthur BART (Filk)
*To the tune of "MacArthur Park" with apologies to Jimmy Webb.*
BART was never waiting for us, dear
We ran to catch the train
But we missed it, our last chance
MacArthur BART is frightening in the dark
All the lights they flicker on and off
Someone left their backpack on the train
I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fjKap3xS3sKwvvRQ8/macarthur-bart-filk |
# Linear Algebra Done Right, Axler
*Epistemic status: A brisk walkthrough of (what I take to be) the highlights of this book's contents.*
The big one for mathematically understanding ML!
The idea responsible for getting me excited about linear algebra is:
> *Linear maps are the homomorphisms between vector spaces.*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kBCiuA3ckFR5QXXja/linear-algebra-done-right-axler |
#
[Simulators seminar sequence] #1 Background & shared assumptions
*Meta: Over the past few months, we've held a seminar series on the* [*Simulators theory*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators) *by janus. As the theory is actively under development, the purpose of the series is to disco... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nmMorGE4MS4txzr8q/simulators-seminar-sequence-1-background-and-shared |
# The need for speed in web frameworks?
Recently I've been spending a lot of time investigating JavaScript web frameworks that use server-side rendering (SSR). I've noticed that there are a lot of features that are ultimately about improving performance.[^1]
- Combining SSR with follow up client-side navigation instea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QYGtJDpAYDmJ6Zopf/the-need-for-speed-in-web-frameworks |
# 200 COP in MI: Exploring Polysemanticity and Superposition
**Important Note**: Since writing this, there's been a lot of exciting work on understanding superposition via [training sparse autoencoders](https://transformer-circuits.pub/2023/monosemantic-features/index.html) to take features out of superposition. I rec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o6ptPu7arZrqRCxyz/200-cop-in-mi-exploring-polysemanticity-and-superposition |
# I have thousands of copies of HPMOR in Russian. How to use them with the most impact?
(Crossposted [from the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AmA9gQMhqAQW8bC4W/i-have-thousands-of-copies-of-hpmor-in-russian-how-to-use))
As a result of a crowdfunding campaign a couple of years ago, I printed 21k c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6qkBM73ea5dmJm5nY/i-have-thousands-of-copies-of-hpmor-in-russian-how-to-use |
# How to eat potato chips while typing
Chopsticks.
*.*
*Epistemic status: Approximating the discount rates was very difficult; I decided on them after several discussions with people working in relevant fields. I expect the audien... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KbRxdBCcJqwtbiPzm/whisper-s-wild-implications-1 |
# Monthly Roundup #2
It’s that time again. This is everything that doesn’t fall into a category and isn’t worthy of its own post.
### Bad News
Scam sophistication, especially against the most vulnerable like the mentally impaired, [continues to ramp up](https://twitter.com/selentelechia/status/1604860635904237569) a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WzcqBQTm2kiFQRxM7/monthly-roundup-2 |
# Effectively self-studying over the Internet
The Internet is a great invention. Just about everything in humanity’s knowledge can be found on the Internet: with just a few keystrokes, you can find dozens of excellent quality textbooks, YouTube videos and blog posts about any topic you want to learn. The information i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hbmdfRh9K4HSmfLFY/effectively-self-studying-over-the-internet |
# {M|Im|Am}oral Mazes - any large-scale counterexamples?
Raemon's [recent post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pHfPvb4JMhGDr4B7n/recursive-middle-manager-hell) reminded me that I'm unsure how best to think about bureaucracies and apparent organizational friction, and that I keep meaning to explore why something about... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A4guHBMPucDHB3FLs/m-or-im-or-am-oral-mazes-any-large-scale-counterexamples |
# Kolb's: an approach to consciously get better at anything
*Note: this serves as the first post in a sequence on how to efficiently become a great alignment researcher. I do not claim that I am a great researcher myself nor do I claim to have the best methods to become one, but I do hope this sequence at least margin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/daB3jbRrbi5FG8xK7/kolb-s-an-approach-to-consciously-get-better-at-anything |
# Touch reality as soon as possible (when doing machine learning research)
**TL;DR:** *I think new machine learning researchers often make one of two kinds of mistakes: not making enough contact with reality, and being too reluctant to form gears-level models of ML phenomena. Stereotypically, LW/AF researchers tend to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fqryrxnvpSr5w2dDJ/touch-reality-as-soon-as-possible-when-doing-machine |
# My Advice for Incoming SERI MATS Scholars
I have participated in SERI MATS 2.0 in John's stream. Here is some advice based on my experience.
Be Nice
========
The AI alignment community is pretty small. If you are an ass, everybody will know that you are an ass. The same holds to a lesser extent for being nice. Wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5mTCuP7iPt7Ta6CBe/my-advice-for-incoming-seri-mats-scholars |
# Talking to God
*(low-effort post)*
The following is *not supposed to be an account of all religion*, only a very specific thing that happens sometimes.
In logic, a "modality" is a qualifier you can put on a statement, which changes the rules for interacting with that statement. For example, "possibly X", "necessar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o5hbpFxmHR3QHtse4/talking-to-god |
# An ML interpretation of Shard Theory
*Crossposted from my* [*personal blog*](https://www.beren.io/2022-12-05-ML-Interpretation-Shard-Theory/)
**Epistemic Status:*** I have spent a fair bit of time reading the core Shard Theory posts and trying to understand it. I also have a background in RL as well as the computat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oFGPYfPqdbNacfJ5H/an-ml-interpretation-of-shard-theory |
# "AI" is an indexical
*I recently started a blog called AI Watchtower. I plan to write essays on the latest developments in AI and AI safety. The intended audience of AI Watchtower is mostly people interested in AI who don't have a technical background in it. If you're interested, you can subscribe* [*here*](https://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4rcXXDNGqwTC58iHx/ai-is-an-indexical |
# Causal representation learning as a technique to prevent goal misgeneralization
_Summary: This is a submission for the [goal misgeneralization contest](https://www.alignmentawards.com/goal) organized by AI Alignment Awards, as well as the third iteration of some slowly improving AI Safety research agenda that I aim ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vzLNnc59LyzqDCyJC/causal-representation-learning-as-a-technique-to-prevent |
# Ritual as the only tool for overwriting values and goals
*Updated on Jan 14, 2023 to address comments by kithpendragon, Richard_Kennaway, DonyChristie, Kaj Sotala and others.*
**Introduction**
================
Here are two reasonable sentences:
1) “The brain makes predictions.”
2) “Rituals teach us values.”
Yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JStywufxwQzeubDcX/ritual-as-the-only-tool-for-overwriting-values-and-goals |
# Basic Facts about Language Model Internals
*This post was written as part of the work done at *[*Conjecture*](https://www.conjecture.dev/)*.*
*As mentioned in *[*our retrospective*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bXTNKjsD4y3fabhwR/conjecture-a-retrospective-after-8-months-of-work-1)*, while also producing long and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PDLfpRwSynu73mxGw/basic-facts-about-language-model-internals-1 |
# From Simon’s ant to machine learning, a parable
[Simon’s ant is a well-known thought experiment](https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=%22simon's+ant%22&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8) from Chapter 3, “The Psychology of Thinking: Embedding Artifice in Nature,” in Herbert A. Simon (1981), [*The Sciences of the Arti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zEngkwxsuCN4XWwN/from-simon-s-ant-to-machine-learning-a-parable |
# 2022 was the year AGI arrived (Just don't call it that)
As of 2022, AI has finally passed the intelligence of an average human being.
For example on the SAT it scores in the [52nd percentile](https://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HguqQSY8mR7NxGopc/2022-was-the-year-agi-arrived-just-don-t-call-it-that |
# What's up with ChatGPT and the Turing Test?
ChatGPT looks like it would pass the [Turing Test](https://www.reddit.com/r/xkcd/comments/zd6wxs/chatgpt_feels_close_to_passing_the_turing_test/), the gold standard of benchmarks measuring whether an AI has reached human-level intelligence. Yet Googling around, it doesn't... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kqzKjprjXaEWeLuy9/what-s-up-with-chatgpt-and-the-turing-test |
# 200 COP in MI: Analysing Training Dynamics
*This is the sixth post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability. *[*Start here*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LbrPTJ4fmABEdEnLf/200-concrete-open-problems-in-mechanistic-interpretability)*, then read in any order. If you want ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hHaXzJQi6SKkeXzbg/200-cop-in-mi-analysing-training-dynamics |
# Progress links and tweets, 2023-01-04
**Progress Forum**
------------------
* [Building Fast and Slow Part III: Design of the World Trade Center](https://progressforum.org/posts/JGuTKS2xaPAoobbMt/building-fast-and-slow-part-iii-design-of-the-world-trade) (Brian Potter)
* [Why pessimism sounds smart](https://pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R7PeLbeYRuLaEYqvq/progress-links-and-tweets-2023-01-04 |
# Conversational canyons
Conversations are streams: they pass by without leaving much behind. But if you add a notebook—if you write down short summaries of what you talk about so you can return to it in later conversations and expand—then you have a landscape for the conversation to flow through, and this changes it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MBEFbNuiGxw8tbh2b/conversational-canyons |
# Opening Facebook Links Externally
When I'm on my phone and click a link in Facebook I want it to open in my normal browser, but it defaults to an "in-app" browser. I really don't like in-app browsers, and I think [Alex Russell's explanation](https://infrequently.org/2021/07/hobsons-browser/) of their problems is ver... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tks4xkdvdhsGM2RnM/opening-facebook-links-externally |
# Contra Common Knowledge
*This post assumes some background knowledge about "common knowledge", a technical term in philosophy. See* [*the tag page*](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/common-knowledge) *for an introduction and a list of LessWrong essays on the subject.*
*Epistemic effort: basically reading the* [*SEP ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bG8u3HDZ5AQDJhtTk/contra-common-knowledge |
# When you plan according to your AI timelines, should you put more weight on the median future, or the median future | eventual AI alignment success? ⚖️
This is a question I'm puzzling over, and my current answer is that when it comes to decisions about AI alignment strategy, I will put more planning weight on median... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gkoBPNLWgAZJTGJaM/when-you-plan-according-to-your-ai-timelines-should-you-put |
# The 2021 Review Phase
*(Apologies for this post being quite late – I got sick just prior to the holidays, and then had a surprisingly eventful holidays)*
We've wrapped up the nominations phase for the 2021 Review. 139 people have participated so far, casting 1815 votes and writing 72 reviews.
Now we're in the Rev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/daJvav8fPWD7MuzqL/the-2021-review-phase |
# Infohazards vs Fork Hazards
I think actual infohazardous information is fairly rare. Far more common is a fork: you have some idea or statement, you don't know whether it's true or false (typically leaning false), and you kow that *either* it's false *or* it's infohazardous. Examples include unvalidated insights abo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HvtHak2cDQKwSsjGB/infohazards-vs-fork-hazards |
# PSA: reward is part of the habit loop too
The usual setup of a habit is
1. cue
2. craving
3. routine
4. _**reward**_
Among my social circle, rewarding oneself seems to be lost by the wayside. Sadly funny for a crowd of people into reinforcement learning, since they're trying to skip the reinforcement and wonde... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9WhahxurKL8KADA53/psa-reward-is-part-of-the-habit-loop-too |
# Running by Default
In video games it's common for characters to [run by default](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/RunDontWalk): it's faster, why wouldn't you? I think this is also a good approach to apply in real life, at least over short distances. It saves you time and it's a bit of exercise. Over prett... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4y3qcbnhSmXrk6p34/running-by-default |
# Covid 1/5/23: Various XBB Takes
The majority of this week’s post is various people doing their Obligatory Thread on Latest Variant, in this case XBB. All reach broadly compatible conclusions:
1. XBB is the next variant and rapidly taking over, and this is normal.
2. XBB is not more deadly.
3. Our existing protec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kqihvbjBYPww5rT2y/covid-1-5-23-various-xbb-takes |
# Machine Learning vs Differential Privacy
edit: see below for clarifications by expert domain rpglover64 and a good pick of references from the gears to ascenscion. My one (cheatingly long) sentence takeaway is: it’s clear training does not automatically lead to DP, it’s unclear if DP can always or seldom help train... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LEKfxKp45THXP55Fe/machine-learning-vs-differential-privacy |
# Paper: Superposition, Memorization, and Double Descent (Anthropic)
(This is a follow up to Anthropic's prior work on [Toy Models of Superposition](https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.10652).)
The authors study how neural networks interpolate between memorization and generalization in the "ReLU Output" toy model from the fir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Ks6p33LQyfFkNtYE/paper-superposition-memorization-and-double-descent |
# How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard
Leo Szilard—the physicist who first conceived of the nuclear chain reaction and who urged the US to undertake the Manhattan Project—also wrote fiction. His book of short stories, *The Voice of the Dolphins*, contains a story “The Mark Gable Foundation,” ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/knggXREQhPHM8sbwj/how-to-slow-down-scientific-progress-according-to-leo |
# Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment): an overview
If this ends up being the [most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) due to advanced AI, what are the key factors in whether things go well or poorly?
_More detail on why AI could make this the most important century (De... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kyTjveaFo6KJN8EGw/transformative-ai-issues-not-just-misalignment-an-overview |
# Get an Electric Toothbrush.
Okay so, with the inspirations of the concise posts about lifestyle that user @jefftk does, I want to share one of my most recent discoveries with LW, one that with little economical input can offer you a better quality of life.
*GET AN ELECTRIC TOOTHBRUSH!!*
=========================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g6pLDG2FTXLHLEBH4/get-an-electric-toothbrush |
# The Involuntary Pacifists
This might be an idea better put to r/WritingPrompts (or ChatGPT), but a scenario has occurred to me which might count either as a near-utopia, or extreme dystopia, depending on your point of view.
Imagine a future Earth where a great power (this can be a superintelligent AI, benevolent ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xThEE6LhyywvZzeTF/the-involuntary-pacifists |
# UDASSA
Cross-posted, as always, from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2023/01/04/udassa/).
* * *
When constructing a theory of the universe and everything else, most people start with the universe.
For example: a theory that the universe was created by God, starting with important things like grass (Genesis ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tndX9uZEp5HHpS9xK/udassa |
# AI Safety Camp, Virtual Edition 2023
AI Safety Camp connects you with an experienced research lead to collaborate on a research project – helping you try your fit for a potential career in AI Safety research.
*The applications for AI Safety Camp’s Virtual Edition in 2023 are* [*now open*](https://airtable.com/shrNF... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9AXSrp5MAThZZEfTc/ai-safety-camp-virtual-edition-2023 |
# Childhood Roundup #1
I have a few shorter more focused posts in the works, including my practical short version of [On Bounded Distrust](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/on-bounded-distrust). In the meantime, it makes sense to continue to clean out the backlog of roundup style things.
### Let Your Children Play
[We h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sEbAQDkLtLXc7sbay/childhood-roundup-1 |
# Ball Square Station and Ridership Maximization
Matt Yglesias recently wrote [American transit agencies should prioritize ridership over other goals](https://www.slowboring.com/p/american-transit-agencies-should), and described how Boston's Green Line Extension was:
> so far over budget that it got canceled and then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGHTvXmYXwwuTmTGQ/ball-square-station-and-ridership-maximization |
# 200 COP in MI: Techniques, Tooling and Automation
*This is the seventh post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability. *[*Start here*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LbrPTJ4fmABEdEnLf/200-concrete-open-problems-in-mechanistic-interpretability)*, then read in any order. If ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/btasQF7wiCYPsr5qw/200-cop-in-mi-techniques-tooling-and-automation |
# Definitions of “objective” should be Probable and Predictive
Introduction
------------
Core arguments about existential risk from AI misalignment often reason about AI “objectives” to make claims about how they will behave in novel situations. I often find these arguments plausible but not rock solid because it doe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ASoGszmr9C5MPLtpC/definitions-of-objective-should-be-probable-and-predictive |
# Categorizing failures as “outer” or “inner” misalignment is often confused
Pop quiz: Are the following failures examples of outer or inner misalignment? Or is it ambiguous?
(I’ve spoilered the scenarios so you look at each one separately and answer before moving on to the next. Even if you don’t want to actually an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JKwrDwsaRiSxTv9ur/categorizing-failures-as-outer-or-inner-misalignment-is |
# AI security might be helpful for AI alignment
I am a person new to AI alignment, and recently I am looking for a job at the AI governance field, but it seems like it is hard to find a long-term financially stable full-time job.
For me, it basically means that only a tiny amount of people consider AI alignment impo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tDmkHz9ZLdHn2kzp9/ai-security-might-be-helpful-for-ai-alignment |
# Why didn't we get the four-hour workday?
John Maynard Keynes famously predicted in 1930 that by now we would only be working fifteen hours a week. What is less well-known is that his was nowhere near the only such prediction, nor the first—a wide range of commentators, including Charles Steinmetz and Buckminster Ful... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7tq3pnZoqrcTecs4d/why-didn-t-we-get-the-four-hour-workday |
# The Limit of Language Models
Epistemic Status
----------------
Highlighting a thesis in Janus' "[Simulators](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators)" that I think is insufficiently appreciated.
Thesis
------
In the limit, models optimised for minimising predictive loss on humanity's text cor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MmmPyJicaaJRk4Eg2/the-limit-of-language-models |
# [Linkpost] Jan Leike on three kinds of alignment taxes
*Jan Leike leads the safety team at OpenAI. This post is from a Substack series titled "*[***Musings on the Alignment Problem***](https://aligned.substack.com/)*". I've found his posts helpful for understanding how the OpenAI safety team is thinking about alignm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2BSHhH3DSeme8gBBC/linkpost-jan-leike-on-three-kinds-of-alignment-taxes |
# Implications of simulators
In this post, I:
* Explain the idea of language models as simulators in a way I find compelling.
* Introduce the notion of separate simulator selectors and simulation infrastructure within a model, and provide some evidence for this.
* Discuss what the theory means about the agency ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fyW9EP5NdZrC3k3jz/implications-of-simulators |
# [Discussion] How Broad is the Human Cognitive Spectrum?
Epistemic Status
----------------
[Discussion question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zhhYwM7gk8LZsDzxj/dragongod-s-shortform?commentId=vYqEZxYZwEnsiSKJ6).
Related Posts
-------------
* [Where The Falling Einstein Meets The Rising Mouse (Slatestarcodex)]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3cfTF7YkJa8DrSzxH/discussion-how-broad-is-the-human-cognitive-spectrum |
# Optimizing Human Collective Intelligence to Align AI
*Commitments are hard. Based on my* [*Research Principles*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/aK4hyeJyM2sYNS4Yc/p/ypTdBWxYdvTy64QF7) *for these 6 months of self-study, I'm writing up all my ideas regardless of level of polish. So here is the rough sketch of the idea I'm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8kB4rB8eaSFDWBbKi/optimizing-human-collective-intelligence-to-align-ai |
# An Ignorant View on Ineffectiveness of AI Safety
I am ignorant of AI and AI Safety to a very large degree. It is very likely that a lot of what I talk about here will be silly to an actual expert or is something that has been thought of a long time ago and tried and taken as far as they knew how. But I think that if... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fbrDMKwyqpM3NJG6s/an-ignorant-view-on-ineffectiveness-of-ai-safety |
# Can ChatGPT count?
A few month back there was a question on lesswrong about what the least impressive thing is going to be that GPT4 can't do. At the time I thought maybe counting could be a good candidate, because I had noticed that this seems to be a problem for all big transformer models.
Dall-E and other image... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AcDsTqA2vbbzmteuE/can-chatgpt-count |
# Open & Welcome Thread - January 2023
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are inv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BPRHZFH2xx7nz5TYT/open-and-welcome-thread-january-2023 |
# What should a telic science look like?
### A brief (re-)introduction
In case you don't want to read [introductory post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KhzQMcw4ard9LxaxL/do-we-have-the-right-kind-of-math-for-roles-goals-and) of this sequence, here is a quick recap of the broad context for this work. This post will ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZBX6aKCQ7ErA6f3ov/what-should-a-telic-science-look-like |
# What's wrong with the paperclips scenario?
In October 27th 2022, Eliezer Yudkowsky tweeted [this](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1578459400389345280):
So far so good. I may ask myself when thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/quxDhujzDH2a7jkwW/what-s-wrong-with-the-paperclips-scenario |
# The Fountain of Health: a First Principles Guide to Rejuvenation
I’d like to live in a world where age really *is* just a number. For the last ~3 years or so, I’ve been nerding out with increasing fervour about longevity biotech, having originally been inspired by one of Aubrey de Grey's many interviews. I want to e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cd4TLmGDZod2Soauw/the-fountain-of-health-a-first-principles-guide-to |
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