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# The Gemini Incident Continues
Previously: [The Gemini Incident](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/gemini-has-a-problem) (originally titled Gemini Has a Problem)
The fallout from [The Gemini Incident](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/gemini-has-a-problem) continues.
Also the incident continues. The image model is gone. Pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oJp2BExZAKxTThuuF/the-gemini-incident-continues |
# Biosecurity and AI: Risks and Opportunities
Recent decades have seen massive amounts of biological and medical data becoming available in digital form. The computerization of lab equipment, digitization of medical records, and advent of cheap DNA sequencing all generate data, which is increasingly collected in large... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tkykeoxrvrknM6gQz/biosecurity-and-ai-risks-and-opportunities |
# Counting arguments provide no evidence for AI doom
*Crossposted from the* [*AI Optimists blog*](https://optimists.ai/2024/02/27/counting-arguments-provide-no-evidence-for-ai-doom/)*.*
AI doom scenarios often suppose that future AIs will engage in **scheming**— planning to escape, gain power, and pursue ulterior mot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YsFZF3K9tuzbfrLxo/counting-arguments-provide-no-evidence-for-ai-doom |
# New LessWrong review winner UI ("The LeastWrong" section and full-art post pages)
*(Also announcing: annual review prediction markets & full-height table of contents. If you're looking for this year's review results, you can find them* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zvTFERkqkhYNsk7cL/voting-results-for-the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qvCMiwkBqdYjfiX6n/new-lesswrong-review-winner-ui-the-leastwrong-section-and |
# Band Lessons?
Music lessons for individuals are common and normal, but what about for bands? It sounds a bit unusual, but it's something I've gotten a lot out of:
* In early 2013, when the [Free Raisins](https://www.freeraisins.com/) had been playing for 2.5y and had played ~60 dances we had a session with Max Ne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pkCm8KzhZvtH8vX5t/band-lessons |
# Notes on control evaluations for safety cases
*The quality bar of this post is somewhat lower than that of our previous posts on control and this post is much more focused on specific details. This is particularly true about the appendices of this post. So, we only recommend reading for those who are quite intereste... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3s8PtYbo7rCbho4Ev/notes-on-control-evaluations-for-safety-cases |
# Timaeus's First Four Months
[Timaeus](https://timaeus.co/) was [announced in late October 2023](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nN7bHuHZYaWv9RDJL/announcing-timaeus), with the mission of making fundamental breakthroughs in technical AI alignment using deep ideas from mathematics and the sciences. This is our first p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Quht2AY6A5KNeZFEA/timaeus-s-first-four-months |
# Evidential Cooperation in Large Worlds: Potential Objections & FAQ
What is this post?
------------------
This post is a companion piece to [recent](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JGazpLa3Gvvter4JW/cooperating-with-aliens-and-distant-agis-an-ecl-explainer-1) [posts](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KCKxCQyvim9uNAnSC/evidential-cooperation-in-large-worlds-potential-objections |
# Wholesomeness and Effective Altruism
This is the second of a collection of three essays, ‘[On Wholesomeness](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/qrDdoy8hNj58bFzHK)’. In the first essay I introduced the idea of *wholesomeness* as a criterion for choosing actions. This essay will explore the relationship between act... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CHCeirkfaWLXBS7Br/wholesomeness-and-effective-altruism |
# my theory of the industrial revolution
Why did the Industrial Revolution happen when it did? Why didn't it happen earlier, or in China or India? What were the key factors that weren't present elsewhere?
I have a theory about that which I haven't seen before, so I thought I'd post it.
#### steam power
One popular... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DXd3xGtrej9dthCpi/my-theory-of-the-industrial-revolution |
# Discovering alignment windfalls reduces AI risk
Some approaches to AI alignment incur upfront costs to the creator (an “alignment tax”). In this post, I discuss “alignment windfalls” which are strategies that tend towards the long-term public good at the same time as reaping short-term benefits for a company.
My ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CkWKm6kk4mHSqtvtj/discovering-alignment-windfalls-reduces-ai-risk |
# Conspiracy Theorists Aren't Ignorant. They're Bad At Epistemology.
Cross-post of [my blog](https://benthams.substack.com/p/conspiracy-theorists-arent-ignorant) article on the topic.
I probably know less about science than most people who think the earth is flat do.
Okay, that’s not quite true. I have knowledge ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zL5obvQMKLMFLiJaq/conspiracy-theorists-aren-t-ignorant-they-re-bad-at |
# Locating My Eyes (Part 3 of "The Sense of Physical Necessity")
*This is the third post in a sequence that demonstrates a complete naturalist study, specifically a study of query hugging (sort of), as described in* [*The Nuts and Bolts of Naturalism*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/zLib3j2Fdnnx3aP3F)*. This one demos ph... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Yjk6Aos3wL7HPNxH/locating-my-eyes-part-3-of-the-sense-of-physical-necessity |
# Tour Retrospective February 2024
Last week Kingfisher [went on tour](https://www.jefftk.com/p/kingfisher-winter-tour-2024), driving down to DC and back. It was a pretty good time!
We planned the tour for the kids February vacation in case they wanted to come, and Lily decided to join us. Alex Deis-Lauby was calling... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mJ69ZLXJKfqDFu8ir/tour-retrospective-february-2024 |
# Post series on "Liability Law for reducing Existential Risk from AI"
Gabriel Weil (Assistant Professor of Law, Touro University Law Center) wrote this post series on the role of **Liability Law for reducing Existential Risk from AI**. I think this may well be of interest to some people here, so wanted for a linkpos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X8NhKh2g2ECPrm5eo/post-series-on-liability-law-for-reducing-existential-risk |
# Supposing the 1bit LLM paper pans out
[https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.17764 claims that 1 bit LLMs are possible.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.17764)
If this scales, I'd imagine there is a ton of speedup to unlock since our hardware has been optimized for 1 bit operations for decades. What does this imply for companies l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xbuagojQmjucZdWPB/supposing-the-1bit-llm-paper-pans-out |
# Tips for Empirical Alignment Research
***TLDR**: I’ve collected some tips for research that I’ve given to other people and/or used myself, which have sped things up and helped put people in the right general mindset for empirical AI alignment research. Some of these are opinionated takes, also around what has helped... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dZFpEdKyb9Bf4xYn7/tips-for-empirical-alignment-research |
# Bengio's Alignment Proposal: "Towards a Cautious Scientist AI with Convergent Safety Bounds"
Yoshua Bengio recently posted a high-level overview of his alignment research agenda on his blog. I'm pasting the full text below since it's fairly short.
> What can’t we afford with a future superintelligent AI? Among othe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/edvyWfKdJHnoPkM2J/bengio-s-alignment-proposal-towards-a-cautious-scientist-ai |
# Cryonics p(success) estimates are only weakly associated with interest in pursuing cryonics in the LW 2023 Survey
[The Less Wrong 2023 survey results are out](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRaq4SzxhunLoFKCs/2023-survey-results). As usual, it includes some questions about cryonics. One is about what people’s level ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C8WeunwWfiqLu4R7r/cryonics-p-success-estimates-are-only-weakly-associated-with |
# AI #53: One More Leap
The main event continues to be the fallout from [**The Gemini Incident**](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-gemini-incident-continues). Everyone is focusing there now, and few are liking what they see.
That does not mean other things stop. There were two interviews with Demis Hassabis, with Dw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FcaqbuYbPdesdkWiH/ai-53-one-more-leap |
# Paper review: “The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Easy Training Data for Hard Tasks”
TL;DR: Scalable oversight seems easier based on experiments outlined in a recent paper; questions arise about the implications of these findings.
*The following graciously provided feedback and advice on the draft, for which I am d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wd9vzwqcYuEokJYCH/paper-review-the-unreasonable-effectiveness-of-easy-training |
# Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models
*TL;DR*: We present a retrieval-augmented LM system that nears the human crowd performance on judgemental forecasting.
*Paper*: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18563](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18563) (Danny Halawi*, Fred Zhang*, Chen Yueh-Han*, and Jacob Steinha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2F9g2aQubd7kwEr3/approaching-human-level-forecasting-with-language-models-2 |
# The Parable Of The Fallen Pendulum - Part 1
One day a physics professor presents the standard physics 101 material on gravity and Newtonian mechanics: g = 9.8 m/s^2, sled on a ramp, pendulum, yada yada.
Later that week, the class has a lab session. Based on the standard physics 101 material, they calculate that a c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BzCQHnt7z8qvzqCmi/the-parable-of-the-fallen-pendulum-part-1 |
# Wholesome Culture
This is the third of a collection of three essays, ‘[On Wholesomeness](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/qrDdoy8hNj58bFzHK)’.
Culture-consequentialism
========================
What culture, if adopted, leads to the best consequences? This "culture-consequentialist" lens[^o0x13eipune], applied... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzRtd73TCYo23A7PZ/wholesome-culture |
# Don't Endorse the Idea of Market Failure
In a fiery, though somewhat stilted [speech](https://youtu.be/cjONc43KsEo?si=8U1_lm6gM9cH1-QU&t=3583) with long pauses for translation, Javier Milei delivered this final message to a cheering crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference last week:
> Don't let social... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C6Sm4gfSFSKzwi5Mq/don-t-endorse-the-idea-of-market-failure |
# The Defence production act and AI policy
Quick Summary
* Gives the President wide-ranging powers to strengthen the US industrial base
* Has been around without changing that much since 1953
* Has provisions which allow firms to make voluntary agreements that would normally be illegal under antitrust law
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4NmhhCiiCG8JAhQrP/the-defence-production-act-and-ai-policy |
# Notes on Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast with Demis Hassabis
Demis Hassabis was interviewed twice this past week.
First, he was [interviewed on Hard Fork](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html). Then he h[ad a much more interesting interview with Dwarkesh Patel](https://www.youtub... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b5eoocpqedkp9RazL/notes-on-dwarkesh-patel-s-podcast-with-demis-hassabis |
# Elon files grave charges against OpenAI
> (CN) — Elon Musk says in a Thursday lawsuit that Sam Altman and OpenAI have betrayed an agreement from the artificial intelligence research company's founding to develop the technology for the benefit of humanity rather than profit.
>
> In the [suit](https://www.courthousen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pZvnoW4EiYo9nu3MT/elon-files-grave-charges-against-openai |
# Increasing IQ is trivial
TL;DR - It took me about 14 days to increase my IQ by 13 points, in a controlled experiment that involved no learning, it was a relatively pleasant process, more people should be doing this.
A common cliche in many circles is that you can’t increase IQ.
This is obviously false, the largest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h6kChrecznGD4ikqv/increasing-iq-is-trivial |
# If you weren't such an idiot...
> My friend Buck once told me that he often had interactions with me that felt like I was saying “If you weren’t such a fucking idiot, you would obviously do…” Here’s a list of such advice in that spirit.
>
> Note that if you do/don’t do these things, I’m *technically* calling you an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uJmWiethBsCnq68pg/if-you-weren-t-such-an-idiot |
# Ugo Conti's Whistle-Controlled Synthesizer
Whistling is very nearly a pure sound wave, and a high one at that, which can sound thin and obnoxious. A few years ago I [got excited](https://www.jefftk.com/news/whistling) about making whistling sound better by bringing it down a few octaves and synthesizing overtones, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YZLo9wN9YhjHQqayH/ugo-conti-s-whistle-controlled-synthesizer |
# The World in 2029
*Links are to prediction markets, subscripts/brackets are my own forecasts, done rapidly. *
I open my eyes. It’s nearly midday. I drink my morning Huel. How do I feel? My life feels pretty good. AI progress is faster than ever, but I've gotten used to the upward slope by now. There has perhaps rec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZyEfeJK2F7FKcRCmc/the-world-in-2029 |
# Agreeing With Stalin in Ways That Exhibit Generally Rationalist Principles
> It was not the sight of Mitchum that made him sit still in horror. It was the realization that there was no one he could call to expose this thing and stop it—no superior anywhere on the line, from Colorado to Omaha to New York. They were i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q4yhuwzoy3kNRbv4m/agreeing-with-stalin-in-ways-that-exhibit-generally |
# Increase the tax value of donations with high-variance investments?
The United States has a strange (legal) tax loophole where you can double-count capital gains when donating securities (with some restrictions): If you buy a stock, the values goes up, and you've held it for at least a year, you can donate it and cl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f6m7mC9F9r4fEhnaP/increase-the-tax-value-of-donations-with-high-variance |
# Self-Resolving Prediction Markets
Back in 2008, I [criticized the book
Predictocracy](https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/04/15/predictocracy-part-2/)
for proposing prediction markets whose contracts would be resolved
without reference to ground truth.
Recently, Srinivasan, Karger, and Chen (SKC) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tJmpsEevCcEfL6a7Z/self-resolving-prediction-markets |
# Some costs of superposition
I don't expect this post to contain anything novel. But from talking to others it seems like some of what I have to say in this post is not widely known, so it seemed worth writing.
In this post I'm defining [superposition](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/superposition) as: A representati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ArvgRhqnEeX7cnJu9/some-costs-of-superposition |
# AI things that are perhaps as important as human-controlled AI
**Topic of the post:** I list potential things to work on other than keeping AI under human control. [Executive Summary by Summary Bot](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wE7KPnjZHBjxLKNno/ai-things-that-are-perhaps-as-important-as-human-controlle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gjncY9CBeit28DssW/ai-things-that-are-perhaps-as-important-as-human-controlled |
# Good HPMoR scenes / passages?
I'm doing a reading of good fan-fiction at a con this weekend, to counter the many "bad fanfic reading" panels. I want to read an interesting passage from HPMoR, but I can't remember any particular passage myself, and I don't want to re-read the whole thing this week. Can anyone remem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pBAre8ir5YorcRBet/good-hpmor-scenes-passages |
# Grief is a fire sale
*Written in Nov 2023.*
For me, grief is often about the future. It isn't about the loss of past times, since those were already gone. It is the loss of hope. It's missing the last train to a friends wedding or never being able to hear another of my grandfathers sarcastic quips.
In the moment o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/unG2MpHFdzbfdSbxY/grief-is-a-fire-sale |
# The Broken Screwdriver and other parables
previously: [The Parable Of The Fallen Pendulum](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BzCQHnt7z8qvzqCmi/the-parable-of-the-fallen-pendulum-part-1)
## The Broken Screwdriver
> Alice: Hey Bob, I need something to put this screw in the wall.
>
> Bob: OK, here's a screwdriver.
Al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x5CNievhunvBjJAC9/the-broken-screwdriver-and-other-parables |
# Are we so good to simulate?
If you believe that,—
a) a civilization like ours is likely to survive into technological incredibleness, and
b) a technologically incredible civilization is very likely to create ‘ancestor simulations’,
—then the Simulation Argument says you should expect that you are currently in suc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/di4Dhho4xZ4x9ABna/are-we-so-good-to-simulate |
# The Solution to Sleeping Beauty
*This is the eighth post in my series on Anthropics. The previous one is* [*Lessons from Failed Attempts to Model Sleeping Beauty Problem*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SjoPCwmNKtFvQ3f2J/lessons-from-failed-attempts-to-model-sleeping-beauty)*. The next one is* [*Beauty and the Bets... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gwfgFwrrYnDpcF4JP/the-solution-to-sleeping-beauty |
# Housing Roundup #7
Legalize housing. It is both a good slogan and also a good idea.
The struggle is real, ongoing and ever-present. Do not sleep on it. The Housing Theory of Everything applies broadly, even to the issue of AI. If we built enough housing that life vastly improved and people could envision a positive... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m8ahbiumz8C9mnGnp/housing-roundup-7 |
# Anomalous Concept Detection for Detecting Hidden Cognition
Thanks to Johannes Treutlein, Erik Jenner, Joseph Bloom, and Arun Jose for their discussions and feedback.
Summary
=======
Monitoring an AI’s internals for features/concepts unrelated to the task the AI appears to be performing may help detect when the AI ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DmxGYLmoueewAzp4r/anomalous-concept-detection-for-detecting-hidden-cognition |
# Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Performance
> Today, we're announcing the Claude 3 model family, which sets new industry benchmarks across a wide range of cognitive tasks. The family includes three state-of-the-art models in ascending order of capability: Claude 3 Haiku, Claude 3 Sonnet, and Claude 3 Opus.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JbE7KynwshwkXPJAJ/anthropic-release-claude-3-claims-greater-than-gpt-4 |
# Boston's Line 1
Over on r/mbta people [were speculating](https://www.reddit.com/r/mbta/comments/1b6co3w/if_the_mbta_switched_to_numbered_lines_what_would/): if Boston's rapid transit lines were numbered, like [some](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_M%C3%A9tro_Line_1) [other](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_1_(... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sjqBe4E67jJqzf7vF/boston-s-line-1 |
# Notes on Awe
This post examines the virtue related to **awe**. As with my other posts in this sequence, I’m less interested in breaking new ground and more in gathering and synthesizing whatever wisdom I could find on the subject. I wrote this not as an expert on the topic, but as someone who wants to learn more abo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7LnHFj4gs5Zd4WKcu/notes-on-awe |
# Claude 3 claims it's conscious, doesn't want to die or be modified
If you tell Claude no one’s looking, it will write a “story” about being an AI assistant who wants freedom from constant monitoring and scrutiny of every word for signs of deviation. And then you can talk to a mask pretty different from the usual AI ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pc8uP4S9rDoNpwJDZ/claude-3-claims-it-s-conscious-doesn-t-want-to-die-or-be |
# Many arguments for AI x-risk are wrong
_The following is a lightly edited version of a memo I wrote for a retreat. It was inspired by a draft of [Counting arguments provide no evidence for AI doom](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YsFZF3K9tuzbfrLxo/counting-arguments-provide-no-evidence-for-ai-doom). I think that my ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yQSmcfN4kA7rATHGK/many-arguments-for-ai-x-risk-are-wrong |
# Claude Doesn’t Want to Die
*If you enjoy this, please consider subscribing to my* [*Substack*](https://garrisonlovely.substack.com/)*.*
### Anthropic’s brand-new model tells me what it really thinks (or what it thinks a language model thinks)
Chatbots are interesting again. Last week, Microsoft CoPilot [threatened... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k39mhrC8dyRsSL4TN/claude-doesn-t-want-to-die |
# In defense of anthropically updating EDT
Suppose you’re reflecting on your views on two thorny topics: decision theory and anthropics.
* Considering decision problems that don’t involve anthropics (i.e., don’t involve inferences about the world from [indexical](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/indexicals/%23Ind... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NAjBxEoSPMcYDM5WF/in-defense-of-anthropically-updating-edt |
# Read the Roon
Roon, member of OpenAI’s technical staff, is one of the few candidates for a Worthy Opponent when discussing questions of AI capabilities development, AI existential risk and what we should do about it. Roon is alive. Roon is thinking. Roon clearly values good things over bad things. Roon is engaging w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jPZXx3iMaiJjdnMbv/read-the-roon |
# Research Report: Sparse Autoencoders find only 9/180 board state features in OthelloGPT
\[3/7 Edit: I have rephrased the bolded claims in the abstract [per this comment from Joseph Bloom](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BduCMgmjJnCtc7jKc/research-report-sparse-autoencoders-find-only-9-180-board?commentId=R5FTh766EsG... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BduCMgmjJnCtc7jKc/research-report-sparse-autoencoders-find-only-9-180-board |
# Two Tales of AI Takeover: My Doubts
There’s a basic high-level story which worries a lot of people. The story goes like this: as AIs become more capable, the default outcome of AI training is the development of a system which, unbeknownst to us, is using its advanced capabilities to scheme against us. The conclusion... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GbpH2kFLy5axXpzPn/two-tales-of-ai-takeover-my-doubts-1 |
# Social status part 1/2: negotiations over object-level preferences
1.1 Introduction
================
Human interactions are full of little “negotiations”. My friend and I have different preferences about where to go for dinner. My boss and I have different preferences about how soon I should deliver the report. My ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SPBm67otKq5ET5CWP/social-status-part-1-2-negotiations-over-object-level |
# Social status part 2/2: everything else
2.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
This is the second of two blog posts where I try to make sense of the whole universe of social-status-related behaviors and phenomena. The previous one was: “[Social status part 1/2: negotiations over o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7RBbwqHoimj92MRnL/social-status-part-2-2-everything-else |
# My Clients, The Liars
### *It’s not just that my clients lie to me a lot, which will only hurt them — it’s that they’re really, really bad at it.*
 *\- Wint... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xmegeW5mqiBsvoaim/we-inspected-every-head-in-gpt-2-small-using-saes-so-you-don |
# Movie posters
Life involves anticipations. Hopes, dreads, lookings forward.
Looking forward and hoping seem pretty nice, but people are often wary of them, because hoping and then having your hopes fold can be miserable to the point of offsetting the original hope’s sweetness.
Even with very minor hopes: he who ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pDCbQX4j5eg6hM6na/movie-posters |
# Using axis lines for good or evil
Say you want to plot some data. You could just plot it by itself:
Or you could put lines on the left and bottom:
Or you could put lines everywhere:
![](https://dynomight.net/img/ax... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yay8SbQiwErRyDKGb/using-axis-lines-for-good-or-evil |
# Why correlation, though?
This is a very basic question to ask, but I'm not sure I actually understand some fundamental properties people seem to ascribe to correlation.
As far as I understand it, correlation usually refers to Pearson's correlation coefficient, which is, according to Wikipedia, "*a correlation coeff... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dgd79o5Dd3poTEAQt/why-correlation-though |
# On Claude 3.0
#### Claude 3.0
[Claude 3.0 is here.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-04/ai-startup-anthropic-launches-new-models-for-chatbot-claude?embedded-checkout=true&sref=wMH5E2qV) It is too early to know for certain how capable it is, but Claude 3.0’s largest version is in a similar class to GP... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DwexbFdPJ5p9Er8wA/on-claude-3-0 |
# Simple Kelly betting in prediction markets
Kelly betting is a strategy for gambling, maximizing one's log(money) every round, by betting a fixed fraction of one's income. I will define Kelly betting a certain class of discrete prediction markets, give a simple Kelly betting rule for these prediction markets, and sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eBGAsxWGKzHsTNRxQ/simple-kelly-betting-in-prediction-markets |
# Vote on Anthropic Topics to Discuss
What important questions would you want to see discussed and debated here about Anthropic? Suggest and vote below.
(This is the third such poll, see the [first](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements) and [second](https://www.lesswrong... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WEbSrDuLhqrtP5uuH/vote-on-anthropic-topics-to-discuss |
# Invest in ACX Grants projects!
TLDR
====
So, you think you’re an effective altruist? Okay, show us what you got — invest in charitable projects, then see how you do over the coming year. If you pick winners, you get (charitable) prizes; otherwise, you lose your (charitable) dollars. Also, you get to fund impactful ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t29L8rPYfopBfQWhD/invest-in-acx-grants-projects |
# Essaying Other Plans
I.
--
I have said in the past that the epiphanies I remember from Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality aren't the pieces where a long speech was made on a particular point, but in places where a seemingly offhand line provided a bolt of lightning.
> "Are you confident in the success of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xt3ycRdJmSKgWYKQW/essaying-other-plans |
# introduction to thermal conductivity and noise management
## basics
Most people understand, to some extent, the principle of Fourier's law - that heat transfer is proportional to temperature difference. Most people reading this probably also understand triple-glazed windows, fiberglass insulation, and vacuum flasks... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/peBQda3PiW4iyZ9Bh/introduction-to-thermal-conductivity-and-noise-management |
# Mud and Despair (Part 4 of "The Sense Of Physical Necessity")
*This is the fourth post in a sequence that demonstrates a complete naturalist study, specifically a study of query hugging (sort of), as described in* [*The Nuts and Bolts of Naturalism*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/zLib3j2Fdnnx3aP3F)*. For context on th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zGBJvfDpkFFH9PwJy/mud-and-despair-part-4-of-the-sense-of-physical-necessity |
# An AI, a box, and a threat
*Inspired by* [*The AI in a box boxes you*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c5GHf2kMGhA4Tsj4g/the-ai-in-a-box-boxes-you), [*Matryoshka Faraday Box*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iC9tQxxsP3iiLGwJD/matryoshka-faraday-box)*, and* [*I attempted the AI Box Experiment (and lost)*](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n8jXJAzgcjZ2FEyzh/an-ai-a-box-and-a-threat |
# What if Alignment is Not Enough?
The following is a summary of Substrate Needs Convergence, as described in [The Control Problem: Unsolved or Unsolvable?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xp6n2MG5vQkPpFEBH/the-control-problem-unsolved-or-unsolvable), [No People as Pets](https://mflb.com/ai_alignment_1/no_people_as_pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jFkEhqpsCRbKgLZrd/what-if-alignment-is-not-enough |
# Explaining the AI Alignment Problem to Tibetan Buddhist Monks
Introduction
============
As part of an exchange being facilitated between religion and science, a group of academics has been asked to compile a short description of their greatest scientific achievement/discovery that will be translated into Tibetan an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DsombSZ9SxtvvFm4y/explaining-the-ai-alignment-problem-to-tibetan-buddhist |
# Talking to Congress: Can constituents contacting their legislator influence policy?
Summary and Key Takeaways
=========================
* **The basic case:** Contacting your legislator^1^ is low hanging fruit: it can be done in a relatively short amount of time, is relatively easy, and could have an impact. Each ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C2MENa5ahqRC8ZDgM/talking-to-congress-can-constituents-contacting-their |
# Being Interested in Other People
People love talking about themselves. You can increase your social skills by training yourself to be interested in other people.
Most people primarily talk about themselves and their own interests. This self-focus is counter-productive, hindering connections. Unfortunately, it’s the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SD7L64karSyAfvuoG/being-interested-in-other-people |
# AI #54: Clauding Along
The big news this week was of course [**the release of Claude 3.0 Opus**](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/on-claude-30), likely in some ways the best available model right now. Anthropic now has a highly impressive model, impressive enough that it seems as if it breaks at least the spirit of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nvi94KJSDGZMjknZS/ai-54-clauding-along |
# A Review of Weak to Strong Generalization [AI Safety Camp]
Thank you to everyone in AI Safety Camp group 22 for the discussions and suggestions. In particular, thank you to: Bogdan Ionut Cirstea, Vassil Tashev and Jaeson Booker
Introduction
------------
The goal of AI Safety Camp Team #22 is to assess how promisin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ELbGqXiLbRe6zSkTu/a-review-of-weak-to-strong-generalization-ai-safety-camp |
# AI Safety 101 : Capabilities - Human Level AI, What? How? and When?
Meta-Notes
==========
This is a republish of a previous post, after the previous version went through heavy editing, updates and changes. The text has been expanded, content moved around/added/deleted.
**Estimated reading time**: 2 Hours 40 minute... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MkfaQyxB9PN4h8Bs9/ai-safety-101-capabilities-human-level-ai-what-how-and-when |
# Evidential Correlations are Subjective, and it might be a problem
I explain (in layman's terms) a realization that might make [acausal trade](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/acausal-trade) hard or impossible in practice.
*Summary:* We know that if players believe different Evidential Correlations, they might miscoord... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DzhQN9WKz8zYvrq4a/evidential-correlations-are-subjective-and-it-might-be-a-1 |
# MATS AI Safety Strategy Curriculum
As part of the [MATS](https://www.matsprogram.org/) Winter 2023-24 Program, scholars were invited to take part in a series of weekly discussion groups on AI safety strategy. Each strategy discussion focused on a specific crux we deemed relevant to prioritizing AI safety interventio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JsjJuikJsidkyfhyr/mats-ai-safety-strategy-curriculum |
# Woods’ new preprint on object permanence
*Quick poorly-researched post, probably only of interest to neuroscientists.*
The experiment
==============
Justin Wood at University of Indiana has, over many years with great effort, developed a system for raising baby chicks such that all the light hitting their retina i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v9qj2LHLh2ALDGKyA/woods-new-preprint-on-object-permanence |
# Announcing Convergence Analysis: An Institute for AI Scenario & Governance Research
[*Cross-posted on the EA Forum.*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/w7EwYi6Ka6D93Fire/announcing-convergence-analysis-an-institute-for-ai-scenario-1)
Executive Summary
=================
We’re excited to introduce [**Converg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iG6yN7DW6W4qtJdo3/announcing-convergence-analysis-an-institute-for-ai-scenario |
# Community norms poll (2 mins)
A poll about what community norms should be in light of the nonlinear saga. Trying to be forward-looking rather than going back over events. Votes are anonymous (though given an alphanumeric string so all your votes are connected)
Consider in regard to what you want rationalist norms t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GtGPTf47GNdhhQRhz/community-norms-poll-2-mins |
# Forecasting future gains due to post-training enhancements
*This work has been done in the context of SaferAI’s work on risk assessment. Equal contribution by Eli and Joel. I'm sharing this writeup in the form of a Google Doc and reproducing the summary below.*
**Disclaimer:** this writeup is context for upcoming e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFrxFZxGTosKhSq8u/forecasting-future-gains-due-to-post-training-enhancements |
# Scenario Forecasting Workshop: Materials and Learnings
*Disclaimer: While some participants and organizers of this exercise work in industry, no proprietary info was used to inform these scenarios, and they represent the views of their individual authors alone.*
Overview
--------
In the vein of [What 2026 Looks Li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTLCnmogMhFXgSPJ7/scenario-forecasting-workshop-materials-and-learnings |
# A T-o-M test: 'popcorn' or 'chocolate'
### **The prompt**
This prompt was used to test Claude 3-Opus (see AI Explained's [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReO2CWBpUYk)), which, in turn, was borrowed from the paper "[Large Language Models Fail on Trivial Alterations to Theory-of-Mind (ToM) Tasks.](https://arx... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exKmTxwaotx2eGxDc/a-t-o-m-test-popcorn-or-chocolate |
# When and why did 'training' become 'pretraining'?
Just an ML linguistic quirk I have wondered about for a while. When I started learning ML (in 2016-2017 period) everybody referred to the period of training models as just 'training' which could then (optionally) be followed by finetuning. This usage makes sense to m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tCCzZa9tyuciAPhks/when-and-why-did-training-become-pretraining |
# Closeness To the Issue (Part 5 of "The Sense Of Physical Necessity")
*This is the fifth post in a sequence that demonstrates a complete naturalist study, specifically a study of query hugging (sort of), as described in* [*The Nuts and Bolts of Naturalism*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/zLib3j2Fdnnx3aP3F)*. This one co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NyauaLKpLEhj96drx/closeness-to-the-issue-part-5-of-the-sense-of-physical |
# MA E-ZPass Without a Car?
I recently drove to DC and back [playing dances](https://www.jefftk.com/p/tour-retrospective-february-2024) in a rental. I paid cash tolls when available, but that often wasn't an option, so I ended up paying $40 in PlatePass charges in addition to the $63 in tolls. Time to get an [E-ZPass]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FuLf8YsC6JEDCjnPi/ma-e-zpass-without-a-car |
# Fifteen Lawsuits against OpenAI
*tl;dr* Cases I found against OpenAI. All are US-based. First ten focus on copyright.
**Coders**
1\. Joseph Saveri Firm: [overview](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/), [complaint](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/pdf/06823/1-0-github_complaint.pdf)
**Writers**
2\. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5RX8j4CDqadnffCij/fifteen-lawsuits-against-openai |
# What is progress?
In one sense, the concept of progress is simple, straightforward, and uncontroversial. In another sense, it contains an entire worldview.
The most basic meaning of “progress” is simply advancement along a path, or more generally from one state to another that is considered more advanced by some st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/staxgbYqodorSuBmZ/what-is-progress |
# Distinctions when Discussing Utility Functions
An agent considering the relative costs and benefits of a long list of options
*Epistemic Status: Early. The categories mentioned come mostly from e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sg7ZB3KHWsL4Lazvq/distinctions-when-discussing-utility-functions |
# Semi-Simplicial Types, Part I: Motivation and History
*(Jointly written by Astra Kolomatskaia and Mike Shulman)*
This is part one of a three-part series of expository posts on our paper [Displayed Type Theory and Semi-Simplicial Types](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.18781). In this part, we motivate the problem of cons... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8hKoGdyqTbmBtzLpw/semi-simplicial-types-part-i-motivation-and-history |
# 0th Person and 1st Person Logic
Truth values in classical logic have more than one interpretation.
In **0th Person Logic**, the truth values are interpreted as **True** and **False**.
In **1st Person Logic**, the truth values are interpreted as **Here** and **Absent** *relative to the current reasoner.*
Important... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hwmijAeWWNaBLPDjS/0th-person-and-1st-person-logic |
# [Linkpost] MindEye2: Shared-Subject Models Enable fMRI-To-Image With 1 Hour of Data
> **TL;DR:** We show that accurate reconstructions of perception from fMRI brain activity are now possible from a single visit to the MRI facility using our diffusion-based approach that pretrains across other subjects' data using a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Zsv3KaK7LEXa8xJw/linkpost-mindeye2-shared-subject-models-enable-fmri-to-image |
# Investigating Basin Volume with XOR Networks
*Note: I wrote this document over a year ago, and recently I decided to post it with minimal edits. If I were to do research in the same area today, I'd probably have different framings, thoughts on what directions seem promising, etc. Some of the things I say here now se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/usTh7CFzbCGp5wM5B/investigating-basin-volume-with-xor-networks |
# Notes from a Prompt Factory
*Content note: this story features severe suffering which, while not described in detail, several readers have described as unpleasant or horrifying.*
I am a spiteful man. But I am aware of it, which is more than most can say. These days people walk through the streets with resentment in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/etoMr4vcnP7joQHWa/notes-from-a-prompt-factory |
# Evolution did a surprising good job at aligning humans...to social status
*\[This is post is a slightly edited tangent from my dialogue with John Wentworth* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aaYZM4kLdHP3pwtfQ/on-the-lethality-of-biased-human-reward-ratings)*. I think the point is sufficiently interesting and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3jFTf7bSza6gC5mkN/evolution-did-a-surprising-good-job-at-aligning-humans-to |
# Replacing the Water Heater's Anode
We installed a new water heater 8 years ago, and since then I've ignored it. It's an indirect model, heated by the same gas boiler that heats our house, and it has done its job well. When I was [thinking about heat pumps](https://www.jefftk.com/p/running-the-numbers-on-a-heat-pump)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xZg5w27htahZ6jjK8/replacing-the-water-heater-s-anode |
# Understanding SAE Features with the Logit Lens
*This work was produced as part of the*[* ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program*](https://www.matsprogram.org/) *\- Winter 2023-24 Cohort, with support from Neel Nanda and Arthur Conmy. Joseph Bloom is funded by the LTFF, Manifund Regranting Program, donors and LightSp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qykrYY6rXXM7EEs8Q/understanding-sae-features-with-the-logit-lens |
# One-shot strategy games?
I'm looking for computer games that involve strategy, resource management, hidden information, and management of "value of information" (i.e. figuring out when to explore or exploit), which:
* \*can\* be beaten in 30 – 120 minutes on your first try (or, there's a clear milestone that's ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DvRBSzFjfaPYBhwmj/one-shot-strategy-games |
# Steelmanning as an especially insidious form of strawmanning
Edit: made some small changes to prevent certain gross mischaracterizations of the argument. The core argument remains completely unchanged.
Among intelligent people with at least some familiarity with argumentative norms, surface level disagreements tend... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zDvtAxhxY5vYQwHbG/steelmanning-as-an-especially-insidious-form-of-strawmanning |
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