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# Announcing the 2024 Roots of Progress Blog-Building Intensive
Today we’re opening applications for [the 2024 cohort of The Roots of Progress Blog-Building Intensive](https://fellowship.rootsofprogress.org/programs/), an 8-week program for aspiring progress writers to start or grow a blog.
Last year, nearly 500 peop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FP4Sq763BHXT5XSot/announcing-the-2024-roots-of-progress-blog-building |
# Transcoders enable fine-grained interpretable circuit analysis for language models
Summary
========
* We present a method for performing circuit analysis on language models using "transcoders," an occasionally-discussed variant of SAEs that provide an interpretable approximation to MLP sublayers' computations. T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YmkjnWtZGLbHRbzrP/transcoders-enable-fine-grained-interpretable-circuit |
# Mechanistically Eliciting Latent Behaviors in Language Models
*Produced as part of the MATS Winter 2024 program, under the mentorship of Alex Turner (TurnTrout).*
**TL,DR:** I introduce a method for eliciting latent behaviors in language models by learning unsupervised perturbations of an early layer of an LLM. The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ioPnHKFyy4Cw2Gr2x/mechanistically-eliciting-latent-behaviors-in-language-1 |
# Questions for labs
Associated with [AI Lab Watch](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N2r9EayvsWJmLBZuF/introducing-ai-lab-watch), I sent questions to some labs a week ago (except I failed to reach Microsoft). I didn't really get any replies (one person replied in their personal capacity; this was very limited and they ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jbJ7FynonxFXeoptf/questions-for-labs |
# "Open Source AI" is a lie, but it doesn't have to be
*NOTE: This post was updated to include two additional models which meet the criteria for being considered Open Source AI.*
As advanced machine learning systems become increasingly widespread, the question of how to make them safe is also gaining attention. Withi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTZ7Ybtuk9pLx4oLG/open-source-ai-is-a-lie-but-it-doesn-t-have-to-be |
# The formal goal is a pointer
When I introduce people to plans like [QACI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4RrLiboiGGKfsanMF/the-qaci-alignment-plan-table-of-contents), they often have objections like "How is an AI going to do all of the simulating necessary to calculate this?" or "If our technology is good enough to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/icE2SKMN2M2nBRsyz/the-formal-goal-is-a-pointer |
# AXRP Episode 30 - AI Security with Jeffrey Ladish
[YouTube link](https://youtu.be/l1yiFToBAtM)
Top labs use various forms of “safety training” on models before their release to make sure they don’t do nasty stuff - but how robust is that? How can we ensure that the weights of powerful AIs don’t get leaked or stolen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8rBk6fMgwfG4wHt37/axrp-episode-30-ai-security-with-jeffrey-ladish |
# Take SCIFs, it’s dangerous to go alone
*Coauthored by Dmitrii Volkov*$^1$*, Christian Schroeder de Witt*$^2$*, Jeffrey Ladish*$^1$* (*$^1$*Palisade Research, *$^2$*University of Oxford).*
We explore how frontier AI labs could assimilate operational security (opsec) best practices from fields like nuclear energy and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d396HCvYG7SSqg9Hh/take-scifs-it-s-dangerous-to-go-alone |
# LessWrong Community Weekend 2024, open for applications
[Main event page](https://www.lesswrong.com/events/tBYRFJNgvKWLeE9ih/lesswrong-community-weekend-2024)
Friday 13th September- Monday 16th Septem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AdGjrWYB7y5rMtTSr/lesswrong-community-weekend-2024-open-for-applications |
# ACX Covid Origins Post convinced readers
ACX recently [posted](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim) about the Rootclaim Covid origins debate, coming out in favor of zoonosis. Did the post change the minds of those who read it, or not? Did it change their judgment in favor of zoonosis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Na4t6QcpQij2paJQM/acx-covid-origins-post-convinced-readers |
# Manifund Q1 Retro: Learnings from impact certs
Manifund is a philanthropic startup that runs a website and programs to fund awesome projects. From January to now, we wrapped up 3 different programs for impact certificates (aka venture-style funding for charity projects): ACX Grants, Manifold Community Fund, and the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AzoopyYgzNimBJDdY/manifund-q1-retro-learnings-from-impact-certs |
# KAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks
ADDED: This post is controversial. For details see the comments below or the post [Please stop publishing ideas/insights/research about AI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/55rc6LJcqRmyaEr9T/please-stop-publishing-ideas-insights-research-about-ai) (which is also controversial).
Abstra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4LSh73CEq9dqLwFxR/kan-kolmogorov-arnold-networks |
# Shane Legg's necessary properties for every AGI Safety plan
I've been going through the [FAR AI videos](https://www.alignment-workshop.com/nola-2023) from the alignment workshop in December 2023. I'd like people to discuss their thoughts on Shane Legg's 'necessary properties' that every AGI safety plan needs to sati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HA8Yena6WyP6Cgg5c/shane-legg-s-necessary-properties-for-every-agi-safety-plan |
# [Linkpost] Silver Bulletin: For most people, politics is about fitting in
Nate Silver tries to answer the question: "How do people formulate their political beliefs?"
An important epistemological question that is, he says, under-discussed.
He lays out his theory:
> I think political beliefs are primarily formulat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jybSEG6cGwLxRmq4Z/linkpost-silver-bulletin-for-most-people-politics-is-about |
# An explanation of evil in an organized world
A classic problem with Christianity is the so-called ‘problem of evil’—that friction between the hypothesis that the world’s creator is arbitrarily good and powerful, and a large fraction of actual observations of the world.
Coming up with solutions to the problem of evi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X2238QKvd7y5EW9DM/an-explanation-of-evil-in-an-organized-world |
# Can stealth aircraft be detected optically?
5th generation military aircraft are extremely optimised to reduce their radar cross section. It is this ability above all others that makes the f-35 and the f-22 so capable - modern anti aircraft weapons are very good, so the only safe way to fly over a well defended area... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WCvjdws5qCYby7YGr/can-stealth-aircraft-be-detected-optically |
# Q&A on Proposed SB 1047
Previously: [On the Proposed California SB 1047](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/on-the-proposed-california-sb-1047?utm_source=publication-search).
[Text of the bill is here](https://legiscan.com/CA/text/SB1047/2023). It focuses on safety requirements for highly capable AI models.
This is wri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qsGRKwTRQ5jyE5fKB/q-and-a-on-proposed-sb-1047 |
# Which skincare products are evidence-based?
The beauty industry offers a large variety of skincare products (marketed mostly at women), differing both in alleged function and (substantially) in price. However, it's pretty hard to test for yourself how much any of these product help. The feedback loop for things like... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eBzJawjxkMdNaCeMm/which-skincare-products-are-evidence-based |
# AI #62: Too Soon to Tell
What is the mysterious impressive new ‘gpt2-chatbot’ from the Arena? Is it GPT-4.5? A refinement of GPT-4? A variation on GPT-2 somehow? A new architecture? Q-star? Someone else’s model? Could be anything. It is so weird that this is how someone chose to present that model.
There was also a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sZpj4Xf9Ly2jyR9tK/ai-62-too-soon-to-tell |
# Why is AGI/ASI Inevitable?
Hello! My name is Amy.
This is my first LessWrong post. I'm about somewhat certain it will be deleted, but I'm giving it a shot anyway, because I've seen this argument thrown around a few places and I still don't understand. I've read a few chunks of the Sequences, and the fundamental... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eh29hsLjbzKoYdyu7/why-is-agi-asi-inevitable |
# AI #61: Meta Trouble
*Note by habryka: This post failed to import automatically from RSS for some reason, so it's a week late. Sorry for the hassle.*
The week’s big news was supposed to be Meta’s release of two versions of Llama-3.
Everyone was impressed. These were definitely strong models.
Investors felt differ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pPwt5ir2zFayLx7tH/ai-61-meta-trouble |
# Let's Design A School, Part 2.1
School as Education - Structure
What are our goals when it comes to school-as-education? What are we actually trying to achieve?
It’s my understanding that the current school system is designed to produce factory workers - that is, to create a class of adults capable of working produ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kZpAPv96Daha8PMw8/let-s-design-a-school-part-2-1-school-as-education-structure |
# Weekly newsletter for AI safety events and training programs
We've merged the newsletters from[ aisafety.training](https://aisafety.training/) and[ aisafety.events](https://aisafety.events/) to create one clean, comprehensive weekly email covering newly announced events and training programs in the AI safety space.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JsqPftLgvHLL4Pscg/weekly-newsletter-for-ai-safety-events-and-training-programs |
# Mechanistic Interpretability Workshop Happening at ICML 2024!
Announcing the first academic Mechanistic Interpretability workshop, held at ICML 2024! I think this is an exciting development that's a lagging indicator of mech interp gaining legitimacy as an academic field, and a good chance for field building and sha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3GqWPosTFKxeysHwg/mechanistic-interpretability-workshop-happening-at-icml-2024 |
# Apply to ESPR & PAIR, Rationality and AI Camps for Ages 16-21
*TLDR – Apply now to *[*ESPR*](https://espr.camp) *and*[*PAIR*](https://pair.camp)*. ESPR welcomes students between 16-19 years. PAIR is for students between 16-21 years.*
The [FABRIC team](http://fabric.camp) is running two immersive summer workshops fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7SnqxTzZzPMaKL5d3/apply-to-espr-and-pair-rationality-and-ai-camps-for-ages-16 |
# AI Clarity: An Initial Research Agenda
*Cross-posted on our website:* [*https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/publications/ai-clarity-an-initial-research-agenda*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/publications/ai-clarity-an-initial-research-agenda)
*Cross-posted on the EA Forum:* [*https://forum.effectivealtruism.o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/324pQjqoHEHeF2vPs/ai-clarity-an-initial-research-agenda |
# "AI Safety for Fleshy Humans" an AI Safety explainer by Nicky Case
Nicky Case, of ["The Evolution of Trust"](https://ncase.me/trust/) and ["We Become What We Behold"](https://ncase.itch.io/wbwwb) fame (two quite popular online explainers/mini-games) has written an intro explainer to AI Safety! It looks pretty good ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gprh2HD6PDK6AZDqP/ai-safety-for-fleshy-humans-an-ai-safety-explainer-by-nicky |
# Key takeaways from our EA and alignment research surveys
*Many thanks to Spencer Greenberg, Lucius Caviola, Josh Lewis, John Bargh, Ben Pace, Diogo de Lucena, and Philip Gubbins for their valuable ideas and feedback at each stage of this project—as well as the ~375 EAs + alignment researchers who provided the data ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XTdByFM6cmgB3taEN/key-takeaways-from-our-ea-and-alignment-research-surveys |
# Were there any ancient rationalists?
I've recently read some cool posts on rationality through history (e.g., see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DtcbfwSrcewFubjxp/the-rationalists-of-the-1950s-and-before-also-called)), and want to see if there are more examples! So: **do you know of any "ancient" individual ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dL5kzowP8r4JJxhep/were-there-any-ancient-rationalists |
# (Geometrically) Maximal Lottery-Lotteries Exist
*epistemic/ontological status: almost certainly all of the following - *
* *a careful research-grade writeup of a genuinely kinda shiny open(?) question in theoretical* [*psephology*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psephology) *that will likely never see actual serio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SozrRa4KtHW9W8GoH/geometrically-maximal-lottery-lotteries-exist |
# Get your tickets to Manifest 2024 by May 13th!
What is Manifest?
=================
[Manifest](http://manifest.is/) is a festival for predictions, markets, and mechanisms. It’ll feature serious talks, attendee-run workshops, fun side events, and so many of our favorite people!
**Tickets:** [manifest.is/#tickets](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YstyvDymtaaXFQdfM/get-your-tickets-to-manifest-2024-by-may-13th |
# My hour of memoryless lucidity
Yesterday, I had a [coronectomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronectomy): the top halves of my bottom wisdom teeth were surgically removed. It was my first time being sedated, and I didn’t know what to expect. While I was unconscious during the surgery, the hour after surgery turned... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bkr9BozFuh7ytiwbK/my-hour-of-memoryless-lucidity |
# Now THIS is forecasting: understanding Epoch’s Direct Approach
*Happy May the 4th from Convergence Analysis! Cross-posted on the* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yHjdr5pi2oCPbMxTR/now-this-is-forecasting-understanding-epoch-s-direct)*.*
As part of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hqDfsYTftQGr4eM4H/now-this-is-forecasting-understanding-epoch-s-direct |
# Conserved Quantities (Stat Mech Part 2)
As before, we will consider particles moving in boxes in an abstract and semi-formal way.
Imagine we have two types of particle, red and blue, in a box. Imagine they can change colour freely, and as before let's forget as much as possible. Our knowledge over particle states n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K86KpNvt6bGygnBHE/conserved-quantities-stat-mech-part-2 |
# Shannon Vallor’s “technomoral virtues”
Shannon Vallor is the first Baillie Gifford Chair in the Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the Edinburgh Futures Institute. She is the author of [*Technology and the Virtues: A Philosophical Guide to a Future Worth Wanting*](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/39198... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KKayJ2CXEgW2CaCXr/shannon-vallor-s-technomoral-virtues |
# S-Risks: Fates Worse Than Extinction
[Cross-posted to the EA forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/k6fJXBnc7YnDcxsQm/s-risks-fates-worse-than-extinction)
*In this Rational Animations video, we discuss s-risks (risks from astronomical suffering), which involve an astronomical number of beings suffering t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bDoGbZX7Jzjr2x3Aa/s-risks-fates-worse-than-extinction |
# Introducing AI-Powered Audiobooks of Rational Fiction Classics
(ElevenLabs reading of this post:)
Your browser does not support the audio element.
I'm excited to share a project I've been working on that I think many in the Lesswrong community will appreciate - converting some rational fiction into high-quality a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W7estof3P7JgBKWrN/introducing-ai-powered-audiobooks-of-rational-fiction |
# Some Experiments I'd Like Someone To Try With An Amnestic
A couple years ago, I had a great conversation at a research retreat about the cool things we could do if only we had safe, reliable amnestic drugs - i.e. drugs which would allow us to act more-or-less normally for some time, but not remember it at all later ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cgrgbboLmWu4zZeG8/some-experiments-i-d-like-someone-to-try-with-an-amnestic |
# introduction to cancer vaccines
## cancer neoantigens
For cells to become cancerous, they must have mutations that cause uncontrolled replication and mutations that prevent that uncontrolled replication from causing apoptosis. Because cancer requires several mutations, it often begins with damage to mutation-preven... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xgrvmaLFvkFr4hKjz/introduction-to-cancer-vaccines |
# Haymarket at Closing Time
Historically produce shopping was mostly in open-air markets, but in the US produce is now typically sold in buildings. Most open-air produce sales are probably at farmers markets, but these focus on the high end. I like that [Boston's Haymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haymarket_(Bos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3rkcbvpRKZPtXKFwN/haymarket-at-closing-time |
# Does reducing the amount of RL for a given capability level make AI safer?
Some people have suggested that a lot of the danger of training a powerful AI comes from reinforcement learning. Given an objective, RL will reinforce any method of achieving the objective that the model a) tries and b) finds to be successful... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rZ6wam9gFGFQrCWHc/does-reducing-the-amount-of-rl-for-a-given-capability-level |
# Explaining a Math Magic Trick
Introduction
------------
A recent popular tweet did a "math magic trick", and I want to explain why it works and use that as an excuse to talk about cool math (functional analysis). The [tweet in question](https://twitter.com/GuilleAngeris/status/1784936202686300283):
 with the goal of adding virtual harp strings to my electric mandolin. As I've worked on it, though, I've ended up building something pretty different:
[](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YAMijCetKxNRcAwFB/accidental-electronic-instrument |
# Uncovering Deceptive Tendencies in Language Models: A Simulated Company AI Assistant
Abstract:
> We study the tendency of AI systems to deceive by constructing a realistic simulation setting of a company AI assistant. The simulated company employees provide tasks for the assistant to complete, these tasks spanning ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t7gqDrb657xhbKkem/uncovering-deceptive-tendencies-in-language-models-a |
# GDP per capita in 2050
**Abstract**
============
Here, I present GDP (per capita) forecasts of major economies until 2050. Since GDP per capita is the best generalized predictor of many important variables, such as welfare, GDP forecasts can give us a more concrete picture of what the world might look like in just ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8gCsRPxvXyAZJLcwd/gdp-per-capita-in-2050 |
# Observations on Teaching for Four Weeks
I just finished a program where I taught two classes of high school seniors, two classes a day for four weeks, as part of my grad program.
This experience was a lot of fun and it was rewarding, but it was really surprising, and even if only in small ways prompted me to updat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BJYPwnuiDcsMqJCng/observations-on-teaching-for-four-weeks |
# Rapid capability gain around supergenius level seems probable even without intelligence needing to improve intelligence
TLDR:
1. Around Einstein-level, relatively small changes in intelligence can lead to large changes in what one is capable to accomplish.
1. E.g. Einstein was a bit better than the other best... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aH9R8amREaDSwFc97/rapid-capability-gain-around-supergenius-level-seems |
# How do open AI models affect incentive to race?
I see it [said sometimes](https://x.com/TetraspaceWest/status/1787300462204538987) that open models contribute to AI race dynamics. My guess is that they don't, and if anything, reduce AI race dynamics.
I will consider a simplified model that only takes into account t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/apZ7oEphqPsoEBgdp/how-do-open-ai-models-affect-incentive-to-race |
# AXRP Episode 31 - Singular Learning Theory with Daniel Murfet
[YouTube link](https://youtu.be/hdB9gIwD6x4)
What’s going on with deep learning? What sorts of models get learned, and what are the learning dynamics? Singular learning theory is a theory of Bayesian statistics broad enough in scope to encompass deep neu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q6Tky4RzEmTwfGndB/axrp-episode-31-singular-learning-theory-with-daniel-murfet |
# Mental Masturbation and the Intellectual Comfort Zone
I have a particular problem that I like to refer to as Mental Masturbation.
**Mental Masturbation**: consuming information under the pretense of wanting to learn something useful, but in reality I’m “getting myself off” by indulging in subjects I’m already well-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uar2DEWacHLHPFDdd/mental-masturbation-and-the-intellectual-comfort-zone |
# What is a community that has changed their behaviour without strife?
I've been thinking about community improvement and I realise I don't know of any examples where a community had a flaw and fixed it without some deeply painful process.
Often there are discussions of flaws within EA with some implied notion that c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dm3hhsFcima2jYExn/what-is-a-community-that-has-changed-their-behaviour-without |
# reflections on smileys and how to make society's interpretive priors more charitable
Hi : )
I used to use smileys in my writing all the time (more than I do now!). but then I read [Against Disclaimers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/against-disclaihtml), and I thought that every time I used a smiley I wud make p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7LsHtsLTjrpknfzb3/reflections-on-smileys-and-how-to-make-society-s |
# Reviewing the Structure of Current AI Regulations
*This report is one in a series of ~10 posts comprising a **2024 State of the AI Regulatory Landscape Review**, conducted by the *[***Governance Recommendations Research Program***](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/programs/governance-research) *at*[***Convergence... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j6mi9ubiKLnGsDcLE/reviewing-the-structure-of-current-ai-regulations |
# Designing for a single purpose
If you’ve ever been to Amsterdam, you’ve probably visited, or at least heard about the famous cookie store that sells only one cookie. I mean, not a piece, but a single flavor.
I’m talking about [*Van Stapele Koekmakerij*](https://vanstapele.com/) of course—where you can get one of t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XCzg4uJCHTJNkzyo3/designing-for-a-single-purpose |
# Let's Design A School, Part 2.2
School as Education - The Curriculum (General)
The problem you run into when designing a curriculum is that you have to decide what you want students to learn.
The problem with deciding what you want students to learn is that your decisions will inevitably end up being a reflection o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v38y5zYYzZJLgGtRn/let-s-design-a-school-part-2-2-school-as-education-the |
# Deep Honesty
Most people avoid saying literally false things, especially if those could be audited, like making up facts or credentials. The reasons for this are both moral and pragmatic — being caught out looks really bad, and sustaining lies is quite hard, especially over time. Let’s call the habit of not saying t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/szn26nTwJDBkhn8ka/deep-honesty |
# Navigating LLM embedding spaces using archetype-based directions
**TL;DR** This research presents a novel method for exploring LLM embedding space using the [Major Arcana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_Arcana) of the [tarot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarot) as archetypal anchors. The approach generates "ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QwsyNzdPeDWLrG9gC/navigating-llm-embedding-spaces-using-archetype-based |
# Dating Roundup #3: Third Time’s the Charm
[The first speculated on why you’re still single.](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/dating-roundup-1-this-is-why-youre) We failed to settle the issue. A lot of you were indeed still single. So the debate continues.
[The second gave more potential reasons](https://thezvi.substa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PLoz68JbTkDufeYSG/dating-roundup-3-third-time-s-the-charm |
# How to be an amateur polyglot
Setting the stage
Being a polyglot is a problem of definition first. Who can be described as a polyglot? At what level do you actually “speak” the given language? Some sources cite that polyglot means speaking more than 4 languages, others 6. My take is it doesn’t matter. I am more int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BPpeBH8brSCRvZajs/how-to-be-an-amateur-polyglot |
# Experience Switching to Right Shoulder Round
Contra dance has a figure where two people walk a small circle looking at each other. When it was introduced into contra in the 1970s as a borrowing from ECD, it had the name "gypsy", originally [from Morris dancing](https://www.jefftk.com/p/history-of-the-term-gypsy), bu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SkN4fErLksRh7HRpu/experience-switching-to-right-shoulder-round |
# Semantic Disagreement of Sleeping Beauty Problem
*This is the tenth post in my series on Anthropics. The previous one is* [*Beauty and the Bets*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cvCQgFFmELuyord7a/beauty-and-the-bets)*.*
Introduction
------------
In my previous posts I've been talking about the actual object-level ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gf4WtPfrELwRtfaM9/semantic-disagreement-of-sleeping-beauty-problem |
# some thoughts on LessOnline
*I mostly wrote this for facebook, but it ended up being a whole-ass post so I figured I'd put it here too.*
I'm helping run "LessOnline: A Festival of Writers Who Are Wrong On the Internet (But Striving To Be Less So)".
I'm incentivized to say nice things about the event. So, grain of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XtYuFgPWyopyzuLbv/some-thoughts-on-lessonline |
# Forecasting: the way I think about it
This is the first post in a little series I'm slowly writing on how I see forecasting, particularly conditional forecasting; what it's good for; and whether we should expect people to agree if they just talk to each other enough.
Views are my own. I work at the [Forecasting Res... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zMaRRKvbiwJpQzaTe/forecasting-the-way-i-think-about-it |
# I Got 95 Theses But a Glitch Ain’t One
[Or rather Samuel Hammond does](https://www.secondbest.ca/p/ninety-five-theses-on-ai). Tyler Cowen finds it interesting but not his view.
[I put up a market](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/how-many-of-samuel-hammonds-95-thes), and then started looking. Click through [t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2BvfGnZMx4Ei82qkk/i-got-95-theses-but-a-glitch-ain-t-one |
# AI #63: Introducing Alpha Fold 3
It was a remarkably quiet announcement. We now have Alpha Fold 3, it does a much improved job predicting all of life’s molecules and their interactions. It feels like everyone including me then shrugged and went back to thinking about other things. No cool new toy for most of us to p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FrBxFa3qMDvLypDEZ/ai-63-introducing-alpha-fold-3 |
# Four Unrelated Is Over
Somerville historically had a zoning ordinance limiting housing units to at most four unrelated people:
> any number of persons related by blood, marriage, adoption, or foster care agreement and up to three (3) additional unrelated persons living together as a single housekeeping unit
This i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NozxxqJwbaoEhLggk/four-unrelated-is-over |
# We might be missing some key feature of AI takeoff; it'll probably seem like "we could've seen this coming"
Predicting the future is hard, so it’s no surprise that we occasionally miss important developments.
However, several times recently, in the contexts of Covid forecasting and AI progress, I noticed that I mis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLwo67p7zBuPsjG5t/we-might-be-missing-some-key-feature-of-ai-takeoff-it-ll |
# AI Safety Strategies Landscape
*The full draft textbook is available* [*here*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1bPKt2xIebDfct9YSzfGPkc0PW5w4zT61m5Ob3SkJLnQ/edit#heading=h.s5znjvp3l4zi)*. This document constitutes the Chapter 3.*
Introduction
============
tldr: Even if we still don't know how to make AI developm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RzsXRbk2ETNqjhsma/ai-safety-strategies-landscape |
# Dyslucksia
*The curious tale of how I mistook my dyslexia for stupidity - and talked, sang, and drew my way out of it.*
Sometimes I tell people I’m dyslexic and they don’t believe me. I love to read, I can mostly write without error, and I’m fluent in more than one language.
Also, I don’t actually technically kno... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ANGmJnZL2fskHX6tj/dyslucksia |
# My thesis (Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology) explained in more depth
In March I [posted](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6dd4b4cAWQLDJEuHw/my-phd-thesis-algorithmic-bayesian-epistemology) a very short description of my PhD thesis, [Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology](https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.07949), on LessWrong. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j6EhfL2hRubaKL9ca/my-thesis-algorithmic-bayesian-epistemology-explained-in |
# What I learned from doing Quiz Bowl
I did Quiz Bowl throughout my time in high school, and looking back on it, it was a pretty positive thing to do! In this blog post, I want to make a list of some of the life lessons I have taken from Quiz Bowl.
---
If you know about Quiz Bowl, just skip to the next paragraph. Fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vEeoXYMvfjyTiWv2M/what-i-learned-from-doing-quiz-bowl |
# Why Care About Natural Latents?
Suppose Alice and Bob are two Bayesian agents in the same environment. They both basically understand how their environment works, so they generally agree on predictions about any specific directly-observable thing in the world - e.g. whenever they try to operationalize a bet, they fi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RTiuLzusJWyepFpbN/why-care-about-natural-latents |
# Linear infra-Bayesian Bandits
Linked is my MSc thesis, where I do regret analysis for an [infra-Bayesian](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/zB4f7QqKhBHa5b37a/introduction-to-the-infra-bayesianism-sequence)[^cahyhbs62m6] generalization of stochastic linear bandits.
The main significance that I see in this work is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zyN7K8NB8RzAft7KZ/linear-infra-bayesian-bandits |
# shortest goddamn bayes guide ever
// ODDS = YEP:NOPE
YEP, NOPE = MAKE UP SOME INITIAL ODDS WHO CARES
FOR EACH E IN EVIDENCE
YEP *= CHANCE OF E IF YEP
NOPE *= CHANCE OF E IF NOPE
ASSUME E // DO NOT DOUBLE COUNT
The thing to remember is that yeps and nopes never cross. The colon is a thick ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6vEJD3dtekaLgLME/shortest-goddamn-bayes-guide-ever |
# (Geometrically) Maximal Lottery-Lotteries Are Probably Not Unique
*epistemic/ontological status: almost certainly all of the following -*
* *a careful research-grade writeup of some results I arrived at a genuinely kinda shiny open(?) question in theoretical* [*psephology*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psepholog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yqu6hvLSR8S5GHNt6/geometrically-maximal-lottery-lotteries-are-probably-not |
# Podcast with Yoshua Bengio on Why AI Labs are “Playing Dice with Humanity’s Future”
> This is exactly what I'm afraid of. That some human will build machines that are going to be - not just superior to us - but not attached to what we want, but what they want. And I think it's playing dice with humanity's future. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HWdyfGpQJKo35Hurg/podcast-with-yoshua-bengio-on-why-ai-labs-are-playing-dice |
# Pascal's Mugging and the Order of Quantification
One of the fun things to do when learning first order logic is to consider how the meaning of propositions dramatically changes based on small switches in the syntax. This is in contrast to natural language, where the meaning of a phrase can be ambiguous and we natura... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qmxK9thLfMBLGFKwd/pascal-s-mugging-and-the-order-of-quantification |
# The Alignment Problem No One Is Talking About
*The following is the first in a 6 part series about humanity's own alignment problem, one we need to solve, first.*
What Is Alignment?
=====================
 on Llama 3 70B to create a bad agent that can attempt mal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lgq2DcuahKmLktDvC/applying-refusal-vector-ablation-to-a-llama-3-70b-agent |
# MATS Winter 2023-24 Retrospective
Co-Authors: [@Rocket](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/rocket?mention=user), [@LauraVaughan](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/lauravaughan?mention=user), [@McKennaFitzgerald](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/mckennafitzgerald?mention=user), [@Christian Smith](https://www.lesswrong.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z87fSrxQb4yLXKcTk/mats-winter-2023-24-retrospective |
# Should I Finish My Bachelor's Degree?
To some, it might seem like a strange question. If you think of _being college-educated_ as a marker of class (or personhood), the fact that I don't have a degree at age of thirty-six (!!) probably looks like a scandalous anomaly, which it would be only natural for me to want to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8pmimprBizW8Qpf5o/should-i-finish-my-bachelor-s-degree |
# Ethics and prospects of AI related jobs?
I've been on the lookout for new jobs recently and one thing I have noticed is that the market seems *flooded* with ads for AI-related jobs. What I mean is not work on building models (or aligning them, alas), but rather, work on building applications using generative AI or o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BvaJzoFJ4JqukP3kp/ethics-and-prospects-of-ai-related-jobs |
# Questions are usually too cheap
It is easier to ask than to answer.
That’s my whole point.
**It is much cheaper to ask questions than answer them so beware of situations where it is implied that asking and answering are equal. **
Here are some examples:
-----------------------
Let's say there is a maths game. I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WnmToqeeLcxHFjLDi/questions-are-usually-too-cheap |
# New intro textbook on AIXI
[Marcus Hutter](http://www.hutter1.net/index.htm) and his PhD students [David Quarel](http://www.scifuture.org/exploring-the-frontiers-of-ai-with-david-quarel-emerging-capabilities-interpretability-and-future-impacts/) and [Elliot Catt](https://catt.id/index.html) have just published a new... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nAR6yhptyMuwPLokc/new-intro-textbook-on-aixi |
# Resources for learning about poise / gracefulness?
I'm doing some initial investigation for a [Notes on Virtues](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xqgwpmwDYsn8osoje) sequence write-up about poise & gracefulness (possibly touching also on related things like confidence, composure, cool, gravitas, command, bearing, etc.) se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zHB5ypPfYs7mm9m7/resources-for-learning-about-poise-gracefulness |
# Can we build a better Public Doublecrux?
Something I'd like to try at LessOnline is to somehow iterate on the "Public Doublecrux" format. I'm not sure if I'll end up focusing on it, but here are some ideas.
Public Doublecrux is a more truthseeking oriented version of Public Debate. The goal of a debate is to change... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAqqeXcau9y2yiJdi/can-we-build-a-better-public-doublecrux |
# How To Do Patching Fast
This post outlines an efficient implementation of Edge Patching that massively outperforms common hook-based implementations. This implementation is available to use in my new library, [AutoCircuit](https://ufo-101.github.io/auto-circuit), and was first introduced by [Li et al. (2023)](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/caZ3yR5GnzbZe2yJ3/how-to-do-patching-fast |
# If language is for communication, what does that imply about LLMs?
Noam Chomsky famously believes that language originated to facilitate thought, but then came to be a medium of communication. Others believe the reverse, that it originated as a facility for communication which turned out to facilitate thinking. That... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mDHiTTf3maDj8W9oL/if-language-is-for-communication-what-does-that-imply-about |
# Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters)
Do you like using numbers to represent [uncertainty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory) and [preference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility), but also care about things like fairness and consent? Are you an altruist on a budget, looking to [do the most ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gJGYDsyxj3rZDp86E/geometric-utilitarianism-and-why-it-matters |
# The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes
(Part 1)
***TLDR:** Things seem bad. But chart-wielding optimists keep telling us that things are better than they’ve ever been. What gives? Hypothesis: the point of conversation is to* **solve problems***, so public discourse will focus on the problems—making us all think that th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zCN5KQju2AXr8Y7Bj/the-natural-selection-of-bad-vibes-part-1 |
# What comes after Roam's renaissance?
A new year has come. It's 2024 and note-taking isn’t cool anymore. The once-blooming space has had its moment. Moreover, the almighty [Roam Research](https://roamresearch.com/) isn’t the only king anymore.
The hype is officially over.
At this time of year, when many are busy re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CoqFpaorNHsWxRzvz/what-comes-after-roam-s-renaissance |
# Beware unfinished bridges
> This guy don't wanna battle, he's shook
> 'Cause ain't no such things as halfway crooks
>
> \- [8 Mile](https://genius.com/364420)
There is a commonly cited [typology of cyclists](https://jenniferdill.net/types-of-cyclists/) where cyclists are divided into [four groups](https://miro.m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9MKHgLD3yshN5SJF/beware-unfinished-bridges |
# Building intuition with spaced repetition systems
**Do you ever go to a lecture, follow it thinking it makes total sense, then look back at your notes later and realize it makes no sense?** This used to happen to me, but I’ve learned how to use spaced repetition to fully avoid this if I want. I’m going to try to con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gwavKiKXf97NLNC2n/building-intuition-with-spaced-repetition-systems |
# Partitioned Book Club
Partitioned Book Club (working title) is a specific kind of one-off meetup where attendees coordinate to read different chapters of the same book before the meetup. The meetup consists of each read chapter getting briefly summarized by its reader(s), and then a more general discussion of the bo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jK9Pzb9FfsX7Nnv4y/partitioned-book-club |
# Understanding rationality vs. ideology debates
\[This was originally intended as a Facebook post, but it grew to the point where it felt way too long for that.\]
For a while now I've been trying to wrap my head around what I'll loosely call "rationality vs. ideology" debates. Very roughly, these are debates where a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oowNan3scknsSdx2X/understanding-rationality-vs-ideology-debates |
# Retrospective on Mathematical Boundaries Workshop
*mostly written by Evan Miyazono*
Minimum viable introduction
---------------------------
* We ran a workshop on Mathematical Boundaries from April 10-14. This was the successor of the [*Conceptual Boundaries Workshop*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tLb86DhrTYg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NitP3AsMeuycJQbfa/retrospective-on-mathematical-boundaries-workshop |
# Benefitial habits/personal rules with very minimal tradeoffs?
I'm looking for personal rules one might live by which adhere to a specific criteria outlined below, following an example.
I have a personal rule I've been following which is "No looking at screens in the bed where I sleep" I find this to be an extreme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TMNqxfJHZwdQHLZ5D/benefitial-habits-personal-rules-with-very-minimal-tradeoffs |
# What you really mean when you claim to support “UBI for job automation”
*Author’s Note: Though I’m currently a governance researcher at* [*Convergence Analysis*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)*, this post is unaffiliated with Convergence. The opinions expressed are solely my own.*
You’ve seen it a dozen time... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8CY9TCK2oaGPrDheY/what-you-really-mean-when-you-claim-to-support-ubi-for-job |
# Monthly Roundup #18: May 2024
As I note in the third section, I will be attending [LessOnline](https://less.online/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) at month’s end at Lighthaven in Berkeley. If that is your kind of event, then consider going, and buy your ticket today before prices go up.
This month’s edition ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9GLj9DqfpsJBRKHRr/monthly-roundup-18-may-2024 |
# Against Student Debt Cancellation From All Sides of the Political Compass
A stance against student debt cancellation doesn’t rely on the assumptions of any single ideology. Strong cases against student debt cancellation can be made based on the fundamental values of any section of the political compass. In no partic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ds5ShpaLLdBzkAuvT/against-student-debt-cancellation-from-all-sides-of-the |
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