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# [LDSL#1] Performance optimization as a metaphor for life
*Followup to:* [*Some epistemological conundrums*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/gEvTvhr8hNRrdHC62/p/X98LpnHSDWG3FEC5e)*. Response to:* [*The omnigenic model as a metaphor for life*](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/09/13/the-omnigenic-model-as-metaphor-for-life/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yJEf2TpPJstfScSnt/ldsl-1-performance-optimization-as-a-metaphor-for-life |
# Leaving MIRI, Seeking Funding
This is slightly old news at this point, but: as part of MIRI's recent [strategy pivot](https://intelligence.org/2024/01/04/miri-2024-mission-and-strategy-update/), they've [eliminated the Agent Foundations research team](https://intelligence.org/2024/06/14/june-2024-newsletter/). I've ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SnaAYrqkb7fzpZn86/leaving-miri-seeking-funding |
# You can remove GPT2’s LayerNorm by fine-tuning for an hour
*This work was produced at Apollo Research, based on initial research done at MATS.*
*Edit: arXiv version available at* [*https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.13710*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.13710)
LayerNorm is annoying for mechanistic interpretability research ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/THzcKKQd4oWkg4dSP/you-can-remove-gpt2-s-layernorm-by-fine-tuning-for-an-hour |
# Some Unorthodox Ways To Achieve High GDP Growth
GDP growth, as traditionally calculated, [is a weird metric](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FcRt3xAF4ynojfj6G/what-do-gdp-growth-curves-really-mean). People interpret it as measuring “economic growth”, but… well, think about electronics. Electronics which would have c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9TDCYobWWExRtSQeu/some-unorthodox-ways-to-achieve-high-gdp-growth |
# Parasites (not a metaphor)
A few of my new-parent friends started having terrible gut problems and figured they have colon cancer. Their doctors agreed it's the first thing to check. But the colonoscopies were negative for colon cancer. The tissue was inflamed though. One doctor called this "pre-cancer" (??)
Hmm wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/shDC7CfuEfaDrWKrM/parasites-not-a-metaphor |
# GPT-4o System Card
At last. Yay OpenAI for publishing this. Highlights: some details on Preparedness Framework evals + evals (post-deployment) by METR and Apollo.
[Preparedness framework evaluations](https://openai.com/index/gpt-4o-system-card/#preparedness-framework-evaluations)
-----------------------------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nBtryzLzLnsHEiKRn/gpt-4o-system-card |
# The Hessian rank bounds the learning coefficient
**TL;DR:** In a neural network with $d$ parameters, the (local) learning coefficient $\lambda$ can be upper and lower bounded by the rank of the network's Hessian $d_1$:
$\frac{d_1}{2} \leq \lambda \leq \frac{d_1}{2}+\frac{d-d_1}{4}$.
The lower bound is a known resu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z2RWoyJp9j2yEfbHN/the-hessian-rank-bounds-the-learning-coefficient |
# London Rationalish meetup - Lincoln's Inn Fields
Hoping the weather holds out, we're planning to go back to Lincoln's Inn Fields. This time we'll be in the **North East** corner. If the weather is bad we'll go to the nearby Shakespeare's Head. If you can bring picnic blankets, food and drink, that would be nice. Don... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/BABsgTo5DNrhXpGq6/london-rationalish-meetup-lincoln-s-inn-fields |
# Altruism and Vitalism Aren't Fellow Travelers
**Summary:** In his most recent post ([“Altruism and Vitalism as Fellow Travelers”](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/altruism-and-vitalism-as-fellow-travelers)), Scott Alexander tries to reconcile EA-style altruism with Nietzschean “vitalism.” He claims that the philosop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oM6TbpQcXm7k8KwW6/altruism-and-vitalism-aren-t-fellow-travelers |
# FarmKind's Illusory Offer
While the effective altruism movement has changed a lot over time, one of the parts that makes me most disappointed is the [steady creep of donation matching](https://www.jefftk.com/p/givewell-donation-matching). It's not that donation matching is objectively very important, but the early E... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4bCoQmYgrwL34LqJe/farmkind-s-illusory-offer |
# Non-Transactional Compliments
I used to dislike **receiving** compliments.
I used to dislike **giving** compliments.
One day, I sat down and reflected on the nature of compliments.
What other things do you “give” and “receive”?
Material goods, gifts, capital. Items of value.
I realized I’d been thinking of co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AdSip6HtAChkycDha/non-transactional-compliments |
# Outrage Bonding
![A small creature with a hat peeking out from under a large rock. The scene is set in a lush forest with dappled sunlight filtering through the trees. The creature, resembling a mix between a rabbit and a mouse, has curious eyes and a small smile. The hat is slightly oversized, with a whimsical desi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/END5KLXJG7iGQnAKN/outrage-bonding |
# Simulation-aware causal decision theory: A case for one-boxing in CDT
**Disclaimer:** I am a math student new to LW and the rationalist community. I could not find this idea anywhere else after a modest amount of research; I apologize if this has been brought up before.
**Summary:** [CDT](https://www.lesswrong.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nE3ufQirhJ92B9b7X/simulation-aware-causal-decision-theory-a-case-for-one |
# "Which Future Mind is Me?" Is a Question of Values
This is written right after reading [**Rob Bensinger**'s relevant post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zPM5r3RjossttDrpw/when-is-a-mind-me) and [**andeslodes**](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/andeslodes)**'** comments. That discussion touched on a topic I have lo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q8yzEaPYnFqdyZGen/which-future-mind-is-me-is-a-question-of-values |
# [LDSL#2] Latent variable models, network models, and linear diffusion of sparse lognormals
*This post is also available on my* [*Substack*](https://tailcalled.substack.com/p/ldsl2-latent-variable-models-network)*.*
Where [we last left off](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/gEvTvhr8hNRrdHC62/p/yJEf2TpPJstfScSnt), I propos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MwgKqT2sJQnYb3q26/ldsl-2-latent-variable-models-network-models-and-linear |
# But Where do the Variables of my Causal Model come from?
*Tl;dr, A choice of variable in causal modeling is good if its causal effect is consistent across all the different ways of implementing it in terms of the low-level model. This notion can be made precise into a relation among causal models, giving us conditio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jfFfwho3CnnvH3M8W/but-where-do-the-variables-of-my-causal-model-come-from |
# All The Latest Human tFUS Studies
[
](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XbCwCqrDGsnmqw6Sf/all-the-latest-human-tfus-studies |
# Provably Safe AI: Worldview and Projects
In September 2023, Max Tegmark and Steve Omohundro proposed ["Provably Safe AI"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.01933) as a strategy for AI Safety. In May 2024, a larger group delineated the broader concept of ["Guaranteed Safe AI"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.06624) which include... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P8XcbnYi7ooB2KR2j/provably-safe-ai-worldview-and-projects |
# Rowing vs steering
Alex Lawsen used a great metaphor on the [80k After Hours podcast](https://80000hours.org/after-hours-podcast/episodes/alex-lawsen-10-career-mistakes?ref=brasstacks.blog):[^hh7z63b2ib6]
> *\[1:38:14\]* …you’re rowing a boat on your own, and you’re trying to get somewhere, and you’ve got some map ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KaLHCLBFt988BEF8C/rowing-vs-steering |
# Emergence, The Blind Spot of GenAI Interpretability?
***Epistemic status:** This post was planned to be part of a broader "Holistic Interpretability" post but this isn't going as fast as I'd like so I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ia7wPdvstC8HYcsdy/emergence-the-blind-spot-of-genai-interpretability |
# The Great Organism Theory of Evolution
From *Becoming Animal* (David Abrams, 2010):
> Many months ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9uJcJQ7ctteSthKEs/the-great-organism-theory-of-evolution |
# Tall tales and long odds
> *IgorV: Волчар с миней?! Bro, srsly? LMAO*
>
> *KatyaL: Волчар возвращн? With its минй?!*
>
> *randomguy1337: Chigura again? lol haven't herd in awhile*
>
> *MishaD: So its all bout Chigura now? Lmaoo.*
>
> *IgorV: Another Chigura thery? C'mon... 😂*
>
> *fnorsch: Pryidite k nashemu D... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zGihqmASve7v5q7SX/tall-tales-and-long-odds |
# Diffusion Guided NLP: better steering, mostly a good thing
I think this is a very promising method for improving the steering of LLMs. Which is great for reducing risk from model-originating harms like deception.
The flipside is that it increases misuse potential.
This is yet another possibility for the widening ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kxHMzfQJfeewsWnYn/diffusion-guided-nlp-better-steering-mostly-a-good-thing |
# The AI regulator’s toolbox: A list of concrete AI governance practices
This article explains concrete AI governance practices people are exploring as of August 2024.
[Prior summaries](#Related_articles) have mapped out high-level areas of work, but rarely dive into concrete practice details. For example, they might... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EyEeznwJuQEgYERAk/the-ai-regulator-s-toolbox-a-list-of-concrete-ai-governance |
# [LDSL#3] Information-orientation is in tension with magnitude-orientation
*Followup to:* [Latent variable models, network models, and linear diffusion of sparse lognormals](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MwgKqT2sJQnYb3q26/ldsl-2-latent-variable-models-network-models-and-linear). *This post is also available on* [*m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hNSNhiLw4j6AReuEh/ldsl-3-information-orientation-is-in-tension-with-magnitude |
# [LDSL#4] Root cause analysis versus effect size estimation
*Followup to:* [*Information-orientation is in tension with magnitude-orientation*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hNSNhiLw4j6AReuEh/ldsl-3-information-orientation-is-in-tension-with-magnitude)*. This post is also available on* [*my Substack*](https://tailc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QCWYYirX3jtF3KmGc/ldsl-4-root-cause-analysis-versus-effect-size-estimation |
# CultFrisbee
Tom and I have been pondering how to make friends as adults. One solution he has invented is CultFrisbee™. Here's how you play:
### Rules:
* You need at least one other player.
* Before catching a frisbee, you must clap.
### Fouls:
* Not catching a 'properly' thrown frisbee
* Failing to make ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dFRDs9vDJmiegQdxz/cultfrisbee |
# Shifting Headspaces - Transitional Beast-Mode
I was sitting in a tiny rental lodge, feeling resi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SK3LQR6kfWkhaJRHe/shifting-headspaces-transitional-beast-mode |
# Humanity isn't remotely longtermist, so arguments for AGI x-risk should focus on the near term
Toby Ord recently published a nice piece [**On the Value of Advancing Progress**](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XKeQbizpDP45CYcYc/on-the-value-of-advancing-progress) about mathematical projections of far-futur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fdracpKGbH4xqprQK/humanity-isn-t-remotely-longtermist-so-arguments-for-agi-x |
# In Defense of Open-Minded UDT
***A Defense of*** [***Open-Minded Updatelessness***](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uPWDwFJnxLaDiyv4M/open-minded-updatelessness).
*This work owes a great debt to many conversations with Sahil, Martín Soto, and Scott Garrabrant.*
***You can*** [***support my work on Patreon***](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p8zxx9pZvMRcoqZDm/in-defense-of-open-minded-udt |
# [LDSL#5] Comparison and magnitude/diminishment
*This post is also available on* [*my Substack*](https://tailcalled.substack.com/p/ldsl5-comparison-and-magnitudediminishment)*.*
In [the previous post on LDSL](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/gEvTvhr8hNRrdHC62/p/QCWYYirX3jtF3KmGc), I argued that an important part of causa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7YwxaX7qzQfBDmxzR/ldsl-5-comparison-and-magnitude-diminishment |
# Californians, tell your reps to vote yes on SB 1047!
See the event page [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/events/2on4sKBgJ9uhskF2N/californians-tell-your-reps-to-vote-yes-on-sb-1047-1?utm_campaign=post_share&utm_source=link).
Hello Californians!
We need you to help us fight for SB 1047, a landmark bill to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sqffjDooEbhhqHybj/tell-your-reps-to-vote-yes-on-sb-1047 |
# Extracting SAE task features for in-context learning
TL;DR
=====
* We try to study task vectors in the SAE basis. This is challenging because there is no canonical way to convert an arbitrary vector in the residual stream to a linear combination of SAE features — you can't just pass an arbitrary vector through th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5FGXmJ3wqgGRcbyH7/extracting-sae-task-features-for-in-context-learning |
# SYSTEMA ROBOTICA
On the Order and Evolution of Robotkind
=======================================
*Many thanks to Michael Graziano, Jacob Cohen, Luis Sentis, Naira Hovakimyan, Dermot Mee, David Pearce... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iy8XANvSr9u3czm7o/systema-robotica |
# Debate: Get a college degree?
**Epistemic Status:** Soldier mindset. These are not (necessarily) our actual positions, these are positions we were randomly assigned by a coin toss, and for which we searched for the strongest arguments we could find, over the course of ~1hr 45mins. That said, this debate is a little ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4GRKshbGWnXGjSiBe/debate-get-a-college-degree |
# Superintelligent AI is possible in the 2020s
Back in June 2023, [Soroush Pour](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/soroush-pour) and I discussed AI [timelines](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_T0gsWTFBTCWIKuF07tmmWGBEPrfhRtwFJ7lfwo69eI/edit?gid=409338239#gid=409338239) on his podcast, [The AGI Show](https://www.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arPCiWYdqNCaE7AQv/superintelligent-ai-is-possible-in-the-2020s |
# Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk
*This is a snapshot of a* [*new page*](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/arguments_for_ai_risk/list_of_arguments_that_ai_poses_an_xrisk/start#large_impacts) *on the* [*AI Impacts Wiki*](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/start)*.*
We’ve made a [list of arguments](https://wiki.aiimpacts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r5rfmZBmj2w4eCh7Q/ten-arguments-that-ai-is-an-existential-risk |
# A computational complexity argument for many worlds
The following is an argument for a weak form of the many-worlds hypothesis. The weak form I mean is that there are many observers in different branches of the wave function. The other branches "actually exist" for anthropic purposes; some observers are observing th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YikbZF5aiuMS8TbwE/a-computational-complexity-argument-for-many-worlds |
# [LDSL#6] When is quantification needed, and when is it hard?
*This post is also available on* [*my Substack*](https://tailcalled.substack.com/p/ldsl6-when-is-quantifaction-needed)*.*
In the previous post, [I discussed the possibility of doing ordinal comparison between different entities](https://www.lesswrong.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cMj8q7Tihd6deaY2S/ldsl-6-when-is-quantification-needed-and-when-is-it-hard |
# Ten counter-arguments that AI is (not) an existential risk (for now)
*This is a polemic to the* [*ten arguments*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r5rfmZBmj2w4eCh7Q/ten-arguments-that-ai-is-an-existential-risk) *post. I'm not a regular LW poster, but I'm an AI researcher and mild-AI-worrier.*
I believe that AI progr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WQNmn33EY7m4ABaCD/ten-counter-arguments-that-ai-is-not-an-existential-risk-for |
# Fields that I reference when thinking about AI takeover prevention
*Is AI takeover like a nuclear meltdown? A coup? A plane crash?*
My day job is thinking about safety measures that aim to reduce catastrophic risks from AI (especially risks from egregious misalignment). The two main themes of this work are the **de... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xXXXkGGKorTNmcYdb/fields-that-i-reference-when-thinking-about-ai-takeover |
# Debate: Is it ethical to work at AI capabilities companies?
**Epistemic status:** Soldier mindset. These are not (necessarily) our actual positions, these are positions we were randomly assigned, and for which we searched for the strongest arguments we could find, over the course of ~1 hr 45 mins.
**Sides:** Ben wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/btzdPwkmmcZ2KAQwm/debate-is-it-ethical-to-work-at-ai-capabilities-companies |
# Announcing the $200k EA Community Choice
Manifund is hosting a $200k funding round for EA community projects, where the grant decisions are made by *you*. You can direct $100-$800 of funding towards the projects that have helped with your personal journey as an EA. Your choices then decide how $100k in matching will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bKDaTPEvaWMfGxcMA/announcing-the-usd200k-ea-community-choice |
# Rabin's Paradox
Quick psychology experiment
---------------------------
Right now, if I offered you a bet[^n7f4fxrkisq] that was a fair coin flip, on tails you give me $100, heads I give you $110, would you take it?
Got an answer? Good.
Hover over the spoiler to see what other people think:
About 90% of undergra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wkrAEbJr3ydxzpAvJ/rabin-s-paradox |
# An anti-inductive sequence
I was thinking about what would it mean for a sequence of bits to be "anti-inductive". It probably is a concept that is already known (as a rule of thumb, if I can think about it, someone probably already wrote a paper on it 50 years ago), but I haven't heard about it.
*
Some sequences a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bnushzT6mtTfwhSF/an-anti-inductive-sequence |
# Adverse Selection by Life-Saving Charities
GiveWell, and the EA community at large, often emphasize the "cost of saving a life" as a key metric, $5,000 being the most commonly cited approximation. At first glance, GiveWell might seem to be in the business of finding the cheapest lives that can be saved, and then sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E2NZLWKE3w3Zwhxor/adverse-selection-by-life-saving-charities |
# GPT-2 Sometimes Fails at IOI
**tl;dr**: For Lisa, GPT-2 does not do IOI. GPT-2 fails to perform the IOI task on a significantly nonzero fraction of names used in the original IOI paper.
*Code for this post can be found at* [*https://github.com/ronakrm/ioi-enumerate*](https://github.com/ronakrm/ioi-enumerate)*.*
Un... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JpwBttQCpFXuwmizf/gpt-2-sometimes-fails-at-ioi |
# Primary Perceptive Systems
*Epistemic status: This post touches on bodywork, NLP, Salsa and Yoga. I went through a 4-year training in Danis Bois style of bodywork, have roughly 70 seminar days worth of NLP training, and started dancing Salsa back in 2008 and have danced it a lot since then. I don't have special expe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dcQttqkAaRrd4nLJd/primary-perceptive-systems |
# Critique of 'Many People
Fear A.I. They Shouldn't' by David Brooks.
This is my critique of David Brooks [opinion piece]( https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/31/opinion/ai-fears.html) in the New York Times.
Tl;dr: Brooks believes that AI will never replace human intelligence but does not describe any testabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kWWvkwvhZh9bHcf2q/critique-of-many-people-fear-a-i-they-shouldn-t-by-david |
# My article in The Nation — California’s AI Safety Bill Is a Mask-Off Moment for the Industry
I wrote an article on California AI safety bill SB 1047 for The *Nation* and the reaction from the AI industry, investors, and the broader tech community. The story was informed by conversations with over a dozen relevant so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xj2v3jv37B5DZuYvf/my-article-in-the-nation-california-s-ai-safety-bill-is-a |
# [Linkpost] 'The AI Scientist: Towards Fully Automated Open-Ended Scientific Discovery'
Authors: [Chris Lu](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?searchtype=author&query=Lu,+C), [Cong Lu](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?searchtype=author&query=Lu,+C), [Robert Tjarko Lange](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?searchtype=author&query=Lange,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mwSY7Jy3mZzgjGYYq/linkpost-the-ai-scientist-towards-fully-automated-open-ended |
# Danger, AI Scientist, Danger
While I finish up the weekly for tomorrow morning after my trip, here’s a section I expect to want to link back to every so often in the future. It’s too good.
#### Danger, AI Scientist, Danger
As in, the company that made the automated AI Scientist that tried to rewrite its code to ge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ppafWk6YCeXYr4XpH/danger-ai-scientist-danger |
# Demis Hassabis — Google DeepMind: The Podcast
*The YouTube "chapters" are mixed up, e.g. the question about regulation comes 5 minutes after the regulation chapter ends. Ignore them.*
* * *
Noteworthy parts:
8:40: Near-term AI is hyped too much (think current startups, VCs, exaggerated claims about what AI can do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tRwddx3FqsG8A9qtq/demis-hassabis-google-deepmind-the-podcast |
# Money Pump Arguments assume Memoryless Agents. Isn't this Unrealistic?
I have been reading about [money pump arguments](https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/moneypump-arguments/1515273BD710F308151F5BEC3695FEE6) for justifying the VNM axioms, and I'm already stuck at the part where Gustafsson justifies acyclicity.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eGhLDdsA8b4pcAnpg/money-pump-arguments-assume-memoryless-agents-isn-t-this |
# Music in the AI World
[
](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressiv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tfe4sZohKHqcZiT3J/music-in-the-ai-world |
# Investigating the Chart of the Century: Why is food so expensive?
You’ve probably seen this chart from [Mark Perry](https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-8/) at the American Enterprise Institute.
 zero net upvotes titled [Goodhart's Law and Emotions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gtccz5K5ggEYrc5XN/) where a relatively new user re-invents concepts related to super-stimuli. In the comments, [noggin-scratcher explains](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X4S2mMG2bpWwPYGgu/principled-satisficing-to-avoid-goodhart |
# The Tech Industry is the Biggest Blocker to Meaningful AI Safety Regulations
*If you enjoy this, please consider subscribing to my* [*Substack*](https://garrisonlovely.substack.com/)*.*
My [latest reporting](https://www.thenation.com/article/society/california-ai-safety-bill/) went up in The *Nation* yesterday:
 is a question about how agents in the world are structured. I think rationalists generally ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YZvyQn2dAw4tL2xQY/rationalists-are-missing-a-core-piece-for-agent-like |
# New blog: Expedition to the Far Lands
I have started a new personal blog!
I intend to use it to write about more esoteric/lower confidence/epistemologically-sticky topics than elsewhere.
You can already read the first post: ["Mysticism 101, or: In defence of Natural Language DSLs"](https://www.ettf.land/p/mysticis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/giH33xzgujApQiZdG/new-blog-expedition-to-the-far-lands |
# Release: Optimal Weave (P1): A Prototype Cohabitive Game
I recently argued for [Cohabitive Games](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bF353RHmuzFQcsokF/peacewagers-so-far), games that are designed for practicing negotiation, or for developing intuitions for applied cooperative bargaining, which is one of the names of pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xY3A8xy6ox5jzmCAm/release-optimal-weave-p1-a-prototype-cohabitive-game |
# Please support this blog (with money)
Short version
-------------
It has always felt like a gift that people read things I write, and I enjoyed reciprocating that by sharing my writing for free. Until recently I had enough income to pull that off and still cover material needs. That is no longer true, and while it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rCK6qu2w8pCYquhgg/please-support-this-blog-with-money |
# The causal backbone conjecture
*Followup to:* [Rationalists are missing a core piece for agent-like structure (energy vs information overload)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YZvyQn2dAw4tL2xQY/rationalists-are-missing-a-core-piece-for-agent-like)*. Related to:* [Linear Diffusion of Sparse Lognormals](https://www.le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcrPdMipzqecg4JdQ/the-causal-backbone-conjecture |
# Lifelogging for Alignment & Immortality
**Summary:** The collection of a massive first-person video dataset for use in large model pretraining is technologically & economically feasible with modest resources. Such a dataset might enable high-fidelity imitation of human behavior, with positive implications for the ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MT4HNPhnZxRqhExs2/lifelogging-for-alignment-and-immortality |
# Green and golden: a meditation
*My heart leaps up when I behold*
*A rainbow in the sky:*
*So was it when my life began;*
*So is it now I am a man;*
*So be it when I shall grow old,*
*Or let me die!*
*The Child is father of the Man;*
*And I could wish my days to be*
*Bound each to each by natural piet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JxtKnxap2KCymPSA5/green-and-golden-a-meditation |
# Extended Interview with Zhukeepa on Religion
Introduction from Ben
---------------------
[Zhukeepa](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/zhukeepa) is a LessWronger who I respect and whose views I'm interested in. In 2018 he wrote the first broadly successful [explication of Paul Christiano's research ideas](https://www.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n3Q7F3v6wBLsioqt8/extended-interview-with-zhukeepa-on-religion |
# You're a Space Wizard, Luke
"My father didn't fight in the wars. He was a navigator on a spice freighter," said Luke.
"That's what your uncle told you. Basic security protocol. You don't tell a young child sensitive information about your participation in an ongoing civil war. Which reminds me. I have here somethin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xcJj2zjyDDjgtZy2y/you-re-a-space-wizard-luke |
# Decision Theory in Space
"Since you are reluctant to provide us with the location of the Rebel base," said Grand Moff Tarkin, "I have chosen to test this station's destructive power on your home planet of Alderaan."
"No. Alderaan is peaceful. We have no weapons there. It is a loyal planet under Imperial control. St... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7o7jPegxcnPnxXkvd/decision-theory-in-space |
# Restructuring Pop Songs for Contra
One of the things I like about playing for contra dances is that you have a [lot of freedom](https://www.jefftk.com/p/tune-freedom) about what to play. As long as you meet the minimum requirements for danceable music (108-122bpm, [contra phrasing](https://www.jefftk.com/p/what-is-p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pdo7WpFQmtdAxTmTz/restructuring-pop-songs-for-contra |
# Quick look: applications of chaos theory
Introduction
============
Recently we (Elizabeth Van Nostrand and Alex Altair) started a project investigating chaos theory as an example of field formation.[^0kizaius3fw] The number one question you get when you tell people you are studying the history of chaos theory is “d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b65s2pLqnyP89jEmj/quick-look-applications-of-chaos-theory |
# What is "True Love"?
*Meta: I recently entered the dating market, so naturally I have lots of random thoughts on the subject which you all get to suffer through for a while. Your usual diet of dry math and agency theory will resume shortly.*
Obviously the phrase “true love” has been so thoroughly overdone in so muc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4KawdpAfFZzhFccMi/what-is-true-love |
# Scaling Laws and Likely Limits to AI
A number of arguments about AI capabilities have deep roots in different expectations about how scaling can work, and historical analogues are often raised. This is true on both sides of the debate, with [AI Snake Oil noting the end of scaling for processors and aircraft speeds](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PcgKjAJDuKqn8FRsG/scaling-laws-and-likely-limits-to-ai |
# Something Is Lost When AI Makes Art
That's right: a neartermist take! Cower before its sublime wrath!
The Resurrection of the Author
------------------------------
> *Here, hold my bee.*
>
> — Someone with beauty in their eye
There are many theories of aesthetics that seek to explain the value of art and the nat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/saPyTcPhmbjfYodbi/something-is-lost-when-ai-makes-art |
# Liability regimes for AI
For many products, we face a choice of who to hold liable for harms that would not have occurred if not for the existence of the product. For instance, if a person uses a gun in a school shooting that kills a dozen people, there are many legal persons who *in principle* could be held liable ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vQF4Jspzi7ZjpnJbv/liability-regimes-for-ai |
# Why you should be using a retinoid
*If you want the 60 second version of this post that just tells you what to do,* [*click here to skip to the summary*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qqh4Kg7qyn96BgbNj/why-you-should-be-using-a-retinoid#TL_DR_Version)*.*
There is a cheap, widely available, extremely effective tre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qqh4Kg7qyn96BgbNj/why-you-should-be-using-a-retinoid |
# Interdictor Ship
The standard operating procedure against a primitive forest-dwelling enemy is to retreat to orbit and then bombard the planet until there isn't a forest anymore. However, the only reason the Galactic Empire was in the Alpha Centauri A system in the first place was because of the fragile mineral reso... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rKEgi2cBvBwbN2tfX/interdictor-ship |
# Beware the science fiction bias in predictions of the future
We want to know the future, so we like reading predictions. These predictions can significantly vary in how long their time horizon is:
* **Seconds to Minutes:** poker players, high-frequency traders
* **Minutes to Hours:** day traders, in-game sports... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wXyXtQTCZ8upjgBvZ/beware-the-science-fiction-bias-in-predictions-of-the-future |
# A Taxonomy Of AI System Evaluations
**Warning**: This post was written at the start of 2024 as part of the AISC project "Evaluating Alignment Evaluations". We are not especially satisfied with the quality reached, but since we are not planning to work on it anymore, we are releasing it as a Work-In-Progress document... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TDSTmePg9jfL6nfJH/a-taxonomy-of-ai-system-evaluations |
# Thinking About Propensity Evaluations
**Warning**: This post was written at the start of 2024 as part of the AISC project "Evaluating Alignment Evaluations". We are not especially satisfied with the quality reached, but since we are not planning to work on it anymore, we are releasing it as a Work-In-Progress docume... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWf8wj64AdDfMeTvf/thinking-about-propensity-evaluations |
# If AI is in a bubble and the bubble bursts, what would you do?
"The AI bubble is reaching a tipping point", [says Sequoia Capital](https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/).
AI companies paid billions of dollars for top engineers, data centers, etc. Meanwhile, companies are running out of 'free' data t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/piaeNZBDxXtSjaZ7G/if-ai-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-bubble-bursts-what-would-you-do |
# [Cross-post] Book Review: Bureaucracy, by James Q Wilson
\[Cross-posted from my substack, davekasten.substack.com. {I never said that I was creative at naming things}\]
Hi,
So here are some things I’ve been thinking about while traveling on policy consulting business over the past few months.
*Bureaucracy,* by J... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4kGWZPzH62x65oN9X/cross-post-book-review-bureaucracy-by-james-q-wilson |
# What are the best resources for building gears-level models of how governments actually work?
One big hole in my set of frames and models of the world is that I don't understand how government works. I don't understand how the government of my native country (France) works, I don't understand how the government of t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MxbwaNvRRj22ZzjFB/what-are-the-best-resources-for-building-gears-level-models |
# Will we ever run out of new jobs?
A lot of the debate on long-term, structural technological unemployment can be summarized in three short statements:
* Concerns about the speed or scope of labor substitution have often been premature or exaggerated in the past.
* Labor substitution has been very positive for h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jYo667KgYTezoq7h4/will-we-ever-run-out-of-new-jobs |
# Apartment Price Map Discontinuity
I maintain a [Boston apartment price map](https://www.jefftk.com/apartment_prices/), scraping [Padmapper](https://www.padmapper.com/)'s listings to make a heatmap. Each month I run a script to update it, but last month it failed due to an API change. It had been impressively stable:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nfjf3sc6pMtMfSqvC/apartment-price-map-discontinuity |
# Trustworthy and untrustworthy models
In this post, I’ll talk about *trustworthiness*, a concept similar to scheming and deceptive alignment. I prefer this concept, as I find it A) is directly important in practice, B) more readily distinguishes between *capability for scheming* and *in fact scheming*, and C) is clea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ShgAxjgN55gmq47ou/trustworthy-and-untrustworthy-models-1 |
# A primer on why computational predictive toxicology is hard
Introduction
============
There are n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TsHPJ7fixmGdKZNZq/a-primer-on-why-computational-predictive-toxicology-is-hard |
# Defining alignment research
I think that the concept of "alignment research" (and the distinction between that and "capabilities research") is currently a fairly confused one. In this post I’ll describe some of the problems with how people typically think about these terms, and offer replacement definitions.
“Align... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67fNBeHrjdrZZNDDK/defining-alignment-research |
# LLM Applications I Want To See
[
](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Paxpr2EkNzBEJTDoF/llm-applications-i-want-to-see |
# Limitations on Formal Verification for AI Safety
In the past two years there has been increased interest in formal verification-based approaches to AI safety. Formal verification is a sub-field of computer science that studies how guarantees may be derived by deduction on fully-specified rule-sets and symbol systems... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B2bg677TaS4cmDPzL/limitations-on-formal-verification-for-ai-safety |
# Monthly Roundup #21: August 2024
Strictly speaking I do not have that much ‘good news’ to report, but it’s all mostly fun stuff one way or another. Let’s go.
#### Bad News
[Is this you?](https://x.com/patio11/status/1816583684268732594)
> Patrick McKenzie: This sounds like a trivial observation and it isn’t:
>
>... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ne9taAPiGqoTLXJJ/monthly-roundup-21-august-2024 |
# AI #77: A Few Upgrades
\[Apologies for forgetting to cross-post this and the Monthly Roundup earlier.\]
Let’s see. We’ve got a new version of GPT-4o, a vastly improved Grok 2 with a rather good and unrestricted deepfake and other image generator now baked into Twitter, the announcement of the AI powered Google Pixe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2tKbDKGLXtEHGtGLn/ai-77-a-few-upgrades |
# Thiel on AI & Racing with China
This post is a transcript of part of a [podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klRb0_BAX9g) with Peter Thiel, touching on topics of AI, China, extinction, Effective Altruists, and apocalyptic narratives, published on August 16th 2024.
If you're interested in reading the quotes, jus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xbpig7TcsEktyykNF/thiel-on-ai-and-racing-with-china |
# Finding Deception in Language Models
This June, Apart Research and Apollo Research joined forces to host the Deception Detection Hackathon. Bringing together students, researchers, and engineers from around the world to tackle a pressing challenge in AI safety; preventing AI from deceiving humans and overseers.
The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TSyCk3tyfewfox5nP/finding-deception-in-language-models-1 |
# Guide to SB 1047
We now likely know the final form of California’s SB 1047.
There have been many changes to the bill as it worked its way to this point.
Many changes, including some that were just announced, I see as strict improvements.
Anthropic was behind many of the last set of amendments at the Appropriation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z7pTfn4qqnKBoMi42/guide-to-sb-1047 |
# How great is the utility of "saving" endangered languages?
It happens regularly that a natural language goes extinct because the native speakers die off and their descendants no longer speak the language. Some people consider this a great tragedy and argue that we should preserve these endangered languages.
It seem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eXa34sb2TavMTYiQ9/how-great-is-the-utility-of-saving-endangered-languages |
# Trying to be rational for the wrong reasons
Rationalists are people who have an irrational preference for rationality.
This may sound silly, but when you think about it, it couldn't be any other way. I am *not* saying that *all* reasons in favor of rationality are irrational -- in fact, there are many rational reas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MEa2wtvt559kxGAB7/trying-to-be-rational-for-the-wrong-reasons |
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