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# Book review: Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security
Book review: Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security, by Roman V.
Yampolskiy.
This is a collection of papers, with highly varying topics, quality, and
importance.
Many of the papers focus on risks that are specific to
superintelligence, some assum... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hjf8MGLTegiAyHjWB/book-review-artificial-intelligence-safety-and-security |
# Prediction Markets Are About Being Right
Response To (Marginal Revolution): [If you love prediction markets you should love the art world.](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/12/love-prediction-markets-love-art-world.html)
Previously on prediction markets: [Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k286sEwyuY7SiQjcs/prediction-markets-are-about-being-right |
# What is "Social Reality?"
Eliezer's sequences [touch upon this concept](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CEGnJBHmkcwPTysb7/lonely-dissent) but I'm not sure they actually use the phrase. Much of my understanding of it came from in-person conversations. Various comments and posts have discussed it but to my knowledge t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j2mcSRxhjRyhyLJEs/what-is-social-reality |
# GraphQL tutorial for LessWrong and Effective Altruism Forum
This post is a tutorial on using GraphQL to query for information about
LessWrong and the Effective Altruism Forum. It's mostly intended for people who
have wanted to explore LW/EA Forum data but have found GraphQL intimidating
(this was the case for myself... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LJiGhpq8w4Badr5KJ/graphql-tutorial-for-lesswrong-and-effective-altruism-forum |
# LW Update 2018-12-06 – All Posts Page, Questions Page, Posts Item rework
First, an FYI – the LessWrong Team will be starting various holiday trips fairly soon. We'll probably still be doing some work and answering intercom, but may be more delayed than usual over the next few weeks.
But, we also have a few more upd... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WeyBovJq4qny6aM3o/lw-update-2018-12-06-all-posts-page-questions-page-posts |
# What precisely do we mean by AI alignment?
We sometimes phrase AI alignment as the problem of aligning the behavior or values of AI with what humanity wants or humanity's values or humanity's intent, but this leaves open the questions of just what precisely it means for an AI to be "aligned" with just what precisely... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L3Zvpad7mjHv4ydR2/what-precisely-do-we-mean-by-ai-alignment |
# Kindergarten in NYC: Much More than You Wanted to Know
**Kindergarten in NYC: Much More than You Wanted to Know**
My son is turning five next year, which means one of the most important transitions in his childhood and potentially his life: starting Kindergarten. I always thought New York City moms who obsessed o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ha7Mxxmbx9QXKrrvB/kindergarten-in-nyc-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Review: Slay the Spire
Epistemic Status: Many hours played
Spoiler-Free Bottom Line: Slay the Spire is an amazing single-player roguelike deckbuilding game. When I wrote that Artifact was the most fun I’ve had gaming in a long time, the only alternative to give me pause was Slay the Spire. Each game, you work your ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MEimkSwwuRgiPaZaY/review-slay-the-spire |
# Measly Meditation Measurements
\-\-\-\-\-\-
Go/NoGo
-------
texttt?
-------
Before Meditation:
367.733 ± 12.741
470.411 ± 18.322
507.999 ± 22.610
After Meditation:
533.515 ± 22.971
489.971 ± 28.985
454.545 ± 26.831
\## CuedAttention:
Before Meditation:
564.482 ± 19.791
605.75... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oMcQPMcMcmNgQ9jvp/measly-meditation-measurements |
# Why should EA care about rationality (and vice-versa)?
There's a lot of overlap between the effective altruism movement and the LessWrong rationality movement in terms of their membership, but each also has many people who are part of one group and not the other. For those in the overlap, why should EA care about ra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oMPv7cjp9FRkyKy/why-should-ea-care-about-rationality-and-vice-versa |
# Boston Secular Solstice
I previously made a [LessWrong Post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ERboWueanAyqwKbiQ/boston-solstice-2018) but since it wasn't an event I'm also making an event entry.
If you can [RSVP on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/events/177150809894419/) or email me (jeff@jefftk.com) if you're co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/me9Bc8JGkXTovWJCs/boston-secular-solstice |
# How Old is Smallpox?
The conventional view is that smallpox has been around since antiquity, but more recent evidence has suggested it's actually only around 500 years old.
So I have a research/rationality question: how conclusive is the "500 years old hypothesis"? I don't really have the expertise to evaluate it.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8EqTiMPbadFRqYHqp/how-old-is-smallpox |
# Who's welcome to our LessWrong meetups?
As part of announcing meetups publically, it's good to write in the meetup description about what kind of people would likely be a good match for the meetup. I still haven't gotten a good description myself.
How would you describe the kind of people we are in words that a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4aG7DjPQrzeA8K9hy/who-s-welcome-to-our-lesswrong-meetups |
# Assuming we've solved X, could we do Y...
The year is 1933. [Leó Szilárd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Szilard) has just hypothised the [nuclear chain reaction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction). Worried researchers from proto-MIRI or proto-FHI ask themselves "assuming we've solved the issue... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/95i5B78uhqyB3d6Xc/assuming-we-ve-solved-x-could-we-do-y |
# Figuring out what Alice wants: non-human Alice
I’ve shown that we [cannot deduce the preferences](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) of a potentially irrational agent. Even simplicity priors don’t help. We need to make extra [‘normative’ assumptions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fg83cD3M7dSpSaNFg/normative-assumpt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YfQGZderiaGv3kBJ8/figuring-out-what-alice-wants-non-human-alice |
# Bounded rationality abounds in models, not explicitly defined
Last night, I did not register a patent to cure all forms of cancer. Even though it’s probably possible to figure such a cure out, from basic physics and maybe a download of easily available biology research papers.
Can we then conclude that I don’t want... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DuPjCTeW9oRZzi27M/bounded-rationality-abounds-in-models-not-explicitly-defined |
# Norms of Membership for Voluntary Groups
_Epistemic Status: Idea Generation_
One feature of the internet that we haven’t fully adapted to yet is that it’s trivial to create voluntary groups for discussion. It’s as easy as making a mailing list, group chat, Facebook group, Discord server, Slack channel, etc.
What ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vHSrtmr3EBohcw6t8/norms-of-membership-for-voluntary-groups |
# A hundred Shakespeares
In his [post on science slowing down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7c47vjta3mavY3QC/is-science-slowing-down), Scott said:
* "Are there a hundred Shakespeare-equivalents around today? This is a harder problem than it seems – Shakespeare has become so venerable with historical hindsight tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mPy4pmFSuPScNqSop/a-hundred-shakespeares |
# Alignment Newsletter #36
_Developing a theory of values to solve extrapolation issues, and an approach to train AI systems to reason well_
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XFEJg9gxak5agyxJo/alignment-newsletter-36 |
# Should ethicists be inside or outside a profession?
_Originally written in 2007._
* * *
Marvin Minsky in an interview with Danielle Egan for _New Scientist:_
> **Minsky:** The reason we have politicians is to prevent bad things from happening. It doesn’t make sense to ask a scientist to worry about the bad effect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LRKXuxLrnxx3nSESv/should-ethicists-be-inside-or-outside-a-profession |
# Multi-agent predictive minds and AI alignment
_Abstract: An attempt to map a best-guess model of how human values and motivations work to several more technical research questions. The mind-model is inspired by predictive processing / active inference framework and multi-agent models of the mind._
The text has slig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3fkBWpE4f9nYbdf7E/multi-agent-predictive-minds-and-ai-alignment |
# The Bat and Ball Problem Revisited
*Cross posted from [my personal blog](https://drossbucket.wordpress.com/2018/12/12/the-bat-and-ball-problem-revisited/).*
*In this post, I'm going to assume you've come across the Cognitive Reflection Test before and know the answers. If you haven't, it's only three quick question... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vk2yS8osapSch9Cz2/the-bat-and-ball-problem-revisited |
# Three AI Safety Related Ideas
(I have a health problem that is acting up and making it hard to type for long periods of time, so I'm condensing three posts into one.)
**1. AI design as opportunity and obligation to address human safety problems**
Many AI safety problems are likely to have counterparts in humans. A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vbtvgNXkufFRSrx4j/three-ai-safety-related-ideas |
# Meditations on Momentum
Cross-posted and lightly-edited from [The Deep Dish](https://thedeepdish.org/meditations-on-momentum/).
**Epistemic status:** describing a general phenomenon; may not be correct on every specific point. may have used scientific terms in an annoying metaphorical fashion. elements of pointing ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iPGpENE4ARKbzzQmt/meditations-on-momentum |
# Player vs. Character: A Two-Level Model of Ethics
_Epistemic Status: Confident_
This idea is actually due to my husband, Andrew Rettek, but since he doesn’t blog, and I want to be able to refer to it later, I thought I’d write it up here.
In many games, such as Magic: The Gathering, Hearthstone, or Dungeons and Dr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fyGEP4mrpyWEAfyqj/player-vs-character-a-two-level-model-of-ethics |
# Introducing the Longevity Research Institute
I’ve just founded a nonprofit, the Longevity Research Institute — you can check it out [here.](https://thelri.org/)
The basic premise is: we know there are more than 50 compounds that have been reported to extend healthy lifespan in mammals, but most of these have never ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cGQtDf9arnvRuecW5/introducing-the-longevity-research-institute |
# What is abstraction?
I'm not clear on what the term abstraction really means. It seems to mean different things in different contexts.
I'm a programmer, and when I think of abstraction, the first thing I think of is something that feels like _composition_. Suppose you are a parent and want to teach your child how t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bYScAyTebG452Ds8A/what-is-abstraction |
# Interpreting genetic testing
Several years ago I [participated in a study](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DyZuewJMopqfEnQmo/) where my DNA was sequenced, and while I ended up not getting the sequence data \[1\] I did get a file of 23andme-style SNP variant calls. I loaded it into Promethease, and excluded mutations... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAwY5czzfkNNQohDJ/interpreting-genetic-testing |
# Argue Politics* With Your Best Friends
_Epistemic Status: I endorse this strongly but don’t think I’m being original or clever at all._
Until recently — yesterday, in fact — I was seriously wrong about something.
I thought that it was silly when I saw people spending lots of energy arguing with their _closest _fri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n4ukoQzkgbAqpzqb5/argue-politics-with-your-best-friends |
# Gwern about centaurs: there is no chance that any useful man+machine combination will work together for more than 10 years, as humans soon will be only a liability
This is a quote from the discussion in Reddit (responding to another commenter):
> "I remember and I kind of subscribe to this idea of "man+machines as ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTboWTyf9MfERnsKp/gwern-about-centaurs-there-is-no-chance-that-any-useful-man |
# New edition of "Rationality: From AI to Zombies"
MIRI is releasing a new edition of _**Rationality: From AI to Zombies**,_ including the first set of _R:AZ_ print books. As of this morning, print versions of _Map and Territory_ (volume 1) and _How to Actually Change Your Mind_ (volume 2) are now available **on Amazo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NjFgqv8bzjhXFaELP/new-edition-of-rationality-from-ai-to-zombies |
# Sabine "Bee" Hossenfelder (and Robin Hanson) on How to fix Academia with Prediction Markets
"Don’t ask what science can do for you." is the clever title.
As I understand it, the prediction markets in science would not be easily influenced by the scientists and they would take into account a group of people currentl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T6w7DnmBqhR32nvEW/sabine-bee-hossenfelder-and-robin-hanson-on-how-to-fix |
# The E-Coli Test for AI Alignment
Let’s say you have an idea in mind for how to align an AI with human values.
Go prep a slide with some e-coli, put it under a microscope, and zoom in until you can see four or five cells. Your mission: satisfy the values of those particular e-coli. In particular, walk through whatev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZdCztwnxXu3aC4kxZ/the-e-coli-test-for-ai-alignment |
# What are some concrete problems about logical counterfactuals?
Logical counterfactuals are key to [Functional Decision Theory](https://intelligence.org/2017/10/22/fdt/) and last I heard still an unsolved problem. Unfortunately, I am still rather confused about what exactly we are trying to solve. The only concrete p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6N3SzS4xsruvfxyTG/what-are-some-concrete-problems-about-logical |
# Two Neglected Problems in Human-AI Safety
In this post I describe a couple of [human-AI safety problems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vbtvgNXkufFRSrx4j/three-ai-safety-related-ideas) in more detail. These helped motivate my proposed [hybrid approach](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vbtvgNXkufFRSrx4j/three-ai-safe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HTgakSs6JpnogD6c2/two-neglected-problems-in-human-ai-safety |
# Fifteen Things I Learned From Watching a Game of Secret Hitler
Epistemic Status: Not likely to be _true _things. Right?
1. Liberals know nothing, fascists know everything.
2. Most of the policies democratic governments could pass are fascist policies that expand government power.
3. The remaining policies are li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qAnHyJJEW4L9mDjw7/fifteen-things-i-learned-from-watching-a-game-of-secret |
# In Defense of Finance
[I'm sharing the link](https://putanumonit.com/2018/12/14/defense-of-finance/) instead of a full cross-post because this essay has:
* 5,300 words
* 2 footnotes, with links that actually work
* 1 GIF, 2 chart... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kPi7MNgPrR3P3Lzav/in-defense-of-finance |
# Alignment Newsletter #37
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wrMqGrGWaFfcAyvBW/alignment-newsletter-37 |
# You can be wrong about what you like, and you often are
_Meta: I'm not saying anything new here. There has been a lot of research on the topic, and popular books like_ [Stumbling on Happiness](https://www.amazon.com/Stumbling-Happiness-Daniel-Gilbert/dp/1400077427) _have been written. Furthermore, I don't think I ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b2rGxCsDPzqZjy3JF/you-can-be-wrong-about-what-you-like-and-you-often-are |
# Equivalence of State Machines and Coroutines
In the past I often referred to the equivalence between state machines and coroutines as a kind of obvious fact that doesn't need any additional explanation. It was brought to my attention, however, that that may not always be the case.
This article therefore doesn't att... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NmL2NdrrDosX7nEyz/equivalence-of-state-machines-and-coroutines |
# 2018 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison
_[Cross-posted](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BznrRBgiDdcTwWWsB/2018-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison) to the EA forum._
**Introduction**
================
[Like last year](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XKwiEpWRd... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a72owS5hz3acBK5xc/2018-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison |
# Experiences of Self-deception
It seems to me that self-deception can describe two different things - conscious and unconscious self-deception.
Sometimes the elephant believes something untrue all by itself without the rider ever getting a look in. The claims of [elephant in the brain](http://elephantinthebrain.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oDADigGrmZuXMHHmX/experiences-of-self-deception |
# Good arguments against "cultural appropriation"
\[Originally [posted to Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/tyrrell.mcallister/posts/10106390274370763).\]
I'm collecting steel-man arguments that the concept of "cultural appropriation" describes a real problem. Below are three arguments that seem somewhat reasonable ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZPvCWXasmf23sudDb/good-arguments-against-cultural-appropriation |
# 18-month follow-up on my self-concept work
About eighteen months ago, I found Steve Andreas’s book [Transforming Your Self](https://www.amazon.com/Transforming-Your-Self-Becoming-Want/dp/0911226435), and applied its techniques to fixing a number of issues in my self-concepts which had contributed to my depression an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lr2MAFLsfmayBhJnC/18-month-follow-up-on-my-self-concept-work |
# Solstice Album Crowdfunding
For several years, people have been singing songs at [Solstice](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CGkZEQdeBZZXbBT7o/on-rationalist-solstice-and-epistemic-caution), and some of those songs have been recorded, but always as a live performance which means the quality isn't as good and the musi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ngii4TX6F9wtzXS8C/solstice-album-crowdfunding |
# Anthropic paradoxes transposed into Anthropic Decision Theory
[Anthropic Decision Theory](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Anthropic_Decision_Theory_Tech_Report.pdf) (ADT) replaces anthropic probabilities ([SIA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-indication_assumption) and [SSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PgsxXNSDsyz4DFEuw/anthropic-paradoxes-transposed-into-anthropic-decision |
# Reasons compute may not drive AI capabilities growth
How long it will be before humanity is capable of creating general AI is an important factor in discussions of the importance of doing AI alignment research as well as discussions of which research avenues have the best chance of success. One frequently discussed ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hSw4MNTc3gAwZWdx9/reasons-compute-may-not-drive-ai-capabilities-growth |
# What self-help has helped you?
Simply, what self-help techniques have you tried and found to help you? Bonus points if you can say something about the context in which you did the self-help and any speculations you have about mechanism of action.
Please give one technique per answer, multiple answers accepted per p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xt22Pqut4c6SAdWo2/what-self-help-has-helped-you |
# The Pavlov Strategy
_Epistemic Status: Common knowledge, just not to me_
[The Evolution of Trust](https://ncase.me/trust/) is a deceptively friendly little interactive game. Near the end, there’s a “sandbox” evolutionary game theory simulator. It’s pretty flexible. You can do quick experiments in it without writin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3rxMBRCYEmHCNDLhu/the-pavlov-strategy |
# Systems Engineering and the META Program
I periodically look for information on [systems engineering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_engineering). This time I came across a powerpoint presentation from the MIT Open Courseware course [Fundamentals of Systems Engineering](https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/aeronautics... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q25bajee6DeL9wFqm/systems-engineering-and-the-meta-program |
# Standing on a pile of corpses
\[In the darkest day of 2018, it is proper to think about the darkness that surrounds us\]
When we think about the history of humanity, we focus on its highlights.
Galileo discovering the moons of Jupiter. Edward Jenner developing the first pox vaccine. Emmy Noether setting the mathem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7LR5F4RhbbaLsra5y/standing-on-a-pile-of-corpses |
# Anthropic probabilities and cost functions
I've claimed that anthropic probabilities like [SIA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-indication_assumption) and [SSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sampling_assumption) don't actually exist - or, more properly, that you need to include some details of preferences in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uzb3u3zMTkrSEhCaf/anthropic-probabilities-and-cost-functions |
# Boundaries enable positive material-informational feedback loops
_(Cross-posted from [my blog](https://unstableontology.com/2018/12/22/boundaries-enable-positive-material-informational-feedback-loops/))_
[epistemic status: obvious once considered, I think]
If you want to get big things done, you almost certainly n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6J4GwrRCFxCgTdWqR/boundaries-enable-positive-material-informational-feedback |
# Spaghetti Towers
Here’s a pattern I’d like to be able to talk about. It might be known under a certain name somewhere, but if it is, I don’t know it. I call it a Spaghetti Tower. It shows up in large complex systems that are built haphazardly.
Someone or something builds the first Part A.
), all the nerdy webcomics. And yet, outside the rationalsphere every creator seems engage... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WdMHxAxEjmiihJbf9/why-don-t-creators-switch-to-their-own-platforms |
# Best arguments against worrying about AI risk?
Since so many people here (myself included) are either working to reduce AI risk or would love to enter the field, it seems worthwhile to ask what are the best arguments against doing so. This question is intended to focus on existential/catastrophic risks and not thing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jGmSMHmELjZaHm44k/best-arguments-against-worrying-about-ai-risk |
# Boston Solstice 2018 Retrospective
Last night we hosted the Boston Secular Solstice, which I wrote about planning [a couple months ago](https://www.jefftk.com/p/boston-solstice-2018). It felt like it went really well! Several people told me it was their favorite one we've had in Boston.
The past few years we've bee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X9RTd4pGoCXwQ2gdC/boston-solstice-2018-retrospective |
# [Video] Why Not Just: Think of AGI Like a Corporation? (Robert Miles)
Robert Miles has been creating AI-Alignment related videos for a while now, but I found this one particularly good.
Here is the automatically generated Youtube transcript. Obviously it's not very good, but at least it makes the post searchable (I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LafvFDyzHgsbbPxM9/video-why-not-just-think-of-agi-like-a-corporation-robert |
# Testing Rationality Apps for Science
**TLDR**: Do you want to contribute to science by trying out new productivity apps? Then send a mail to re-experiments-on@tuebingen.mpg.de.
**Longer version**: Do you want to achieve your personal goals more effectively, become more focused and productive at work, improve your p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ozFisYqNcErR8ooGW/testing-rationality-apps-for-science |
# Contrite Strategies and The Need For Standards
_Epistemic Status: Confident_
There’s a really interesting paper from 1996 called [The Logic of Contrition](https://homepage.univie.ac.at/Karl.Sigmund/JTB97a.pdf), which I’ll summarize here. In it, the authors identify a strategy called “Contrite Tit For Tat”, which d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2meuc3kPRkBcRpj3R/contrite-strategies-and-the-need-for-standards |
# Reinterpreting "AI and Compute"
Some arguments saying that the recent evidence about the speed at which compute has been increasing and has been responsible for rapid progress in machine learning, might mean that we should be less worried about short timelines, not more.
> \[...\] Overall, it seems pretty common to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EjssJnp9fNhvdDEdK/reinterpreting-ai-and-compute |
# Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes
Previously: [Review: Artifact](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/11/22/review-artifact/)
Epistemic Status: [I’m making a note here. HUGE SUCCESS!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6ljFaKRTrI)
Only a few weeks after the release of Artifact, [a patch was released](https://steam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vHLaESwKCSmtttx7k/artifact-embraces-card-balance-changes |
# On Disingenuity
Suppose someone claims that all morality is relative, but when pressed on whether this would apply even to murder, they act evasive and refuse to give a clear answer. A critic might conclude that this person is disingenuous in refusing to accept the clear logical consequences of their belief.
Howeve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PHy6K7DwM9uWdYM8Y/on-disingenuity |
# Card Collection and Ownership
Considers issues raised by: [Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/12/26/artifact-embraces-card-balance-changes/).
### III. Card Collection and Ownership
What does it mean to own a card?
Good question.
In different games, with different principles... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RpXZm99FCgn9QovsT/card-collection-and-ownership |
# Can dying people "hold on" for something they are waiting for?
_content note: death, old age, sickness_
I've heard numerous anecdotal accounts of sick or old people who are on death's door "holding on" in a way suggestive that they were exerting some effort to do, until they had reached closure on some thing (a rel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/85NB33EcRTZ9Tv8i8/can-dying-people-hold-on-for-something-they-are-waiting-for |
# In what ways are holidays good?
I'd like a model of the benefits that holidays (vacations) can have, so that I can plan accordingly. Relevant questions that I have, although feel free to answer ones not listed here:
* Do holidays teach you things about other places that you couldn't learn from Wikipedia?
* Why ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TKHvBXHpMakRDqqvT/in-what-ways-are-holidays-good |
# 1987 Sci-Fi Authors Timecapsule Predictions For 2012
I find it interesting how focused people were on certain trends such as venereal disease, which turned out almost irrelevant just 25 years later as drivers of global norms. Of the set I think Algis Budrys wins Most Accurate:
>Because we will be in a trough betw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mwd98HCYwqeFyyrg5/1987-sci-fi-authors-timecapsule-predictions-for-2012 |
# Isaac Asimov's predictions for 2019 from 1984
_My vague impressions_
The whole essay is conditional on no nuclear war. Than, he explored two main big trends - computerization and space utilization. If something like a general model how Asimov did futurology can be extracted from the text, it is extending the large ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rb5H2mtL7ozEmLEib/isaac-asimov-s-predictions-for-2019-from-1984 |
# Akrasia is confusion about what you want
> _It’s 2 pm. You’ve had a report to write since yesterday morning but you just don’t feel like doing it. You’ve tried to start on it several times, but each time your mind simply refuses to engage with the task. You stare at the screen for a while, hands perched over keys, b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XmqqkfY8XAJ6LkwdP/akrasia-is-confusion-about-what-you-want |
# Penalizing Impact via Attainable Utility Preservation
Previously: _[Towards a New Impact Measure](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yEa7kwoMpsBgaBCgb/towards-a-new-impact-measure)_
The linked paper offers fresh motivation and simplified formalization of attainable utility preservation (AUP), with brand-new results an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mDTded2Dn7BKRBEPX/penalizing-impact-via-attainable-utility-preservation |
# What makes people intellectually active?
What is the difference between a smart person who has read the sequences and considers AI x-risk important and interesting, but continues to be primarily a consumer of ideas, and someone who starts having ideas? I am not trying to set a really high bar here -- they don't have... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XYYyzgyuRH5rFN64K/what-makes-people-intellectually-active |
# How did academia ensure papers were correct in the early 20th Century?
In the post '[Four layers of Intellectual Conversation](https://rationalconspiracy.com/2017/01/03/four-layers-of-intellectual-conversation/)', Eliezer says that both the writer of an idea, and the person writing a critique of that idea, need to e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LYQW9B2YgvegWqjXB/how-did-academia-ensure-papers-were-correct-in-the-early |
# Conceptual Analysis for AI Alignment
TL; DR - [Conceptual Analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_analysis) is highly relevant for AI alignment, and is also a way in which someone with less technical skills can contribute to alignment research. This suggests there should be at least one person working... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j79pzvuYM8hC9Tfzc/conceptual-analysis-for-ai-alignment |
# Thoughts on Q&A so far?
It's been a few weeks since introducing the Open Questions / Q&A features on LessWrong.
As the team returns from the holidays, we'll likely put some time into fine tuning the features and introducing supporting elements to make them work a bit better. I thought it'd be good to check in with ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XyraAFB5jjFp4vHau/thoughts-on-q-and-a-so-far |
# Card Rebalancing and Economic Considerations in Digital Card Games
Previously: [Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/12/26/artifact-embraces-card-balance-changes/), [Card Collection and Ownership](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/12/27/card-collection-and-ownership/), [Card Bala... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/inpvQ92LRXeJwXRQP/card-rebalancing-and-economic-considerations-in-digital-card |
# What do you do when you find out you have inconsistent probabilities?
I've recently been reading about a rationalist blogger who converted to Catholicism. She may have assigned subjective probabilities like:
P(Objective Morality)=0.9P(God)=0.05
Then she may have introspected and come up with:
P(Objective Morality... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AwkztkhRby28PA7db/what-do-you-do-when-you-find-out-you-have-inconsistent |
# Why do Contemplative Practitioners Make so Many Metaphysical Claims?
To paraphrase Culadasa: awakening is a set of special insights that lead to drastically reduced suffering. This seems straightforward enough, and might lead one to question, if this is the case, why the vast landscape of teachers and practitioners ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FP2i7ynAQ7xWySCZJ/why-do-contemplative-practitioners-make-so-many-metaphysical |
# Alignment Newsletter #39
Happy New Year!
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/waAfXvcmbqaPHRA7B/alignment-newsletter-39 |
# Optimization Regularization through Time Penalty
For an overview of the problem of Optimization Regularization, or Mild Optimization, I refer to MIRI's paper [Alignment for Advanced Machine Learning Systems](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7ac7/b6dbcf5107c7ad0ce29161f60c2834a06795.pdf), section 2.7
My solution
===... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ehLX2RdbD5ZkeJyuJ/optimization-regularization-through-time-penalty |
# What exercises go best with 3 blue 1 brown's Linear Algebra videos?
3 blue 1 brown is a youtube channel that teaches math concepts. I've found it a much better introduction than other resources I've looked at. The _[Essence of Calculus](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUvTyaaNkzM&list=PLZHQObOWTQDMsr9K-rj53DwVRMYO3t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9MCm4GJNRN886SBTK/what-exercises-go-best-with-3-blue-1-brown-s-linear-algebra |
# Learning-Intentions vs Doing-Intentions
_Epistemic Status: In truth, only a slight repackaging of familiar ideas with a new handle I’ve found myself wanting. See [The Lean Startup](https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous-Innovation/dp/0307887898) and [Riskiest Assumption Testing](https://hacker... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LMsq5qoR56rgYRyF9/learning-intentions-vs-doing-intentions |
# Events in Daily?
I'm in the process of refactoring how we handle the default posts view. The core goal was to implement some anti-spam features into it. But it highlighted some oddness in how we're currently filtering things.
I wanted to check how this might effect people on GreaterWrong, and people who use the Dai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GpJiCGRkr7Rni8we8/events-in-daily |
# Electrons don’t think (or suffer)
There is an EA fringe that talks about suffering in elementary particles. Physicist Sabine Hossenfelder reminds her readers why this panpsychist idea is nonsense.
TL;DR: "if you want a particle to be conscious, your minimum expectation should be that the particle can change. It’s h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uuiE5NihbbjMK8gmR/electrons-don-t-think-or-suffer |
# Strategy is the Deconfusion of Action
Reading the [New Research Directions](https://intelligence.org/2018/11/22/2018-update-our-new-research-directions/#identifier_5_18363) update from MIRI, I was struck by the description of deconfusion:
> By deconfusion, I mean something like “making it so that you can think abou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TM5abitFvrzb8DP3e/strategy-is-the-deconfusion-of-action |
# Generalising CNNs
TL/DR; The invention of [Convolution Neural Networks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convolutional_neural_network) for image and audio processing was a key landmark in machine learning.
This topic is for people who already know what CNNs are, and are interested in how to innovate to riff on and ext... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rWXXhqGigewYTSdWi/generalising-cnns |
# What's the best way for me to improve my English pronounciation?
I'm a native German speaker and learned a good portion of my English not in school but by reading English content.
As part of a New Years event we did a Doom Circle and one essential feedback I got was that I have to improve my English accent.
When i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yLdX4bKvCKb8oFsfz/what-s-the-best-way-for-me-to-improve-my-english |
# Applied Rationality Workshop Cologne, Germany
Together with [Anne Wissemann](http://annewissemann.com/) we are going to do a 2-day weekend workshop on applied rationality in Cologne, Germany. If you cannot apply since you have already scheduled something important, feel free to [leave your email](https://goo.gl/form... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wshfC85WHzPtQCbeg/applied-rationality-workshop-cologne-germany |
# What is a reasonable outside view for the fate of social movements?
_Epistemic status: very hand-wavy and vague, but confident there is a substantial and well-understood core. Hoping for an answer that elucidates that core more clearly._
It is something of a rationalist folk theorem that social movements face the r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RCQ3vintjuGWiMbsa/what-is-a-reasonable-outside-view-for-the-fate-of-social |
# What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
I'm trying to come up with a set of questions for self-calibration, related to AI and ML.
I've written down what I've come up with so far below. But I am principally interested in what other people come up with -- thus the question metatype --... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pQfL25ZHE2HvQrWhi/what-are-good-ml-ai-related-prediction-calibration-questions |
# Two More Decision Theory Problems for Humans
(This post has been sitting in my drafts folder for 6 years. Not sure why I didn't make it public, but here it is now after some editing.)
There are two problems closely related to the [Ontological Crisis in Humans](/posts/KLaJjNdENsHhKhG5m/ontological-crisis-in-humans).... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6RjL996E8Dsz3vHPk/two-more-decision-theory-problems-for-humans |
# Towards no-math, graphical instructions for prediction markets
You are probably familiar with prediction markets. As of the last [general update](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/09/prediction-markets-update.html), Robin Hanson notes that while there is increasing research interest and a few general platforms are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7C2Dhs4zSwmF3MkYS/towards-no-math-graphical-instructions-for-prediction |
# I want it my way!
_First posted to [notthinkable.com](http://notthinkable.com/blog)_
I've been meaning to write a blog post for awhile (years), because more and more I'm finding that contributing to others, in whatever form that takes, is a really rewarding thing to do, and makes me feel connected.
But I've be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WiDh3ca3C7GgrNXAn/i-want-it-my-way |
# Will humans build goal-directed agents?
In the [previous post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/NxF5G6CJiof6cemTw/coherence-arguments-do-not-imply-goal-directed-behavior), I argued that simply knowing that an AI system is superintelligent does not imply that it must be goal-directed. However, there are many othe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9zpT9dikrrebdq3Jf/will-humans-build-goal-directed-agents |
# Does anti-malaria charity destroy the local anti-malaria industry?
The usual argument against foreign aid to Africa is that randomly giving tons of free goods (such as food) _ruins local producers_; and when at some later moment the charity goes out of fashion (or decides to target a different part of Africa), the l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HkpYyr93P2j5R5Go7/does-anti-malaria-charity-destroy-the-local-anti-malaria |
# Failures of UDT-AIXI, Part 1: Improper Randomizing
While attempting to construct a UDT-like variant of AIXI, the algorithm I wrote down turned out to have a bunch of problems with it that were blocking attempts to prove that it had various nice properties. This will be the first post in a sequence about the various ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mrZp6qC7DDXKQZeeC/failures-of-udt-aixi-part-1-improper-randomizing |
# Supervising strong learners
by amplifying weak experts
Abstract
--------
> Many real world learning tasks involve complex or hard-to-specify objectives, and using an easier-to-specify proxy can lead to poor performance or misaligned behavior. One solution is to have humans provide a training signal by demonstrating... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xKvzpodBGcPMq7TqE/supervising-strong-learners-by-amplifying-weak-experts |
# Imitation learning considered unsafe?
ETA: This post can basically be read as arguing that imitating human decisions, or any other outputs from an (approximate) planning process, seems especially likely to produce mesa-optimization, since a competent imitator should recover an (approximate) planning (i.e. optimizati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/whRPLBZNQm3JD5Zv8/imitation-learning-considered-unsafe |
# Disadvantages of Card Rebalancing
Previously: [Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/12/26/artifact-embraces-card-balance-changes/), [Card Collection and Ownership](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/12/27/card-collection-and-ownership/), [Card Balance and Artifact](https://thezvi.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6fi7RvPmwoDNycke/disadvantages-of-card-rebalancing |
# On Abstract Systems
We've all seen those abstract systems that are used for analysis like: [Strategy = Ends + Ways + Means](https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/parameters/issues/Winter_2016-17/10_Meiser.pdf), [Waterfall Model](https://www.toolsqa.com/software-testing/waterfall-model/): Requirements, System Design, I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kCiifW7kNxoGTwHfW/on-abstract-systems |
# AI safety without goal-directed behavior
When I first entered the field of AI safety, I thought of the problem as figuring out how to get the AI to have the “right” utility function. This led me to work on the problem of inferring values from demonstrators with unknown biases, despite the impossibility results in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tHxXdAn8Yuiy9y2pZ/ai-safety-without-goal-directed-behavior |
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