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9cd90559-7b32-4925-ad11-58fa70661718 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A first look at the hard problem of corrigibility
Summary: We would like to build corrigible AIs, which do not prevent us from shutting them down or changing their utility function. While there are some corrigibility solutions (such as utility indifference) that appear to partially work, they do not capture the philos... |
14571e5e-2835-4edd-99c9-51c34ccaec2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Test Cases for Impact Regularisation Methods
Epistemic status: I’ve spent a while thinking about and collecting these test cases, and talked about them with other researchers, but couldn’t bear to revise or ask for feedback after writing the first draft for this post, so here you are.
A motivating concern in AI align... |
7afd67d2-c8dc-4b1e-b92c-6135c1ae4ad6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Newcomb's problem happened to me
Okay, maybe not me, but someone I know, and that's what the title would be if he wrote it. Newcomb's problem and Kavka's toxin puzzle are more than just curiosities relevant to artificial intelligence theory. Like a lot of thought experiments, they approximately happen. They illustr... |
db6cfa81-11ab-4658-b575-73f8608ec46e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My career exploration: Tools for building confidence
Crossposting from my blog
I did a major career review during 2023. I’m sharing it now because:
1. I think it’s a good case study for iterated depth decision-making in general and reevaluating your career in particular, and
2. I want to let you know about my exc... |
6cc6908c-aa3b-4be5-b9d0-51cce03bae0c | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3850
Note: This describes an idea of Jessica Taylor's . The usual training procedures for machine learning models are not always well-equipped to avoid rare catastrophes. In order to maintain the safety of powerful AI systems, it will be important to have training procedures that can efficiently learn from suc... |
a2fb2ecb-cba3-4355-b8e0-3e2fba1f93e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against responsibility
I am surrounded by well-meaning people trying to take responsibility for the future of the universe. I think that this attitude – prominent among Effective Altruists – is causing great harm. I noticed this as part of a broader change in outlook, which I've been trying to describe on this blog in... |
ac685b21-e5f1-471c-b558-1533e8e2f158 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I (with the help of a few more people) am planning to create an introduction to AI Safety that a smart teenager can understand. What am I missing?
Disclaimer: My English isn't very good, but do not dissuade me on this basis - the sequence itself will be translated by a professional translator.
I want to create a sequ... |
2a534aac-030a-40e5-b2e0-06a6534b9efa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A puzzle on the ASVAB
I was linked to this on another forum. No instructions were given, apparently - just this picture. What's the deal?
It seems to me the answer is clearly C, not A as the test indicates; and the members in the original thread appear to agree. However, attempted justifications of A have been made,... |
7563d9ce-7660-44f9-9710-e5c4b8179dd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Guarding Against the Postmodernist Failure Mode
The following two paragraphs got me thinking some rather uncomfortable thoughts about our community's insularity:
> We engineers are frequently accused of speaking an alien language, of wrapping what we do in jargon and obscurity in order to preserve the technological p... |
3063bef2-482e-4a96-beaf-b04d4b71df55 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Third-person counterfactuals
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; di... |
4a67c93f-e690-45d4-933e-fbb886644671 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 34-38
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 34-38
WHEN: 09 February 2013 11:00:00AM (-0500)
WHERE: Parker and Otis, 112 S Duke St, Durham NC
The next in our regularly scheduled HPMoR discussions.
Please feel free to join in, even if you hav... |
c89027a2-5128-49f2-b13c-e2587788e07e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Penalizing Impact via Attainable Utility Preservation
,,
Previously: Towards a New Impact Measure
The linked paper offers fresh motivation and simplified formalization of attainable utility preservation (AUP), with brand-new results and minimal notation. Whether or not you're a hardened veteran of the last odyssey of... |
f0091d15-741f-47fc-8823-04b2624cbdd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Industrial Explosion
Summary
To quickly transform the world, it's not enough for AI to become super smart (the "intelligence explosion").
AI will also have to turbocharge the physical world (the "industrial explosion"). Think robot factories building more and better robot factories, which build more and better r... |
226ab98f-a508-4603-b477-abd7a0e8232c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI-created pseudo-deontology
I'm soon going to go on a two day "AI control retreat", when I'll be without internet or family or any contact, just a few books and thinking about AI control. In the meantime, here is one idea I found along the way.
We often prefer leaders to follow deontological rules, because these are... |
f5cd094f-d9fd-441e-bd8c-4e25fd5c1b93 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Potential gears level explanations of smooth progress
*(Epistemic status: exploratory. Also, this post isn't thorough; I wanted to write quickly.)*
*(Thanks to Mary Phuong, Pedro Freire, Tao Lin, Rohin Shah, and probably a few
other people I'm forgetting for discussing this topic with me.)*
My perception is that i... |
68ed165b-66bf-4da3-b338-807b4cef102c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | EA’s brain-over-body bias, and the embodied value problem in AI alignment
**Overview**
Most AI alignment research focuses on aligning AI systems with the human brain’s stated or revealed preferences. However, human bodies include dozens of organs, hundreds of cell types, and thousands of adaptations that can be view... |
004d5d77-5865-4536-b4de-dfc6dbc21a67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | “Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated review
Summary and Table of Contents
The goal of this post is to discuss the so-called “sharp left turn”, the lessons that we learn from analogizing evolution to AGI development, and the claim that “capabilities generalize farther than alignment” … and the competing claims t... |
3f4f1bbd-5f5c-493c-bbe0-c089134dbcc9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Less Realistic Tales of Doom
Realistic tales of doom must weave together many political, technical, and economic considerations into a single story. Such tales provide concrete projections but omit discussion of less probable paths to doom. To rectify this, here are some concrete, less realistic tales of doom; conside... |
bfb5ee7b-0443-4db1-83bf-2b1c17f1d214 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for a Team to Participate on a Competition
I'm looking to build a product and I hope to find partners with this post.
On April 6th it was announced the Nano Build-off: Compete in a $75,000 competition to award and empower developers building new products/services utilising Nano.
Nano is a cyptocurrency proto... |
5615d3df-1937-4c60-b834-5106d0036d73 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Where do we go now?
okay so let's get right to it most of
you are probably here because you've
seen my videos on the computer file
channel but on the off chance that you
haven't or you haven't seen them all or
you don't remember them all I mean the
first one was like four years ago I
thought the first video should go
... |
a07cb452-9fc6-44a0-a906-3272875c5e43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training Regime Day 16: Hamming Questions
Note: I have acquired enough slack to resume writing, but cannot guarantee that it will be consistent.
Introduction
Sometimes, it makes sense to view your life from a narrative lens - to pretend that you're the main character in a book of your favorite genre. From there, you... |
a28f4b14-3e71-4663-9dd9-67219dbde932 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post253
YouTube link Lots of people in the AI safety space worry about models being able to make deliberate, multi-step plans. But can we already see this in existing neural nets? In this episode, I talk with Erik Jenner about his work looking at internal look-ahead within chess-playing neural networks. Topics we ... |
7160582d-62dd-45ff-bb0f-2b0f5af5413f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transcripts of interviews with AI researchers
tldr: I conducted a series of interviews with 11 AI reseachers to discuss AI safety, which are located here: TRANSCRIPTION LINK. If you are interested in doing outreach with AI researchers, I highly recommend taking a look!
[Cross-posted to the EA Forum.]
--------------... |
872c93ea-b7f2-47f2-9ac0-f259834ba155 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lessons learned from offering in-office nutritional testing
Introduction
I’ve talked previously about my concerns with nutritional deficiencies in effective altruists who go vegan for ethical reasons, especially those who don’t have a lot of contact with the broader vegan culture. No one else seemed very concerned, so... |
a3b30c41-3756-422b-9fe0-3373e90d0691 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Alignment "Scaffolding" Project Ideas (Request for Advice)
I believe that AI Alignment is almost certainly the most pressing issue for the future of humanity. It seems to me that the greatest thing that could happen for AI alignment research is probably receiving a whole lot more brains and money and political spon... |
a3e0c39c-6317-42b7-a0c3-8cf4ca391a5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are good safety standards for open source AIs from China?
It looks like the compromising between those who want to ban Chinese AI models in the United States in the c rrent administration will be to allow the models but require some safety standards to prevent China from harming the United States.
While we gener... |
e152cbf0-c443-44ae-a94b-c50613308d41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW is probably not the place for "I asked this LLM (x) and here's what it said!", but where is?
I notice a nonzero amount of posts on LW, admittedly typically not overly high karma, that go something like, "I asked Bing to do x and its' answer freaked me out!", or "I talked to ChatGPT4 about itself and it told me weir... |
08af7540-bcab-4700-a6a8-9e69e168a942 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Charity when time isn't convertible to money?
Having just re-read "Money: The Unit of Caring", I noticed that the general methods proposed therein make some assumptions which don't seem to apply to me, and I'm trying to figure out how the conclusions therein change therefrom.
Avoiding certain personal details, I'm on... |
e0107758-f73d-4d29-8022-37d04e375bca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Podcast: Tamera Lanham on AI risk, threat models, alignment proposals, externalized reasoning oversight, and working at Anthropic
***TLDR:** I interviewed Tamera Lanham. You can listen to our conversation* [*here*](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4Twhw4Dw9hwYB6T27fDFwI?si=ZGpqtDWDR9-NHHtE7nkDCQ&nd=1) *or read some hi... |
069afd18-7291-46ba-b399-0d973775bd89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain?
Joe Carlsmith with a really detailed report on computational upper bounds and lower bounds on simulating a human brain:
> Open Philanthropy is interested in when AI systems will be able to perform various tasks that humans can perform (“AI timelines... |
6794a12b-8d96-43ef-aae8-e24dba7b3535 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spring 2010 Meta Thread
This post is a place to discuss meta-level issues regarding Less Wrong. Previous thread. |
5d178d0e-d967-4f4c-81ba-fce07710345f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Meetup] Reminder: Reason Rally Meetup in DC, this Saturday
This Saturday is the Reason Rally in Washington DC, a gathering of people promoting secularism, skepticism, rationality, atheism and other related topics. It's a good opportunity to meet people who are close to but not familiar with the Less Wrong memeplex. T... |
1843351f-43cf-4508-8bbe-0742601a149b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Expected utility and utility after time
So I have a conundrum. Imagine that Omega comes to you and offers you two choices:
First choice: You get a moment of moderate pain, let's say a slap and then another slap, so that your face hurts for a couple of minutes with some anguish. Now after that pain has faded and you s... |
c6c0a74b-6972-412a-885a-b014560c02e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I'd like to talk to some LGBT LWers.
When _ozymandias posted zir introduction post a few days ago, I went off and binged on blogs from the trans/men's rights/feminist spectrum. I found them absolutely fascinating. I've always had lots of sympathy for transgendered people in particular, and care a lot about all those i... |
970ca1b7-ccff-456e-ba73-70ab7d61713d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gathering Information you won't use directly is often useful
The Story
Today I moved. I asked one of my housemates about good shopping opportunities for buying groceries. I already scouted two shops. They were not very good. My housemate told me that the store that they found was also not very good. I decided to go an... |
c4671bed-c5df-4443-ba91-f846e74e1818 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I'm going to help you quit Facebook with some science
Cross posted from http://bearlamp.com.au/im-going-to-help-you-quit-facebook-with-some-science/
----------------------------------------
I was a serial Facebook addict. I used to spend 2+ hours a day on Facebook, most days. Until I worked out how to change my mind... |
4b651109-3104-4f43-859c-ddf94ec0baac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | the case for CoT unfaithfulness is overstated
[Quickly written, unpolished. Also, it's possible that there's some more convincing work on this topic that I'm unaware of – if so, let me know. Also also, it's possible I'm arguing with an imaginary position here and everyone already agrees with everything below.]
In res... |
e9dc126e-544b-48c1-819a-79cba374a725 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Seduced by Imagination
Today's post, Seduced by Imagination was originally published on 16 January 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Vagueness usually has a poor name in rationality, but the Future is something about which, in fact, we do not possess strong reliable specific information. Vagu... |
745b7f61-8d3f-4602-8333-58d5d0daa526 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Assessors that are hard to seduce
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
This is a stub of an idea, looking at "human in the loop"-type restrictions.
An assessor is a particular type of restriction. It involves a (generally) human agent, who is tasked with observing something (the behaviour of the agent, or... |
cffb7a63-e116-4033-9fbf-d6d483d8467a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Discovering Latent Knowledge in the Human Brain: Part 1 – Clarifying the concepts of belief and knowledge
*Acknowledgements: Many thanks to Milan Cvitkovic and Collin Burns for their help in workshopping this project proposal. Many of the ideas presented here regarding the use of neuroscience and neurotechnology were ... |
0718a0f2-f8b6-4288-bae4-07b842827483 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does anyone else feel LessWrong is slow?
Ever since the rewrite of LW, I've felt that performance has taken a pretty big hit. Even compared to other large sites like Facebook, LW seems to take longer to render.
I'm hoping someone from the dev team can answer if performance is something that has been optimized for?
E... |
9bda369c-b508-4f69-99ca-93c2ef6489ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could my work, "Beyond HaHa" benefit the LessWrong community?
I’m considering translating my work into English to share it with the LessWrong community, but I’d like to first ask if it aligns with the community's interests and could be valuable. Below is a summary of the work to help evaluate its relevance:
Beyon... |
3ad2f947-5369-4079-adf2-d491828df245 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superbabies: Putting The Pieces Together
This post was inspired by some talks at the recent LessOnline conference including one by LessWrong user “Gene Smith”.
Let’s say you want to have a “designer baby”. Genetically extraordinary in some way — super athletic, super beautiful, whatever.
6’5”, blue eyes, with a trus... |
46e16229-b821-4b94-ada4-f0e77e67637a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Attention - General - Summarizing with NMF [rough early thoughts]
the goal of these videos isn't just to
understand toy transformers we want to
be able to understand transformers as
they're used in practice the kind of
large models that um are getting all
these really exciting results lately
and in our previous video ... |
07c0a168-4114-4b60-a7ac-124683588522 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Word-Distance vs Idea-Distance: The Case for Lanoitaring
Defining Word-Distance
There’s a concept in information theory called Hamming Distance. Without delving too deeply into the theory, Hamming distance is a way of describing how different two sequences of characters are.
Take the two character sequences (in this ... |
f4bc27ff-825e-4a70-9d77-628d21042cdc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why isn't increasing ventilation of public spaces part of the best practice response to the Coronovirus?
It's my impression that there's some spread via aerosol in public spaces like buses and trains. By increasing ventilation in those spaces by opening more windows I find it plausible that we could reduce that transm... |
2454911d-ef49-4d65-96bf-d8854137e092 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 73: SA, The Sacred and the Mundane, Pt 8
The red jet of fire took Hannah full in the face, flipping her end-over-heels and smacking her head straight into the stone wall, where her pale face seemed to linger for an instant, framed by flying strands of brown-golden hair, before she collapsed to the ground in a ... |
27a2fd53-60b8-49a1-b3ca-33743144fc88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When Intuitions Are Useful
Part of the sequence: Rationality and Philosophy
In this series, I have examined how intuitions work so that I can clarify how rationalists1 should and shouldn't use their intuitions2 when solving philosophical problems. Understanding the cognitive algorithms that generate our intuitions ca... |
f8833387-fcf6-4be2-b11f-1ba490d78052 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thinking and Deciding: a chapter by chapter review
This is a chapter-by-chapter review of Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron (UPenn, twitter). It won't be a detailed summary like badger's excellent summary of Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment, in part because this is a 600-page textbook and so a f... |
4e72b7d9-e995-46f8-a23f-3d852c9699e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup 08-23-2011
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup 08-23-2011
WHEN: 23 August 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10800 West Pico Blvd, Suite 312, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7pm - 9pm August 23th.
Where: The Westside Pavillion - on the bridge, which connects Nordstrom 3rd floor with ... |
aeb0c750-fc97-4884-9f6c-025c8a6f94e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is "causal decision theory (CDT)"?
**Causal Decision Theory** – CDT – is a branch of [decision theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/decision-theory) which advises an agent to take actions which maximize the causal consequences on the probability of desired outcomes [^1^](#fn1). As any branch of decision theory, ... |
03d3aa85-7fe7-4036-a657-ebd6015e0e6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Behavioral and mechanistic definitions (often confuse AI alignment discussions)
TL;DR: It’s important to distinguish between behavioral definitions – which categorize objects based on outside observable properties – and mechanistic definitions – which categorize objects based on their internal mechanisms. In this post... |
3b25b657-63e5-4cd7-8cd7-62b67710426b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Server Sky: lots of very thin computer satellites
The following is intended as 1) request for specific criticisms regarding the value of time investment on this project, and 2) pending favorable answer to this, a request for further involvement from qualified individuals. It is not intended as a random piece of intere... |
70154980-4a99-49cb-b641-2074103e52ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An akrasia case study
I just lost 3 weeks to a report that should have taken 2 days. My last job was an engineering research position; setting up an experiment, building prototypes, that sort of thing. After I left, I needed to write a report to brief my successor on what I'd done and what could go wrong, etc. I wasn'... |
eac88434-4682-483e-8a53-b8de96315ba8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chris Dixon's Crypto Claims are Logically Flimsy
In this post, I make heavy use of the power to demolish bad arguments in the domain of crypto claims. The crypto world seems rich with areas where you can save a lot of wasted time and money by simply asking for a specific example of how a crypto project beats the best ... |
684de6af-5666-468b-9645-2a4b91de1985 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Top AI safety newsletters, books, podcasts, etc – new AISafety.com resource
Keeping up to date with rapid developments in AI/AI safety can be challenging. In addition, many AI safety newcomers want to learn more about the field through specific formats e.g. books or videos.
To address both of these needs, we’ve added... |
db283ce1-4c03-4e7e-a362-160bee87d08b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comment on "Death and the Gorgon"
(some plot spoilers)
There's something distinctly uncomfortable about reading Greg Egan in the 2020s. Besides telling gripping tales with insightful commentary on the true nature of mind and existence, Egan stories written in the 1990s and set in the twenty-first century excelled at ... |
592f3aad-81fd-4922-a266-b56563eec8c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | ‘Force multipliers’ for EA research
Introduction
------------
> TLDR: If solutions to the world’s most pressing problems require people with scarce, expensive skills then we should seek to discover and implement cost effective ‘force multipliers’ that maximise the productivity of these people.
>
>
> With experi... |
e943d73c-8f72-411a-a64b-cdf9384251c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will AI See Sudden Progress?
Will advanced AI let some small group of people or AI systems take over the world?
AI X-risk folks and others have accrued lots of arguments about this over the years, but I think this debate has been disappointing in terms of anyone changing anyone else’s mind, or much being resolved. I ... |
8e381a7e-5e7f-4c83-b0c2-bd0b7de831bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Altman Technocracy
Imagine if the city of New York was inherited by newly sentient human beings a couple hundred years from now. These descendants of ours have no civil engineers or architects among them. They cannot even guess as to how these magnificent, glassy structures are made. Yet, every day they walk into ... |
a414ee03-34c9-4dba-8a56-b90940773ff3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Distilled Representations Research Agenda
Introduction
------------
Schematic of the basic training strategyI’ve recently been given funding from the [Long Term Future Fund](https://funds.effectivealtruis... |
41e62ace-2e77-4436-a025-614947cb49ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Please Understand
In which a case is made for worrying about the AI Prompt Box.
Preamble
Technology serves to abstract away nonessential aspects of creative activities, giving us more direct access to their conceptual cores. Few audio engineers pine for the days of flaky reel-to-reel tape machines that unspool at th... |
473d426b-646c-4f07-aa11-005731771a12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any real toeholds for making practical decisions regarding AI safety?
Let's call the thing where you try to take actions that make everyone/yourself less dead (on expectation) the "safety game". This game is annoyingly chaotic, kind of like Arimaa.
You write the sequences then some risk-averse not-very-power-seekin... |
1f58c6fb-968b-448e-8f42-5c496a6b1e20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Google’s Ethical AI team and AI Safety
cross-posted from my blog
Background on the events
I have been thinking about this since the firing of Dr. Timnit Gebru, and yet still no one has actually written about it beyond my own tweets, so I guess it falls to me.
I find, and I imagine many people in the rat-sphere agre... |
efbbebb8-6698-408b-83c7-8965a85b91f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LessWrong Main on August 22nd. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Australia-wide mega-meetup: 24 August 2014 07:00PM
* Hamburg - Diet: 29 August 2014 07:00PM
* Houston, TX: 13 September 2014 02:00PM
* ... |
1cbd0bd9-62d3-46f0-bd2a-4a43fa2c79c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Update on the Mysterious Trump Buyers on Polymarket
I've written a follow-up post on the mysterious Trump buyers on Polymarket. While mainstream media has extensively covered this story, it has overlooked some critical details—most notably, that this trader's bet on Trump is closer to $75 million USDC, making it the l... |
2bd2984e-4d97-4486-a4e6-219a4f694c81 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Superintelligent Will: Motivation and Instrumental Rationality In Advanced Intelligent Agents
1 THE SUPERINTELLIGENT WILL: MOTIVA TION AND
INSTRUMENT AL RATIONALITY IN ADVANCED
ARTIFICIAL AGENTS
(2012) Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanit y Institute
Facult y of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School
Oxford University... |
8eafc10a-d204-4f24-97c4-105c04831008 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How should DeepMind's Chinchilla revise our AI forecasts?
Acknowledgements: I wrote this report as part of a six-hour paid work-trial with Epoch AI.
Epistemic status: My dataset analysis is a bit simplistic but the inference I draw from it seems likely. The implications for TAI timelines, in descending order of confid... |
95c980a9-34d0-4408-8d5c-f3c2309ab13d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can subjunctive dependence emerge from a simplicity prior?
Suppose that an embedded agent models its environment using an approximate simplicity prior, would it acquire a physicalist agent ontology or an algorithmic/logical agent ontology?
One argument for the logical agent ontology is that it allows the agent to com... |
ab68c425-e39d-4de7-97e2-82af183d1093 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Calibration Training and Potluck - Portland
Discussion article for the meetup : Calibration Training and Potluck - Portland
WHEN: 12 July 2014 06:31:27PM (-0700)
WHERE: Portland, Oregon
I'm looking to do some calibration training using the format described in How to Measure Anything. I'm looking forward to... |
87a3c4f2-56c3-43a9-8457-045df8283a5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | X-Risk, Anthropics, & Peter Thiel's Investment Thesis
This story is cross-posted from my blog, jacksonw.xyz, and from the EA Forum.
Summary: I analyze an essay by Peter Thiel, in which he explains:
* How markets are incentivized to ignore the risk of civilizational collapse.
* How this introduces distortions in bo... |
db4ab3b6-956f-4db0-8536-b4c618b487b9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Capability amplification
(*Note: In the past I have referred to this process as ‘bootstrapping’ or ‘policy amplification,’ but those terms are too broad — there are other dimensions along which policies can be amplified, and ‘bootstrapping’ is used all over the place.*)
Defining the “intended behavior” of a powerful ... |
d9c77a3f-abba-4975-a14c-c7815010fac2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP: Store, Patreon, Video
Some announcements:
* AXRP now has a store, where you can buy t-shirts and hoodies and stickers and such.
* AXRP now has a Patreon and a ko-fi, where you can support the podcast and get some perks.
* There’s now a video of an excerpt from episode 14, where Vanessa Kosoy explains the mon... |
13c9b805-c7ea-47a6-89d2-5ef92ccdf49f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Normal Ending: Last Tears
Today's post, Normal Ending: Last Tears (6/8) was originally published on 04 February 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Humanity accepts the Superhappies' bargain.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the R... |
d7a24457-1a8f-48b6-af5f-1fb8c54c83d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
I go to Amazon, search for “air conditioner”, and sort by average customer rating. There’s a couple pages of evaporative coolers (not what I’m looking for), one used window unit (?), and then this:
Average rating: 4.7 ou... |
c5f59616-3553-4387-88be-da8b9ed9d0da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2023 Unofficial LessWrong Census/Survey
The Less Wrong General Census is unofficially here! You can take it at this link.
Update: The census is closed! Thank you everyone who took it.
It's that time again.
If you are reading this post and identify as a LessWronger, then you are the target audience. I'd appreciate i... |
5d28ef07-d050-4175-92ad-c79959b50fc2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there any active play-money prediction markets online?
Prediction markets that trade in play-money rather than real money seem like a great idea to me: they avoid all the legal issues of real prediction markets, they don't seem to be much less accurate, and it might be fun to participate in them. But I can't find ... |
770bd1e3-4149-475d-8222-f9afc0619423 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread: October 2009
Hear ye, hear ye: commence the discussion of things which have not been discussed.
As usual, if a discussion gets particularly good, spin it off into a posting.
(For this Open Thread, I'm going to try something new: priming the pump with a few things I'd like to see discussed.) |
b14b6490-246e-472b-9891-1c5ecc971306 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Ability to read algebra
This requisite asks whether you can read a sentence that throws in algebra or a mathematical concept, without slowing down too much. For instance, a sentence remarking that in the limit of flipping N coins each with a 1/N probability of coming up heads, the chance of never getting heads is 1/*... |
a630edc9-88ab-4390-93a3-fa31a1cd4644 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prisoner's Dilemma Tournament Results
About two weeks ago I announced an open competition for LessWrong readers inspired by Robert Axelrod's famous tournaments. The competitors had to submit a strategy which would play an iterated prisoner's dilemma of fixed length: first in the round-robin tournament where the strate... |
43bd6e20-86dd-480e-a87c-531b29002dda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Attempt To Explain No-Self In Simple Terms
[this is a repost from my personal blog explanationing.wordpress.com. Look there for posts explaining my priors.]
Our conscious experience of the world is tuned to the level of detail that our mind deems most important to our continued survival. We experience shapes, colo... |
884bf24f-d7a6-4bb1-aaf7-6e9e6420485f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to LessWrong Prague [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequentl... |
dbfe5062-48ca-460a-af78-cd9dd83b797d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On AI Detectors Regarding College Applications
What are AI Detectors
You've probably already used them before, websites like GPTZero, ZeroGPT, Grammarly, Quilbot, all have their own AI Detectors. AI Detectors can be a combination of Pre-trained LLMS, Statistical Models, and Ml models using NLP(Natural Language Proce... |
94517db1-615c-4877-9ad7-09d95be6eeb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Debt is an Anti-investment
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.
----------------------------------------
Since I wrote Get Rich Slowly I’ve received a steady stream of questions regarding personal finance. The most common of those is: should I prioritize investing or paying off my debts?
Get Rich Slowly wasn’t meant to b... |
6b0d6cd9-d756-4a79-bc4c-dafe96dc0e61 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Doom and David Hume: A Defence of Empiricism in AI Safety
### **0. Introduction**
An essay being [worth $50,000 dollars](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/open-philanthropy-ai-worldviews-contest/) is a bold claim, so here is another— the person best equipped to adjust your AI existential risk predictions is the 18t... |
145b545f-46e3-4684-ba66-34e04ee0ed5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does the EA community do "basic science" grants? How do I get one?
I'm graduating in either May or August of 2019 with a PhD in statistics. During my studies, I've made progress on several projects related to voting theory. Since these are not directly related to statistics, I haven't managed to finish these up and pu... |
68589342-8168-4fac-ae69-42bb80c58a98 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | It Looks Like You’re Trying To Take Over The Narrative
*Note to reader: If the idea of “AI alignment” rings empty to you, feel free to skip this one, it will be uninteresting.*
Recently, Gwern wrote a story about an [AI taking over the world](https://www.gwern.net/fiction/Clippy). While well thought-out and amusing i... |
84364e43-80db-47ef-93e8-a4450032903f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | DSLT 1. The RLCT Measures the Effective Dimension of Neural Networks
*TLDR; This is the first post of Distilling Singular Learning Theory (DSLT), an introduction to which can be read at* [*DSLT0*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xRWsfGfvDAjRWXcnG/dslt-0-distilling-singular-learning-theory)*. In this post I explain how... |
b5a10809-6192-4743-bc79-a71546ae0f85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal-Completeness is like Turing-Completeness for AGI
Turing-completeness is a useful analogy we can use to grasp why AGI will inevitably converge to “goal-completeness”.
By way of definition: An AI whose input is an arbitrary goal, which outputs actions to effectively steer the future toward that goal, is goal-compl... |
cc47f2ce-f1fa-400e-a019-4e245a109c62 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Bing (GPT 4) Just Made Smartphones MUCH Smarter (next-level Android and iOS app)
Bing app now available on Android and
iOS is about efficiency over
extravagance it's on your phone so it's
not about essay writing compiling code
or making funny poems in French it's
about taking search to the next level no
I'm not sponso... |
385beb60-d7a2-4402-9a70-6c02ebf0ca8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : July Rationality Dojo: Disagreement
Discussion article for the meetup : July Rationality Dojo: Disagreement
WHEN: 06 July 2014 03:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 491 King Street, West Melbourne
[ATTN: The dojo roster is has all free slots starting from next month, if you would like to present at a future Dojo or su... |
f57226c7-439f-4c9b-a653-0a0e126ce617 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | “Eating Dirt Benefits Kids” is Basically Made Up
Sometimes people imply that epistemic spot checks are a waste of time, that it’s too easy to create false beliefs with statements that are literally true but fundamentally misleading. And sometimes they’re right.
On the other hand, sometimes you spend 4 hours and disco... |
2b4b4727-e365-493d-92ff-f295aa8166f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Another view of quantilizers: avoiding Goodhart's Law
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space... |
dfa2a19c-50e7-42b8-8f9d-f95cd99e3700 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI, Cybersecurity, and Malware: A Shallow Report [General]
This post summarises recent progress in AI-enabled malware detection for the general public.
**Why read a post about AI-enabled malware detection?** It has large impacts in protecting technology for democratic elections; technology for biosecurity (ex: algor... |
5175e659-815c-4f91-b80d-b08e5aa7804c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Existential risk x Crypto: An unconference at Zuzalu
Dear Effective Altruists,
I am excited to announce an unconference-styled event on the intersection of existential risks and crypto/Web3. The event will take place on May 4-6, 2023 at Vitalik's new pop-up city experiment called [Zuzalu](https://zuzalu.org).
The i... |
993e645f-7ecd-4fa7-9734-fff926917be0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantified Risks of Gay Male Sex
If you are a gay male then you’ve probably worried at one point about sexually transmitted diseases. Indeed men who have sex with men have some of the highest prevalence of many of these diseases. And if you’re not a gay male, you’ve probably still thought about STDs at one point. But ... |
8bf9d6b9-7ba2-49bb-957f-b4f62d28b036 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probability of AI-Caused Disaster
This post presents a summary and comparison of predictions from Manifold and Metaculus to investigate how likely AI-caused disasters are, with focus on potential severity. I will explore the probability of specific incidents—like IP theft or rogue AI incidents—in a future post.
This ... |
1311df1a-13d8-4348-b9d1-7d8d1d24b749 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "What is true is already so. Owning up to it doesn’t make it worse. Not being open about it doesn’t make it go away. And because it’s true, it is what is there to be interacted with. Anything untrue isn’t there to be lived. People can stand what is true, for they are already enduring it. —Eugene Gendlin"
What you see a... |
0bfeca4e-1571-4c47-8ad9-bfbea2684fae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Omicron Post #15
Omicron has fully taken over, and our uncertainty about it has mostly been resolved. The Omicron pandemic is now the Covid-19 pandemic, and we’re back in a kind of ‘normal mode’ albeit at the top of the Omicron wave.
A few weeks ago, the majority of the information and week’s discussion were in the O... |
d3f53dde-c64f-4677-b377-84097a0e5010 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do uncertainty/planning costs make convex hulls unrealistic?
It's almost a rule that as soon as you have a "utility of possible outcomes" plot like this:
You must then say "and by randomly choosing between the outcomes, we can achieve any intermediate outcome in terms of utility within the convex hull of these points... |
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