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89039953-0511-4ea2-b84a-6a3d268ac759 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are the LLM "intelligence" tests publicly available for humans to take?
I've seen a lot of news lately about the ways that particular LLMs score on particular tests.
Which if any of those tests can I go take online to see how my performance on them compares to the models? |
7e4034c3-e419-41e8-99ef-346cc058dde5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] More Right launched
Various people (including Konkvistador who has been talking about it the most) have launched their blog More Right
"A group blog, More Right is a place to discuss the many things that are touched by politics that we prefer wouldn’t be, as well as right wing ideas in general. It grew out of ... |
c0ee8ee8-3a32-4502-b305-c9185a036a84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uncontrollable AI as an Existential Risk
The following text is meant to be an introduction to existential risks from advanced AI for professionals outside of the AI safety community, in particular scientists in other relevant fields, politicians, and other decision-makers. The aim is to raise awareness of the problem ... |
b0a8878d-a41f-406c-87fb-98a75fe87aaf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | DeepMind team on specification gaming
[Specification gaming: the flip side of AI ingenuity](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Specification-gaming-the-flip-side-of-AI-ingenuity) |
f0a44d1b-2719-4869-8ab4-febac4b5c2dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When is further research needed?
Here's a simple theorem in utility theory that I haven't seen anywhere. Maybe it's standard knowledge, or maybe not.
TL,DR: More information is never a bad thing.
The theorem proved below says that before you make an observation, you cannot expect it to decrease your utility, but you... |
70aa4bb8-ed0e-4299-ac79-10b6f4b41bd7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, August 2010
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post. |
95c62750-cac2-4be3-b2b2-be90df46920e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revisiting shared experiences
In crafting my original world modelling of love, there was a blindspot due to the significant age of my relationships. Looking back in the long run, the power of shared experiences looks like a log curve, but the reality is that different experiences have different power and it only looks... |
3f01aaf3-81bc-4bb1-bde4-b9a61ee83dfd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List of Problems That Motivated UDT
I noticed that recently I wrote several comments of the form "UDT can be seen as a step towards solving X" and thought it might be a good idea to list in one place all of the problems that helped motivate UDT1 (not including problems that came up subsequent to that post).
* decis... |
d82acb35-163c-4ebe-b442-abd2b97c4eee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metarationality: a messy introduction
This post tries to address 'all we got were these lousy Kegan levels' critiques of metarationality by pointing at a bunch of interesting concrete topics and shouting excitedly.
It's pretty long, tl;dr below:
* How we think we think, vs. how we actually think: if you look closel... |
12895a6f-60d0-4e5a-b569-1235ca996e33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to become an AI safety researcher
Crossposted from the EA Forum.
Reminder that you can listen to this post and other LessWrong posts on your podcast player with The Nonlinear Library.
What skills do you need to work on AI safety? And what can we learn from the paths people have taken into the field? We were insp... |
0261b35a-dfde-418c-a6a9-67fc3085db66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Moore's Paradox
Today's post, Moore's Paradox was originally published on 08 March 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> People often mistake reasons for endorsing a proposition for reasons to believe that proposition.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
T... |
975b56e0-afa2-4937-814e-7019f091c10b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Principles of Disagreement
Followup to: The Rhythm of Disagreement
At the age of 15, a year before I knew what a "Singularity" was, I had learned about evolutionary psychology. Even from that beginning, it was apparent to me that people talked about "disagreement" as a matter of tribal status, processing it with th... |
76ebbe8e-d335-4fa2-b5c5-fd1a0a7702c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on the Double Impact Project
How it works
You donate to the Republican or Democratic pool. The pool with the highest amount donates what it has more at the margin to their political party. Everything else goes to other charities. For a better and more complete explanation, check out: https://doubleimpact.char... |
18857322-bff9-492d-aab7-9dae02f4b690 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(cross posted on my roam blog)There's an old Paul Graham Essay, "Keep Your Identity Small". It's short so it's worth it to read the whole thing right now if you've never seen it. The yisbifiefyb ("yeah it's short but i'm functionally illiterate except for your blog") is roughly "When something becomes part of your ide... |
a3d5c292-7215-4736-8893-f6fe0cdb97f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notification update and PM fixes
Hey everyone,
I just pushed an update that changes the layout of the notifications section to something that should be significantly easier to navigate (and after we've seen it work well for a few days, we will also add a small number next to the bell-icon that tells you how many unre... |
426a05cb-468b-4b2b-9863-a27134ed73be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's going on here?
Edit: Please stop upvoting me. I'm beyond where I was when this whole mess started. Thanks, and I feel really stupid for the way I felt when I wrote this first paragraph now.
First of all, I'm sorry for this thread. I largely expect it to get downvoted, but I am considering leaving LW over th... |
1495c3ae-ac3c-4b6e-8e3b-f3e3e898bbd7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | GPT-3 Gems
GPT-3 is captivating, and not just because of its [potential reasoning abilities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L5JSMZQvkBAx9MD5A/to-what-extent-is-gpt-3-capable-of-reasoning). This post will be a living collection of my favorite experiences with the network.
Bold text is my input; square brackets conta... |
61c57ce7-627b-48c9-9505-0319bacd0074 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Needs parent
This page is not attached to an appropriate parent page. |
c326ae5a-430e-45cb-8e3b-435ec4043343 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Automation collapse
Summary: If we validate automated alignment research through empirical testing, the safety assurance work will still need to be done by humans, and will be similar to that needed for human-written alignment algorithms.
Three levels of automated AI safety
Automating AI safety means developing some... |
541cb0eb-d255-435e-a2a3-ce391af90b50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Defense Mechanisms
There is much talk about cognitive heuristics and biases in the Rationality community, whereas psychodynamic/psychoanalytic perspectives of psychology tend to be dismissed as "bad science". Now, I will agree that some Freudian ideas like penis envy and Oedipus complex are silly -- but that doesn'... |
56a27882-5f78-4acf-98c2-c87ed60b31c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Be more effective by learning important practical knowledge using flashcards
I made a collection of 200+ flashcards (Part 1 together with part 2) to help remember useful life lessons from hundreds of great books, videos, podcasts and other sources. It includes knowledge to
* Make more informed decisions.
* Determi... |
26d2cfd8-56b9-441e-ac5b-5868a90ba0e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A few misconceptions surrounding Roko's basilisk
There's a new [LWW page](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Roko's%20basilisk) on the Roko's basilisk thought experiment, discussing both Roko's original post and the fallout that came out of Eliezer Yudkowsky banning the topic on *Less Wrong* discussion threads. The wiki p... |
4fec0488-1b2e-49a3-99c6-d9d642e23df1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On desiring subjective states (post 3 of 3)
Carol puts her left hand in a bucket of hot water, and lets it acclimate for a few minutes. Meanwhile her right hand is acclimating to a bucket of ice water. Then she plunges both hands into a bucket of lukewarm water. The lukewarm water feels very different to her two ha... |
399ebd5f-f831-43c4-b26d-eb227ea1ad8b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Auditing Visualizations: Transparency Methods Struggle to Detect Anomalous Behavior
1 Introduction
---------------
Neural networks with similar validation accuracy can behave very differently when deployed. A network can have a high validation accuracy, but be vulnerable to distribution shift, backdoors, or spuriou... |
080ba4e4-1dff-4fb3-93d3-83f2374e3e07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wealth from Self-Replicating Robots
I have high confidence that economically-valuable self-replicating robots are possible with existing technology: initially, something similar in size and complexity to a RepRap, but able to assemble a copy of itself from parts ordered online with zero human interaction. This is impo... |
a304e645-1952-4830-92d0-6c7213df4240 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Prediction] The Consequences of Radical Reform
Scott Alexander suggests readers make a prediction.
> Under Napoleon, the revolutionary French took over large swathes of Europe. They abolished their client states' traditional systems, replacing them with the Napoleonic Code and other "modern" legal systems. Europe at... |
c09be4f3-02be-40d4-b322-f2ad05a85bfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2020 LessWrong Demographics Survey Results
Thank you to everyone who participated! You can see the original post here, but the survey is now closed. Here are the results:
Google forms results: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfHJtg9ju6cCDl7T1PZvuBC9aIYIEN4Qb_MoQFPa9iMkUIFLQ/viewanalytics
Copy of the origina... |
800fd086-5147-43ec-8ed4-7eeb2b88f219 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confusion about Sequences and Review Sequences
I just made a series of attempted actions on the site that ended up with me being confused. Am I missing ways to use the site, or are these ways missing?
I was reading the page for the 2019 review book launch, and someone commented that the table of contents has no links... |
4f820eba-49b9-4416-9edc-4b5a7dc9f56c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your Preferences
Hello, I am curious about your most basic preferences. I would like you to state them as many as possible.
You can use relation signs (<, >, ...), E. g.: true knowledge > ignorance > false knowledge, which would mean that you prefer true knowledge over ignorance, and ignorance over false knowledge. |
315afc59-6009-4f22-ac12-e285f0120494 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Occam's Razor
The more complex an explanation is, the more evidence you need just to find it in belief-space. (In Traditional Rationality this is often phrased misleadingly, as “The more complex a proposition is, the more evidence is required to argue for it.”) How can we measure the complexity of an explanation? How ... |
0948a0ee-ad30-477e-92db-653ac2fbea2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Declare your signaling and hidden agendas
Follow-up to: It's okay to be (at least a little) irrational
Many science journals require their authors to declare any competing interests they happen to have. For instance, if you're submitting a study about the health effects of tobacco, and you happen to sit on the boar... |
f6e6a6b4-73e4-4d39-923e-1e19a4e4283c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Eliezer Yudkowsky on "Three Major Singularity Schools"
our next speaker is eliezer yudkowsky
he's from my colleagues at the
singularity Institute he's one of the
co-founders and research fellow he's
going to be talking a little bit about
the different schools of thoughts around
this notion of the singularity and
Eliez... |
51122ea8-70a9-4a51-a7ec-88f7540005ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Userscript to always show LW comments in context vs at the top
The out of context top-level display of comments when I navigate to them always bothered me, but up until recently I haven't realized there is a way to go to the actual comment via a simple URL change.
From https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/<postid>/?comme... |
23dc0b0a-1057-43c5-b640-43617308b138 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What if Alignment is Not Enough?
The following is a summary of Substrate Needs Convergence, as described in The Control Problem: Unsolved or Unsolvable?, No People as Pets (summarized here by Roman Yen), my podcast interview with Remmelt, and this conversation with Anders Sandberg. Remmelt assisted in the editing of ... |
da4d667c-2e09-49e0-9be1-02e47ccff55b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zen and Rationality: Trust in Mind
This is post 2/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.
In today's installment, I look at "trust in mind" from a rationalist perspective.
I really like Trust in Mind, a Zen teaching poem attributed to the Third Pa... |
d144a11b-04af-482c-a261-cce5fecad733 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Amazon closing AmazonSmile to focus its philanthropic giving to programs with greater impact
I just received the following email. There's also a notice up on their website. Since many folks here use AmazonSmile to make additional donations to charities, thought folks should know.
> Dear customer,
>
> In 2013, we lau... |
8a8b8253-6dc7-414c-ad6b-f049425724b9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Caelum est Conterrens: I frankly don't see how this is a horror story
So Eliezer said in his March 1st [HPMOR progress report](http://hpmor.com/notes/progress-13-03-01/):
>
> I recommend the recursive fanfic “[Friendship is Optimal: Caelum est Conterrens](http://www.fimfiction.net/story/69770/friendship-is-optimal... |
2e96ee3a-ecd5-4659-b63d-e10ab9688a71 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Transfer of Adversarial Robustness Between Perturbation Types
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep networks have shown remarkable accuracy on benchmark
tasks (He et al., [2016](#bib.bib12)), but can also be fooled by
imperceptible changes to inputs, known as adversarial
examples (Goodfellow et al., [2014](#bib.bib10... |
c94e2f11-dc76-4b93-b52c-d8bac140e4f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Linkpost] A General Language Assistant as a Laboratory for Alignment
This is a linkpost for a recent paper from Anthropic: [A General Language Assistant as a Laboratory for Alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.00861).
Abstract:
> Given the broad capabilities of large language models, it should be possible to work... |
d71d0fc9-0e37-4388-a325-91bd40b528a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Convincing All Capability Researchers
This post is heavily based off this excellent comment (the author's name is not relevant)
> Give the world's thousand most respected AI researchers $1M each to spend 3 months working on AI alignment, with an extra $100M if by the end they can propose a solution alignment research... |
3b1f2146-8c0e-4ccc-b717-3d342ed6f0d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Killing Moloch with "Nudge tech"?
Context
I come from the SaaS startup world and I intend to help kill some inadequate equilibria in the next few years, specifically around the attention economy.
I'll outline what I'm thinking, below, and would appreciate any help from the LW community:
Specific questions I hope to ... |
1f210dc2-4e71-414d-b8ef-19644f290ac1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Huntington's Disease; power and duty of parents over offsprings
Huntington's Disease
Basic facts about Huntington's Disease:
* Huntington's Disease is an inherited disorder that results in death of brain cells.
* Symptoms usually begin between 30 and 50 years of age, death typically occurs fifteen to twenty years l... |
0d598391-80a8-4920-9dda-96f9ab5a05bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 3-bit filters
I've come to appreciate my gut feeling for how things in my everyday life feel over time.
To distill the process of checking in with your actual felt sense of things into a neat information-theoretic package, I've recently been using a 3-bit filter: Three yes-or-no questions you can ask yourself that wi... |
f5bb1080-fd44-409c-a497-a1ac3e85e945 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimating the benefits of a new flu drug (BXM)
Introduction
H5N1 is a looming threat, making regular headlines. The CDC has identified 66 U.S. human cases as of January 4, 2024. Scott Alexander has a recent post outlining the situation.
There are several FDA-approved prescription antiviral flu drugs. The newest, usi... |
d382f163-e359-4fef-887b-8003947adc15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lawrence Watt-Evans's Fiction
One of my pet topics, on which I will post more one of these days, is the Rationalist in Fiction. Most of the time - it goes almost without saying - the Rationalist is done completely wrong. In Hollywood, the Rationalist is a villain, or a cold emotionless foil, or a child who has to gr... |
ce0ce27c-30fd-4803-b605-e53ec2ff636d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup: June
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup: June
WHEN: 02 June 2017 06:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: The Bull and Bear Tavern, Flinders Lane, Melbourne
The MelbLW social meetup has moved to an exciting new schedule! We are now on the first Friday of each month. Come ... |
e50d99d5-5225-4cf7-b866-aaa39f06be12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Loebian cooperation in the tiling agents problem
The tiling agents problem is about formalizing how AIs can create successor AIs that are at least as smart. Here's a toy model I came up with, which is similar to Benya's old model but simpler. A computer program X is asked one of two questions:
* Would you like some ... |
97d1031f-711a-47c9-9c11-9ae41b923004 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 13 March 2016 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
We will be meeting to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation.
If you would like to play a game that takes a long time, please feel wel... |
8b297211-0910-4498-ba80-2fc34c5c4fb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yet more "stupid" questions
This is a thread where people can ask questions that they would ordinarily feel embarrassed for not knowing the answer to. The previous thread is at close to 500 comments. |
401f9535-eb94-45f6-a17b-a05ea4ad4245 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [$10k bounty] Read and compile Robin Hanson’s best posts
I think Robin Hanson's ideas are not read nearly as widely as they should be, in part because it's difficult to navigate his many, many blog posts (I estimate he's written 2000 of them exactly 3302 of them). So I'd like to pay someone to read through all his wri... |
e5df8bb8-d1ab-48f4-b090-55b1b6de74ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Randomness in Science
I.
Humans have a randomness problem. We are bad at generating randomness as individuals (try to out-random a computer in Man vs. Machine) and in the aggregate - ask a group of people to choose a “random” number between 1-20 and the most common number will be 17. We are also bad at detecting ran... |
1accf325-a1db-4435-9a85-b6c2583d5e92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Future directions for narrow value learning
Narrow value learning is a huge field that people are already working on (though not by that name) and I can’t possibly do it justice. This post is primarily a list of things that I think are important and interesting, rather than an exhaustive list of directions to pursue. ... |
a2091c00-bfa3-4b7a-b39b-8054b9cc9c7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link Post] Bytes Are All You Need: Transformers Operating Directly On File Bytes
> Modern deep learning approaches usually transform inputs into a modality-specific form. For example, the most common deep learning approach to image classification involves decoding image file bytes into an RGB tensor which is passed... |
f4b207d3-352e-4207-9f76-5652fb9f5123 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intermittent Distillations #3
Mundane solutions to exotic problems (Paul Christiano)
Mundane solutions to exotic problems
Summary
Thinking about AI safety often leads to considering exotic problems: models purposefully altering their gradients, agents hiding their capabilities to defect when an opportunity arises, o... |
041195a4-781a-4c72-8247-313072724f92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Alignment Problem: Requirement not optional (A Critical Analysis through Mass Effect Trilogy)
Author: TAWSIF AHMED
Alignment, (Dictionary definition: a position of agreement or alliance). In Artificial Intelligence, Alignment means computers and human beings going along with each other “fine”.
Now coming back t... |
5b5e7521-b62c-4294-b67e-a7cbcd395a50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper: Identifying the Risks of LM Agents with an LM-Emulated Sandbox - University of Toronto 2023 - Benchmark consisting of 36 high-stakes tools and 144 test cases!
Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.15817
Github: https://github.com/ryoungj/toolemu
Website: https://toolemu.com/
Abstract:
> Recent advances in Langu... |
44eb34e2-60ed-435c-984c-950aee289177 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Would Have Solved Alignment, But I Was Worried That Would Advance Timelines
The alignment community is ostensibly a group of people concerned about AI risk. Lately, it would be more accurate to describe it as a group of people concerned about AI timelines.
AI timelines have some relation to AI risk. Slower timeline... |
7f959ce7-576b-4ff5-a061-aa70fc6b1264 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 🐶Safetensors audited as really safe and becoming the default
Audit shows that safetensors is safe and ready to become the default
====================================================================
[Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/), in close collaboration with [EleutherAI](https://www.eleuther.ai/) and [Stab... |
40bca758-9d1f-4824-b359-98a7348803a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wednesday Sept. 21, 7pm
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wednesday Sept. 21, 7pm
WHEN: 21 September 2011 07:00:00AM (-0600)
WHERE: Bean Cycle, 144 North College Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80524
An opportunity to practice improving your thinking s... |
22626131-2187-4829-8c03-8e56f7c922a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Resolved] Who else prefers "AI alignment" to "AI safety?"
Edit:
1. User davidad wrote a comprehensive overview of other actors in the field who have begun using AI alignment instead of AI safety as the standard terminology to refer to the control problem. It seems this is a general or growing preference in the fie... |
6798b7d8-c12e-42eb-8ddc-ac5428a6b889 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effective Evil
Many years ago, a blogger made a post advocating for an evil Y-Combinator which subsidized the opposite of Effective Altruism. Everyone (including the blogger) thought the post was a joke except the supervillains. The organization they founded celebrated its 10th anniversary this year. An attendee leake... |
33f5a35a-bb6e-4551-b124-0dfc301b7a76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pause AI Development?
I like the basic idea of a pause in training increasingly powerful AIs. Yet I'm quite dissatisfied with any specific plan that I can think of.
AI research is proceeding at a reckless pace. There's massive disagreement among intelligent people as to how dangerous this is.
I participated in a for... |
1c68a7fd-bad4-482b-9eac-8e6d59fa38a8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Proofs Section 2.2 (Isomorphism to Expectations)
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: now... |
672d9623-9de6-431f-8f78-bf43d07ae0b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] SMBC on Confirmation Bias
The latest SMBC made me laugh a bit, so I thought I'd bring extra LessWrong attention to it.
I don't know if pointing out the subject of the comic in advance will make it more or less funny. Knowing that might be more data regarding that recent study claiming that spoilers don't actua... |
a67b17ae-4174-415e-a3cd-149201a17583 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Changes in Reality
[Some short thoughts I just wanted to get out of my brain; bullet-points instead of well-structured prose. This is entirely random speculation, and not well-explained. Cross-posted from Grand, Unified, Empty.]
* Social systems (laws, customs, memes) are subject to evolutionary pressure from the dy... |
d9fd3a99-6e8b-455f-9963-cff1a8b9f2ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Manifold Predicted the AI Extinction Statement and CAIS Wanted it Deleted
Crosspost from https://news.manifold.markets/p/manifold-predicted-the-ai-extinction
History may look back on CAIS’s AI risk statement as a pivotal moment IF we survive AI.
But, what if I told you that AI researchers “leaked” info about the st... |
244547b7-8319-435d-a620-136124205980 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moral intuitions are surprisingly variable
When building moral frameworks, moral intuitions are “our first and only source of data”. Further quoting the Consequentalism FAQ:
> Searching for moral rules means searching for principles that correctly describe and justify enough of our existing moral intuition that we fe... |
e0de5047-8e3a-45fd-af80-6f71a75759f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA—R:AZ Part D, Mysterious Answers
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA—R:AZ Part D, Mysterious Answers
WHEN: 22 April 2015 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 11066 Santa Monica Blvd, Los Angeles, CA
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. We will be in the back room if possible.
Parking is free in the ... |
22037fd8-1e7c-414d-8d06-25a30e660729 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | RLHF
I’ve been thinking about Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) a lot lately, mostly as a result of [my AGISF capstone project](https://github.com/anshradh/trl_custom) attempting to use it to teach a language model to write better responses to Reddit writing prompts, a la [Learning to summarize from hu... |
c8225e56-7ebe-4155-9e14-c0abe22899fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Environments for Measuring Deception, Resource Acquisition, and Ethical Violations
Models are rapidly being deployed in the real world. How do we evaluate models, especially ones as complex as GPT-4, to ensure that they behave safely in pursuit of their objectives? Can we design models that robustly avoid any harms wh... |
1e93272c-0984-4505-b331-6f2c6aac8d0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Improving productivity and wellbeing
Epistemic status : A decently thought out synthesis of a few books and other sources mixed together with my own thinking. This is not professional work, does not reflect personal knowledge of an expert consensus, and was not yet fully tested. For more on the limitations and flaws o... |
f20e4502-57ac-49d8-a4a0-1e888a9b5e41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Assuming LK99 or similar: how to accelerate commercialization?
Tabling the question of whether LK99 itself is a room temperature superconductor, I wonder about how we would commercialize it assuming it (or something similar) is, as rapidly as possible. I was reading Ben Reinhardt's Metalessons from the LK-99 Saga post... |
062f0d98-c7af-4d90-b9c4-17b3c9c69e09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2021 Darwin Game - Contestants
123 players submitted a total of 556 species. Most players submitted just 1 species. One player submitted 11. (I disqualified his[1] 11ᵗʰ submission.) 555 species qualified for entry. I expected more players would submit 10 species compared to 8 or 9 in order to max out their submissions... |
f2f32aff-cd44-4feb-b1c9-5eaa601fb438 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Claude 3.0
CLAUDE 3.0
Claude 3.0 is here. It is too early to know for certain how capable it is, but Claude 3.0’s largest version is in a similar class to GPT-4 and Gemini Advanced. It could plausibly now be the best model for many practical uses, with praise especially coming in on coding and creative writing.
A... |
e9ea1dbb-cf0e-474a-8069-15cee3d3c1e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prices or Bindings?
Followup to: Ethical Injunctions
During World War II, Knut Haukelid and three other saboteurs sank a civilian Norwegian ferry ship, the SF Hydro, carrying a shipment of deuterium for use as a neutron moderator in Germany's atomic weapons program. Eighteen dead, twenty-nine survivors. And that w... |
01b80cd5-6e3d-45d6-86c7-38ae20984213 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On pointless waiting
I’ve often noticed in myself a tendency, if I am not doing something immediately engrossing, to find myself waiting.
Waiting, waiting, waiting, not really being present, just willing time to pass.
But the weird thing is, frequently there isn’t anything in particular that I’m waiting for. Getting... |
688a6b4d-fb27-432e-94a6-e2589abb93bf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Informed Machine Learning -- A Taxonomy and Survey of Integrating Knowledge into Learning Systems
1 Introduction
---------------
Machine learning has shown great success in building models for pattern recognition in domains ranging from computer vision [[1](#bib.bib1)] over speech recognition [[2](#bib.bib2)] and t... |
c9432e54-a1ee-45a2-beaf-da13311e8580 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the Main/Discussion distinction, and what should it be?
Near the beginning of this year Wei Dai asked why certain people don't post to LessWrong more often, and Yvain replied that:
> Less Wrong requires no politics / minimal humor / definitely unambiguously rationality-relevant / careful referencing / airtigh... |
5d1d7754-d854-44ec-b4ec-cb2af7f5a867 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Identifiability Problem for Superrational Decision Theories
Superrationality, and generalizations of it, must treat options differently depending on how they're named.
Consider the penny correlation game: Both players decide independently on either head or tails. Then if they decided on the same thing, they each get ... |
94150b5d-de4e-44ae-8289-78f961d2d684 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Every "best paper" from Computer Science conferences since 1996 [link]
http://jeffhuang.com/best_paper_awards.html
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2051437 |
4cc02e5d-8c6b-4935-b83d-3d0b1e4b8d62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metauncertainty
Response to: When (Not) To Use Probabilities
“It appears to be a quite general principle that, whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought.” —E. T. Jaynes
The uncertainty due to vague (non math) la... |
1c42b8f6-2dd8-423f-8082-7d9d72286055 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Comes After Epistemic Spot Checks?
When I read a non-fiction book, I want to know if it’s correct before I commit anything it says to memory. But if I already knew the truth status of all of its claims, I wouldn’t need to read it. Epistemic Spot Checks are an attempt to square that circle by sampling a book’s cla... |
191cf186-3635-4311-840d-3961d385a5b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Forecasting using incomplete models
1 Introduction
---------------
Forecasting future observations based on past observations is one of the fundamental problems in machine learning, and more broadly is one of the fundamental components of rational reasoning in general. This problem received much attention, using di... |
916fbad2-0f78-4cfe-993e-2f361071ba96 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Modeling the impact of AI safety field-building programs
Summary
=======
AI safety field-building is a large space, with many possible programs. The [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/) (CAIS) has commissioned cost-effectiveness models to support decisions regarding how to prioritize between these programs. D... |
5cbcc48c-ab47-41cd-8dd0-24842c97252c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unnatural Categories
Followup to: Disguised Queries, Superexponential Conceptspace
If a tree falls in the forest, and no one hears it, does it make a sound?
"Tell me why you want to know," says the rationalist, "and I'll tell you the answer." If you want to know whether your seismograph, located nearby, will regis... |
74b47a22-099a-47ad-aaae-d31f82b80edb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Paper] Simulation of a complete cell
"A Whole-Cell Computational Model Predicts Phenotype from Genotype" by Jonathan Karr et al.
This paper appeared a few days ago in Cell, and describes a computational simulation of the bacterium Mycoplasma genitalium, conducted at this lab. The paper is behind a paywall, but is bl... |
ddaff4a6-3dd0-405b-91b6-1fe24d036b13 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post276
(thanks to Alex Mallen, Cody Rushing, Zach Stein-Perlman, Hoagy Cunningham, Vlad Mikulik, and Fabien Roger for comments) Sometimes I hear people argue against AI control as follows: if your control measures rely on getting good judgments from "trusted" AI models, you're doomed because AI models aren't adve... |
5d31da87-32cf-4b59-8ed1-1ff92fd1dd47 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | The future of digitalization (Gerhard Fischer) - 1st AiTech Symposium
so I think they're organizers for
inviting me and so is this is the title
of my talk and as Lisa mentioned already
one of my of the interest for me has
been design trade-offs and understanding
what that means and so I want to start
with sort of this... |
608e55f7-5d97-42b6-b759-872f99e0bb0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - September 2016
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - September 2016
WHEN: 04 September 2016 04:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 10 Shepherd Street, Chippendale
From 4 - 6 we'll be holding our normal rationality dojo at Humanist house. Afterwards there'll be an inform... |
b7f637d8-651a-411c-aa37-452557ec7f69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Munich April Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Munich April Meetup
WHEN: 18 April 2015 03:00:03PM (+0200)
WHERE: Café Puck, Türkenstraße 33, Munich
It's time for another meetup! If you are new, please do come and say hi.
Topics: Let's develop and play a prediction game, taking some inspirations f... |
6182a535-354b-44e2-894c-bb1a95b36a1b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Brain-Computer Interfaces and AI Alignment
*cross-posted from [niplav.github.io](https://niplav.github.io)*
>
> I discuss arguments for and against the usefulness of brain-computer
> interfaces in relation to AI alignment, and conclude that the path to
> AI going well using brain-computer interfaces hasn't been ex... |
6f65b9f7-8e77-4125-8c94-58c9904ae850 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts on AI Safety Camp
**I**
Early this year I interviewed a sample of AISC participants and mentors, and spent some time thinking about the problems the AI safety research community is facing, and have changed my mind about some things.
[AI Safety Camp](https://aisafety.camp/) is a program that brings together ... |
4afced18-912d-4d97-8fba-723f9dcc7ab1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has anyone thought about how to proceed now that AI notkilleveryoneism is becoming more relevant/is approaching the Overton window?
I figure that this would be a pretty important question since getting governments on board, and getting people to coordinate in general, could buy us a lot of time, but I haven't seen any... |
ba635d9b-f02f-4195-b8a1-cf81150aae72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Change A View: An interesting online community
I've recently stumbled across the platform Change A View, which is a subreddit that forked/graduated to its own website that is centered around the idea of people creating posts in which they ask to have their mind changed. This tends to create a frame that enables much m... |
bd0b3832-6a2a-47e9-90c5-e933f6b1ad5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sleeping Beauty: an Accuracy-based Approach
This post does not propose a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem, but presents arguments based on accuracy for thirders, halfers and double-halfers. A more detailed draft paper can be found here.
Summary
Accuracy-based arguments claim that one should plan to adopt post... |
20819746-b964-49ad-8c1b-d917fb448cf9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Fake Norms, or "Truth" vs. Truth
Today's post, Fake Norms, or "Truth" vs. Truth was originally published on 22 July 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Our society has a moral norm for applauding "truth", but actual truths get much less applause (this is a bad thing).
Discuss the post here (r... |
c6860eb8-0530-4b78-9401-0f8a8e00a9e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ablations for “Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming”
We recently published our paper “Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming”. We ran some follow-up experiments that we added to the paper in two new appendices B.5 and B.6. We summarize these follow-up experiments in this post. This post assum... |
b4a555df-5d78-4570-b5f2-1f57e5cdc661 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making a New Table Leaf
We got our dining room table used, and it didn't come with any leaves. I made one out of plywood when we first got it, and it's been pretty helpful over the past ~7y:
With the leaf we can comfortably fit eight: three on the long sides and one on the short. If we have more people two on the s... |
9e9e22a5-44b3-483a-8dad-987630f3e774 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Charbel-Raphaël and Lucius discuss Interpretability
The following is a transcript of a public discussion between [Charbel-Raphaël Segerie](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/charbel-raphael) and [Lucius Bushnaq](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/lblack) that took place on 23 September during [LessWrong Community Weekend 20... |
09c33d89-51cf-483f-9630-623be740d71a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2023-05-16
Opportunities
* Animator needed for a molecular biology illustration project (via @kanzure)
* Heidi Williams seeking a biotech VC co-author on improving university tech transfer
Announcements
* Foresight Vision Weekend 2023 (via @foresightinst). I’ll be speaking!
* Helion ha... |
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