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c7b04865-9923-4839-83ef-c4d00e344eee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nonmagical Powers
A couple of years ago my workplace was running one of those guess-the-number-of-jellybeans-in-the-jar competitions. I don't even like jellybeans all that much, but nonetheless, I held aloft my nonmagic calculator and said "by the power of Galton!" Taking the mean of all the previous guesses, I put th... |
20f0b846-6a86-4abe-9813-f094ea6f89df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Divergence causes isolated demands for rigor
Divergence causes isolated demands for rigor
If you question enough things you can poke whole in any theory, argument, statement, or any other information-transmitting abstraction.
The fully-fledged argument for this is made fairly well in Beware isolated demands for rigor... |
956f03f6-4ccd-4a92-91c9-94f9865fb2c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alternative to Bayesian Score
I am starting to wonder whether or not Bayes Score is what I want to maximize for my epistemic rationality. I started thinking about by trying to design a board game to teach calibration of probabilities, so I will use that as my example:
I wanted a scoring mechanism which motivates hone... |
b338716e-c74b-43dc-8d1e-db0506d43f13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Streamlining my voice note process
Why voice notes?
On a functional level it's the fastest & the most convenient input method when you're not in front of the proper keyboard. Which even for me constitutes a big chunk of my life 🙃.
Taking a voice note allows me to quickly close an open loop of a stray though or a new... |
13d36289-16d3-4988-8fe1-532de25fda58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Specification gaming: the flip side of AI ingenuity
(Originally posted to the Deepmind Blog)
Specification gaming is a behaviour that satisfies the literal specification of an objective without achieving the intended outcome. We have all had experiences with specification gaming, even if not by this name. Readers may... |
cb7b6d44-5ff6-4e97-bc67-eaf2e37751a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on an Experiment with Markets
Jeffrey Heninger, 22 November 2022
AI Impacts is a research group with seven employees. From Oct 31 – Nov 3, we had a work retreat. We decided to try using Manifold Markets to help us plan social events in the evenings. Here are some notes from this experiment.
Structure of the E... |
0f752a30-8bc3-4dac-8183-ffa8922822c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Singularity Institute has started publishing monthly progress reports
If anyone is curious what's going on at SI, it seems as though they've started publishing monthly progress reports on their blog. The latest was published less than a week ago for the month of February:
http://singinst.org/blog/
Thought it mig... |
bc72dded-bda2-49e8-8d4f-2f7a31486ea0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Release of UN's draft related to the governance of AI (a summary of the Simon Institute's response)
I just spent a couple of hours trying to understand the UN’s role in the governance of AI. The most important effort seems to be the Global Digital Compact (GDC). An initiative for member states to “outline shared princ... |
43f31cbe-e245-4c90-8e6a-fb7e41f93641 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: The Long Arc of Moral Progress (NOT NORMAL PLACE/TIME)
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: The Long Arc of Moral Progress (NOT NORMAL PLACE/TIME)
WHEN: 14 April 2015 07:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: SFJAZZ Center 201 Franklin St, San Francisco, CA 94102
Note that this i... |
a9725818-3f18-4882-ac37-02fb6dbe8b55 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI Safety Investing | Luke Nosek, Gigafund
um from now on the sessions on recording
and with the potential option to publish
that doesn't mean that it will be
published but we'll be reviewing and the
option of that because I think that you
know the topic that we were going to be
tackling today is definitely I think of... |
3356ccd6-9440-451d-9e8f-f8d3ef985419 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Challenge: change someone's mind
Pick one (or several) of the following. I used specific examples, therefore anything similar still counts.
1. You have a friendly new acquaintance who is pretty much an average person. He is a theist and doesn't believe Evolution, you have already had a polite debate about that. Convi... |
dbfc04d3-9d94-4d9c-b069-215fb95fffe8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Geometry of Feelings and Nonsense in Large Language Models
This post has some ablation results around the thesis of the ICML 2024 Mech. Interp. workshop 1st prize winning paper: The Geometry of Categorical and Hierarchical Concepts in Large Language Models The main takeaway is that the orthogonality they observe i... |
4469fc41-5a11-408c-a007-947a71abc0af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2013 June-August Life Hacks Thread
Why don't we have Life Hack thread like we do have Media Threads and Rationality Quote Threads?
Well, now we do.
I'm copying in the comments some hacks previously written about by others for your convenience, also check out the Munchkin post if you haven't, there are many interest... |
298b70e6-6ad6-4eba-94f3-04a00427927a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Visible loss landscape basins don't correspond to distinct algorithms
*Thanks to Justis, Arthur Conmy, Neel Nanda, Joseph Miller, and Tilman Räuker for their feedback on a draft.*
I feel like many people haven't noticed an important result of [mechanistic interpretability analysis of grokking](https://www.lesswrong.c... |
d9c6886c-99dd-4760-83af-88f2c8443b98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Drivers of large language model diffusion: incremental research, publicity, and cascades
This post is one part of the sequence Understanding the diffusion of large language models. As context for this post, I strongly recommend reading at least the 5-minute summary of the sequence.
Key takeaways
1. Up until the re... |
7a341bf0-3084-426a-96cf-39d54c8502ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What success looks like
TL;DR: We wrote a post on possible success stories of a transition to TAI to better understand which factors causally reduce the risk of AI risk. Furthermore, we separately explain these catalysts for success in more detail and this post can thus be thought of as a high-level overview of differ... |
bac35be2-fdc0-429d-bd3f-0e7a3d166c6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Data Analysis of LW: Activity Levels + Age Distribution of User Accounts
Epistemic: I rarely trust other people’s data analysis, I only half trust my own. Right now, analytics is only getting a slice of my attention and this work is not as thorough as I’d like, but I think the broad strokes picture is correct. I have ... |
c3edcfc1-f7b9-400b-862b-c4d927fb08d9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Autonomous AGI
An autonomous or self-directed [advanced agent](https://arbital.com/p/2c), a machine intelligence which acts in the real world in pursuit of its preferences without further user intervention or steering. In [Bostrom](https://arbital.com/p/18k)'s [typology](https://arbital.com/p/1g0) of [advanced agents... |
b9fb7548-7c4c-4da1-91ac-e2517420609a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaethics: Where I'm Headed
In an earlier post, I explained that Pluralistic Moral Reductionism finished my application of the basic lessons of the first four sequences to moral philosophy. I also explained that my next task was to fill in some inferential distances by summarizing lots more cognitive science for Less... |
e3f7a06f-bdbc-4bc6-b8d6-9172614d9198 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong downtime 2012-03-26, and site speed
Our investigation into last week's LW downtime is complete: here (Google Docs).
Executive summary:
We failed to update our AWS configuration after changes at Amazon, which caused a cycle of servers being spawned then killed before they could properly boot. Our automated ... |
de418e93-aefa-44ab-bfc5-b94af05e0742 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes - August 2009
A monthly thread for posting any interesting rationality-related quotes you've seen recently on the Internet, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages.
* Please post all quotes separately (so that they can be voted up/down separately) unless they are strongly related/ordered.
* Do ... |
a8dcde2a-6ea4-48f9-b51c-fbf73d765d22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A bet for Samo Burja
I'm listening to Samo Burja talk on the Cognitive Revolution podcast with Nathan Labenz. Samo said that he would bet that AGI is coming perhaps in the next 20-50 years, but not in the next 5.
I will take that bet. I can't afford to make an impressively large bet because my counterfactual income i... |
34beb483-c60d-4c64-b291-ed7408d7975e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Limiting Causality by Complexity Class
The standard account of causality depends on the idea of intervention: The question of what follows if X not just naturally occurs, but we bring it about artificially independently of its usual causes. This doesn't go well with embedded agency. If the agent is part of the world,... |
cd2a260b-5956-47da-83af-bf70c859a141 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The problem/solution matrix: Calculating the probability of AI safety "on the back of an envelope"
>
> If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics
>
>
>
-- [Scott Alexander](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Tw5RqnEzqEtaoEkq/if-it-s-worth-doing-it-s-worth-doing-with-made-up-statistics)
My earl... |
a9137259-930b-4fcd-b17a-46ca8833214e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Situational Awareness Summarized - Part 2
This is the second post in the Situational Awareness Summarized sequence. Collectively, these posts represent my attempt to condense Leopold Aschenbrenner's recent report, Situational Awareness, into something more digestible.
Part II: Zoom to Foom
This section outlines how... |
470ab004-7286-4ae1-b904-4e74b1d5df84 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Doomsday argument in anthropic decision theory
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: n... |
e320c53c-da1b-4094-8214-cfbdfa4458a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explanations of deontological responses to moral dilemmas
|
5c6f8684-a42d-477d-9532-2aa03c7a4bbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Dwarkesh’s Podcast with OpenAI’s John Schulman
Dwarkesh Patel recorded a Podcast with John Schulman, cofounder of OpenAI and at the time their head of current model post-training. Transcript here. John’s job at the time was to make the current AIs do what OpenAI wanted them to do. That is an important task, but one... |
1ff88789-7060-4730-b424-9ec248b2dbb6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning Curve Theory
1 Introduction
---------------
Power laws in large-scale machine learning.
The ‘mantra’ of modern machine learning is ‘bigger is better’.
The larger and deeper Neural Networks (NNs) are, the more data they are fed, the longer they are trained,
the better they perform.
Apart from the problem of... |
eebf6176-7f1f-448c-bb92-36d591748d08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are your recommendations for technical AI alignment podcasts?
|
6e7376f2-818c-4361-892b-fc3aea0a2c28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Balsa Update and General Thank You
Wow, what a year it has been. Things keep getting crazier.
Thank you for taking this journey with me. I hope I have helped you keep pace, and that you have been able to discern for yourself the parts of this avalanche of words and events that were helpful. I hope to have helped thin... |
3b794a48-b385-4e8f-8140-c582216f87a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Iceland's COVID-19 random sampling results: C19 similar to Influenza
Update 11/09/2021: Over a year later, Iceland now reports 34 total deaths / 14757 total infections for a naive IFR of 0.23%, or a least 50% higher than the mean of this old simple estimate, and roughly 2x seasonal flu.
EDIT: updated with wider estim... |
a8b268c8-805d-4a7c-b8e4-d5e6ef3d72e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Parable of the Dagger
Today's post, The Parable of the Dagger was originally published on 01 February 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A parable adapted from Raymond Smullyan, showing a failure of logic to reach a desired goal.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the ... |
c135d79f-47e2-433a-9a37-a4781abe2edc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Actionable-guidance and roadmap recommendations for the NIST AI Risk Management Framework
*Updated 13 September 2022 with a link to our arXiv paper and corrections to out-of-date items*
This is a linkpost to our working paper “Towards AI Standards Addressing AI Catastrophic Risks: Actionable-Guidance and Roadmap Reco... |
82d58bbf-da7b-448f-a0bf-1b6334477b2c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Relevance of 'Harmful Intelligence' Data in Training Datasets (WebText vs. Pile)
*I believe the ideas in this post, though preliminary, will benefit many, especially those tackling the challenging aspects of the alignment problem. I think I've found an analogy that the alignment community should explore further.*
... |
793657f5-2fae-442a-b278-e5378c0f67bf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Feature Selection
You wake up. You don't know where you are. You don't remember anything.
Someone is broadcasting data at your first input stream. You don't know why. It tickles.
You look at your first input stream. It's a sequence of 671,187 eight-bit unsigned integers.
```
0, 8, 9, 4, 7, 7, 9, 5, 4, 5, 6, 1, ... |
96b89cb9-3ba3-452b-988f-aeb17120702c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hyperpalatable Food Hypothesis: A LessWrong Study?
In Eliezer Yudkowsky's recent post he discussed SlimeMoldTimeMold’s research into possible causes of obesity, and how he thinks SMTM’s theories are more convincing than the Hyperpalatable Food Hypothesis (HFH). SlimeMoldTimeMold theorizes that some kind of contaminati... |
e3395a34-08ca-429e-b901-506284d08b89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Montreal Meetup - Bayes' Theorem
Discussion article for the meetup : Montreal Meetup - Bayes' Theorem
WHEN: 25 March 2013 06:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 655 Ave. Du President-Kennedy, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
The next weekly meetup is going to be another look at Bayes' theorem, given by our resident statisticia... |
bf4638b7-c5d0-4249-b0b5-3c6df3b387af | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | What's Up With Bard? 9 Examples + 6 Reasons Google Fell Behind [ft. Muse, Med-PaLM 2 and more]
this video was supposed to be about the
nine best prompts that you could use
with Google's newly released Bard model
it's just
like problem every time I tried one of
these epic ideas gpt4 did it better I
really wanted to... |
76db8c0e-395a-4f9a-b634-bc2cc3665a0e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Informatica: Special Issue on Superintelligence
A special issue on Superintelligence is coming up at the journal [Informatica](http://www.informatica.si/index.php/informatica/pages/view/csi3). The call for proposals is given below. We would welcome submissions from a range of perspectives, including philosophical and ... |
dfaa4f41-8fd3-4306-b957-f0d2321215b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Best Lecture Series on Every Subject
Previously on LessWrong:
* The Best Textbooks on Every Subject
* The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject
Having seen the popularity of those previous initiatives, I thought it would be valuable to have a similar collection of lecture series. Many universities have ... |
94b96712-138a-4022-94cf-8abe26d92c71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Bullwhip Effect
Background
In the 1990s, when Procter & Gamble was examining the supply chain order patterns for one of its best-selling products, Pampers diapers, they discovered an interesting phenomenon. As they expected, the sales at its retail stores fluctuated moderately. However, as they moved further up in... |
cbddc612-c980-4661-a28f-5fc966fcfd57 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Insight-based AI timelines model
Note: the demos on this page will not work with javascript disabled.
For various “percentages of the way” done AI research could be, in terms of percentage of the necessary insights discovered, what is the probability that AI research is not yet that percentage done?
100... |
2de1ecf5-4d2a-4ebe-ad4d-f3e46762bcd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2 innovative life extension approaches using cryonics technology
x-post on LessDead
Edit: This was posted on April's fool :) (note: for some timezones, this was posted on April 2nd; oops) While the core ideas are not entirely unfounded, they were presented as stronger than they really are.
* While it's true that we... |
d2653e0c-f525-4b50-ac64-e489c9f67f27 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A Visualization of Nick Bostrom’s Superintelligence
Through a series of diagrams, this article will walk through key concepts in Nick Bostrom’s Superintelligence. The book is full of heavy content, and though well written, its scope and depth can make it difficult to grasp the concepts and mentally hold them together.... |
6ca66d33-4d59-41ec-9706-5157032dfacf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Process Orientation
There's a certain type of workplace where the only thing that matters is that you, as an individual, produce results that are valuable to the company. Netflix is famously like this (or claims to be); here's a quote from their culture page:
> Succeeding on a dream team is about being effective, not... |
4d81b039-b73d-43e6-a45e-37474208f82e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RSS Troubles
Some stuff that is currently broken about handling RSS feeds:
* rss link builders on the front page create invalid urls
* all feeds except the one with all posts are unusable in practice, because of sth like the low end of the range of posts that is available in them sometimes goes back in time, which ... |
12c5c5ac-bd03-4ec9-bb3c-cdbff3680aca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Bias] Restricting freedom is more harmful than it seems
* We do not censor other people more conventional-minded than ourselves. We only censor other people more-independent-minded than ourselves. Conventional-minded people censor independent-minded people. Independent-minded people do not censor conventional-minded... |
cb8ead59-8ef1-47e6-a7cb-8e6215b07877 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: Cuisine and Empire
People began cooking our food maybe two million years ago and have not stopped since. Cooking is almost a cultural universal. Bits of raw fruit or leaves or flesh are a rare occasional treat or garnish – we prefer our meals transformed. There are other millennia-old procedures we do to ... |
fee98caa-fd95-4299-8c80-08384dc64057 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mapping the semantic void III: Exploring neighbourhoods
TL;DR: The original "semantic void" post documented a phenomenon tentatively described as a "stratified ontology" associated with a set of concentric hyperspherical shells in GPT-J embedding space. This post will consider the same phenomenon primarily via angula... |
78837526-2a3f-4b4a-963c-86b5fb62077c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposure.
1 Introduction
---------------
Machine Learning systems in deployment often encounter data that is unlike the model’s training data. This can occur in discovering novel astronomical phenomena, finding unknown diseases, or detecting sensor failure. In these situations, m... |
766dcfee-9b10-43e7-9e5b-1dc6852b40a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anyone recommend a video course on the theory of computation?
Hey all,
I'm noticing that I want to know more about the basics of theoretical computer science, subjects like the theory of computation.
This is a leisure activity for me (at least for the time being), as opposed to something that I'm going to put substa... |
12ea7128-8196-46f9-a2de-1f2f44b75265 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should AI writers be prohibited in education?
Crossposted from the EA Forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yNitwYkHP6DtkkSrG/should-ai-writers-be-prohibited-in-education
Note: this is an attempt to engage with and interpret legislation on the usage of AI. I don't have a strong opinion on this yet and ... |
aebd1069-6494-4a06-9d7c-7a629565f925 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Updates on FLI's Value Aligment Map?
Around January 2021, I came across the Future of Life Institute's Value Alignment Map, and found it to be a useful resource for getting a sense of the different alignment topics. I was going through it again today, and recalled that I have not seen many mentions of this map in the ... |
4a2bf1fb-f448-44a8-a88f-3f8f1be6b37d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Machine-Readable Prevalence Estimates
In Estimating Norovirus Prevalence I wrote up an estimate for how many people currently had Norovirus at various times in the past, describing some of my work on the P2RA project at the NAO. That post is prose, though, with inline calculations, and this has a few drawbacks:
* ... |
c86f00e2-186a-4700-9971-b7760114a6e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to the Haskell Jungle
In my first year of engineering school (basically last year of undergraduate school in France), I became a fixture of the computer programming club. It was a weird nerd den, but there was always something to learn there. And not too late after I started skipping classes, a friend there ta... |
f9671314-4d98-45ef-a452-15bc424beb22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [MORESAFE] Prevention of the global catastrophe and human values
The chanses of prevention of the global catastrophe are growing if humans have the goal of it. This is semi-trivial conclusion. But the main question is who should have such goal?
Of course, if we have global government, its main goal should be preventi... |
79fe1604-6714-4e72-b49d-6d8d2df10254 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Champaign, IL meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Champaign, IL meetup
WHEN: 06 November 2012 09:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Paradiso Cafe, Nevada Street, Champaign, IL
Hi all, We're meeting at Paradiso Cafe at 8pm. I'll try to have a little sign. We'd like to talk about 1) How to get the word out and ex... |
800e0740-688b-4d29-a4ee-5b376889d882 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1680
Some research outputs I’d love to see, focused on exploring, clarifying and formalizing important alignment concepts. I expect that most of these will be pretty time-consuming, but happy to discuss for people who want to try: A paper which does for deceptive alignment what the goal misgeneralization paper... |
1e6f0fda-a218-4d1b-b349-04bdbdb3b061 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can Cognito Mentoring do the most good?
In late December 2013, I announced that Vipul Naik and I had launched Cognito Mentoring, an advising service for intellectually curious young people.
Vipul Naik and I are aspiring effective altruists, and we started Cognito with a view toward doing the most good. We've lear... |
d11e1e61-c09b-4eeb-a56b-87e1a9e39c8b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Funding cannibalism motivates concern for overheads
Summary: Overhead expenses' (CEO salary, percentage spent on fundraising) are often deemed a poor measure of charity effectiveness by Effective Altruists, and so they disprefer means of charity evaluation which rely on these. However, 'funding cannibalism' suggests t... |
d64698f7-1a73-4215-9b44-1f546a8231ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Habits
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Habits
WHEN: 07 September 2014 04:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Humanist House, 10 Shepherd St Chippendale
This time around we will be looking at how to establish or replace habits. I personally think the ability to est... |
1f9f2c8a-77eb-45fb-9981-29fa16f05f2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Semi-conductor/AI Stock Discussion.
I've been writing about investing and the EMH [1] on lesswrong/rat-discord/ea-facebook/etc. I made the first 'buy solana' post on the EA investing group when it was under 2 dollars in late 2020 (it peaked at 260 in 2021). Despite crypto crashing and FTX stealing user deposits I got ... |
bb5e26d0-ae6d-4766-a932-0b1455673494 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consider attending the AI Security Forum '24, a 1-day pre-DEFCON event
Jeffrey Ladish, Caleb Parikh, and I are running the AI security forum, a 1-day event on Thursday, August 8th '24 in Las Vegas, the day before DEFCON. This is a continuation of last year's X-infosec Forum.
We thought that many of you reading this ... |
b292d6de-4723-4c58-8289-452d548ee33c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #10: September 2023
It’s that time again. Here’s all the news and items of interest that isn’t something else.
Things that didn’t make it in to try and stand them on their own include whether America or France has better food and various claims related to Y-Combinator, in addition to the usual additio... |
1becff80-9fba-4486-9deb-406f423acf24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Jul. 03 - Jul. 09, 2017
IF IT'S WORTH SAYING, BUT NOT WORTH ITS OWN POST, THEN IT GOES HERE.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
10aabe18-e87c-4025-9ea9-c7f1b9d66046 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Marketplace for AI Models
1. Introduction
----------------
Artificial intelligence (AI) is predicted to have a major societal impact over the coming decades. Specifically, when widely diffused, AI models have the potential to solve many ubiquitous problems in domains ranging from healthcare to transportation. For e... |
566e5ead-4442-4278-85be-19ad18ce64d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Mundane Magic
Today's post, Mundane Magic was originally published on 31 October 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A list of abilities that would be amazing if they were magic, or if only a few people had them.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This ... |
a92eca97-b9e6-48c8-9da1-8aa40d67d4f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Set, Game, Match
I am making an investigation of game theory, and wanted to get my intuitions about this down; this is a better location than most for the job.
Sets of Games
The objects which comprise a game are players, moves, and payoffs. A game is a set which contains the specified objects. Combinatorial games ... |
a528a709-ee3c-4012-a8c3-dbac58eabd2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I quit effective altruism, and why Timothy Telleen-Lawton is staying (for now)
~5 months I formally quit EA (formally here means “I made an announcement on Facebook”). My friend Timothy was very curious as to why; I felt my reasons applied to him as well. This disagreement eventually led to a podcast episode, wher... |
f3776027-92ee-46ba-b12c-8949d89e1929 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Which is more important for reducing s-risks, researching on AI sentience or animal welfare?
Not every people in Effective Altruism put wildlife welfare in the top cause area. Instead, a lot of people concerns on AI safety more.I think people here maybe have arguments upon this. If we don't consider human extinction r... |
6adac93b-0d78-43f9-9e63-9da6330643e3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What are the potential benefits of AI as it grows increasingly sophisticated?
We expect AI to enable many developments[^kix.qxm0ijn59igj] that could be terrifically beneficial if managed with enough foresight and care. The expected benefits include:
- The automation of menial tasks and an explosion in production, whi... |
4ea0e9d0-ee1b-47ca-8871-eef6ee280a58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Defense of Naive Metaethics
I aim to make several arguments in the post that we can make statements about what should be done and what should not be done that cannot be reduced, by definition, to statements about the physical world.
A Naive Argument
Lukeprog says this in one of his posts:
> If someone makes a cla... |
72fb3451-dce1-41f2-90c1-9afa6258dbac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Freudianism among the 17th century Wendat
I’m close to finishing David Graeber & David Wengrow’s The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity. The most interesting thing I’ve found in it so far is a quote from The Jesuit Relations, a series of field reports from missionaries in North America published in the 17th... |
3179e597-62c7-4abc-b635-e7044400a0b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A bill to prevent AI from hiring people instead of human enployers in NY
It's not a post, it's a proposed bill for the state of New York, which, in summary, (Please note that I didn't read the whole thing, as I feel I would give up halfway through. The summary provided comes from GPT-3.5)
The proposed law prohibits e... |
11b81c19-5238-438a-a031-015ec5c3f131 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How does a company like Instadeep fit into the current AI landscape?
I recently read this summary of BioNTech's $700M acquisition of InstaDeep, a "Tunisian-bred, London-based AI startup."
<https://www.realisticoptimist.io/p/what-does-instadeeps-exit-actually>
Is InstaDeep in the same lane as a company like OpenAI? O... |
41ec4deb-38a8-436d-afd7-214b271d25a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Los Angeles: Growth Mindset
Discussion article for the meetup : Los Angeles: Growth Mindset
WHEN: 20 May 2015 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 11066 Santa Monica blvd, LA, CA
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. We will be in the back room if possible.
Parking is free in the lot out front or on the street near... |
9c021a87-1a15-42af-ae80-2a7b88724ca8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Algorithmic formalization of FDT?
I occasionally see a question like "what would FDT recommend in ....?" and I am puzzled that there is no formal algorithm to answer it. Instead humans ask other humans, and the answers are often different and subject to interpretation. This is rather disconcerting. For comparison, you... |
259fcebd-87bc-4020-acfd-f160f4514b85 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Are you really in a race? The Cautionary Tales of Szilárd and Ellsberg
*OR The Tragedy of the Einstein Letter and the Gaither Report; Cautionary Lessons from the Manhattan Project and the ‘Missile Gap’; Beware Assuming You’re in an AI Race; The illusory Atomic Gap, the illusory Missile Gap and the AGI Gap*
Summary
==... |
58e28caf-8dd4-47ba-97a3-52115b975262 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Assigning probabilities to metaphysical ideas
Take all the metaphysical models of the universe that any human ever considers.
Say there are n number of mutually-incompatible ones. I don't have a good definition of this, so our estimates will vary by orders of magnitude.
Start with 1:1 odds, or a 50% chance that one... |
06a6f9c0-8736-4f4e-bfbb-43e7d122f408 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI alignment via civilizational cognitive updates
(This started as a reply to @Tamsin Leake 's reply in my post about why cyborgism maybe should be open. This post does not require you to read our interaction, though it lead to this, and I'm very grateful for Tamsin's reply.)
In general, this is a counterargument aga... |
f7777feb-20f3-49a2-945e-fa9611558c0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Companies' safety plans neglect risks from scheming AI
Without countermeasures, a scheming AI could escape.
A safety case (for deployment) is an argument that it is safe to deploy a particular AI system in a particular way.[1] For any existing LM-based system, the developer can make a great safety case by demonst... |
e9f4e388-3960-4fa1-9fd8-829d83f0855b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Reflective oracles and the procrastination paradox
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: n... |
a118ea03-9a9a-4652-b6c6-4cc55adb578d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | From Laplace to BIC
The previous post outlined Laplace approximation, one of the most common tools used to approximate hairy probability integrals. In this post, we'll use Laplace approximation to derive the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), a popular complexity penalty method for comparing models with more free p... |
a7510b94-79bf-4261-990f-4df9b26b116e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Optimal Polynomial-Time Estimators: A Bayesian Notion of Approximation Algorithm
0 Introduction
---------------
###
0.1 Motivation
Imagine you are strolling in the city with a friend when a car passes by with the license plate number “7614829”. Your friend proposes a wager, claiming that the number is composite... |
49ca2c24-3e47-4fff-be53-d943c76bd45e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Letter to His Highness Louis XV, the King of France
[A parable, of a sort.]
Your Highness,
It is with no small sense of urgency that I write these words, with the hope that they will be received by your magnanimous spirit with grace. This letter I write not in the spirit of criticism which certain upstarts have ma... |
c6a7fda6-10fa-4a5a-950b-a4be3d3daa4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anyone else reading "Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach"?
I'm almost done with the third chapter of AIMA by Russell and Norvig. Is anyone else reading it? It'd be nice to have someone to talk the concepts over with, and perhaps share Anki-card-creation duties. |
a1ca3ffc-9994-4c11-bb57-ad2a7d760fb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On OpenAI’s Safety and Alignment Philosophy
OpenAI’s recent transparency on safety and alignment strategies has been extremely helpful and refreshing.
Their Model Spec 2.0 laid out how they want their models to behave. I offered a detailed critique of it, with my biggest criticisms focused on long term implications. ... |
694d1dda-f6d6-47bd-ba79-0ae1b7fee752 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wholesome Culture
This is the third of a collection of three essays, ‘On Wholesomeness’.
Culture-consequentialism
What culture, if adopted, leads to the best consequences? This "culture-consequentialist" lens[1], applied to the idea of how cultures relate to wholesomeness, is the focus of this essay. The previous es... |
1d072d74-4bba-4e0e-a146-7dc2572e10cf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Why Release a Large Language Model?
Here at EleutherAI, we are probably most well known for our [ongoing project to produce a GPT-3-like very large language model and release it as open source](https://www.eleuther.ai/projects/gpt-neox/). Reasonable safety concerns about this project have been raised many times. We ... |
d13eae88-ff55-4de0-aec7-fc7ddf3541c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A study on cults and non-cults - answer questions about a group and get a cult score
Hi all! We're running a study examining the differences between cults and non-cults. It would be great if you'd take part! It involves answering a bunch of questions about a group/community/org you are in or used to be in.
In the end... |
0031c4f8-74f8-49d7-b6c7-2efc8ebef291 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should criminals be denied cryonics?
If someone is sentenced to life in prison or the death penalty, should they also be prohibited from signing up for cryonics? Specifically, I'm referring to people like these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_death_row_inmates
I am not talking about providing it f... |
c9f32ff4-c6dd-4499-94bf-ea4c6ecae339 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, July 24 - July 30, 2017
IF IT'S WORTH SAYING, BUT NOT WORTH ITS OWN POST, THEN IT GOES HERE.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
ed9a28bd-559c-442d-8aae-b3627676a219 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mask and Respirator Intelligibility Comparison
One of the downsides of wearing a mask or respirator is that it makes it hard for people to understand you. That there's stuff getting in the way of free air movement is kind of the point, but ideally it would be possible to let vibration through without net air movement.... |
0b3d8a39-0157-43ab-baa3-ef5a2ba908fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | New book from leading neuroscientist in support of cryonics and mind uploading
[Sebastian Seung](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastian_Seung)'s new book *[Connectome: How the Brain's Wiring Makes Us Who We Are](http://www.amazon.com/Connectome-How-Brains-Wiring-Makes/dp/0547508182/)* is very well-written, and aimed a... |
aa11f368-c66a-4a03-9d7e-3d8112c23bd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Parameters of Privacy
In my last post, I argued that people should probably have more meta-discussions about privacy (rather than simply assuming everyone was on the same page about how seriously to take confidentiality)
What might that conversation entail?
First, it's worth first checking "Is this actually all that... |
0b9063d2-55c5-4abe-b3eb-932391341b06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument
A major cryptocurrency can now be applied as an income generating asset.
If you don’t keep up with cryptocurrency news, you probably don’t know that today marks the beginning of one of the most important updates in one of the largest cryptocurrencies out there.
Ethere... |
87a0a12b-97e6-4451-8184-766d801351b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | WFW?: Opportunity and Theory of Impact
Please see [my post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ppq4dZGjNHtwNd6vm/announcing-what-future-world-growing-the-ai-governance) announcing the launch of [What Future World?](https://www.whatfuture.world) for context. This article is cross-posted from the What Future Worl... |
3cf53818-c732-4224-b18e-bbd7c5810833 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on August 28th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Rochester LessWrong and Transhumanists: 12 September 2015 01:00PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
... |
88986b64-e1bd-4b67-8320-b71bcf3d1dfa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DeepMind article: AI Safety Gridworlds
DeepMind authors present a set of toy environments that highlight various AI safety desiderata. Each is a 10x10 grid in which an agent completes a task by walking around obstacles, touching switches, etc. Some of the tests have a reward function and a hidden 'better-specified' re... |
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