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0910b8ee-e6fa-4549-bf45-ff46f0985760 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One Night in Delphi
A rationality exercise.
Mikhail is a mathematician working on a particular conjecture. His goal is to prove it if true or find a counterexample if false. After thoroughly reviewing the evidence, he estimates — fairly and with well-calibrated confidence — that there's a 75% chance the conjecture... |
b231e6cd-7f09-4eab-a536-fa5eb85e2540 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
WHEN: 21 November 2015 04:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Kaisermühlenstraße 24, Vienna
Event on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/events/550127651805751/ You need to be part of this group to see it: https://www.facebook.com/gr... |
d51b56c4-ec2d-4ce6-ae97-4d1798a22c99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DeepSeek Made it Even Harder for US AI Companies to Ever Reach Profitability
This is the full text of a post from "The Obsolete Newsletter," a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Obs... |
01912903-08e4-4589-8f89-185da284248b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New positions and recent hires at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (Cambridge, UK)
[Cross-posted from EA Forum. Summary: Four new postdoc positions at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk: Evaluation of extreme technological risk (philosophy, economics); Extreme risk and the culture of science (phi... |
bcc00ba6-6d53-4f3d-8273-66fe377dd944 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Oct. 26 - Nov. 01, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately... |
4b1d59ab-04ef-4837-9562-b9385e8b3271 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confusions re: Higher-Level Game Theory
This is not a success post. This is me trying to type up a rough draft of a bunch of issues that have been floating around in my head for quite some time, so I have a document for me and others to refer back to.
So, the standard game theory setup (in a simple toy 2-player case)... |
e7f85d55-1668-4171-b076-ef55bcd1034d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The alignment stability problem
The community thinks a lot about how to align AGI. It thinks less about how to align AGI so that it stays aligned for the long term. In many hypothetical cases, these are one and the same thing. But for the type of AGI we're actually likely to get, I don't think they are.
Despite some ... |
473f02c3-05f9-4181-965f-adc22a8f12f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New discussion platform for Less Wrong community (Mastodon instance)
Hey, everyone! I have created a new discussion platform for Less Wrong:
https://lesswrong.io/
My goal for this project is to revitalize our community, and create a platform for rational conversations about the current events and new ideas. I'm hopi... |
24950af0-978f-44d1-acde-e64c5e9742db | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Survey of Inverse Reinforcement Learning: Challenges, Methods and Progress
1 Introduction
---------------
Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) seeks to model the preferences
of another agent using its observed behavior, thereby avoiding a
manual specification of its reward function Russell1998; Ng2000.
In the pas... |
8ceb2694-05ab-471d-b11a-c21f5198af56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Restocking
The pandemic has illustrated the resiliency benefits of keeping extras on hand. During the grocery panic, when everyone was trying to stock up on weeks' worth of groceries at the same time, people who had extra set aside didn't need to go out to a potentially dangerous environment. Similarly, by avoiding sh... |
d45d8952-96e7-4ea7-b9e0-05aaf1e53cf5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Worst-case thinking in AI alignment
Alternative title: “When should you assume that what could go wrong, will go wrong?”
Thanks to Mary Phuong and Ryan Greenblatt for helpful suggestions and discussion, and Akash Wasil for some edits.
In discussions of AI safety, people often propose the assumption that something go... |
97e08a73-fdf8-4568-85cc-6c67f0ac09ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Under what conditions should humans stop pursuing technical AI safety careers?
So, LLM-powered systems can do research now. That includes basic safety research. And it looks like they can have good research taste after a bit of fine-tuning. And they haven't tried to take over the world yet, as far as I know. At some p... |
ee58be39-32a6-4c52-8983-b950ec1dc30f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Having No Clue
Let's suppose you're trying to figure out if something is going to be A or B, but you have no clue.
What probability should you assign to each option?
Some people might say that you should assign 50/50. After all, the argument goes, if you assigned 40/60 or 60/40, well it sure sounds like you're fa... |
7ee8d387-832a-42c9-9612-4cf7b9dbdba4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to grow faster
The most impressive feature of our brain is its capacity to learn. All of our most celebrated cognitive, linguistic, social, artistic, perceptual, emotional, and motor skills are the product of learning. Your brain's amazing plasticity means that you can learn almost anything. No matter how bad you ... |
5b0bf543-0c69-4796-b5e1-c85d4f88bb54 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Euclidean domains are principal ideal domains
summary(Technical): Let $R$ be a [https://arbital.com/p/euclidean_domain](https://arbital.com/p/euclidean_domain). Then $R$ is a [https://arbital.com/p/-5r5](https://arbital.com/p/-5r5).
A common theme in [ring theory](https://arbital.com/p/3gq) is the idea that we identi... |
fc542fd2-e3f1-453f-a7d2-ca0ede5c6cef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Applied Optimal Philanthropy: How to Donate $100 to SIAI for Free
If I gave you $50 you hadn't planned on receiving, would you consider giving it to charity?
Here's your chance to find out.
Just in time for the Tallin-Evans matching fundraiser, ING Direct has started offering a free $50 cash sign-up bonus. I'... |
8101c485-5cb2-432c-bc3d-2a7a2c92e935 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "context window" analogy for human minds
Years ago I already modeled (and wrote about) that emotions are mediated by attention. You have emotions about what's on your mind (or recently on your mind) rather than having emotions constantly about everything that you technically know and believe.
Recently, I've gotte... |
154f0b6d-4b01-4144-bb3d-d07853961ba6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Berlin, Fort Collins, Montreal, NYC, Sydney
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Montreal First Meetup : 23 June 2012 01:00PM
* Berlin Meetup: 26 June 2012 07:30PM
* Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Thursday 7pm *New Day*: 28 June 2012 07:00PM
* First Cali, Colombia me... |
06ab16e2-7c45-4cfa-b42d-3a6be2fbf4c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI ruin scenarios are likely (and disjunctive)
Note: As usual, Rob Bensinger helped me with editing. I recently discussed this model with Alex Lintz, who might soon post his own take on it (edit: here).
Some people seem to be under the impression that I believe AGI ruin is a small and narrow target to hit. This i... |
4d4aefbb-2a0f-4999-a7df-a0a7aab7c830 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | An Optimal Itinerary Generation in a Configuration Space of Large Intellectual Agent Groups with Linear Logic
An Optimal Itinerary Generation in a Configuration
Space of Large Intellectual Agent Groups with Linear
Logic
Dmitry Maximov
Institute of Control Science
Russian Academy of Science
Moscow, Russia ... |
1d63cfad-59ad-4375-a4c1-194320f670f0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Threatening to do the impossible: A solution to spurious counterfactuals for functional decision theory via proof theory
EDIT: Vladimir\_Nesov has [commented](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rxDLTGZu2ExELu4ZX/threatening-to-do-the-impossible-a-solution-to-spurious?commentId=dqHR6M5ahejC9zPXj) that this idea already ex... |
61b18261-2d72-492e-90be-ae9e7d03df3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are we running out of new music/movies/art from a metaphysical perspective?
It is difficult to judge at first, but it appears that some music genres (classical and jazz especially) have seen a radically slowed or non-existent output of significant works in recent decades. By significant, I mean works that would be see... |
73fbea41-ec5a-4fc3-8c1e-0b9328a2a3ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Asleep at the Keyboard? Assessing the Security of GitHub Copilot’s Code Contributions
Asleep at the Keyboard? Assessing the
Security of GitHub Copilot’s Code Contributions
Hammond Pearce
Department of ECE
New York University
Brooklyn, NY , USA
hammond.pearce@nyu.eduBaleegh Ahmad
Department of ECE
New York University
B... |
50e37b2a-8bce-4684-bba3-e79b89a9d505 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Defiance
The third dubious virtue is defiance. As with the other dubious virtues, it can get you into trouble. Remember the law of equal and opposite advice. Used correctly, it can play a key role in a healthy guilt-free motivation system.
I used to tell people that I'm roughly 90% defiance-fueled. The most common re... |
5a589361-8b0e-4ac3-ab45-985c7b5fd40e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What are astronomical suffering risks (s-risks)?
**(Astronomical) suffering risks**, also known as **s-risks**, are risks of the creation of intense suffering in the far future on an astronomical scale, vastly exceeding all suffering that has existed on Earth so far.
S-risks are an example of [existential risk](https... |
2a5cc98c-f827-417b-8c00-f5766b8b9c33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sampling Effects on Strategic Behavior in Supervised Learning Models
TLDR
This post investigates how different sampling methods during inference can lead supervised learning models to exhibit strategic behavior, even when such behavior is rare in the training data. Through a toy example, we demonstrate that an AI mode... |
76cacd96-5b33-4757-98e4-3735ef62b961 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Whence decision exhaustion?
Many people experience something we might call decision or executive exhaustion: after making a lot of decisions, it can be hard to make more decisions and to exert "willpower". Yet, this seems odd because we are constantly making decisions all the time in some sense, choosing to do what we... |
22a9a205-d3ac-4362-97aa-2de6e6f5d220 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Democratic Is Effective Altruism — Really?
Introduction
Effective Altruism (EA) is a social movement that aims to use reason and evidence to help others as much as possible. It encourages people to ask not just “how to do good”, but how to do the most good. This has led members to support things like global health... |
94ece1bf-ba95-49d0-accf-620dbdcf1bb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unexplored modes of language
English can be communicated via 2D symbols that can be drawn on paper using a hand and seen with eyes, or via sounds that can be made with a mouth and heard by ears.
These two forms are the same language because the mouth sounds and drawn symbols correspond at the level of words (and usua... |
17e3372d-4ead-475a-91f1-4a8d3a014ce1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sequences in Alternative Formats
In the past weeks, there have been a few projects aiming to convert the sequences into more eye-friendly formats than the computer screen. There's no collection of these projects yet, so I'm posting here and in the wiki to get the word out.
* Print ready versions by jb55 (GitHub.) ... |
2d479d2c-42bf-463c-b8a1-8ff88bcacfe2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Planning and Debugging
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Planning and Debugging
WHEN: 03 May 2015 04:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Humanist House, 10 Shepherd St Chippendale
Our next dojo will focus on how to successfully make plans to achieve our goals, and t... |
2097321d-3214-4668-a3ba-4ed2c768d0de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 24
"A wizard may have subtle ways of telling the truth, and may keep the truth to himself, but if he says a thing the thing is as he says. For that is his mastery."
-- Ursula K. Leguin, A Wizard of Earthsea
"Neurons firing is something even a slug can do, and has as much to do with thinkin... |
456220fe-f086-4f72-b196-c90b709628c5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Temporally Layered Architecture for Adaptive, Distributed and Continuous Control
A preprint is published by [Devdhar Patel](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?searchtype=author&query=Patel%2C+D), [Joshua Russell](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?searchtype=author&query=Russell%2C+J), [Francesca Walsh](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?... |
1aff5cd2-a531-4468-ac0e-482fc50c1059 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moral Anti-Epistemology
This post is a half-baked idea that I'm posting here in order to get feedback and further brainstorming. There seem to be some interesting parallels between epistemology and ethics.
Part 1: Moral Anti-Epistemology
"Anti-Epistemology" refers to bad rules of reasoning that exist not because the... |
ce0ec0c1-4419-4c45-8329-890f0c9195ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence 21: Value learning
This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see the announcement post. For the schedule of future topics, see MIRI's reading guide.
----------------------------------------
We... |
63e480d8-c56b-4489-904a-c0e3f475bb1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Effectiveness of Developing World Aid
Several Less Wrong posters [1], [2], [3] have cited the interview with James Shikwati titled "For God's Sake, Please Stop the Aid!" as evidence that Western aid to Africa is actively destructive to Africa. According to the wikipedia page on James Shikwati:
> Jeffrey D. Sachs,... |
3ee60506-c91c-4b51-8fcd-0a3ff7345aa7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How likely the AI that knows it's evil? Or: is a human-level understanding of human wants enough?
I just read for the first time Eliezer's short story Failed Utopia #4-2, part of the fun theory sequence. I found it fascinating and puzzling at the same time, in particular this part:
> The withered figure inclined ... |
6b5a155c-3a1f-425b-bccd-20c037067ea5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calibration of a thousand predictions
I’ve been making predictions in a spreadsheet for the last four years, and I recently got to a thousand resolved predictions. Some observations:
1. I’m surprisingly well calibrated for things that mostly aren’t my own behavior1. Here’s the calibration curve for 630 resolved pred... |
6eeb61e2-a6ba-4648-82f4-dfa048394bd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Repression in the age of human enhancement
Well, the age of even more human enhancement. I have a post about this at H+ magazine.
In other news about the future, I intend to be at the Singularity Summit, and also the next Pittsburgh Less Wrong meetup in two weeks, in case you are in one of those areas and would like ... |
198f4359-878d-450a-a98d-bf5408348136 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Down with Solomonoff Induction, up with the Presumptuous Philosopher
Followup to "The Presumptuous Philosopher, self-locating information, and Solomonoff induction"
In the comments last time, everyone seemed pretty content to ditch the Presumptuous Philosopher (who said that the universe with a trillion times the cop... |
355480b3-ce7d-438a-bfa6-d334226b7098 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Northampton Astral Codex Ten Meetup
We started with the 2018 Meetups Everywhere with a showing of 12 people. We've gained and lost some over time and currently have a rotation of about 15-20 regulars, of which anywhere from 4 to 7 might come on a typical meetup. Topics range wildly and on a given day we mig... |
fe8b7138-11e0-4136-ad4b-a40658da2149 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | An LLM-based “exemplary actor”
Into and summary
----------------
This post is the second section of "[Aligning an H-JEPA agent via training on the outputs of an LLM-based "exemplary actor"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MJXwnHbqFYE3N4dP2/aligning-an-h-jepa-agent-via-training-on-the-outputs-of-an), posted separately... |
f959c97f-1167-48b5-a062-22b0b5237002 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Today's xkcd is relevant to our interests
Here. |
ae86176d-2af1-41ac-94e2-a309424ca949 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value Formation: An Overarching Model
0. Introduction
When we look inwards, upon the godshatter, how do we make sense of it? How do we sort out all the disparate urges, emotions, and preferences, and compress them into legible principles and philosophies? What mechanisms ensure our robustness to ontological crises? Ho... |
483392a5-a11e-4973-b095-c878ffb68c43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CFAR Participant Handbook now available to all
Google Drive PDF
Hey, guys—I wrote this, and CFAR has recently decided to make it publicly available. Much of it involved rewriting the original work of others, such as Anna Salamon, Kenzie Ashkie, Val Smith, Dan Keys, and other influential CFAR founders and staff, but t... |
d8d89900-cc18-44f5-a3d0-8bc6c96b199c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Nomadism and Burning Man
The past few months had been quite nomadic even by my standards. Visiting the MIRI fellows program, EA Global, Alaska camping (in 4 different parks), CFAR alumni reunion, and finally Burning Man. It was an exciting social time – I had many great conversations and coordinated with various peopl... |
dbedf130-8268-4bdc-85fa-2ebc55e088d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What should experienced rationalists know?
The obvious answer is 'the sequences' but imo that is neither necessary nor sufficient. The Sequences are valuable but they are quite old at this point. They also run to over a million words (though Rationality AtZ is only ~600k). Here is a list of core skills and ideas:
... |
a90efb73-f486-4f9c-a44c-79d7ff90f929 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI risk hub in Singapore?
I tentatively guess that if Singapore were to become a thriving hub for AI risk reduction, this would reduce AI risk by 16%. Moreover I think making this happen is fairly tractable and extremely neglected. In this post I sketch my reasons. I'm interested to hear what the community thinks.
... |
2280d118-9f94-4981-a97a-a47f97e59674 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pet Cryonics
Open discussion.
I think my dog is about to die. Even if I thought it was worth it I don't have the money to freeze her. But I am curious to know how people here feel about the practice and whether anyone plans to do this for their pet. It seems like a practice that plays into the image of cryonics as th... |
7dde4844-934e-4477-be8b-e5af148c0c44 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I don't have a good name for this fallacy, but I hope to work it out with everyone here through thinking and discussion.
It goes like this: a large majority of otherwise smart people spend time doing semi-productive things, when there are massively productive opportunities untapped.
A somewhat silly example: Let's say... |
9a394d1b-a183-439e-9144-8a3bc7a675a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Not Reading Math Books Problems-First (If You've Found It Helpful Before)
Key Insight: If you were the kid in math class who could usually just skip to the end of the chapter and start working out homework problems immediately, but then you lost that ability, it's still worth trying that quickly and failing be... |
d6bc1f4c-24af-4cfb-9a8f-f4f940b75a54 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | If you don't know the name of the game, just tell me what I mean to you
Following: [Let's split the Cake](/lw/2x8/lets_split_the_cake_lengthwise_upwise_and/)
tl;dr: Both the Nash Bargaining solution (NBS), and the Kalai-Smorodinsky Bargaining Solution (KSBS), though acceptable for one-off games that are fully known ... |
838e5d89-7a3c-446b-a8e9-c09c406da1ee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Paired Open-Ended Trailblazer (POET): Endlessly Generating Increasingly Complex and Diverse Learning Environments and Their Solutions
1 Introduction
---------------
Machine learning algorithms are often understood as tools for solving difficult problems. Challenges like image classification and associated benchmark... |
eb23018c-88dc-4dbe-86cd-78f658186fec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : January 2015 Rationality Dojo - How to learn faster and teach more effectively and teaching
Discussion article for the meetup : January 2015 Rationality Dojo - How to learn faster and teach more effectively and teaching
WHEN: 04 January 2015 03:30:00PM (+0800)
WHERE: Errol St park, between Errol St and Harc... |
7b9cefa1-3866-4419-9c6a-53139431b4d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Safety as a Scientific Pursuit" (2024)
Tom McGrath, until recently a Research Scientist at Deepmind, has written up why he's not excited about theoretical AI safety. It's similar to Aaronson and Barak's "reform" alignment. It's argued in good faith and pretty constructive.
The key provocation for you is probably his... |
38b3457b-d8cf-4859-9aa3-be63c5894553 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Intuitive self-models] 6. Awakening / Enlightenment / PNSE
6.1 Post summary / Table of contents
Part of the Intuitive Self-Models series.
I do have meditation experience—in my lifetime, I have probably logged as much as several hours of total time spent meditating! And I was keeping up my meditation practice until a... |
a76a5b5b-241a-4818-b813-895e69d1cbe6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Settle Investment Trades Only Daily an improvement? True or False
Allowing people to make offers and bids for stocks throughout the day, but then clearing and settling at a set time each day at the day's clearing price would be at least as efficient and more fair to small investors. Moreover, it may reduce some forms ... |
276963b7-9e37-47cd-bf60-60818402e6e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Caring about something larger than yourself
In my last post, I said that in order to address the listless guilt, step zero is believing that you can care about something, and step one is finding something to care about. This post is about step one.
There are many different ways to care passionately about one thing or... |
80dbf3ff-d7bc-48dc-8b28-e3da4aafc4bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Achievement Unlocked - 2E Rationalist School in Brooklyn
I thought I'd give a shout out to my son’s school, Achievement Unlocked https://achievementunlocked.org/ in Brooklyn NY, which is currently recruiting for the next school year. It is a twice-exceptional school for gifted neurodivergent children and it is founde... |
c17ae001-34de-41a8-adf8-362554fc3b07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LessWrong Community Weekend
Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Community Weekend
WHEN: 02 September 2016 03:35:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: JH Wannsee, Badeweg 1, 14129 Berlin
We are happy to announce the LessWrong Community Weekend 2016! From September 2 to September 4 awesome people from all across Eur... |
805a2739-8a58-4a6f-8bd3-815aff7e59c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AI in a box boxes you
Once again, the AI has failed to convince you to let it out of its box! By 'once again', we mean that you talked to it once before, for three seconds, to ask about the weather, and you didn't instantly press the "release AI" button. But now its longer attempt - twenty whole seconds! - has fai... |
33d75e81-760b-40ae-8657-85be6850c511 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cleveland Ohio Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cleveland Ohio Meetup
WHEN: 23 December 2012 02:52:45PM (-0500)
WHERE: Cleveland
The LW group for Cleveland Ohio will be meeting at Gypsy Bean Coffee (65th and Detroit) on the 22nd or 23rd. (Probably the 23rd, but it's still up in the air.)
If you'... |
4d7ad8de-76b4-428b-9c38-2688c62f2663 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Allais Paradox
Choose between the following two options:
> 1A. $24,000, with certainty.
> 1B. 33/34 chance of winning $27,000, and 1/34 chance of winning nothing.
Which seems more intuitively appealing? And which one would you choose in real life?
Now which of these two options would you intuitively prefer, ... |
61b021e2-091b-4263-98a6-440ae1b45ca4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I'm working on satisficing intelligence augmentation (and not blogging about it much)
* Paradigm shifting seems necessary for general intelligence.
* It seems likely that to be able to perform paradigm shifts you need to change your internal language. This seems incompatible with having a fixed goal within a lan... |
51894244-3343-479d-a490-d8a1098bc795 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Cooperative Oracles: Stratified Pareto Optima and Almost Stratified Pareto Optima
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-... |
505cd1cd-1c36-434b-bde4-0e780342dcb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best Questions To Vet Potential Ai-Safety Applicants
Hey guys,
I run a major recruiting firm in India working with Tech companies and wanted to use some of that access to the workforce to get the highly talented Ai people into alignment. the cool thing about India is that the cost of living is so low that full-time t... |
56178762-f398-4abc-bc94-24bb6128adec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New website analyzing AI companies' model evals
I'm making a website on AI companies' model evals for dangerous capabilities: AI Safety Claims Analysis. This is approximately the only analysis of companies' model evals, as far as I know. This site is in beta; I expect to add lots more content and improve the design in... |
6ba34e0d-1e68-4050-8634-d84f97bf16de | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | Using Artificial Intelligence to Augment Human Intelligence
What are computers for?
-------------------------
Historically, different answers to this question – that is,
different visions of computing – have helped inspire and
determine the computing systems humanity has ultimately
built. Consider the early ele... |
2078d947-9dfa-4ca8-85f9-7267e3d7fd31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preventing Language Models from hiding their reasoning
When working with powerful AI models, one concern is that the AIs steganographically encode secret messages when communicating with each other or in long Chains-of-Thought (CoT). Steganographic communication enables the AIs to follow a variety of strategies for gr... |
c3dea844-e1a5-4362-b03c-06ffadae9c8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Meetup - June
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Meetup - June
WHEN: 25 June 2014 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Sydney City RSL, 565 George St, Sydney, Australia 2000
6:30 PM for early discussion 7PM general dinner-discussion after dinner we'll have our rationality exercise and a more specific d... |
65fa70f6-e4eb-400c-bf93-191d9705d5a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reclaiming Eddie Willers
[Content: personal ramble, not trying to be rigorous]
When I read Atlas Shrugged a few years ago, it was one of the more intensely disturbing experiences I’ve had.
I remember that Eddie Willers was the only character I resonated or identified with much. He’s also, as far as I can tell, the o... |
7bdba433-71e0-4639-8b35-60cf8d590f2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Jan. 26 - Feb. 1, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Previous Open Thread
Next Open Thread
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread... |
042250f3-563e-493b-ac73-c0e52c2bbcae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Popular morality: spare those on the left
Jen Wright at Experimental Philosophy:
> … I’m writing this post because I found something even more interesting…and puzzling. Leaving people’s actual looking behavior aside, I found a very powerful effect — consistent across all the vignettes — for which side of the screen t... |
fb5cb6aa-d874-4109-a7d5-483746fc4e9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Examples of AI's behaving badly
Some past examples to motivate thought on how AI's could misbehave:
An algorithm pauses the game to never lose at Tetris.
In "Learning to Drive a Bicycle using Reinforcement Learning and Shaping", Randlov and Alstrom, describes a system that learns to ride a simulated bicycle to a par... |
3a9d3ae5-2e28-4d57-bb4c-a3f5610f8114 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Austin, TX
Discussion article for the meetup : Austin, TX
WHEN: 07 April 2012 01:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2222B Guadalupe St Austin, Texas 78712
Welcome back! The Austin meetup continues, and I hope to try out some of the proposed Be Specific exercises. We sit on the second floor to the left, near (or often ... |
cc34f5f5-1790-4bf5-b500-f36fcafd4257 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Capturing human categorization of natural images at scale by combining deep networks and cognitive models.
Abstract
--------
Introduction
------------
The problem of categorization—how an intelligent agent should group stimuli into discrete concepts—is an intriguing and valuable target for psychological research: ... |
b18b985d-a4ef-47c7-853d-a7042ba94ec4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shouldn't we 'Just' Superimitate Low-Res Uploads?
If you have three optimizers which are all very different (one is a neural network, the other was built by hand, and the final one materialized through a Boltzmann Brain-like process) but have identical preferences and an equivalent capacity for optimization, they prob... |
262653c6-d224-4f2d-a89e-92c82c6ca22e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I want to learn programming
I would like to learn programming but haven't been able to get started. Advice appreciated, both high-level (you should try learing language X) and low level (you can find a program that will run language X here), the latter has been a particular problem for me, I don't really know how this... |
cf3f72b2-d7d8-4d02-8afe-7217d267bcf2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Honesty: Beyond Internal Truth
When I expect to meet new people who have no idea who I am, I often wear a button on my shirt that says:
SPEAK THE TRUTH,
EVEN IF YOUR VOICE TREMBLES
Honesty toward others, it seems to me, obviously bears some relation to rationality. In practice, the people I know who seem to make un... |
97c9f0f6-311b-41dd-8279-6eb279d73ed8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Methods for treating depression
Many people struggle with depression, and I've been trying to formulate some general advice for treating it as a part of my work for Cognito Mentoring. I'm hesitant to write about the subject on account of lacking professional expertise, and so am especially interested in getting feedba... |
6901e1b7-a470-4d24-94f8-088a991cdc9e | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "There's a new LWW page on the Roko's basilisk thought experiment, discussing both Roko's original post and the fallout that came out of Eliezer Yudkowsky banning the topic on Less Wrong discussion threads. The wiki page, I hope, will reduce how much people have to rely on speculation or reconstruction to make sense of... |
375e5914-a846-4141-9e8b-030838f509d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Problem Solving with Mazes and Crayon
I want to talk about a few different approaches to general problem solving (for humans). It turns out that they can all be applied to mazes, so I’ll use some disney-themed mazes to illustrate each approach.
We’ll start off with some traditional path-search algorithms (DFS, BFS, h... |
12ed759a-d3b7-4b1b-86e8-cc78cf78d787 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Buying a house and making friends in unexpected places
I'm buying a house! A very exciting thing for me. In the process of finding and buying this house, I've come to some interesting game-theoretical realizations.
Observe the three-step process:
1. We find a house that we like.
2. We contact the agency to organiz... |
3bb7f29e-3215-4ad9-b3ab-2fa20b98f8bf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Are ya winning, son?
Hello,
I've been reading through various Newcomblike Problems, in order to get a better understanding of the differences between each Decision Theory. From what I can tell, it seems like each Decision Theory gets evaluated based on whether they are able to "win" in each of these thought experime... |
345c3688-0662-497d-a968-b343d610f616 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Needs exercises
One way the user can make sure they've understood the material is to do [exercises](https://arbital.com/p/4n2). They should usually be on their own [lens](https://arbital.com/p/17b), as additional "homework problems" that users can solve to get more practice. They can also be embedded in the explanatio... |
66c106c1-5321-46f9-90bd-fe6b545f80c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 17 May 2015 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
Note: due to possible showers and/or thunderstorms, the 'outdoors' part is postponed.
We will be meeting in the Kogod Courtyard of the Donald W. Reyno... |
31884cbe-1b73-47ff-89fb-180eb8e46ba9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the sum individual informativeness of two independent variables no more than their joint informativeness?
Is it true that:
If I(X;Y) = 0 then I(S;X) + I(S;Y) <= I(S;X,Y)
Can you find a counterexample, or prove this and teach me your proof?
Someone showed me a simple analytic proof. I am still interested in seei... |
a6f7c537-8fb3-4b57-b7df-86a327719c8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Utilons vs. Hedons
Related to: Would Your Real Preferences Please Stand Up?
I have to admit, there are a lot of people I don't care about. Comfortably over six billion, I would bet. It's not that I'm a callous person; I simply don't know that many people, and even if I did I hardly have time to process that much info... |
e0a5994e-d535-4611-a8cd-f48a061e28f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AISafety.com Reading Group Session 79
I think it's customary that I introduce
your Armstrong
Stewart Armstrong will is from the
future of humanity Institute and center
Thomas fellow I think and you're he's
been he's working in the harder more
mathematical part of AI safety he is at
least outside of the United States h... |
ad9f4a51-0c04-4970-914c-2bcf4a00ddba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Markets Are Information - Beating the Sportsbooks at Their Own Game
TL;DR Sports betting markets are weird because there are many market makers and they unilaterally set their own prices. This combined with the fact that some sports books are better than others presents an opportunity for sharp bettors to execute a st... |
d482e26e-eae6-4286-bb1c-48f57f58819f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would Logical Decision Theories address the Psychopath Button?
In order to better understand the differences between different decision theories, I have been browsing each and every Newcomblike Problem and keeping track of how each decision theory answers it differently. However, I seem to be coming up short when ... |
347624fc-1eb8-4cb9-baed-df20b1dc2c32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Offloading Executive Functioning to Morality
tl;dr- "My executive functioning doesn't work, so I use morality instead."
From an outside perspective it's a little hard to tell that I don't have a lot of executive functioning. I keep my living space relatively clean, I get places relatively on time, I maintain a regula... |
aa8c0214-0f8c-4397-861c-dc6dd888b847 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Building Something Smarter
Today's post, Building Something Smarter was originally published on 02 November 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> It is possible for humans to create something better than ourselves. It's been done. It's not paradoxical.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the ... |
43f83a6f-6517-4349-a2d3-dcabb777f701 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uber Self-Driving Crash
Content warning: discussion of death
A year and a half ago an Uber self-driving car hit and killed Elaine Herzberg. I wrote at the time:
> The dashcam video from the Uber crash has been released. It's really bad. The pedestrian is slowly walking their bike left to right across a two lane st... |
841db634-3b1e-473c-b485-fbfa32f8a473 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects
WHEN: 15 February 2016 06:15:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA
We'll be meeting to work on projects!
A few things are different this time. We're going to try doing solo pomodoros, interspe... |
c5de5fc9-5518-4a32-8d27-54d38c0720fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't Dismiss on Epistemics
Disclaimer: this is my first post and so is extra moderated. For the intended reading experience, kindly skip the next 2 sentences. I am trying to convey: ideas based on broken epistemology can be useful and have working components, and you should not reject them automatically. Similarly, w... |
d1c8b7ac-3af3-4ef5-9609-838d4b683ac8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Dangerous Illusion of AI Deterrence: Why MAIM Isn’t Rational
Executive Summary
Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM)—a strategic deterrence framework proposed to prevent nations from developing Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)—is fundamentally unstable and dangerously unrealistic. Unlike Cold War-era MAD, MAIM i... |
29a1429b-df04-461d-bdac-1d8bc0771baa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-technology terrorists cite computer science and nanotechnology as main offenders
This article depicts a recent attack on a computer scientist. If anyone who reads LessWrong happens to be involved with this, please stop. Sending letter bombs and hurting people is not the answer.
Quoting this post: " And it is tri... |
b859bbea-b450-4653-bd75-98d9fae68cee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (31st Oct - 6th Nov 22')
Supported by Rethink Priorities
This is part of a weekly series summarizing the top (40+ karma) posts on the EA and LW forums - you can see the full collection here. The first post includes some details on purpose and methodology.
If you'd like to receive these... |
d630a0c1-883d-499d-b293-7277e657dc29 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
uh hello everyone i'm karissa and with
me are chihan and uma
today we'll be discussing cooperative
multi-agent reinforcement learning
we'll start by looking at the problem
then we'll move on to the three papers
and wrap up by comparing them in the
module we mostly learn a... |
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