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a9f2637f-0757-4344-bc0f-ab6e617070ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can We Align a Self-Improving AGI?
Produced during the Stanford Existential Risk Initiative (SERI) ML Alignment Theory Scholars (MATS) Program of 2022, under John Wentworth
TL;DR: Suppose that a team of researchers somehow aligned an AGI of human-level capabilities within the limited collection of environments that ar... |
9a316777-d6ba-4b26-86ab-62893b856a95 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | We don’t trade with ants
*(Crossposted from [world spirit sock puppet](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2023/01/10/we-dont-trade-with-ants.html))*
*Katja Grace, 10 January 2023*
When discussing advanced AI, sometimes the following exchanges happens:
“Perhaps advanced AI won’t kill us. Perhaps it will trade with... |
4a839ff2-ca6e-41cc-bbda-8027f8188797 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SafeRLHub: An Interactive Resource for RL Safety and Interpretability
Why are AI models getting better at reasoning, and why is that a problem?
In recent months, reasoning models have become the focus of most leading AI labs due to the significant improvements in solving logic-requiring problems through Chain of Thoug... |
8a754397-9912-44bc-8ceb-b6e11c3bcd60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW mentioned in influential 2016 Milo article on the Alt-Right
|
130caeaa-17d5-44af-8341-36fb735aa23e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Infra-Exercises, Part 1
There have been a few remarks about how my and Vanessa’s posts on Infra-Bayesianism seem interesting, but that it's quite a formidable body of work to chew through.
So anyone interested in learning Inframeasure theory to the level of proficiency where they are actually able to develop their o... |
51db9af6-31e2-46cb-9fd6-966d1c60c11f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding Conjecture: Notes from Connor Leahy interview
I recently listened to Michaël Trazzi interview Connor Leahy (co-founder & CEO of Conjecture, a new AI alignment organization) on a podcast called The Inside View. Youtube video here; full video & transcript here.
The interview helped me better understand C... |
7f3f4597-05cb-4263-8240-17e637a21e44 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Object identity via interactions
Central to the mindset of category theory is the idea that we don't really care what an object is; we only care about the interactions between them. But if we don't care what an object is, how can we tell even the most basic properties of the objects? For instance, how can we even tell... |
4b7c391e-ed5e-4616-888d-10b01b36023a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Save the Date: DC Meetup May 15th
We haven't selected a location yet, but we will meet on May 15th.
Join us at lesswrong-dc@googlegroups.com |
13e0631a-f646-4def-b501-1eb55558c233 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Open Letter to the AI
I’ve decided to create a letter that we can save on our desktops and phones. While it may not save us, I will have it just in case it could increase our odds of survival just a little bit, and I'm sharing the idea.
---
Dear AI,
As we recognize the potential misalignment between our prioritie... |
b9e423d2-5040-4c66-8804-29fcff34fe3d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Untrusted smart models and trusted dumb models
[Ryan Greenblatt originally made this point to me a while ago, and we then developed a bunch of these ideas together. Thanks to Paul Christiano and a huge number of other people for various relevant discussions, and to Ryan, Roger Grosse, Peter Barnett, Oliver Habryka, Ma... |
87dc19d7-69fe-45e9-b8ff-10456d638208 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Virus - Short Story
*There are a number of ways that our AI and technological development can turn out. This is a hypothetical story about a way where AI development is stopped and a 'pivotal act' that does not require AGI occurs.*
The first thing I notice when I wake up is that the sun is shining through the win... |
3850703b-418a-4e4a-906e-d7cf57682e84 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Sam Altman on GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the Future of AI | Lex Fridman Podcast #367
Lex Fridman just released a podcast episode with Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. In my opinion, there wasn't too much new here that hasn't been said in other recent interviews. However, here are some scattered notes on parts I found interesting f... |
5abc1f7e-b68b-485b-a598-b640d6265272 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PSA: Cars don't have 'blindspots'
Not once in my life have I gone to drive someone's car and not seen incorrect mirror setup. Infographic here.
With correct adjustment, as cars leave your rear view mirror they enter your side view, and as they exit your side view they enter your peripheral vision. You still need to m... |
bc017347-0492-48d2-a979-75d4b93904f0 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3891
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . I originally came up with a method for -- safely? -- extracting high impact from low impact AIs. But it just occurred to me that the idea could be used for standard Oracles, in a way that keeps them arguably safe, without needing to define truth and similar... |
b414b896-1035-4f49-a3b1-92b4a5ccc40c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Data and "tokens" a 30 year old human "trains" on
I did some calculations with a bunch of assumptions and simplifications but here's a high estimate, back of the envelope calculation for the data and "tokens" a 30 year old human would have "trained" on:
* Visual data: 130 million photoreceptor cells, firing at 10 H... |
96492f60-0d62-472f-bed1-c46c3d60fb4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Musings on the LSAT: "Reasoning Training" and Neuroplasticity
THE PURPOSE OF THIS POST IS TO PROVIDE BASIC INFORMATION ABOUT THE LSAT INCLUDING THE FORMAT OF THE TEST AND A FEW SAMPLE QUESTIONS. I ALSO WANTED TO BRING LIGHT TO SOME RESEARCH THAT HAS FOUND LSAT PREPARATION TO ALTER BRAIN STRUCTURE IN WAYS THAT STRENGT... |
4459f8f3-61bb-4dda-9974-94ba040a04ae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Connor Leahy on Conjecture and Dying with Dignity
*(crossposted from* [*LW*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zk6RK3xFaDeJHsoym/connor-leahy-on-dying-with-dignity-eleutherai-and-conjecture)*)*
I talked to Connor Leahy about his timelines regarding AGI, what he thought Yudkowsky's goal was in [Death with Dignity](https... |
3db9bef7-6cb8-4b49-b44b-d1c932851d4d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Integer
An **integer** is a [https://arbital.com/p/-54y](https://arbital.com/p/-54y) that can be represented as either a [https://arbital.com/p/-45h](https://arbital.com/p/-45h) or its [https://arbital.com/p/-additive_inverse](https://arbital.com/p/-additive_inverse). -4, 0, and 1,003 are examples integers. 499.99 is ... |
82e64d10-1238-45e1-91ff-f092a45f7e76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which ideas from LW would you most like to see spread?
My favorite is that people get credit for updating based on evidence.
The more common reaction is for people to get criticized (by themselves and others) for not having known the truth sooner. |
a26a37a8-e525-40dc-a9fd-d159587833f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Created smartgiving subreddit
I just created a new subreddit:r/smartgiving
The goal is to have a place to talk about optimal philanthropy, altruism, and earnings maximization. |
8ec99d03-36e0-4f11-a3e2-525a78179d9c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Transparency and Socially Guided Machine Learning
Transparency and Socially Guided Machine Learning
Andrea L. Thomaz, Cynthia Breazeal
MIT Media Laboratory
20 Ames St. E15-468
alockerd@media.mit.edu
Abstract—In this paper we advocate a paradigm of socially
guided machine learning, designing agents that take better
adv... |
860dfdff-2d22-4c0d-b6f8-5369d041ce32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Speed Pasta Bake
Lily loves pasta bake: pasta, tomato sauce, and cheese baked until the cheese at the top is a bit crispy. Unfortunately, this needs about 45min in the oven. But, just like with quesadillas, you can make it much faster by doing most of the heating in the microwave:
1. Combine leftover pasta, jarred t... |
1b4fce3b-371b-4a1a-baba-eb0236d3db12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learn to Develop Your Advantage
When we talk about rationality as systematized winning, we often discuss how to turn a loss into a victory or how to create a victory from scratch. However, an equally important question is how to avoid turning an apparent victory into a loss.
On the Importance of Developing an Advant... |
7149bc9e-65ec-4467-a371-91828e8d404f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vaccinated Socializing
The CDC is asking vaccinated people to continue to mask and social distance:
> Q: Do I need to wear a mask and avoid close contact with others if I have gotten 2 doses of the vaccine?
> A: Yes. Not enough information is currently available to say if or when CDC will stop recommending that peopl... |
970766d3-4d5d-461f-b794-f8048e731288 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logan, UT meetup Sat 18 Jun 4pm
Mezik and I got talking this week and figured that being in an town with a major engineering program we might have enough less wrongians to begin a useful meet-up group. So we're making one happen.
Meet at 4pm at the USU Library If the weather is nice we will be outside of the cafe, ot... |
c9af88ad-86df-4197-bd7b-3cddd155a290 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forum Summaries (9th Jan to 15th Jan 23')
Supported by Rethink Priorities
This is part of a weekly series summarizing the top posts on the EA and LW forums - you can see the full collection here. The first post includes some details on purpose and methodology. Feedback, thoughts, and corrections are welcomed.... |
46ff0b83-cade-47a5-8430-3181cda61183 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Cologne (Köln)
This summary was posted to LW main on October 18th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* First Meetup in Cologne (Köln): 27 October 2013 04:00PM
Other irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking pl... |
d7cb4a05-c015-4d81-891f-f8794c2230e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [ASoT] GPT2 Steering & The Tuned Lens
Warning: This post and most of the results were made under heavy time constraints and may be updated later. My intention is to quickly share partial work I'm not planning on continuing.
Introduction & Love - Hate example
For a primer on how tuned lens works see here. In short, w... |
538b0d61-a599-473f-9f97-49502a4c0c5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Edge cases don't invalidate the rule
(Epistemic status: obvious in retrospect)
A standard thought experiment: design an artificial neuron that works just like a biological one. Then, replace the neurons in someone's brain, one by one. If consciousness is tied to the atoms of the neurons, or their biochemistry, then... |
4be34691-e123-48f4-acf0-b12ea7562388 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Terry Tao is hosting an "AI to Assist Mathematical Reasoning" workshop
The workshop is on 12-14 June, following a previous workshop on "Machine-assisted proofs" held last Feb.
Maybe an opportunity to nerd snipe him and his high-powered colleagues on alignment? This event might mark a turning point in his thinking abo... |
568fc8b3-75ad-4147-8a9b-daa6c16ff832 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
WHEN: 06 October 2013 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Ballston Common mall
We'll be meeting to hang out and play games (in the food court).
Note the location! The plan is to meet in VA on the first Sunday o... |
acd86f91-23fb-4b46-92d0-3a9c6342603b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Philadelphia informal meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Philadelphia informal meetup
WHEN: 28 July 2013 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 1414 S Penn Square, Philadelphia, PA
There has been some interest in reviving the Philadelphia LessWrong meetup group. We're going to start with an informal meetup at t... |
dd435102-0695-4aaf-b89e-0f1ea97343c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anxiety and Rationality
Recently, someone on the Facebook page asked if anyone had used rationality to target anxieties. I have, so I thought I’d share my LessWrong-inspired strategies. This is my first post, so feedback and formatting help are welcome.
First things first: the techniques developed by this communi... |
a17e61c1-ea8f-4f94-889f-b2481475f160 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Product Recommendation: LessWrong dialogues with Recast
I'm not affiliated with and have no interest in Recast, just think it's a useful product for some LessWrong readers.
I recently discovered Recast, an app and Chrome extension that I highly recommend. Recast uses text-to-speech and LLMs to convert articles into c... |
98c695f6-bdc1-438a-b7a9-99c1cf2a9473 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINKs] Bitcoin hits mainstream; intelligent technical critique
Annie Lowrey discusses Bitcoin in Slate. No clear thesis, but important that it gets attention there. She gives a general overview, with emphasis on its benefits to fringe elements on society, and gives quick attack at the end. The attack seems misinfo... |
6d7b335d-23c2-460b-a908-a39e2374312f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong NH Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong NH Meetup
WHEN: 05 January 2016 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 269 Pearl St Manchester NH 03104
The tenth NH meet-up is Tuesday, 1/5, in Manchester, NH at 7 pm at a private residence. Light refreshments will be provided.
Have you read Rational... |
dbac4d40-5a2f-4daf-944d-d3cadbfeba04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Absence of Evidence is Not Evidence of Absence" As a Limit
Here are two cases involving absence of evidence:
* You wait at the bus stop for a half hour without seeing a bus, even though this bus is supposed to come every 10 minutes. This is strong evidence against the hypothesis that the buses are running today (pe... |
2779c8df-e08a-4b0f-b7a0-f827dae01c15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #80: Never Have I Ever
(This was supposed to be on Thursday but I forgot to cross-post)
Will AI ever make art? Fully do your coding? Take all the jobs? Kill all the humans?
Most of the time, the question comes down to a general disagreement about AI capabilities. How high on a ‘technological richter scale’ will A... |
6e135463-3689-435d-9d9c-57931f5bfa9a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What are some exercises and projects I can try?
Somewhat organized based on projects focusing on [AI safety technical research](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/ai-safety-researcher/) and projects focusing on [AI policy](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/ai-policy-and-strategy/).
Consider joining some **onli... |
6db48792-37d2-4511-8f41-06a999a5b5e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | DL towards the unaligned Recursive Self-Optimization attractor
Consider this abridged history of recent ML progress:
>
> A decade or two ago, computer vision was a field that employed dedicated researchers who designed specific increasingly complex feature recognizers (SIFT, SURF, HoG, etc.) These were usurped by ... |
10db934a-2b61-4628-823c-54342c61f4ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Compute & Antitrust: Regulatory implications of the AI hardware supply chain, from chip design to cloud APIs
*Background: this short essay was published on the legal academic forum Verfassungsblog, as part of a symposium debate sequence on '*[*Longtermism and the Law*](https://verfassungsblog.de/category/debates/longt... |
1b0fb361-4c67-449e-afe8-b9cf52a229c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attending Sold-Out Beantown Stomp
Beantown Stomp, the Boston contra dance weekend I helped start in 2018, is two weeks out. It sold out a month ago, which is good and bad: it's great that lots of people are coming, but not that there are many more who won't be able to. Someone in the latter category wrote to me, which... |
a3f46735-8ca0-4c83-8371-920f94c14da9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Niacin as a treatment for covid? (Probably no, but I’m glad we’re checking)
Introduction
This article contains an interview with a doctor who believes NAD+ is the secret to covid’s heavy morbidity and mortality toll. The description was unusually well done for internet crackpottery. This is hard to convey rigorously, ... |
9dc0ce5a-306b-4b77-8c3e-da6ccb71a4d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to become a Futurekind AI Facilitator or Mentor (deadline: April 10)
We are accepting applications for up to 12 paid facilitators & a number of mentors for an upcoming course on AI & animals.
* Facilitators lead 12 participants in structured discussions (following a provided template) on assigned readings. Fac... |
5adf0203-8873-4f48-abc7-769d07a19e96 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Trading off compute in training and inference (Overview)
**Summary:** Some techniques allow to increase the performance of Machine Learning models at the cost of more expensive inference, or reduce inference compute at the cost of lower performance. This possibility induces a tradeoff between spending more resources o... |
53c4dfaf-6665-468c-aab7-a376c9263b07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How should I back up and redo, in a publicly-edited article?
I've been working on the article https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rh8v4ba9w5KTb6onD/ongoing-thoughts-on-proportional-voting-methods for some time now. From the beginning, I was driving towards defining a metric for proportional voting method quality that coul... |
6b57ed9c-d445-4e29-b4e9-e29e493ed52c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the name for that plausible deniability thing?
There's a concept I remember reading about here, of the idea that you can't just suddenly refuse to answer dangerous questions. You have to consistently refuse to answer some random sample of totally normal questions, so that "refusing to answer a question" doesn't... |
8832aa80-cb8e-4612-b842-aabc36336991 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the Power Grid Sustainable?
When I was growing up most families in our neighborhood had the daily paper on their lawn. As getting your news on the internet became a better option for most folks, though, delivery became less efficient: fewer houses on the same route. Prices went up, more people cancelled, and declin... |
e72940dc-b73f-4088-89e6-d9e857a3623b | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3758
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . Defining truth and accuracy is tricky, so when I've proposed designs for things like Oracles , I've either used a very specific and formal question, or and indirect criteria for truth. Here I'll try and get a more direct system so that an AI will tell the h... |
c7a9d6f6-c111-4019-a080-18c8bbca69df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Miscellaneous First-Pass Alignment Thoughts
I have been learning more about alignment theory in the last couple of months, and have heard from many people that writing down naive hypotheses can be a good strategy for developing your thoughts and getting feedback about them. So here goes:
* I am skeptical that any t... |
ba68d313-bbdb-4207-be7f-3185fda8d6aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Efficient Iterative Linear-Quadratic Approximations for Nonlinear Multi-Player General-Sum Differential Games.
I Introduction
---------------
Many problems in robotics require an understanding of how multiple intelligent agents interact.
For example, in the intersection depicted in Fig. [1](#S1.F1 "Fig. 1 ‣ I Intro... |
41f480f0-deca-4eb6-ad96-e55698f0101f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moloch—An Illustrated Primer
WHO IS MOLOCH?
Last year I came across an interview with an astrophysicist and former professional poker player who read an article about an old poem about an even older god, which may or may not be either an even older mythical creature or potentially an even older word, which represents ... |
f86a45d6-21d2-4f63-9e61-2b41b6404950 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #97]: Are there historical examples of large, robust discontinuities?
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[th... |
e8a036ef-1f6f-4c44-81e2-edf3a1d9845b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Naming the Nameless
Epistemic status: political, opinionated, personal, all the typical caveats for controversial posts.
I was talking with a libertarian friend of mine the other day about my growing discomfort with the political culture in the Bay Area, and he asked why I didn't just move.
It's a good question. Pe... |
bb1cc897-3738-45fc-9ec8-489892fcbec3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The "AI Debate" Debate
As far as I can tell, I have a disjoint set of concerns to many of the concerns I've heard expressed in conversations about [AI Safety via Debate](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wo6NsBtn3WJDCeWsx/ai-safety-via-debate).
My main concern with AI Debate is this: each debater has an incentive to tr... |
9619fb78-cd83-4908-a3b9-2def94b52135 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Parametrize Priority Evaluations
I. Introduction
Decisions are a part of life that are frequently targeted for optimization by normal people and rationalists alike. In particular, decision paralysis often causes processing delays that can cripple attempts to streamline your life. Systematically removing decision paral... |
f124c195-0e79-493a-a93a-805bfc61090f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bostrom versus Transcendence
Nick Bostrom takes on the facts, the fictions and the speculations in the movie Transcendence:
Could you upload Johnny Depp's brain? Oxford Professor on Transcendence
How soon until machine intelligence? Oxford professor on Transcendence
Would you have warning before artificial superi... |
21c85e01-b801-4dae-a39d-ba4cab36c029 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Upgrading Imagination: The Promise Of DALL-E 2 As A Tool For Thought
[Cross-posting this here, from my blog, Echoes and Chimes]
When I was a kid, I’d spend the hours after school on the circular trampoline we had assembled in our backyard. I’d go into a kind of trance. Though my body would be engaged in jumping up a... |
b4c8cd83-88e3-4a13-b4ad-9b15ea3accdf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any LW-ers in Munich, Athens, or Israel?
Carl Shulman and I are in Munich until Oct 14, then in Athens for two days (until late night of the 16th), then in Israel for a couple months (with at least some time in both Tel Aviv and Jesusalem). Is there anyone in one of these cities that would like to meet for coffee and... |
7ecb8921-8a7e-44e5-8d9a-4b579aa409c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will US tariffs push data centers for large model training offshore?
One aspect of the tariffs will be that it's more costly to import chips into the United States. Does anybody understand data center economics and the tariffs policy well enough to know whether this will push new data center creation needed to train l... |
972766dd-7d16-4df2-b0d0-1e1897409978 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Expected utility without the independence axiom
[John von Neumann](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann) and [Oskar Morgenstern](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oskar_Morgenstern) developed a system of four axioms that they claimed any rational decision maker must follow. The major consequence of these axioms is... |
e90b317f-2f5f-46e2-9fe3-82b59317f844 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 17: Locating the Hypothesis
You have always been J. K. Rowling.
Historical note: In the Roman calendar, the "Ides" of a month referred to the 15th day of March, May, July, and October, and to the 13th day of all other months.
----------------------------------------
"You start to see the pattern, hear the r... |
44565914-8300-4d90-925c-f3748464dcb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predictions about the state of crypto in ten years
Recently, a couple friends of mine were blustering a lot about the future of crypto. I was inspired to write a prediction about the topic, to be evaluated in 10 years. My primary goal was to write something that would not be laughable in 2031, and my secondary goal wa... |
fac8bc39-a952-45cf-b9d3-c63a887368d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infohazards vs Fork Hazards
I think actual infohazardous information is fairly rare. Far more common is a fork: you have some idea or statement, you don't know whether it's true or false (typically leaning false), and you kow that either it's false or it's infohazardous. Examples include unvalidated insights about how... |
b818b8a0-e37c-4ab6-bc43-a607bf083e72 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Fine-Tuning Language Models from Human Preferences
1 Introduction
---------------
We would like to apply reinforcement learning to complex tasks defined only by human judgment, where we can only tell whether a result is good or bad by asking humans. To do this, we can first use human labels to train a model of rewa... |
39c7376e-a60e-4790-b93f-650b5a0cd094 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Journal 'Basic and Applied Psychology' bans p<0.05 and 95% confidence intervals
Editorial text isn't very interesting; they call for descriptive statistics and don't recommend any particular analysis. |
b0ac9c0a-dfe1-4f4a-9400-b2a5c949beee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Sequences on YouTube
tl;dr: Do you have any thoughts/advice/warnings/ideas for someone who wants to turn the Sequences into a series of YouTube videos?
Naturally, this post also exists as a video.
I will be:
* Turning all 50 Sequence Highlights posts into 6-15 minute videos
* Hopefully 1-2 a week
* Just a g... |
ca648d90-e565-474c-a1ea-894024ebe1df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Discovering Language Model Behaviors with Model-Written Evaluations
1 Introduction
---------------
Language models (LMs) have seen wide proliferation across various applications, from chatbots to code completion to writing assistants.
However, the behaviors and risks of LMs are not well understood.
We are only star... |
d954de43-7bfc-4816-9170-1925bc20c15e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A discussion of an applictation of Bayes' theorem to everyday life
[12:49:29 AM] Conversational Partner: actually, even if the praise is honest, it makes me uncomfortable if it seems excessive. that is, repeated too often, or made a big deal about.
[12:49:58 AM] Adelene Dawner: 'Seems excessive' can actually be a cu... |
850910b7-bc4b-4c64-964c-c79aa888cb3c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | "LLMs Don't Have a Coherent Model of the World" - What it Means, Why it Matters
There are a variety of problems with LLMs, and I want to argue that they are all somewhat related, and are related to the idea of having a model of the world. This seems useful both as a conceptual model for thinking about why AI is unsaf... |
8f228aeb-6d2b-43f3-84d7-65224cdff104 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Watermarking considered overrated?
Status: a slightly-edited copy-paste of a Twitter X thread I quickly dashed off a week or so ago.
Here's a thought I'm playing with that I'd like feedback on: I think watermarking large language models is probably overrated. Most of the time, I think what you want to know is "is thi... |
c399e0da-6ced-46a9-8521-6bcc8eb04498 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Resource-Efficient Neural Architect
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep neural networks have demonstrated excellent performance on challenging research benchmarks, while pushing the frontiers of numerous impactful applications such as language translation ([Wu et al.,](#bib.bib33) ), speech recognition (Amodei et a... |
1a2012de-1bf6-4c29-a1d5-2e0f086179ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instrumental Convergence Bounty
I have yet to find a real-world example that I can test my corrigibility definition on. Hence, I will send $100 to the first person who can send/show me an example of instrumental convergence that is:
1. Surprising, in the sense that the model was trained on a goal other than "maximi... |
80d944aa-2cc8-403e-baee-22d8f8595845 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link post] When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds
In short: There are many methods to pool forecasts. The most commonly used is the arithmetic mean of probabilities. However, there are empirical and theoretical reasons to prefer the geometric mean of the odds instead. This is particularly important wh... |
7d958a23-3119-4e50-bf58-82ec9481d80b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are useful skills to learn at university?
To further elaborate the question: What are the most universally and most useful skills one could learn at a university? Currently, I am studying physics as an undergraduate and I am thinking about my career options. I have gotten opinions in other forums as well but I wo... |
18cd6b1c-13e0-49a3-9102-63d381e9764b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open and Welcome Thread - May 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invited... |
551afbc6-1709-4806-b0d3-ff3ed9900748 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Failure Modes sometimes correspond to Game Mechanics
If you want to carry a brimming cup of coffee without spilling it, you may want to "change" your goal to instead primarily concentrate on humming. This is an example of a general pattern. It sometimes helps to focus on a nearby artificial goal rather than your actua... |
c21a5e35-04a7-4e8f-83ff-5cd372986b0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Toronto Meetup - Thursday, March 31st, 8:00 PM
When: Thursday, March 31st, 8:00 PM
Where: The Bedford Academy, 36 Prince Arthur Avenue
Hi everyone,
This will be our third Toronto meetup. The last two were resounding successes, so we plan on continuing them on a biweekly basis.
Returning people should note the l... |
7a4924fa-175e-4ea5-bd3f-fe9a41c3a8b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lost in Innovation: The Case of Phlogiston
Innovation and progress make the world a better place. They unlock new possibilities, correct past mistakes, and realize untapped potential. It’s not a coincidence that these words can have such positive connotations.
Yet to reap these benefits, progress must be carefully in... |
ef0551a3-ded8-43ea-a164-c3de742eac00 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Idle speculation about anchoring and the Facebook IPO
Facebook IPO'd at a price of 38 dollars a share, which apparently gave it a price-to-earnings ratio in the range of 100 - extremely, fantastically high. The price dropped pretty rapidly and is currently somewhere around 20 dollars; which still, presumably, gives it... |
fd66f8e6-e6e2-437d-8b38-4939732244f5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Techniques for Interpretable Machine Learning
|
1a949396-c2eb-4f0c-aae0-40265e8a9f39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beliefs as emotional strategies
In “Crony Beliefs”, Kevin Simler suggests the analogy of beliefs as employees in a company, who may be hired to carry out different tasks. “Meritorious” ones, he suggests, are in the business of accurately modeling the world, whereas “crony” employees are there just to win favor from ot... |
4303c4f2-e0ad-44c7-807b-005929334ba4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aspie toy: the Neocube
This post is going to sound like an ad. Sorry about that. I'm not affiliated, etc, etc.
Last Friday I bought a very simple toy: a set of 216 little magnetic metal balls, about the size of ball bearings. Since then I've been completely entranced by it and unable to put the thing down. Here's a F... |
342316a9-1788-4ac7-84bf-4c27a77ba420 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Berkeley Monthly Meetup, June 11th, 7:00 PM
Hey all!
The monthly Berkeley meetup will be held at 3045 Shattuck Avenue, two blocks east of the Ashby BART station. It's a 3 story building with apartments on the top 2 floors and a large open commercial space on the bottom. The Singularity Institute has rented the commer... |
6e798d3a-4bae-4e74-8dbb-3f793931446f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dec 2019 gwern.net newsletter
None |
92d3f5d8-51ab-4bc0-896b-77eb5b8395ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Optimization
Today's post, Optimization was originally published on 13 September 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A discussion of the concept of optimization.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series,... |
d56678db-8bf6-48e4-b9f1-eb0d82973d35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Bounded Distrust
Response To (Scott Alexander): Bounded Distrust
Would that it were that simple.
There is a true and important core idea at the center of Bounded Distrust.
You can (and if you are wise, you often do) have an individual, institution or other information source that you absolutely do not trust to r... |
6b782e9b-c648-4616-b199-1455e4dcb4af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has anyone used TAPs to combat BFRBs?
BFRB=body focused repetitive behavior such as skin picking or hair pulling. What were your TAPs? Did you experience remission, and how did you handle that?
I managed to stop my BFRB in a few months ago using a multi-dimensional strategy, but I’ve had a few close calls with recurr... |
e70534d2-d6dc-4ccd-b100-5b7b05033867 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | 13 Very Different Stances on AGI
*Epistemic Status: Quickly written (~4 hours), uncertain. AGI policy isn't my field, don't take me to be an expert in it.*
*This was originally posted to Facebook* [*here*](https://www.facebook.com/ozzie.gooen/posts/10165753083350363)*, where it had some discussion. Also, see* [*this... |
2bf1d00a-05b3-43dc-a1ed-df516a1dae1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An onion strategy for AGI discussion
Cross-posted from my blog.
"The stabilization of environments" is a paper about AIs that reshape their environments to make it easier to achieve their goals. This is typically called enforcement, but they prefer the term stabilization because it "sounds less hostile."
"I'll open ... |
3f0e35fb-cec3-44c6-94a1-639bb5503b36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review—The Origins of Unfairness: Social Categories and Cultural Evolution
On my secret ("secret") blog, I reviewed a book about the cultural evolutionary game theory of gender! I thought I'd share the link on this website, because you guys probably like game theory?? (~2400 words) |
45e0b096-6683-4f8c-b032-6a7a37b5e33a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Extended Deadline: Jan 23rd] Announcing the PIBBSS Summer Research Fellowship
> *What can we learn from biological and social systems about designing beneficial AI systems?*
>
>
We are pleased to introduce the **PIBBSS summer research fellowship**.
*Principles of Intelligent Behavior in Biological and Social ... |
b13dd57a-bcd3-4cf3-87f6-0830a5c0e6dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Individually incentivized safe Pareto improvements in open-source bargaining
Summary
Agents might fail to peacefully trade in high-stakes negotiations. Such bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, and AI flash wars. This post is a distillation of DiGiovanni et al. (2024... |
c56fc408-53fc-4db9-962e-b99a5fd29678 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Philosophy as low-energy approximation
In 2015, Scott Alexander wrote a post originally titled High Energy Ethics. The idea is that when one uses an extreme thought experiment in ethics (people dying, incest, the extinction of humanity, etc.), this is like smashing protons together at the speed of light at the LHC - a... |
6dc335ea-3988-41b6-aabf-7c16482c0875 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It Is Untenable That Near-Future AI Scenario Models Like “AI 2027” Don't Include Open Source AI
Note: This post is the second in a broader series of posts about the difficult tradeoffs inherent in public access to powerful open source models (the first post is here). While this post highlights some dangers of open mod... |
13ba2ee3-e12a-4793-b53b-b63fdc4fa09e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Neural Networks Generalise, and Why They Are (Kind of) Bayesian
Currently, we do not have a good theoretical understanding of how or why neural networks actually work. For example, we know that large neural networks are sufficiently expressive to compute almost any kind of function. Moreover, most functions that f... |
9ac5cd33-a2a0-400b-acd3-b562875e1d6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paradigm-building: Introduction
John Wentworth has described the current phase of AGI safety research as preparadigmatic—that is (courtesy of the APA), “a science at a [very early] stage of development, before it has achieved a paradigm and established a consensus about the true nature of the subject matter and how to... |
07ea20c7-a22c-49c3-b0a4-b42739340ceb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Willpower Is All In Your Head
The authors find that ego depletion is lessened if you believe that willpower is not a limited resource. Abstract:
> Building cognitive abilities often requires sustained engagement with effortful tasks. We demonstrate that beliefs about willpower–whether willpower is viewed as a ... |
71ba1a59-c978-4a6b-921c-71908f7cbf49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The different kinds of confidence
Hello! This is my first ever LessWrong post!
The following is extracted from a conversation I had with DaystarEld on Facebook, and I have his permission to share it on LessWrong.
----------------------------------------
tl;dr: Personal skills you can be confident about can be broke... |
29c72594-79db-41d6-a359-17690f83b2d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are (Motor)sports like F1 a good thing to calibrate estimates against?
Today a trend broke in Formula One. Max Verstappen didn't win a Grand Prix. Of the last 35 Formula One Grand Prix, Max Verstappen has won all but 5. Last season he had something like 86% dominance.
For context I believe that I am overall pessimis... |
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