id stringlengths 36 36 | source stringclasses 15
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d8bfe129-16c9-4fc6-a432-c8b336cc2839 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | The reals (constructed as Dedekind cuts) form a field
The real numbers, when [constructed as Dedekind cuts](https://arbital.com/p/50g) over the [rationals](https://arbital.com/p/4zq), form a [field](https://arbital.com/p/481).
We shall often write the one-sided [Dedekind cut](https://arbital.com/p/dedekind_cut) $(A, ... |
7db19a6b-708d-41bd-b4e1-f4bc4ca8d472 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-Akrasia Technique: Structured Procrastination
This idea has been mentioned in several comments, but it deserves a top-level post. From an ancient, ancient web article (1995!), Stanford philosophy professor John Perry writes:
> I have been intending to write this essay for months. Why am I finally doing it? Beca... |
68fbcbf8-3244-4798-9b0b-c776227c4ba0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming
I was considering splitting off my analysis of the effectiveness of Pfizer’s Paxlovid, a new Covid-19 treatment pill, but it’s so straightforward there’s no reason to do that. It works, with our best guess being it is 89% effective at preventing hospitalization a... |
cd1ab3fa-125f-4e82-a3f2-baea9d4e3458 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Iqisa: A Library For Handling Forecasting Datasets
cross-posted from niplav.github.io
> Iqisa is a library for handling and comparing forecasting datasets from different platforms.
Iqisa: A Library For Handling Forecasting Datasets
> The eventual success of my archives reinforced my view that public permission-less... |
9bba3d90-1e63-4d02-9c25-9fbf822ff9f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The LessWrong Team
LessWrong Core Team
Oliver Habryka / habryka
> Oliver Habryka is the current project lead for LessWrong.com, where he tries to build infrastructure for making intellectual progress on global catastrophic risks, cause prioritization and the art of rationality. He used to work at the Centre for Effe... |
d90d606a-443c-475c-8832-95bc0b68d3ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stop Using Discord as an Archive
/u/djarogames, on the /r/SlateStarCodex subreddit, recently wrote this esssay.
Basically, if you've used Discord for any rationality-community, AI-safety, or Effective-Altruism discussions, you've probably noticed that important, tacit knowledge ends up buried in the giant chronologic... |
fcec548d-d032-45f9-be74-48716c5d8bf4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Evaluating and Understanding the Robustness of Adversarial Logit Pairing
1 Contributions
----------------
For summary, the contributions of this note are as follows:
1. 1.
Robustness: Under the white-box targeted attack threat
model specified in [Kannan et al.](#bib.bib9) , we upper bound the correct classificat... |
9d15bf69-1510-4d2e-b485-01112bbba3ae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Metaethics and Normative Ethics of AGI Value Alignment: Many Questions, Some Implications
(first [published](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sSWMWkiAHRdDdPrWN/the-metaethics-and-normative-ethics-of-agi-value-alignment) on the EA Forum)
Short Summary
=============
This is a commentated research agenda o... |
324154e7-06c9-4763-92d1-8a50dbfa7c7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anxiety and computer architecture
Computer architecture seems like a great analogy for some of the anxiety that I feel.
Call stack fatigue
From Call stacks in everyday life
> For example, before writing this article I was getting my dog ready for a walk.
>
> But then I realized that the kitchen needed to be cleane... |
3b5f5152-ad48-426f-bed0-3bee7db6194e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | P(C) vs. NP(C)
A discussion of priorities, crossposted from my Substack.
So.
PC vs. NPC.
PC means playable character. Active participant. Read-write. Can affect and/or achieve outcomes.
NPC means non-playable character. Inactive participant. Read-only. Can share useful information that helps other people affect/ac... |
848ce893-3ae9-4556-8239-173fff952dd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My first year in AI alignment
2022 was a pretty surprising year for me. In the beginning, I had just finished going through the Recurse Center retreat, and was expecting to go back into software engineering. As it turned out, I spent almost all of it getting increasingly committed to working on technical AI alignment ... |
58f2328b-4c19-42c1-bb50-faedf1c1e48e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #92]: Learning good representations with contrastive predictive coding
Newsletter #92
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that... |
0f362772-10a2-43c3-8c62-6dfa5c7f6c85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Pittsburgh Rats [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequently... |
3b545219-2108-4717-a8d6-e0a1c2eb3a23 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3207
Transparency is vital for ML-type approaches to AI alignment, and is also an important part of agent foundations research. In this post, we lay out an agenda for formalizing transparency which we'll call the Optimization Provenance Agenda. In particular, the goal is to create a notion of transparency stro... |
d1b7711f-1852-4964-a722-05abc1e45db9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Citizenship in a Republic
This is a transcript of a speech I gave many years ago in Paris.
----------------------------------------
Strange and impressive associations rise in the mind of a man from the New World who speaks before this august body in this ancient institution of learning. Before his eyes pass the sha... |
7377556b-99a1-43a6-9f8f-db9dcdef5fad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Problems facing a correspondence theory of knowledge
Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome financial support to make further posts like this possible.
Epistemic status: These ideas are still being developed.
----------------------------------------
Outline
* I am interested in recognizing enti... |
9d8abc3b-9d56-4898-bf20-823ec1b87df3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Managing Loss of Control as Many Militaries Pursue Technological Superiority
JUNE 2018TECHNOLOGY ROULETTE
Managing Loss of Control as Many Militaries Pursue
Technological Superiority
Richard Danzig
About the Author
RICHARD DANZIG is a Senior Fellow at
the Johns Hopkins University Applied
Physics Laboratory. He was... |
001210a6-621d-47a6-a2c8-0eac5e20166a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on January 22nd. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Baltimore Area: Epistemology of Disagreement: 24 January 2016 03:00PM
* Cologne meetup: 23 January 2016 05:00PM
* European Community Weekend: ... |
418a220e-19c0-42e9-8214-2b6040190932 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Universal Inductors
Now that the Logical Induction paper is out, I am directing my attention towards decision theory. The approach I currently think will be most fruitful is attempting to make a logically updateless version of Wei Dai's Updateless Decision Theory. Abram Demski has posted on here about this, but I thin... |
5342fa02-301a-4120-ac12-06d5a765d608 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI Self Improvement - Computerphile
the stamp collecting machine we talked
about last time is a physical
impossibility effectively because it has
a perfect model of reality or an
extremely good model of reality that we
just gave it by specifying it it looks
through every possible sequence of
output data within a year ... |
86eb97d3-2ecd-4675-af50-5b64cb27fe6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Sun Room
I'm walking to work with a large coffee in hand. It is cold, and I am happy.
Because I am in the sun room.
I bring a task onto my mental desk. Considerations, insights, possibilities start spilling from it immediately with no effort required.
I seem to have micro thoughts within larger ones. Little jok... |
89aae684-9d41-4f51-b780-1a6228447722 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some people just won't get it
This is a link post for https://amirbolous.com/posts/advice
* Introduction
* Heuristics for Good Advice
* Closing Thoughts
Introduction
The counterintuitive thing about advice is that although it can be incredibly useful, it can also do more harm than good. Advice is a double-edged ... |
620177be-1b36-497f-afdb-b155489ff29c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | PPO-CMA: Proximal Policy Optimization with Covariance Matrix Adaptation
1 Introduction
---------------
This paper proposes a new solution to the problem of policy optimization with high-dimensional continuous state and action spaces. This is a problem that has a long history in computer animation, robotics, and mac... |
beb3dc97-20e1-482a-9e27-2ba8e35608df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Saying no to the Appleman
Today I was overhearing an interesting conversation between my father and a door-to-door salesperson. It was interesting to witness the inability of my father to say no, and the tactics that the salesperson used. Nobody knew that I was listening.
My father tried to tell that salesperson no p... |
a0ba1d11-18e2-4636-a593-5bff43129437 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ingroup
Ingroup is such a fantastic community. You guys are the best. You aren't bad, like those icky people in outgroup who lack our special characteristics.
I could just go on and on about how uniquely valuable and worthy of appreciation we are, individually, and together, but I bet you guys understand what I'm try... |
15da8127-aadf-44f4-9dd0-043758124986 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If AI starts to end the world, is suicide a good idea?
For a while I’ve thought to myself that if AI starts to obviously end the world I would just commit suicide, mainly to avoid any potential s-riskiness. But I’ve become far less certain recently that that would be a good idea.
Between the possibility of resurrect... |
4079c825-00ca-410e-bd24-77177212de18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Toward a general structure of economic explanation
I got some very good comments on this post (thank you all!), which have focused the analysis of the difficulty-of-analysis of bureaucracy on issues relating to imprecise, incomplete, and ambiguous incentives, and selection effects or a lack thereof. I think all of thi... |
60d83d47-296a-42a4-894d-a15d6d47f712 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weight by Impact
There’s an old idea in decision theory that I want to explore some nuances of. I don't think any of this is original to me. I assume basic familiarity with manipulating probability distributions and calculating expected values, but feel free to ask questions about that.
Decision-making under uncertai... |
8dec1b62-b684-462c-9342-bf19aa937b6d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Optimization daemons
If you subject a dynamic system to a *large* amount of optimization pressure, it can turn into an optimizer or even an intelligence. The classic example would be how natural selection, in the course of extensively optimizing DNA to construct organisms that replicated the DNA, in one case pushed h... |
c52450d4-eb61-4824-b887-96c722d46e71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There are transparent monsters in the world - part 1
EA Forum cross-post
This is Rational Animations' script for the video linked above. Past feedback on the EA Forum has been helpful, so I encourage you to give your opinions in the comments. Between the video about longtermism and this one, we also published a vi... |
ed44d32f-2d4e-4c38-b1f5-9b8072972f35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on a possible solution to Pascal's Mugging
For those who aren't familiar, Pascal's Mugging is a simple thought experiment that seems to demonstrate an intuitive flaw in naive expected utility maximization. In the classic version, someone walks up to you on the street, and says, 'Hi, I'm an entity outside you... |
b945e4e8-f364-40d2-8dc0-2169417ad925 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quis cancellat ipsos cancellores?
This post was linked in Occupational Infohazards. I don't know to what extent its claims are true or false, but it's worth having a place on LessWrong to discuss the claims that doesn't mix with all the other claims from jessicata's post. |
da42e480-0e2b-4dd9-88e7-12ff083ebf18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Frankfurt
Discussion article for the meetup : Frankfurt
WHEN: 25 May 2014 02:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Frankfurt
Another meetup! Location still unclear, contact our mailing list for more information. You can find our mailing list on the list of LW meetups.
Discussion article for the meetup : Frankfurt |
08b71f0f-1f4e-4c2f-8518-6ba847801353 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Paper] Stress-testing capability elicitation with password-locked models
The paper is by Ryan Greenblatt, Fabien Roger, Dmitrii Krasheninnikov and David Krueger. This post was written by Fabien and Ryan, and may not reflect the views of Dmitrii and David.
Scheming models might try to perform less capably than they a... |
0ec7f9d3-a652-4dec-a602-9460fa06ac29 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | From the "weird math questions" department...
Here's something I've been wondering about, in the context of Solomonoff induction and uncomputable sequences.
I have a device that is either a halting oracle, or an ordinary Turing machine which gives the correct answer to the halting problem for all programs smaller tha... |
8c8d2268-1b76-43eb-b3af-bae86da53638 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Defecting On Yourself
Sometimes I get into an anxious frame of mind where I try to prep for something as if my memory, my past self, cannot be trusted. This feels like an epistemically virtuous way to prepare for the world: double-checking all your past work and preparations as if they were made by someone you don'... |
11749660-a768-426b-80c3-52730c7f288d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reframing misaligned AGI's: well-intentioned non-neurotypical assistants
I think when people imagine misaligned AGI's, they tend to imagine a superintelligent agent optimizing for something other than human values (e.g. paperclips, or a generic reward signal), and mentally picture them as adversarial or malevolent. I ... |
a9516948-bcc8-4058-a718-10baf8623fae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Healthy Competition
A few years ago, the rationalsphere was small, and it was hard to get funding to run even one organization. Spinning up a second one with the same focus area might have risked killing the first one.
By now, I think we have the capacity (financial, coordinational and human-talent-wise) that that's ... |
bc54f28f-a9d2-4a09-96b9-ef87eea71f68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Breaking Rank (Calibration Game)
Published on LW with permission from Ben Orlin. Originally published in the book Math Games with Bad Drawings, which is includes many more fun math games, all thoughtfully wrote up like below. And also more silly doodles, which I have not reproduced here - get the book for the full exp... |
fb3b006a-6086-4fb3-9713-b127c07f923c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Questions about the NY Megameetup
I don't have a confirmation that I have space, and I don't know what the location is. Some other people in Philadelphia don't have the information, either.
I'm handling this publicly because we might not be the only ones who need the information. |
12662c51-d21d-4f4a-9b76-a0f60823446a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Emerging Paradigms: The Case of Artificial Intelligence Safety
*Note: This is a paper I wrote as part of a philosophy of science graduate seminar. At the moment, I consider it a work in progress and welcome constructive feedback.*
**1. Introduction**
This paper closely examines the nascent field of artificial int... |
6bb40eea-341f-4bf1-a8fe-89e8ba496a98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Localized theories and conditional complexity
Suppose I hand you a series of data points without providing the context. Consider the theory v = a*t for t<<1, v = b for t>>1. Without knowing anything a priori about the shapes of the curves, one must have enough data to make sure that v follows the right lines at the tw... |
fbe85334-5559-4f22-98bc-47caa8efb83f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Model-based RL, Desires, Brains, Wireheading
Summary
=======
I’m very interested in [model-based RL as a framework for how people might build AGI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zzXawbXDwCZobwF9D/my-agi-threat-model-misaligned-model-based-rl-agent), in large part because [I think that human intelligence is built fro... |
dcfe17b2-0060-4bab-8769-0676f32e9859 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "There’s not a great way to convey the merciless relentlessness of having a child who insists on continuing to exist and want and need regardless of how much sleep you got, how sick you are, how many times you have already read that book, how tired your arms or how aching your feet, how hungry or sweaty or needy-for-co... |
0bf1bde5-fcd7-40a6-a069-325abf613bcb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Atlanta, Austin, Melbourne, Pittsburgh
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Next Atlanta Less Wrong Meetup: 10 December 2011 06:00PM
* Pittsburgh Holiday Meetup: 16 December 2011 08:00PM
* Is there anybody from Indianapolis here?: 08 January 2012 02:00PM
* First Bru... |
86be0ef4-0f70-419f-b391-c841f584d748 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is There a Power Play Overhang?
This post is about risks in the development of increasingly capable AI, in particular the risk of losing control to AI and extinction risk. I'll suggest that a key question is, "When do we need to take this kind of risk seriously?"
We'll look at the issue of 'agency overhang', which su... |
06ae1deb-0bb1-4893-a7ad-b3f142371cb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | P: 0 <= P <= 1
Part of The Contrarian Sequences.
Reply to infinite certainty and 0 and 1 are not probabilities.
Introduction
In infinite certainty, Eliezer makes the argument that you can't ever be absolutely sure of a proposition. That is an argument I disagreed with for a long time, but due to ... |
6260a26b-3936-47b8-b9da-ea2e1c328e30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Generalizing Foundations of Decision Theory II
As promised in the previous post, I develop my formalism for justifying as many of the decision-theoretic axioms as possible with generalized dutch-book arguments. (I'll use the term "generalized dutch-book" to refer to arguments with a family resemblance to dutch-book or... |
f92570f4-a5d2-4ab4-9dbb-bf8d7fd23028 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 'Governing Superintelligence' - Synthetic Pathogens, The Tree of Thoughts Paper and Self-Awareness
two documents released in the last few
days including one just this morning
show that the top AGI labs are trying
hard to visualize human life coexisting
with a super intelligence in this video
I want to cover wh... |
d4467a64-f411-4884-87fc-c9f8fdc2bf01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Crosspost) Asking for online calls on AI s-risks discussions
（Sorry for posting this if it disturbed you. I posted it here to enable more people to see this.） I'm Jack, a 16-year-old boy living in Taiwan, so I haven't met any EA people in person. I'm interested in(AI) s-risks, but I'm an AI outsider, I think EA peop... |
f7cca9e9-528b-418a-83be-524807425ef7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Rational Identity
How facts backfire (previous discussion) discusses the phenomenon where correcting people's mistaken beliefs about political issues doesn't actually make them change their minds. In fact, telling them the truth about things might even reinforce their opinions and entrench them even firmer in their ... |
bee51f38-6028-4b2a-be35-b5546b013a6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI for Bio: State Of The Field
AI for biotech, particularly with drug discovery applications, has been used for more than a decade, with ambiguous success. But in the era of foundation models we may have experienced a step change in what’s possible.
I used to work on AI-for-drug-discovery years ago, at Recursion, whe... |
ac00c3bf-14bf-485a-8f45-c8fedb770873 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Discovering Language Model Behaviors with Model-Written Evaluations
“[Discovering Language Model Behaviors with Model-Written Evaluations](https://www.anthropic.com/model-written-evals.pdf)” is a new Anthropic paper by Ethan Perez et al. that I (Evan Hubinger) also collaborated on. I think the results in this paper ar... |
4ca6100f-d36b-4a75-9cbd-f54d3325c8f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Real AI Safety Risk Is a Conceptual Exploit: Anthropomorphism
Subtitle: We've misaligned not the models, but our minds.
----------------------------------------
Introduction
The greatest risk from current AI systems isn’t sentience, intelligence, or agency. It’s our persistent belief that those things are alrea... |
a8a6020e-c9a6-4811-846e-4c064f1559ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What literature on the neuroscience of decision making can you recommend?
|
3d64ffbb-1a76-4a94-b14b-19d996faa33d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A taxonomy of Oracle AIs
Sources: An old draft on Oracle AI from Daniel Dewey, conversation with Dewey and Nick Beckstead. See also [Thinking Inside the Box](http://www.aleph.se/papers/oracleAI.pdf) and [Leakproofing the Singularity](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/2012-yampolskiy.pdf).
Can we just create an Ora... |
b803e324-3b28-4269-a993-3319ca6ec6b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The best curriculum for every goal
In the fine tradition of Best Textbook, Best Software and Best Visualization:
For our purposes a curriculum is one or more discrete resources (website, book, article, tutorial, whatevs) plus one or more goal-states, such as acquiring or practicing a new skill, learning about a subje... |
d404dc9a-3fef-4e78-95d0-cb73af10e4a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Occam's Razor, Complexity of Verbal Descriptions, and Core Concepts
Occam's razor, as it is popularly known, states that "the simplest answer is most likely to be correct"1. It has been noted in other discussion threads that the phrase "simplest description" is somewhat misleading, and that it actually means somethin... |
9bcd277d-6b49-48be-9680-470c16bd199f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Echo Fallacy
One of my Facebook friend posted this. Sharing anonymously with permission.
> The Echo Fallacy: When you shout "hello!" in a cave, and upon hearing the echo, conclude the cave walls are saying "hello" to you. More generally, when you put a certain idea into your environment, have it reflected back to... |
691ee70c-9b31-4bf8-8690-c113b61bc191 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the connection between these two definitions of ascription universality?
Definition A:
> a system is ascription universal if, relative to our current epistemic state, its explicit beliefs contain just as much information as any other way of ascribing beliefs to it.
Definition B:
> a family of question-answe... |
5e8ee2c7-430b-41b2-bb7c-385971ec8c57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Taxonomy of Weirdness
To begin, here is is a story of Weirdness Points spent unwisely.
In elementary school, my mother would come in on occasion to lecture us on art and art history. The task one day was family portraits: specifically, caricatures of our close family members that expressed their respective persona... |
59b1df73-593a-4fcb-8bb6-ec46079d3501 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Housing and Transit Thoughts #1
Housing is the Balsa-style area where there has been the most progress lately. There seems to be growing consensus that it is vital we build more housing in places that people want to live. California is making serious attempts to force localities to do exactly that, here in New York we... |
c2780b54-7b11-40eb-a497-2e62368e4762 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Comprehensive guide to Bayes' Rule
Click below to start reading! |
3b33472c-c2c1-41ee-b529-a5fdf5d4e4b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI Alignment in AI Trustworthy
in this short video i will be talking
about how the ai trustworthy problem
is an ai alignment problem and
demonstrate three aspects
that ai alignment must adopt to make
trustworthy ai
possible now before talking about ai
let's first do a thought experiment on
the trustworthiness between ... |
aabb3f99-9fde-4004-b272-c084c4233a8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT-2030 and Catastrophic Drives: Four Vignettes
I previously discussed the capabilities we might expect from future AI systems, illustrated through GPT2030, a hypothetical successor of GPT-4 trained in 2030. GPT2030 had a number of advanced capabilities, including superhuman programming, hacking, and persuasion skill... |
cc048ae1-4524-48b9-bb38-11dba9230990 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wolf and Rabbit
Rabbit said to Wolf, "I shall make a new animal. It shall stand on two legs and run free across meadows and mountains."
Wolf said, "I will send large beasts to eat your new animal."
Rabbit said, "My animal shall band together and fight off even large beasts. They shall travel together to stay safe."
... |
af607211-3bea-4481-8cc9-be170203744b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Primary Perceptive Systems
Epistemic status: This post touches on bodywork, NLP, Salsa and Yoga. I went through a 4-year training in Danis Bois style of bodywork, have roughly 70 seminar days worth of NLP training, and started dancing Salsa back in 2008 and have danced it a lot since then. I don't have special experti... |
a29016e7-1e7b-424e-ab13-de0cc72cbb94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Increasing Demandingness in EA
In thinking about what it means to lead a good life, people often struggle with the question of how much is enough: how much does our morality demand of us? People have given a wide range of answers to this question, but effective altruism has historically used "giving 10%". Yes, it's be... |
c91f1165-a389-4bcc-91e3-522d00102aec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning in layers of muscle memory
The key to mastering any complex skill is to learn it in layers - only progressing to the next layer when the previous has become muscle memory.
Have you ever driven from one place to another on "autopilot"? Have you ever caught a ball without thinking? Have you ever completely for... |
8646219c-351e-4df1-85f8-c60fe84d1607 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Should people build productizations of open source AI models?
In early 2021, before I had developed any opinions on AI safety, my startup cofounder and I were contacted by a group of people who wanted an alternative to an AI CYOA platform, AIDungeon. They were frustrated with the site's current management and especial... |
c0c78db6-1f8d-45a0-98d8-50432073bec1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Argument Screens Off Authority
Scenario 1: Barry is a famous geologist. Charles is a fourteen-year-old juvenile delinquent with a long arrest record and occasional psychotic episodes. Barry flatly asserts to Arthur some counterintuitive statement about rocks, and Arthur judges it 90% probable. Then Charles makes an eq... |
a53336aa-4840-4d18-a55b-bbcc7b2df2f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Saskatoon
This summary was posted to LW main on August 9th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Saskatoon's First Meetup!: 17 August 2013 01:00PM
Other irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* A... |
170cec4f-cd8a-4930-9521-c63bdadd04c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Happiness Is a Chore
|
1b2e92d7-9a48-4b10-8da1-4c9333d6d2ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread April 23 - 29, 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
94d20328-4ca9-4829-b39e-4a1d7ed766d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: My Hidden Chimp
tl;dr: A narrowly framed introduction to dual process theory for ~5-10 years olds.
I love a dual process theory metaphor as much as the next rationalist (researching this post I came across King Louie and the Apes which I quite like). The Blue minimising robot series completely changed ho... |
9c21b237-4368-4981-9c98-f1aab9790bf4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could We Automate AI Alignment Research?
Summary
* Creating an AI that can do AI alignment research (an automated alignment researcher) is one part of OpenAI’s three-part alignment plan and a core goal of their Superalignment team.
* The automated alignment researcher will probably involve an advanced language model... |
608902be-805e-40a7-a571-127fe26eb349 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introduction Thread: May 2009
If you've just joined the Less Wrong community, here's a space for you to tell us a bit about yourself, and perhaps test the waters on any subjects you'd like to discuss with us. You might also want to check our welcome page. Glad to have you with us =) |
dc50ba7c-5b06-414a-81a3-5266c9fe21d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] A Case Study of Motivated Continuation
Today's post, A Case Study of Motivated Continuation was originally published on 31 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> When you find yourself considering a problem in which all visible options are uncomfortable, making a choice is difficult. Grit ... |
7ce5543b-83bd-42db-85f7-56719e28a7f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Name of the fallacy of assuming an extreme value (e.g. 0) with the illusion of 'avoiding to have to make an assumption'?
In a model, often people have the intuition that removing a transformation is 'removing the need for assuming a particular value', while in reality, it simply means they are imposing a trivial/extre... |
effebc5e-2c91-465c-ae18-02d5f63e5800 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Daniel Dewey: The Open Philanthropy Project's work on potential risks from advanced AI
---
*In this 2017 talk,* [*Daniel Dewey*](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/team/daniel-dewey) *presents Open Philanthropy Project's work and thinking on advanced artifical intelligence. He also gives an overview over the fiel... |
63ec405e-dd8a-4000-842b-f162ba9f7cfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Requesting armchair analysis of Google's strategy
(Disclaimer: I've been working at Google for about a month now. This post is on my behalf, not my employer's. Also it will not contain any secret information.)
Larry Page, one of the original founders of Google, recently came back as CEO and immediately declared that ... |
70e654b3-d5a2-4e6d-91d9-1e72e7b5a24e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantified Self recommendations
Is self knowledge through numbers worth the effort? I welcome your stories and recommendations. Thanks! |
769f2b73-03ca-47ee-a14c-82e7bef60f5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 28 June 2015 03:00:00AM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery
We'll be congregating at the courtyard of the National Portrait Gallery from 3:00 - 3:30 until closing.
We'll be meeting to play games and/... |
83c5579a-f077-47fd-972e-7733d54b7929 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any LessWrong readers at the University of Michigan?
I'm interested in gauging interest in a LessWrong group at UM -- probably a Facebook group, as opposed to an official University club. |
9054ea4d-f93b-46c8-b2bb-5ae0a544caea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: Glial cells shown to be involved in working memory
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=marijuana-reveals-memory-mechanism
I wonder what the implications are for brain preservation and whole brain emulation? If glial cells are important, then saving and emulating the neurons alone probably won't be ... |
9802babd-bc33-49e7-a6ee-c463d8a7444f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How humanity would respond to slow takeoff, with takeaways from the entire COVID-19 pandemic
While there have been some posts on how a slow takeoff would occur given humanity's response to COVID, they were written during the crisis, rather than it's end to get a full account of what would likely happen.
I will be ta... |
a1a2df8c-2377-4e47-a7af-e65ea6525682 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow meet up
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow meet up
WHEN: 06 July 2014 02:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Attention! Time is changed, we gather at 14:00!
We will have:
* Chips announcement
* Short reports about cognitive biases
* Concepts decoupling, repo... |
ef18fd1f-9b59-47fd-b03c-d283d6ee979b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How long can you watch this video?
I found this video on youtube. It's a supposedly scientific proof of God's existence, and the guy does have a vague understanding of several scientific principles (such as the multiverse) but his ignorance of atheism is very abrasive. I personally got a little past half-way through. |
4b5aecbb-f958-4f5d-abac-d3e9297c4297 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why it took so long to do the Fermi calculation right?
This is a meta-level followup to an object level post about Dissolving the Fermi Paradox.
The basic observation of the paper is that when the statistics is done correctly to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, the paradox largely dissolves.
The cor... |
5ccece1f-56d9-420b-9f29-c1c72ec340dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-Elevated Air Purifiers
Last year for Christmas gatherings at my dad's house I put together wall-mounted filter cubes, to get them up and out of the way. This time around this seemed like too much hassle, so I put one together on top of the piano, one in a bookcase, and used one commercial purifier:
It's doub... |
37cb7f53-a4a9-41cf-9496-48460f925d1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where do LessWrong rationalists debate?
There are a few places where rationalists debate on internet outside of Less Wrong. Sometimes those places were created for debates that do not belong to the LW website, such as politics or investing. Sometimes they were created for a specific subgroup of rationalists, for examp... |
2dfd0698-bdaa-4a80-b447-0f2464688d7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What It's Like to Notice Things
Phenomenology
Phenomenology is the study of the structures of experience and consciousness. Literally, it is the study of "that which appears". The first time you look at a twig sticking up out of the water, you might be curious and ask, "What forces cause things to bend when placed in ... |
f8c406ee-600e-44ca-9f96-2997758b164d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Modulating sycophancy in an RLHF model via activation steering
*Produced as part of the* [*SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program*](https://serimats.org/) *- Summer 2023 Cohort, under the mentorship of Evan Hubinger. Thanks to Alex Turner for his feedback and ideas.*
This is a follow-up post to ["Reducing sycophan... |
6c510795-a3c9-4451-8a4c-9d3c179b3b35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Survey: What's the most negative*plausible cryonics-works story that you know?
Warning: people will be trying to be pessimistic here. Don't read this if you don't want to be reminded of scary outcomes.
Request: if you get an idea that you think might be too scary to post publicly even under the above warning, but yo... |
abd1d266-da82-43b7-911c-19c1fc5d5125 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropical Paradoxes are Paradoxes of Probability Theory
This is the fourth post in my series on Anthropics. The previous one is Anthropical probabilities are fully explained by difference in possible outcomes. The next one is Another Non-Anthropic Paradox: The Unsurprising Rareness of Rare Events.
Introduction
If ... |
e512d6bf-90f9-4604-9103-76f05431b020 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | David Deutsch on How To Think About The Future
http://vimeo.com/22099396
What do people think of this, from a Bayesian perspective?
It is a talk given to the Oxford Transhumanists. Their previous speaker was Eliezer Yudkowsky. Audio version and past talks here: http://groupspaces.com/oxfordtranshumanists/pages/past-... |
4b2f1765-82cb-4aa8-bd78-8c1503743fba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 08 February 2015 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Clarendon Metro
Attention: the location of this week's meetup has changed. Details below.
This week, we will be meeting at a private residence in Northern Virgin... |
be66e5f1-f2c3-42bd-8e1f-6c34cf1bc0d8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI #2
#### **Table of Contents**
I had reports last week that the table of content links were failing for some users, I believe those on Safari. Right now I don’t know of a sufficiently quick alternative that fixes this issue, but am open to suggestions.
1. Executive Summary
2. [Market Perspectives](https://thezvi... |
0f6f33b4-561e-4e5a-8420-4c950a005992 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Representing and Aggregating Conflicting Beliefs
1 Introduction
---------------
We are interested in the multi-agent setting where agents are informed
by sources of varying levels of reliability, and where agents can
iteratively combine their belief states. This setting introduces three
problems: (1) Finding an app... |
4f482b85-ca23-45e5-8b20-bd321dc9bcb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An outline of an ironic LessWrong post
1. Introduction: A character is considering whether or not to join the community of LessWrong, an online rationality-focused group.
2. The pros and cons of joining LessWrong: On the one hand, the character will gain access to a wealth of knowledge and resources on how to think... |
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