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5572f229-eaac-4eef-b461-1d2fd61e6181 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epiphenomenal Oracles Ignore Holes in the Box
Background: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI
Epistemic status: Likely wrong, but I don't know how. I'm not a 'real' FAI researcher, just an LW reader inspired by the Alignment Prize to try to start contributing.
(At minimum I'm heavily indebted to Stuart Armstro... |
b2741433-0cf5-4777-985b-705a9db7f43c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SlateStarCodex online meetup: Integrating evolutionary psychology and behaviorism
Dr. Diana Fleischman will talk on integrating evolutionary psychology and behaviorism.
Sunday, September 27 at 20:30 IDT, 17:30 UTC, 10:30 PDT
Sign up here and we'll send you a link to the online meetup https://forms.gle/EJ9YxDvEPUT1Yk... |
0e97b6da-627c-40b5-abc5-7f3bea87b4a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Improve Field Cryonics
I just read this article (which is well worth reading for anyone interested in cryonics). One of the important things that the article points out is that, while it takes some time for the memory structures of the brain to degrade due to ischemia, one of the more rapid effects is blood cl... |
ddee9e26-7fd0-41b9-ae9c-d739f8a04913 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Manifold market notice: Binance
Probably someone on LessWrong has money on Binance, being the largest cryptocurrency exchange. I'd like to draw their attention to the crime risk, and suggest they move the money elsewhere.
The CFTC has a lawsuit against both Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao ("CZ"). Whatever you... |
09dcd4a7-219a-490c-b028-509e25e439f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2014 iterated prisoner's dilemma tournament results
Followup to: Announcing the 2014 program equilibrium iterated PD tournament
In August, I announced an iterated prisoner's dilemma tournament in which bots can simulate each other before making a move. Eleven bots were submitted to the tournament. Today, I am pleased... |
d27b942e-9b20-4b04-a9f7-e662af74e1f0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Paul Rosenbloom on Cognitive Architectures
 Paul S. Rosenbloom is Professor of Computer Science at the University of Southern California and a project leader at USC’s Institute for Creative Technologies. He was a key mem... |
54f5beeb-0050-429a-8f5f-48dd8cdad880 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [linkpost] The Psychological Economy of Inaction by William Gillis
William Gillis is an excellent essayist, LessWrong amongst their influences, who doesn't post on LessWrong.
I wanted to open up a dialogue about their new essay to see what commenters here have to say, it's just under 2k words.
Gillis is a compelling... |
38cc800c-47f4-4904-b215-ab77d086e364 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI will drastically increase economies of scale
In Strategic implications of AIs’ ability to coordinate at low cost, I talked about the possibility that different AGIs can coordinate with each other much more easily than humans can, by doing something like merging their utility functions together. It now occurs to me... |
a3024e91-84a6-45a3-b4d2-902460dd0388 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PauseAI and E/Acc Should Switch Sides
In the debate over AI development, two movements stand as opposites: PauseAI calls for slowing down AI progress, and e/acc (effective accelerationism) calls for rapid advancement. But what if both sides are working against their own stated interests? What if the most rational st... |
27842ed8-0ad4-4d10-a7d8-5889821423bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do you mean by Pascal's mugging?
Some people[1] are now using the term Pascal's mugging as a label for any scenario with a large associated payoff and a small or unstable probability estimate, a combination that can trigger the absurdity heuristic.
Consider the scenarios listed below: (a) Do these scenarios have... |
431d5dab-8871-4ae0-a6d4-2b9b93fc13a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book a Time to Chat about Interp Research
In the spirit of the season, you can book a call with me to help w/ your interp project (no large coding though)
Would you like someone to:
1. Review your paper or code?
2. Brainstorm ideas on next steps?
3. How to best communicate your results?
4. Discuss conceptual pro... |
78cee7aa-fada-495b-b77b-94e0d50c7b9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Uniparental Disomy Tells Us About Improper Imprinting in Humans
TLDR
We do not yet understand all the genetic imprints that play an important role in early embryonic development. Known imprinting disorders (Prader-Willi, Angelman, etc.) however, do seem to cover all the most detrimental imprints, since for all ca... |
37064e1a-69e9-4cfb-a46b-851a76f6cc7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On 'Why Global Poverty?' and Arguments from Unobservable Impacts
Related: Is Molecular Nanotechnology "Scientific"?
For context, Jeff Kaufman delivered a speech on effective altruism and cause prioritization at EA Global 2015 entitled 'Why Global Poverty?', which he has transcribed and made available here. It's certa... |
a1331b25-143f-441f-9cbb-eb3d3236e6f0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Stability Effects of Arbitrage in Exchange Traded Funds: An Agent-Based Model.
Stability Effects of Arbitrage in Exchange Traded Funds: An
Agent-Based Model
Megan Shearer
University of Michigan–Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
shearerj@umich.eduDavid Byrd
Bowdoin College
Brunswick, Maine, USA
d.byrd@bowdoin.edu
Tuck... |
c7e67add-9e4e-4fc3-b6ef-8b196b006cb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | December 2014 Bragging Thread
Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be as blatantly proud of yourself as you feel. You may unabashedly consider yourself the coolest freaking person ever because of that awesome thing you'... |
af279e7c-e08c-4db4-9ab9-19571ecc3b77 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #170]: Analyzing the argument for risk from power-seeking AI
Listen to this newsletter on **[The Alignment Newsletter Podcast](http://alignment-newsletter.libsyn.com/)**.
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[re... |
f0ed5b1f-af23-464d-afa3-0c435655e482 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Twitter thread on postrationalists
I wrote the following as a thread on twitter. Kaj Sotala asked me to share it on LessWrong as well, so I have reproduced it here with minimal editing.
(If you are interested in my twitter content, but don't use twitter, I recommend reading it on threadreader. The user experience of ... |
763320ea-ad6e-4704-95f0-ff638b81ed67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Visual Babble and Prune
> How do human beings produce knowledge? When we describe rational thought processes, we tend to think of them as essentially deterministic, deliberate, and algorithmic. After some self-examination, however, I've come to think that my process is closer to babbling many random strings and later ... |
1ddaab5a-53cd-4863-b61c-551f32884a34 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Super-Exponential versus Exponential Growth in Compute Price-Performance
In recent months and years I have [seen](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gpu-price-performance) [sober](https://epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance#appendix-a---dropping-data-before-2006) [analyses](https://browse.arxiv.org/pdf/19... |
56947037-34d7-43a8-91d5-4abe1a99abc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropics in a Tegmark Multiverse
I believe that the execution of a certain computation is a necessary and sufficient condition for my conscious experience. Following Tegmark, by "execution" I don't refer to any notion of physical existence--I suspect that the mathematical possibility of my thoughts implies conscious... |
6ebc718d-1724-4f3d-8b6b-b87e7621a7ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I had reports last week that the table of content links were failing for some users, I believe those on Safari. Right now I don’t know of a sufficiently quick alternative that fixes this issue, but am open to suggestions.
1. Executive Summary
2. Market Perspectives
3. The Once and Futur... |
cc95220a-d7a1-40a1-91ab-356bcc39ab6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Update on Developing an Ethics Calculator to Align an AGI to
TL;DR: This is an update on my progress towards creating an “ethics calculator” that could be used to help align an AGI to act ethically. In its first iteration, the calculator uses a utilitarian framework with “utility” measured in terms of value as net “po... |
ae08b19a-d6cc-40e6-b8d6-706ed0f8c0b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lazy Python Argument Parsing
When I'm writing real Python programs I use argparse. When I'm writing quick scripts, I destructure sys.argv[1:]. For example:
width, depth, height = sys.argv[1:]
...
Or, if I need to import the file:
def start(width, depth, height):
...
if __name__ == '__main__':
start(*sys... |
98425c02-5077-4493-b90f-7ad0fe02e0ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deception?! I ain’t got time for that!
Or ... How penalizing computation used during training disfavors deception.
This post was written under Evan Hubinger’s direct guidance and mentorship, as a part of the Stanford Existential Risks Institute ML Alignment Theory Scholars (MATS) program.
Thanks to Evan Hubinger, Yo... |
4e69853e-739a-4804-b33b-dd008f971021 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Complex systems theory in human performance. New model for conceptualizing training, adaptation and long-term development
Lately, I’ve been exploring the concept of complex adaptive systems and their relevance to human performance. Every coach or sports scientist understands that we cannot break down performance into ... |
105673a0-3c9b-4383-a862-0cf9041877d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unity Gridworlds
Summary:
Unity Gridworlds is an open-source recreation of DeepMind’s 2017 paper, AI Safety Gridworlds in the Unity game engine, including a level editor that decreases the barrier to entry for non-specialists to design their own Gridworlds-style experiments.
(See this blog for a longer form of this ... |
8a6ce731-e7f3-4363-b5c6-7c15a962f801 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropomorphisation vs value learning: type 1 vs type 2 errors
The Occam's razor paper showed that one cannot deduce an agent H's reward function (RH - using the notation from that paper) or their level of rationality (pH) by observing their behaviour or even by knowing their policy (πH). Subsequently, in a LessWrong... |
3ba0a2d4-3694-4e49-96d6-f052385ef89c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Loving a world you don’t trust
(Cross-posted from my website. Audio version here, or search for "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.)
This is the final essay in a series that I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that the individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but se... |
e0523b30-3d1c-4f2b-b222-212402f082a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [MLSN #5]: Prize Compilation
Link to original post: https://newsletter.mlsafety.org/p/ml-safety-newsletter-5
Welcome to the 5th issue of the ML Safety Newsletter. In this special edition, we focus on prizes and competitions:
* ML Safety Workshop Prize
* Trojan Detection Prize
* Forecasting Prize
* Uncertainty Es... |
5b28035d-9720-45a3-aed7-32564e10b733 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(Added: To see the best advice in this thread, read this summary.)This is a thread for practical advice for preparing for the coronavirus in places where it might substantially grow.We'd like this thread to be a source of advice that attempts to explain itself. This is not a thread to drop links to recommendations tha... |
0fcd6115-4d61-4bd5-a839-4a20a52a44d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Video] Too much Empiricism kills you
Here is a video I made 2 months ago. It gives a mediocre at best explanation for an important foundational argument:
It is normally possible to make progress using empirical methods, as long as you can measure how good a particular change was. That holds even when you don't reall... |
8b8d9a76-992c-41fd-acfd-6275396978c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measuring the Sanity Waterline
I've always appreciated the motto, "Raising the sanity waterline." Intentionally raising the ambient level of rationality in our civilization strikes me as a very inspiring and important goal.
It occurred to me some time ago that the "sanity waterline" could be more than just a metaphor... |
aecb7b6d-c236-4e18-866f-cd14ff49644f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is nuking women and children cheaper than firebombing them?
When I was a teenager, my favorite board game was the World War Two strategy game Axis & Allies. It taught me basic principles of adversarial strategy including Lanchester's laws, how to wield the law of large numbers and "chaos favors the underdog". But my f... |
620feb19-a841-447a-8398-a9407e8cee88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Personal predictions
Crossposted from Substack.
Epistemic status: my experience making predictions in the past year.
Roughly a year ago, as I was reading the Sequences, I decided it was time for me to start making and tracking predictions to test how calibrated I was. The only thing I figured I needed was some tool ... |
fe36e14d-af4e-4659-a5b8-dec562eaabe6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The No Free Lunch theorems and their Razor
The No Free Lunch (NFL) family of theorems contains some of the most
misunderstood theorems of machine learning. They apply to learning[[1]](#fn-jLW5DsyqFrCmnZQv8-1) and
optimization[[2]](#fn-jLW5DsyqFrCmnZQv8-2) and, in rough terms, they state:
>
> All algorithms for lea... |
097f0e8c-b00f-42d4-ab98-5174208ceb61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Argentina
Fitz Roy Massif, El Chalten, Argentina
I recently got back from Argentina, where we decided to spend part of our honeymoon. We chose Argentina for our honeymoon because my wife and I met in Patagonia in 2022, and we love the region. Behind the choice was also my desire to see a country undergoing a ... |
a835176d-ca5b-4f99-ab40-6ee24d3b5fec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Humans provide an untapped wealth of evidence about alignment
*This post has been recorded as part of the LessWrong Curated Podcast, and can be listened to on* [*Spotify*](https://open.spotify.com/episode/0jpI7LLNzKsn6lwrsoDCc9)*,* [*Apple Podcasts*](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/humans-provide-an-untapped-wea... |
0c07b223-125f-43a6-8c24-a7f100f416d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inference-Only Debate Experiments Using Math Problems
Work supported by MATS and SPAR. Code at https://github.com/ArjunPanickssery/math_problems_debate/.
Three measures for evaluating debate are
1. whether the debate judge outperforms a naive-judge baseline where the naive judge answers questions without hearing an... |
0002dd30-66ba-4a4f-a240-e86d4e81b620 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Introduction to inaccessible information
*This post was written under Evan Hubinger's direct guidance and mentorship, as a part of the [Stanford Existential Risks Institute ML Alignment Theory Scholars (MATS) program](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FpokmCnbP3CEZ5h4t/ml-alignment-theory-program-under-evan-hubinger).*
... |
e29a8b8c-04b2-409d-88a6-373a60dd647f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a good way to award a fixed prize in a prediction contest?
Let's say we're having a prediction contest where we want people to pre-register their probability estimates for the outcomes of a set of discrete events (e.g. the candidates for various races in an upcoming election). We have a fixed sum of, say, $10... |
b9b73395-5c7d-4743-bd70-65d9daeb9486 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Half-baked alignment idea: training to generalize
Note: I think there's a decent chance that the idea I describe is misguided, redundant, naive. My apologies if that is the case, and please feel free to point me towards existing, related writing or research.
Thanks to Peter Barnett and Justis Mills for feedback on a ... |
1a947ea5-a72a-4886-8020-0bccdb621a78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training a tiny SupAmp model on easy tasks. The influence of failure rate on learning curves
Link: https://github.com/rmoehn/farlamp/blob/master/build/tiny-supfail.pdf
This is the first experiment report of my AI alignment research project. A reminder what it is about:
I'm studying the impact of overseer failure on ... |
5517cefb-1af9-4eed-a4ba-4110d23f0812 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gradual Disempowerment, Shell Games and Flinches
Over the past year and half, I've had numerous conversations about the risks we describe in Gradual Disempowerment. (The shortest useful summary of the core argument is: To the extent human civilization is human-aligned, most of the reason for the alignment is that huma... |
ae7be65e-18cd-4246-b46a-0c91c4f204a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the alpha in one bit of evidence?
Recently the whole "if your p(doom) is high, you should short the market" thing has been going around. Let's say the market prices in a 0.1% chance of extinction per century, and you think there's a 50% chance we're dead in the next 25 years. This is about 12 bits of evidence.... |
8adc3550-bc12-47d5-930a-8fd54205b743 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 87. An Untrollable Mathematician
hello and welcome to the 87th session in
the AIA safety reading group tonight
Abram demske will present his work on a
non troll group mathematician which is
worked on as part of the agent
foundation technical agenda in the
machine intelligence Research Institute
this is a subject that ... |
c1c04498-7157-45c1-82bb-58c0efcd6b44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DALL-E does symbol grounding
I don’t want to write much more than the title already expresses. But considering the constantly shifting goalposts when it comes to progress towards AGI, I think this bears writing down.
In the abstract of the seminal paper [1] on the topic, the symbol grounding problem is defined as fo... |
63a6b6ab-3294-4c86-a2d0-1698c989ddc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a shortform post)
And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to ge... |
18a6d764-42f8-444f-99a7-87aa09f6edec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | -
- |
9bbb26d1-2a5d-40fa-a441-320e92be595c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | On the Utility of Model Learning in HRI.
I Introduction
---------------
An age-old debate that still animates the halls of computer science, robotics, neuroscience, and psychology departments alike is that between model-based and model-free (reinforcement) learning. Model-based methods work by building a model of t... |
2f58c301-4607-4230-97e2-bd7e70252561 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The 300-year journey to the covid vaccine
A covid vaccine has demonstrated 90% efficacy and no significant safety concerns in preliminary data from Phase 3 trials, according to an announcement today from Pfizer and BioNTech SE. The trials aren’t yet complete and the data hasn’t yet been released for independent verifi... |
ca23b77a-71ef-4be5-b1fc-119e8fcdd1f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Large Bureaucratic Organizations?
Large bureaucratic organizations have long seemed… strange to me, on an intuitive level. Why do they exist? Like, in a world where the median person is John Wentworth (“Wentworld”), I’m pretty sure there just aren’t large organizations of the sort our world has. Nobody would ever ... |
a6d5747f-7413-46cc-9c99-197ff58a179f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : December Meetup in Munich
Discussion article for the meetup : December Meetup in Munich
WHEN: 10 December 2016 04:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Elsenheimerstr. 47a, 80687 Munich
The meetup will take place in the JetBrains Event Space. We will talk about Double Crux -- a CFAR exercise for resolving disagreements. ... |
a675521e-e08b-46e8-95f9-338a7cfb589b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When would an agent do something different as a result of believing the many worlds theory?
One of the things impeding the many worlds vs wavefunction-collapse dialogue is that nobody seems to be able to point to a situation in which the difference clearly matters, where we would make a different decision depending on... |
0b6ec0e9-4aa3-458e-9450-4ee5680a8080 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | High level overview on how to go about estimating "p(doom)" or the like
This is from a comment I left on a recent blog post from Gary Marcus, but I thought it might be of general interest here. Feedback and critiques definitely welcome!
------
For what it's worth, here's a slightly longer overview on my own current ... |
482ff2e6-36ec-449c-b8ca-3c26ca3131a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Additive Operations on Cartesian Frames
The mathematical object (but not the philosophical interpretation) of a [Cartesian Frame](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) is studied under the name "Chu space."
(In category theory, Chu spaces are usually studied in the specia... |
f6a380f7-8867-4151-8740-a76501c6fa2d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Humans Consulting HCH
*(See also:* *[strong HCH](https://medium.com/ai-control/strong-hch-bedb0dc08d4e).)*
Consider a human Hugh who has access to a question-answering machine. Suppose the machine answers question Q by perfectly imitating how Hugh would answer question Q, *if* *Hugh had access to the question-answeri... |
65a217a2-3e9a-4c22-ab08-391ec192ccf2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you do post mortems?
I noticed I don't have a set structure/approach to doing post mortems. Usually I create a simple timeline, consider about what could have gone better, and write down pointers for my future self. But sometimes I don't do a timeline; sometimes I don't write anything down and just reflect on t... |
14cb53c7-3b94-4ec3-b958-bea32d58616e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the long-term outcomes of a catastrophic pandemic?
Wei Dai now writes,
> The world is probably going to lose 5 2.5-10% of its population (380 190-760 million, see here for the reason for my edit), worse than the Spanish flu even on a percentage basis.
I have some questions about this conclusion and I'm stil... |
d94cb8b9-ff28-4a12-aff5-4abec3c01fd4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Against sacrificing AI transparency for generality gains
One of the cornerstone issue of AI alignment is the black box problem. Our machine learning models are inscrutable tables of floating point numbers and we don't know how to decpher them to understand what is actually going on inside. This is bad. Everyone seem t... |
a3f8da4b-2790-4e21-ace5-c61947fc4aa2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Exercise: My Little Pony
Recently I started watching My Little Pony: Friendship as Magic on the recommendation of numerous friends. It has been entertaining for the most part, but in episode 15, I hit a problem.
The main character, Twilight Sparkle, is an avid intellectual, who is constantly reading and ... |
50bd5e77-4507-47c5-8fe1-10690dfa50be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misapplied economics and overwrought estimates
I believe that a small piece of rationalist community doctrine is incorrect, and I'd like your help correcting it (or me). Arguing the point by intuition has largely failed, so here I make the case by leaning heavily on the authority of conventional economic wisdom.
The... |
1c45efa6-91b8-4d59-a4bd-c71ac7a08069 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety in a Vulnerable World: Requesting Feedback on Preliminary Thoughts
Cross-Posted to EA Forum
I would like feedback on a hypothesis that has been percolating in my brain for the past few months.
Epistemic Status: I have studied AI Safety for less than 100 hours, but have been thinking about x-risk for severa... |
1be7c4b0-48df-4c1d-a151-a1474e9c5039 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How has technology changed social skills?
At LW London last week, someone mentioned the possibility of a Google Glass app doing face recognition on people. If you've met someone before, it tells you their name, how you know them, etc. Someone else mentioned that this could reduce the social capital of people who are a... |
aee8605f-9f58-43df-97ac-489ce86222d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would you spend 30 million dollars?
There's a good song by Eminem - If I had a million dollars. So, if I had a hypothetical task to give away $30 million to different foundations without having a right to influence the projects, I would distribute them as follows, $3 million for each organization:
1. Nanofactory... |
1b9b6396-df99-436e-a485-e348f6572892 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Naming Rooms
Growing up, the bedrooms in the house had clear names: Jeff's room, Rose's room, Alice's room, Rick and Suzie's room, the Au Pair room, and the guest room. But people have moved around a lot: later occupants of "my" room have included Rose, Stevie, then later me, Julia, and Lily, and then even later Alice... |
73670556-e355-48e3-af9e-5f76321f5cee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Neuronpedia - AI Safety Game
### **EA CONTEXT**
Neuronpedia is funded by a short-term grant from an EA fund which ends in a few weeks. In lieu of the traditional "final report/paper" they requested, I am posting my project on the EA forum, so that you can play the game, provide feedback, and hopefully contribute.
I ... |
c984181b-67ed-44d7-b577-6ef1b0125987 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Reddit, help me find some peace I'm dying young
Saw this on reddit.
http://www.reddit.com/r/atheism/comments/ydsy5/reddit_help_me_find_some_peace_in_dying_young_im/
> Hey Reddit,
>
> I'm a 23 year old girl with recurrent Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), a highly aggressive type of brain cancer. I posted a coup... |
45bfaae2-cac2-4f46-a56d-efc7ae05ae2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to help friend who needs to get better at planning?
I have a good friend who is intelligent in many ways, but bad at planning / achieving his goals / being medium+ agency. He's very habit and routine driven, which means his baseline quality of life is high but he's bad at, e.g, breakdown an abstract and complex pr... |
37b2fdf7-b46b-49f5-9e46-0c00f3849613 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | "AGI timelines: ignore the social factor at their peril" (Future Fund AI Worldview Prize submission)
**This is a submission to the** [**Future Fund's AI Worldview Prize**](https://ftxfuturefund.org/announcing-the-future-funds-ai-worldview-prize/)**. It was submitted through** [**our submission form**](https://docs.goo... |
a7663043-e2ca-405d-b817-6f39451fec45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sora What
Hours after Google announced Gemini 1.5, OpenAI announced their new video generation model Sora. Its outputs look damn impressive.
HOW SORA WORKS
How does it work? There is a technical report. Mostly it seems like OpenAI did standard OpenAI things, meaning they fed in tons of data, used lots of compute, an... |
39e342b2-5851-4955-97b8-2954fad51e3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two-player Catan
Here's a way to play Settlers of Catan with two players that David and I worked out this weekend. We've only played one game with it so far, and didn't think very hard about tradeoffs, so there are probably better ways to do it.
* Set up the board as normal.
* Each player controls two colors. We d... |
c99527b5-1ace-47d0-a2b5-0e34e71367aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | Governance of superintelligence
Given the picture as we see it now, it’s conceivable that within the next ten years, AI systems will exceed expert skill level in most domains, and carry out as much productive activity as one of today’s largest corporations.
In terms of both potential upsides and downsides, superintel... |
14f434a9-73cd-4237-9a20-6733cd5bc095 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
> This post is part of my AI strategy nearcasting series: trying to answer key strategic questions about transformative AI, under the assumption that key events will happen very soon, and/or in a world that is otherwise very similar to today's.
This po... |
178d1762-4efe-4ce7-b463-b2b584a88db1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Artificial General Intelligence: Timeframes & Policy White Paper
Artificial General
Intelligence:
Timeframes
& Policy White Paper
Allison Duettmann
Foresight Institute
Foresight Institute is a non-profit organization
focused on supporting the upsides and avoiding
the downsides of technologies of fundamental
impo... |
740b76bd-5234-456f-8542-4b83e31138d7 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3735
tl;dr An unconstrained search through possible future worlds is a dangerous way of choosing positive outcomes. Constrained, imperfect or under-optimised searches work better. Some suggested methods for designing AI goals, or controlling AIs, involve unconstrained searches through possible future worlds. T... |
651ef903-7343-4e90-8fcc-431bdd8a91f7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How Many Bits Of Optimization Can One Bit Of Observation Unlock?
So there’s this thing where a system can perform more bits of optimization on its environment by observing some bits of information from its environment. Conjecture: observing an additional N.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent:... |
d7a2a669-f0dd-4a19-bd81-4580960fbb46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Broad-Spectrum Cancer Treatments
Midjourney, “engraving of Apollo shooting his bow at a distant cancer cell”
Introduction and Principles
The conventional wisdom is that we can’t “cure cancer” because every cancer is different.
And it’s true that cancer is genetically and biochemically diverse, and that targeted can... |
a000c53c-16ea-4948-a416-1d2b7afc4111 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's your peace plan?
I wrote a short form when the current Israel–Palestine hostilities started a few weeks ago. In retrospect, I was taking entirely the wrong point of view. I was thinking about it more like a r/AmITheAsshole post where it was about which side was worse. The only difference being I believed none o... |
23e38410-feba-4e51-93b3-de50b536b45c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for concrete AI takeover mechanisms
Any scenario where advanced AI takes over the world requires some mechanism for an AI to leverage its position as ethereal resident of a computer somewhere into command over a lot of physical resources.
One classic story of how this could happen, from Eliezer:
1. Crack ... |
93b047a7-ab9f-4f9d-a1d4-64102788ac18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How useful are masks during an epidemic?
This was a pretty contentious part of the debate on the CDC's recommendations and has come up elsewhere as well: how effective are masks at preventing infection when worn by an uninfected individual? How about preventing spread when worn by an infected individual? Are there thi... |
7db84fe2-b46e-40ec-b4e4-ff804975af48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ubiquitous Converse Lawvere Problem
(This post was originally published on Oct 20th 2017, and is 1 of 4 posts brought forwarded today as part of the AI Alignment Forum launch sequence on fixed points.)
In this post, I give a stronger version of the open question presented here, and give a motivation for this stro... |
401284b0-f05f-4e07-8245-ca03745fd45e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Resurrecting all humans ever lived as a technical problem
One day, we might be able to bring back to life every human ever lived, by the means of science and technology.
And it will be a good day.
History
=======
To the best of my knowledge, the idea was first described in detail by [Fyodorov](https://en.wikipedi... |
3e5e39b5-8479-4b15-8d72-12dd82e5c2d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Candy for Nets
Yesterday morning my five-year-old daughter was asking me about mosquitos, and we got on to talking about malaria, nets, and how Julia and I donate to the AMF to keep other kids from getting sick and potentially dying. Lily took it very seriously, and proposed that when I retire she take my programming ... |
59f469b8-06bd-49aa-a76a-71222864d2e5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Attention - General - Copying & Induction heads [rough early thoughts]
in our last video we talked about some
of the attention heads we found in large
transformers
but
uh we've saved the best for last and in
this video we're going to talk about
the most interesting attention heads
we've really found copying heads and ... |
ef0d667b-ddad-4281-9e75-3d042564559e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Dojo
Suppose you asked me to start a rationality dojo. What would I do?
I would tell you "Do not start a rationality dojo. It is a bad idea." A science camp, a programming camp, a math camp, a rhetoric camp and a Bible camp are all much better ideas.
But what if you offered me a lot of money? Then I woul... |
1d770065-e66b-4b2b-b985-965862957eca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mysteries, identity, and preferences over non-rewards
Note: working on a research agenda, hence the large amount of small individual posts, to have things to link to in the main documents.
I've given examples of preferences over non-rewards.
But those examples are easy to dismiss as irrational or imposing on others,... |
42a158aa-73b5-4d46-ae87-0b87ad8e1467 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Christchurch, NZ Inaugural Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Christchurch, NZ Inaugural Meetup
WHEN: 27 April 2014 04:30:00PM (+1200)
WHERE: James Hight Library, University of Canterbury, Room 901
Join us for the first Christchurch meetup!
It will be held in room 901, James Hight Library at the Un... |
144bb0ff-6725-4d42-8643-18e98c27d902 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cross Robin
A common contra dance figure is "right shoulder round": walk around the opposite-role person on the side of the set while looking at them. A less common figure is the "mad robin": walk the same path, but instead look at the opposite-role person across the set. This suggests a third option, which we can cal... |
0fe661ea-d1c0-42a1-9862-f34a970c474e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measuring pre-peer-review epistemic status
Epistemic status: Exploratory, speculative, half-baked thought
It’s a worldwide optimization problem. What content to consume under what conditions to reach a particular goal? Taking a step back and looking only at academia, and constraining ourselves to only academic papers... |
9f426d17-0041-4f2d-94c0-6bc8e26ce1ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Petrov Day 2021: Mutually Assured Destruction?
Pictured Left: Enter launch codes to destroy the EA Forum
Pictured Right: Enter launch codes to destroy LessWrong
Petrov Day
Today we celebrate not destroying the world. We do so today because 38 years ago, Stanislav Petrov made a decision that averted tremendous calami... |
2a640511-cbfd-4c62-9968-ba68b41315b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Case for a Journal of AI Alignment
When you have some nice research in AI Alignment, where do you publish it? Maybe your research fits with a ML or AI conference. But some papers/research are hard sells to traditional venues: things like [Risks from Learned Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820), [Logical... |
6b9fc6e5-4443-43d3-83b7-fd498cd956e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | French long COVID study: Belief vs Infection
Thanks to JustisMills and Ruby for reviewing this post. Any errors are my own.
TLDR: The French long COVID study which suggests that belief in having had COVID is correlated with long COVID symptoms but that actually having had COVID is not correlated with long COVID sympt... |
2bd5bf58-234b-4882-897f-13cac9deea0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Analogy for Understanding Transformers
Thanks to the following people for feedback: Tilman Rauker, Curt Tigges, Rudolf Laine, Logan Smith, Arthur Conmy, Joseph Bloom, Rusheb Shah, James Dao.
TL;DR
I present an analogy for the transformer architecture: each vector in the residual stream is a person standing in... |
d308d527-5cbf-48f5-9e3d-b691446137a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Bite Sized Introduction to ELK
Epistemic Status: This post is mainly me learning in public as my final project for the ML Safety Scholars Program. Errors are very possible, corrections very welcome.
Purpose of this Post
From my limited perspective as a curious undergrad student, ELK research seems like a perfect w... |
438d9bbd-fe91-4125-ae41-47e97d57ed36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are reliable ways to make a statement in such a way that I will be able to prove in the future that I had made that statement?
An important use case would be for tracking predictions reliability.
Ideally this should also reduce risks of positive bias. |
4e770967-95fd-41af-9ad2-f340f9b9730c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | View and bet in Manifold prediction markets on Lesswrong
(Crossposted from EA Forum)
Links to prediction markets on Manifold Markets now show a preview of the market on hover.
You can also embed markets directly in posts:
This lets you bet on yes/no questions without leaving Lesswrong! You do need to be logged int... |
b55f4447-304b-457d-83ed-6d5c23391f2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Stanford Salon and LW inaugural meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Stanford Salon and LW inaugural meetup
WHEN: 07 April 2014 07:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 489 Arguello Way
Have you been craving the creation of a new Less Wrong meetup on campus at Stanford? Maybe you have been searching for a more loc... |
ccb4142f-6ad8-45aa-8557-70fe44d9779f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Sanity Checks for Saliency Maps
Sanity Checks for Saliency Maps
Julius Adebayo, Justin Gilmer], Michael Muelly], Ian Goodfellow], Moritz Hardt]y, Been Kim]
juliusad@mit.edu ,{gilmer,muelly,goodfellow,mrtz,beenkim}@google.com
]Google Brain
yUniversity of California Berkeley
Abstract
Saliency methods have emerged as a ... |
f454386f-af27-42a8-81d0-15f6c3ac5b6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple
Allen B. Downey has made a rough draft version of his new introduction to Bayesian statistics textbook available for free online. You can download the pdf version here or read the HTML here.
> Think Bayes is an introduction to Bayesian statistics using computational... |
07f83add-5895-4cc2-9527-7a6535d0c259 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Science Cathedrals"
My favorite place in the world is Chicago's Museum of Science and Industry. When I was younger, I would constantly beg my parents to take me there. It was pretty far, and it's not exactly enjoyable to drive through Chicago, but I'd ask anyways. It felt to me like the one place in the world I'd bee... |
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