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5709bc4b-1e03-4f90-ad32-99b8d7970d97 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post579
Yoshua Bengio recently posted a high-level overview of his alignment research agenda on his blog. I'm pasting the full text below since it's fairly short. What can’t we afford with a future superintelligent AI? Among others, confidently wrong predictions about the harm that some actions could yield. Especi... |
3f9c2dff-3715-4f57-a9bc-190a624f7b29 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Against the Open Source / Closed Source Dichotomy: Regulated Source as a Model for Responsible AI Development
**Context**
===========
This is a short post to illustrate and start testing an idea that I have been playing around with in the last couple of days after listening to a recent 80,000 hours podcast with Musta... |
039c6dd1-40dc-4d12-9baf-aa82996e848e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Safe Deep RL in 3D Environments using Human Feedback
1 Introduction
---------------
Many of deep reinforcement learning’s recent successes have relied on the availability of a procedural reward function and a simulated environment for the task in question. As a result, research has been largely insulated from many ... |
27f33977-0eae-4068-8a96-c8c252edfcf9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison: Prospect Theory
Discussion article for the meetup : Madison: Prospect Theory
WHEN: 14 October 2012 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 325 Rethke Ave, Madison WI
Prospect theory is a very simple, but reasonably predictive, model of actual human decisions. This Sunday, I'll give a short presentation on prosp... |
78374161-d209-4f64-819c-c588e70ac457 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research Priorities for Hardware-Enabled Mechanisms (HEMs)
Longview Philanthropy is launching a new request for proposals on hardware-enabled mechanisms (HEMs). To encourage strong proposals, we’ve written up what we believe to be top priorities for research in this field.
We think HEMs are a promising method to en... |
6d2b62e4-13fc-4446-8427-002bdf3faacd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solstice 2014 / Rational Ritual Retreat - A Call to Arms
Summary:
• I'm beginning work on the 2014 Winter Solstice. There are a lot of jobs to be done, and the more people who can dedicate serious time to it, the better the end result will be and the more locations it can take place. A few people have volunteered ... |
ef4006e7-189e-43ff-b62d-f1f3481ed0a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Agency model can solve the AI regulation dilemma
It seems to me that most people concerned about AI regulation (and calls for "CERN for AI", or the proposals such as the OAA) are concerned about the monopolisation of AI, not about regulation per se. And in AI monopolisation (or oligopolisation), they are mostly c... |
157ec045-b588-4c28-bdd2-1440c89ddc2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Preference Fulfillment Hypothesis
Short version
Humans have an innate motivation ("preference fulfillment", PF) to fulfill the preferences of those they care about. It corresponds to at least some of the senses of the word "love", as well as related words such as "kindness" and "compassion".
I hypothesize that it... |
d7a14599-5d6c-4b15-8de7-df110c59ed3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the most important papers/post/resources to read to understand more of GPT-3?
I'm way more used to thinking about weird maths or distributed algorithms or abstract philosophical problems than about concrete machine learning architectures. But based on everything I see about GPT-3, it seems a nice idea to lear... |
82f79933-1dfb-4be2-af52-753d53d5e580 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When does technical work to reduce AGI conflict make a difference?: Introduction
This is a pared-down version of a longer draft report. We went with a more concise version to get it out faster, so it ended up being more of an overview of definitions and concepts, and is thin on concrete examples and details. Hopefully... |
7f0891fb-c3d1-497f-8117-79874ffc54c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are tulpas moral patients?
We take a lot about whether or not are animals and to what extent they are conscious, but I have seen little discussion about whether tulpas should be considered to be conscious and to be moral patients.
Is there any serious philosophy done on the topic? |
62bc20d1-c701-454f-8e1f-3684c6c71171 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #142]: The quest to understand a network well enough to reimplement it by hand
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look thro... |
62fbed74-75a4-4a95-9c38-a207c1925ed3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Yoshua Bengio: "Slowing down development of AI systems passing the Turing test"
Full text of the blog post below:
> I recently signed an [**open letter**](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/) asking to slow down the development of giant AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 –those that cu... |
afb28734-a7ef-42a5-9e24-3f50952dcbdf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bloggingheads: Robert Wright and Eliezer Yudkowsky
Sweet, there's another Bloggingheads episode with Eliezer.
Bloggingheads: Robert Wright and Eliezer Yudkowsky: Science Saturday: Purposes and Futures
|
988f78ba-1e5a-4e06-be53-a3f98a60d553 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationally Ending Discussions
Discussions should end gracefully. There should be some clarity about why they’re ending and why that’s rationally acceptable. If someone wants to continue the discussion, they should have the opportunity to see why this ending is reasonable. (Or, failing that, they should have some evide... |
f86d20c1-5a49-41cd-95bb-43b67de075f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Value of Information
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Value of Information
WHEN: 23 May 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm - 9:00pm Wednesday, May 23rd.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages w... |
5a0b27cf-d528-4bdd-860f-968d5b6f28f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are bread crusts healthier?
When you think about it for a second, almost definitely not. They're exactly the same stuff as bread, just more burnt, and so more likely to have the nutritious stuff broken down, and contain carcinogens. Indeed a quick internet search "busts the myth" that crusts are healthier.
So when my... |
2d3d235e-1210-4a8f-8a5c-d6660f6c4cf1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | "Develop Anthropomorphic AGI to Save Humanity from Itself" (Future Fund AI Worldview Prize submission)
**This is a submission to the** [**Future Fund's AI Worldview Prize**](https://ftxfuturefund.org/announcing-the-future-funds-ai-worldview-prize/)**. It was submitted through** [**our submission form**](https://docs.g... |
57ee2957-ad47-40a0-a8cf-93d5378a88c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality witticisms suitable for t-shirts or bumper stickers
What are your best short witticisms, suitable for use on a t-shirt, bumper sticker, or similar location? Ideally something that might make someone reading it think, or get curious enough to ask about it. Simple in-group identification is fine too, though.... |
aeb9ae9b-2f7c-4ba9-a78e-bd4ed1efed9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Causal Undertow: A Work of Seed Fiction
A short story, best enjoyed in-context... try exploring possible meanings of some of the unusual terms with your favourite commercially available Solomonoff inductor.
Acknowledgements. Thanks to Simon Pepin Lehalleur and Ziling Ye for feedback and suggestions.
This post is the... |
9e5d3525-3bf1-4404-9c9a-55f0220cf7f7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Defining Optimization in a Deeper Way Part 3
Last time I got stuck trying to remove the need for **uncertainty**. I have done it now! In the process I have also removed the need for **absolute time**.
The Setup
---------
First we need to consider the universe as a causal network. This can be done without any notion ... |
c1877c11-7a53-454a-8877-89acfebe68a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LW Munich Meetup in July
Discussion article for the meetup : LW Munich Meetup in July
WHEN: 06 July 2013 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Café at Gasteig, Rosenheimer Straße 5, 81667 München
The next Munich meetup will take place on July 6th. We will continue discussing the epistemology sequence as well as talk a... |
4bd26bac-c0c2-43ca-a1a7-c75a8908b6d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Where next for piracy ?
Where next for piracy ?
-----------------------
As an *intellectual property abolitionist*, I'm often thinking of how we can keep improving media piracy.
The raw file-sharing has is mostly solved: the BitTorrent protocol works pretty well, and [IPFS](https://ipfs.io/) is probably a reasonab... |
2438ad5e-7b4e-4c57-8d3a-0e4540968913 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why would a free human society be in agreement on how to alter itself?
So I've been grappling with these discussions on the plausibility or implausibility of redefining cultural boundaries of several sorts to (as the radical example of self-alteration by Eliezer goes) make non-consensual sex as tolerated and tolerable... |
d364530d-0949-49f1-bb90-e1218fbe526e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where in the world will a UBI develop first?
Disclaimer: As a pathological lurker, I'm partially asking this question to help pave the way for questions/posts that I have spent more time thinking about and am more emotionally invested in. However, this question also struck me as important and relevant to the miscellan... |
bcfce790-60c3-4acc-963e-ccad988b7604 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking back on my alignment PhD
This post has been recorded as part of the LessWrong Curated Podcast, and can be listened to on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Libsyn, and more.
----------------------------------------
My dissertation. It's long, so if you're going to read anything from it, read Chapter 0 (Introduction).... |
005a32e8-533d-40db-befc-1c5df312186c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vocal Range
I'm organizing another secular solstice, which has me thinking about where to pitch songs so the most people will feel comfortable. I found several people saying that range of C to C generally works well with untrained voices, and if they had said something weird like Db-E I might have believed them, but C... |
683a3524-36af-4ed6-8459-eaa0814b12f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Analogies and General Priors on Intelligence
This post is part 2 in our sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk. We are building a model to understand debates around existential risks from advanced AI. The model is made with Analytica software, and consists of nodes (representing key hypotheses and cruxes) and edg... |
7ff1fa07-29b8-4ee6-9e52-7f68ce53b3e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is this how I choose to show up?
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/is-this-how-i-choose-to-show-up/
Is this how I choose to show up? No.
I’m exhausted. I’m just trying to survive here and today I did that. Not every today. But I did this today. Yes.
Is this how I choose to show up? No.
I’m doing bette... |
4ed06c00-2810-4580-8168-efb81bb2eecf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Saskatoon's First Meetup!
Discussion article for the meetup : Saskatoon's First Meetup!
WHEN: 17 August 2013 01:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 2318 8th St E, Saskatoon, SK
It's time for central Canada's first meetup!
It will be at the Broadway Roaster on 8th street (not on broadway!) at the pleasant time of 1:00 ... |
8bb93eb6-3eed-4a9a-bd99-8c034f8e7c89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Levels of Pluralism
This post is part of the work done at Conjecture.
Preparing the Pluralism Question
When do we want all our research eggs in the same paradigm basket?
Although most people don't go as far as the extreme paradigmatism of Thomas Kuhn in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, which only allows one... |
0926e7e8-d40b-42b9-82fe-26f6be3bdc8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neil Armstrong died before we could defeat death
The sad news broke tonight : Neil Armstrong, the first human to ever walk another world, died today. We lost him forever. He died before we could defeat death.
Once again the horror of death strikes. This time, in addition from wiping from us forever a hero of humanity... |
7b500a29-d5a4-44b9-b7a0-44e2a2ad831f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Young Americans believe they have the best health in the world...
Of course, it turns out they're actually last among developed nations in real health outcomes.
> The U.S. ranks #1 among 17 affluent, western countries in the percentage of people aged 5 to 34 who rate their health as good. Unfortunately, when doctors ... |
0a93b57b-5af3-4d04-830a-b43a464d4717 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: On the Edge: The Future
Previously: The Fundamentals, The Gamblers, The Business
We have now arrived at the topics most central to this book, aka ‘The Future.’
RATIONALISM AND EFFECTIVE ALTRUISM (EA)
> The Manifest conference was also one of the last reporting trips that I made for this book. And it co... |
235c6bba-e5e0-4291-b36f-680d185c5d4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Game Theory
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Game Theory
WHEN: 20 March 2016 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
We will be meeting in the courtyard to talk about game theory - a mathematical field looking at strategies for games where the outcome of your moves ... |
8f639f38-f963-42d1-a817-48ac85453082 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do not delete your misaligned AGI.
In short: Just keeping all copies of potentially strong agents in long-term storage is a trivial way to maintain incentives to cooperate for some classes of misaligned AGI, by allowing us to reward the AGI's cooperation to whatever degree we later calculate had been warranted. In con... |
497a2e17-4aeb-48ee-975e-bfa6f77cd141 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is a Self-Iterating AGI Vulnerable to Thompson-style Trojans?
In his 1984 lecture ["Reflections on Trusting Trust"](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/%7Erdriley/487/papers/Thompson_1984_ReflectionsonTrustingTrust.pdf), Ken Thompson (of Unix fame) speculated about a methodology for inserting an undetectable trojan horse within th... |
2eba1154-af2f-4d2d-aa88-149fd972125f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC: Choice Blindness
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC: Choice Blindness
WHEN: 30 September 2012 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll spend some time discussing the recent findings on choice blindness, then revert to general convers... |
c66f0ac9-4d20-4ec4-a079-889283695573 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hanson Debating Yudkowsky, Jun 2011
> On Wednesday I debated my ex-co-blogger Eliezer Yudkowsky at a private Jane Street Capital event (crude audio here, from 4:45; better video here [as of July 14]).
>
> I “won” in the sense of gaining more audience votes — the vote was 45-40 (him to me) before, and 32-33 after the ... |
b20a5516-04c9-4a58-a7b6-4b00c395b423 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brain structure - scans reveal an amazingly regular pattern
http://www.nih.gov/news/health/mar2012/nimh-29.htm has images of human and monkey brain scans which reveal an amazingly grid-like pattern of neuronal connections. What are the implications? Could brain scanning, emulation etc be simpler than would appear from... |
293b0ae9-870c-4983-ad2e-e3dcea53f6c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Do anthropic considerations undercut the evolution anchor from the Bio Anchors report?
The [Bio Anchors report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines) by Ajeya Cotra tries to forecast AGI timelines by getting estimates of how much compute might be needed to build or train a mod... |
9525d8e1-81db-439c-9075-2a455e7c692f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Principles of Privacy for Alignment Research
The hard/useful parts of alignment research are largely about understanding agency/intelligence/etc. That sort of understanding naturally yields capabilities-relevant insights. So, alignment researchers naturally run into decisions about how private to keep their work.
Thi... |
3851eee9-7818-4b0f-94ed-37b42982d893 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Chatbot of Babble
by ChatGPT-4o, with guidance and very light editing by me. This isn't meant to be a plausible version of the future, just me having some fun generating stories vaguely related to AI risks in the styles of vaguely similar stories from literature.
1. And it came to pass, in the latter days of mank... |
573282d8-e81f-484a-9d73-238c56841ea2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Source Replication of Anthropic’s Crosscoder paper for model-diffing
Intro
Anthropic recently released an exciting mini-paper on crosscoders (Lindsey et al.). In this post, we open source a model-diffing crosscoder trained on the middle layer residual stream of the Gemma-2 2B base and IT models, along with code, ... |
16ae0bc1-b2b4-431c-aee6-fda825a42193 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nonmindkilling open questions
When I explain to people how beliefs should be expressed in probabilities, I would like to use an example like "Consider X. Lots of intelligent people believe X, but lots of equally intelligent people believe not-X. It would be ridiculous to say you are 100% sure either way, so even if yo... |
8c68dad5-f161-490f-bd4d-a8058dd2fbc7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on July 4th, the following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Houston, TX: 12 July 2014 02:00PM
* Upper Canada LW Megameetup: Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, Waterloo, London: 18 July 2014 07:00PM
* Moscow m... |
ad1e7ad5-7986-4538-9cc5-02108b777973 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two Words That Offer Final Ultimate Proof That Medical System Is Evil
Music therapy.
At the hospital, I have just learned, they offer Music Therapy. By music, I mean random folk singers with guitars. By therapy, I mean letting those folk singers sing, and play their guitars. And by offer, I mean do this without conse... |
c6cf34da-e0b5-4e21-b5e3-1b414a100f10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms
Matt Botvinick is Director of Neuroscience Research at DeepMind. In this interview, he discusses results from a 2018 paper which describe conditions under which reinforcement learning algorithms will spontaneously give rise to separate full-fledged rei... |
e3bd866d-5e68-4312-9eba-d270bd58dea6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Running many AI variants to find correct goal generalization
Problem: An AI may incorrectly generalize a goal we present it.
Proposal: Run many slightly different instances of AI and find the “Schelling point” around correct generalization.
The idea is that if we run many similar AIs or copies of the same AI in para... |
69e93c86-76a6-44a4-8d2d-7cce698730c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Galaxy-Brain Hobo Antibiotics?
[ edit: I have gotten an ear infection diagnosis and a prescription for antibiotics as of 26 June 2025, [ see comment ] ]
I have what I think is a chronic inner ear infection. Since March of 2021, I've had subjective obstructive Eustachian tube dysfunction in my right ear, as well as oc... |
d764343c-4349-4fdc-b807-95a87a1001f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eternal: The Exit Interview
Previously: Eternal, and Hearthstone Economy versus Magic Economy, The Eternal Grind, My Referral Link to download Eternal if you want to play.
Epistemic Status: Played a lot of games. Wrote a lot of words. Those not interested in Magic, Eternal or game design may want to skip this one.
E... |
daa1d261-6fdc-4ff7-a628-9eee1e945a0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Christmas card to my mother
Dear Mama,
Happy Christmas!
Rather than be so bold as to give you a further object to take care of, I gathered for you a collection of things I think you might like on the internet. I CC the world, in case they are interested, or want to add anything.
Lots of love, Katja xox
(Pi... |
74fb6449-5615-4072-b364-cab465ab386e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hedonic Loops and Taming RL
Crossposted from my personal blog.
Everybody knows about the hedonic treadmill. Your hedonic state adjusts to your circumstances over time and quickly reverts to a mostly stable baseline. This is true of basic physiological needs -- you feel hungry; you seek out food; you eat; you feel ... |
70fce916-440d-4d45-819a-994b40c8ed02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Rump Session
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Rump Session
WHEN: 25 November 2014 07:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Yigal Alon Street 98, Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel
WHEN: 25 November 2014 07:00:00PM (+0200) WHERE: Google, Electra Tower 29th Floor, Yigal Alon Street 98, Tel Aviv.
It... |
ba7e8f99-1766-43db-a0f2-aeda47c7b433 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | GalCom
summary(Rules):
1. It costs 1 galcoin per bit to reserve on-peak bits in advance. Galcoins are very expensive.
2. You can reprogram your machine on Vega in advance, using cheap, off-peak bits. Don't worry about the cost of those.
3. You can resell reserved bits that you don't use (including fractional bits).
4... |
1ea746c0-7657-49e0-967a-497d0f0c853f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have people given up on iterated distillation and amplification?
The BlueDot Impact write-up for scalable oversight seems to suggest that people have given up on iterated distillation and amplification (IDA) working. I haven’t really seen much research here, but is that actually the case?
I know that Ought is now pre... |
e4cf3a7d-22bd-488f-b2d1-81f545d83d05 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Policy Selection Solves Most Problems
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float:... |
bb095c95-44e1-41ea-8ce6-7f2f7490d91c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some thoughts on relations between major ethical systems
On the recent LessWrong/CFAR Census Survey, I hit the following question:
> Which of the following major ethical systems do you subscribe to:
>
> 1) Consequentialism
>
> 2) Deontology
>
> 3) Virtue Ethics
>
> 4) Other
To my own surprise, I couldn't c... |
7c2ba392-74f6-48a8-9f4c-3cb4daaf3cda | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #110]: Learning features from human feedback to enable reward learning
**Newsletter #110**
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you ... |
fcac362e-1fee-417e-b87d-98490d56c03a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What are some sources related to big-picture AI strategy?
I am hoping to strengthen my zoomed-out picture of the current strategic situation related to AI. I am very interested in finding documents/posts/write-ups that attempt to layout important real-world, strategic considerations.
Ideally such documents would incl... |
897d15b6-cb8a-4292-afb0-d123bafda046 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Knightian uncertainty: a rejection of the MMEU rule
Recently, I found myself in a conversation with someone advocating the use of [Knightian uncertainty](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty). He (who I'm anonymizing as Sir Percy) made suggestions that are useful to most bounded reasoners, and which can ... |
a2ef6166-f441-47d6-b7e3-2d23dce9733f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Reliable prediction
Most statistical learning theory settings (such as [PAC learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probably_approximately_correct_learning) and [online learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_machine_learning)) do not provide good enough bounds in realistic high-stakes settings, where the test ... |
457e3af1-283b-4cfc-b82b-423f442e0a06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 87,000 Hours or: Thoughts on Home Ownership
Edited to add epistemic status and summary:
The basic thesis of this post is that, for many reasons, the volatility (riskiness) of buying a house are significantly higher than generally believed.
The considerations explored here are the result of discussions with a financi... |
c9c08302-794b-4c6f-a866-9afb6aeaa7c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Going Beyond Linear Mode Connectivity: The Layerwise Linear Feature Connectivity
Hi! I am excited to share our new work *Going Beyond Linear Mode Connectivity: The Layerwise Linear Feature Connectivity* with the LessWrong Community. In our new [work](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.08286.pdf), we introduce a stronger notio... |
981740dd-8c5c-4057-863e-e328873db6c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Reading From The Book Of Sequences
Summary: A speaker will read excerpts from a text the community finds important, weaving the quotes in with experiences from their life or stories.
Tags: Large, Investment, maybe Experimental?
Purpose: This creates common knowledge around the subject of the reading. Everyone know... |
673d7967-146b-46c0-94f2-eea6795e4418 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking Truth Too Hard Can Keep You from Winning
LW-style rationality is about winning. Instrumentally, most rationalists think they can win, in part, by seeking truth. I frequently run into comments here where folks take truth as an effectively "sacred" concern in the sense that truth matters to them above all else. ... |
7d731d40-f35e-4d5c-8f61-a27a6f7db5f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Use Prompt Engineering to Rewire Your Brain
None |
a57984b9-de8f-45e7-a209-75dec427536d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On AI and Interest Rates
Note, To say it up front: None of this, or anything ever on this blog, is investment advice.
This post on the EA form, highlighted by Tyler Cowen, points out that
1. Transformative aligned AI would increase real interest rates. A lot.
2. Transformative unaligned AI would increase real inte... |
96ee9ae4-04fe-4d18-b5d5-38846b65008a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Non-Adversarial Goodhart and AI Risks
In a [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04585) by Scott Garrabrant and myself, we formalized and extended the categories [Scott proposed](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/EbFABnst8LsidYs5Y/goodhart-taxonomy) for Goodhart-like phenomena. (If you haven't read either his post... |
27e49c2e-9daa-4209-9716-f704d2b0849e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Situational awareness in Large Language Models
I’m grateful to Bogdan Cirstea, Konstantin Pilz and Raphaël S for providing feedback on this post.
This post tries to clarify the concept of situational awareness, in particular with respect to current large language models.
What is situational awareness
Not writing an... |
edd0c964-34bf-4a37-8fe1-2f9884f7290b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideal Format/Frequency of Information Consumption
It seems that for every type of information input, there is an ideal:
1. Source/Format
2. Frequency
3. Time of Day
4. Energy State
----------------------------------------
1. Source/Format
Examples: Twitter, blog, books, podcasts etc.
Don’t waste your time foll... |
533a52a0-6282-4f1f-992c-85e2df824a58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stable Pointers to Value III: Recursive Quantilization
This is a very loose idea.
In Stable Pointers to Value II, I pointed at a loose hierarchy of approaches in which you try to get rid of the wireheading problem by revising the feedback loop to remove the incentive to wirehead. Each revision seems to change the nat... |
3b663773-19f1-456f-8501-07e96646f9c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The slopes to common sense
The slopes to common sense
Usually, I try to outline the thing I'm talking about first. But in this case, it's best to start with an example.
i - Why we sleep
In 2017 the book "Why We Sleep" was published. This book was essentially trying to muster a very strong scientific argument for why... |
94cd6f61-fbb9-4daf-af0f-31155111cc15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gradient Descent on the Human Brain
TL;DR: Many alignment research proposals often share a common motif: figure out how to enter a basin of alignment / corrigibility for human-level models, and then amplify to more powerful regimes while generalizing gracefully. In this post we lay out a research agenda that comes at ... |
4f4ce59f-4ad1-40c5-bebe-86438ecfd4f0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | How and why should I form my own views about AI safety?
Forming an “[inside view](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/inside-outside-view)” of AI safety is the standard advice for aspiring [AI safety researchers](/?state=8UMA&question=How%20can%20I%20do%20conceptual%2C%20mathematical%2C%20or%20philosophical%20work%20on... |
2af3cac7-f8df-4c71-8a25-210e940940ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Amanda Knox Redux: is Satoshi Nakamoto the real Satoshi Nakamoto?
Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.
This seems like an excellen... |
b930680f-aa79-48a0-9725-7a6cb64abddc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Geeks, Mops, Sociopaths
|
c651eae5-0db4-41a6-a993-fe3d2dcaa054 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimizers: To Define or not to Define
Introduction
The definition of "optimizer" has been a sort of rationalist pastime for a many years now. Many different ones have been suggested, and many have fallen down. Most have been in terms of the behaviour of the system in question, which is probably not what we really wan... |
d3eea2b1-bc36-4e9b-a7c9-88861234e1c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Sketch of Belocracy: a new system of governance
I have been working on designing a new system of governance - an alternative to liberal democracy - for the past half decade, and hope that sharing it will inspire a good conversation. So, epistemic status: I really hope I have it figured out, but only time will tell w... |
44dd8a45-4f73-480b-a493-599af1427785 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup 10-04-2011
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup 10-04-2011
WHEN: 04 October 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10800 West Pico Blvd, Suite 312, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7pm - 9pm Tuesday, October 4th
Where: The Westside Tavern, located inside the Westside Pavillion on the secon... |
124f52ef-79e9-4dfc-95e1-800df14db59e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Would anyone be interested in pursuing the Virtue of Scholarship with me?
I'm a new undergraduate student essentially taking a gap year(it's complicated). I'm looking for someone that would be interested in studying various fields of science and mathematics with me. I've taken through Calculus 2, know how to program i... |
26f1f32b-631a-48ca-8eff-6d61c7176c35 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Decision theory: Why Pearl helps reduce “could” and “would”, but still leaves us with at least three alternatives
(This is the third post in a planned [sequence](/lw/16f/decision_theory_an_outline_of_some_upcoming_posts/).)
My [last post](/lw/174/decision_theory_why_we_need_to_reduce_could_would/) left us with th... |
b5be32b1-7999-44c6-b8d2-af01e1d160d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarifying the palatability theory of obesity
Here, I intend to clarify the core claims of the palatability theory of obesity outlined by Stephan J. Guyenet in his book The Hungry Brain (reviewed by Scott Alexander). Previously, I had written a comment defending his theory against a recently popular alternative, propo... |
3ee39ce1-eaad-4c1b-9b77-f5608de778cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Choose To Align AI
Epistemic status: poetry
> "We choose to go to the moon! We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because that goal will serve to organize the best of our skills and energies. Because that challenge is one we are wi... |
159321a3-2389-47a4-8ac1-4e31b843181a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Artificial Intelligence is stupid and causal reasoning won't fix it
Abstract
--------
Artificial Neural Networks have reached ‘Grandmaster’ and even ‘super-human’ performance’ across a variety of games, from those involving perfect-information, such as Go [Silver\_2016]; to those involving imperfect-information, su... |
3e8e633e-6b34-4323-919a-7c2c709062af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We probably won't just play status games with each other after AGI
There is a view I’ve encountered somewhat often,[1] which can be summarized as follows:
After the widespread deployment of advanced AGI, assuming humanity survives, material scarcity will largely disappear. Everyone will have sufficient access to nec... |
c553807c-2bab-4d9b-9156-1073a40468ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Use of Many Independent Lines of Evidence: The Basel Problem
This post describes how one can use many independent arguments to justifiably develop very high confidence in the truth of a statement. It ends with a case study: Euler’s use of several independent lines of evidence to develop confidence in the validity ... |
bef5e773-ff7c-4b05-ad97-e0f0bf945f6a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Solomonoff Induction explained via dialog.
|
f894d328-19e7-4c16-974d-19923a7aabff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Second Canberra Meetup - Paranoid Debating
Discussion article for the meetup : Second Canberra Meetup - Paranoid Debating
WHEN: 28 February 2014 06:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 148 Bunda St, Canberra
For our second meetup, we will be playing paranoid debating (for details, see http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Para... |
ae118c87-8cc2-475f-83ef-8705648d85ee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Do's and Don'ts for Human and Digital Worker Integration
I Introduction
---------------
AI technologies are transforming how work is conducted in every industry. Today, AI systems are enabling businesses to personalize services, converse with customers, automate operations, optimize workflows, predict demand, and r... |
dc323957-1161-43b1-9d7a-41590a88f204 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantum versus logical bombs
Child, I'm sorry to tell you that the world is about to end. Most likely. You see, this madwoman has designed a doomsday machine that will end all life as we know it - painlessly and immediately. It is attached to a supercomputer that will calculate the 10100th digit of pi - if that digit ... |
4d236d00-c6ca-4ef8-97cb-869a2441a8b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [ASoT] Some thoughts about imperfect world modeling
So [a few posts ago](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oijJc8Mu2jPNgpuvy/some-thoughts-about-deceptive-mesaoptimization) I looked at the problem of not being able to anticipate all consequences of an action as being related to deceptive mesaoptimization, but also outer... |
92c9e9d9-99ed-43ac-ba22-49a9c974e72a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to the Cambridge ERA:AI Fellowship 2025
The Cambridge ERA:AI Fellowship has opened applications for an in-person, paid, 8-week Summer Research Fellowship focused on catastrophic AI risk mitigation, taking place from 29th June to 24th August 2025 in Cambridge, UK, and aimed at a variety of aspiring researchers.
... |
50918784-5e46-4c88-a3da-387f7948d766 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pivotal acts from Math AIs
Eliezer Yudkowsky on Math AIs
Here are some interesting quotes from the alignment debate with Richard Ngo.
> If it were possible to perform some pivotal act that saved the world with an AI that just made progress on proving mathematical theorems, without, eg, needing to explain those theore... |
ca778ccc-3023-4585-8761-cf42e3b7f0d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value extrapolation partially resolves symbol grounding
Take the following AI, trained on videos of happy humans:
Since we know about AI wireheading, we know that there are at least two ways the AI could interpret its reward function[1]: either we want it to make more happy humans (or more humans happy); call this ... |
cd691698-498b-422d-819a-ed856c210dfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do the people behind the veil of ignorance vote for "specks"?
> The veil of ignorance as Rawls put it ..."no one knows his place in society, his class position or social status; nor does he know his fortune in the distribution of natural assets and abilities, his intelligence and strength, and the like."
The devi... |
2fb63532-e9ab-451e-8db5-cd5f71719809 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Pre-registering a study
This post is my [pre-registration](https://www.acf.hhs.gov/opre/blog/2022/08/pre-registering-studies-what-it-how-do-you-do-it-and-why#:~:text=Pre%2Dregistration%20is%20the%20practice,submitting%20it%20to%20a%20registry.) of a study I will be running to continue the exploratory work I started [h... |
e236fb5b-99c9-46e2-bd8a-d6d2bdc85f3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Topological Debate Framework
I would like to thank Professor Vincent Conitzer, Caspar Oesterheld, Bernardo Subercaseaux, Matan Shtepel, and Robert Trosten for many excellent conversations and insights. All mistakes are my own.
I think that there's a fundamental connection between AI Safety via Debate and Guaranteed S... |
0fc7141e-e4f9-4985-8c48-87ff537cdd64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For me the Christianity deal-breaker was meekness
I was raised Catholic, became agnostic around 13, stopped thinking an afterlife made sense at 15, and noticed I was no longer religious at 16.
But I still spent the next ~12 years in pretty close proximity to Christianity. I did religious studies at school, I studied ... |
916bddd8-a348-4f9f-904b-0aa51340234a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Injective function
A [https://arbital.com/p/-3jy](https://arbital.com/p/-3jy) $f: X \to Y$ is *injective* if it has the property that whenever $f(x) = f(y)$, it is the case that $x=y$. Given an element in the [image](https://arbital.com/p/3lm), it came from applying $f$ to exactly one element of the [domain](https://a... |
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