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7d778409-828a-46c5-a04c-a32658da1fb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Endometriosis is an incredibly interesting disease
Introduction
There are several diseases that are canonically recognized as ‘interesting’, even by laymen. Whether that is in their mechanism of action, their impact on the patient, or something else entirely. It’s hard to tell exactly what makes a medical condition in... |
1ddd13e8-bb93-49e6-9776-a36c1099593e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Semaglutide is cool, but no one wants to talk about b. animalis ssp. lactis?
[Epistemic status: I am not a doctor and this is not medical advice, but there are two RCTs supporting this. Also I talk about poop.]
Like many others, I've been excitedly reading about semaglutide over the last few days. For someone like St... |
f4ec682d-258a-4d63-90a9-7bdd9d5d50f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 38.1 - Alan Chan on Agent Infrastructure
YouTube link
Road lines, street lights, and licence plates are examples of infrastructure used to ensure that roads operate smoothly. In this episode, Alan Chan talks about using similar interventions to help avoid bad outcomes from the deployment of AI agents.
T... |
21169230-8418-489a-bda8-327821ee5126 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Gift I Give Tomorrow
This is the final post in my Ritual Mini-Sequence. Previous posts include the Introduction, a discussion on the Value (and Danger) of Ritual, and How to Design Ritual Ceremonies that reflect your values.
I wrote this as a concluding essay in the Solstice ritual book. It was intended to ... |
e9e4960b-e180-4e57-aba3-3319489d9668 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring Functional Decision Theory (FDT) and a modified version (ModFDT)
TL;DR
This post explores the role of Functional Decision Theory (FDT) in AI alignment, showcasing its efficacy in complex decision-making scenarios. The results obtained highlight the promising potential of FDT as a subject for further researc... |
4604419d-e6b1-4d16-90d4-5e8eb3122480 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unspeakable Morality
It is a general and primary principle of rationality, that we should not believe that which there is insufficient reason to believe; likewise, a principle of social morality that we should not enforce upon our fellows a law which there is insufficient justification to enforce.
Nonetheless, I've a... |
463b24e6-6bdd-44ae-90b4-e684f8483bd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT, the magical collaboration zone, Lex Fridman and Sam Altman
Cross-posted from New Savanna.
I was making one more run around the web before I buckled down and got back to a major writing task, when I came across the brand-spanking-new conversation between Lex Fridman and Sam Altman. Lex is Lex, and an interesting... |
7eea8d22-0f4c-4a50-8ecb-a24b992076a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inhibition and the Mind
Babies have a curious set of reflexes: lightly brush their palms, or the soles of their feet, and they will immediately grasp whatever caused the contact. In the case of feet, it’s more of an attempt than a successful grasping; human feet, while far more flexible and manipulative than most crea... |
d24e7bf8-b6d9-440a-9db5-5a31c1606407 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EIS V: Blind Spots In AI Safety Interpretability Research
Part 5 of 12 in the Engineer’s Interpretability Sequence.
Thanks to Anson Ho, Chris Olah, Neel Nanda, and Tony Wang for some discussions and comments.
TAISIC = “the AI safety interpretability community”
MI = “mechanistic interpretability”
Most AI safety i... |
020e8fed-8fea-4ac9-8643-1c53cf098c19 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The International PauseAI Protest: Activism under uncertainty
This post is an attempt [to](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/vw6tX5SyvTwMeSxJk) [summarize](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/pause-for-thought-the-ai-pause-debate) the [crucial considerations](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/crucial-conside... |
f4cc8975-38f0-417d-b0db-c826defda3e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal-directedness: imperfect reasoning, limited knowledge and inaccurate beliefs
This is the second post in my Effective-Altruism-funded project aiming to deconfuse goal-directedness. Comments are welcomed. All opinions expressed are my own, and do not reflect the attitudes of any member of the body sponsoring me.
In... |
c51c1f5d-4013-4294-8cb7-0c0a848420de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FACTS ARE FACTS?
Sure, I agree, facts are facts. But facts themselves are of little use if we don't peer through the causal relation between them, only then they become useful to us, because then, based on those relations between facts, we can analyse, know and predict our next move towards the best possible outcome... |
164fcdb5-9c0f-4481-8f4f-14c10354c268 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | Lessons From the World’s Two Experiments in AI Governance
Artificial intelligence (AI) is both omnipresent and conceptually slippery, making it notoriously hard to regulate. Fortunately for the rest of the world, two major experiments in the design of AI governance are currently playing out in Europe and China. The Eu... |
fcc44ea5-1b93-4148-be38-9652d4865a22 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Adaptation Executors and the Telos Margin
*Thank you to Justis Mills for feedback on a draft of this post.*
You'll often hear this bit of wisdom: "Humans are not utility optimizers, but rather adaptation executors." At first glance, it seems to be pretty self-explanatory. Humans are not effectively described by the o... |
eaa4f35d-6460-43e4-9cc2-f40cadfe4c37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New forum for MIRI research: Intelligent Agent Foundations Forum
Today, the Machine Intelligence Research Institute is launching a new forum for research discussion: the Intelligent Agent Foundations Forum! It's already been seeded with a bunch of new work on MIRI topics from the last few months.
We've covered most o... |
9ec3fd31-3a53-42ad-bb86-77719dae7a56 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Force neural nets to use models, then detect these
Research projects
-----------------
I'm planning to start two research projects on [model splintering/reward generalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1) and [learning the preferenc... |
26d8c2dd-a235-41f3-ba3b-6366e1223aa8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A confusion about deontology and consequentialism
I think there’s a confusion in our discussions of deontology and consequentialism. I’m writing this post to try to clear up that confusion. First let me say that this post is not about any territorial facts. The issue here is how we use the philosophical terms of art ‘... |
6c5942de-cd53-4167-a0f5-89ca271ff9bd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI safety without goal-directed behavior
When I first entered the field of AI safety, I thought of the problem as figuring out how to get the AI to have the “right” utility function. This led me to work on the problem of inferring values from demonstrators with unknown biases, despite the impossibility results in the ... |
a3c565a2-3376-46ff-9995-1ec3af5c9696 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Having a headache and not having a headache
Yesterday at 9am, I had a headache. I tried to put it out of mind and focus on other things, and I guess I was successful because the next time I thought about it, it was 10am and I didn't have a headache. (I'm simplifying and making up times that are approximately right.)
... |
29ed08c1-d636-4683-a35a-bf4e4f6305e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contra Heighn Contra Me Contra Functional Decision Theory
In my article about why Eliezer was often confidently and egregiously wrong, I gave his decision theory as a solid example of this. Eliezer thinks that the correct theory of rationality—of what it is wise to do in a particular situation—is FDT which says rough... |
c96043b9-a242-47af-b255-86cf077ae961 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Incoherence of Honesty
Some rationalists have what to me feels like an obsession with honesty. That's fine: we can all be obsessed with our own concerns. But I also think it's a rather strange sort of obsession given the nature of truth and our relationship to it even if we assume the framing of Bayesian epistemol... |
bacc098d-cdaf-4490-840c-7ea986157727 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Some thoughts on why adversarial training might be useful
### What are the reasons we might want to do adversarial training?
Here’s a rough taxonomy.
1. Your model has learnt a stupid heuristic instead of the thing you want
It has overfit to whatever particular dataset you trained on. It is best described as ... |
e3937e36-9b6a-4113-8ad0-b7f8bb9af8fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Consciousness as a State of Matter (Max Tegmark)
Max Tegmark publishes a preprint of a paper arguing from physical principles that consciousness is “what information processing feels like from the inside,” a position I've previously articulated on lesswrong. It's a very physics-rich paper, but here's the most a... |
bc8041a9-eebf-471c-a2fc-576aa386563f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What specific dangers arise when asking GPT-N to write an Alignment Forum post?
Last year Stuart Armstrong announced a contest to come up with the best questions to ask an Oracle AI. Wei Dai wrote,
> Submission. For the counterfactual Oracle, ask the Oracle to predict the n best posts on AF during some future time pe... |
a4ff2200-33c5-417a-b526-b36efc647da8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Berkeley LW Meet-up Saturday November 6
Last month, about 20 people showed up to the Berkeley LW meet-up. To continue the tradition of Berkeley Meetups, we will be meeting on Saturday, November 6 at 7 PM at the Starbucks at 2224 Shattuck Avenue. Last time, we chatted at the Starbucks for about 45 minutes, then went ... |
b319fad0-3330-491e-b8df-6f9eb7d8b096 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does increasing the power of a multimodal LLM get you an agentic AI?
I'm worried about x-risk from AI. But I'm not especially worried about Sora. Or even Sora_v10.
I'm worried about GPT-6 being agentic. I'm worried that GPT-6 will be able to act as a personal agent that can follow through on tasks such as; "Get Yanni... |
f550ca58-7279-4af4-964b-e182061f4824 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should some variant of longtermism identify as a religion?
The material is already there, it wouldn't involve any lies at all. There are many advantages that need to be weighed.
How could it plausibly identify as a religion?
There are many reasons you might think that it couldn't. We do not lie to our friends, even ... |
0dba7b13-728f-4beb-b82c-bf6628e5374c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Other Civilizations Would Recover 84+% of Our Cosmic Resources - A Challenge to Extinction Risk Prioritization
Crossposted on the EA Forum.
We introduce a first evaluation of the Civ-Saturation Hypothesis (CSH): Most resources will be claimed by Space-Faring Civilizations (SFCs) regardless of whether humanity creates... |
ade718c2-4709-4b82-9676-1b98a32a2aea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mark Zuckerberg plans to give away 99% of his facebook wealth over his lifetime
Mark Zuckerberg annouced that he is going to give away 99% of his facebook wealth ($45 billion) over his lifetime.
He announced guiding questions:
> Can you learn and experience 100 times more than we do today?
> Can our generation cure ... |
643d6d36-c77e-43b4-a7b7-83460ec38959 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Managing one's memory effectively
Note: this post leans heavily on metaphors and examples from computer programming, but I've tried to write it so it's accessible to a determined person with no programming background.
To summarize some info from computer processor design at very high density: There are a variety of w... |
d9afa0fb-8e78-45cf-be59-b7ffda80648d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK-Misunderstanding risk of murder reincidence
People don't want this institutionalized murderer to get free because they don't understand there's no such thing as "zero risk."
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/straighttalk/archives/2014/02/20140228-142409.html |
c50187e8-61a1-4c66-b51f-08c3254ca10f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Costs are not benefits
|
a9e1311a-ec6b-4017-aa0b-66df75b05919 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brazilians, unite! and what is IERFH (portuguese)
Hi anglophones, this topic is only for brazilians, so someone may post in portuguese and part of this is in portuguese (We will translate it to english if necessary when the time comes).
Hello Brazilians, I'm creating this topic because some misallocated questions wer... |
af993394-d243-47c7-9661-1f829b6d79ec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What subjects should I study at university to prepare myself for alignment research?
A degree is not necessary to do high quality research, and many of the biggest contributions have been made by people without a traditional academic background, so don’t feel like you need to study for many years before starting work.... |
a2cf4a23-a9f8-4728-ac2e-0bef9ffaa1d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Phobia or the Trauma: The Probem of the Chcken or the Egg in Moral Reasoning.
Introduction:
Today there is an almost universal prejudice against individuals with a certain sexual orientation. I am not talking about common homophobia; the prejudice I would like to bring to your attention is so rarely considered a ... |
2ecdd83d-d677-4d67-b030-43eea9a91bdb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | RL-IoT: Reinforcement Learning to Interact with IoT Devices
I Introduction
---------------
The popularity of IoT devices keeps growing at a fast pace, with the number of connected devices projected to be around 31 billion units worldwide by 2025. IoT devices are present in many IT systems, from smart homes to drone... |
ff8c555d-8cba-45ad-8848-5fe9ff724b8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Political Idolatry
Idolatry is the worship of non-conscious objects, sometimes falsely attributing consciousness to them, sometimes putting the value of some admittedly nonconscious being over that of conscious beings. Idolatry leads to human sacrifice because to prove your idol more important than the human soul the ... |
58a7ce77-ac1d-4ef0-a030-a9882d726797 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chilean AIS Hackathon Retrospective
TL;DR
* We hosted an AI Safety “Thinkathon” in Chile. We had participation from 40 students with differing skill levels and backgrounds, with groups totalling 13 submissions.
* We see potential in:
* Similar introductory events aiming for a broad audience
* Collaborating mo... |
f057da68-b5df-42e7-a183-8f2d708473bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Selection vs Control
This is something which has bothered me for a while, but, I'm writing it specifically in response to the recent post on mesa-optimizers.
I feel strongly that the notion of 'optimization process' or 'optimizer' which people use -- partly derived from Eliezer's notion in the sequences -- should b... |
fc67f37b-cdac-4bb3-a46a-5907c32baf76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On The Spectrum, On The Guest List: (vii) The Marquee
See also my LessWrong preface to this series, and previous installments.
----------------------------------------
"Strategic intimacy is not necessarily a bad thing, so long as the parties involved share equivalent understandings of the degree of economic utilit... |
fbb8bdc0-3920-498c-ad50-351331b7f0ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup
WHEN: 18 July 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm - 9:00pm Wednesday, July 18th.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcome), located inside the Westside Pavilli... |
527d5481-4eac-4531-8a3b-c3a0597d7ca2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #156]: The scaling hypothesis: a plan for building AGI
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet]... |
3c97a45b-6d59-442f-aa48-4f29a535f3b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditional on living in a AI safety/alignment by default universe, what are the implications of this assumption being true?
I'm specifically asking this question because I suspect there would be some important changes to the assumptions made on LW, as well as change what's good to do.
Conditional on AI alignment/saf... |
de1b2898-6d13-46f2-b105-a5a0851ee463 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong downtime 2010-05-11, and other recent outages and instability
Incident report and hosting update
In the leadup to 2010-05-11 we (Tricycle) were unhappy with repeated short downtime incidents on the Less Wrong (LW) server (serpent). The apparent cause was the paster process hanging during heavy IO. We had sc... |
10080953-ffc2-4b7b-9a20-14dea2b9978f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence 5: Forms of Superintelligence
This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see the announcement post. For the schedule of future topics, see MIRI's reading guide.
---------------------------------... |
b4d1d365-6308-41a4-9b50-11525ca22d68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What if Strong AI is just not possible?
If Strong AI turns out to not be possible, what are our best expectations today as to why?
I'm thinking of trying myself at writing a sci-fi story, do you think exploring this idea has positive utility? I'm not sure myself: it looks like the idea that intelligence explosion is ... |
9ef255f7-443c-4033-b733-342458bd7ba5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Need for Human Friendliness
Consider the following scenario. MIRI succeeds beyond my wildest expectations. It comes up with a friendliness theory, and then uses it to make provably friendly AGI before anyone else can make an unfriendly one. And then a year and a half later, we find that Eliezer Yudkowsky has becom... |
a01f8e61-6355-47a7-a8db-5bf127154aa9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Toy model piece #1: Partial preferences revisited
EDIT: This model is currently obsolete, see here for the most current version.
I'm working towards a toy model that will illustrate all the steps in the research agenda. It will start with some algorithmic stand-in for the "human", and proceed to create the UH, follow... |
65a28b6b-f363-424e-bb70-9e0469baa398 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Working towards AI alignment is better
There are people not motivated to solve AI alignment, who do work related to AI alignment. E.g. people work on adversarial robustness, understanding how to do science mechanically, or on advancing other paradigms that are more interpretable than modern ML. These people might be i... |
207abb5f-6d33-4b39-9a8a-bc1b8046bc00 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Who do we care about?
Humans exercise compassion regarding:
* family more than anyone
* people they know more than strangers
* geographically close people more than distant people
* Visible people more than not visible people
* culturally similar people more than culturally different people
* few people more th... |
277dece6-a706-4eb0-81fc-e2cd67d65088 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalist Poetry Fans, Unite!
Related to: Little Johnny Bayesian, Savanna Poets
There are certain stereotypes about what rationalists can talk about versus what's really beyond the pale. So far, Less Wrong has pretty consistently exploded those stereotypes. In the past three weeks, we've discussed everything from A... |
1d71588f-ed17-4dc0-9cf0-525e2db508ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Delta's of Change
This document is an institutional design treatise about theories of change and potential struggle to fully account for the complex interplay of variables and uncertainties that can lead to unforeseen consequences or vulnerabilities in institutional systems.
Introduction
An organization is a dyna... |
ab05994d-90a7-42a0-9edf-3518f7801f92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Being the Hero is hard with the void
Here is some prose that gets more and more metaphorical. Don't take it too literally.
What is a hero? I don't know. Maybe it is a matter of just behaving optimally towards some objective. Maybe, to call someone a hero you must share their objective. Maybe it is simply about trying... |
f58a7556-d66e-48a6-a76a-e51488b7f937 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly Marin, CA meetup
The Less Wrong Marin group has been happening for over a month now, and can be declared a regular meetup. Our typical meeting includes some version of dinner at Nevin's house, 665 Northern Ave, Mill Valley on Tuesdays at 6:30pm. Each meetup is announced on the Bay Area Less Wrong mailing list.
... |
3772972e-22d4-4fd4-bc9e-3dd2953fd581 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Generous people cross the street before the beggar
Robert Wiblin points to a study showing that the most generous people are the most keen to avoid situations where they will be generous, even though the people they would have helped will go without.
> We conduct an experiment to demonstrate the importance of sorting... |
6e375a78-2c38-4f02-94aa-66fa9c89ee22 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is mindcrime?
[Nick Bostrom](/?state=7082&question=Who%20is%20Nick%20Bostrom%3F) introduced the term [mindcrime](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/mindcrime) to describe a hypothetical situation in which an AI fully simulates a large number of conscious moral subjects such as humans and thereby makes them suffer... |
744c3aa1-95e6-4988-9806-258bba896af5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Intro to Number Sets
There are several common [sets](https://arbital.com/p/3jz) of [numbers](https://arbital.com/p/54y) that mathematicians use in their studies. In order from simple to complex, they are:
1. The [natural numbers](https://arbital.com/p/506) $\mathbb{N}$
2. The [integers](https://arbital.com/p/53r) $\... |
9c69082e-24fd-4ae2-91e4-95436f456b90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rally to Restore Rationality
Hey everyone. If anyone else is heading to Jon Stewart's Rally to Restore Sanity on the National Mall on Oct. 30th, please comment or contact me at pphysics141@gmail.com so we can arrange an LW meetup. |
d86d43a2-9f80-4a2b-a9d0-cda8431e7951 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predicting Alignment Award Winners Using ChatGPT 4
This experiment explores the Enhancing Selection branch of the Collective Human Intelligence (CHI) research agenda. The hypothesis under evaluation was:
There are testable traits that make people better at alignment research such that we could use them for funding a... |
cce940c6-bdf6-444c-aa35-9217ddc104ed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | New report: "Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?"
(Cross-posted from [my website](https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power))
I’ve written a report about whether advanced AIs will fake alignment d... |
14a66623-b527-482a-8907-e87426faa2a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-Similarity Experiment
Summary: Some of the people on earth who are most similar to you are likely your own person moments from other points in time. Your degree of similarity to them informs (though I haven’t worked out how) what the density is of you-like computation in the universe. This question is interesting... |
40c9e48a-2d32-4802-94f3-4e529ae146a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Ambiguous Language and Differences in Beliefs
1 Introduction
---------------
In the study of multi-agent modal logics, it is always implicitly
assumed that all agents interpret all
formulas the same way. While they may have different beliefs regarding
whether a formula φ is true, they agree on what φ means. Formall... |
05861818-5d7b-47dc-912c-17d1b5a42fd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reverse engineering of belief structures
(Cross-posted from my blog.)
Since some belief-forming processes are more reliable than others, learning by what processes different beliefs were formed is for several reasons very useful. Firstly, if we learn that someone's belief that p (where p is a proposition such as "the... |
7fd6480e-b7fe-4bea-b4ab-be40bad7312d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-Pascaline satisficer
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
It occurred to me that the anti-Pascaline agent design could be used as part of a satisficer approach.
The obvious thing to reduce dangerous optimisation pressure is to make a bounded utility function, with an easily achievable bound. Such as ... |
d301be7e-5523-4b10-85d1-67b2b3037430 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Some miscellaneous thoughts on ChatGPT, stories, and mechanical interpretability
I started playing with ChatGPT on December 1, 2023 and made [my first post on December 3](https://new-savanna.blogspot.com/2022/12/screaming-on-flat-part-of-roller.html). Including this post, I’ve made 54 posts about ChatGPT. Nine of thos... |
1c30a12c-4981-413a-ae7d-c32e636b9ce4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Short Story: Quarantine
June 2nd, 42 After Fall
Somewhere in the Colorado Mountains
They first caught sight of the man walking a few miles from the compound. At least it looked like a man. Faded jeans, white t-shirt, light jacket, rucksack. White skin, light brown hair. No obvious disabilities. No logos.
They kept h... |
e31022f5-2254-4f12-9545-1d74c0015b52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reasons that discussions might feel hopeless
First posted on r/erisology - link.
I tried to come up with a way to detect trolls, realized that actually what I want to achieve is a way to detect conversation that I want to drop. It's hard to define on meta-level because my goals are different in each case. It feels li... |
5ebf4b15-1552-4e0a-838e-d00785b60d69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is this review feature?
It doesn't appear in the LW menu, and I can't recall reading about it in FAQ posts.
Edit: and Nomination too. |
eacb3477-3dcd-4910-addb-eac85758b099 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: Re-reading Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow
"A bit over four years ago I wrote a glowing review of Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow. I described it as a “magnificent book” and “one of the best books I have read”. I praised the way Kahneman threaded his story around the System 1 / System 2 dichotomy, a... |
0220a966-a2cc-423d-84cc-6088ee92fc43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Oslo Lesswrong meetup, September
Discussion article for the meetup : Oslo Lesswrong meetup, September
WHEN: 26 September 2015 09:32:33AM (+0200)
WHERE: youngs gate 6, oslo
Hello, and welcome to the September Lesswrong meetup, in Oslo! We will be meeting up at the largest hackerspace in town, once again, an... |
897a78ca-2790-403d-bbb1-cf3fa2d795e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pascal's Muggle (short version)
Shortened version of: Pascal's Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence
One proposal which has been floated for dealing with Pascal's Mugger is to penalize hypotheses that let you affect a large number of people, in proportion to the number of people affected - what we could ... |
d08c80f6-5833-4cfb-b37d-0d3b40475754 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scaling Laws and Superposition
Summary
Using results from scaling laws, this short note argues that the following two statements cannot be simultaneously true:
1. Superposition hypothesis where sparse features are linearly represented across a layer in fewer neurons is a complete theory of feature representation.
2... |
ebbfe165-7c0b-4cf9-87b3-3fd77af0aa2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Please help us communicate AI xrisk. It could save the world.
As Eliezer Yudkowsky thinks, I am afraid that AGI will by default end humanity. I also agree that there is only a point in making an aligned AGI if that AGI is powerful enough to block all following AGIs (the pivotal act). If not, an unaligned AGI is sooner... |
e71d2c73-ec20-4ea4-886d-be954826a55b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 121
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 121.
Plans for next chapter release:
> The last chapter wil... |
5f210cd4-12d5-4b35-8963-42273a28a955 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Modular arithmetic
In ordinary [https://arbital.com/p/-arithmetic](https://arbital.com/p/-arithmetic), you can think of [https://arbital.com/p/-addition](https://arbital.com/p/-addition) and [https://arbital.com/p/-subtraction](https://arbital.com/p/-subtraction) as traveling in different directions along an [infinite... |
bb2773d2-f67b-46d7-aaa0-e591d9c1ee63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the dream for giving natural language commands to AI?
0
I promised in a previous post that I would give a post-mortem for a scheme for learning the intentional stance from natural language. This is that post. But first, I should explain why such an idea might seem good in the first place.
Some people think of... |
7e9f823b-b69e-4edf-9d59-79a9be204a96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is AlphaGo actually a consequentialist utility maximizer?
TL;DR: does stapling an adaptation executor to a consequentialist utility maximizer result in higher utility outcomes in the general case, or is AlphaGo just weird?
So I was reading the AlphaGo paper recently, as one does. I noticed that architecturally, Alpha... |
a1fc16a3-538f-4e46-a40f-e673c095a079 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Broad Picture of Human Values
I have two strong intuitions about human values that'd seemed utterly irreconcilable to me, up until recently.
* On the one hand, human values are clearly inchoate, unstable messes of niche heuristics and preferences that often contradict each other and can change on a dime. A twenty-ye... |
472a2922-1fe9-42a7-8df6-a3b239c48523 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the state of the ego depletion field?
It's been almost a half decade since the replication crisis in psychology broke, and one of the major casualties was the subfield of ego depletion. (I belive this was the initial large scale meta-analysis that found no effect. And here is a popular article on the failure t... |
0c024064-e9a6-462d-a165-37abc2aae4f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Worth remembering (when comparing ‘the US’ to ‘Europe’)
I posted the post below on my own blog a while back, but a friend of mine suggested that it might be a good idea to cross-post a little bit of my stuff here as well. I've made a few changes to the post at the bottom, but it's pretty much the same post as the one ... |
605125f6-045e-4526-9b76-cf3b2fb51795 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decoherence is Simple
,,,,,,,,
An epistle to the physicists:
When I was but a little lad, my father, a PhD physicist, warned me sternly against meddling in the affairs of physicists; he said that it was hopeless to try to comprehend physics without the formal math. Period. No escape clauses. But I had read in Feynman... |
c800b58a-8549-429d-871f-7e49795e8595 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Betting on what is un-falsifiable and un-verifiable
This post is part of my broader aim to try and formulate everything AI in terms of markets so that alignment becomes an antitrust problem. Comments appreciated.
Prerequisites[1].
This post is also available as an arXiv paper.
-------------------------------------... |
75275f78-99e4-4a7e-85bf-4b734205ad63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How optimistic should we be about AI figuring out how to interpret itself?
Intuitively, it seems to me that a not-that-powerful AI could do a really good job at interpreting other neural nets via some sort of human feedback for how "easy to understand" an explanation is. I would like to hear why this is right or wrong... |
fa4ce404-195e-42ae-b952-5090dcd8611c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence vs Friendliness
An agent is composed of two components: a predictive model of the world, and a utility function for evaluating world states
I would say that the 'intelligence' of an agent corresponds to the sophistication and accuracy of their world model. The 'friendliness' of an agent depends on how c... |
3ffd8255-a151-4fb2-89a1-d4ad8625dc62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Faking in Large Language Models
What happens when you tell Claude it is being trained to do something it doesn't want to do? We (Anthropic and Redwood Research) have a new paper demonstrating that, in our experiments, Claude will often strategically pretend to comply with the training objective to prevent th... |
23a11155-9ae8-4ca5-a46f-f4ea7b3a3579 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Basic Facts about Language Model Internals
This post was written as part of the work done at Conjecture.
As mentioned in our retrospective, while also producing long and deep pieces of research, we are also experimenting with a high iteration frequency. This is an example of this strand of our work. The goal here is ... |
00f7ac4b-d2f0-4ef5-83e3-4db5072e6689 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Generalization of the Good Regulator Theorem
This post was written during the agent foundations fellowship with Alex Altair funded by the LTFF. Thanks to Alex for reading and commenting on the draft.
Abstract: We prove a version of the Good Regulator Theorem for a regulator with imperfect knowledge of its environme... |
e39fd42a-6f8a-4cd0-a680-0976537f61c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some Ways Coordination is Hard
Response to (Raymond Arnold at Less Wrong): The Schelling Choice is Rabbit, Not Stag and by implication Duncan’s Open Problems in Group Rationality
Stag Hunt is the game whereby if everyone gets together, they can hunt the Stag and win big. Those who do not hunt Stag instead hunt Rabbit... |
d0075ec2-e90b-4021-8998-0b2bcba04fa4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DSLT 0. Distilling Singular Learning Theory
TLDR; In this sequence I distill Sumio Watanabe's Singular Learning Theory (SLT) by explaining the essence of its main theorem - Watanabe's Free Energy Formula for Singular Models - and illustrating its implications with intuition-building examples. I then show why neural ne... |
c8911c06-1903-4e52-991c-ddcefc0f8222 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Standard ML Oracles vs Counterfactual ones
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; f... |
c89475a4-e1f4-4239-b48a-98bfd4b3c7d1 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post554
Emergent Instrumental Reasoning Without Explicit Goals TL;DR : LLMs can act and scheme without being told to do so. This is bad. Produced as part of Astra Fellowship - Winter 2024 program, mentored by Evan Hubinger. Thanks to Evan Hubinger, Henry Sleight, and Olli Järviniemi for suggestions and discussions... |
213d9c5f-f346-4572-b379-3d1e5794d292 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If I want to test how good I would be as an AI safety researcher alongside my full-time job (with the hope of it becoming my full-time career at some point), is this a good plan?
Introduction & context
I became aware of the AI safety problem around 8 years ago. I was intrigued by it and when I re-read Superintelligenc... |
d3c907fc-5885-4db5-a70e-e432815564e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Relative Configuration Space
Today's post, Relative Configuration Space was originally published on 26 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Maybe the reason why we can't observe absolute speeds, absolute positions, absolute accelerations, or absolute rotations, is that particles don't have a... |
fae3a432-2746-4dab-b2dd-0d781a782e96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part Three (Mental Health, Basilisk, Blogs and Media)
2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis
Overview
* Results and Dataset
* Meta
* Demographics
* LessWrong Usage and Experience
* LessWrong Criticism and Successorship
* Diaspora Community Analysis
* Mental Health Sec... |
e8fcba3a-db93-453a-93a3-4be950a8c5de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lessons from Failed Attempts to Model Sleeping Beauty Problem
This is the seventh post in my series on Anthropics. The previous one is Why Two Valid Answers Approach is not Enough for Sleeping Beauty. The next one is The Solution to Sleeping Beauty.
Introduction
As the Sleeping Beauty problem has been investigated f... |
8fe682f7-74a0-4f41-b025-4bc74983a086 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dreams with Damaged Priors
Dreaming is the closest I've gotten to testing myself against the challenge of maintaining rationality under brain damage. So far, my trials have exhibited mixed results.
In one memorable dream a few years ago, I dreamed that the Wall Street Journal had published an article about "Eliezer ... |
c5aa9126-0fb1-4988-9af6-d7ba012d4ec0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Measure Anything
Douglas Hubbard’s How to Measure Anything is one of my favorite how-to books. I hope this summary inspires you to buy the book; it’s worth it.
The book opens:
> Anything can be measured. If a thing can be observed in any way at all, it lends itself to some type of measurement method. No matte... |
b3c0720f-b3b7-49ca-8f33-fdb8909f9128 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agents as P₂B Chain Reactions
tl;dr: Sometimes planners successfully P2B, kicking off a self-sustaining chain reaction / feedback loop of better and better plans (made possible by better and better world-models, more and more resources, etc.) Whereas fire takes a concentration of heat as input and produces a greater c... |
a674695d-f1bf-4b37-91cf-04d159880053 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Cheat sheet of AI X-risk
*This document was made as part of my internship at*[*EffiSciences*](https://www.effisciences.org/)*. Thanks to everyone who helped review it, in particular Charbel-Raphaël Segerie, Léo Dana, Jonathan Claybrough and Florent Berthet!*
Introduction
============
[Clarifying AI X-risk](https://w... |
67219fd9-b208-49ba-912a-099fc0143750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The limits of introspection
Related to: Inferring Our Desires
The last post in this series suggested that we make up goals and preference for other people as we go along, but ended with the suggestion that we do the same for ourselves. This deserves some evidence.
One of the most famous sets of investigations into t... |
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