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d01d7ec5-cf40-45a6-ba4d-1737651c8232 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What epsilon do you subtract from "certainty" in your own probability estimates?
Ok, nobody is actually a strict, or even particularly careful bayesean reasoner. Still, what probability do you reserve to "my model doesn't apply, everything I know is wrong"? If you SEE a coin flip come up heads (and examine the coin ... |
bd379271-84f7-4fe3-bfed-b285b14191cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing Timaeus
Timaeus is a new AI safety research organization dedicated to making fundamental breakthroughs in technical AI alignment using deep ideas from mathematics and the sciences. Currently, we are working on singular learning theory and developmental interpretability. Over time we expect to work on a broa... |
2020d0fd-7aa4-4a8c-92cd-1d8a8ce986e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Idea: medical hypotheses app for mysterious chronic illnesses
(This post is not up to my usual standards but I was encouraged to publish it anyway to get feedback on the idea.)
I have been ill for the past four years with a mysterious chronic illness. One of the things that I keep thinking would be nice to have (but ... |
6e01c606-34f1-4ba4-a38c-c2c0bfb6fe5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Holden Karnofsky, GiveWell: Sequence Thinking vs. Cluster Thinking
http://blog.givewell.org/2014/06/10/sequence-thinking-vs-cluster-thinking/
A long post, here's the key thesis:
I believe our approach is justified, and in order to explain why – consistent with the project of laying out the basic worldview and... |
944e94d0-103b-4893-8d0a-ddf6a1e15ecd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality: An Introduction
In the autumn of 1951, a football game between Dartmouth and Princeton turned unusually rough. A pair of psychologists, Dartmouth’s Albert Hastorf and Princeton’s Hadley Cantril, decided to ask students from both schools which team had initiated the rough play. Nearly everyone agreed that ... |
9cdae2cf-ddaf-455b-905a-4a559d5517d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Sydney pub meetups and Lesswrong Dojos
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequently ... |
147dd166-577a-4330-85ab-ff1a33fd8765 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What did AI Safety’s specific funding of AGI R&D labs lead to?
Funding I found after some googling:
* Tallinn's (and Musk’s) seed investments in DeepMind¹
* OpenPhil's $30M grant to OpenAI²
* FTX's $500M³, Tallinn's, Moskovitz’(and Schmidt’s)⁴ investments in Anthropic
I’m curious how you consider the consequenc... |
35fe19f1-9751-4764-b6ac-aba9f8a8762a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Red Teaming Climate Change Research - Should someone be red-teaming Rationality/EA too?
|
ad5a1c8b-0898-46dc-9e1b-91332fb16e5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #132]: Complex and subtly incorrect arguments as an obstacle to debate
[AN #132]: Complex and subtly incorrect arguments as an obstacle to debate Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world
View this email in your browser
Newsletter #132
Alignment ... |
ad2b421c-b513-42dc-b1d5-6be4630d9d3f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recursive Middle Manager Hell
I think Zvi's Immoral Mazes sequence is really important, but comes with more worldview-assumptions than are necessary to make the points actionable. I conceptualize Zvi as arguing for multiple hypotheses. In this post I want to articulate one sub-hypothesis, which I call "Recursive Middl... |
c7e762d6-90b0-476c-a78b-70f2dc39764b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Test meetup please ignore
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore
WHEN: 27 March 2017 11:18:40AM (-0700)
WHERE: antartica
sorry
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore |
f021003d-9e33-4507-bd58-e10222722858 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Reminder of the rules of Stag Hunt:Each player chooses to hunt either Rabbit or StagPlayers who choose Rabbit receive a small reward regardless of what everyone else choosesPlayers who choose Stag receive a large reward if-and-only-if everyone else chooses Stag. If even a single player chooses Rabbit, then all the Sta... |
a878b3c5-b60f-47fd-8632-b40df05393d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] "Upload", a video-conference between a girl and her dead grandfather
I made a video last month, which when I mentioned in another thread someone said I should post as a top level discussion.
It's just a ten minute zero-budget thing I wrote in which a girl has a video conference with her dead and backed-up-then... |
df16675b-2b27-41dd-8bc9-a13cd7a26744 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | To Trust Or Not To Trust A Classifier
1 Introduction
---------------
Machine learning (ML) is a powerful and widely-used tool for making potentially important decisions, from product recommendations to medical diagnosis. However, despite ML’s impressive performance, it makes mistakes, with some more costly than oth... |
833a0019-dd74-4f2d-bda5-bc5071a374af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Great Karma Reckoning
Today the LessWrong team ran a script that recalculated the scores and karma of all posts, comments, tags and users based on the complete vote history. This has resulted in very substantial changes to all the karma scores on the site. Here are the biggest changes:
* We removed the historic... |
08451da2-d82f-4e8f-b8d3-ff414e49ff44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for proposals for Musk/FLI grants
As a follow-on to the recent thread on purchasing research effectively, I thought it'd make sense to post the request for proposals for projects to be funded by Musk's $10M donation. LessWrong's been a place for discussing long-term AI safety and research for quite some time, ... |
2c8011cb-91f8-4e8e-a665-2a57960a1bbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why is it valuable to know whether space colonization is feasible?
None |
4db0e483-2942-4a19-85a6-f4dfc6c91eda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang
The primary purpose of this blog post is to create a public record. Some technical insights are deliberately omitted.
I think we're in an algorithmic AI overhang.
1. Today's neural networks (including GPT) are so data inefficient they will not strictly outcompete human... |
220b8659-0f71-44b5-95b2-f5619e15f5d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New arm of GiveWell Research: GiveWell Labs [Link]
Announcing GiveWell Labs
> We’re now launching a new initiative within GiveWell that will not be subject to either of these constraints. We plan to invest about 25% of our research time in what we’re calling GiveWell Labs: an arm of our research process that will be ... |
622d7aed-d00e-40f4-b9d3-8c49c429b2a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When is it ever rational to enter a sweepstakes where you may have a 1/10,000 chance of winning?
It may be free to enter the sweepstakes, but it costs time to enter the sweepstakes. So the time is the first part of the cost. Then you may also have monitoring costs as well (if you monitor the progress of the sweepstake... |
827f7efb-8e79-4d7b-a86c-eda7f76604f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 42 - Owain Evans on LLM Psychology
YouTube link
Earlier this year, the paper “Emergent Misalignment” made the rounds on AI x-risk social media for seemingly showing LLMs generalizing from ‘misaligned’ training data of insecure code to acting comically evil in response to innocuous questions. In this epis... |
cf633a0f-4497-4e96-81d6-2a40b0fe8cd7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learner-aware Teaching: Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Preferences and Constraints
1 Introduction
---------------
Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) enables a learning agent (*learner*) to acquire skills from observations of a *teacher*’s demonstrations. The learner infers a
reward function explaining the de... |
34762b65-e0c3-4438-85f8-e970825eb777 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment Newsletter #17
**Highlights**
**[Differentiable Image Parameterizations](https://distill.pub/2018/differentiable-parameterizations/)** *(Alexander Mordvintsev et al)*: There are lots of techniques for generating images using neural nets. A common approach is to take a neural net trained to classify images, ... |
5ce53439-6e25-4544-b833-c596e0f5f509 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pornographic and semi-pornographic ads on mainstream websites as an instance of the AI alignment problem?
In recent days, I have been served ads on Twitter that appeared to be advertising some kind of dating site. While technically I wouldn't say that they crossed the line into being actually pornographic, they did sk... |
fca0d645-d1ae-4848-b026-e8692c2ca1f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 14 - Infra-Bayesian Physicalism with Vanessa Kosoy
YouTube link
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I (Daniel Filan) have conversations with researchers about their research. We discuss their work and hopefully get a sense of why it’s been... |
b4a77137-8791-4bf1-a6d6-f7e0093063ec | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3755
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . Jessica presented a system learning only from positive examples. Given examples of burritos, it computes a distribution b over possible burritos. When it comes to creating its own burritos, however, it can only construct them from the feasible set f . The t... |
ed42337d-c7d9-4bdb-9459-c5ef1ada718e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transforming myopic optimization to ordinary optimization - Do we want to seek convergence for myopic optimization problems?
While reading some papers, I found a way to take a myopic optimization problem L, and construct a non-myopic optimization problem L∗ whose optima match the fixed points of the original problem L... |
1bd493e7-4ffa-4df4-bcce-95c54c1bd6bb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Mlyyrczo
This blog post is not intended for direct human consumption. The intended method for interacting with the information contained within is **indirectly**, via an LLM (large language model) trained on this document. LLMs are not yet [2022-12-25] powerful enough to emulate mlyyrczo correctly. This document is in... |
050b60e8-d3b5-4e32-ac4c-bb19405c6ba1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | overengineered air filter shelving
Let's consider air purifier design a bit.
preface
This post is about a potential new category of air purifier, but existing air purifiers are already worth using. You should probably have at least one at your home. For larger rooms, the Levoit Vital 200S-P is a reasonable option; t... |
252f3954-a73d-4c6e-ace2-b31f274ea286 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Appendix] Natural Abstractions: Key Claims, Theorems, and Critiques
This is the appendix to Natural Abstractions: Key Claims, Theorems, and Critiques. It contains additional details that we expect are only relevant to some readers. We also have a pdf with more mathematical details, which contains the proofs of the Te... |
41e79236-4b68-41b0-b5fd-4617175e520a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Who are the LW editors?
Do we have a published list of the users who are editors?
|
2b17db2f-0ea0-4b6f-b446-2dbc80c14b5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Humor] [Link] Eclipse Maid, a posthuman maid role-playing game
What do you get when you put together Eclipse Phase, the science-fiction RPG of posthuman horror, and Maid, the light comedy anime-themed RPG? The answer, of course, is... Eclipse Maid.
> In the distant future, humanity's age has passed. Runaway technolo... |
05a56f71-7e0c-4af8-a11d-7b815027dcc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The challenge of writing Utopia
The story itself has been posted here.
Tomorrow, to celebrate a certain well-known event, I'll be posting another story of a Utopia. Unlike the previous attempt, this is utopia on hard mode.
What does that mean? Well, utopias are pretty hard to write anyway. Writing needs challenges f... |
712d9ced-f381-42dd-8c77-c0399836c44e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First Purdue Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : First Purdue Meetup
WHEN: 11 January 2013 06:50:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Purdue University - HICKS library
Several times, I've tried to get a meetup started at Purdue. However, each time I post on LW that there might be a meetup if enough people comment an... |
3299ae4a-213b-4232-9bb9-1e9d1bd45b94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Action vs. inaction
2 weeks ago, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force came out with new recommendations on breast cancer screening, including, "The USPSTF recommends against routine screening mammography in women aged 40 to 49 years."
The report says that you need to screen 1904 women for breast cancer to save one... |
fe17a67e-a180-491d-9b4c-38cdc96d6c90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links digest, 2023-08-17: Cloud seeding, robotic sculptors, and rogue planets
Opportunities
* Academic biotech founders: apply for Nucleate’s Activator program (via @kulesatony)
News & announcements
* Neuralink raises $280M Series D led by Founders Fund
* Waymo and Cruise have been approved to operate ro... |
052968e8-7b90-4900-aeb5-46fa6fb43556 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Deep learning curriculum for large language model alignment
This is a deep learning curriculum with a focus on topics relevant to large language model alignment. It is centered around papers and exercises, and is biased towards my own tastes.
It is targeted at newcomers to deep learning who are already familiar with ... |
db2bc8a3-2fd7-4471-8eb5-5120f9abb0d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Carl Shulman on The Lunar Society (7 hour, two-part podcast)
Dwarkesh's summary for part 1:
> In terms of the depth and range of topics, this episode is the best I’ve done.
>
> No part of my worldview is the same after talking with Carl Shulman. He's the most interesting intellectual you've never heard of.
>
> We e... |
8c1eab7c-f5f7-4ce0-ae76-140247faadd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preserving Epistemic Novelty in AI: Experiments, Insights, and the Case for Decentralized Collective Intelligence
Introduction
In my recent experiments with AI models, I have encountered a fundamental problem: even when novel epistemic insights are introduced into AI interactions, the models tend to “flatten” or refra... |
06becc39-dbb8-4e6d-bf39-2b94b26ec72e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does This Fallacy Have A Name?
As I have been going about my rationalist training, I have noticed a fallacy which I can’t find the name of. My aim is to describe it to all you smart people who know more than I do in hopes that someone can give me the proper name for it. If, indeed, I have found something that constitu... |
3fe9c523-bca1-4889-b49a-9e9915b9362d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Announcing the AI Safety Nudge Competition to Help Beat Procrastination
**Have you achieved your goal? Fill in**[**this form**](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeXq1S5Qwdozhkk9YUbIxez34OW29Hgi_unYZBuFDl1TUKgBQ/viewform?usp=sharing) **to be added to the prize draw!**
Have you been postponing doing alignment w... |
d8229a1f-ffcc-4a25-b965-9a3fe9b12ad4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities
### **Preamble:**
(If you're already familiar with all basics and don't want any preamble, skip ahead to [Section B](#Section_B_) for technical difficulties of alignment proper.)
I have several times failed to write up a well-organized list of reasons why AGI will kill you. People co... |
b9fad8cc-74ea-4c7e-ab2d-60b03943f551 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Challenges to Christiano’s capability amplification proposal
.comment-box {
background: #F2F2F2;
border: 1px solid rgba(0,0,0,.1);
}
.comment-box .user-name {
font-weight: 600;
font-family: Calibri,Gill Sans,Gill Sans MT,Myriad Pro,Myriad,DejaVu Sans Condensed,Liberation Sans,Nimbus Sans L,Tahoma,Geneva,Helvetica ... |
bf753cf1-226b-4bee-979a-6447b01583c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overcoming Decision Anxiety
I get pretty anxious about open-ended decisions. I often spend an unacceptable amount of time agonizing over things like what design options to get on a custom suit, or what kind of job I want to pursue, or what apartment I want to live in. Some of these decisions are obviously important on... |
47b8e525-a755-4c6a-83f4-d004f99453f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Desperation
The next three posts will discuss what I dub the three dubious virtues: desperation, recklessness, and defiance. I call them dubious, because each can easily turn into a vice if used incorrectly or excessively. As you read these posts, keep in mind the law of equal and opposite advice. Though these virtues... |
830697e6-c692-48c3-9e62-84a793058c3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflective consistency, randomized decisions, and the dangers of unrealistic thought experiments
A recent post by Ape in the coat on Anthropical Paradoxes are Paradoxes of Probability Theory re-examines an old problem presented by Eliezer Yudkowsky in Outlawing Anthropics: An Updateless Dilemma. Both posts purport to ... |
73349607-e6fc-4502-8321-f7b4ab1101e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A different dictionary
I enjoyed James Somers account (HT Liron Shapira) of how Webster’s dictionary used to be much more beautiful than dictionaries today, for instance:
> “…Flashing differs from exploding or disploding in not being accompanied with a loud report. To glisten, or glister, is to shine with a soft and ... |
b900d57f-6245-46fb-8692-568dcea6b306 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Anthropic's Core Views on AI Safety
> We founded Anthropic because we believe the impact of AI might be comparable to that of the industrial and scientific revolutions, but we aren’t confident it will go well. And we also believe this level of impact could start to arrive soon – perhaps in the coming decade.
>
> This... |
34517029-99f7-4593-8cb2-7c9a68c0a88d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Designing Disaggregated Evaluations of AI Systems: Choices, Considerations, and Tradeoffs
Introduction
------------
AI systems are a central part of modern life—even in high-stakes
domains like education, employment, and healthcare. However, several
pieces of work have demonstrated that AI systems can perform
diffe... |
0e4f435b-1a03-4bea-a286-f9b3b825253a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Two-Update Problem, Part 3
Relevant posts: Part 1, Part 2, No good conditional, Monotonicity.
In the previous two parts of this sequence, I described the two different forms of the two-update problem and the attempt to solve them both at the same time by starting with a prior that knows nothing about logic and up... |
37a2cf34-7d42-450e-be94-30850496d188 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Fast Context Adaptation via Meta-Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
A key challenge in meta-learning is fast adaptation: learning on previously unseen tasks fast and with little data.
In principle, this can be achieved by leveraging knowledge obtained in other, related tasks. However, the best way to do so rem... |
f9d04a95-cd64-4953-858b-dec5664f68db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Online Learning 2: Bandit learning with catastrophes
Note: This describes an idea of Jessica Taylor's.
The usual training procedures for machine learning models are not always well-equipped to avoid rare catastrophes. In order to maintain the safety of powerful AI systems, it will be important to have training proced... |
d4398669-192c-4351-9796-28e70d285876 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Question on decoherence and virtual particles
Doing some insomniac reading of the Quantum Sequence, I think that I've gotten a reasonable grasp of the principles of decoherence, non-interacting bundles of amplitude, etc. I then tried to put that knowledge to work by comparing it with my understanding of virtual partic... |
e90ff7b9-bc67-459c-91a8-50f1fd42b736 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2025 Q3 Pivotal Research Fellowship: Applications Open
We are now accepting applications for the Pivotal 2025 Q3 Research Fellowship, a 9-week, fully funded research program for technical AI safety, AI governance and policy, technical AI governance, and AI-Bio.
Dates: June 30 – August 29, 2025
Location: London, at th... |
6b91ba38-b1e7-4771-9c8d-3318806660fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Abstract/Distant Future Bias
Today's post, Abstract/Distant Future Bias was originally published on November 26, 2008. A summary:
> An introduction to the idea of Near vs Far mode reasoning.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the Rerunning ... |
5be58cc7-75b4-4bd2-8ab1-d6d6a1164d66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What conclusions can be drawn from a single observation about wealth in tennis?
I was recently watching a tennis exhibition match between Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro when the commentators pointed out that both of these top-ten players come from billionaire families. Naturally, I quickly get to wondering what we re... |
e509e4cc-bc24-44b8-bb96-d58977505abf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experience Report - ML4Good AI Safety Bootcamp
In this post I reflect on my experience in participating at a ML4Good (UK, March 2024) bootcamp. I am writing this mainly for my own benefit - to reflect and to start making a habit of engaging with the community on lesswrong. But also to help future participants. If ther... |
0d82faa5-eb14-4f42-8097-6ac62e3f527e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Assorted thoughts on the coronavirus
Epistemic status: Ramblings. Sorry for the tone. It was easier to write this way. I promise I won't be stubborn about any of this in the comments.
Is it that bad?
After reading Mr. Money Mustache's take on the coronavirus, I started having a few doubts about how bad it actually i... |
209ab35c-7b19-40b6-abea-5e011d061221 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human level AI can plausibly take over the world
TL:DR:The world is vulnerable to takeover by a human level AI that can copy/paste itself to run perhaps 1M+ instances across all current large AI inference systems.
Existing governments work because they have a monopoly on violence. People expect the rules will be enfo... |
1d2c7f55-b63a-4e42-ab87-7b0f936fb0f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Berkeley REACH Supporters Update: September 2018
Since our big fundraising push at the end of June (thanks!), REACH has been making progress on a number of fronts.
Finances & Structure
The June fundraising push let us commit to a 13-month lease (Aug 1, 2018 - Aug 31, 2019).
In June, we raised about $18k in one time... |
882165fc-50cc-407c-95c0-8ca43ed7c6ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How polysemantic can one neuron be? Investigating features in TinyStories.
Summary
I use a pre-trained Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) to examine some features in a 33M-parameter, 2-layer TinyStories language model. I look at how frequently SAE features occur in the dataset and examine how the features are distributed over t... |
279f693c-b7fc-402e-b9c1-04d830595812 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Infrastructure - Garcon [rough early thoughts]
well this video is going to be an
experiment uh in interviewing
uh some some some members of anthropic
about some of the infrastructure that we
have here um that's maybe interesting
and um both might be uh internally
useful for people to hear about um and
maybe we'll we'l... |
24f77f90-1023-4177-97e7-2fce4cca0088 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] An African Folktale
Today's post, An African Folktale was originally published on 16 February 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A story that seems to point to some major cultural differences.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the... |
e9842dd7-79e6-4ece-819e-0f3e14f502bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 11/10/22: Into the Background
There was a lot of news this week.
Elon Musk continued to Do Things at Twitter.
America had midterm elections. The polls were roughly accurate, with ‘candidate quality’ mattering more than expected especially on the Republican side.
FTX imploded. For now I am letting Matt Levine ... |
32971ba4-140f-45bf-9ef4-591637a33d4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Problems with AI debate
There's a lot to recommend with the debate approach proposed by Geoffrey Irving, Paul Christiano, and Dario Amodei. In it, competing AIs will trade rival claims, seeking to find flaws in the other's claims, continuing until one of them is grounded in something checkable.
The paper presents an ... |
60ff30c8-b6c9-433b-9e45-1afa0418efb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Coliseum: Arena of Data Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a follow-up to last week's D&D.Sci scenario: if you intend to play that, and haven't done so yet, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
There is a web interactive here you can use to test your answer, and generation code available here if you're ... |
33612344-c5b7-474e-81b0-00fe8873b286 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Counterfactual Planning in AGI Systems
Counterfactual planning is a design approach for creating a range of
safety mechanisms that can be applied in hypothetical future AI
systems which have Artificial General Intelligence.
My new paper
[Counterfactual Planning in AGI Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.00834)
intro... |
e645ebca-9361-4353-a948-8fc74e203186 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | How energy efficient are human-engineered flight designs relative to natural ones?
*Updated Dec 10, 2020*
***This page is out-of-date. Visit the [updated version of this page](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:how_energy_efficient_are_human-engineered_flight_d... |
17c1b83c-ccb6-4bdb-aad7-7c2e8ca1e5f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mental Subvocalization --"Saying" Words In Your Mind As You Read
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subvocalization
I'm curious about how often or to what degree visitors to this site subvocalize as they read. I was originally interested in reducing subvocalizations as a way to increase reading speed, as the idea is menti... |
0de30239-2c5b-481d-99b3-ad43cabc8468 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jaan Tallinn's 2023 Philanthropy Overview
to follow up my philantropic pledge from 2020, i've updated my philanthropy page with 2023 results.
in 2023 my donations funded $44M worth of endpoint grants ($43.2M excluding software development and admin costs) — exceeding my commitment of $23.8M (20k times $1190.03 — the ... |
f516c8ab-2d21-4e63-a642-0c44538696af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup - November
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup - November
WHEN: 20 November 2015 06:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 347 Flinders Lane, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
Our November Social Meetup is on again this Friday! (3rd Friday of the month as always.) Come & say hi for ... |
e5bedfd2-29b6-4c28-af46-c1f8f15222dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sama Says the Age of Giant AI Models is Already Over
There wasn't much content to this article, except for the below quotes.
Sam Altman says
> further progress will not come from making models bigger. “I think we're at the end of the era where it's going to be these, like, giant, giant models,” he told an audience ... |
f536401f-43bb-49b4-87cd-210499af32ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An introduction to Bayesianism [links]
Two recent papers in Philosophy Compass summarize the arguments for and against Bayesianism:
Easwaran, Bayesianism I: Introduction and Arguments in Favor
Easwaran, Bayesianism II: Applications and Criticisms
Philosophy Compass is a journal of review articles, my favorite readi... |
e64d5417-90dc-433b-8acd-fbbe87592a9a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the Confido app: bringing forecasting to everyone
Cross-posted from the EA forum.
We have originally created this tool for non-technical EA and policymaker audiences so many of you may not be our original target audience.
However, we think (1) you may find it useful when communicating/teaching rationality... |
875e1f6c-545a-4e83-ae8a-b0b04bc2e91d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Even more curated conversations with brilliant rationalists
Since August 2020, I've been recording conversations with brilliant and insightful rationalists, effective altruists, and people adjacent to (or otherwise connected) to those communities. If you're an avid reader of this site, I suspect you will recognize man... |
a679ba89-28e2-4aae-b218-b4772d1ac619 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Q&A with Aubrey de Grey on May 15
EDIT2: The video has now been posted, you can watch it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tsI_28O3Ws
EDIT3: I have typed up a transcript for this video, you can see it in this google doc or in the comments here.
Just a heads up to the lesswrong community. Dr. Aubrey de Grey will ... |
9d82fd00-e98d-4603-94b2-6b491ac2d3ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Saint Petersburg sunday meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Saint Petersburg sunday meetup
WHEN: 01 March 2014 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Санкт-Петербург, м. Технологический Институт, ул.1-я Красноармейская, дом 15
With high probability we will be playing Zendo. Also studying up information about CFA... |
7ac0cf84-efca-4f28-86c6-4a7933d15942 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Should I force myself to work on AGI alignment?
Hi, I'm an 18 year old going into college in a week. I am studying Computer engineering and mathematics. Since I have a technical interest and AGI has a much higher probability ending humanity this century(1/10, I think) than other causes (that I would rather work on, li... |
17de4c96-0832-432c-9f72-2dc60306b8b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Did slavery make the US an economic superpower and would the industrial revolution have happened without it?
|
99ec5c58-3b23-4d7c-90b4-77f5496fde9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is a Sequencing Read?
Probably the most common form of genetic sequencing these days is "paired-end" sequencing. It's very impressive: the sequencing machine can process the same nucleic acid fragment from both ends! This means that each observation looks like:
+--------------+---------+--------------+
| forwa... |
52431cf8-e594-4689-b2e9-3b54b6230be1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Sven Nyholm: Responsibility Gaps, Value Alignment, and Meaningful Human Control over AI
good
so the recording is on so today's
speaker is
sven newhom he's an assistant professor
of
philosophical ethics at the utah
university
his main research focuses on ethics of
technology ethical theory and history of
ethics
so he h... |
af2107be-24a6-46d8-88cc-656e2e16cf22 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Embedding safety in ML development
*This post was written as part of* [*Refine*](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/refine)*. Thanks to Adam Shimi, Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel, and Vanessa Kosoy for helpful discussion and feedback.*
Summary
=======
This post aims to:
* Advocate for embedding safety into development o... |
5b027ae0-49f6-4e57-b5b4-cdcade7ddd60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Job] Project Manager: Community Health (CEA)
With recent media attention, increased funding, and growing ambition among community members, this is one of the most exciting times for EA, but also one of the riskiest. We need an ops-minded generalist to help address these risks, through both end-to-end ownership of tar... |
aed69dd8-37ff-4997-b282-aaf530ebcbbb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conversational Presentation of Why Automation is Different This Time
I have been frustrated recently with my inability to efficiently participate in discussions of automation which crop up online and in person. The purpose of the post is to refine a conversational presentation of what I believe to be the salient conce... |
5a8b012b-5aaa-4b4e-b1e2-55b0d1bca297 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Thought on Pascal's Mugging
For background, see here.
In a comment on the original Pascal's mugging post, Nick Tarleton writes:
> [Y]ou could replace "kill 3^^^^3 people" with "create 3^^^^3 units of disutility according to your utility function". (I respectfully suggest that we all start using this form of the pr... |
cd0470ce-b38c-4e50-bd14-59775cdf8aec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [META] Karma, its positive and negative component
I'd like to see, beside the cumulative karma as it is now, also its analytic. Does my 0 points somewhere means no upvotes and no downvotes or +7 and -7, for example?
A timeline graph would also be appreciated.
|
e376e756-e1d3-4c79-aae5-8dcd26f328e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | No One Can Exempt You From Rationality's Laws
Traditional Rationality is phrased in terms of social rules, with violations interpretable as cheating—as defections from cooperative norms. If you want me to accept a belief from you, you are obligated to provide me with a certain amount of evidence. If you try to get out... |
ac6fead2-1bb3-48cd-8f66-6f29298d6112 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there any existing open source human evolution models?
It's famously said that "nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution". This suggest that evolutionary models provide a good way to gather knowledge about biology. If you expand the model to include memes that hunter gatheres pass around we ... |
9187b354-0c15-429f-9e0f-046c8f9219ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trust status sigmoidally
Status, at its finest, makes it easy to find out who the crowd believes is the most skilled, experienced, and capable. It helps us know who we should follow, collaborate with, bet on.
As a proxy metric, it's vulnerable to Goodhart's law and hacking. Sometimes we can detect and fix these issue... |
8d65ab11-30e1-4a07-917e-51252befae1e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | From partners to populations: A hierarchical Bayesian account of coordination and convention.
From Partners to Populations: A Hierarchical Bayesian Account
of Coordination and Convention
Robert D. Hawkins1, Michael Franke2, Michael C. Frank3, Adele E. Goldberg1, Kenny Smith4,
Thomas L. Grif /uniFB01ths1, 5, and Noah D... |
e656a89f-3cac-45e4-b7b5-21d44e7777c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A writer describes gradually losing language
A writer's memoir of a brain tumor slowly destroying his ability to use language
> When I came to read this passage "…floating and flailing weightlessly.…" I said the word "weightlessly" as "walterkly". It took quite a bit of effort to be fully sure that this was a mist... |
3e41c34a-efe0-41ff-9cbd-8165502ada72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Israel Less Wrong Meetup - Social Topics and LW outreach
Discussion article for the meetup : Israel Less Wrong Meetup - Social Topics and LW outreach
WHEN: 10 July 2014 07:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Google Tel-Aviv
We're going to have a meetup on Thursday, July 10th at Google Israel's offices, Electra Tower, 9... |
6900bf48-3c6e-4697-b232-3dd44184fc5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bangalore meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Bangalore meetup
WHEN: 21 June 2014 05:30:27PM (+0530)
WHERE: Leela palace, kodihalli, Bangalore
Hi, I am looking for more study partners (aka Bayesian co-conspirators wink) in my attempts at improving my rationality. I am set in Bangalore, India and not... |
2dbfec44-be25-4f67-acd2-caac51f6c119 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Toward Idealized Decision Theory
1 Introduction
---------------
As artificially intelligent machines grow more capable and autonomous, the behavior of their decision procedures becomes increasingly important. This is especially true in systems possessing great general intelligence: superintelligent systems could ha... |
22ee8cd5-9e65-4fec-94b9-40262632059d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Libertarianism, Neoliberalism and Medicare for All?
I suspect there are a fair number of people on this site who self-identify as libertarian or neo-liberal.
This question is more for neo-liberals--those who believe "the market should do what markets are good at, governments should do what markets are bad at"-- bu... |
19f08904-f63b-4078-b9fc-04114cbd9d89 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Against Discount Rates
I've never been a fan of the notion that we should (normatively) have a discount rate in our *pure* preferences - as opposed to a pseudo-discount rate arising from monetary inflation, or from opportunity costs of other investments, or from various probabilistic catastrophes that destroy resource... |
80af007f-743b-4eff-9f4b-9735b228919c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rock is Strong
Everybody wants a rock. It’s easy to see why. If all you want is an almost always right answer, there are places where they almost always work.
> The Security Guard
>
> He works in a very boring building. It basically never gets robbed. He sits in his security guard booth doing the crossword. Every so... |
0edec038-2097-4f7d-92ca-fdfe07759f77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human beats SOTA Go AI by learning an adversarial policy
See also article in Financial Times
Apparently, a human (Kellin Pelrine, a solid player but not even a Go professional) was able to beat some state-of-the-art Go AIs (KataGo and Leela Zero) by learning to play an adversarial policy found using RL. Notice that h... |
bd0bc3cd-83a6-4570-8773-c0b9521634a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Purpose and Pragmatism
Today's post, Purpose and Pragmatism was originally published on 26 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> It is easier to get trapped in a mistake of cognition if you have no practical purpose for your thoughts. Although pragmatic usefulness is not the same thing a... |
33074d98-9fbe-4a59-b90c-2a43931c5834 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Free Thought Film Festival: Tampa traditional rationalist gathering this weekend (13-15 May)
A bit late, since I'm at the opening ceremonies right now; but it seems like it could have some potential; and the Tampa Theatre is a great venue. |
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