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a47746de-14a2-47be-9f70-c45197ec206b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN#15: China and the US take action to regulate AI, results from a tournament forecasting AI risk, updates on xAI’s plan, and Meta releases its open-source and commercially available Llama 2
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical bac... |
eb12f470-8526-4e9e-9cca-cfcb22271b0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yoshua Bengio: Reasoning through arguments against taking AI safety seriously
He starts by emphasizing
> The issue is so hotly debated because the stakes are major: According to some estimates, quadrillions of dollars of net present value are up for grabs, not to mention political power great enough to significantly ... |
ea449ead-bb93-427d-9a7f-421274220332 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The predictive power of dissipative adaptation
There is an idea.
The idea, which has proven somewhat memetically sticky and is at the core of the so-called "effective accelerationist" (in short, e/acc) movement, is that there is a simple and powerful principle of non-equilibrium thermodynamics which favors the prolif... |
585d09a6-d670-4f76-b727-1ce500b2342d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shahar Avin On How To Regulate Advanced AI Systems
Shahar Avin is a senior researcher at the Center for the Study of Existential Risk in Cambridge. In his past life, he was a Google Engineer, though right now he spends most of his time thinking about how to prevent the risks that occur if companies like Google end up ... |
42912793-1f85-4fa4-865b-49ee9a30dcdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Montréal LessWrong/ACX Montreal
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
We hold meetups/discussions at L'Esplanade Tranquille during the summer months and the Ye Olde Pub Bar & Grill during the winter months, where we discuss a wide range of topics of interest. We also occ... |
a8ff75e6-5204-4e66-a397-eb350207f279 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes September 2012
Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not quote... |
8d590d4f-060c-4d86-b926-eb8d808620e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for research on evaluating alignment (funding + advice available)
Summary
Evaluating and measuring alignment in existing large ML models is useful, and doesn’t require high levels of ML or coding experience. I (Beth) would be excited to fund people to work on this, and William Saunders & I are open to providing a... |
9b9b4d01-cbbf-43d2-9ec8-a98ca2678b82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Crisis at Silicon Valley Bank
Many have already written about the events of the past week’s crisis.
If you want the basics of what happened, you have many options.
Your best bet, if available to you, is that this is Matt Levine’s wheelhouse. He did not disappoint, offering at least (1) (2) (3) (4) posts on th... |
0023daf0-487a-4207-a815-af94a1a6f872 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Gillian Hadfield, University of Toronto | Incomplete Contracts & AI Alignment
hi everyone welcome to faucets
intelligent cooperation group as a
preamble to this meeting we split
today's keynote which originally had
four presenters into individual
different keynotes because i think the
ideas are really amazing and ever... |
1b81637e-50a0-4daa-88af-8c3644628874 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Magical Categories
Today's post, Magical Categories was originally published on 24 August 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> We underestimate the complexity of our own unnatural categories. This doesn't work when you're trying to build a FAI.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comment... |
1df0b502-6c01-4bd2-ac6a-d2e45913b7e1 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Sometimes I wonder if the Pythagoreans had the right idea.
Yes, I've written about how "science" is inherently public. I've written that "science" is distinguished from merely rational knowledge by the in-principle ability to reproduce scientific experiments for yourself, to know without relying on authority. I've sai... |
09405dac-05a7-4702-92bd-35c5097149d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List of underrated risks?
As everyone here knows, it would be a stupid idea to switch from airplanes to cars out of safety/terrorism concerns: Cars are a much more risky means of transportation than airplanes. But what other major risks are there that many people systematically undervalue or are not even consciously a... |
9c55dfa1-f449-4766-aace-f2f12f236152 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | why I'm here now
* |
513124eb-cabd-4234-82e8-be7c3285da87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preliminary thoughts on moral weight
This post adapts some internal notes I wrote for the Open Philanthropy Project, but they are merely at a "brainstorming" stage, and do not express my "endorsed" views nor the views of the Open Philanthropy Project. This post is also written quickly and not polished or well-explaine... |
454f859a-5301-41c8-bcaf-50e7704e1ee1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Audio interview with Judea Pearl [link]
Where he discusses some of his career path and evolution of his thoughts about AI
http://www.stephenibaraki.com/audio/Judea_Pearl.mp3 |
b3f3a79a-718f-4727-a6cc-e69fefc7f585 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Tempe, AZ: How to Measure Anything I
Discussion article for the meetup : Tempe, AZ: How to Measure Anything I
WHEN: 25 October 2013 02:00:32PM (-0700)
WHERE: 300 E Orange Mall, Tempe, AZ
As usual, we are meeting at the entrance to Hayden Library. This week, we will play a round of Zendo and discuss Section... |
88487dd2-968f-4226-9ef2-762aa0edeb39 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | (C)IRL is not solely a learning process
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; floa... |
3976f9f0-800b-4656-b51f-2cd78a92b467 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Musings on the appropriate targets for standards
Consider two norms for how to critique those who violate your standards:
L: Focusing critique on those in power, who have the greatest opportunity to cause harm.
R: Focusing critique on those who it most accurately applies to, who most often cause harm.
I think both o... |
c94b2310-16ed-4fb6-9880-e4e54d2ed540 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Safety via Debate
New paper and blog post by Geoffrey Irving, Paul Christiano, and Dario Amodei (the OpenAI safety team). |
d6a9430c-8681-4a35-8474-7b4e1368fc33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tales From the American Medical System
Epistemic Status: Overheard in New York
I am walking and talking with my friend, a Type I Diabetic, when he receives a phone call from his doctor’s office.
As a Type I Diabetic, my friend needs insulin. The effects of not having insulin are very bad, and include death.
He has ... |
e1b99501-3c7c-46af-8b31-4053d5f48f85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?
I was mildly disappointed in the responses to my last question, so I did a bit of thinking and came up with some answers myself. I'm not super happy with them either, and would love feedback on them + variations, new suggestions, etc. The ideas are:
1. I approach someone ... |
d8ba63f7-59d8-4b72-8b8d-a7c7f7cfafa0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Image Hijacks: Adversarial Images can Control Generative Models at Runtime
You can [try our interactive demo](https://image-hijacks.github.io/)! (Or read our [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.00236).)
Here, we want to explain why we care about this work from an AI safety perspective.
Concerning Properties of Im... |
4348d7fd-c0cc-4693-82b1-ee8ebdad9e92 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "An excellent way to improve one's skill as a rationalist is to identify one's strengths and weaknesses, and then expend effort on the things that one can most effectively improve (which are often the areas where one is weakest). This seems especially useful if one is very specific about the parts of rationality, if on... |
0504bf30-af15-4383-b702-4666ac151e61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ChatGPT's Misalignment Isn't What You Think
ChatGPT can be 'tricked' into saying naughty things.
This is a red herring.
Alignment could be paraphased thus - ensuring AIs are neither used nor act in ways that harm us.
Tell me, oh wise rationalists, what causes greater harm - tricking a chatbot into saying something ... |
fd9721c1-5df9-495f-ae85-c3667abf90ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does Thinking Hard Hurt Your Brain?
This is a "typical mind fallacy check" post. Curious how much (within and without the rationalsphere) people's experience varies.
I generally experience "thinking hard" to be some combination of stressful, headache inducing, and energy draining (sometimes I feel like I actually am ... |
3f56980f-dea2-4480-ac4c-37bea8d99c88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-31
Links
* The Breakthrough Institute is hiring directors to run its new DC office (via @atrembath)
* Stable Diffusion: an AI image generator you can download and run (via @elidourado)
Queries
* Why didn’t clockwork technology get applied to other practical purposes for hundreds... |
ee03f6f6-3a0b-46e7-af5c-977321ae8acb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Most Likely Cause of an Apocalypse on December 21
Note: This post is almost completely tongue-in-cheek. Obviously the chances of December 21, 2012 heralding in an apocalypse, definable maybe as an event causing billions of deaths and/or global catastrophic infrastructure damage, are slim to none.
But they aren't actu... |
61be74d7-76b2-4ca2-88aa-adff26a7ad48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Checklist: What Succeeding at AI Safety Will Involve
Crossposted by habryka with Sam's permission. Expect lower probability for Sam to respond to comments here than if he had posted it (he said he'll be traveling a bunch in the coming weeks, so might not have time to respond to anything).
Preface
This piece re... |
7d0e9e58-b468-4ba2-9797-090049f14236 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Idea for a More Communal Petrov Day in 2022
(This post is a lightly edited memo I wrote for a Lightcone Infrastructure team meeting on the topic of Petrov Day, that Ruby then asked me to publish on the site.)
The main thing I want with Petrov Day is a sense of community, trust, and the respect of the principle of ... |
e06090fc-8696-462f-9b2d-a649e8b00184 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Searching for Impossibility Results or No-Go Theorems for provable safety.
I am looking for results showing that various approaches to provable safety are impossible or that such proofs are of a particular complexity class. I have Yampolskiy's paper "Impossibility Results in AI: A Survey," but I am looking for more t... |
309206e5-3027-49c0-abc9-79e1dddeae99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Build Your Number Sense
Nobody has ever called math sensual. But it is!
Magnitude: The Difference Between 1 And 2
Take a look at these two numbers:
1 vs. 2
Are these small numbers or large numbers? Is the difference between them important?
If they represent the number of dates you and I have been on, that's a mea... |
6c9a45b9-85e2-4882-9cc7-00e4303a1172 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Communication strategies for autism, with examples
This is a description of communication strategies which have been helpful to me in social situations where I was confused. It is relatively unedited; some of the content may be obvious and banal, or redundant.
[Edited to move out of footnote, thanks Aorou] I am aut... |
962c7db7-1447-4000-9ee0-b52ada141c35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Paper] Surviving global risks through the preservation of humanity's data on the Moon
My, with David Denkenberger, article about surviving global risks through the preservation of the data on the Moon has been accepted in Acta Astronautica. Such data preservation is similar to the digital immortality with the hope th... |
357f1b78-75d1-49b4-833e-8ef2f46c674f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Safety via selection for obedience
[In a previous post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/boLPsyNwd6teK5key/p/BXMCgpktdiawT3K5v), I argued that it’s plausible that “the most interesting and intelligent behaviour [of AGIs] won’t be directly incentivised by their reward functions” - instead, “many of the selection pressu... |
e61161c8-b0f5-4650-986f-e328b1dc3e79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | By default, avoid ambiguous distant situations
> "The Ood.[...] They're born for it. Basic slave race." Mr. Jefferson, The Impossible Planet.
> "And although he may be poor, he shall never be a slave,", from the Battle Cry of Freedom.
I've talked about morally distant situations: situations far removed from our own.... |
38f5a050-c1dd-4bbe-bb23-32238f96faf9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Universal counterargument against “badness of death” is wrong
All the usually offered counterarguments to the idea that death is evil boil down to one universal counterargument:
If there is no death, then there will be a bad phenomenon X (overpopulation, cessation of progress, eternal dictatorship, boredom), therefor... |
9d8e045b-ef6f-44a9-b558-81d7a23bc159 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 323: AI researcher warns about AI; BloombergGPT; and an open source Flamingo
Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.
[Subscribe now](https://importai.substack.com... |
b85ccd6d-0038-4fb2-a253-c5fd837ed051 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does GPT-2 Understand Anything?
Some people have expressed that “GPT-2 doesn’t understand anything about language or reality. It’s just huge statistics.” In at least two senses, this is true.
First, GPT-2 has no sensory organs. So when it talks about how things look or sound or feel and gets it right, it is just bec... |
c42bda19-812c-4d28-9406-99f5a425c4ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Advice request: Buying a car
So I'm looking at buying a car. At the moment I am using my parents' old car, however when I move out of home I will not be able to take it with me, and it also lacks some of the features I would like (cruise control in particular).
I'm looking at buying a small car, probably a hatchback.... |
a19f0f40-3382-4952-b2c4-b3b1d5ba4a56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nursing doubts
If you ask the internet if breastfeeding is good, you will soon learn that YOU MUST BREASTFEED because BREAST MILK = OPTIMAL FOOD FOR BABY. But if you look for evidence, you’ll discover two disturbing facts.
First, there’s no consensus about why breastfeeding is good. I’ve seen experts suggest at least... |
f8b573c5-5fa0-4196-b59f-4ca0e8ecb312 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post97
Introduction Anthropic recently released Stage-Wise Model Diffing , which presents a novel way of tracking how transformer features change during fine-tuning. We've replicated this work on a TinyStories-33M language model to study feature changes in a more accessible research context. Instead of SAEs we wor... |
8ce1843f-2061-4988-a5d6-0df9c2f50b16 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | More findings on Memorization and double descent
Produced as part of the [SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program](https://www.serimats.org/) - Winter 2022 Cohort.
I’d like to thank Wes Gurnee, Aryan Bhatt, Eric Purdy and Stefan Heimersheim for discussions and Evan Hubinger, Neel Nanda, Adam Jermyn and Chris Olah f... |
4c40536a-110c-41c0-9d61-b4e49b060da4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #53: An Open Letter Attempts to Block OpenAI Restructuring
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
In this edition: Experts and ex-employees urge the Attorneys General of California and Delaware to block OpenA... |
115032cd-45a9-4209-a40c-7a28cb8cf2bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List of civilisational inadequacy
In the spirit of experimentation I want to have a thread where we list examples of gross civilizational inadequacy.
There's subcomment for meta comments on the thread, otherwise I encourage you to have one top-level comment per example of civilizational inadequacy. |
e7fef95e-5cc1-4c23-acbc-1674e6901dbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Given Extinction Worries, Why Don’t AI Researchers Quit? Well, Several Reasons
I've written a blog post for a lay audience, explaining some of the reasons that AI researchers who are concerned about extinction risk have for continuing to work on AI research, despite their worries
The apparent contradiction... |
a4b3c6d7-2d87-4d04-bc47-5c8746977076 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are you stably aligned?
Epistimic status: posing questions I think are probably useful, without a strong guess at the answers.
If we made an AGI just like you, would it be aligned?
Would it stay aligned over a long time span?
The purpose of the first question is to explore the possibility raised by shard theory and... |
4c53ee1f-112f-4497-abdd-a3aaa80fa8d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI safety from first principles: Control
It’s important to note that my previous arguments by themselves do not imply that AGIs will end up in control of the world instead of us. As an analogy, scientific knowledge allows us to be much more capable than stone-age humans. Yet if dropped back in that time with just our... |
ef384c9c-fa91-45d7-913b-4b5f8ce13e57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | General alignment plus human values, or alignment via human values?
Thanks to Rebecca Gorman for discussions that lead to these insights.
How can you get a superintelligent AI aligned with human values? There are two pathways that I often hear discussed. The first sees a general alignment problem - how to get a power... |
3d0bcbe2-8b47-467c-8acb-5afacaa92de9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Economics of Human-AI Ecosystem: Value Bias and Lost Utility in Multi-Dimensional Gaps
Introduction
------------
Problem-solving and planning are decision-making processes that consist of ordered decision choices and decision actions (?; ?). Instantaneous decision-choices are the atomic units that compose a decisio... |
0e93c56c-415c-44e2-8b95-72acc620c708 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Levels of goals and alignment
This post was written as part of Refine. Thanks to Adam Shimi, Lucas Teixeira, Linda Linsefors, and Jonathan Low for helpful feedback and comments.
Epistemic status: highly uncertain. This post reflects my understanding of the terminologies and may not reflect the general consensus of A... |
a4a3ceb1-05f2-4644-b34c-a30697b9a061 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Redwood's Technique-Focused Epistemic Strategy
Imagine you’re part of a team of ML engineers and research scientists, and you want to help with alignment. Everyone is ready to jump in the fray; there’s only one problem — how are you supposed to do applied research when you don’t really know how AGI will be built, what... |
b14b79f6-7634-4d72-afc7-b6bf2edcd13b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monk Treehouse: some problems defining simulation
When does one program simulate another? When does one program approximately simulate another?
In some contexts, these questions have concrete answers. In other contexts they feel about the same as the problem of functionalist triviality. When simulation comes up in co... |
702406e5-4e15-4fc8-a64d-d942bfa51d60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong has been acquired by EA
(Edit: Alas, EA has pulled out of the deal. Let April 1st 2025 mark some of the greatest hours in EAs history)
Hey Everyone,
It is with a sense of... considerable cognitive dissonance that I am letting you all know about a significant development for the future trajectory of LessWro... |
0ca20377-4248-4463-a646-b4afa8080390 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 1. The CAST Strategy
(Part 1 of the CAST sequence)
AI Risk Introduction
(TLDR for this section, since it’s 101 stuff that many readers will have already grokked: Misuse vs Mistake; Principal-Agent problem; Omohundro Drives; we need deep safety measures in addition to mundane methods. Jump to “Sleepy-Bot” if all that... |
b97a4851-5915-440d-8a87-f408291a923f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Zero-Shot Assistance in Sequential Decision Problems
1 Introduction
---------------
In this paper we consider the problem of assisting agents in tackling sequential decision problems which they have never encountered before. Human decision makers are routinely faced with this problem: take for example engineering d... |
71e54e20-4582-493c-ad3d-7a242896a8ab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Preferences from (real and hypothetical) psychology papers
Research projects
-----------------
I'm planning to start two research projects on [model splintering/reward generalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1) and [learning the p... |
d549d5d4-de64-4b5f-ab02-bc64913fe56d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Self-Supervised Learning and AGI Safety
(*Update later on: I'm no longer personally excited about this direction, for reasons mentioned in [section 7.2 here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gfw7JMdKirxeSPiAk/solving-the-whole-agi-control-problem-version-0-0001).*)
**Abstract:** We should seriously consider the possi... |
b27da3d9-7579-4524-b45e-b96c4e4cd21f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Language Models are a Potentially Safe Path to Human-Level AGI
The core argument: language models are more transparent and less prone to develop agency and superintelligence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I argue that compared to alternat... |
f8c467a1-caa9-468b-a0ac-d5ac3b46b410 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why election models didn't predict Trump's victory — A primer on how polls and election models work
|
6a9a6097-1abb-436c-a28f-c2080f61c423 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | How could a superintelligent AI use the internet to take over the physical world?
Imagine the following scenario[^kix.uowsx95nrfqq]:
- At some future time, a single “[superintelligent](/?state=5864&question=What%20are%20the%20differences%20between%20AGI%2C%20transformative%20AI%2C%20and%20superintelligence%3F)” AI is... |
9df69edf-a7a9-4499-be99-3437303776c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Conceited Folly of Certainty
Overconfidence is strangling public discourse and going widely unnoticed.
> “Blessed is the man, who having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact.” - George Eliot (AKA Mary Evans)
I.
Over two thousand years ago, there was a Greek painter named Apelles. He c... |
a219dcea-f0c4-453f-9f95-b035dda57bfb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Technical model refinement formalism
This post has been mainly superceeded by this one.
Introduction
This post aims to formalise the models and model changes/model splintering described in this post. As explained there, the idea is to have a meta-model sufficiently general to be able to directly capture the process ... |
02f6a0eb-c6aa-46cf-8434-13cb666066e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Security Mindset: Hacking Pinball High Scores
|
5584a0d8-4fc1-409f-9901-fc0e2d02b32e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Testing for parallel reasoning in LLMs
Summary
We study language models' capability to perform parallel reasoning in one forward pass. To do so, we test GPT-3.5's ability to solve (in one token position) one or two instances of algorithmic problems. We consider three different problems: repeatedly iterating a given fu... |
df210049-1598-42d0-b161-29960375c916 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Optimization and the Singularity
Today's post, Optimization and the Singularity was originally published on 23 June 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> An introduction to optimization processes and why Yudkowsky thinks that a singularity would be far more powerful than calculations based on hum... |
6b3afd4d-5757-4224-89a3-2d02da9de4e7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy on AI ethics and superintelligence
The *Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy -* pretty much the standard reference for surveys of philosophical topics - has a brand-new ("First published Thu Apr 30, 2020*"*) article, "Ethics of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics". Section 2.10 is c... |
a0d4d86b-bf14-48ba-8d35-01f9e445b13d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Insights from "All of Statistics": Probability
All of Statistics is yet another book on Miri's research guide. This book has also been reviewed by Alex Turner.
This post is something like an abridged summary. It's definitely not a self-contained introduction to the field; I've included all important subjects as secti... |
7d353bb8-fe24-4f76-969a-71eb7a3674e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction Markets Explained
Prediction markets are contract-based markets that track the outcome of specific events.
Traders buy shares in a market (priced 0 < x < 100), and depending on the event's outcome, those shares are either worth 0 or 100.
1. A market is created to determine if the price of Ethereum is >= ... |
ac172cd8-c158-4995-b390-85ef0facc4ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New annotated bibliography for MIRI’s technical agenda
[](https://intelligence.org/files/AnnotatedBibliography.pdf)Today we release a new [annotated bibliography](https://intelligence.org/files/AnnotatedBibliography... |
75f455e3-9b0e-44e4-8ff5-f08347b7dcda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | #6: Optional additional steps
This is post 10 of 10 in my cryonics signup sequence.
----------------------------------------
Introduction
The preceding posts cover everything you need to be fully signed up for cryonics. However, there are a lot of additional steps you may want to take to give yourself the best chan... |
87c2ad31-c35e-403c-821b-605d763f9e00 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | New year, new research agenda post
*Thanks to Steve Byrnes, Adam Shimi, John Wentworth, and Peter Barnett for feedback.*
In a nutshell, my plan A is to understand what we want from superintelligent AI really, really well. So well that we can write down a way of modeling humans that illuminates human preferences ... |
74df00ef-c7f7-44e9-aae7-2667ef981360 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | A Preliminary Exploration into Factored Cognition with Language Models
We perform a series of experiments using GPT-3 with decomposition to
perform complex toy tasks that it is otherwise unable to solve. The goal
of these experiments is to provide some preliminary evidence for the
viability of factored cognition in re... |
64f36046-3888-465a-9724-4d7fa1582765 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Share your personal stories of prediction markets
Last nights prediction markets on the election were heavily traded relative to past PMs. Predictit alone had hundreds of millions of USD in trade volume. Many LWers competed on the markets, for reasons discussed here. If you competed, share your experience here. |
fb54608a-3240-46fb-b7ea-2dd551925526 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult
Cade Metz at The Register recently alleged that a secret mailing list of Wikipedia’s top administrators has become obsessed with banning all critics and possible critics of Wikipedia.1 Including banning a productive user when one administrator—solely because of the productivity—became co... |
a3ead5f3-985b-4914-b3aa-8f7d4acec8ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] The Illusion of Asymmetric Insight
I'm sure a number of LWers read You are Not So Smart, but his most recent post there relates to a large number of the sequences. |
cf7e1298-24d5-4b41-9ab1-69b71b5f01b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Formalize the Hashiness Model of AGI Uncontainability
tdlr; This is a project to put a model of AGI uncontainability into math. Goal is to make the reasoning straightforward to verify.
Apply now
----------------------------------------
It is a standard practice in computer science to first show that a problem do... |
920a9ea5-8212-4f91-b89c-493e38e9389f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing Apollo Research
TL;DR
1. We are a new AI evals research organization called Apollo Research based in London.
2. We think that strategic AI deception – where a model outwardly seems aligned but is in fact misaligned – is a crucial step in many major catastrophic AI risk scenarios and that detecting decep... |
aac51c07-08f7-4fea-aa53-c6dd050942eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reward is not the optimization target
This insight was made possible by many conversations with Quintin Pope, where he challenged my implicit assumptions about alignment. I’m not sure who came up with this particular idea.
In this essay, I call an agent a “reward optimizer” if it not only gets lots of reward, but if ... |
111b0054-059f-4630-ab63-0e95a69b6a1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 77-78, Part 2
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 77-78, Part 2
WHEN: 27 July 2013 12:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 726 Rigsbee Avenue, Durham NC, 27701
Meet at Fullsteam for discussion of HPMoR chapters 77-78, Electric Boogaloo.
Feel free to br... |
b5a585af-a1ae-460b-805d-4d92d544825f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Bath UK
This summary was posted to LW Main on October 17th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Bangalore Meetup: 15 November 2014 04:15PM
* Bath: Introduction and PredictionBook: 19 October 2014 02:00PM
Irregularly sc... |
a3f50c9c-49bf-4b5a-8510-bf10a61e2418 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Plan - 2024 Update
This post is a follow-up to The Plan - 2023 Version. There’s also The Plan - 2022 Update and The Plan, but the 2023 version contains everything you need to know about the current Plan. Also see this comment and this comment on how my plans interact with the labs and other players, if you’re curi... |
74716e37-52c4-49b6-bf13-face3ff48522 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two forms of procrastination
I noticed something about myself when comparing two forms of procrastination:
a) reading online discussions,
b) watching movies online.
Reading online discussions (LessWrong, SSC, Reddit, Facebook) and sometimes writing a comment there, is a huge sink of time for me. On the other hand, w... |
a2974763-42ac-4e8e-a23d-417d13d7eedd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | I designed an AI safety course (for a philosophy department)
Background
----------
In the fall of 2023, I'm teaching a course called "*Philosophy and The Challenge of the Future*"[[1]](#fn9xo11z9bi8v) which is focused on AI risk and safety. I designed the syllabus keeping in mind that my students:
* will have no pr... |
842aa4e6-a4f6-4a8b-8ab0-ea368ea5b332 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong Wiki as Anki deck
I've ported the Less Wrong Wiki into an Anki deck. I hope this will be useful for new members as an alternative way to get acquainted with many interesting LessWrong concepts (Newcomb's problem? Superexponential conceptspace?).
A disclaimer: this an automatized scrape and therefore it migh... |
66442742-3546-48b4-986f-5e950df32db4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-market failures: inefficient networks
Economics has a rich language for talking about market failures. Situations involving things like externalities, asymmetric information, public goods, or principal-agent problems can all result in room for improvement. In practice these situations haven't turned out to be full... |
5d877059-3d8b-415b-ba12-3dc114793e4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | April 2012 Media Thread
Post what you're reading, listening to, watching, and your opinion of it. Post recommendations to blogs. Post whatever media you feel like discussing!
Rules:
* Please avoid downvoting recommendations just because you don't personally like the recommended material; remember that liking is a t... |
30d3b06e-ce80-4a05-8142-f849469e30ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GÖDEL GOING DOWN
Ever since David Hilbert introduced his programme, a lot of work has gone into examining the question of what conclusions can and cannot be algorithmically extracted from a set of axioms. But very little has been said about whether it is possible to construct a complete set of axioms from an already w... |
d0a06b90-b173-4b01-a99f-5d6d15fa53ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Austin, TX
Discussion article for the meetup : Austin, TX
WHEN: 24 March 2012 01:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2222B Guadalupe St Austin, Texas 78712
Note that the Austin, TX meetup is not meeting March 17th; many of us will be out of town.
We'll be back at Caffe Medici on the 24th, and we sit on the second floo... |
8cb80925-ae82-4855-9f27-d2f777e4b068 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consciousness of abstraction
Preface
I expect that many people on LessWrong have heard of Korzybski, of General Semantics (K's name for his system), and of some of the phrases he coined, such as "the map is not the territory". abramdemski has recently posted on an aspect of his system that I want to communicate more f... |
4bfefb51-63d9-4607-80bc-197db77d16a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London Practical Meetup - Calibration Training!
Discussion article for the meetup : London Practical Meetup - Calibration Training!
WHEN: 08 December 2013 02:00:00AM (+0000)
WHERE: Shakespeare's Head, Africa House, 64 Shakespeare's Head, Africa House, 64-68 Kingsway, London WC2B 6BG, UK-68 Kingsway, London... |
03040eed-1ae5-4fdc-9788-c96df6843bc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropic releases Claude 3.7 Sonnet with extended thinking mode
See also: the research post detailing Claude's extended reasoning abilities and the Claude 3.7 System Card.
About 1.5 hours ago, Anthropic released Claude 3.7 Sonnet, a hybrid reasoning model that interpolates between a normal LM and long chains of tho... |
913a69da-4236-47d9-bf51-d0f7db942b53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Productivity Systems Don't Stick
Note: Experimental, trying to repost a Twitter thread as a Lesswrong post to see if people like it (so if you like it, or don't, tell me).
Let's talk a little bit about oscillating motivation, shadow values, non-coercion, and the problem of revolving productivity systems.
We've a... |
3921a8d2-99d4-466e-9e65-082a690459b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proxy misspecification and the capabilities vs. value learning race
G Gordon Worley III recently complained about a lack of precision in discussions about whether Goodhart's Law will present a fatal problem for alignment in practice. After attending a talk in which Dylan Hadfield-Menell[1] presented the "Goodhart's La... |
e0e7555b-fa29-4a19-b0a9-d0d09491fbf0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Or: Why AI Takeover Might Happen Before GDP Accelerates, and Other Thoughts On What Matters for Timelines and Takeoff Speeds
[Epistemic status: Strong opinion, lightly held]
I think world GDP (and economic growth more generally) is overrated as a metric for AI ... |
5b7fd2c8-ba47-417f-ab0f-68b5ee6fc3b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reification bias
> “All right," said Susan. "I'm not stupid. You're saying humans need... fantasies to make life bearable."
>
> REALLY? AS IF IT WAS SOME KIND OF PINK PILL? NO. HUMANS NEED FANTASY TO BE HUMAN. TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE FALLING ANGEL MEETS THE RISING APE.
>
> "Tooth fairies? Hogfathers? Little—"
>
>... |
8b3b8127-07d1-4875-856f-dc787be0935a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #107: The Misplaced Hype Machine
The most hyped event of the week, by far, was the Manus Marketing Madness. Manus wasn’t entirely hype, but there was very little there there in that Claude wrapper.
Whereas here in America, OpenAI dropped an entire suite of tools for making AI agents, and previewed a new internal m... |
e35c9605-f7f3-47cc-9358-3bcd590c1e90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | .
. |
5ff9bccb-28c9-4be6-bb8e-398b4f4a1bad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Robin Hanson's Cryonics Hour
I'm writing to recommend something awesome to anyone who's recently signed up for cryonics (and to the future self of anyone who's about to do so). Robin Hanson has a longstanding offer that anyone who's newly signed up for cryonics can have an hour's discussion with him on any topic, and ... |
ef5396a9-38de-4449-82f9-ddd26b0087cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why does category theory exist?
* Why did someone bother coming up with it?
* Why did they think it might be able to give us useful insights?
* And what interesting insights into reality does it give us? |
b114a9aa-5a64-4be3-b935-d641613be806 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Hanabi Challenge: A New Frontier for AI Research
1 Introduction
---------------
Throughout human societies, people engage in a wide range of activities with a
diversity of other people. These multi-agent interactions are integral to
everything from mundane daily tasks, like commuting to work, to operating the
o... |
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