id stringlengths 36 36 | source stringclasses 15
values | formatted_source stringclasses 13
values | text stringlengths 2 7.55M |
|---|---|---|---|
b35c7869-ee4e-4e98-aa9d-f2e8f3248232 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Marburg Virus Pandemic Prediction Checklist
Current score: 4/14
Last updated: 18 July 2022
Summary:
* Two Marburg virus infections have been detected in Ghana.
* Prediction: Since 1967, 73% of outbreaks infected less than 5 people, and 93% of outbreaks infected less than 250 people. The worst outbreak infected 25... |
1b740e97-ba3f-4bb2-ab83-e186363556fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Validator models: A simple approach to detecting goodharting
Crossposted from my personal blog.
A naive approach to aligning an AGI, and an abstract version of what is currently used in SOTA approaches such as RLHF, is to learn a reward model which hopefully encapsulates many features of 'human values' that we wish t... |
e09419a7-2ce6-4802-9df7-938857516f60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where to report bugs on the new site?
I assume it's the same as before, but I don't recall where that is and it doesn't seem to be listed on the about page anymore. One of my comments will not mark as read on my userpage even though it will everywhere else... |
5a201c2f-bd03-4a42-94be-d6db5a6fe19e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Robustness of Contrast-Consistent Search to Adversarial Prompting
Produced as part of the AI Safety Hub Labs programme run by Charlie Griffin and Julia Karbing. This project was mentored by Nandi Schoots.
Image generated by DALL-E 3.
Introduction
We look at how adversarial prompting affects the outputs of large lan... |
be06fbeb-2931-48af-bf08-d5bfe056ffb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quotes from Moral Mazes
Reading and actually paying attention to Moral Mazes is hard. Writing carefully about it is even harder. I effectively spent several months forcing my way through the book, because it seemed important to do that. I then spent a month trying to write about the book, but that’s going super slow a... |
971e3962-ff94-4337-b47e-c695109299aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Where's the foom?
> "The first catastrophe mechanism seriously considered seems to have been the possibility, raised in the 1940s at Los Alamos before the first atomic bomb tests, that fission or fusion bombs might ignite the atmosphere or oceans in an unstoppable chain reaction."[[1]](#fn27figlpro9v)
>
>
This is n... |
b2614d60-3659-430a-aaa1-c60ee957b21e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Munich Meetup in September
Discussion article for the meetup : Munich Meetup in September
WHEN: 17 September 2016 04:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: JetBrains Event Space, Elsenheimerstr. 47a, 5th floor, Munich
A discussion of books/podcasts/talks/movies that you thought may be interesting for your fellow rationali... |
c296c313-1add-4c76-a59c-f2e880569bea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Heuristic Proof of Practical Aligned Superintelligence
"Computers can add numbers much more accurately than humans. They can draw better pictures than humans. They can play better chess. See the pattern? Well, AIs will soon be able to generate desired outcomes for society better than humans can.
I feel that the AI ... |
6f3e3216-9e6b-4c2d-9634-b9030f7cb427 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Low impact
A low-impact agent is a hypothetical [task-based AGI](https://arbital.com/p/6w) that's intended to avoid *disastrous* side effects via trying to *avoid large side effects in general*.
Consider the Sorcerer's Apprentice fable: a legion of broomsticks, self-replicating and repeatedly overfilling a cauldron (... |
ff1ff015-bc34-4708-a594-bb960d83a33c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard
Leo Szilard—the physicist who first conceived of the nuclear chain reaction and who urged the US to undertake the Manhattan Project—also wrote fiction. His book of short stories, The Voice of the Dolphins, contains a story “The Mark Gable Foundation,” date... |
fb9ff005-cb1d-4e4b-89b9-f9ecc7a17681 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Group coset
Given a subgroup $H$ of [https://arbital.com/p/-3gd](https://arbital.com/p/-3gd) $G$, the *left cosets* of $H$ in $G$ are sets of the form $\{ gh : h \in H \}$, for some $g \in G$.
This is written $gH$ as a shorthand.
Similarly, the *right cosets* are the sets of the form $Hg = \{ hg: h \in H \}$.
# Exam... |
24dd6fcc-349d-4471-9283-0ed218d627a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berkeley meetup: Deliberate performance
Discussion article for the meetup : Berkeley meetup: Deliberate performance
WHEN: 14 November 2012 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
This week's Berkeley meetup will be a structured discussion about getting better at skills. One way to get better at skills (like... |
af19e783-09ba-4377-952f-e3198bcef625 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How people stopped dying from diarrhea so much (& other life-saving decisions)
Rational Animations made this video collaborating with 80,000 Hours. The script has been written by Benjamin Hilton as an adaptation of part of the 80,000 Hours career guide, by Benjamin Todd. I have included the full script below.
-------... |
1791fe86-9af2-4d77-9167-9c1c08cc06ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probabilities, weights, sums: pretty much the same for reward functions
This post is a more minor post, that I'm putting up to reference in other posts.
Probabilities, weights, and expectations
You're an agent, with potential uncertainty over your reward function. You know you have to maximise
0.5R1+0.5R2
where R1... |
6cacf370-6483-4d02-ac85-ef07bcb18b84 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Turing machine: External resources
* [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_machine)
* [Wolfram MathWorld](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/TuringMachine.html)
* [Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy](http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/turing-machine/) |
7d77109a-16d0-47a9-8f92-36d22f6829dc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Gatekeeper Victory: AI Box Reflection
A few weeks ago, I made a post – [AI Box Experiment Are People Still Interested](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HrZer4yhegweXJ8RH/ai-box-experiment-are-people-still-interested) – about the AI Box Experiment. I had read about it in [Rationality: From AI to Zombies](https://www.les... |
e5bdb4d2-8931-400c-98e0-55dcf2868c62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social: May
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social: May
WHEN: 20 May 2016 06:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Alchemist's Refuge, 328 Little Lonsdale St, Melbourne 3000
This month's Melbourne Social Meetup is on as scheduled! (Facebook event: https://www.facebook.com/events/224476817935623 ) ... |
642327ab-33ad-443f-a110-38478157fc02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Stopped Clock Problem
When a low-probability, high-impact event occurs, and the world “got it wrong”, it is tempting to look for the people who did successfully predict it in advance in order to discover their secret, or at least see what else they’ve predicted. Unfortunately, as Wei Dai discovered recently, this ... |
a984c9ef-d96a-4b8f-b7d7-c0a91351a420 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the AI Doomsday Narrative the Product of a Big Tech Conspiracy?
This is the full text of a post from "The Obsolete Newsletter," a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Obsolete: Pow... |
5ea271ed-f469-43d0-97ca-408db5825aa1 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I want to know what are good rationality exercises.I was just on a call with Liron and PhilH, hanging out after the weekly LessWrong weekend event, and we discussed exercises that could happen on LessWrong.Here is the list we generated:Thinking PhysicsFermi EstimatesProject EulerCalibration TrainingBasic probabilistic... |
181fc1c9-5f4d-48a5-a5f3-871f183cb28d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Outcome Terminology?
I'm writing a post about S-risks, and I need access to some clean, established terminology/background material for discussing AI-based long-term outcomes for humanity.
My current (very limited) vocabulary can be summarized with the following categories:
1. Outcomes which are roughly maximally ... |
de91b93a-2711-492c-820c-30d4cb09bcc3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Cave Allegory Revisited: Understanding GPT's Worldview
*A short post describing a metaphor I find useful, in particular for explaining some intuitions about systems like GPT to people who don't have deeper technical knowledge about large generative models.*
Plato's [allegory of the cave](https://en.wikipedia.org/... |
6ad9b1f3-eee2-44c6-9871-7db603a983a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tax Price Gouging?
In the aftermath of a disaster, there is usually a large shift in what people need, what is available, or both. For example, people normally don't use very much ice, but after a hurricane or other disaster that knocks out power, suddenly (a) lots of people want ice and (b) ice production is more dif... |
bea6d2c5-aba5-4ad6-98a5-c88312871046 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Soldiers, Scouts, and Albatrosses.
TL;DR: Soldier and Scout as modes of thought. Soldiers "assume the conclusion", which is sometimes unreasonably effective. Search as a synthesis of Soldier and Scout. Lévy flight as optimal trade-off.
Hey IAN! What's the best way of thinking?
#[[IAN says]]: I think of the soldier m... |
2b41e9ac-519f-4959-bbf0-ab252f71ee28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Model-based RL, Desires, Brains, Wireheading
Summary
I’m very interested in model-based RL as a framework for how people might build AGI, in large part because I think that human intelligence is built from scratch by within-lifetime learning in a model-based RL framework. (Meanwhile I give Evolution credit for develop... |
13dc8752-597e-4267-9d06-0f0ad59e3133 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Book review] The anxiety toolkit
This is a book review of the book The anxiety toolkit by Alice Boyes. I read it in the context of a personal literature review project on the topic of productivity and well being. If you are more interested by advice on productivity and wellbeing than by this specific book I advise yo... |
5de7ef49-5f31-4355-9ef2-47903e98e039 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [U.S. Specific] Criminal Justice Reform in the Time of Covid-19
I've been following LessWrong for some time now, but this is my first post. Looking to start a conversation around prison communications, the private prisons industry, and US criminal justice system reform.
I've started working for Ameelio (ameelio.org),... |
0528b67e-75d0-481a-8504-0b47d314233e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ukraine Post #10: Next Phase
This is another Covid-style Ukraine post in the ‘here are all the things that caught my attention since the last one of these posts’ tradition.
I have noticed that the rate at which I notice noteworthy new things while looking at my sources has declined steadily. The situation is becoming... |
8094d74f-3f53-4b52-8969-42180805ce27 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trivial Inconvenience Day (December 9th at 12 Noon PST)
Hi everybody, it's been 9 months since I wrote my report on Trivial Inconvenience Day. I wasn't quite sure when to run a sequel event. I wanted to give people an opportunity for deferred tasks to pile up again. With three seasons under the bridge I think it's saf... |
02865f3e-5784-4f86-a91c-1cbca36ac93e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Quantilizers: AI That Doesn't Try Too Hard
hi so way back in the before time
i made a video about maximizers and
satisfices
the plan was that was going to be the
first half of a two-parter now i did
script out that second video
and shoot it and even start to edit it
and then
certain events transpired and i never
f... |
b938773d-f03e-4587-ae28-f1fb30472c30 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | AI and Shared Prosperity
1. Introduction
----------------
One of the major avenues through which the advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is affecting society and its people is by redistributing economic opportunities and earning prospects. Such redistribution can be equitable and inclusive, or biased in fav... |
1fc75726-77be-488a-85ab-9fde3e47f8b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Utility functions without a maximum
An elementary question that has probably been discussed for 300 years, but I don't know what the right keyword to use to google it might be.
How, theoretically, do you deal with (in decision theory/AI alignment) a "noncompact" utility function, e.g. suppose your set of actions is p... |
9b3603c8-70d7-4b40-bf9d-c528d2d166f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | A Critical Look at Risk Assessments for Global Catastrophes
INTRODUCTION Speculative suggestions are occasionally made about ways in which new physics experiments could hypothetically bring about a catastrophe leading to the end of life on Earth. Some of these hypothetical catastrophes, including the "killer strangele... |
48469082-c7b9-4ab5-b5e0-776689014d33 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Boolean
In formal [https://arbital.com/p/-258](https://arbital.com/p/-258), a boolean variable is a [https://arbital.com/p/-variable](https://arbital.com/p/-variable) that can take on one of only two possible values: "[https://arbital.com/p/-true](https://arbital.com/p/-true)" or "[https://arbital.com/p/-false](https:... |
4e0b5dbc-3929-413f-b464-5d3e4efcd662 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The order of learning things (general to specific vs. specific to general)
Does order matter? To many of us, it does. The speed of learning something can be drastically affected by the order by which you learn them, and since we all have limited time, the time we spend learning is quite relevant to our concerns.
T... |
649c295a-b71b-4376-a9b7-f85e243c1b26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Proposed Test to Determine the Extent to Which Large Language Models Understand the Real World
Large Language Models such as GPT-3 and PaLM have demonstrated an ability to generate plausible-sounding, grammatically-correct text in response to a wide range of prompts. And some Language-Model-based applications such a... |
b1384297-04a7-491f-93df-9945031f849f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gene drives: why the wait?
(Crossposted from my Substack)
If you’ve been following biology news over the last few years, you might have heard of an interesting concept called a “gene drive”. The overall idea is to engineer a genetic allele that transmits itself to all offspring of a sexually reproducing organism, ins... |
8d78366c-9ef3-470e-8fc4-7c06b46a832a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Bitcoins, "Investment of Money," and Law
A federal magistrate judge in Texas issue a decision on Tuesday that "Bitcoin is a currency or form of money, and investors wishing to invest in BTCST provided an investment of money." More discussion on the legal reasoning is here.
Some context from reading the decisi... |
4838db88-5306-4517-a7b1-0d6f9de48280 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Google "We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI"
This (purported) leak is incredibly scary if you're worried about AI risk due to AI capabilities developing too fast.
Firstly, it suggests that open-source models are improving rapidly because people are able to iterate on top of each other's improvements and try out ... |
9d11cb71-7571-4111-a67c-1830b662cc55 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | How rapidly are GPUs improving in price performance?
Note: Equations will not render properly with javascript disabled.
Introduction
============
Many of the impressive results in deep learning in recent years have been achieved through massive investment in hardware needed for training, with projects like Alph... |
23bc9c9c-b399-4ffd-b610-b8149a47cb0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dissolving the Question
"If a tree falls in the forest, but no one hears it, does it make a sound?"
I didn't answer that question. I didn't pick a position, "Yes!" or "No!", and defend it. Instead I went off and deconstructed the human algorithm for processing words, even going so far as to sketch an illustration o... |
997692ed-b41e-4ba7-bb05-b31001e4e562 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] AmA by computational neuroscientists behind 'the world's largest functional brain model'
Not sure if this has been covered on LW, but it seems highly relevant to WBE development. Link here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/147gqm/we_are_the_computational_neuroscientists_behind/
A few questioners mention ... |
3ef26b62-3825-471e-bc5b-c247b3c85dcb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Dissent on Honesty
Context
Disney's Tangled (2010) is a great movie. Spoilers if you haven't seen it.
The heroine, having been kidnapped at birth and raised in a tower, has never stepped foot outside. It follows, naturally, that she does not own a pair of shoes, and she is barefoot for the entire adventure. The mov... |
e77a0aa8-7a55-4557-86eb-1defa3b20663 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Formulas of arithmetic that behave like decision agents
I wrote this post in the course of working through Vladimir Slepnev's A model of UDT with a halting oracle. This post contains some of the ideas of Slepnev's post, with all the proofs written out. The main formal difference is that while Slepnev's post is about p... |
3e51de2b-5645-4a22-985e-62bb30ce1ba9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why don't our vaccines get updated to the delta spike protein?
Delta and Delta Plus evade the antibody response:
> Delta and Delta Plus were less well inhibited (neutralized) by antibodies from infected and vaccinated individuals as compared to the original virus and this likely contributed to the rapid spread of Del... |
78505318-3025-4a0f-b9ec-bd514958c6bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 3a. Towards Formal Corrigibility
(Part 3a of the CAST sequence)
As mentioned in Corrigibility Intuition, I believe that it’s more important to find a simple, coherent, natural/universal concept that can be gestured at, rather than coming up with a precisely formal measure of corrigibility and using that to train an A... |
5e1a2f54-fc50-4641-9be7-d4e0bcca6743 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fake Fake Utility Functions
Followup to: Most of my posts over the last month...
Every now and then, you run across someone who has discovered the One Great Moral Principle, of which all other values are a mere derivative consequence.
I run across more of these people than you do. Only in my case, it's people who k... |
ccf71148-8210-4c68-80bb-205d3618bc53 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Understanding Interlocking Dynamics of Cooperative Rationalization
1 Introduction
---------------
Selective rationalization bastings2019interpretable; carton2018extractive; chang2019game; chen2018learning; chen2018shapley; glockner2020you; lei2016rationalizing; li2016understanding; yu2019rethinking explains the pre... |
b7b47952-d2ab-4b32-bd5b-dd425fcedd44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Proposals at ‘Two Sessions’: AGI as ‘Two Bombs, One Satellite’?
...
On March 4, the opening ceremony of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) was held. Zhu Songchun, a member of the CPPCC and director of the Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligen... |
736c0ee2-ff79-4845-8999-ea4a4687d37b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryonics Career Survey (more jobs than you think)
(x-post LessDead)
Survey presentation
Link to survey: Cryonics Career Survey
Background. During the annual Teens and Twenties Cryonics Gathering (a fully funded yearly gathering for young cryonics members), there is usually a survey that is distributed to all partic... |
15c8e922-a7c5-4633-92bb-e0828e3be55c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Elevating Air Purifiers
I'm pretty interested in indoor air quality, primarily for reducing disease transmission, but also for reducing the effect of small particles from cooking. Air purifiers work well, but if you do leave them on the ground they're in the way and vulnerable to children and pets. Elevating them can ... |
36fa46bc-fbac-42be-aec2-824c144b8246 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why AI may not save the World
Marc Andreessen, founder of legendary VC firm a16z, recently wrote an article titled 'Why AI Will Save the World'. This post is my reply to him and why I think his understanding of AI is superficial at best. I report quotes from his post in italic for the benefit of the reader, while all ... |
75e6655f-45e0-4ad8-972e-ef9e6dbbe8aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Database of existential risk estimates
*This post was written for [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/), though the opinions expressed are my own.*
This post:
* Provides [a spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XUwqBPQ-sFkO5h4tdYrVvlK8ooFWyR8XbBVntt820JI/copy) you can use for ... |
90cca7fa-2d28-4d83-9578-5401cbd2da39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 2/23/23: Your Best Possible Situation
No news is (often) good news.
At old Magic: The Gathering tournaments, judge Tony Parodi would often tell us, ‘if your opponent did not show up, that is your best possible situation.’
Every week, when I set out to write the Covid update, I held out the hope that at some po... |
6cfe20f9-cbaa-4c14-873f-8f50e04fbb4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scott Aaronson: Common knowledge and Aumann's agreement theorem
The excellent Scott Aaronson has posted on his blog a version of a talk he recently gave at SPARC, about Aumann's agreement theorem and related topics. I think a substantial fraction of LW readers would enjoy it. As well as stating Aumann's theorem and ex... |
a66587ba-63ad-4cf3-abf2-fb1a0ec08c62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] The real end of science
From Gene Expression by Razib Khan who some of you may also know from the old gnxp site or perhaps from his BHTV debate with Eliezer.
> Fifteen years ago John Horgan wrote The End Of Science: Facing The Limits Of Knowledge In The Twilight Of The Scientific Age. I remain skeptical as to ... |
615eb05d-2f88-4723-a6db-26950a4d64fe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Simulators seminar sequence] #1 Background & shared assumptions
*Meta: Over the past few months, we've held a seminar series on the* [*Simulators theory*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators) *by janus. As the theory is actively under development, the purpose of the series is to discove... |
923f04bd-6f37-4966-b593-50166a351984 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Only a hack can solve the shutdown problem
(My first post on LessWrong. It seems the most recent Welcome Thread is from 2020, so I'm making a top-level post. This an edited version of my submission to the [AI Alignment Awards](https://www.alignmentawards.com).)
Abstract: First, we offer a formalisation of the shutdow... |
5978c36b-171a-44c3-ac98-676da68c5f09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The prior probability of justification for war?
Could you use Bayes Theorem to figure out whether or not a given war is just?
If so, I was wondering how one would go about estimating the prior probability that a war is just.
Thanks for any help you can offer. |
2f0ba93f-c637-4e1c-8dcb-05dcea7d4f4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CFAR Handbook: Introduction
The Center for Applied Rationality is a Bay Area non-profit that, among other things, ran lots of workshops to offer people tools and techniques for solving problems and improving their thinking. Those workshops were accompanied by a reference handbook, which has been available as a PDF sin... |
23496967-352e-4c88-b4e7-a33311be29d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Critiques of the Agent Foundations agenda?
What are some substantial critiques of the agent foundations research agenda?
Where by agent foundations I am referrring the area of research referred to by Critch in [this post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/hvGoYXi2kgnS3vxqb/some-ai-research-areas-and-their-relevanc... |
bb9fbc86-6128-454b-aedf-72e1e8ae1b03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | survey about biases in the investment context
Hello guys, I am currently writing my master's thesis on biases in the investment context. One sub-sample that I am studying is people who are educated about biases in a general context, but not in the investment context. I guess LW is the right place to find some of those... |
9f007bd7-633f-434d-beb4-58e346593d24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Maximizing Yield on US Dollar Pegged Coins
A Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Exercise
Link to original post.
Over the last couple of months, I have been playing around Decentralized Finance (DeFi), a relatively novel application within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. In this post I want to illustrate how to use several D... |
e46ed72d-a463-43a6-8f17-fee890c51d4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] The Hacker Shelf, free books.
Yes, this a repost from Hacker News, but I want to point out some books that are of LW-related interest.
The Hacker Shelf is a repository of freely available textbooks. Most of them are about computer programming or the business of computer programming, but there are a few that ar... |
046ce5b8-3ee7-45ea-ad12-34af368f0ecb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2015-16 New Year review
#### 2015 progress
Research:
* Finished [paper](http://arxiv.org/abs/1506.02371) on the Selective Bayesian Forest Classifier algorithm
* Made an [R package](http://github.com/vkrakovna/sbfc) for SBFC (beta)
* Worked at Google on unsupervised learning for the Knowledge Graph with [Moshe Look... |
56be9d22-e743-461e-8b82-b777a03f3fb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Transcript] Tyler Cowen on Stories
I was shocked, absolutely shocked, to find that Tyler Cowen's excellent TEDxMidAtlantic talk on stories had not yet been transcribed. It generated a lot of discussion in the thread about it where it was first introduced, so I went ahead and transcribed it. I added hyperlinks to back... |
5784fa9f-0269-48a3-8945-75fda682ab56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Resources to find/register the rationalists that specialize in a given topic?
As far as I can tell:
1. It's not possible for me (or most/all other people, for that matter) to individually evaluate claims every topic I hear about, as it takes too long time and too much effort to learn the foundations needed to evalua... |
edc684a8-0055-4605-878a-3f3ab79bbeac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Summary of 80k's AI problem profile
*This is a summary of the article “*[*Preventing an AI-related catastrophe*](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/artificial-intelligence/)*” (audio version*[*here*](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/preventing-an-ai-related-catastrophe-article/id1245002988?i=1000582699751)*)... |
a3d1fe51-a926-4223-a3cd-ecd426b32ed2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Nairobi mini-Meetup #1: Double Crux
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Nairobi mini-Meetup #1: Double Crux
WHEN: 30 April 2016 03:34:07PM (+0300)
WHERE: Up the hill from Lukenya Academy, Machakos
We'll be learning and investigating the dynamics of the game 'Double Crux', a potentia... |
618b2009-dd69-4dbb-9cc8-e8bfc8b4e062 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contrarians judged mad after being proven right (John Hempton)
I recommend John Hempton's blog post on how badly people judge seeming madmen in the case the conventional view has only conventional-wisdom support. I also like how he explains his research and conclusions in general.
the gist:
> In early June Carson Bl... |
906aa9df-9326-4c30-9532-fc64cd1f50b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes August 2013
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post th... |
f77aca1c-afc1-4e30-8ff1-08183224a71d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | June and Mulberries
Around here the Juneberries and Mulberries are ripe.
The berries are delicious, but a lot of people don't know that they're safe to eat.
I like the mulberries best when they still have a hint of red, before they get too sweet.
We've been walking over to the neighborhood tree with a ste... |
40e3ae77-1daa-4f99-bc8e-adf0bf627ce1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Robbin's Farm Sledding Route
There's a nice sledding hill a short drive from our house. It has an area with a gentler slope, where we would go when the kids were younger, but at this point the main attraction is a slope that drops ~60ft over ~400ft:
The big downside is that it's steep all the way down to a fence... |
84e249af-c795-4807-8f9f-85b4d242e9fc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Opportunities for Cooperation on AGI at the Governance Level
[Music]
okay thank you very much for joining us
the structure of this panel is going to
be fairly straightforward we're going to
have statements from each of the
speakers within five minutes or less and
if I've moderated you before you know
that I keep times... |
0e5ed328-6c31-4d78-8c3e-7e7df73224a2 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | ""It is essential for a man to strive with all his heart, and to understand that it is difficult even to reach the average if he does not have the intention of surpassing others in whatever he does." —Budo Shoshinshu
"In important matters, a 'strong' effort usually results in only mediocre results. Whenever we are atte... |
79408909-72db-4d71-ab1d-f58465c68b8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scott Aaronson's cautious optimism for the MWI
http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=1103
Eliezer's gung-ho attitude about the realism of the Many Worlds Interpretation always rubbed me the wrong way, especially in the podcast between both him and Scott (around 8:43 in http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/2220). I've seen ... |
72309cf7-b628-47fc-b755-42d940d5c80c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prolonging life is about the optionality, not about the immortality
> There is no such thing as death. No, there’s the fear of death, and that is an awful fear. Sometimes it even makes people do things they shouldn’t. But how different things would be if only we could stop fearing death.
It has come to my attention t... |
154f763c-c40b-45fd-9068-a75772948a16 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Testing Robustness Against Unforeseen Adversaries
1 Introduction
---------------
Neural networks perform well on many datasets He et al. ([2016](#bib.bib24)) yet can be
consistently fooled by minor adversarial distortions Goodfellow et al. ([2014](#bib.bib22)).
The research community has responded by quantifying an... |
5462a0cb-53f3-4ae5-b8da-4ab75a5270a4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning Robust Representations by Projecting Superficial Statistics Out
1 Introduction
---------------
Imagine training an image classifier to recognize facial expressions.
In the training data, while all images labeled *“smile”*
may actually depict smiling people,
the “smile” label might *also* be correlated
with... |
5d4ae727-9c36-4853-b12e-1e17580d5c77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some Thoughts On Using Auctions For Land Valuation
Land value taxes are an attractive approach to public finance. However, some people argue that the difficulty of assessing land values makes land value taxation impractical. While I think assessment by governmental officials typically is good enough for practical purp... |
f9525ba2-d8e1-4db1-9e07-44235a3a2270 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Danger(s) of theorem-proving AI?
Posting this on behalf of user PrimalShadow on the AstralCodexTen Discord:
> What are ways in which an AI that is trained to prove specific math theorems is dangerous? In particular, imagine you have an AI which is trained to take a prompt asking to prove a formal-language-predicate,... |
b2d552b1-7370-4a7e-a1a8-bd5da8485802 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Dihedral groups are non-abelian
Let $n \geq 3$. Then the [https://arbital.com/p/-4cy](https://arbital.com/p/-4cy) on $n$ vertices, $D_{2n}$, is not [abelian](https://arbital.com/p/3h2).
# Proof
The most natural dihedral group [presentation](https://arbital.com/p/group_presentation) is $\langle a, b \mid a^n, b^2, ba... |
1c6f2616-17de-4dee-a3f4-91550b8ee98d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Auctioning Off the Top Slot in Your Reading List
Or, A Nicer Way to Commodify Attention
Observation 1: I read/listen to a lot of public intellectuals--podcasters, authors, bloggers, and so on--and I frequently find myself thinking:
> Ugh, I hate it when this guy spouts ignorant nonsense about [some domain]. And he'... |
0969788e-8956-4d9c-b07a-47cb7ed6a821 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A scheme for sampling durable goods first-hand before making a purchase
A problem when trying to purchase some classes of products (like pillows, computer mice, and sleep masks) is that it is difficult to sample lots of them first-hand before making a purchase. This forces one to rely on product reviews or to settle f... |
5329f7ef-afb0-4d53-a261-f73f1663ff01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Neglected Cause: Altruism Cultivation Practices
How are we to address the problem that not enough people are working to solve the many great challenges of the modern world?
It is obvious from the outset that this is a question of human motivations: in my daily life, do I work only to benefit myself (and perhaps my ... |
6f4216c4-ee54-4e63-8722-283d605b862c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A History Of Universalist Greed
[Special thanks to Ratheka Stormbjorne and Shiloh Miyazaki for doing some of the research for this essay. All opinions expressed are my own however.]
In my essay on Fuzzies and Saddies I wrote about four components that were necessary to implement "Eliezer's version of extropy":
> 1. ... |
7acfe468-cb4d-4897-9e47-b700b6f2e79e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Contrarian Status Catch-22
It used to puzzle me that Scott Aaronson still hasn't come to terms with the obvious absurdity of attempts to make quantum mechanics yield a single world.
I should have realized what was going on when I read Scott's blog post "The bullet-swallowers" in which Scott compares many-worlds t... |
685b32df-534d-41a9-950a-7ed6b5709f43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Some?) Possible Multi-Agent Goodhart Interactions
Epistemic Status: I need feedback on these ideas, and I've been delaying because I'm not sure I'm on the right track. This is the product of a lot of thinking, but I'm not sure the list is complete or there isn't something important I'm missing. (Note: This is intende... |
7aab7829-1ca1-40f8-b6a4-5e3206fb0c39 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Greg Burch said: "I think people should have a right to be stupid and, if they have that right, the market's going to respond by supplying as much stupidity as can be sold."
Greg Burch was speaking about sport-utility vehicles, which he feels are very poorly designed. Note that Burch was not advocating banning SUVs. B... |
f348b33b-9f1e-428f-b41b-89b7fece9684 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The heterogeneity of human value types: Implications for AI alignment
Note: This post was sparked by some replies to my EA Forum [post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YwnfPtxHktfowyrMD/the-religion-problem-in-ai-alignment) Sept 15 about ‘The religion problem in AI alignment’. There, I argued that AI safety ... |
01fba7c1-684d-487c-a07b-b13f602a3151 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] We Don't Really Want Your Participation
Today's post, We Don't Really Want Your Participation was originally published on 10 September 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Advocates for the Singularity sometimes call for outreach to artists or poets; we should move away from thinking of people a... |
1ae85d4e-3bb2-48b2-8bd5-d1df9e1571f5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Would it be good or bad for the US military to get involved in AI risk?
Meant as a neutral question. I'm not sure whether this would be good or bad on net:
Suppose key elements of the US military took x-risk from misaligned strong AI very seriously. Specifically, I mean:
* Key scientists at the Defense Threat Reduct... |
5768db69-0b56-443e-8f3e-e3eac461fea6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Basic Category Theory for Computer Scientists (MIRI course list)
I'm reviewing the books on the MIRI course list. After finishing Cognitive Science I picked up Basic Category Theory for Computer Scientists, by Benjamin C. Pierce.
Basic Category Theory for Computer Scientists
This book is tiny, clockin... |
9faee817-c519-4017-ad66-3945686cd0e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 11/26: Thanksgiving
Happy Thanksgiving!
Even in a year like this one, we have much to be thankful for. Most of us, even if we get sick, will fully recover. Treatments continue to improve. Given expectations, this week’s numbers were surprisingly good, to the extent that I have theories later to explain why. Th... |
1693a92d-1a39-445e-86d2-2586d60edd07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid: CDC Issues New Guidance on Opening Schools
Author’s Note: This was originally the title topic of this week’s Covid post (as ‘School Daze’), but the post was getting long and this is its own issue, so I’m moving the guidelines discussion to its own post.
As usual, all discussions of school are confusing for me... |
eca21d02-e139-4206-8be9-b43f46e51ee9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attention-Feature Tables in Gemma 2 Residual Streams
This is research I did in a short span of time, it is likely not optimal, but it's unclear whether the constraints are my skills, my tools, or my methods. Code and full results can be found here, but you'll need to download the model yourself to replicate it.
TL;D... |
07e2c116-35f4-4a44-8cfd-634787b1c58f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MetaPrompt: a tool for telling yourself what to do.
MetaPrompt is a nonstandard todo list. The very bare-bones basic idea is that you add ideas to a deck of cards, and you shuffle this deck to draw things to do. This is useful for "tasks" with no priority, where you just want to be reminded of the idea at some point i... |
8c7c8b0c-37d6-42f7-9bf4-2bb8e35cf461 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Lebowski Theorem — Charitable Reads of Anti-AGI-X-Risk Arguments, Part 2
This is the second post in a series where I try to understand arguments against AGI x-risk by summarizing and evaluating them as charitably as I can. (Here's Part 1.) I don't necessarily agree with these arguments; my goal is simply to gain a... |
3e6bd0dc-283e-4926-9c2f-aa490f166d4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking at RSS User-Agents
An RSS reader sends periodic requests to get the latest feed. This includes a User-Agent field, identifying which fetcher is running:
Feedbin feed-id:1242010 - 38 subscribers
This fetcher is nicely passing along statistics, saying how many readers it represents.
I took one day of logs,... |
907a320a-7e66-4aab-97b0-c986154bfec3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Women Submissions: On Misogyny
Standard Intro
The following section will be at the top of all posts in the LW Women series.
Several months ago, I put out a call for anonymous submissions by the women on LW, with the idea that I would compile them into some kind of post. There is a LOT of material, so I am breakin... |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.