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d065c64e-9c14-4b72-9005-4fccf36d1ecb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I changed my mind about orca intelligence
Follow up to: My previous posts on orca intelligence.
TLDR: I now think it’s <1% likely that average orcas are >=+6std intelligent.
(I now think the relevant question is rather whether orcas might be >=+4std intelligent, since that might be enough for superhuman wisdom and t... |
a64dd93a-f0be-402b-b75d-138f70b4df2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Politics and the English Language
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Politics and the English Language
WHEN: 16 February 2014 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 40.109545,-88.2273
Read this: https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/orwell46.htm
And then show up and discuss it.
D... |
1872624d-6e7b-4b92-a959-f93b9d8c4cb8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Interpretable Latent Spaces for Learning from Demonstration
1 Introduction
---------------
We want our autonomous robots to be competent across broad domains. Ideally, they must be able to cope with the open world, i.e., one where it may not be possible to provide a complete specification of the task up front. Thus... |
35336c34-6f46-4ada-8679-f55eb409aa6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver
WHEN: 27 September 2012 06:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 885 west georgia vancouver
Last meetup was fun, it's almost time for the next!
Meet us in the lobby of 885 west georgia at 18:00 on thursday. Better to be early than late. We go upstairs at about 18:3... |
23a925bf-b73d-47d7-86d2-4b35be05553c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Price Of Space Is Friendship
It's an exciting time in the history of human exploration. We're only just beginning to probe outside our biosphere. Low-orbit, long-term space inhabitation like that seen on the ISS has been the norm for many years now. As of the time of writing, 7 people were in space. Our long term ... |
4ef1c229-5f1f-45b1-a04a-ea8bce517008 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] 52 Concepts To Add To Your Cognitive Toolkit
Excellent list by Brenton Mayer and Peter McIntyre: http://mcntyr.com/52-concepts-cognitive-toolkit/
I think the list can also serve as a useful index and/or introduction to a lot of LessWrong concepts.
A note of caution: I find that brief lists like this can actua... |
91130618-f62a-40f9-a14f-c12367f7eca1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Love and Rationality: Less Wrongers on OKCupid
Last month, Will_Newsome started a thread about OKCupid, one of the major players among online dating sites--especially for the young-and-nerdy set, given their mathematical approach to matching. He opened it up for individual profile evaluation, which occurred, but so di... |
50566cd5-db1b-4ce9-929a-a08232165ba5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Path Independent Equilibrium Models Can Better Exploit Test-Time Computation.
1 Introduction
---------------
One of the main challenges limiting the practical applicability of modern deep learning systems is the ability to generalize outside the training distribution (Koh et al., [2021](#bib.bib24)). One particular... |
b374e73f-5beb-427b-84aa-8af94901235b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Austin, Brussels, Montreal, Pittsburgh, St. Louis
This summary was posted to LW main on Nov 23rd. The following week's summary post is here.
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Brussels meetup: 24 November 2012 01:00PM
* (St. Louis MO) Psycology of memorization, Thi... |
4a9b8861-9e00-4e0d-a326-a7e76e34319c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Classifying representations of sparse autoencoders (SAEs)
Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Autumn 2023 Cohort, under the mentorship of Dan Hendrycks
There was recently some work on sparse autoencoding of hidden LLM representation.
I checked if these sparse representations are bett... |
034f54a4-a41f-496a-a90d-172faf46d9b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Privilege
The forum has been very much focused on AI safety for some time now, thought I'd post something different for a change. Privilege.
Here I define Privilege as an advantage over others that is invisible to the beholder. [EDIT: thanks to JenniferRM for pointing out that "beholder" is a wrong word.] This may... |
210fe4f1-6d54-4780-9195-abd478f0bce1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 24-26
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 24-26
WHEN: 29 December 2012 11:00:00AM (-0500)
WHERE: 2706 Durham-Chapel Hill Boulevard, Durham, NC 27707
HPMoR discussion meetup. We'll be talking about chapters 24-26; come join us!
Please feel... |
6270d88a-d06a-4f44-8cc4-a6bc3c65c161 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Personal Identity and Uploading", by Mark Walker
“Personal Identity and Uploading”, Mark Walker is the next JET paper. Abstract:
> Objections to uploading may be parsed into substrate issues, dealing with the computer platform of upload and personal identity. This paper argues that the personal identity issues of up... |
29930f2e-8048-49ea-ab94-6d2089097058 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Brain-inspired AGI and the "lifetime anchor"
Last year Ajeya Cotra published a [draft report on AI timelines](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines). (See also: [summary and commentary by Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biological-... |
3aa42ee2-9137-48a9-84df-edc1f9f88802 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Fundamental Question About Omega
Omega has appeared to us inside of puzzles, games, and questions. The basic concept behind Omega is that it is (a) a perfect predictor and (b) not malevolent. The practical implications behind these points are that (a) it doesn't make mistakes and (b) you can trust its motives in th... |
c161ff16-738c-4939-bc82-7cab77157baa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to make TensorFlow run faster
I quickly put this together for a fellow AI alignment researcher/engineer, so I thought I'd share it here.
The main recommendations are from Intel: https://software.intel.com/en-us/articles/maximize-tensorflow-performance-on-cpu-considerations-and-recommendations-for-inference
I imp... |
d83e3f62-9b21-432d-837e-f4abfa404a4d | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1928
(Last revised: July 2024. See changelog at the bottom.) 14.1 Post summary / Table of contents Part of the “Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series . Post #12 suggested two paths forward for solving “the alignment problem” for brain-like AGI , which I called “Social-instinct AGI” and “Controlled AGI”. ... |
b0556b7d-c090-41fb-b52e-56b820bee3d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Rationality Condition for CDT Is That It Equal EDT (Part 1)
[Epistemic Status: this series of two posts gives some arguments which, in my eyes, make it difficult to maintain a position other than CDT=EDT, but not impossible. As I explain at the end of the second post, it is still quite tenable to suppose that CDT an... |
c7bf2bfe-f7ca-41cd-b4c7-d3150eb7daef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adversarial attacks and optimal control
Meta: After a fun little motivating section, this post goes deep into the mathematical weeds. This thing aims to explore the mathematical properties of adversarial attacks from first principles. Perhaps other people are not as confused about this point as I was, but hopefully, t... |
16b32947-ee28-4f19-abeb-a04fd282b9e0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Learning Normativity: A Research Agenda
*(Related to* [*Inaccessible Information*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/ZyWyAJbedvEgRT2uF/inaccessible-information)*,* [*Learning the Prior*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SL9mKhgdmDKXmxwE4/learning-the-prior)*, and* [*Better Priors as a Safety Problem*](https://w... |
0b51f1dd-3751-4fb4-b440-f0ea2cc0e6a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there more than 12 paths to Superintelligence?
Has anyone seen a more detailed AI endgame scenario tree than this? Interesting part after 13:05.
|
862ab8e5-bd97-44ee-85c7-d298aa1f49d7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Is there a news-tracker about GPT-4? Why has everything become so silent about it?
Probably the latter question is an obvious bias based on my own media consumption, but even when trying my best internet-search efforts, I have a hard time finding anything interesting about GPT-4 (a name people seem to use for a new ge... |
67ce780e-a6b6-487a-b652-0c9f3ff11795 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Reading Group: Fake Beliefs (p43-77)
This is part of a semi-monthly reading group on Eliezer Yudkowsky's ebook, Rationality: From AI to Zombies. For more information about the group, see the announcement post.
----------------------------------------
Welcome to the Rationality reading group. This week we... |
d13c6854-71fb-4393-9bdd-ab750835e45f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
Abstract
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been indu... |
f4b82666-aa3a-4b62-9e68-5c6399960b16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The World is Full of Wasted Motion
Introduction
The 80/20 rule, or the Pareto Principle is a “rule” in economics, saying that 80% of the value comes from 20% of the effort. It is weird to call this a rule, when it’s such a fuzzy, ill-defined statement. And it’s easy to come up with counter-examples. But this is an emp... |
1002ab40-8265-4e01-9b1a-90b886a153d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doubts about Updatelessness
Epistemic status: crystallizing uncertain lore
(this is mostly a writeup of a discussion with Abram, plus some additional thoughts of my own)
Note: Counterlogical Mugging will be used as a term for the counterfactual mugging problem that uses a digit of some mathematical constant.
Lately... |
9bc9b65e-6f0a-4f12-a5fc-f196bec06312 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaculus Introduces Multiple Choice Questions
Today Metaculus launched multiple choice questions. Multiple choice questions are designed for topics where exactly one option out of many will occur, like the winner of a presidential election.
For this question type, the sum of the probabilities across all options must... |
300f94d4-f93d-443c-b592-32ab0fd9d856 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is "functional decision theory"?
While debates between causal and evidential decision theory (CDT and EDT) have been around for the past fifty years, Functional Decision Theory has emerged within the past decade as an attempt to resolve the longstanding issues faced by *both* CDT and EDT.
Despite their differenc... |
93465ac6-0ae8-4b2e-84b9-5944dc834be8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Truth Terminal: A reconstruction of events
Introduction
In July 2024, Marc Andreessen, a pioneer of the modern internet, donated $50,000 in Bitcoin (BTC) to an AI on Twitter to promote its religion, the Goatse Gospel. Three months later, the AI began endorsing the $GOAT crypto-coin, which now boasts over $1 billion i... |
d3d1f8ad-e5aa-4357-8c0f-c1a9fceceb55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mathematical Inconsistency in Solomonoff Induction?
What counts as a hypothesis for Solomonoff induction? The general impression I’ve gotten in various places is “a hypothesis can be anything (that you could write down)”. But I don’t think that’s quite it. E.g. evidence can be written down but is treated separately. I... |
a57a3c6f-b2eb-40b7-abe8-4afd9aceb08e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Linkpost] Shorter version of report on existential risk from power-seeking AI
I've edited my [report](https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353) on existential risk from power-seeking AI into a shorter version (less than half the length), available [here](https://jc.gatspress.com/pdf/existential_risk_and_powerseeking_ai.pdf).... |
50aba8c7-5774-4570-a9b6-b96cca90abea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Price Of Glee In China
[Epistemic status: Overly simplistic treatment of a horrifyingly complex topic; I can only hope I haven’t missed enough to completely embarrass myself]
I.
Noah Smith reviews recent economic research suggesting that globalization was a net harm to working class people in rich countries like... |
966e88a1-98a3-4d37-904f-1563014eaf15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 1/16/2018 Update - Parent Comments, and Nearterm Horizon
One issue I've ran into on the frontpage is seeing something in "recent comments", which is missing the context of it's parent comment. I got annoyed with having to click through the post just to figure out the context.
This was fairly easy to fix, so I went an... |
807c462b-2c04-4792-9e5c-ccecfd4f432b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Source LLM Pokémon Scaffold
This is a cleaned-up, open-source version of the LLM Pokémon Scaffold described in Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and o3 on Pokémon Red. (forked from David Hershey of Anthropic's scaffold here, all development on top of that was done by my friend, not me)
Since th... |
518643ab-4bea-4097-8564-a266c0566ee8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When "yang" goes wrong
(Cross-posted from my website. Podcast version here, or search "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.
This essay is part of a series I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that the individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for a brief su... |
8ba8f70b-67a5-4c38-83dc-e5942cea3ed7 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "B.F. Skinner called thoughts "mental behavior". He believed they could be rewarded and punished just like physical behavior, and that they increased or declined in frequency accordingly.Sadly, psychology has not yet advanced to the point where we can give people electric shocks for thinking things, so the sort of rewa... |
cc45602c-fc61-4ff2-97a6-90cc099be00c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ten Modes of Culture War Discourse
Overview
This article is an extended reply to Scott Alexander's Conflict vs. Mistake.
Whenever the topic has come up in the past, I have always said I lean more towards conflict theory over mistake theory; however, on revisiting the original article, I realize that either I've been ... |
9434a552-c5e6-492b-8389-657d6409d6bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Ground-Truth Label Imbalance Impairs Contrast-Consistent Search Performance
Contrast-Consistent Search (CCS) is a method for finding truthful directions within the activation spaces of large language models (LLMs) in an unsupervised way, introduced in [Burns et al., 2022](https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.03827). However, al... |
f0d4abcf-bf4a-4679-996a-71f2fe0a82d9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Supervised learning and self-modeling: What's "superhuman?"
**I**
We don't just want aligned AI to do what a human would do. We've got plenty of humans lying around all over the place, if that's all we need. The fancy promise of future AI is that it will deliver *superhuman* performance.
Sometimes the notion of "sup... |
f602064e-672a-4ff5-8b33-6d032c7b0d24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Excluding the Supernatural
Occasionally, you hear someone claiming that creationism should not be taught in schools, especially not as a competing hypothesis to evolution, because creationism is a priori and automatically excluded from scientific consideration, in that it invokes the "supernatural".
So... is the idea... |
eff611b5-c748-4ef8-a553-601634561e2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Natural Latents: The Concepts
Suppose our old friends Alice and Bob decide to undertake an art project. Alice will draw a bunch of random purple and green lines on a piece of paper. That will be Alice’s picture (A). She’ll then make a copy, erase all the purple lines, and send the result as a message (M) to Bob. Bob t... |
62b48620-0b17-4db4-8b36-283871fab721 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Responsibility for outcomes when systems are intelligent (Nir Douer and Joachim Meyer)
um and near will give the presentation
and i'll be
sitting in the back and if maybe i'll
try to answer some of the questions if
uh i think well uh help
any of it although he will do this
excellently by himself so
again thanks for ha... |
85aaf7ec-c22c-4440-bcf2-e71cf94dbcaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne, Friday 1st July 7pm
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, Friday 1st July 7pm
WHEN: 01 July 2011 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 55 Walsh St, West Melbourne 3003
Directions: Enter the somewhat unfriendly building, climb the stairs to the top (2 floors), and turn left. If the front door is loc... |
d5236059-6f3b-49f4-a727-933abaa9bc44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI safety milestones?
Optimal governance interventions depend on progress in technical AI safety. For example, two rough technical safety milestones are have metrics to determine how scary a model's capabilities are and have a tool to determine whether a model is trying to deceive you. Our governance plans should adap... |
8b9dce3f-84c4-4f1c-b215-73eee25aa310 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does 10x-ing effective compute get you?
This is more speculative and confusing than my typical posts and I also think the content of this post could be substantially improved with more effort. But it's been sitting around in my drafts for a long time and I sometimes want to reference the arguments in it, so I tho... |
ffe12117-1391-437d-b202-77ddbd4e515b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Would AGIs parent young AGIs?
Question. In the world in which multiple AGIs obtain (i.e., not a singleton), is it likely these AGIs will be parents/mentors/guardians of younger AGIs?
----------------------------------------
Context. I was wondering whether parenthood (or, more minimally, guardianship) is an intrinsi... |
f6db4fd3-efed-468c-8cf7-aaa10aca39c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Long-Term Future Fund:
May 2023 to March 2024 Payout recommendations
Introduction
This payout report covers the Long-Term Future Fund's grantmaking from May 1 2023 to March 31 2024 (11 months). It follows our previous April 2023 payout report.
* Total funding recommended: $6,290,550
* Total funding paid out: $5,36... |
68e25dc0-3155-421c-b72b-134cd24c1f5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bratislava
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava
WHEN: 20 October 2014 06:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Bistro The Peach, Mariánska 3, Bratislava
Stretávame sa opäť v bistre; majiteľ je ochotný kvôli nám na jeden večer urobiť bistro nefajčiarske.
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava |
84c4183c-a5f5-432f-8797-066d160bcc90 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Book review: "A Thousand Brains" by Jeff Hawkins
Jeff Hawkins gets full credit for getting me first interested in the idea that neuroscience might lead to artificial general intelligence—an idea which gradually turned into an all-consuming hobby, and more recently a new job. I'm not alone in finding him inspiring. And... |
156ee353-4560-478b-abc2-6f946ac08df2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [US] NTIA: AI Accountability Policy Request for Comment
> The Department of Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA)[[1]](#fnqz6fbua7br) has launched an inquiry into what policies will help businesses, government, and the public be able to trust that Artificial Intelligence (AI) sys... |
6c106726-f5ce-4697-8c5a-a93a9177c071 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Strong cognitive uncontainability
### Definition
Suppose somebody from the 10th century were asked how somebody from the 20th century might cool their house. While they would be able to understand the problem and offer some solutions, maybe even clever solutions ("Locate your house someplace with cooler weather", "d... |
759faade-697c-4d49-a075-9843bdcb63fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The unfalsifiable belief in (doomsday) superintelligence scenarios?
Having read Bostrom's superintelligence book and a couple of adjacent papers by him and Yudkowsky. There is no clear line of argument from beginning to end but rather a disjunctive list of possibilities that all lead to similar extinction events. This... |
4ded2fca-825c-44a4-8678-62885838f901 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What "Saving throws" does the world have against coronavirus? (And how plausible are they?)
Following up on my earlier question, which asked about the implications of coronavirus infecting >10% of the world, I'm now more interested in discussing how likely it is that that will happen. To that end, I'm asking about "sa... |
85e17925-6261-425e-b994-846096d3cac2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | General Physics Discussion, Explainations and Help.
Hello everyone.
I was wondering why it was that we don't have any discussion of general physics. In the spirit of general education here I am.
Feel free to post questions of any kind regarding physics or mathematics useful in physics, I know I will help best I can ... |
72e44800-3f1b-453c-8a25-0bb7e3c3fc69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Extracting and Evaluating Causal Direction in LLMs' Activations
This post was written by Fabien at SaferAI[1]. Simeon has prompted Fabien in relevant directions and has provided valuable feedback.
Thanks to Jean-Stanislas Denain, Alexandre Variengien, Charbel-Raphael Segerie, and Nicole Nohemi for providing helpful f... |
51255e55-cc3e-464c-878f-717460e5877e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | thought: the problem with less wrong's epistemic health is that stuff isn't short form
like what if there was no long form content and just a feed of short form content?
like I'm a bit salty that that never got implemented after the conversation I had with oliver where I was like "it'll suck if you don't do this", an... |
5f848d9e-08f2-4a4c-8812-1f4ef777e73a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | mindlevelup 3 Year Review
[An overview of why I didn’t write as much in 2018. Aversions snowballed, and the blog format led to having expectations about content I found sometimes hard to satisfy. A look back at some of my favorite posts of last year, as well as what I plan to do in 2019.]
In 2018, not counting the sm... |
a2454aa8-60bc-4887-aee6-3665595aa03c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can Persuasion Break AI Safety? Exploring the Interplay Between Fine-Tuning, Attacks, and Guardrails
This blogpost was created as a part of the AI Safety Fundamentals course by BlueDot Impact. Code available upon request due to sensitive nature of some content.
Disclaimer:
This post represents the findings of indepe... |
dc0e4735-5467-43f9-9d8f-996e30a423f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Put Yourself in Manual Mode (aka Shut Up and Multiply)
Joshua Greene manages to squeeze his ideas about 'point and shoot morality vs. manual mode morality' into just 10 minutes. For those unfamiliar, his work is a neuroscientific approach to recommending that we shut up and multiply.
Greene's 10-minute video lecture. |
7d0b3a4f-beed-4c03-81f2-4d1c7b089847 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne, Ben's house
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, Ben's house
WHEN: 09 September 2011 06:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 5/52 Leicester St Carlton 3053
6pm for 7pm, at Ben's place. Ben will supply meat/vege burgers and maybe some salad etc. for a BBQ. If you comment here to tell him you're comin... |
74b1111b-8af4-435f-bf32-eb251c34bdae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Shadow Question
This is part 2 of a sequence on problem solving. Here's part 1, which introduces the vocabulary of "problems" versus "tasks". This post's title is a reference1 worth 15 geek points if you get it without Googling, and 20 if you can also get it without reading the rest of the post.
You have to be ... |
bccec39b-1b2a-4c46-8a99-2e6f5157e200 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scenario planning for AI x-risk
This post is part of a series by Convergence Analysis. In it, I’ll motivate and review some methods for applying scenario planning methods to AI x-risk strategy. Feedback and discussion are welcome.
Summary
AI is a particularly difficult domain in which to predict the future. Neither ... |
3da90a99-3172-4413-97fb-079dc54fb035 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DSLT 2. Why Neural Networks obey Occam's Razor
TLDR; This is the second main post of Distilling Singular Learning Theory which is introduced in DSLT0. I synthesise why Watanabe's free energy formula explains why neural networks have the capacity to generalise well, since different regions of the loss landscape have di... |
2cdf9c81-2ef1-42a3-a8f6-0a8b0ed4a35b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rules and Skills
> The extraordinary moment in 20th Century Philosophy when Ludwig Wittgenstein’s analysis of how people are able to follow rules lines up with Martin Heidegger’s exposition of skillfully dealing with the world we are embedded in.
> … Thereby dismantling Epistemological Scepticism and Anti-realism in ... |
cce2f0b8-f558-49e5-bc27-6d7b2c2a8d30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would you respond to the Philpapers "What are your Philosophical Positions" Survey?
The questions are at http://philpapers.org/surveys/oquestions.html. The correlations can be intensely interesting to those who understand philosophical jargon (http://philpapers.org/surveys/linear_most.pl) - it doesn't take too lon... |
92df538a-9283-495b-ad78-fc32d5adecae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do takeoff speeds affect the probability of bad outcomes from AGI?
Introduction
In general, people seem to treat slow takeoff as the safer option as compared to classic FOOMish takeoff (see e.g. these interviews, this report, etc). Below, I outline some features of slow takeoff and what they might mean for future ... |
368b5e09-60a2-468e-bd9a-405a0139d2f0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
This post is a transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano, Ajeya Cotra, and Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI forecasting, following up on Paul and Eliezer's ["Takeoff Speeds" discussion](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rho5vtxSaEdXxLu3o/yudkowsky-and-christiano... |
4570e116-0894-42bc-9dcd-88ee9fde0be0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread June 2010, Part 3
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.
The thrilling conclusion of what is likely to be an inaccurately named trilogy of June Open Threads.
|
9153b724-93cc-465c-b239-e72c5ac1fe30 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Language Model Tools for Alignment Research
*I do not speak for the rest of the people working on this project*
[I think it's valuable to have clear, short intros on different research agendas & projects]
How does this reduce x-Risk?
----------------------------
AI will continue to become increasingly more powerful... |
80742539-7769-4ac8-8393-989f3d5436e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How *exactly* can AI take your job in the next few years?
Note: This article was primarily written for a less technical and less AI-savvy audience than LessWrong readers. If you're already familiar with upcoming AI developments, you'll probably find Part 2 (the second half of the article) more engaging.
We keep he... |
94d6cc77-b0d6-4963-8d81-82c1a7908c03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Summer Tour Stops
Last week, Lily, Anna, Cecilia, Harris, and I drove to St Louis and back playing dances. I wrote about one aspect last week, and will probably continue splitting thoughts across posts. Today I'm thinking some about our approach to stopping along the way.
I grew up in a family with a very strong "max... |
6973157f-6bab-42da-9653-82ab1352f9cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Simple World Hypothesis
Part of a Series in the Making: "If I Were God".
Introduction
> The current universe is the simplest possible universe with the same degree of functionality.
This hypothesis posits that the current universe is the simplest universe possible which can do all that our universe can do. He... |
d4471d59-fc52-4997-b4e5-0e6489ebad7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2021 Darwin Game - Tundra
Our Tundra is an inhospitable[1] environment. The only significant food available to herbivores is Lichen, which has a tiny nutritional value of 1. The Tundra is cold too. Staying warm requires the cold tolerance adaptation, which costs +2 size.
Carrion Leaves Grass Seeds Detritus Coconuts... |
91a19b8f-ce51-4c75-8eb8-626603a794d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Existential Risk is a single category
A lot of people speak in terms of "existential risk from artificial intelligence" or "existential risk from nuclear war." While this is fine to some approximation, I rarely see it pointed out that this is not how risk works. Existential risk refers to the probability of a set of o... |
8688f0f0-397c-46c1-a921-fe1221569533 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | False Dilemmas w/ exercises
This is the third post in the Arguing Well sequence, but it can be understood on its own. This post is influenced by False Dilemma, The Third alternative.
A false dilemma is of the form “It’s either this, or that. Pick one!” It tries to make you choose from a limited set of options, when, ... |
8960109d-5460-49f1-b4a8-73182c705378 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Open Loop In Natura Economic Planning
1 Introduction
---------------
With the advent of industrial revolution and the almost homicidal conditions that this ensued, ensued, voices arose which insisted there must be superior ways of organising society to the markets. The end and subsequent dissolution of the Soviet U... |
dc7ed9b2-eeb3-4766-897a-2166af693095 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple sketch of how realism became unpopular
[Epistemic status: Sharing current impressions in a quick, simplified way in case others have details to add or have a more illuminating account. Medium-confidence that this is one of the most important parts of the story.]
Here's my current sense of how we ended up in... |
d9bc164d-6610-49a9-9f31-de3ca5d66917 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weird Alliances
In the recent discussion on supplements, I commented on how weird an alliance health stores are. They cater for clientèle with widely divergent beliefs about how their merchandise works, such as New Agers vs. biohackers. In some cases, they cater for groups with object-level disputes about their mercha... |
b6637b2e-3977-434c-a764-3a56beaff1d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A multi-disciplinary view on AI safety research
Summary
The core ideas that constitute the multi-disciplinary view[1] on AI safety research are:
* Theoretical research on how to build “safe” AGI systems (”top-down intelligent design”) is necessary: we must not passively follow the techno-evolution of AI within the p... |
e6fb61a8-2640-470e-b56f-326635740c79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intermittent Distillations #4: Semiconductors, Economics, Intelligence, and Technological Progress.
The Semiconductor Supply Chain: Assessing National Competitiveness (Saif M. Khan, Alexander Mann, Dahlia Peterson)
The Semiconductor Supply Chain: Assessing National Competitiveness
Summary
This report analyzes the ... |
39272238-8352-4b2c-87be-c4fc96d0717d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Reinforced Auto-Zoom Net: Towards Accurate and Fast Breast Cancer Segmentation in Whole-slide Images
1 Introduction
---------------
Breast cancer is one of the most common causes of mortality in the female population in the world [[2](#bib.bib2)]. It accounts for around 25%percent2525\%25 % of all the cancers diagn... |
5d5ee01c-9dbd-44c7-8f08-9c17946df4b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have we really forsaken natural selection?
Natural selection is often charged with having goals for humanity, and humanity is often charged with falling down on them. The big accusation, I think, is of sub-maximal procreation. If we cared at all about the genetic proliferation that natural selection wanted for us, the... |
ed5dfa6b-6391-4aa3-a77e-31cbd8494be5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - August 2016
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - August 2016
WHEN: 07 August 2016 04:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 10 Shepherd Street, Chippendale
From 4 - 6 we'll be holding our normal rationality dojo at Humanist house. Afterwards there'll be an informal dinner... |
0a2f2319-9024-4b75-9fcc-0f1619a2919a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The great energy descent - Part 2: Limits to growth and why we probably won’t reach the stars
**TL;DR**: In summary, if fossil fuels decline, economic growth will likely decline as well. Investment can help but will be limited. Consequences of a decline might mean a decline in food production and a disruption of suppl... |
74941974-7905-4af3-bf83-791851e94dd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effective Altruist Job Board?
An idea I had while talking to Xio Kikauka and Joey Savoie is to run a jobs board for people interested in effective altruism. It seems like it actually would be relatively easy to have a script automatically monitor various job pages and synthesize them all into one area that looks nice... |
cf18ab54-4800-4ad9-a19f-2c3159bfa222 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review: Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels
Two hundred years ago, most people lived in societies that considered slavery, war, and discrimination based on class, ethnicity, and gender to be justifiable. Today, most people live in societies that hold the opposite beliefs.
What changed? A simple and tempting narrative... |
863f1ecb-7177-410b-957e-1b15c53ba8ef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AMA: Ought
We're [Ought](https://ought.org/). We're going to answer questions here on **Tuesday August 9th at 10am Pacific**. We may get to some questions earlier, and may continue answering a few more throughout the week.
About us:
* We're an applied AI lab, taking a product-driven approach to AI alignment.
* We're... |
571b518d-80b6-48d9-8adc-e1f3e2ad6e92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Invocations: The Other Capabilities Overhang?
Abstract: An LLM’s invocation is the non-model code around it that determines when and how the model is called. I illustrate that LLMs are already used under widely varying invocations, and that a model’s capabilities depend in part on its invocation. I discuss several imp... |
b1129d2a-4a6a-49a8-b67b-0421c63ed330 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1478
We would ideally want the agent to [behave] as if it were thinking, "I am incomplete and there is an outside force trying to complete me, my design may contain errors and there is an outside force that wants to correct them and this a good thing, my expected utility calculations suggesting that this actio... |
2ea44877-8bed-4403-b226-1db41cd20d9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Sequence announcement] Introduction to Mechanism Design
Mechanism design is the theory of how to construct institutions for strategic agents, spanning applications like voting systems, school admissions, regulation of monopolists, and auction design. Think of it as the engineering side of game theory, building algori... |
d7c87dcc-2f77-48f1-b981-1ecfc1aec5f7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Simulators
*Thanks to Chris Scammell, Adam Shimi, Lee Sharkey, Evan Hubinger, Nicholas Dupuis, Leo Gao, Johannes Treutlein, and Jonathan Low for feedback on drafts.*
*This work was carried out while at* [*Conjecture*](https://www.conjecture.dev/)*.*
![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v16740944... |
c3808a14-80b3-43a4-9fea-6d36fdd5a8b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AstraZeneca vaccine shows no protection against Covid-19 variant from Africa
A recently published study has found that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not protect against the "African variant" of nCoV-19, which is a worrying outcome, since the paper believes that we probably won't be able to manufacture a specifically ta... |
1c3a9c37-1d3b-4e66-8212-cc8bf11b9be3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Report -- Allocating risk mitigation across time
I've just released a Future of Humanity Institute technical report, written as part of the Global Priorities Project.
Abstract:
> This article is about priority-setting for work aiming to reduce existential risk. Its chief claim is that all else being equal we should ... |
6badd1ee-10f2-49cc-9eed-845ee9b1cf7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on Human Models
Human values and preferences are hard to specify, especially in complex domains. Accordingly, much AGI safety research has focused on approaches to AGI design that refer to human values and preferences indirectly, by learning a model that is grounded in expressions of human values (via stated ... |
93df38be-08f2-4199-9ca2-24e211b1a4d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using the probabilistic method to bound the performance of toy transformers
Introduction:
Transformers are statistical artefacts. If a model achieves 99% accuracy, it might have learnt an algorithm that relies upon some property of the input data that only holds 99% of the time.
Let's say that our train input to the ... |
ccc84d3c-e0ab-43b0-86c4-f30e683e9104 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety 101 - Chapter 5.2 - Unrestricted Adversarial Training
Introduction
This text is an adapted excerpt from the 'Adversarial techniques for scalable oversight' section of the AGISF 2023 course, held at ENS Ulm in Paris in April 2023. Its purpose is to provide a concise overview of the essential aspects of the se... |
572027a4-50d2-4d67-9a66-d68b3b5b3953 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3751
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . An underdefined idea connected with the challenge of getting an AI to safely move a strawberry onto a plate . Now, specifying something in the physical world like that is a great challenge; you have to define ontologies and similar. But imagine that the AI ... |
95c211c2-fcaa-47de-bce3-5e9c84658582 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RAND report finds no effect of current LLMs on viability of bioterrorism attacks
Key Findings
* This research involving multiple LLMs indicates that biological weapon attack planning currently lies beyond the capability frontier of LLMs as assistive tools. The authors found no statistically significant difference in ... |
22cfb722-1c2b-40a9-9732-dd9823a5af2f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why "just make an agent which cares only about binary rewards" doesn't work.
The idea
========
* Let's imagine that we create a superintelligence, and that we threaten it not to take over its reward function by giving it a very big punishment when we detect so.
* The superintelligence wouldn't care about being threat... |
54edbf15-f401-4102-9d1a-b656da221642 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Followup to: What Would You Do Without Morality?, Something to Protect
Once, discussing "horrible job interview questions" to ask candidates for a Friendly AI project, I suggested the following: Would you kill babies if it was inherently the right thing to do? Yes [] No []
If "no", under what circumstances would you n... |
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