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f614be7f-311b-4808-a385-f961c0ba44cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do I choose the best metric to measure my calibration?
|
933d8008-903f-43e7-9388-c22ca3c47098 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Resolve Forecasts With No Central Authority?
I've been chatting with some people about using Prediction Markets/Forecasts alongside Community Notes.
An initial suggestion is just to link to to forecasting sites really well. It's a good suggestion but I'm not gonna discuss that here.
Other suggestions revolve ... |
06b1e960-abcb-4e12-b509-bd4827608127 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Narratives as catalysts of catastrophic trajectories
Understanding the power narratives have over different approaches to transformational technology, from Cold War to AI era.
I am conducting research into the role of narratives as propagators / mitigators of catastrophic risks. With the rapid development of AI syste... |
b3097a6d-9076-4a0c-a613-8f790e7e761a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hacking Quantum Immortality
Quantum immortality sounds exactly like the mythical hell: living forever in perpetual agony, unable to die and in your own branch of existence separate from everyone else you ever knew.
What if we can hack quantum immortality to force continued good health, and the mutual survival of our ... |
7e8580d4-f30c-42c2-844b-bb425cd3487c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why is aging research our primary attempt at immortality?
Even after solving aging, we're susceptible to death by accident, disease, and murder. Are there other research directions for achieving extremely long lifespans (at least 1,000-10,000 years)?
Even if they're not popular, does anyone have an idea they think wo... |
faf422dc-93fc-456d-940f-c6428e01bde4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Online Optimal Philanthropy Meeting
Update: The meeting will occur at 1.30pm Australian Eastern Daylights Savings time on Tuesday, November 6, 2012 in Australia (Monday evening in the Americas) on Google+ Hangouts.
Topics will include how to make near mode progress on far mode problems, the potential for cascades, cy... |
f2f676d8-f6c1-4b48-8719-bb5fb325cfc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Another formalization attempt:
Central Argument That AGI Presents a Global Catastrophic Risk
Chalmers recently requested a formalized argument why AI is catastrophic risk. Here is my attempt to write it (not polished).
Short version
1. Future AI will be very powerful soon.
2. Future AI systems will likely be not... |
6e4973a8-b57f-4136-8812-17ec90aaef30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Techies Wanted: How STEM Backgrounds Can Advance Safe AI Policy
TL;DR – Individuals with technical backgrounds are well-positioned to advance AI safety policy in numerous ways. Opportunities include both A) technical research directions, including evals, compute governance mechanisms, infosec, and forecasting, and B) ... |
fbddec77-5935-4def-8e97-f201e09649c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are Yearly/Monthly Book Suggestion Threads a Good Idea?
I thought I had seen a thread recently asking for book recommendations, and I had a recommendation to post there, but the thread I found is from about a year and a half ago. I didn't want to make an entire thread for my book suggestion, that would be a bit extrem... |
2e9b57f1-1574-4a42-9644-c74b15d817be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ChatGPT: Tantalizing afterthoughts in search of story trajectories [induction heads]
Several times during my undergraduate years I would finish a paper, turn it in, the then Wham! it hit me. That should have been my theme. That is to say, I would get an idea and explore it in a paper, but it was only after I declared... |
1c33057c-bb1b-461f-8942-0d5fe5d9e099 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | US tech giants found Partnership on AI to Benefit People and Society to ensure AI is developed safely and ethically
|
84afe1db-baee-4058-9147-562d450a77c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : DC EA meetup / Petrov day dinner
Discussion article for the meetup : DC EA meetup / Petrov day dinner
WHEN: 26 September 2014 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 3001 Veazey Ter NW # 1005, Washington, DC 20008
On this day in 1983, in an unparalleled feat of Effective Altruism, Stanislav Petrov declined to destroy th... |
bb0fc88e-f375-4ec8-bda5-a1572ba552d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I find Davidad's plan interesting
Abstract
The aim of this text is to give an overview of Davidad’s safety plan, while also outlining some of the limitations and challenges. Additionally, I’ll explain why I would like to contribute to this field.
Disclaimers
I am not Davidad, I tried to convey his ideas as I... |
b5ec5b61-9dbd-4006-8841-3a888616f722 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Reward hacking and Goodhart’s law by evolutionary algorithms
Nice collection of anecdotes from the Evolutionary Computation and Artificial Life research communities about evolutionary algorithms subverting researchers intentions, exposing unrecognized bugs in their code, producing unexpected adaptations, or exhibiting... |
e52fa59d-75b9-443b-9d8c-68b398f19f49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brain Upload Comic
http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2186
Convincing argument, or faulty metaphor?
I would go with the latter, but I don't trust my brain's abilities at 5:30 in the morning. |
c4727c37-8953-4bdd-8e5a-1509cac9839c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If you wanted to actually reduce the trade deficit, how would you do it?
What do we want?
The US trade deficit is a direct byproduct of the Bretton Woods economic system where the US Dollar acts as the world's reserve currency. This means that if people want to save for the future (as many do) the money they save ine... |
96b57159-f69b-42c4-89ee-8473c3a049ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI & Liability Ideathon
Overview
Join us for the AI & Liability Ideathon, a two-week event on December 7, 2024, at 3:00 PM BST.
https://lu.ma/sjd7r89v
Join lawyers, researchers and developers to create solutions for AI Liability. Propose, develop and refine ideas with a team, ending in a presentation evening where... |
06e647d5-d28b-4232-8c01-5d990d03d170 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zooming your mind in and out
I recently noticed I had two mental processes opposing one another in an interesting way.
The first mental process was instilled by reading Daniel Kahneman on the focusing illusion and Paul Graham on procrastination. This process encourages me to "zoom out" when engaging in low-value act... |
02663e1b-1ef3-4a43-8753-ccd039567520 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Define “Agent” (Embedded)
I would be very grateful for as many different attempts at rigorous or semi-rigorous definitions of an “agent” as possible.
Specifically, a definition of an (embedded) Agent that makes it intuitively clear the nature of the boundary between Agent and Environment.
(I have read up on Agency, ... |
743e1c2a-21c1-448f-9a7d-93624b716e92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Remaining human
If our morality is complex and directly tied to what's human—if we're seeking to avoid building paperclip maximizers—how do you judge and quantify the danger in training yourself to become more rational if it should drift from being more human?
----------------------------------------
My friend is a ... |
cb2ecb70-e20d-484d-a6b5-360a8503c20b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A measure-theoretic generalization of logical induction
% operators that are separated from the operand by a space
% operators that require brackets
% operators that require parentheses
% Paper specific
Logical induction is defined in terms of logical sentences and theories, but its principles ... |
5a61a326-c83b-43b1-a36e-3ef6a69712a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Avoiding the Study of Being Sincere
This is a mind-dump of sorts: I don't expect I can make a top-level post of this without extensive external input, and am not sure there's anything interesting here. But the possibility seems high enough to consider it openly (and if someone else sees something here they can run wit... |
426da023-3398-4e1b-9ed7-7a29b6b749b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Research Taxonomy Generator and Visualizer
I recently built a tool which orchestrates LLMs to generate a hierarchical taxonomy from a corpus of research papers (taxonomy-generator), and a nice UI to visualize the generated map (TRecursive). To test the system, I ran it on a corpus of over 3000 AI safety related paper... |
2fc23788-07f7-4854-bdf9-283e0ee4a365 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | ""Mirror neurons" are neurons that are active both when performing an action and observing the same action—for example, a neuron that fires when you hold up a finger or see someone else holding up a finger. Such neurons have been directly recorded in primates, and consistent neuroimaging evidence has been found for hum... |
fc3d6ef1-b638-4126-af46-7f6ce223121f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A template for doing annual reviews
Quick post because I am starting to think about it and want to promote the practice.
Looking for a way to review your year and plan for the next?
This is an annual review/planner template that I made in google sheets.
It incorporates questions from Alex Vermeer, a few of my own, ... |
b11a8fad-122b-4425-bab2-b0dd6e35790c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | [Placeholder] Norm-abiding strategy ideas
[](//support.google.com/docs/)User authentication failedGoogle Docs needs accessAccess grantedCookie access failedGoogle Docs cannot authenticate due to a new browser setting
Google Docs couldn't authentica... |
5b4f843d-eaff-4e5a-b9e8-186efe1e926d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Timeless Decision Theory and Meta-Circular Decision Theory
(This started as a reply to [Gary Drescher's comment here](/lw/15z/ingredients_of_timeless_decision_theory/1217) in which he proposes a Metacircular Decision Theory (MCDT); but it got way too long so I turned it into an article, which also contains some amplif... |
d8f9b77b-8666-4799-97cd-c03eafb1c055 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A few Superhuman examples of Superaligned Superintelligence from Google Bard (Thanksgiving 2023)
TL;DR:
1. PALUNFT: Perfect Atomic Logic Universe Number Functional Theory
2. SGUT: Superhuman Formal Hegelian Synthesis Grand Unified Theory
3. SCADM: Superhuman Cure All Diseases Mechanism
4. SSFACCISP: Superaligned S... |
654d81c4-f469-4e16-b354-ff49b8661038 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | High Reliability Orgs, and AI Companies
Epistemic Effort: Rough notes from a shallow dive. Looked into this for a few hours. I didn't find a strong takeaway but think this is probably a useful jumping-off-point for further work.
Most likely, whether I like it or not, there will someday be AGI research companies worki... |
2e3c8515-0ccd-4c05-a709-729d001a7975 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Questions to ask theist philosophers? I will soon be speaking with several
I am about to graduate from one of the only universities in the world that has a high concentration of high-caliber analytic philosophers who are theists. (Specifically, the University of Notre Dame, IN) So as not to miss this once-in-a-lifetim... |
baa4fb6b-6372-4bb8-8d7c-c8c40607209a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Early situational awareness and its implications, a story
Overview
There are two common mental models of how situational awareness emerges: (A) training for situational awareness via e.g. dialogue RLHF; (B) instrumental reasoning on a base language modeling objective i.e. advanced mesa-optimization. In this post, I wi... |
1a8bb2d1-e77a-4ad8-b8fb-1a4476948a91 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Could AI have emotions?
In principle, future AIs could gain the capacity to experience emotions. If [functionalism](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/functionalism/) is true, then an emotion is anything that plays the same role emotions play in a human mind. One possible way to build AI with human-like emotions would... |
e08cbe7a-b377-401a-a9f9-2bdaf945d902 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [TIME magazine] DeepMind’s CEO Helped Take AI Mainstream. Now He’s Urging Caution (Perrigo, 2023)
*Linkposting, tagging and excerpting in accord with '*[*Should pretty much all content that's EA-relevant and/or created by EAs be (link)posted to the Forum?*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kYDT4u8QagZmPFdCL/s... |
1220ee43-477c-4065-ba16-64fb49e112a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [timeboxed exercise] write me your model of AI human-existential safety and the alignment problems in 15 minutes
Motivation
I had a 15 minute interview last night in which I was asked "why do you believe in xrisk, and what does AI have to do with it?" I thought it was too big a question for a 15 minute interview, but ... |
95c35c01-b3eb-4aa8-bfa5-87f79f8e1bab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts on reward engineering
*Note: This is the first post from **part five: possible approaches** of [the sequence on iterated amplification](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/EmDuGeRw749sD3GKd). The fifth section of the sequence breaks down some of these problems further and describes some possible approaches.*
... |
f95d0a3e-15b0-4f21-b489-c7669a66de91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Signaling bias in philosophical intuition
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
Intuitions are a major source of evidence in philosophy. Intuitions are also a significant source of evidence about the person having the intuitions. In most situations where onlookers are likely to read something into a... |
3007b0a1-d67f-4761-95da-4310c7cc5eea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Test for Language Model Consciousness
**TL;DR**:
1. Train an Language Model (LM) to accurately answer questions about itself
2. Validate that the LM accurately answers held-out questions about itself
3. Test whether the LM answers “yes” questions asking if it experiences phenomenally consciousness
I believe the ab... |
851e4cb6-8267-4c52-9dd1-90a0ce16227c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Turning Up the Heat: Insights from Tao's 'Analysis II'
,
Foreword
It's been too long - a month and a half since my last review, and about three months since Analysis I. I've been immersed in my work for CHAI, but reality doesn't grade on a curve, and I want more mathematical firepower.
On the other hand, I've been ... |
8575bee7-9093-4f08-9859-1cc508d1d167 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Participating in a Covid-19 Vaccine Trial #2: We pretty much knew it would work the whole time
The past few weeks have been uneventful. I spend a few minutes each day filling out a questionnaire on the Patient Cloud app I installed during my first visit. The study is interested in reactions to the injection itself: re... |
06cf5e9b-1153-4b10-ac62-50c360cb5218 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Running the numbers: Cryo vs Discount rate
The following is authored by Colby Davis. I am posting for him because he doesn't have an account with any karma. Someone recently requested numbers on cryo preservation costs. I'll note that my own opinion is that for young people unlikely to die investing money in research ... |
4e3e0574-8507-40a2-8acd-e46ec08a5d0f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | I want to help out AI alignment without necessarily making major life changes. What are some simple things I can do to contribute?
It’s great that you want to help! Here are some ways you can learn more about AI safety and start contributing:
Learn More:
Learning more about AI alignment will provide you with good fo... |
bb5daed2-4a18-4623-a306-79fa05d756a6 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "An insight that I’d kind of already had, but which this interview with Michael Taft (relevant section starts at about 32 minutes) helped crystallize:We tend to think of a “cult leader” as someone who intentionally sets out to create a cult. But most cult-like things probably don’t form like that. A lot of people feel ... |
7321b13b-dfd8-479f-903c-f9c6785b8595 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research on climate organizations
Destruction of tropical rainforest, as prevented by Cool Earth (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Here is the second post summarizing some of the climate change research I did at CEA last summer (the first is here). Below are links to outlines of the reasoning behind a few of the estimates... |
204cc45c-868c-40d5-afbf-1508fdf03ee2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Linkpost] The AGI Show podcast
*This is a linkpost for* [*www.theagishow.com*](https://www.theagishow.com/)*. Also on YouTube at* [https://www.youtube.com/@theagishow.](https://www.youtube.com/@theagishow)
Hey everyone, my name is Soroush and I work full-time on AGI alignment.
As part of my work in alignment, I've ... |
b1bead98-fb7e-4e19-a07f-3aa00d4994c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Polarization is the problem, "normalization" is the answer
|
4a3d58b6-853c-42a6-b8fc-6111ae347b60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Achieving AI alignment through deliberate uncertainty in multiagent systems
Epistemic status: A crazy idea I had that probably won't work. But: It's a very unusual and creative approach to AI alignment, and I suspect this will inspire new ideas in other researchers.
I outline a general approach to achieve this goal t... |
0601b568-71fa-4c99-ab90-3acbc2bc1b23 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Software Engineer Internship / Staff Openings
The Machine Intelligence Research Institute is looking for highly capable software engineers to directly support our [AI alignment](https://intelligence.org/2017/04/12/ensuring/) research efforts, with a focus on projects related to machine learning. We’re seeking engineer... |
a548c101-9e72-46f3-a22e-8c323eac0356 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Visual Prompt Injections: Results on testing AI spam-defense and AI vulnerability to deceptive web ads.
Epistemic Status: Exploratory/my best guess https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hrm59GdN2yDPWbtrd/feature-idea-epistemic-status
Epistemic Effort: ~ 2 months of work
Contributions: Thanks to Clement Neo and Alignment J... |
f474189d-5381-41e5-85e8-0ea4b4186879 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agenda Manipulation
Rigging an election can be hard. But sometimes it can be easy. If a committee has an agenda of proposals to choose from, where each proposal is compared pairwise using majority rule against another proposal, until a single proposal is victorious, then you can make any arbitrary proposal win. The Mc... |
07824271-21df-4909-9d9a-e5d01cdb17fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experimental evidence of the value of redundant oral tradition
Something I've been hearing a lot lately (specifically from Orthodox Jews, although it comes up a lot in debates about religion) is that having a large number of people telling a story makes it more likely the story is true, because multiple witnesses can ... |
ec708a0f-52fa-4949-9660-a919385f3bb3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Ethan Caballero-by The Inside View-date 20220505
# Ethan On Why Scale is All You Need on The Inside View Podcast
Interviewee: Ethan Caballero
Date: 2022-05-05
Ethan is known on Twitter as the edgiest person at MILA. We discuss all the gossips around scaling large language models in what will be later known as the Ed... |
110a2882-d352-4da0-bd95-a4c72d827455 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What should the norms around AI voices be?
In previous discussions of AI risks, the ability for an AI to be very persuasive is often seen as one possible risk. Humans find some voices more persuasive than other voices.
If we can trust Scarlett Johansson's description of her interactions with OpenAI, OpenAI wanted to ... |
482899c6-f3aa-448f-80e2-be9b2d40bee1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What causes burnout?
When I try to figure out how to balance personal happiness with saving the world, I think a lot about burnout. If I make a major change - e.g. changing careers - what are the chances I'll burn out and become a lot less useful as a result?
I've never burned out, so I don't know where that edge is... |
1d21fb36-c3ce-45d2-a36f-4deba6b908db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Memory Decoding Journal Club: Neocortical synaptic engrams for remote contextual memories
Join Us for the Memory Decoding Journal Club!
A collaboration of the Carboncopies Foundation and BPF Aspirational Neuroscience
This time, we’re diving into a groundbreaking paper:
"Neocortical synaptic engrams for remote contex... |
3c729907-00c2-4c1b-ad28-6a536bd55432 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup 10-19-2011
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup 10-19-2011
WHEN: 19 October 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7pm - 9pm Wednesday, October 19th.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar, located inside the Westside Pavi... |
996e6dfc-08a3-47ab-a20c-4faba495760f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Order relation
An **order relation** (also called an **order** or **ordering**) is a [binary relation](https://arbital.com/p/3nt) $\le$ on a [set](https://arbital.com/p/3jz) $S$ that can be used to order the elements in that set.
An order relation satisfies the following properties:
1. For all $a \in S$, $a \le a$. ... |
925d91fd-6bf9-4790-9ffc-4070607d5507 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the 2014 program equilibrium iterated PD tournament
Last year, AlexMennen ran a prisoner's dilemma tournament with bots that could see each other's source code, which was dubbed a "program equilibrium" tournament. This year, I will be running a similar tournament. Here's how it's going to work: Anyone can s... |
e93e5cfa-8313-454f-98a1-3f34ec791513 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on a year of college
Crossposted from my blog. Considering collaborating on a version of this that's tailored specifically towards undergrads in the LW or EA communities.
----------------------------------------
I just completed my first year of college (US university). I’ve written up some personal ref... |
b6dd90d6-52f8-4de1-b11f-c258db8e6b4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
I think there is little time left before someone builds AGI (median ~2030). Once upon a time, I didn't think this.
This post attempts to walk through some of the observations and insights that collapsed my estimates.
The core ideas are as follows:
1. We've already captu... |
93935089-c93b-4181-991a-e8b83ffb8b9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explore/Exploit for Conversations
Something status: I've started to try on an explore/exploit lens for thinking about conversation, and I like it. Here's some rough ideas. On the editing pass of this, a feel like I haven't properly separated the important ideas explicitly enough, but it's fine.
You are in explore mod... |
6b8e0e54-a54d-4857-ba81-5d896ad0e4b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | $500 bounty for engagement on asymmetric AI risk
Announcing a $500 bounty for work that meaningfully engages with the idea of asymmetric existential AI risk.
Background
Existential risk has been defined by the rationalist/Effective Altruist sphere as existential relative to the human species, under the premise that ... |
9a9f8e33-d708-4f46-aa36-b23fcde7c0b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Concrete Multi-Step Variant of Double Crux I Have Used Successfully
=== Intro
Raymond Arnold has written about the failure of many discussions to result in clear progress recognizable by both sides. In general, the ideas around double crux are useful but the technique can be under-specified (especially for people ... |
e057f8c3-63b7-4df5-b40c-12db3d42e4a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brun's theorem and sieve theory
Brun's theorem is a relatively famous result in analytic number theory that says the sum of the reciprocals of the twin primes converges to a finite value. In other words, we have
∑p,p+2prime1p+1p+2=B
for some finite constant B. This is in contrast to the same sum taken over all prime... |
f5964ede-f301-4779-9ffe-49d455e479c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Omicron Post #7
Here are some better worlds we might have lived in, but don’t.
1. In a better world, I could focus on this full time and also maybe even hire a research assistant, and be better able to scour for information.
2. In a better world than that, there would be a department at a newspaper, or some other s... |
20a0366a-abda-4cbe-945b-02fa36d0b69c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Signalling & Simulacra
> "We lie all the time, but if everyone knows that we're lying, is a lie really a lie?"
>
> -- Moral Mazes
A common Bayesian account of communication analyzes signalling games: games in which there is hidden information, and some actions can serve to communicate that information between player... |
b32aa2fb-f4c9-45ea-b378-c99cd81c72c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the best online community for questions about AI capabilities?
I'm interested in learning more about existing ML model capabilities, and in particular how easily a model that is used on one task could be used for another, similar task.
For example, if I want to know and/or estimate whether an existing AI syst... |
00931634-c1e9-4c09-956f-86a4b4d44696 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The transitivity of trust
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
Suppose you tell a close friend a secret. You consider them trustworthy, and don’t fear for its release. Suppose they request to tell the secret to a friend of theirs who you don’t know. They claim this person is also highly trustworthy... |
9b0a440b-f85f-4a27-bb6a-03046741111e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Rationality Diary
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Rationality Diary
WHEN: 22 February 2016 06:15:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA
We'll be meeting to tell stories about when we tried to solve a problem in our lives, and how it went.
We'l... |
e3eadab6-ab32-4490-82fa-7dbf2ce55def | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What is wrong with this approach to corrigibility?
Essentially: a button that when you press it kills the AI but instantly gives it reward **equal to its expected discounted future reward**. And to be clear, this is the AI's estimate of its expected discounted future reward, not some outside estimate.
(This is in... |
da872a68-6e0a-4c70-8ea5-a962bc97ca1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What to optimize for in life?
I listened to an interview with Patrick Collison were he claimed that when coding one should always optimize for speed - even when speed is not an issue. (Presumably because it leads to good coding practices, clean code, less build up of unnecessary functionality etc.)
Assuming that is c... |
bc29c5e5-7b26-4ff0-b3bd-d6ae6963dfdb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effectively Less Altruistically Wrong Codex
My post on the fact that incentive structures are eating the central place to be for rationalists has generated 140 comments which I have generated no clear action in the horizon.
I post here again to incentivize that it also generates some attempts to shake the ground a b... |
821ab115-f2f2-46bd-b6a6-96c385edc337 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Prague
This summary was posted to LW Main on January 23rd. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Czech's first Meetup Prague: 16 February 2015 06:00PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Dall... |
b067d9c9-0287-4e97-a957-0f0513cff1b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mind the Coherence Gap: Lessons from Steering Llama with Goodfire
TL;DR
Context. Feature‑steering promises a cleaner, more interpretable way to shape LLM behavior than other methods, such as plain prompting. But does it actually work better?
What I did. Benchmarked Goodfire's Autosteer method against three others (Si... |
775f36a1-42b6-47bf-959e-e37f04af831e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What happens if you drink acetone?
Question: Should you drink acetone?
Answer: No.
But, out of interest, what if you did? |
e8120ba7-0815-43a1-8a79-5b33e375e53d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | “Fake Options” in Newcomb’s Problem
This is an exploration of a way of looking at Newcomb’s Problem that helped me understand it. I hope somebody else finds it useful. I may add discussions of other game theory problems in this format if anybody wants them.
Consider Newcomb’s Problem:: Omega offers you two boxes, ... |
557a2826-25c8-42a6-b72d-d6d7b1d4c259 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Limit of Language Models
Epistemic Status
Highlighting a thesis in Janus' "Simulators" that I think is insufficiently appreciated.
Thesis
In the limit, models optimised for minimising predictive loss on humanity's text corpus converge towards general intelligence[1].
----------------------------------------
... |
d9aa84cb-a13c-433d-94ac-c35ca6bcbe71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-Coercive Perfectionism
Perfectionism is a surprisingly common ailment among both procrastinators who don't get stuff done, and high performers who get a LOT done. With just a few tweaks you can go from the former to the latter. While perfectionism is quite complicated, a useful simplification is to break it down i... |
63a7368a-7c75-4408-b28d-f220cf75e1bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conversation about whether LW Moderators should express individual opinions about mod policy - 2019/12/22
Copying over some comments from a different thread so as to continue the conversation here where it's not off-topic.
[Some relevant context: Speaking for myself (re: how the LW2.0 team communicates)]
-----------... |
130409ed-d75d-428c-a450-135e031d861f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | New safety research agenda: scalable agent alignment via reward modeling
Jan Leike and others from the DeepMind safety team have released a new[research agenda](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.07871) on reward learning:
"Ultimately, the goal of AI progress is to benefit humans by enabling us to address increasingly comple... |
5f77631e-da65-43ca-a55d-958631460515 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's up with Arbital?
This post is for all the people who have been following Arbital's progress since 2015 via whispers, rumors, and clairvoyant divination. That is to say: we didn't do a very good job of communicating on our part. I hope this posts corrects some of that.
The top question on your mind is probably:... |
6f190874-7962-4936-8bbd-8b02dae7560b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Duplicating Rasberry Pi Images
About a year ago I moved my rhythm stage setup over to run on a Raspberry Pi. I really like having a small light box that does just this one thing. Currently I have two of them, one for the whistle synth and one for everything else.
Because I wanted some insurance against failures at gi... |
129c754a-cd95-442b-9c97-9b5089df4518 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trading off Lives
Let's say someone proposes that to reduce deaths from overly chaotic airplane evacuations we ban passenger distractions during the most dangerous parts: takeoff and landing. How could we decide whether a ban like this would be worth it?
The argument for the ban is that the safe window for evacuating... |
e043748a-1ae6-4b96-8e27-837262a7f431 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What happens next?
Two years ago, I noted that we had clearly entered the era of general intelligence, but that it was "too soon" to expect widespread social impacts.
In the last 2 years, AI has gone from the green line to the orange line
In those 2 years, AI development has followed the best possible of the 3 paths ... |
163690f2-cc66-4a20-99b9-6e6dd37a131e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Being Moral is an end goal.
Alice wants to go to her best friends party. She has a sore throat, and she usually takes a COVID test when she has a sore throat. But if the test were to come out positive she would feel like she shouldn't go, and she really really wants to go. Solution - she avoids taking the test, leavin... |
f339ad17-8851-4dbe-9757-d7e1c531148c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | Adversarial Reprogramming of Neural Cellular Automata
### Contents
[Adversarial MNIST CAs](#adversarial-mnist-cas) |
[Adversarial Injections for Growing CAs](#adversarial-injections-for-growing-cas) |
[Perturbing the states of Growing CAs](#perturbing-the-states-of-growing-cas) |
[Related Work](#related-work)
[D... |
29307aef-5769-4056-bf07-621349891ae1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | College course on the Singularity
...taught by James Marshall of Sarah Lawrence College in New York: 'Is the Singularity Near?' His motivations for the course are outlined here. He got his Ph.D. studying under Hofstadter. |
1660194c-d0fc-4824-9068-fd70f0d63f35 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Functional Decision Theory: A New Theory of Instrumental Rationality
1 Overview
-----------
There is substantial disagreement about which of the two standard decision theories on offer is better: causal decision theory (CDT), or evidential decision theory (EDT). Measuring by utility achieved on average over time, C... |
a047ba97-50ae-4eca-9a61-83a33c8e3a89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Self-deception: Hypocrisy or Akrasia?
Today's post, Self-deception: Hypocrisy or Akrasia? was originally published on March 26, 2007. A summary (from the LW wiki):
> If part of a person—for example, the verbal module—says it wants to become more rational, we can ally with that part even when weakness of w... |
6325b75d-9e88-4a43-b46b-7e767f5503ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learn to write well BEFORE you have something worth saying
I’ve been reading a lot of trip reports lately. Trip reports are accounts people write about their experiences doing drugs, for the benefit of other people who might do those same drugs. I don’t take illegal drugs myself, but I like learning about other people... |
daed9cec-107e-47ca-b43d-de05258c86c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open problems in activation engineering
Steering GPT-2-XL by adding an activation vector introduced
> activation engineering... techniques which steer models by modifying their activations. As a complement to prompt engineering and finetuning, activation engineering is a low-overhead way to steer models at runtime.
... |
f9286d6b-2d4c-4f04-84d6-3f0446bd8f21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Self-supervised Visual Feature Learning with Deep Neural Networks: A Survey
1 Introduction
---------------
###
1.1 Motivation
Due to the powerful ability to learn different levels of general visual features, deep neural networks have been used as the basic structure to many computer vision applications such as ... |
de86d551-1611-42e9-9569-bff97a276a0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, April 27-May 4, 2014
You know the drill - If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
And, while this is an accidental exception, future open threads should start on Mondays until further notice. |
1e30065f-20ac-442d-a0e5-b72c5c5a13e9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Representation Learning with Contrastive Predictive Coding
1 Introduction
---------------
Learning high-level representations from labeled data with layered differentiable models in an end-to-end fashion is one of the biggest successes in artificial intelligence so far. These techniques made manually specified feat... |
476f6e42-07b7-403a-9490-c4e2d5b955ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Did any US politician react appropriately to COVID-19 early on?
Did any US politician call for quarantining, ventilator production, ICU capacity expansion, PPE stockpiling, or anything of that level of seriousness between January 1 and March 1? I'd like to know (a) so that I can take any such politician more seriously... |
6e5beb34-efe4-4d93-a3f0-3a6ff1b69d54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow social meetup: codename "Order of Infrared Viola"
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow social meetup: codename "Order of Infrared Viola"
WHEN: 14 December 2014 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, Strelbishensky pereulok, 10
Welcome to the experimental Social Chaotic meetup! It will be ex... |
958cf354-e77b-4687-9ff4-2776001f6c36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a scientific method? Physics, Biology and Beyond
Among the general public and, frequently, in the educated media, one comes across naïve and uncritical praise for the “scientific method”. Often, accusation of violating the “method” is wielded to denigrate the viewpoint of a political opponent who supposedly o... |
92a56a72-b1a7-4290-aec4-567ffebee332 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeing the Matrix, Switching Abstractions, and Missing Moods
Epistemic Status: Poetry, but also, True Story
For seven years, I worked in a supermarket bakery.
The bakery was quite a nice place to work. I got a good mix of physical exercise (everything I know about basketball I learned from tossing heavy boxes of bre... |
4a608813-f01d-4760-ae0d-860088bc34b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | ACI #3: The Origin of Goals and Utility
*Goal and Utility* are central ideas in [the rational agent approach](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/agent) of AI, in which the meaning of intelligence is to achieve goals or, more explicitly, to maximize expected utility.
What goal or utility function should an AI choose? This... |
0685f263-c8eb-4006-abf5-ceb6bac0a04e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Critical review of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky
This is a review of Paul Christiano's article "where I agree and disagree with Eliezer". Written for the LessWrong 2022 Review.
In the existential AI safety community, there is an ongoing debate between positions situated differently on some axis which does... |
5a1fea6f-7a55-4970-93df-9cfa31b77e46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can AI agents learn to be good?
Hi everyone!
My name is Ram Rachum and I'm working on AI Safety research. I want to elicit social behavior in RL agents and use it to achieve AI Safety goals such as alignment, interpretability and corrigibility.
I made a guest post on the Future of Life Institute's blog: https://futu... |
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