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b360ed2a-0ddc-4528-8c06-aff4008cc5f0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Modeling distant superintelligences
One of the things we almost certainly don't want our AI to do, unless we're *extremely* confident that it is *extremely* robust and value-aligned, is have it think about and try to model alien civilizations that might contain superintelligences or potential simulators. Among the po... |
73ee1fcd-777c-4b03-8295-4ab3cecd3539 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let's ask some of the largest LLMs for tips and ideas on how to take over the world
Intro:
Imagine you were an ASI. You were smarter and faster than any Human alive. And, you were immortal (you won't naturally die of "old age"). You could learn, grow, expand and experience the entire known Universe, for an eternity. ... |
28fb5616-3a74-4c29-9a4c-63b7023a9bc9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Replication] Conjecture's Sparse Coding in Toy Models
Summary
-------
In the post [Taking features out of superposition with sparse autoencoders](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z6QQJbtpkEAX3Aojj/interim-research-report-taking-features-out-of-superposition), Lee Sharkey, Beren Millidge and Dan Braun (formerly at Con... |
2b096358-b0bc-4917-82ae-1acecf5868cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is it rational to take psilocybin?
Is it rational to take psilocybin?
Just to make my definition of rational clear:
Rationality is only intelligible when in the context of a goal (whether that goal be rational or irrational). Now, if one acts rationally, given their information set, will chose the best plan-of-actio... |
51bbb564-4bbf-40f9-84c3-bc7d30a01b92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 12/22/22: Reevaluating Past Options
This is the non-China section of this week’s update. Despite there being essentially zero good statistical data about the real situation in China, things are clearly moving fast, and I have assembled what useful information I have been able to find. If cases are rising as quic... |
2d4c1b8b-fa62-407c-93d6-3d5ac3eaab1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Less Wrong singularity article?
Robin criticizes Eliezer for not having written up his arguments about the Singularity in a standard style and submitted them for publication. Others, too, make the same complaint: the arguments involved are covered over such a huge mountain of posts that it's impossible for most outs... |
e9438c66-6a4c-4d6b-a905-44d1e55e6b62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Play in Hard Mode
Epistemic Status: Love the player, love the game
Also consider: Playing on Easy Mode
Raymond Arnold asked me, why do you insist on playing in hard mode?
Hard mode is harder. The reason to Play in Hard Mode is because it is the only known way to become stronger, and to defend against Goodhart’s Law... |
ff30c02f-6698-48bf-8b34-a3ba8cfe6408 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Defense of Peer Review
This article by Dan Elton (moreisdifferent.blog) was published by Asimov Press.
> “I think peer review is, like democracy, bad, but better than anything else."
>
> — Timothy Bates, University of Edinburgh
I used to see peer review as primarily good — an important gatekeeping process, essent... |
fc5e9742-f607-4efd-844d-627e29f7f288 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | World, mind, and learnability: A note on the metaphysical structure of the cosmos [& LLMs]
*Cross-posted from* [*New Savanna*](https://new-savanna.blogspot.com/2020/08/world-mind-and-learnability-note-on.html).
There is no a priori reason to believe that world has to be learnable. But if it were not, then we wouldn’... |
996d0c12-8d6a-4e59-97e1-237c07d48427 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are these cognitive biases, biases?
Continuing my special report on people who don't think human reasoning is all that bad, I'll now briefly present some studies which claim that phenomena other researchers have considered signs of faulty reasoning aren't actually that. I found these from Gigerenzer (2004), which I in... |
b3df8556-bb2c-4f1e-a615-baeac6df1b1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Want to work on "strong AI" topic in my bachelor thesis
Hello,
I currently study maths, physics and programming (general course) on CVUT at Prague (CZE). I'm finishing second year and I'm really into AI. The most interesting questions for me are:
* what formalism to use for connecting epistemology questions (about... |
1d13b1cf-0188-4631-9846-63c637460aae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Accuracy of AI Predictions
*Updated 4 June 2015*
It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The main potentia... |
fe8ae980-a425-4e2c-b52b-08d401b90e9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Munchinkry meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Munchinkry meetup
WHEN: 12 May 2013 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA (courtyard)
Meet to talk about interesting lifehacky things!
(Credit to Maia for the idea for this one).
Di... |
fc870241-8aa2-4a74-9958-157a54387785 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison Monday Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Madison Monday Meetup
WHEN: 23 April 2012 06:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 1831 Monroe St., Madison, WI
Last week, we discussed the first half-or-so of the Human's Guide to Words, going so far as to brainstorm some methods and habits that'd be useful to le... |
021e6706-3733-4a99-b928-39175726bdc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Friendly AI at the NYC Future Salon
For those in the New York City area: I will be giving a talk on Friendly AI at the NYC Future Salon this Saturday, the 20th of February, at 3:00pm. We'll be gathering in the back room of Stone Creek Bar, located at 140 E. 27th Street in Manhattan.
At the moment, 29 people have RS... |
615e0569-27ba-4a3f-a472-17fca041f084 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AI research process as incipient superintelligence
EDIT: So this got upvotes while being a draft. Not sure what happened there, but it's now officially posted, even though it's incomplete. Won't be including it in the Guide for now, since the style clashes.
If I include it in the Guide I'll come back to this and ... |
0885175b-3eaa-45b9-839b-978bfe55c096 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Win/continue/lose scenarios and execute/replace/audit protocols
In this post, I’ll make a technical point that comes up when thinking about risks from scheming AIs from a control perspective.
In brief: Consider a deployment of an AI in a setting where it’s going to be given a sequence of tasks, and you’re worried abo... |
679c0f0d-4dfc-4662-8c59-a0ae92703720 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How the LW2.0 front page could be better at incentivizing good content
(This should probably be in meta, but I'm not sure how to post to meta. Feel free to move if needed.)
Imagine tomorrow someone writes the best ever LW2.0 post and everyone upvotes it. How can front page visitors read that best and newest post? The... |
7d664f3d-fcbb-4ede-a420-3d44c0bce552 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quick takes on "AI is easy to control"
A friend asked me for my quick takes on “AI is easy to control”, and gave an advance guess as to what my take would be. I only skimmed the article, rather than reading it in depth, but on that skim I produced the following:
> Re: "AIs are white boxes", there's a huge gap between... |
0b903690-c376-4c6c-b84d-2df45ce66df1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread - Aug 24 - Aug 30
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before... |
bca79607-9363-4ee6-a37e-203428368865 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | AMP: Adversarial Motion Priors for Stylized Physics-Based Character Control.
1. Introduction
----------------
Synthesizing natural and life-like motions for virtual characters is a crucial element for breathing life into immersive experiences, such as films and games. The demand for realistic motions becomes even m... |
42b553ea-eb98-4fe0-9eaa-99d518f910b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism
Today's post, Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism was originally published on 29 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Without a metric for comparison, estimates of, e.g., what sorts of punitive damages should be awarded, or when ... |
b2d33980-78f6-4abe-88bc-70652adc58ec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The US expands restrictions on AI exports to China. What are the x-risk effects?
Late last week, the Biden administration announced a new set of regulations that make it illegal for US companies to export a range of AI-related products and services to China (Financial Times coverage [here](https://www.ft.com/content/6... |
46a79294-52ad-4180-90c4-1f863b0b4d82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow meetup, creating community
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow meetup, creating community
WHEN: 26 May 2012 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Rossiya, Moscow, ulitsa Ostozhenka 14
We will meet at “Subway” restaurant, entrance from Lopukhinskiy pereulok. Look for a table with “LW” banner, I will be th... |
f416c9f6-a50a-4ca5-8051-df243a97c880 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can we prime people to take risk?
Cross-posted from The Metasophist.
----------------------------------------
A key contributor to stagnation could be a growing reluctance to take risk. All creation involves risk, because when embarking on the journey you rarely know the result. As Paul Graham said, you might fear c... |
42d33043-3614-47ec-b641-c9b37e1802b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A concern about the “evolutionary anchor” of Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines.
**tl;dr**: The report underestimates the amount of compute used by evolution because it only looks at what it would take to simulate neurons, rather... |
b94d2767-abfc-4199-916c-032043c89e0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Plan - 2022 Update
So, how’s The Plan going?
Pretty well!
In last year’s writeup of The Plan, I gave “better than a 50/50 chance” that it would work before AGI kills us all (and my median AI timelines were around 10-15 years). That was an outside view, accounting for planning fallacy and the inevitable negative s... |
dce1ffa4-1014-4cc4-834d-9b7b83fafd78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How useful would alien alignment research be?
Imagine aliens on a distant world. They have values very different to humans. However, they also have complicated values, and don't exactly know their own values.
Imagine these aliens are doing well at AI alignment. They are just about to boot up a friendly (to them) su... |
061f4c1d-1717-4209-b292-c2256acabc5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Decimal notation
Seventeen is the number that represents as many things as there are x marks at the end of this sentence: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Writing out numbers by saying "the number representing how many things there are in this pile:" gets unwieldy when the pile gets large. Thus, we _represent_ numbers using the [nu... |
133dc245-40f2-49c1-b8a2-a5269f504d22 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Did you ever wonder, when you were a kid, whether your inane "summer camp" actually had some kind of elaborate hidden purpose—say, it was all a science experiment and the "camp counselors" were really researchers observing your behavior?
Me neither.
But we'd have been more paranoid if we'd read Intergroup Conflict and... |
e0932f78-62b1-4a1c-b469-61d2870a4e42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Naturalism and AI alignment
Edit 1: Allergic to naturalism and other realist positions? You can still benefit from reading this, by considering ideal observer theory instead. I am claiming that something like an ideal-observer AI can be built, and that there is a non-trivial chance such an agent becomes aligned (after... |
e17abca2-d28d-4b5a-a035-a4c40729b273 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Happy Ada Lovelace Day
Today is Ada Lovelace Day, when STEM enthusiasts highlight the work of modern and historical women scientists, engineers, and mathematicians. If you run a blog, you may want to participate by posting about a woman in a STEM field whom you admire. But I'd love to have people share women scienti... |
d99ef50f-f16b-46a8-a82f-45e0cfbfc0b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | BIDA Election Thoughts
At this Sunday's dance BIDA will be holding its annual meeting, which means at the break there will paper ballots for voting on two things:
* Board: Who will run the organization for the next year?
* Bylaws: Three proposed changes to simplify elections.
Harris wrote up a blog post with a s... |
e0ce3651-81c8-45f7-8a43-0b72cccaf917 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Umbilical cord stem cell banking for future medical use
I had not heard of this until recently, and I doubt I am alone. I will quote from this source, which looks OK (there is also this).
What is the idea?
> [D]uring the 1970s, researchers discovered that umbilical cord blood could supply the same kinds of blood-for... |
9f08cc3c-5965-476e-b833-732b0c65f34d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Little Dragon is Dead
None |
1f90ef90-b450-4e6a-b79e-df66651067f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bogus Exam Questions
Take a look at this multiple choice question from the Open University BSc on psychology. Can you tell what is wrong with it. This is sampled from a set of 15 questions, some of the others aren't this bad, some are guessing the teachers password. One of the questions requires that you know that sta... |
6cf1ce8d-ce7b-42f5-b0e9-cab0ebc2c04f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Anchoring and Adjustment
Today's post, Anchoring and Adjustment was originally published on 07 September 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Exposure to numbers affects guesses on estimation problems by anchoring your mind to an given estimate, even if it's wildly off base. Be aware of the effe... |
cf2d9ba8-1340-4748-9d1d-3a88ecd637b4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Communication: magician example
Imagine that you and I are both magicians, performing a trick where I think of a card from a deck of cards and then leave the room, at which point you enter the room and have to guess which card I picked. To perform this trick, I leave some [https://arbital.com/p/3xd](https://arbital.co... |
083548a4-c07e-4e73-b733-9b50f6ea7aeb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Introducing Myself
Many friends of MIRI will know that I have been a supporter of its mission since its founding, and have rendered my informal assistance, including a major role in arranging matching funds for the Institute’s 2007 Challenge Grant.
I am pleased to take a more direct role in fostering its success as ... |
010e6019-5773-44ae-86a9-cdbf403b5964 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Peter Thiel backs "AI startup" [link]
http://venturebeat.com/2011/02/07/vicarious-systems-funding-facebook/ |
5dfb451d-4d53-4dc1-9aa8-12f89bb3a99d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore Area / UMBC Weekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore Area / UMBC Weekly Meetup
WHEN: 13 November 2016 08:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg Room 456, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250
Meeting is on 4th floor of the Performing Arts and Humanities Buil... |
580470f8-308b-4ef8-83d4-f6d20aea5bd0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introduction to Existential Risks from Artificial Intelligence, for an EA audience
Among the causes that Effective Altruists support, existential risk stands out as different from ordinary charitable concerns, and existential risk from Artificial Intelligence even more so.
In this talk, which assumes no prior knowled... |
4ffe5dcc-2c7f-4fe9-89fc-ce218708fe6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On GPT-4.5
It’s happening.
The question is, what is the it that is happening? An impressive progression of intelligence? An expensive, slow disappointment? Something else?
The evals we have available don’t help us that much here, even more than usual.
My tentative conclusion is it’s Secret Third Thing.
It’s a diff... |
3998361a-24f2-4fdd-b2f5-9e708fd47ec9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Types of generalism
[Cross-posted from here]
I am interested in the nature of inter- and transdisciplinary research, which often involves some notion of “generalism”. There are different ways to further conceptualize generalism in this context.
First, a bit of terminology that I will rely on throughout this post: I ... |
729f0fe2-7675-49da-b095-67b29e224320 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #141]: The case for practicing alignment work on GPT-3 and other large models
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look throu... |
d18dcbbf-30c1-47cc-8582-ecafdfbc4acb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Missing magic
Image by ArcheiaMuriel via Flickr
Many people believe they can fix the human body using magic of some sort. Many also claim to magically fix emotional or psychological problems or to fix other animals or even plants.
Yet there are many things nobody seems to claim they have magic to fix. Why is there n... |
de157d53-704f-4092-9907-5aa25481ef9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Check OK, babble-read, optimize (how I read textbooks)
A year ago, I didn't have any conscious ideas for how to read a textbook. I was frustrated by forgetting things, and had heard about memory palaces. When I was playing classical piano, I was able to memorize long complicated pieces of music with thousands of notes... |
3afe4456-3ae1-468f-b203-3a794e07fdb0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AMA: The new Open Philanthropy Technology Policy Fellowship
We will be answering questions about a new fellowship program run by Open Philanthropy, the [Technology Policy Fellowship](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/technology-policy-fellowship). We will begin answering questions in the... |
e02cc787-60d2-42dd-acc8-48f015d97b0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agents of No Moral Value: Constrained Cognition?
Thought experiments involving multiple agents usually postulate that the agents have no moral value, so that the explicitly specified payoff from the choice of actions can be considered in isolation, as both the sole reason and evaluation criterion for agents' decisions... |
b92ff09f-17d6-4984-bc0a-5b1fd26728da | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3750
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . After explaining riggable learning processes , we can now define influenceable (and uninfluenceable) learning processes. Recall that the (unriggable) influence problem is due to agents randomising their preferences, as a sort of artificial `learning' proces... |
84a99e61-2db7-4b5f-8b61-3f28d67e7288 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Las Vegas/Henderson, NV
Discussion article for the meetup : Las Vegas/Henderson, NV
WHEN: 30 May 2014 06:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 605 Mall Ring Cir. Henderson, NV 89014
Come say hi and meet fellow Reason enthusiasts! I'm not an active member of LW, but would like to get a feel for other Rationally-inspired in... |
da38cb26-904b-4387-9eec-864f3cf178e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the destruction of America’s best high school
This is a rare case when I think it's actually worth sharing an article that directly comments on the culture wars on Less Wrong:
> I’d like you to feel about the impending destruction of Virginia’s Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology, the same way ... |
58956aa8-38a7-4726-a233-219dc0a2513a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links digest, 2023-09-08: The Conservative Futurist, cargo airships, and more
Announcements
* The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised is available for pre-order (via @JimPethokoukis)
* Asimov Press is “an editorially-independent venture that will publish books and essays t... |
4d9048f1-f41c-4a44-98d9-dcade36324bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Miles Brundage resigned from OpenAI, and his AGI readiness team was disbanded
This is the full text of a post from "The Obsolete Newsletter," a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Ob... |
ab60c7ca-570a-49e6-ab10-7589747422f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vote on Anthropic Topics to Discuss
What important questions would you want to see discussed and debated here about Anthropic? Suggest and vote below.
(This is the third such poll, see the first and second linked.)
How to use the poll
1. Reacts: Click on the agree/disagree reacts to help people see how much disagr... |
9b32ecf8-e2c8-4f3b-8b01-9776567155ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI introduces function calling for GPT-4
OpenAI’s latest update unlocks function calling for GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 Turbo. This enables developers to "describe functions to gpt-4-0613 and gpt-3.5-turbo-0613, and have the model intelligently choose to output a JSON object containing arguments to call those functions." T... |
98136da2-50fe-4261-918e-7cd9a3adb1a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Saying the quiet part out loud: trading off x-risk for personal immortality
***Statement:*** *I want to deliberately balance the caution and the recklessness in developing AGI, such that it gets created in the last possible moment so that I and my close ones do not die.*
This Statement confuses me. There are several... |
5762453f-d136-40e5-afad-bfdf03fd96bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agents with Cartesian childhood and Physicalist adulthood
Followup to: Updateless intelligence metrics in the multiverse
In the previous post I explained how to define a quantity that I called "the intelligence metric" which allows comparing intelligence of programs written for a given hardware. It is a development o... |
bbd0b367-ee9a-41df-807e-0c3e3fdb3dc5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can any LLM be represented as an Equation?
Can an arbitrary LLM (or LxM) be presented in the form of an equation? I realised it would need to be some crazy big equation with billions of parameters, but is it theoretically possible? The way I see it, the weights are static once the model is trained so why not |
9cfd862b-8e5b-4e23-b0d7-a4c15d1e1ea1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help with a derivation in chapter 18 of Jaynes PT:LoS?
Hi, I've spent like two hours trying to derive 18.11 from 18.10. Can anyone who's read it help me?
If you comment or message me I can send you my gmail for gchat or we can work out something else. |
a6a4e9d3-23dc-455f-86cc-6c8e3ebd492f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The ethics of breeding to kill
Veganism, vegetarianism, and "ethical" farming seem to be gaining a lot of ground lately, which is something I find fascinatingly absurd.
In part, I think this comes from a felicitous style of reasoning that I outlined here.
But, in hindsight, I think a lot of people that consume meat ... |
f93730e5-de87-4b32-a900-8dcadde6e08d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | EfficientZero: How It Works
The goal of this essay is to help you understand [EfficientZero](https://github.com/YeWR/EfficientZero), a reinforcement learning agent that obtains better-than-human median performance on a set of 26 Atari games after just two hours of real-time experience playing each game.
Specifically... |
58771bff-4c7f-464e-bdcf-8f8236877eb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [POLL RESULTS] LessWrong Members and their Local Communities
The results for these have been stable for a while now; I'm posting them a bit late. 95 people took the survey after I modified it to add two questions. For the public version, I removed the pre-change data (10 data points).
One text response included ident... |
5bc7df4f-3f8b-4e17-9944-534466202436 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fuck Your Miracle Year
Dwarkesh Patel’s essay “The Mystery of the Miracle Year” just went COVID-19-level viral (woah, too soon). Fucking Jeff Bezos read the article at tweeted at him (and Marc Andreessen and Paul Graham).
I’ve appeared on Dwarkesh’s podcast and he has given me feedback on some of my writing before. I... |
af29a028-c98d-4b6d-aa3e-9c41e028765e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | How Different Groups Prioritize Ethical Values for Responsible AI
1. Introduction
----------------
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to benefit people and society, but they also raise ethical challenges and concerns about possible adverse impacts (Montreal, [2017](#bib.bib53)). Being prone... |
4ab9befb-3adb-4e23-995e-6ccb4ae75cae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: New clinical trial will try to restore dead brains
"... in an effort to revive the brains of those being kept alive solely through life support. Stem cells will be injected directly into the brain..."
More at:
http://news.discovery.com/tech/biotechnology/dead-could-be-brought-back-to-life-in-medical-trial-1605... |
719ea70f-96da-45a3-bc44-c022b3f9470b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Helping your Senator Prepare for the Upcoming Sam Altman Hearing
Hello Everyone,
Next Tuesday, the US Senate will hold a hearing on AI (https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/committee-activity/hearings/oversight-of-ai-rules-for-artificial-intelligence). OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will testify before Congress for the first time... |
16833320-f583-4507-b161-46679a6404c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uncritical Supercriticality
Every now and then, you see people arguing over whether atheism is a “religion.” As I touch on elsewhere, in “Purpose and Pragmatism,” arguing over the meaning of a word nearly always means that you’ve lost track of the original question.1 How might this argument arise to begin with?
An at... |
1107e633-182d-4f55-8b7f-9de8c1694f03 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Will transparency help catch deception? Perhaps not
In the last few months, some AI safety researchers have signaled what Wei Dai [called](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pFAavCTW56iTsYkvR/ai-alignment-open-thread-october-2019#9sy6DdZx7tSSFYXcg) a "wave of optimism" for using transparency tools to catch deceptive... |
e0f023b2-55d7-4caa-8948-e74b96058138 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What sorts of preparations ought I do in case of further escalation in Ukraine?
I guess the Russian invasion of Ukraine can go in many ways. It might just fizzle out, or continue to be a fairly conventional war with extent limited to Ukraine, or it might escalate with a Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine followed ... |
16b26dbf-dc7c-4e53-b9ff-86fd77ccc8c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New paper: “Toward negotiable reinforcement learning”
[](https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.01302)MIRI Research Fellow Andrew Critch has developed a new result in the theory of conflict resolution, described in “[**Toward negotiable r... |
4354c483-6c0f-4281-ab41-7e5f20c3d32f | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I blew through all of MoR in about 48 hours, and in an attempt to learn more about the science and philosophy that Harry espouses, I've been reading the sequences and Eliezer's posts on Less Wrong. Eliezer has written extensively about AI, rationality, quantum physics, singularity research, etc. I have a question: how... |
6d390560-44ac-4ca0-ac73-62d5250d0055 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logan Strohl on exercise norms
(cw: exercise, shame)
(also relevant: Shame Processing)
Logan Strohl said some things about exercise (and shame, and aspiring to be better) on Facebook today that I found interesting. Minus some mostly-irrelevant parts:
> [...] I definitely wasn't trying to kick people who struggle wi... |
ea5b84da-4758-45eb-8051-6393eb7436ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beyond Gaussian: Language Model Representations and Distributions
In January 2023, beren and Eric Winsor cataloged basic distributional properties of weights, activations, and gradients in GPT-2 models, providing a systematic view of model internals (thanks to Ryan Greenblatt for the pointer). This post extends their ... |
1b85a01a-0754-47e0-a04f-11a7c2a1b0e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Duct Tape security
This is a linkpost for On Duct Tape and Fence Posts.
Eliezer writes about fence post security. When people think to themselves "in the current system, what's the weakest point?", and then dedicate their resources to shoring up the defenses at that point, not realizing that after the first small imp... |
efe1e285-ed9a-4b3e-8ae0-b0d6a95ee6a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Far & Near / Runaway Trolleys / The Proximity Of (Fat) Strangers
I went to the Royal Institute last week to hear the laconic and dismissive Dr Guy Kahane on whether we are 'Biologically Moral'
[His message: Neurological evidence suggests - somewhat alarmingly - that our moral and ethical decisions may be no more tha... |
e5c2d15d-168f-4681-b1ed-26c14564c7ee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #112]: Engineering a Safer World
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.c... |
eceb221e-3043-4eda-bdbf-fdbaafe4a6b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Studying The Alien Mind
This post is part of a sequence on LLM psychology
TL;DR
We introduce our perspective on a top-down approach for exploring the cognition of LLMs by studying their behavior, which we refer to as LLM psychology. In this post we take the mental stance of treating LLMs as “alien minds,” comparin... |
e4579e5e-9332-4247-9e9c-734b462c3f4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discussion: How scientifically sound are MBAs?
I'm finishing up the first year of my distance-learning MBA, which has been a very confusing experience.
I went into the course partially as insurance against "unknown unknowns", i.e., lacking concepts important to building or running a business because I didn't know abo... |
9a74a53c-ca81-4429-88b8-0633e3670b47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interesting talk on Bayesians and frequentists
I recently started watching an interesting lecture by Michael Jordan on Bayesians and frequentists; he's a pretty successful machine learning expert that takes both views in his work. You can watch it here: http://videolectures.net/mlss09uk_jordan_bfway/. I found it inter... |
4e098963-af86-4f17-8c16-e62d95fb3034 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Society Is Fixed, Biology Is Mutable
Today during an otherwise terrible lecture on ADHD I realized something important we get sort of backwards.
There’s this stereotype that the Left believes that human characteristics are socially determined, and therefore mutable. And social problems are easy to fix, through things... |
79f9e67a-0d69-4478-951b-3fb6139d44b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hypotheses about Finding Knowledge and One-Shot Causal Entanglements
Epistemic status: my own thoughts I've thought up in my own time. They may be quite or very wrong! I am likely not the first person to come to these ideas. All of my main points here are just hypotheses which I've come to by the reasoning stated belo... |
bb05d4aa-8b52-4e73-b3a0-45488784a5ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Number 1 Epistemology Book Recommendation: Inventing Temperature
In my last post, I wrote that no resource out there exactly captured my model of epistemology, which is why I wanted to share a half-baked version of it.
But I do have one book which I always recommend to people who want to learn more about epistemol... |
40d79c2e-0879-4430-8ffc-839dfea4da4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Refactoring EMH – Thoughts following the latest market crash
In a twitter thread, Eliezer Yudkowsky challenges the belief in EMH due to the seemingly illogical behavior of the markets with respect to the COVID-19. In the replies, Robin Hanson asks the obvious question: “what exactly is your better theory?”
I've been ... |
605172b3-d880-44d6-9f4b-2dfc0017498c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some work on connecting UDT and Reinforcement Learning
|
7ca2cd68-d073-480a-b853-86ab7adf2c0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Objective Dog Ratings: The Shiba Inu
The Shiba Inu
Shibas are a spitz dog, which, if you remember from the original Dog Ratings post, is my projected winner for the All-Dog All-Stars Contest, but that doesn't mean that this spitz will take the trophy home.
Let's take a look:
First, it must be noted that shibas h... |
da51c8ef-4021-4160-86f7-8e1b7ff4faca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | STRUCTURE: A Hazardous Guide to Words
This post is part of my Hazardous Guide To Rationality. I don't expect this to be new or exciting to frequent LW people, and I would super appreciate comments and feedback in light of intents for the sequence, as outlined in the above link. Also, note this is a STRUCTURE post, aga... |
8ce7ce0b-d194-40e8-9a6e-0f69689f327c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 9 Examples of Specification Gaming
hi when talking about AI safety people
often talk about the legend of King
Midas you've probably heard this one
before Midas is an ancient king who
values above all else wealth and money
and so when he's given an opportunity to
make a wish he wishes that everything he
touches would t... |
c3c36189-e632-4ff0-8c58-a225913bb0dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [CKC] [May 2018] What subjects are most important for an AI safety researcher to know? (Open Call)
[CKC]: I intend this to be a Community Knowledge Convergence project - that is to say, I do not think I am particularly well informed on the subject, and I think there's a lot to be gained from compiling an understanding... |
92380885-a329-4442-9807-2c4ff1c2b001 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Typical Mind and Politics
Yesterday, in the The Terrible, Horrible, No Good Truth About Morality, Roko mentioned some good evidence that we develop an opinion first based on intuitions, and only later look for rational justifications. For example, people would claim incest was wrong because of worries like genetic def... |
adde5125-388d-4b8d-bea7-fe1b4a3f03a1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI Safety Reading Group (Session 43)
hello and welcome to the 43rd session of
the arca de icse reading group today
I'll present that the blog post strong
AI isn't here yet by Sarah Constantine
Sarek Rasmussen is a PhD from Yale in
mathematics and as a block called
auction where she's written this article
and that stro... |
d80785a8-be34-4560-b703-96b6652b1d0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Brief Excursion Into Molecular Neuroscience
TL;DR: Poking fun at complicated nomenclature (p̴͓̂͘á̴̻͌s̶̻̗͋͑ṯ̸̹̈́̌à̶̳), identifying a pretty important signaling factor in the brain, and arbitrating (part of) the Guzey/Mendonça debate.
Previously in this series: How to build a mind - neuroscience edition.
The Empe... |
12d03819-2f42-4654-a8aa-34a89394920d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is your true decision metric? A look at medicinal chemists
http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2012/11/27/how_do_chemist_think_that_they_judge_compounds.php
Some background: medicinal chemists are responsible for identifying drug candidates, usually by screening large (10^6) libraries of combinatorially genera... |
9ab74952-9d57-4eae-abc5-05729e69c0b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mediation From a Distance
Suppose we have an electronic circuit with two pieces: combinational logic and memory. The combinational logic is designed to behave as memoryless input/output logic gates - it has only short-term state, and computes some function. The memory reads the output of the combinational logic once p... |
1a8d6f4c-5a33-4f95-8b40-7317dbe5f890 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Historic trends in flight airspeed records
Flight airspeed records between 1903 and 1976 contained one greater than 10-year discontinuity: a 19-year discontinuity corresponding to the Fairey Delta 2 flight in 1956.
The average annual growth in flight airspeed markedly increased with the Fairey Delta 2, from 16mph/ye... |
486b800c-6c39-486e-ac2e-8e4ca8fa3a68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For and Against Lotteries in Elite University Admissions
People (whose names often rhyme with Palcolm Sadwell) sometimes suggest replacing the admissions systems of highly selective universities with lotteries. The proposal is that universities would mark a pool of students as ‘good enough’ and then students from that... |
39f5e198-286e-4e0d-b4b8-e6c24db317b3 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1328
Several of the ideas in this post originated in conversations between the authors months ago. I did the work involved in exploring them and thinking of new ideas and framings, as well as writing this post; old writings by Janus were the inspiration for some of the directions of thought here. Thanks to Ada... |
03c66bf4-b8e3-4875-8fe2-bda1ba94df48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Initial Thoughts on Personally Finding a High-Impact Career
As I mentioned in my strategic plan, I have 10 months and 28 days until I graduate from Denison University and hopefully will be transitioning to a career. Careers are important because having one will not only mean that I won't starve, but that I'll have an... |
7ab30b7e-8741-498c-8d3c-9edb81e45a84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge (MA) third-Sundays Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge (MA) third-Sundays Meetup
WHEN: 21 October 2012 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 25 Ames St, Cambridge, MA 02139
Cambridge/Boston-area Less Wrong meetups on the first and third Sunday of every month, 2pm at the MIT Landau Building [... |
4beb4982-4a2b-4077-954f-4cf0d0515471 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I've updated towards AI boxing being surprisingly easy
Specifically because I think that sandboxes like an improved WASM could make it such that conditioned on careful data curation, that side channels have 0 probability to give the AI any information outside of what we give it.
I.e I would predict 0 probability of... |
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