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ba96b202-40b6-4d80-8038-8825a7911270 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Critique of Superintelligence Part 2
This is part 2 of a 5-part sequence:
[Part 1: summary of Bostrom's argument](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/A8ndMGC4FTQq46RRX/criqitue-of-superintelligence-part-1)
[Part 2: arguments against a fast takeoff](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BGWmAqrk64q2w6JjM/cr... |
d1c2de67-7f79-422c-b91d-8c9afde6af8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misconceptions about continuous takeoff
There has been considerable debate over whether development in AI will experience a discontinuity, or whether it will follow a more continuous growth curve. Given the lack of consensus and the confusing, diverse terminology, it is natural to hypothesize that much of the debate i... |
05ee77ca-898e-4b7e-ab98-81487a0a0630 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Robustness via curvature regularization, and vice versa
1 Introduction
---------------
Adversarial training has recently been shown to be one of the most successful methods for increasing the robustness to adversarial perturbations of deep neural networks [[10](#bib.bib10), [18](#bib.bib18), [17](#bib.bib17)]. This... |
611b9b23-8009-434b-8b47-0a1142de19b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Short Remark on the (subjective) mathematical 'naturalness' of the Nanda--Lieberum addition modulo 113 algorithm
These remarks are basically me just wanting to get my thoughts down after a Twitter exchange on this subject. I've not spent much time on this post and it's certainly plausible that I've gotten things wrong... |
ae0d40c6-539a-44e0-8d27-ab201738b4f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Writing to think
There are a lot of things that I want to write blog posts about. I find myself feeling like I have something useful to say about a topic, and I want to say it. But when I actually sit down to get started, I run into problems.
* Sometimes I don't know how to explain what I want to say.
* Sometimes -... |
f2f9c08d-8bf4-4fb2-b32a-afe28ddfd1e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value of Information: 8 examples
ciphergoth just asked what the actual value of Quantified Self/self-experimentation is. This finally tempted me into running value of information calculations on my own experiments. It took me all afternoon because it turned out I didn’t actually understand how to do it and I had a har... |
d8555848-0298-430b-ac85-5005211e3c6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality & Criminal Law: Some Questions
The following will explore a couple of areas in which I feel that the criminal justice system of many Western countries might be deficient, from the standpoint of rationality. I am very much interested to know your thoughts on these and other questions of the law, as far as t... |
8b90a119-ad70-487c-b670-f7d8abc8633d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | This anime storyboard doesn't exist: a graphic novel written and illustrated by GPT4
Six months ago, GPT4 wrote the first known AI-written novella, "[*The Troodon Quill*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7AxzaEDP8WWjEouSA/gpt4-is-capable-of-writing-decent-long-form-science-fiction-1)".
With the recent release of DALL... |
4d9cbc71-9743-44db-bff0-db21af31797a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Octopath Traveler: Spoiler-Free Review
Epistemic Status: Full Play Through, extensive experience with similar games
Previous Spoiler-Free Review: Persona 5: Spoiler-Free Review
Soon I hope to write Against Spoilers, which will detail how hard it is to actually provide useful information in a true spoiler-free way.
... |
0350103d-196a-4a5b-8b73-009f223dd64d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Infra-Bayesian physicalism: proofs part I
*This post is an appendix to "[Infra-Bayesian physicalism: a formal theory of naturalized induction](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/gHgs2e2J5azvGFatb/infra-bayesian-physicalism-a-formal-theory-of-naturalized)".*
**Lemma 1:** *prΓ×Φ(χy∈α(s∗(θ)))∈Θ.mjx-chtml {display: in... |
bcce2832-dfdd-47b2-ad89-215554414158 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blog Post Day II
TL;DR: You are invited to join us online on Saturday the 28th of March, to write that blog post you've been thinking about writing but never got around to. This is the second event of this type; the first one went well. Please comment if you are thinking about joining so I can gauge interest.
The Pr... |
b858dd75-2bad-4773-a71b-d12ad24db0e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Apprentice Thread
A while back, LessWrong poster Aysajan put up a post asking to be someone’s apprentice. He talked about it with johnswentworth, who I recently confirmed via meeting him in person is awesome and does reliably interesting work, and an apprentice experiment was born.
As John says, you gotta admire... |
1b884748-debe-44a5-bbba-e91dc1790f39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Homomorphic encryption and Bitcoin
BitCoin is a recently introduced currency, based on public-key cryptography combined with a peer-to-peer network for verifying transactions. I've been thinking a lot about BitCoin recently, and particularly about BitCoin's main weakness: if your computer is compromised, an attacker c... |
2f98d849-1ddf-4a6a-9207-2823ce25f6c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Allegory of the Tsunami
Cross posted from my blog.
What do we do when cataclysmic change looms on the horizon?
The year is 79 and Vesuvius is trembling.
The year is 2020 and a novel virus is discovered in Wuhan, China.
The year is 2025 and a tsunami rises up over the distant horizon, shuttering the rising sun.
It... |
ff831f07-78d4-4d69-92c2-bc124111006a | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3820
(the ideas in this post came out of a conversation with Scott, Critch, Ryan, and Tsvi, plus a separate conversation with Paul) Consider the problem of optimization daemons . I argued previously that daemons shouldn't be a problem for idealized agents, since idealized agents can just update on the logical... |
ef6a9e8d-493d-4e0b-a498-8befde675db8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Sino-Western cooperation in AI safety | Brian Tse | EA Global: San Francisco 2019
our next speaker is Brian say he is a
policy affiliate with the Center for the
governance of AI at the University of
Oxford he's also a senior advisor at the
partnership on AI and the author of the
Chinese translation of the open AI
char... |
0192c236-7994-434a-9037-16f051aa63df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deploy Test
More Testing... |
8203f18a-df7e-4a12-8d16-c647bf4efa35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Satire of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology's publication bias
Follow-up to: Follow-up on ESP study: "We don't publish replications", Using degrees of freedom to change the past for fun and profit
As I discussed in the above posts, the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, a leading psych journal,... |
115fc013-bfa1-4e05-b6e1-65f87fefcc2d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Weak identifiability and its consequences in strategic settings
Weak identifiability and its consequences in strategic settings
===============================================================
13 February 2021
by [Jesse Clifton](https://longtermrisk.org/author/jesse-clifton/ "Posts by Jesse Clifton")
One way that a... |
28e321f5-b057-45df-8b89-07edf5c25b05 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Related and required reading in life (ANOIEAEIB): The Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethics
Epistemic Status: Trying to be minimally judgmental
Spoiler Alert: Contains minor mostly harmless spoiler for The Good Place, which is the best show currently on television.
The Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethics (in parallel wi... |
529609b7-eb9c-4b2b-bb81-50303aebe28b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research Assistant positions at the Future of Humanity Institute and Centre for Effective Altruism
Both the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) at the University of Oxford, and the Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA), are advertising for research assistant positions for Toby Ord as he writes a book on Existential Risk.... |
41f19180-cc90-4687-bd35-f685e4c17de6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cap Model Size for AI Safety
There are diminishing marginal returns to intelligence -- an AI with an IQ of 150 can perform almost all human tasks flawlessly. The only exception may be conducting scientific research.
So why don't we lobby for capping the model size, at perhaps, a couple hundred billion parameters? Th... |
02ea8d61-f27d-45d3-ba29-e744ebcfd0ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Worrying about the Vase: Whitelisting
> Suppose a designer wants an RL agent to achieve some goal, like moving a box from one side of a room to the other. Sometimes the most effective way to achieve the goal involves doing something unrelated and destructive to the rest of the environment, like knocking over a vase of... |
d43f4c88-6c33-4a6f-b319-cc6e0990dbc8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A response to Conjecture's CoEm proposal
The following is written based on what was shared in [the CoEm announcement previously posted here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ngEvKav9w57XrGQnb/cognitive-emulation-a-naive-ai-safety-proposal) and also discussed in depth by Connor in [a recent YouTube interview with the Fu... |
00c74ada-b319-4527-8300-0da88d12aa3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Less Wrong Spb [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequently ... |
b1167e52-47af-4193-8aa9-b00e9b076ab6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI and Planet Earth are incompatible.
Intelligence will always seek more data in order to make better decisions. AI's need for energy and data processing will be infinite. But Planet Earth is a horrible place on which to build such infrastructure.
There is too much water for which AI has no use, and weather adds to c... |
c46e0ad3-7873-459d-823d-0c1b693c9655 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Teacher-student curriculum learning for reinforcement learning
### Declaration of Originality
I hereby declare that the written work I have submitted entitled
Teacher-student curriculum learning for reinforcement learning
is original work which I alone have authored and which is written in my own words.
... |
b6d3372d-cb12-4189-8a16-3e198c95a062 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sentience, Sapience, Consciousness & Self-Awareness: Defining Complex Terms
The terms in the title are commonly used in crucial debates surrounding morality & AI. Yet, I feel like there is no clear consensus about the meaning of those terms. The words are often used interchangeably, causing people to think they are al... |
f62fd008-cc66-4737-829d-15011eb1db8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What i learned giving a lecture on NVC
Recently, I gave a lecture on Nonviolent Communication (NVC) at a democratic school in Israel, the attendees (or at least the active ones), were mostly 11-12 year old girls, and a teacher.
The first thing i found was a potentially good lecture structure (which I'll talk about a ... |
047437bf-9df5-49aa-a488-db20c885e038 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Have Been Your Most Valuable Casual Conversations At Conferences?
I've heard repeatedly from many people that the highest-value part of conferences is not the talks or structured events, but rather the casual spontaneous conversations. Yet my own experience does not match this at all; the casual spontaneous conve... |
877bb116-d2de-4f75-a89a-0fc52f2bf09c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 6
"It's in the Mirror of Atlantis," Harry said.
"We need Gillyweed," said Luna, "Lots of Gillyweed."
"The Mirror of Atlantis is located at the end of the third-floor corridor on the right-hand side," said Harry.
"What are you waiting for?" said Luna.
"You're not goin... |
03409146-3f7c-462a-833e-c5fa309779c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards a Science of Evals for Sycophancy
This work was conducted as my final project for the AI Safety Fundamentals course. Due to time constraints, certain choices were made to simplify some aspects of this research.
Intro
Sycophancy, the tendency to agree with someone’s opinions, is a well-documented issue in lar... |
38a3740e-8ffd-49e5-ab8e-27b376b2a590 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Postmortem on my Comment Challenge
On the 11th of November, I challenged myself to comment every frontpage post for the rest of November. The result? Well, I failed a lot. But I also commented far more than I usually did. And I think from both my successes and my failures, I found some nuggets interesting enough to sh... |
68079fbc-a589-4a2c-a24a-7504fe24f0a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adversarial Training with Voronoi Constraints.
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep learning at scale has led to breakthroughs on important problems
in computer vision (Krizhevsky et al. ([2012](#bib.bib24))), natural language processing (Wu et al. ([2016](#bib.bib41))),
and robotics (Levine et al. ([2015](#bib.bib2... |
5882b92d-2dd3-47f4-8b47-20b27c8c2aea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bernal Heights: acquisition of a bicycle
The measure of a good bicycle, according to me, is that you can’t ride it without opening your mouth in joy and occasionally exclaiming things like ‘fuck yeah bicycle’. This is an idiosyncratic spec, and I had no reason to think that it might be fulfilled by any electric bicycl... |
00d7a28a-bc40-4a45-a469-c42dedfec537 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | reflections on lockdown, two years out
Two years ago today, I wrote about having been in hardcore lockdown for an entire year. At the time, I wrote that vaccination seemed like an impossible dream. Now, it's lockdown that feels like a fever dream. I still occasionally turn to a friend and say "Can you fucking believe ... |
369972d7-fa1d-49d7-9ca9-eef290409649 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Applying simulacrum levels to hobbies, interests and goals
One of the things I've been very confused by for most of my life is why it seems like few people truly care about the things they say they like. That is, they don't spend their spare time thinking about it; they don't read Wikipedia about it, let alone subredd... |
fe0eba2a-4979-48cb-9206-796635b6151a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open AI: Can we rule out near-term AGI?
Spoilers: they don't think it can be ruled out. |
693648b8-979b-4744-90a6-40485dfdf971 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Clarifying Factored Cognition
This post is sort of an intermediate between parts 1 and 2 of the sequence. It makes three points that I think people tend to get wrong.
1. Factored Cognition is about reducing hard problems to human judgment to achieve outer alignment.
==================================================... |
82361554-e2e8-4b93-b7fd-8a357922b6c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What will GPT-2030 look like?
GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. Surprises in machine learning are not restricted to GPT-4: I was [previously surprised](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/) by Minerva’s mathematica... |
f3904057-8390-40e6-95df-5de626050750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Excessive EDA Effortposting
Introduction and motivation
Science! It’s important. It’s also difficult, largely because of how easily people fool themselves. I’ve seen plenty of people (my younger self included!) lose the plot as they attempt their first few investigations, letting subtle methodological problems render... |
3d117226-4c1c-4d1a-9690-ac77e5d551ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You can just play
I don’t think there are many shoulds in how to live life— because who knows, really?
But if there’s one should, it’s this: radically live how you want to. Whatever that means to you. It sounds obvious, yet almost no one actually does it. Most haven’t even thought deeply about why and how they want ... |
86601507-4d62-420f-a77a-efd6fdc7356a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pronunciations
The Problem[1]
As part of my work I have to pronounce a lot of names and other uncommon/specialized words. More often than not this turns out to be hard.
This is quite time-consuming because of things like:
* People trimming off or omitting introductions from speeches, TED talks, podcasts etc.
* The... |
51f14177-6ed8-4324-b837-3b5710bcfd32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI will result from an ecosystem not a single firm
Common to many models of AGI development is the view that AGI (and a possible artificial superintelligence) is developed by a single firm, with decision making power centralised in a small number of stakeholders. We argue here that this view is misleading even in sce... |
030517b2-14e0-42f1-98cb-e41b1aabec0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moral Mazes and Short Termism
Previously: Short Termism and Quotes from Moral Mazes
Epistemic Status: Long term
My list of quotes from moral mazes has a section of twenty devoted to short term thinking. It fits with, and gives internal gears and color to, my previous understanding of of the problem of short termism.... |
3f782bbf-5a9a-4f32-a708-b9a89d84f0a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Equality Really about Diminishing Marginal Utility?
In Robert Nozick's famous "Utility Monster" thought experiment he proposes the idea of a creature that does not receive diminishing marginal utility from resource consumption, and argues that this poses a problem for utilitarian ethics. Why? Utilitarian ethics, ... |
d76ee394-a242-417c-a59f-b083a0ed5ece | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two Definitions of Generalization
Epistemic Status: Research notes, plus an appeal for the reader to give their best attempt.
The words “abstraction” and “generalization” are often used fairly interchangeably. This is a pity. We only have so many well known words for abstract concepts.
One distinction I like is the ... |
3cac5076-1f6c-4ae4-adca-0b585b8bf355 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can cryonically-frozen people *really* expect to be revived?
NOTE: I have no clue why some of the spaces are "screwy" - the formatting is totally fine when I was typing this post out.
===
I think it's a pretty MAJOR assumption that wealth can *really* transfer over numerous generations.
Say this: say 1 million people ... |
fe89f23b-47a0-4f3e-8cc2-950f5af90e6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does Summarization Affect LLM Performance?
Edit 4/2/25: Added footnotes; I didn't realize they got lost en-route.
Hello! This is a mini-project that I carried out to get a better sense of ML engineering research. The question itself is trivial, but it was useful to walk through every step of the process by myself. I ... |
1d6dbe4c-d9a3-4444-bc36-70cc69835d3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | .
. |
40d7e311-99f2-4526-8db4-65eac3320c2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to enjoy fail attempts without self-deception (technique)
this is a technique from my future book on applied rationality. write comments to influence its content and correct something
ratio-technique: gamification of failures
epistemic status: worked for me on those tasks where there was systematic irritation. n... |
84305321-e0c6-4b6a-aa88-754dd4b2538e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Austin, Berkeley, Bielefield, Cambridge MA, Chicago, Durham NC (2), Urbana-Champaign, Washington DC
This summary was posted to LW main on October 5th, and has now been moved to discussion. The more recent summary is here.
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* (Durham N... |
65e2954b-2d2a-47da-92cb-1b039a7b941c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Highlights from the Deep Learning Summer School
A few weeks ago, Janos and I attended the Deep Learning Summer School at the University of Montreal. Various well-known researchers covered topics related to deep le... |
df511721-f8f2-4fc9-95d5-d5f78e1dcb83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lifelogging for Alignment & Immortality
Summary: The collection of a massive first-person video dataset for use in large model pretraining is technologically & economically feasible with modest resources. Such a dataset might enable high-fidelity imitation of human behavior, with positive implications for the capabili... |
5150576a-b335-4192-9d43-5a021603f487 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | An introductory guide to modern logic
Welcome! We are about to start a journey through modern logic, in which we will visit two central results of this branch of mathematics, which are often misunderstood and sometimes even misquoted: [Löb's theorem](https://arbital.com/p/) and [Gödel's second incompleteness theorem](... |
2908135d-9d4a-4e61-89ce-b0eaee28855a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | “Endgame safety” for AGI
*(Status: no pretense to originality, but a couple people said they found this terminology useful, so I’m sharing it more widely.)*
**There’s a category of AGI safety work that we might call** ***“Endgame Safety”*****, where we’re trying to do all the AGI safety work that we couldn’t or didn’... |
dede8311-252d-4fa7-85d1-60003dcdded2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How toy models of ontology changes can be misleading
Before solving complicated problems (such as reaching a decision with thousands of variables and complicated dependencies) it helps to focus on solving simpler problems first (such as utility problems with three clear choices), and then gradually building up. After ... |
fe817f91-86d1-4120-9c97-3f251e49a1b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A new place to discuss cognitive science, ethics and human alignment
One could frame EA as the project of human alignment - of deconfusing ourselves about what we care about and figuring out how to actualize it. And there seems to be an interconnected bundle of problems at the core of this project:
* What should we ... |
602b6cd2-dc9c-4966-b56f-0359e58a9d0e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Nature < Nurture for AIs
This is a cross-link for [https://scottviteri.github.io/post/nature-v-nurture-for-ais.](https://scottviteri.github.io/post/nature-v-nurture-for-ais)
Let's imagine a hypothetical scenario where an AI is somehow trained in a way that is analogous to a human childhood in all of the relevant ways... |
a5d7ea14-7a7c-4b1d-80a0-91fde3b310dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: "A Thousand Brains" by Jeff Hawkins
Jeff Hawkins gets full credit for getting me first interested in the idea that neuroscience might lead to artificial general intelligence—an idea which gradually turned into an all-consuming hobby, and more recently a new job. I'm not alone in finding him inspiring. And... |
ad102ff9-91bd-46bb-972a-3c4e67ae604a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What does pulling the fire alarm look like?
I am not quite ready to pull my own personal fire alarm. The word 'quite' is doing a lot of lifting in that sentence. Because a fire is starting to feel like a real possibility in my future, I've begun to think about what pulling the fire alarm would actually mean. What woul... |
c3931204-0cb1-48ad-a861-9af5d5279581 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Calculus of Newcomb's Problem
In the [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QYty8zvtPxMrYAyCs/the-calculus-of-nash-equilibria), we applied some calculus to game theoretic problems. Let's now look at the famous Newcomb's problem, and how we can use calculus to find a solution.
Newcomb's problem
==========... |
7b0aefe5-8e9b-461f-93be-bd7a8661d45f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the current process for increases testing?
I was just thinking about the current state of things in the USA and realize I don't really have any clue about just how the increased testing is getting done.
Part of the reason I was musing about this was the idea of doing testing a bit like intoxication stops on r... |
4cf4c30e-a8bb-41c3-b7c5-1411edb645ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Species as Canonical Referents of Super-Organisms
A species is a reproductively isolated population. In essence, it consists of organisms which can only breed with each other, so its ability to self-replicate is entirely self-contained. In practice, the abstraction only applies well to macroflora and macrofauna, which... |
5e9615c7-292e-4c58-a995-90dc8a46f408 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Dark Side of Cognition Hypothesis
It is sometimes claimed that the ultimate, unifying goal of artificial intelligence research is to instantiate human-level cognition in a computational system (e.g., Minsky, 1961; Lake et al, 2017). If artificial general intelligence (AGI) of this sort is ever successfully develop... |
5f0c5ec4-0f99-41e9-8eec-7b3229cf4af4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Getting Out of the Filter Bubble Outside Your Filter Bubble
Related: The "Outside the Box" Box
As politics becomes more polarized, and more people are trying to figure out why, more people think the answer is that too many of us are in filter bubbles, and are consequently trying to get out of them. This seems like th... |
4248fe2b-af4f-494a-9c73-56ed5bf65484 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditional revealed preference
In the linked post, I discuss revealed preference analysis and argue that claims about someone's actual values should predict not only what they do in their current situation, but what they would do in substantially different situations, given e.g. different information and different ex... |
34de3c96-057b-4a2b-91c6-2cb4f0351d06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Lessons in the Game of Go
There are many reasons I enjoy playing go: complex gameplay arises out of simple rules, single mistakes rarely decide games, games between between people of different skill can be handicapped without changing the dynamics of the game too much, there are no draws, and I just like t... |
13adad73-4e07-4512-823d-689472e82e11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Engineering Experience Through Score
This post is about bowling and Super Mario Odyssey.
Bowling is a game about knocking down pins with a ball. There are ten pins, and you (sort of; keep reading) have to knock them all down ten times (each one called a "frame"). You get only two throws per frame; if you still haven'... |
ec056bed-5f98-4b54-9f1f-847419092d78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Overview of AI risks - the Flyer
EffiSciences recently published a document outlining various types of AI risks destined for a technical audience.
We shared this flyer as part of a hackathon we organized with Entrepreneur first at MetaAI Paris.
Feel free to copy and modify this flyer for your own usage.
Special... |
7f183ece-a075-468f-982e-130eb4a34d9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decompiling Tracr Transformers - An interpretability experiment
Note: This blog post is cross-posted from my personal website, where I expect a broader audience than here. If you are familiar with the difficulty and significance of neural network interpretability, skip to the third subsection titled "In defence of fig... |
91b4c87f-2a6d-479e-8b0e-5f6096dd9922 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Near-Optimal BRL using Optimistic Local Transitions
Near-Optimal BRL using Optimistic Local Transitions
Mauricio Araya-L opez, Vincent Thomas, Olivier Bu et marayajvthomasjbuffet@loria.fr
LORIA, Campus scienti que, BP 239, 54506 Vanduvre-ls-Nancy cedex , FRANCE
Abstract
Model-based Bayesian Reinforcement Learn-
ing ... |
c2d68cfb-4bf7-4128-b000-00907a495a76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can self-help be bad for you?
From the NHS Behind the Headlines blog:
> “Self help makes you feel worse,” BBC News has reported. It says that the growing trend of using self-help mantras to boost your spirits may actually have a detrimental effect. The news comes from Canadian research, which found that people wit... |
025d826f-272c-4230-b766-0d7da15c2e37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What about transhumans and beyond?
When it comes to AGI alignment, or just the future in general, it seems many people think in a way that revolves all around humans as we know them today. Take the recent Kurzgesagt video "The Last Human – A Glimpse Into The Far Future" for instance. While it does very briefly mention... |
3ff6e120-cc16-49ac-846a-b11663f35395 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for collaborators - Survey on AI risk priorities
After some conversations here I thought I would try and find out what the community of people who care about AI risk think are the priorities for research.
To represent peoples opinions fairly I wanted to get input from people who care about the future of intel... |
bb26497b-5f0d-4c78-a70d-37f80ed1aea1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Science and the Supernatural
Can science test the supernatural? Yes!! is an interesting article about why there are not "two nonoverlapping magisteria". The core of the article is based on the paper Can Science Test Supernatural Worldviews? Abstract of the latter paper:
> Several prominent scientists, philosophers, a... |
d664264b-2b48-41d0-a840-5c19d8c7ad5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] I Was Wrong, and So Are You
A article in the Atlantic, linked to by someone on the unofficial LW IRC channel caught my eye. Nothing all that new for LessWrong readers, but still it is good to see any mention of such biases in mainstream media.
> I Was Wrong, and So Are You
>
> A LIBERTARIAN ECONOMIST RETRAC... |
52915334-9ce1-4f5f-ba28-67c0faacbf9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interviews with Moonshot AI's CEO, Yang Zhilin
<https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20240208A05KFR00>
# Exclusive interview with Moonshot's Yang Zhilin: How does a new AGI startup surpass OpenAI?
Overseas Unicorn
Published on Beijing Overseas Unicorn official account at 2024-02-21 11:25.
Interviewers: 天一、penny、guangmi
Edito... |
ff337e47-322e-4999-b0fa-3f160efcef8b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Signaling with Small Orange Diamonds
There are so many important efforts to make the world better that are significantly limited by funding, and it would be great if we could have a culture where significant and thoughtful giving was normal and common. It's hard to build that sort of norm if people keep their giving p... |
5ed634dc-ce91-49bc-aa04-92698aa13149 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Modal Fixpoint Cooperation without Löb's Theorem
*Followed By:* [*Payor's Lemma in Natural Language*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iCDBQtby4L2fZ7yns/payor-s-lemma-in-natural-language)
*TL;DR: This post introduces a novel logical approach to achieving group-scale cooperation, based on modal fixpoint theory. Th... |
be675d23-a13e-4838-9ba4-b7888f3d38c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A warm-up for the AI governance project
Here is one possible world we could be living in.
Imagine that the majority of the world's population knows that unaligned AGI is coming. This majority includes most of the world's heads of governments, all of respectable scientists, most of journalists, all your friends, your ... |
e9e79fba-4a3b-44ba-94ed-8e25f4ff4800 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment Newsletter #34
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through the [database](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of all su... |
3a04feb5-61f6-4f44-bb56-d66720f6191f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Dungeoncrawling: The Crown of Command
STORY (skippable)
Across the world adventurers dive into tombs, mausoleums, and sunken cities in search of treasure. They clear out orcish keeps, goblin camps and dragon lairs to keep the people safe. And they meet with lords who wish to hire them to retrieve a certain i... |
6a9997d9-0ab5-4539-bc69-0e5f42ff4227 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is voting theory important? An attempt to check my bias.
You may have seen either or both of my two prior posts here, in which I first said I'm beginning to seek a grant for some voting theory research after I graduate, and then looked into some of the possible sources of such a grant. In this post, I'll dig into why ... |
797177dc-36b9-4340-8fee-a68523156651 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your Dog is Even Smarter Than You Think
Epistemic status: highly suggestive.
[EDIT: Added more info on research methods. Addressed some common criticism. Added titles for video links and a few new vids. Prevented revolution with a military coup d'état]
A combination of surveys and bayesian estimates[1] leads me to b... |
f8934a17-5f6f-468b-8718-28fb20656ac5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What role should evolutionary analogies play in understanding AI takeoff speeds?
*Cross-posted to the EA forum* [*https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aSDnzAm85a3Pi87rm/what-role-should-evolutionary-analogies-play-in*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aSDnzAm85a3Pi87rm/what-role-should-evolutionary-analo... |
d04cab07-3b04-4b47-a057-89834f8d1210 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Picking favourites is hard
If you ask for my "favourite", or whatever is "best", in any broad domain, I will refuse to answer, or else give an answer I know to be probably wrong.
Goodness-judgments are fuzzy, i.e. subjective and intuitive. Fuzzy values only compare one way or the other when values compared are far en... |
633d2656-8fbc-421c-97ac-be311479a01d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Moral uncertainty: What kind of 'should' is involved?
*This post follows on from [my prior post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oZsyK4SjnPe6HGia8/moral-uncertainty-vs-related-concepts); consider reading that post first.*
We are often forced to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. This may be empirical un... |
edba3e02-f962-465c-b3fa-d5be9cb2d2b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Just World Hypothesis
Sometimes bad things happen to good people. Maybe most of the time even, it's hard to know, and even harder to create common knowledge on the topic because if it is so we don't want to know, and tell stories to cover it up when it happens.
Back in the golden age of psychology, long before ... |
40f0f1ec-292c-48f7-9c0f-f9b8d94d53b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doing good in a very noisy world
Suppose you live in a world where every time you try to do something good, it gives rise to such a giant waterfall of side effects that half the time the net effect of your actions is bad, and half the time it is good but largely from sources you didn’t anticipate. Also suppose that th... |
7d39aed0-baf5-4f76-890c-124a25b3e691 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What’s going on with ‘crunch time’?
*Also on LW* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E7rhL9aij7yCCz9AR/what-s-going-on-with-crunch-time)*.*
Imagine the set of decisions which impact TAI outcomes.
Some of the decisions are more important than others: they have a larger impact on TAI outcomes. We care more about ... |
210f55b4-d366-43aa-964f-3cb6f0a3acd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Akrasia and Shangri-La
Today's post, Akrasia and Shangri-La was originally published on 10 April 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The Shangri-La diet works amazingly well for some people, but completely fails for others, for no known reason. Since the diet has a metabolic rationale and is no... |
0e5388ac-4105-48de-876a-f70ba78dd61d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why don't automobiles decelerate faster when necessary?
When cara is trailing carb at 60ish MPH and carb suddenly brakes, cara traverses 150 feet or so before its driver notices danger and stamps on the brakes, and an additional 150 feet are traversed after the brakes are engaged. (It's more complicated than that and ... |
781e3857-5c4e-423e-8be3-c357b2fee6f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA - Randomness: Why We Want It, How We Get It
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA - Randomness: Why We Want It, How We Get It
WHEN: 03 July 2013 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm Wednesday, July 3rd.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs ... |
bd34fb1a-d04a-4fe0-92df-610c8169d09a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Karel Čapek’s 'War with the Newts' 1936 review
🧠 AI Alignment Lessons from Karel Čapek’s War with the Newts
Long before the rise of artificial intelligence, Czech writer Karel Čapek offered a surprisingly relevant allegory in his 1936 novel War with the Newts.
The story follows humanity’s discovery of intelligent a... |
1358ee82-3842-404b-8ac6-0a82755c311f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gato's Generalisation: Predictions and Experiments I'd Like to See
I'm deliberately inhabiting a devil's advocate mindset because that perspective seems to be missing from the conversations I've witnessed. My actual fully-reflective median takeaway might differ.
My covid has made writing difficult at the moment, and ... |
f206212a-a61d-4a85-ba95-08bcad4a44ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How Might an Alignment Attractor Look like?
It is a generally accepted view in MIRI and MIRI-adjacent circles that the odds are high that an eventual self-improving AGI will not be nice to humans, to put it mildly. It is actually becoming a bit of a zeitgeist, gaining more and more widespread support. There are plenty... |
88ebff7b-f1a1-444d-b8d1-1816099bcbde | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Imperfect Levers
Related to : Lost Purposes, The importance of Goodhart's Law, Homo Hypocritus, SIAI's scary idea, Value Deathism
Summary : Whenever human beings seek to achieve goals far beyond their individual ability, they use leverage of some kind of another. Creating organizations to achieve goals is a very powe... |
e49f3c51-6d92-49a5-b9e3-9008b764f705 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What are red flags for Neural Network suffering?
Epistemic status: High uncertainty; This is exploratory work; Our goal is to provide possible research directions rather than offering solutions.
This is shared work. Most of the part on neural correlates is by [Jan](https://universalprior.substack.com/). Most of the p... |
63b60167-bcd6-49ca-8faf-31295cf6f1f1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines
It seems like transformative AI might be coming fairly soon. By transformative AI I just mean AI that will rapidly accelerate economic and technological progress. Of course, I am not ruling out a true singularity either. I am assuming such technology can be created using variant... |
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