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5c768868-5958-4bdf-9f04-5e0cf09b455d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ethics of AI and Its Effect On Us
As many of you know, I've been pretty passionate about the melding to science through AI and philosophy. I've often asked questions on this forum in regards to thought, culture, and figuring out how to decide what an AI should do and how to keep and AI friendly. Fortunately, Slate... |
d78aef37-13c7-442a-9ad9-f5c9139a5103 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Mainstreaming Tell Culture
Mainstreaming Tell Culture and other rational relationship strategies in this listicle for Lifehack, a very popular self-improvement website, as part of my broader project, Intentional Insights , of promoting rationality and science-based thinking to a broad audience. What are your th... |
80f799c0-3f8c-4116-bd9d-d40552d79b09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Dunning-Kruger of disproving Dunning-Kruger
In an online discussion elsewhere today someone linked this article which in turn linked the paper Gignac & Zajenkowski, The Dunning-Kruger effect is (mostly) a statistical artefact: Valid approaches to testing the hypothesis with individual differences data (PDF) (ironi... |
650322bc-9278-4aea-87ba-a44387a8a12d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Internal Double Crux
Author's note: While most CFAR workshops taught double crux first and then internal double crux afterward, it's long been my opinion that both concepts would be better served in the other order. Recent experimentation has shown results consistent with this hypothesis; practicing collaborative trut... |
aaabf7a1-3513-4118-9ded-3a51222a21c7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI, learn to be conservative, then learn to be less so: reducing side-effects, learning preserved features, and going beyond conservatism
Research projects
-----------------
I'm planning to start two research projects on [model splintering/reward generalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/mode... |
fa6b01e5-627a-49bf-b2a9-76ab280206b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why will AI be dangerous?
LessWrong should offer a short pitch on why AI will be dangerous, and this aims to be that.1
Many people think, "Why would humanity make dangerous AI? Seems like a stupid idea. Can't we just make the safe kind?" No. Humanity will make dangerous AI for the same reason we made every other tech... |
69d7af95-2160-4b00-a1cb-96bf1b362be2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Probability interpretations: Examples
(*Written for Arbital in 2016.*)
---
Betting on one-time events
--------------------------
Consider evaluating, in June of 2016, the question: "What is the probability of Hillary Clinton winning the 2016 US presidential election?"
On the **propensity** view, Hillary has som... |
4a32a38a-3f65-4300-b998-20cd729a600a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Marijuana: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
This month I work on my hospital’s Substance Abuse Team, which means we treat people who have been hospitalized for alcohol or drug-related problems and then gingerly suggest that maybe they should use drugs a little less.
The two doctors leading the team are both very exp... |
671c2614-6b8c-4734-84ed-87823088b7ad | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Un-unpluggability - can't we just unplug it?
*My thanks to Sam Brown for feedback on readability and ordering*
>
> Can't we just unplug it?
>
>
>
![An unplugged power cable, resting on wooden floor](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/cniLbC8EFf777Aspb/c4fdpm9... |
640666d6-29c1-41a5-879d-cc76f20c4425 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Utilitarians probably wasting time on recreation
[Post edited to use life expectancy data from estimated time of birth rather than from 2012 and avoid extra significant digits.]
[Edited again to make the title more to the point and less abrasive, change the math since I found that Uganda is not one of their top four ... |
32ffd7d6-e4b1-4ddd-9733-745da751900c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some reasons why I frequently prefer communicating via text
I often prefer communication via text to chatting in person, on the phone, or via a video call. Let's call this latter grouping "oral communication" and the former "textual communication".
This preference applies to various contexts: social, personal, work, ... |
bfe6a837-3430-4d37-bcf9-e28535564bb0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | the multiverse argument argument against automated alignment
the multiverse argument argument against automated alignment
------------------------------------------------------------
there are a bunch of "normal" reasons why i don't particularly favor [using AI systems to do alignment research](https://openai.com/bl... |
897ea6f7-c46f-46b6-8bd5-1c4adec1b536 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How humanity would respond to slow takeoff, with takeaways from the entire COVID-19 pandemic
While there have been some posts on how a slow takeoff would occur given humanity's response to COVID, they were written during the crisis, rather than it's end to get a full account of what would likely happen.
I will be t... |
a5851b33-8f56-46d0-bf3f-483804bcd00b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge Base 5: Business model
The system described in the posts Knowledge Base 2: The structure and the method of building, Knowledge Base 3: Shopping advisor and other uses of knowledge base about products, and Knowledge Base 4: General applications can have the following sources of revenue:
* simple ads;
* fee... |
a692ed9c-0a26-4f3e-8e3d-33b6740aa1ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is your rationality blind spot?
It has been noticed since the time immemorial that cognitive biases have a nasty tendency of being invisible to self (note the proverbial log in one's eye). Uncovering their own blind spot is probably the hardest task for an aspired rationalist. EY and others have devoted a number ... |
ffd1850f-6110-4312-a56d-76da111b3f70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decorated pedestrian tunnels
Moving thru a visually-varied environment helps you remember what you think, say, and hear. Adding visual variety to an area thus aids the memories of those passing thru it, and, on average, makes it look nicer. Dense cities, especially those with mixed-use zoning, already have many mutual... |
f8014bc9-6e00-48ed-bb4f-81eaae309d02 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
[Bayes' rule](https://arbital.com/p/1lz) tells us how strong a piece of evidence has to be in order to support a given hypothesis. This lets us see whether a piece of evidence is sufficient, or insufficient, to drive the probability of a hypothesis to over 50%.
For... |
28903dc1-9aa5-4c23-81d7-a72b7286ed49 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Hutter-Prize for Prompts
The aim of the [Hutter Prize](http://www.hutter1.net/) is to compress the first 1GB of Wikipedia to the smallest possible size. From the AIXI standpoint, compression is equal to AI, and if we can compress this to the ideal size (75MB according to Shannon's lower estimate), then the compression... |
bbaaf017-2ed9-4d27-9c3f-ed3421d1443b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality & Startups - The Workshop
I have been given the opportunity to prepare a workshop for the General Assembly team in London. General Assembly is geared towards education of entrepreneurs and aspiring entrepreneurs and have been very successful in New York, now expanding to London. The workshops are 90 minute... |
fd09d16b-6373-43db-9dc9-92ed8a71a1b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Miriam Yevick on why both symbols and networks are necessary for artificial minds
Miriam Yevick was a mathematician who corresponded with physicist David Bohm in the 1950s and went on to publish a very interesting article on the formal structure of perception and cognition: Holographic or fourier logic [1]. The abstra... |
9ed535b9-6a3f-4ade-9fef-b2850157f9f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Bayes' rule: Guide
Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem is the law of probability governing *the strength of evidence* - the rule saying *how much* to revise our probabilities (change our minds) when we learn a new fact or observe new evidence.
You may want to learn about Bayes' rule if you are:
- A professional who uses s... |
ac6377bc-304e-47a4-9c2b-22462eb01759 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recovering from Failure
|
78f1ad46-cb59-4c4d-9c34-c8e0826695a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Positive-Unlabeled Reward Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
While Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown itself to be a powerful tool for automating control and decision making, hand-specifying reward functions requires significant engineering effort, especially in real-world settings. Recent works have made p... |
38cb5c4a-6e02-4ee9-8592-fc20ee807e7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evolution just might be chaotic
The Chaos Theory of Evolution
:
> Research on animals has come to similarly unexpected conclusions, albeit based on sparser fossil records. For example, palaeontologist Russell Graham at Illinois State Museum has looked at North American mammals and palaeontologist Russell Coope at th... |
2db075ad-0be6-4a10-ad45-c0beedb62b70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #90: The Wall
As the Trump transition continues and we try to steer and anticipate its decisions on AI as best we can, there was continued discussion about one of the AI debate’s favorite questions: Are we making huge progress real soon now, or is deep learning hitting a wall? My best guess is it is kind of both, t... |
4eacf91d-10d6-4076-a1b7-72c25d10c08b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Action and habit
I remember a poster that hung on the wall of my seventh grade classroom. It went like this:
> Watch your thoughts, for they become words.
> Watch your words, for they become actions.
> Watch your actions, for they become habits.
> Watch your habits, for they become your character.
> Watch your charac... |
1e371646-36e2-4025-bc29-57100cf2a44f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Murphy’s Quest Ch 10: Gears-Like Models
“Show me my friends.”
“Ask nicely.”
I swallow what little remains of my pride. “Show me my friends please?”
Nyra draws out the enchanted mirror.
Tess and Vant sleep around what remains of a campfire. Perched precariously in a nearby tree, Plun keeps watch.
“You have loyal f... |
fe5c196c-1e6b-4ad5-8547-85b62cf20b0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measures of Internet Virality and News Popularity
I am not sure exactly what form the resource I am looking for may take (I am believing more and more than I am jargon-gated in my search endeavors), but I am looking for something that tracks viral phenomena over time and that maybe also rates their virality levels.
... |
aa1f58b6-45ee-487d-9d4b-70c9aac61789 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Revaled New Years Resolutions (Pretend it's January edition)
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Revaled New Years Resolutions (Pretend it's January edition)
WHEN: 06 April 2015 06:15:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1061 Market St #4, San Francisco, CA 94103
We'll be meeting... |
99c4fb97-6365-4e18-afa2-9066f918f825 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An AI crash is our best bet for restricting AI
If there is a fast take-off, or corporations start earning billions on large models in the next years, we’ll get locked into a trajectory toward extinction.
Now, I don’t think either will happen. I think the AI market will crash in the next few years. But my credence her... |
beef88e4-f782-4f24-b06b-8dc0055731ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Econtalk with Andresen on BitCoin (some interest here) - link
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2011/04/andresen_on_bit.html |
3d178b09-3f19-4363-859c-4fc7aa6b7bdb | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I’ve written a draft report evaluating a version of the overall case for existential risk from misaligned AI, and taking an initial stab at quantifying the risk from this version of the threat. I’ve made the draft viewable as a public google doc here (Edit: arXiv version here, video presentation here, human-narrated a... |
011814de-3574-41aa-b800-27801bf4b7d0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Supplement to "The Brussels Effect and AI: How EU AI regulation will impact the global AI market"
We just published a ~90-page report called [The Brussels Effect and AI: How EU regulation will impact the global AI market](https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/brussels-effect-ai). This post is a supplement to our re... |
2e88a352-d521-498e-89a4-abeaed0344c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Problems Regarding Counterfactuals: An Introduction For Beginners
|
5afa8bf1-8029-41c8-9ed3-6dfb563933b4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | DeepMind x UCL | Deep Learning Lectures | 4/12 | Advanced Models for Computer Vision
so thank you thank you for coming so
today we're going to talk about vision
vision beyond classification and I guess
like the first question is why do we
need to go beyond the classification so
you know how they say that a picture is... |
fcb4f297-fbaf-4471-a038-8bca767d26a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Sep. 12 - Sep. 18, 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
73fcf9e0-bd25-443c-b469-be98a3175617 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Extensive and Reflexive Personhood Definition
Epistemic status: Speculative idea
It is highly likely that making a friendly AI somehow requires a good definition of what is a morally significant person. The optimal solution may be to figure out what consciousness is, and point to that. But just in case that turns o... |
8b1f4452-b379-4c9a-99c2-d931c20c5561 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : MelbLW Social Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : MelbLW Social Meetup
WHEN: 18 December 2015 06:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Alchemist's Refuge, 228 Little Lonsdale St, Melbourne CBD
It's our final Social Meetup for the year! (Facebook event: click here)
MelbLW's social meetups run on the third Friday o... |
0d00ed2a-4b26-4735-abc7-f18fba7d4c95 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Does ChatGPT’s performance warrant working on a tutor for children? [It’s time to take it to the lab.]
Of course we already have sophisticated robot toys and companion robots for, e.g. older people, but I have no direct experience with any of these. Tutoring is quite different.
Here’s a dialog I had yesterday with Ch... |
5d751d6f-1cbd-4fba-adbd-c8ac1c3bcdc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fusion and Equivocation in Korzybski's General Semantics
I recently tried to figure out Korzybski's General Semantics again. I think I gained some insight into what Korzybski and followers were so excited about, and thought I'd try to write a brief note about it.
My "aha" moment came from reading the wikipedia entry ... |
8e8d399a-f24a-4995-9bcf-afc03091703e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much should e-signatures have to cost a country?
19 bn$ for e-signatures for the Swiss administration?
My gut feeling is, LW is a fine place to ask this - keen to remove if instead it's off topic.
I'm confused reading
> The Swiss Confederation has bought a huge package of e-signatures for up to 17 billion Swiss ... |
312be6d5-dfbc-4aed-b205-1bfe3fd6456f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mind uploading from the outside in
Most discussion of uploading talks of uploading from the inside out: simply, a biological person undergoes a disruptive procedure which digitises their mind. The digital mind then continues the person’s timeline as a digital existence, with all that entails.
The thing that stands... |
9cf0a067-3687-4837-befd-4dad40eabfce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scarce Channels and Abstraction Coupling
Epistemic Status: mental model and intuitive story
Scarce Channels vs Scarce Modules
Let’s distinguish between two kinds of system-regimes: “scarce channels” and “scarce modules”.
A prototypical “scarce modules” system would be one of those 19th-century families living with ... |
3f4622e6-d126-4d0a-8f0f-9531d686bdb7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Cayley's Theorem on symmetric groups
Cayley's Theorem states that every group $G$ appears as a certain subgroup of the [https://arbital.com/p/-497](https://arbital.com/p/-497) $\mathrm{Sym}(G)$ on the [https://arbital.com/p/-3gz](https://arbital.com/p/-3gz) of $G$.
# Formal statement
Let $G$ be a group.
Then $G$ is ... |
d02beca5-5fb4-4abc-8984-0af68067edf2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Emotional regulation, Part I: a problem summary
I have a problem with emotions.
I’ve known this for a long time. It’s a very specific problem, one that only affects me a small percentage of the time: most people I know don’t describe me as an emotional person. I’m lucky enough to have been born with the sort of brain... |
c255ba9f-6e56-4431-b627-873d2d9b9328 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Key event tracker for AI2027
An article you've all probably heard of - AI2027 - has caused me deep surprise. And a desire to do something that can help us not to find ourselves in a hypothetical “acceleration” scenario, no matter how hypothetical it may be.
So, the article describes a number of events that the author... |
259d3037-b52b-436c-ad74-9d2d443a37a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | January 2019 gwern.net newsletter
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beb465a9-c5f8-4a4e-9ee9-5ff3bf0fe3fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [ACX Linkpost] A Modest Proposal for Republicans
I like reading through LW comments more than Substack comments, hence linkpost.
Politics is indeed the mindkiller and/or hard mode, but this post is the most novel and thought-provoking political writing I've seen all year and I can't stop thinking about it. |
d14b07fc-30f5-4abc-9b6f-2c9e3df5fbce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Describing LessWrong in one paragraph
When it comes to announcing Meetup's to people who haven't heard of LessWrong before, there's the need to explain what we are about. I want to invite everyone to share his own one paragraph explanation of what LessWrong is about from their perspective in the comments. |
e419156a-72c3-4a58-a6cc-09cfbc2e9345 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Empirical work that might shed light on scheming (Section 6 of "Scheming AIs")
This is Section 6 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?”. There’s also a summary of the full report here (audio here). The summary covers most of the main points and technical terms, and ... |
6df138fc-346c-47e5-898f-d7bf34dce98c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A model of UDT with a halting oracle
This post requires some knowledge of mathematical logic and computability theory. The basic idea is due to Vladimir Nesov and me.
Let the universe be a computer program U that can make calls to a halting oracle. Let the agent be a subprogram A within U that can also make calls to ... |
b03a2bf4-0236-41bd-9634-9d7896fb079f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Human-AI Coordination via Human-Regularized Search and Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
One of the most fundamental goals of artificial intelligence research, especially multi-agent research, is to produce agents that can successfully collaborate with humans to achieve common goals. Although search and reinf... |
57aaaa50-e071-4678-8131-9dfe11cd7a96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How identical twin sisters feel about nieces vs their own daughters
(cross posted from https://mugwumpery.com/how-identical-twin-sisters-feel-about-nieces-vs-their-own-daughters/)
It seems to be generally assumed that twin sisters feel the same way as other sisters – closer to their own children.
But per Hamilton/Tr... |
40d14bf0-efc2-47de-8a9c-3e9f080d40f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking opinions on the pros and cons of various telepresence tools
In this weird new age of social distancing, everyone is scrambling to figure out how to continue working and having a social life over the internet. There are a lot of platforms and tools out there, and it's hard to know which to choose. This has alre... |
11716c32-187a-4922-82c5-5ba5628f5b34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Possibility and Could-ness
Today's post, Possibility and Could-ness was originally published on 14 June 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Our sense of "could-ness", as in "I could have not rescued the child from the burning orphanage", comes from our own decision making algorithms labeling so... |
871413c4-ec01-48b2-a52a-d8450c1ad5bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Book Review] "The Bell Curve" by Charles Murray
Factor analysis is a mathematical method of inferring simple correlations between observations. It's the foundation of the Big Five personality traits. It's also behind how we define intelligence.
A person's ability to perform one cognitive task is positively correlate... |
9b56c55e-cc96-4575-99ea-242200d69734 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Many Bits Of Optimization Can One Bit Of Observation Unlock?
So there’s this thing where a system can perform more bits of optimization on its environment by observing some bits of information from its environment. Conjecture: observing an additional N bits of information can allow a system to perform at most N ad... |
c111fbfd-1427-4191-aade-cd89e7d93b9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overcorrecting As Deliberate Practice
Something that I've gotten a lot of value out of when learning many different things is to deliberately overcorrect when I notice I'm doing something the wrong way. For example, if I'm trying to hit the ball straight on a golf club, and I'm always hitting to the left, I make a del... |
03f5d795-bc43-4aed-aae4-ff9038e1ce70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Daniel Dewey on MIRI's Highly Reliable Agent Design Work
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5c7c2c5e-1a65-4254-8029-de80b819f6c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Fundamental Doubts
Today's post, Fundamental Doubts was originally published on 12 July 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> There are some things that are so fundamental, that you really can't doubt them effectively. Be careful you don't use this as an excuse, but ultimately, you really can't star... |
63f14f88-bddd-43fd-b623-c917f1bd2342 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Google vs Wikipedia, for-profit vs not-for-profit
When Wikipedia was new, there was much entusiasm over it's not-for-profit model. Recent years have seen a steady decline in the number of users, though. Meanwhile, companies such as Google and Amazon grow ever larger and are, arguably, besides making huge profits contr... |
0c180d8c-5ab1-4fec-85e0-eb1875dffe5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Index of rationalist groups in the Bay Area June 2025
[Last update: 2025-06-07]
The Bay Area rationalist community has an entry problem! Lots of listed groups are dead, the last centralized index disappeared, communication moved to private discord and slacks. This is bad, so we're making a new index, hopefully up to ... |
ecba4431-84b5-4577-a50f-d618ff585178 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FAQ: Advice for AI Alignment Researchers
To quote Andrew Critch:
> I get a lot of emails from folks with strong math backgrounds (mostly, PhD students in math at top schools) who are looking to transition to working on AI alignment / AI x-risk. There are now too many people “considering” transitioning into this field... |
681c480a-88f4-42a6-8d4b-ed85b2c52df3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Analyzing Blackmail Being Illegal (Hanson and Mowshowitz related)
Highlights from the Blackmail Debate (Robin Hanson vs Zvi Mowshowitz) by Ben Pace:
> Here's my overview of their positions.
>
> * Zvi thinks that blackmail would incentivize a whole host of terrible actions, such as trying to trick people into norm v... |
80146e02-5e18-4f8e-a9a4-e808567ecdd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Linkpost: A tale of 2.5 orthogonality theses
Creating a link post to an important argument about a potential motte and bailey fallacy used in the AI alignment community. |
b9ae4e39-c813-42da-b03f-76287f0aa47c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Dialogue On Doublethink
Followup to: Against Doublethink (sequence), Dark Arts of Rationality, Your Strength as a Rationalist
----------------------------------------
Doublethink
> It is obvious that the same thing will not be willing to do or undergo opposites in the same part of itself, in relation to the same ... |
3a3ea8ea-a742-4361-9942-70fb4f3e8b6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (DIY) FMT for Anti-Aging & Biohacking
Forget young blood! You want young poop!
* Fecal Microbiota Transplants (FMTs) is a procedure that transfers the stool of healthy people to the guts of sick people. The mechanism is to replace a dysbiotic gut microbiome with a healthier, disease-resistant, more youthful gut micr... |
094d5343-e43b-4200-afb1-303a9e2e89e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong NH Meet-up
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong NH Meet-up
WHEN: 08 December 2015 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 269 Pearl St Manchester NH 03104
The ninth NH meet-up is Tuesday, 12/8, in Manchester, NH at 7 pm at a private residence. Light refreshments will be provided.
Have you read Rati... |
4145fa4b-9e45-4210-b518-76029011941c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 3. Why impartial altruists should suspend judgment under unawareness
To recap, first, we face an epistemic challenge beyond uncertainty over possible futures. Due to unawareness, we can’t conceive of many relevant futures in the first place, which makes the standard EV framework ill-suited for impartial altruistic dec... |
0bcbd4ad-487f-4640-95d3-0f8930fe8159 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on ADHD
A few different things that have occurred while investigating. It seems weird to me there are lots of posts about akrasia and productivity but not adhd.
1. High Rejection Sensitivity makes my attention in general more flinchy. Rather than just explicit rejection, you can think of this as a high sensi... |
37bb471a-afd5-480b-a5bf-1b6bfb7332aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | REACH Panel Nomination Form
The Berkeley REACH is seeking nominations for members of a panel to help resolve interpersonal issues that arise in or around REACH or the communities it was created to serve. See the REACH Panel Mandate document for more details about the panel.
Please submit one nomination per qualified ... |
01ef8e2c-5630-4d9d-b8a8-82579d3e81b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A transcript of the TED talk by Eliezer Yudkowsky
*The TED talk is available* [*on YouTube*](https://youtu.be/Yd0yQ9yxSYY) *and the* [*TED website*](https://www.ted.com/talks/eliezer_yudkowsky_will_superintelligent_ai_end_the_world)*. Previously, a live recording was published behind the paywall* [*on the conference w... |
4fc08cf1-292b-4436-b396-8b5792616f25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A short 'derivation' of Watanabe's Free Energy Formula
Epistemic status: I wrote the post mostly for myself, in the process of understanding the theory behind Singular Learning Theory, based on the SLT low lecture series. This is a proof sketch with the thoroughness level of an experimental physics lecture: enough to ... |
147a3b9f-d2f4-42d5-8c34-ed65aa22a8d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Productivity: Instrumental Rationality
Meta: I apologise if this is not of interest to most people on LW. I am posting this here anyway since I estimated there was at least a 5% chance that I would find what I'm looking for here, with minimal investment of my time.
Is anyone here tracking productivity every day? Do y... |
ff27f935-45cd-4bdb-8395-ecb467ad846d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Credit Assignment Problem
This post is eventually about partial agency. However, it's been a somewhat tricky point for me to convey; I take the long route. Epistemic status: slightly crazy.
----------------------------------------
I've occasionally said "Everything boils down to credit assignment problems."
Wha... |
f73116c9-913d-42a9-a806-36f371a7da75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper is True
Postscript to: Rock is Strong
Always choosing Rock, broadly construed, is freerolling on the efforts of others and/or you are lying. You are in at some important sense defecting. The problem of an information cascade is real. You are not contributing new true information, instead reinforcing the informa... |
412c42d2-7d00-433b-885e-01baf67faec6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | When AI solves a game, focus on the game's mechanics, not its theme.
1. A game design consists of two things: mechanics and theme.
1. The **game mechanics** is the abstract protocol governi... |
8183fedc-6112-46fb-af1d-f91dfb7ece06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-squatted AI x-risk domains index
I heard about a recent case of a relevant domain being squatted, and figured that the people who buy up domains then sell them at a markup might start to notice the growth of interest in AI x-risk and claim some domains which would otherwise host good projects. I've bought the fol... |
5dda0a59-75c3-4573-ab4a-540129617cb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infra-Bayesianism Distillation: Realizability and Decision Theory
Introduction
Infra-Bayesianism (IB) is an approach to reinforcement learning + embedded agency + decision theory pioneered by Vanessa Kosoy and Diffractor. Their sequence is very dense, and it appears that the majority of people who try to read this seq... |
2e8612a5-f1bc-445d-a05c-381d479053a8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Two-Dimensional Quantum Material Identification via Self-Attention and Soft-labeling in Deep Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Two-dimensional (2D) materials hold immense potential for studying optical, electrical, thermal and magnetic properties of materials and exploiting these properties at micro-level. Ti... |
45882d93-ec3f-401b-b46b-fd17f9b7ff33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Semi-Simplicial Types, Part I: Motivation and History
(Jointly written by Astra Kolomatskaia and Mike Shulman)
This is part one of a three-part series of expository posts on our paper Displayed Type Theory and Semi-Simplicial Types. In this part, we motivate the problem of constructing SSTs and recap its history.
A ... |
7cb602d3-4cb4-4f02-9b1c-ecc820ab3c9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do you expect a singularity within your life time?
By singularity I mean a recursive self-improving intelligence created by man that will help us solve the worlds problems.
please explain the downvotes.. sorry I didn't write an essay or link to lots of in-jokes about the sky being green. It's just a simple question s... |
a24a8fea-a1b3-4c64-a2cb-4115c4d4b607 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Negotiable Reinforcement Learning for Pareto Optimal Sequential Decision-Making.
Negotiable Reinforcement Learning for Pareto
Optimal Sequential Decision-Making
Nishant Desai
Center for Human-Compatible AI
University of California, Berkeley
nishantdesai@berkeley.eduAndrew Critch
Department of EECS
University of Califo... |
0438b3f3-e01f-441f-99a8-deb77eb5f29b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Three scenarios of pseudo-alignment
*This is my second distillation of* [*Risks from Learned of Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems*](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820) *focusing on deceptive alignment.*
As the old saying goes, alignment may go wrong in many different ways, but right only in one (and... |
1934f363-b4b5-47ce-810c-5dbd08b9d520 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, Jun. 22 - Jun. 28, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately... |
3d747051-d1a5-4ee5-8198-7014528ac717 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Should" considered harmful
My last few posts have been aimed at addressing what I call the "listless guilt," the vague sense of guilt that stems from not doing anything in particular. I said:
> The listless guilt is a guilt about not doing anything. To remove it, we must first turn it into a guilt about not doing so... |
f9460853-46b0-40ce-bdc4-41f53d4a7e4d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #168]: Four technical topics for which Open Phil is soliciting grant proposals
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look thro... |
45301c8c-65b8-464d-8bc1-a56e0b184b6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A case for fairness-enforcing irrational behavior
There's a long-standing and possibly unsolvable puzzle about how AIs should behave in game-theoretic situations with each other. The simplest example is the Ultimatum Game, where player A proposes how a dollar should be split between A and B, and B either accepts or re... |
96a28ec1-f774-467b-ab54-9fa4e41dccca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conditioning Predictive Models: Making inner alignment as easy as possible
*This is the fourth of seven posts in the [Conditioning Predictive Models Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/n3utvGrgC2SGi9xQX) based on the paper “[Conditioning Predictive Models: Risks and Strategies](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.00805)... |
77fd35f9-9e8a-4fc9-81e4-3c98ca3a87c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking education
This will not be a long post; I have a simple question to ask: if you wanted to educate yourself to graduate level in mathematics, but didn't actually want to go to university, what would you do? I would ask for text-book recommendations, but I don't want to limit your responses (however, bear in min... |
c1c9b60f-2722-48ae-9f9f-02cd497b8e8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why CFAR's Mission?
Related to:
* Our 2015 Fundraiser; Why CFAR? The view from 2015; Critch's "The 2015 x-risk ecosystem".
Briefly put, CFAR's mission is to improve the sanity/thinking skill of those who are most likely to actually usefully impact the world.
I'd like to explain what this mission means to me, an... |
6ded18c7-98ed-498d-b34a-66b7e323a948 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | logic puzzles and loophole abuse
I recently read about the hardest logic puzzle ever on Wikipedia and noticed that someone published a paper in which they solved the problem by asking only two questions instead of three. This relied on abusing the loophole that boolean formulas can result in a paradox.
This got me th... |
05a5dcfd-43b6-4cc8-9b6f-d41f9fbe7d26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Book review] No nonsense meditation
This is a book review of the book No nonsense meditation by Steven Laureys. I read it in the context of a personal literature review project on the topic of productivity and well being.
How I read
I read this book almost in its entirety but I did skim a few parts and skipped a ch... |
9c1108d0-d405-42c6-a17b-d9e55821cc90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Genomic emancipation
PDF version. berkeleygenomics.org. x.com. bluesky. YouTube.
Introduction
We, the free world, as a society, should decide to invest in the development of technology for human germline genomic engineering.
To me, this claim speaks for itself. Who wouldn't want to massively decrease the risks of m... |
74ff8be8-ed97-4475-b8fe-c140f8fd569f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The great energy descent (short version) - An important thing EA might have missed
**tl;dr.** We’ll probably have less and less energy in the coming decades, and should prepare for it. Here are the main takeaways:
* Fossil fuels are finite and will peak in the coming decades
* Renewables and nuclear rely on them to b... |
9fae9c17-f6a7-493d-b015-a37f7d1ad137 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Formalizing Policy-Modification Corrigibility
In [*Corrigibility Can Be VNM-Incoherent*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WCX3EwnWAx7eyucqH/corrigibility-can-be-vnm-incoherent), I operationalized an agent's corrigibility.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform:... |
9f8cc714-162e-48b2-9756-ed8a3661604b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Funding Category Open in Foresight's AI Safety Grants
Foresight Institute's AI Safety Grants Program added a new focus area in response to the continually evolving field. Moving forward, our funding ($1.5M-$2M annually) will be allocated across the following four focus areas:
1. Automating AI-relevant researc... |
2c135b88-cda9-413b-9d80-414a0259c726 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Practitioner: Novice
The Triad gave Taman a week to pay off his crushing debt. Now the Guild of the Rose claims they can help, but how can Taman trust them when he doesn't even know what they want?
This is a fictional story about what the Guild of the Rose could someday become. |
479136b2-1336-4ac0-90e1-8ca49236f46b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yvain's most important articles
Important
Meditations on Moloch: An explanation of co-ordination problems within our society
Weak Men are Superweapons (supplement - feminists will like this one less)
The Virtue of Silence - silence is a hard virtue
You Kant Dismiss Universalizability - Kant is about no... |
632faffc-f656-4b58-9732-6bff706343cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Being a teacher
A few weeks ago, while giving unofficial swimming lessons to an acquaintance about my age, I had an insight. It was that before you can teach something, you have to realize it’s hard.
I don’t think I noticed this before, because I thought it was obvious. Of course someone who doesn’t know how to swim ... |
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