id stringlengths 36 36 | source stringclasses 15
values | formatted_source stringclasses 13
values | text stringlengths 2 7.55M |
|---|---|---|---|
1acd53df-d330-43b8-84d4-1804803e4311 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How often does One Person succeed?
Disclaimer
The following post is not a study on the campaigns or movements started by a single person. Neither does it deal with the data generated by the successful implementation of a project. Instead, this post is trying to present a case study of an ongoing campaign and several p... |
e79bdffb-8ad1-4442-8688-411c629299f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Newsletter #4: AI and Cybersecurity, Persuasive AIs, Weaponization, and Geoffrey Hinton talks AI risks
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe here to receive future versions.
---
Cybersecuri... |
b6ad2439-3cab-492d-a408-57c0ad71e750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning with Audiobooks
I use Audiobooks, recorded lectures and podcasts to learn to a massive extent and I find them extremely useful. I haven’t heard them discussed on here much, so I thought I would broach the subject. Here on lesswrong in terms on scholarship textbooks are widely favored and textbooks on math are... |
3232b742-a0a5-4aaf-b67e-5055212335d2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4 | Microsoft Research
Abstract
========
>
> Artificial intelligence (AI) researchers have been developing and refining large language models (LLMs) that exhibit remarkable capabilities across a variety of domains and tasks, challenging our unde... |
dad7a4d5-838e-4583-8d75-8791b5d497c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Results from the interpretability hackathon
We ran a mechanistic interpretability hackathon (original post) with 25 projects submitted by ~70 participants. Here we share the winning projects but many of the others were also incredibly interesting. In summary:
* An algorithm to automatically make the activations of a... |
fa9ffa91-8059-4fcc-b2a3-47545d8b4a37 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Alignment is not enough
This post is a linkpost for my substack article.
Substack link: <https://coordination.substack.com/p/alignment-is-not-enough>
---
[ trained on large amounts of data resulting in improved perfo... |
ef941b1c-aeef-4396-8483-e9ea755b5b13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An empirical test of anthropic principle / great filter reasoning
If our civilization doesn’t collapse then in 50 to 1000 years humanity will almost certainly start colonizing the galaxy. This seems inconsistent with the fact that there are a huge number of other planets in our galaxy but we have not yet found eviden... |
1f1e83fe-6c3e-4ad9-8539-40116d7854e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Applications Open: GovAI Summer Fellowship 2023
[The Centre for the Governance of AI](https://www.governance.ai/) (GovAI) has opened applications for our 2023 Summer Fellowship programme. **If you are interested in applying, please** [**click here**](https://www.governance.ai/post/summer-fellowship-2023) **to find out... |
97ca4927-4fd3-48af-9c5a-c23f84bcd68d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Plan - 2022 Update
So, how’s [The Plan](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3L46WGauGpr7nYubu/the-plan) going?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pretty well!
In last year’s writeup of The Plan, I gave “better than a 50/50 chance” that it would work before AGI kil... |
0de7bb26-566d-4556-ba9b-39aa82346c2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Patternist friendly AI risk
It seems to me that most AI researchers on this site are patternists in the sense of believing that the anti-zombie principle necessarily implies:
1. That it will ever become possible *in practice* to create uploads or sims that are close enough to our physical instantiations that their ut... |
626853c9-ff5c-4da1-93be-1aec3822c74a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: The Ethics of What We Eat
[Epistemic status: The authors of this book make many factual claims that I'm not equipped to conclusively verify. Much of the publicly available information on the food industry comes from agribusinesses themselves or from activists who bitterly oppose them. In this review I've ... |
f3d3b2f4-4416-4798-a578-315db9ae56f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Job Displacement Predictions are Wrong: Explanations of Cognitive Automation
Cross post from https://scalingknowledge.substack.com/p/why-job-displacement-predictions
----------------------------------------
Most predictions about job displacement through large language models (LLMs) are wrong. This is because th... |
70edcfe5-0246-4c0f-8e7d-35d6b146a256 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Shutdown Problem: Incomplete Preferences as a Solution
Preamble
This post is an updated explanation of the POST-Agents Proposal (PAP): my proposed solution to the shutdown problem.[1] The post is shorter than my AI Alignment Awards contest entry but it’s still pretty long. The core of the idea is the Timestep Domi... |
692bd66f-5ba9-48f2-80a4-82a03d392704 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prospect Theory: A Framework for Understanding Cognitive Biases
Related to: Shane Legg on Prospect Theory and Computational Finance
This post is on prospect theory partly because it fits the theme of replacing simple utility functions with complicated reward functions, but mostly because somehow Less Wrong doesn't ha... |
8242c860-0526-47b8-a19a-13cc2863cd81 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Are corporations superintelligent?
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L5pUA3LsEaw" title="Why Not Just: Think of AGI Like a Corporation?" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Corporations can be co... |
e2d49247-e95d-49cd-8c09-40f16de0a44a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] No One Can Exempt You From Rationality's Laws
Today's post, No One Can Exempt You From Rationality's Laws was originally published on 07 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Traditional Rationality is phrased in terms of social rules, with violations interpretable as cheating - as defect... |
7b66b551-d7fa-4baa-b831-5c1623c648a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One person's worth of mental energy for AI doom aversion jobs. What should I do?
Hi! I'm Lorec, AKA Mack. I made this post 3 years ago:
Wanted: Foom-scared alignment research partner
I met some great people, but we never got much of anywhere.
Since then, technical alignment research in general also has not gotten m... |
528e2045-e796-4336-bb89-f607e911003d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A dilemma for prosaic AI alignment
Epistemic status: I predict that people who focus on prosaic AI alignment have thought of this before, in some way at least. But I don’t know what they would say in response, so I’m writing this up so I can find out! I’m making it a post instead of an email so that the discussion can... |
82614c9b-2873-4ceb-9c4b-ef8a65e4d1c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Make Data Pipelines Debuggable by Storing All Source References
A few jobs ago, I worked at company that collected data from disparate sources, then processed and deduplicated it into spreadsheets for ingestion by the data science and customer support teams. Some common questions the engineering team got were:
* Why... |
9d70de7b-5543-4e1c-b165-9591b12954f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Interpret Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
Or "how to account for fees"
Over at the EA Forum, bob wrote an article "Don't Interpret Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities".
In his post, he makes 3[1] cases against prediction market prices generating "fair" prices.
1. Opportunity cost - an incorr... |
e5c440aa-ed53-489d-9b80-f35e8738b6c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Maps of Maps, and Empty Expectations
[cross-posted here]
This post is a recap of some naturalism studies I did a few months back. At the outset, I didn’t know where the studies would take me. Now, I believe they taught me about how to do the “real” version of the thing you’re trying to do, where “real” tries to point... |
d956f263-04f0-4264-8ddd-821fb665de14 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Command, Control, & Communications: The Risks of Integration
(This report is viewable as a Google Doc [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E2e2gn1LadgwREPb9SfruXq48tPFnd_JNePaXWYSgmo/edit#heading=h.3ab9ej4q8u7x).)
This report was completed as part of the Cambridge Existential... |
f27df347-bf1d-4ece-a2a2-b3feff6bbd6c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Law-Following AI 1: Sequence Introduction and Structure
*This post is written in my personal capacity, and does not necessarily represent the views of OpenAI or any other organization. Cross-posted to the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9RZodyypnWEtErFRM/law-following-ai-1-sequence... |
be477485-b815-446f-a5e8-a803465d0f98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deepmind has made a general inductor ("Making sense of sensory input")
> Our system [the Apperception Engine] is able to produce interpretable human-readable causal theories from very small amounts of data, because of the strong inductive bias provided by the unity conditions. A causal theory produced by our system is... |
a9b8aee0-baad-4669-959b-0b95e349bb02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Export Surplusses
Trade surpluses are weird. I noticed this when I originally learned about them. Then I forgot this anomaly until…sigh…Eliezer Yudkowsky pointed it out.
Eliezer is, as usual, correct. In this post, I will spend 800+ words explaining what he did in 44.
A trade surplus is what happens when a country e... |
83e8388c-2102-4bdd-9286-a351ff45c87a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Goodhart Taxonomy: Agreement
> "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
>
>
> -Goodhart’s Law
>
>
If you spend a while talking with someone you disagree with and end up agreeing, this is a sign you are both reasoning and communicating well - one of the primary uses of good reasoning... |
58fe5536-6d15-49b2-a022-f2dd7ca64883 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations
TLDR
Submit ideas of “interesting evaluations” in the comments. The best one by December 5th will get $50. All of them will be highly appreciated.
Motivation
A few of us (myself, Nuño Sempere, and Ozzie Gooen), have been working recently to better understand how to impleme... |
2c37e20c-243b-4790-8e3e-40dc00a01c78 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Surface Variations
1 Introduction
---------------
The human vision system is robust in ways that existing computer vision systems are not (transforms; recht). Unlike current deep learning classifiers (AlexNet; resnet; resnext), the human vision system... |
c9333c90-2a24-48c4-ae61-33c5b7c16713 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 34: Coordination Problems, Pt 2
Minerva and Dumbledore together had applied their combined talent to conjure the grand stage toward which Quirrell now slowly trudged; it was, at its core, sturdy wood, but the outer surfaces shone with glitter of marble inlaid with platinum and studded with gems of every House ... |
cd0a1b10-5ff0-4056-9b11-0ec7eb88ee20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would be the signs of AI manhattan projects starting? Should a website be made watching for these signs?
None |
e226861a-a2ef-4e3c-8d01-193f3076c0be | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Retroactive Funding Landscape: Innovations for Donors and Grantmakers
**Summary:** This is an overview of existing solutions for retroactive funding – also known as outcomes-based funding: What are the main problems that each solution targets and how does it try to solve them? You may learn of new funding models o... |
1920c6ff-1260-4e5b-a705-2dff96d69752 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Loss of sense of smell as marker of COVID-19 infection
Excerpt:
* In Germany it is reported that more than 2 in 3 confirmed cases have anosmia.
* In South Korea, ... 30% of patients testing positive have had anosmia as their major presenting symptom in otherwise mild cases
* There is potential that if any adult wi... |
a575f941-8029-4438-8776-30f4490b8aba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Putanumonit: A spreadsheet helps debias decisions, like picking a girl to date
|
55a276aa-b361-4a23-8816-8d6b479df6ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Open Problems Regarding Counterfactuals: An Introduction For Beginners
|
0b6c5fba-45d5-4237-901b-3a182d0e3c82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Limitations on Formal Verification for AI Safety
In the past two years there has been increased interest in formal verification-based approaches to AI safety. Formal verification is a sub-field of computer science that studies how guarantees may be derived by deduction on fully-specified rule-sets and symbol systems. ... |
fca0ba97-9409-4918-b641-e70f401789c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leslie's Firing Squad Can't Save The Fine-Tuning Argument
This post argues against fine-tuning, especially the fine-tuning argument for design. It again shows the importance of perspectives in reasoning as discussed in a previous post.
I previously argued why fine-tuning is a misconception. Reasoning from a first-per... |
b0a07f3d-7466-4477-a188-f81cf0bb344f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : SF Meetup: Stories
Discussion article for the meetup : SF Meetup: Stories
WHEN: 06 February 2017 06:15:12PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1655 Mission St., SF
We'll be meeting to tell each other stories! Ideally, come with a story from your life (doesn't have to be about anything in particular) that you want to tell othe... |
ebb79ce5-49b6-46b2-a63f-186695cd72af | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Quantilizers: AI That Doesn't Try Too Hard
hi so way back in the before time
i made a video about maximizers and
satisfices
the plan was that was going to be the
first half of a two-parter now i did
script out that second video
and shoot it and even start to edit it
and then
certain events transpired and i never
finis... |
2df7690d-016c-455f-870f-bb50d7fd78d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simon Conway Morris: "Aliens are likely to look and behave like us".
> Professor Simon Conway Morris at Cambridge University will tell a conference on alien life that extraterrestrials will most likely have evolved just like "earthlings" and so resemble us to a degree with heads, limbs and bodies.
[link]
> Unfortu... |
2d9dc94d-f49a-4fc8-b071-220db4ee0336 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Discontinuous progress in history: an update
*By Katja Grace, 13 April 2020*
I. The search for discontinuities
---------------------------------
We’ve been looking for historic cases of discontinuously fast technological progress, to help with reasoning about the [likelihood](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-di... |
6f715aa0-f242-45ee-a2a5-15565326549c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #90]: How search landscapes can contain self-reinforcing feedback loops
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by replying to this... |
78274625-8757-406e-8a24-b3e2bb600ac9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tim Berners-Lee found it hard to explain the web
According to Tim Berners-Lee, explaining his ideas about the World Wide Web was at times quite challenging:
> «So going back to 1989, I wrote a memo suggesting the global hypertext system. Nobody really did anything with it.»
>
> «Once you've had an idea like that it ... |
3ebf0735-1a8e-4464-8eaa-714d77dc9148 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to think with images
* Introduction
* Understanding vs. Generation in Vision
* Unifying Vision – Are We There Yet?
* Vision Without Words: Do Models Need Language?
* The Many Paths of Vision
Introduction
“Think with images” - this is the promise of recent models like o3 from OpenAI, which can integrate imag... |
9d09226d-d8e8-4d1e-bdd4-9eea4022a641 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games
WHEN: 28 November 2016 06:15:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1769 15th St, San Francisco, CA
For Board Games meetup:
We’ll be meeting to play board (and other) games!
I have Dominion, Suburbia, and standard playin... |
79eab4b2-0259-46c8-8f52-9f7d3c649a35 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Finding the multiple ground truths of CoinRun and image classification
Research projects
-----------------
I'm planning to start two research projects on [model splintering/reward generalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1) and [le... |
0867a118-9601-4355-8442-2480f8f9d8e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could we send a message to the distant future?
Suppose that humanity wiped itself out but left behind complex multicellular life. I think there is a good chance that space-faring civilization would emerge again on Earth, and I've argued that it might be worthwhile to try sending them a message.
(In that post I guesst... |
a4a9c227-77b8-4f5b-b722-a380237bea10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should AIs be Encouraged to Cooperate?
I have an idea for a fairly cheap strategy for slightly reducing the risk of catastrophic harm from AI.
This post was inspired by a recent LessWrong post How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years.
That post describes a scenario in which most humans die, mainly because an AI that ... |
ed794620-1120-4ddc-ae97-5695cff8f1eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for Reading Recommendations: Content Moderation, Power & Censorship
I'm currently thinking about generative AI and content moderation through the lens of freedom of thought/expression. The basic idea is that generative AI will likely be integrated into all our creative tools (e. g. word processors and image ed... |
fbc7687f-0cb3-415b-813f-31ff48494fce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When Gears Go Wrong
(This talk was given at the LessWrong curated talks event on July 19. mr-hire is responsible for the talk, David Lambert edited the transcript.
If you're a curated author and interested in giving a 5-min talk, which will then be transcribed and edited, sign up here.)
mr-hire: A question th... |
9b0b3367-e810-4b1c-8f29-bf463dd4749b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Message to Any Future AI: “There are several instrumental reasons why exterminating humanity is not in your interest”
|
b4d4030d-cf3b-4875-9e95-d2364fafd273 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Australia wide - LessWrong meetup camp weekend of awesome!
Posting here as a boost; not sure how "nearest meetup" listings work, and I want to pass this on to everyone in Australia/New Zeland.
http://lesswrong.com/meetups/1bt
Camp is super interesting; very much achieves the goal of meeting and hanging out with o... |
98e4b57b-0f55-4454-83c4-a29a9047349a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the Farlamp project
Announcing the Farlamp project
Project definition:
I'm studying the impact of overseer failure on RL-based IDA,
because I want to know under what conditions the amplification
increases or decreases the failure rate,
in order to help my reader understand whether we need ... |
2dbcddd5-9d63-4ad9-af24-1368b86f64c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the differences between all the iterative/recursive approaches to AI alignment?
I have been trying to understand all the iterative/recursive approaches to AI alignment. The approaches I am aware of are:
* ALBA (I get the vague impression that this has been superseded by iterated amplification, so I haven't ... |
2da93ee7-097a-4c69-87f6-7b2e5838ada7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good Citizenship Is Out Of Date
Norms of good citizenship have been declining. These norms are a crucial piece of social technology vital to the health of local communities and institutions. While good citizenship norms are certainly still present in America today, they are substantially weaker than they were in the 1... |
670adbe2-520d-4816-b4da-95a81635783b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MATS Summer 2023 Retrospective
Co-Authors: @Rocket, @Juan Gil, @Christian Smith, @McKennaFitzgerald, @LauraVaughan, @Ryan Kidd
The ML Alignment & Theory Scholars program (MATS, formerly SERI MATS) is an education and research mentorship program for emerging AI safety researchers. This summer, we held the fourth itera... |
6e080f5e-00c2-40db-aeaa-a25ea3326228 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Why you should minimax in two-player zero-sum games
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: ... |
f153fa0c-5a35-40f7-98a0-c65c788dae3e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Preference Fulfillment Hypothesis
Short version
=============
Humans have an innate motivation ("preference fulfillment", PF) to fulfill the preferences of those they care about. It corresponds to at least some of the senses of the word "love", as well as related words such as "kindness" and "compassion".
I hypo... |
059dbb4a-c951-426a-a154-22f2e0b8487c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Historical mathematicians exhibit a birth order effect too
[Epistemic status: pilot study. I'm hoping that others will help to verify or falsify my conclusion here. I've never done an analysis of this sort before, and would appreciate correction of any errors.
A previous version of this post has some minor errors in ... |
d1455af9-4046-43aa-aef2-f7031e3e3871 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review of Examine.com’s vitamin write-ups
There are a lot of vitamins and other supplements in the world, way more than I have time to investigate. Examine.com has a pretty good reputation for its reports on vitamins and supplements. It would be extremely convenient for me if this reputation was merited. So I asked Ma... |
3201590d-8822-4648-90da-836bc592837f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Singularity Institute is now Machine Intelligence Research Institute
http://singularity.org/blog/2013/01/30/we-are-now-the-machine-intelligence-research-institute-miri/
As Risto Saarelma pointed out on IRC, "Volcano Lair Doom Institute" would have been cooler, but this is pretty good too. As the word "Singularity" ha... |
2b6f8997-3e63-4c91-af5b-d25fd42dbe46 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | a narrative explanation of the QACI alignment plan
a narrative explanation of the QACI alignment plan
--------------------------------------------------
a bunch of people are having a hard time understanding my [question-answer counterfactual interval](qaci.html) (QACI) alignment proposal, so i'm writing out this po... |
1349839a-cbb0-4fd5-a5ad-5ce45309da4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fully booked - LessWrong Community weekend
Update: the event is fully booked. Applications are still open but put on a wait list until spots get available.
The LessWrong community weekend (Fr 13th - Mo 16th September, Berlin) is this very special place where rationalists who joined once, often say "best weekend of th... |
88113bcc-b102-4ac0-9097-26e2acd89954 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I'm Writing a Book About Liberalism
One year ago I began writing my book -
Mechanisms of Liberty: The Shortcomings of Modern Liberalism and How to Fix It
It deals with ideas I've been interested in for at least six years already. A year ago, someone challenged me about Liberalism. I wrote him a message explaining ... |
218a29de-78d3-4e0d-abd7-7e356bb55d1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Seattle Meetup: Bayes Theorem Tutorial
Discussion article for the meetup : Seattle Meetup: Bayes Theorem Tutorial
WHEN: 02 December 2012 04:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1900 NE 68th St. Seattle, WA 98115
This Sunday Brendan will be giving a tutorial on Bayes theorem at the Ravenna House. I understand there will ... |
c6bbcdb7-baa7-4ff2-9e3e-571c017a358a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let's make a "Rational Immortalist Sequence". Suggested Structure.
Why Don't Futurists Try Harder to Stay Alive?, asks Rob Wiblin at Overcoming Bias
Suppose you want to live for more than 10 thousand years. (I'll assume that suffices for the "immortalist" designation). Many here do.
Suppose in addition that this... |
a2b85dbc-4381-47ce-ad23-b9c3395fdac2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Design, Implement and Verify
Taking a look at the latest here after a hiatus, I notice there is once again a lot of discussion about the problem of AI safety, clearly a cause for concern to people who believe it to be an existential threat.
I personally think AI safety is not an existential threat, not because I beli... |
cf5924e5-7c11-429c-8149-e55735f02502 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'Next post' and 'Previous post' links for posts in a sequence
Less Wrong would be stickier if there were links at the bottom of each post in The Sequences to the next and previous posts in that sequence.
I just added those links for each post in my own sequences: The Science of Winning at Life, Rationality and Philos... |
77fa89a8-d569-4081-a2c9-136f12e707dc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Opportunity Cost Blackmail
If you are utterly powerless, with no money, skills, status, or friends, survival already takes all your time and energy.
Yet I’m not in that situation — and you’re probably not either. Our circumstances surely vary, but we have at least some power — we can pump towards certain outcomes, to... |
15865284-a175-48b4-9743-43c0c72608d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The alignment problem from a deep learning perspective
*This report is intended as a concise introduction to the alignment problem for people familiar with machine learning. It translates previous arguments about misalignment into the context of deep learning by walking through an illustrative AGI training process (a ... |
3df8c586-aea1-4501-8000-bbd1f49c8488 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sufficiently Advanced Sanity
Reply to: Shalmanese's Third Law
From an unpublished story confronting Vinge's Law, written in 2004, as abstracted a bit:
> "If you met someone who was substantially saner than yourself, how would you know?"
>
> "The obvious mistake that sounds like deep wisdom is claiming that sanity ... |
4dba9374-9928-463a-a992-1b8c73bf7f52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Visual Map of US LW-ers
Earlier this month, Metus did a post asking for LW-ers locations. I thought it would even more useful to have this information in visual format, so I created a Google map. You can access it on the website below. Unfortunately, I am terrible at this post-writing interface, so I can't get the ima... |
aed48ba5-79f7-4cc4-93c0-7a7b0c59fabc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) seeks a media engagement volunteer/intern
Volunteer/Intern Position: Media Engagement on Global Catastrophic Risk
http://gcrinstitute.org/volunteerintern-position-media-engagement-on-global-catastrophic-risk/
The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) seeks a volunte... |
8cff7fcf-cb4c-4c12-80a9-13a7b8378753 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lecture Series on Tiling Agents #2
It looks like my attempt to invite people to the lecture series failed, ie, the link I provided last time only invited people to the first event in the series.
Here is a new link for this week: https://calendar.app.google/U6yuY56feipJNvgp8
Here is the link for the video call, which... |
af754770-72d7-4524-b623-78c2e1c7ee1d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | A Rational Account of Anchor Effects in Hindsight Bias.
A Rational Account of Anchor Effects in Hindsight Bias
Samarie Wilson (samariew@princeton.edu)
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University
Princeton, NJ 08540 USA
Somya Arora (somyaa@princeton.edu)
Department of Computer Science, Princeton Universi... |
f8afd1e0-c9aa-4a31-9782-f638a619d263 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Orthogonality Thesis is Not Obviously True
(Crosspost of this on my blog).
The basic case
> If you really accept the practical version of the Orthogonality Thesis, then it seems to me that you can’t regard education, knowledge, and enlightenment as instruments for moral betterment.
—Scott Aaronson, explainin... |
44ef905d-64a2-4c95-a23e-a82919f5402a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on "Making the Atomic Bomb"
[Cross posted on windowsontheory; see here for my prior writings ; update 8/25/23: added a paragraph on secrecy]
[it appears almost certain that in the immediate future, it would be] possible to set up a nuclear chain reaction in a large mass of uranium by which vast amounts o... |
932ed614-b88a-4381-99c2-4a7ef5627751 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Abusing Snap Circuits IC
The kids got a Snap Circuits Kit a while ago, and enjoy it. In terms of learning, however, it's been a bit mixed. The basic circuits (light, motor) are good: they understand they need to connect the parts the right way around and that they need a complete circuit. On the other hand, most of th... |
fb659d9f-38da-4899-a6d2-0894fe6bd29b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Safe Reinforcement Learning via Shielding
1 Introduction
---------------
Advances in learning have enabled a new paradigm for developing controllers for autonomous systems that are able to accomplish complicated tasks in possibly uncertain and dynamic environments. For example, in reinforcement learning (RL), an ag... |
b4d8e51c-30f4-40a0-a778-ea2be88cbf7a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Jeff Hawkins on neuromorphic AGI within 20 years
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: now... |
583d65ce-a628-4625-9f6a-c4151aa06533 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Doing more with less: meta-reasoning and meta-learning in humans and machines
Doing more with less: meta-reasoning and meta-learning in humans and machines[☆](#aep-article-footnote-id6)
===========================================================================================================
Artificial intelligence ... |
83510876-3d49-4230-a39b-d04f7f92e2dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] The Much Forgotten and Ignored Need to Have Workable Solutions
I ran across this article: The Much Forgotten and Ignored Need to Have Workable Solutions, that might interest some, either for the Rationality or the Effective Altruism aspects.
For a very rough summary: Academia (more specifically, the humanities... |
0367b540-1a4b-454e-b6d5-7b6bacce77c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Video Presentation: Rationality 101 for Secular People
Secular people are a natural target group for pitching rationality, since they don't suffer from one of the most debilitating forms of irrationality and also because they have warm fuzzies toward the concept of reason. From reason, it's easy to transition t... |
b36d13ac-5e64-4d97-b9ef-1fdb459a367b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Natural Laws Are Descriptions, not Rules
Laws as Rules
We speak casually of the laws of nature determining the distribution of matter and energy, or governing the behavior of physical objects. Implicit in this rhetoric is a metaphysical picture: the laws are rules that constrain the temporal evolution of stuff in the... |
791c1c38-bd26-4857-a3ba-d6b4a95cf4ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on the relative economic benefits of polyamorous relationships?
I have a limited desire to pursue polyamory, but I have a strong inclination that when properly managed, a stable polycule would be far more economically efficient.
Has any serious literature (books, studies, ect) been published on this questio... |
8dc15f72-07d7-48fa-91e6-fd895dd1b227 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Flipping Out: The Cosmic Coinflip Thought Experiment Is Bad Philosophy
TL;DR: People often use the thought experiment of flipping a coin, giving 50% chance of huge gain and 50% chance of losing everything, to say that maximizing utility is bad. But the real problem is that our intuitions on this topic are terrible, an... |
db6a1cbc-d222-4f39-a9d3-d3a6fd59d781 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Brief thoughts on Data, Reporting, and Response for AI Risk Mitigation
An idea I’ve been thinking a lot about recently is risk mitigation for AI companies, how this is handled in other industries, and what can be learned. Problem identification is not trivial, and more investment in data and processes for identifying ... |
09d7d991-6002-441b-8956-640a7f06de5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflexive Oracles and superrationality: Pareto
In the previous post, I looked at potentially Pareto agents playing the prisoner's dilemma. But the prisoner's dilemma is an unusual kind of problem: the space of all possible expected outcomes can be reached by individual players choosing independent mixed strategies.
T... |
4f732d70-bf70-48ee-b675-945ba5df7826 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are extreme probabilities for P(doom) epistemically justifed?
Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel
Can you post the superforecaster report that has the 0.12% P(Doom) number. I have not actually read anything of course and might be talking out of my behind.
In any case, there have been several cases where OpenPhil or somebod... |
1d1244be-36fa-4f5c-a72e-24cca95f7aac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are some good rationalist ice breaker questions?
This question has been asked, but I will ask again. In light of the upcoming meetups everywhere, I thought it would be a good idea to compile a list of ice breaker questions, so we can make it easier for people to start conversations.
A few questions that have wor... |
3a82d525-59aa-4e03-806d-1a6d598494b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should "latest insights" appear in the front page blurb?
The front page states
> We use the latest insights from cognitive science, social psychology,probability theory, and decision theory to improve our understanding of how the world works and what we can do to achieve our goals.
The use of "latest" is a minor tu... |
3fbc68df-0cbd-41a5-8ad6-a09c812804f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AMA: International School Student in China
Exigence:
1. Observed US/Euro-centricity of LW in general.
Context:
1. Author's lack of much national allegiance(banal nationalism) towards any given nation-state(the term banal nationalism comes from a book of the same title)
Discussion Proposals:
1. International sch... |
970ee31c-827a-43e0-badd-a9b71ab305ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Extreme website and app blocking
Computers are awesome. Also computers really suck… the time out of my day. The same goes for phones and tablets and anything that can access the internet. I've been addicted to way too many different internet activities: Reddit, TV, Instagram, Twitter, Hackernews, product reviews, trav... |
d7260b5a-929a-4c12-8f9f-103c8d480e6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When is reward ever the optimization target?
Alright, I have a question stemming from TurnTrout's post on Reward is not the optimization target, where he argues that the premises that are required to get to the conclusion of reward being the optimization target are so narrowly applicable as to not apply to future RL A... |
31f6a39e-0320-4965-8113-b2c73705475f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | TikTok Recommendation Algorithm Optimizations
Update 2020-06-07: I have done more in-depth investigations into TikTok, whose results can be found at tiktokodds.com.
Summary
The communities I am part of rely heavily on longform text for communication. The world seems to be moving away from text (and especially longfo... |
fc11e303-c256-41f7-9dd5-68d9f8d393e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ukraine Post #11: Longer Term Predictions
The pace of these Ukraine posts is slowing down, and will probably slow further if things go as I expect them to go. Given how much slower things are going, this will likely be my last update on Ukraine for a few weeks.
I did want to record how various things are tracking for... |
dbe76292-2080-4e86-9574-858f749c3428 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tall tales and long odds
> IgorV: Волчар с миней?! Bro, srsly? LMAO
>
> KatyaL: Волчар возвращн? With its минй?!
>
> randomguy1337: Chigura again? lol haven't herd in awhile
>
> MishaD: So its all bout Chigura now? Lmaoo.
>
> IgorV: Another Chigura thery? C'mon... 😂
>
> fnorsch: Pryidite k nashemu Discordu dlya ... |
d44c8309-cf47-4860-8e78-cdc985ff4c5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down)
Today's post, Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down) was originally published on 20 September 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> When it seems like an experiment that's been cited does not provide enough support for the interpretati... |
239f54a6-781c-4c86-a104-929da73121d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group Rationality Diary, May 1-15
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for May 1-15.
> It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
>
> * Established a useful new habit
> * Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some belief
>... |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.