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89b5cde0-36b9-4fc5-86c8-142fb0a3910f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has the Symbol Grounding Problem just gone away?
A few years ago, the symbol grounding problem was widely considered a significant challenge in AI discussions. I believed that it would likely be addressed as a side effect of capability improvements, without requiring specific breakthroughs or attention, unlike others ... |
23839ee0-0e26-40e6-b93a-18741c5a4a52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disappointing Table Refinishing
Shaving cream on a table: good kids activity on a wet day, right?
Unfortunately it turns out our table's finish is alcohol-soluble, and spending a couple hours covered with a high-alcohol foam was not good for it:
The center leaf I made, and is polyurethane, but we decided the... |
fbb4d078-aee5-45f9-ac2a-7ab144148dcf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Betadine oral rinses for covid and other viral infections
Before we get started, this is your quarterly reminder that I have no medical credentials and my highest academic credential is a BA in a different part of biology (with a double major in computer science). In a world with a functional medical system no one wou... |
4d11506f-9db3-4da1-9f3e-473ffd81426e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GiveWell event for SF Bay Area EAs
Passing this announcement along from GiveWell:
> GiveWell is holding an event at our offices in San Francisco for Bay Area residents who are interested in Effective Altruism. The evening will be similar to the research events we hold periodically for GiveWell donors: it will include... |
621e79ec-0026-499a-bcdc-bceed5ac8f23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemological Vigilance for Alignment
This post is part of the work done at Conjecture.
Nothing hampers Science and Engineering like unchecked assumptions.
As a concrete example of a field ridden with hidden premises, let's look at sociology. Sociologist must deal with the feedback of their object of study (people... |
9529be0b-4fe6-48ed-b171-c56888c832bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do we already have right?
I was just wondering. Human minds are messed up in 1001 ways, but are there a few rational principles that most people already have down? Of course, the answers to this question are probably so extremely obvious that I haven't even considered them. But I ask all the same. |
bd467f82-e640-43c8-b655-175ebd530752 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Can You Upload Your Mind & Live Forever? From Kurzgesagt - In a Nutshell
An interesting video on mind uploading from almost 2 years ago, focusing on explaining the concept to the wider world. It's fairly simplified, as expected of a video that has to cross large inferential distances, and the Kurzgesagt channel is bas... |
53aa5862-9fae-4ba9-be97-29aa6b7fae12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have the lockdowns been worth it?
There’s been a lot of discussion about whether the pandemic lockdowns have been worth it. However, much of the reasoning that we’ve seen has been very motivated and un-nuanced in a way that for us has distorted a lot of the information.
So this is not a thread for taking a position o... |
57cc01e5-dd7e-41b3-bb97-62d8507f744f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This prompt (sometimes) makes ChatGPT think about terrorist organisations
Yesterday, I couldn't wrap my head around some programming concepts in Python, so I turned to ChatGPT (gpt-4o) for help. This evolved into a very long conversation (the longest I've ever had with it by far), at the end of which I pasted around 6... |
0c7670dd-e93d-4507-88d0-a25cbe5ce731 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tips and Tricks for Answering Hard Questions
I've collected some tips and tricks for answering hard questions, some of which may be original, and others I may have read somewhere and forgotten the source of. Please feel free to contribute more tips and tricks, or additional links to the sources or fuller explanations.... |
8f64fed1-41e2-42b8-a65d-ecfdee42a23d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Time in Agent Models
When programming distributed systems, we always have many computations running in parallel. Our servers handle multiple requests in parallel, perform read and write operations on the database in parallel, etc.
The prototypical headaches of distributed programming involve multiple processe... |
3a3067f7-c62b-47ac-aae8-40e5148b5998 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In the Short-Term, Why Couldn't You Just RLHF-out Instrumental Convergence?
To the question "Do you expect instrumental convergence to become a big pain for AGI labs within the next two years?", about a quarter of the 400 people who answered to the poll I ran said "Yes".
I would like to hear people's thoughts on ho... |
0a96883a-fdff-43d4-9fdf-7588f2dcf578 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A different take on the Musk v OpenAI preliminary injunction order
The judge in the Musk v OpenAI[1] case out of the northern district of California has issued an order on Musk's motion for preliminary injunction, which asked for an order temporarily stopping OpenAI from taking further steps towards its possible conve... |
c4553be3-5de0-4cd1-90ef-f4df81a2ab86 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A Windfall Clause for CEO could worsen AI race dynamics
Summary
-------
This is a response to the [Windfall Clause proposal from Cullen O’Keefe et al](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf), which aims to make AI firms promise to donate a large fraction of profits if they become extre... |
c59b4049-a660-4073-8f1b-534d3cf672a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Basic Problem of Ethics: Panpsychism?
Panpsychism seems like a plausible theory of consciousness. It raises extreme challenges for establishing reasonable ethical criteria.
It seems to suggest that our ethics is very subjective: the "expanding circle" of Peter Singer would eventually (ideally) stretch to encompass... |
ef998cc5-941c-4e43-ae95-ea763abc70e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Machines of Faithful Obedience
[Crossposted on Windows On Theory]
Throughout history, technological and scientific advances have had both good and ill effects, but their overall impact has been overwhelmingly positive. Thanks to scientific progress, most people on earth live longer, healthier, and better than they ... |
f0dd066c-6941-4ce8-9a6c-4a1009a9da94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Look Inside a Frequentist
Today I experienced the Sequences post Beautiful Probability for the first time. I will begin by quoting the quotation that Eliezer began with:
> Let me introduce this issue by borrowing a complaint of the late great Bayesian Master, E. T. Jaynes (1990):
>
> "Two medical researchers use t... |
1477093f-dcdb-4704-bdf0-655f19766171 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] A Turing test for free will
Seth Lloyd has posted a well-written pre-print, proposing a self-administered Turing test for free will but also dealing with some other aspects of the free will debate. Some excerpts:
> ... the theory of computation implies that even when our decisions arise from a completely deter... |
84971841-8430-4cee-83b6-bdc43f2ab680 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Maker of MIND
After my first rebirth - my mind labile, full of that indescribable sense of renewal, everything new again, everything fresh, everything tinged with a subtle hilarity - I assisted Bartosz Sumner, now rather well-known in some parts as the author of The Making of MIND.
Bart had lived many more lives... |
5fcb5529-e2a3-4454-a586-6ff68893c464 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow meetup: discussion on community evolution; power and culture talk; rational games
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow meetup: discussion on community evolution; power and culture talk; rational games
WHEN: 23 November 2015 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: ул. Большая Дорогомиловская, д.5к2
Regular b... |
37e9dec3-ef07-491c-a0d7-eaa72827b116 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Data, Architecture, or Losses: What Contributes Most to Multimodal Transformer Success?
The ability to ground language to vision is a fundamental aspect of real-world AI systems; it is useful across a range of tasks (*e.g.*, visual question answering) and applications (*e.g.*, generating descriptions for visually impa... |
6e869199-bd4d-4ed3-9909-ed92fca9c752 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kantian baby rats
I've often wished for a list of cases where philosophy has proven useful, or has at least anticipated science in drawing correct conclusions. Here's one for the list:
The June 18 2010 Science has two very similar articles on how rat brains represent space. Both conclude that the brain already repr... |
c82981a6-08c5-4abb-bc69-540cf00b7e71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Variance Indifferent Maximizer Alternative
TLDR
This post explores creating an agent which tries to make a certain number of paperclips without caring about the variance in the number it produces, only the expected value. This may be safer than one which wants to reduce the variance, since humans are a large source ... |
a563e763-d544-4c9f-b721-8a3d0e2b651c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | 0.999...=1
Although some people find it counterintuitive, the [decimal expansions](https://arbital.com/p/4sl) $0.999\dotsc$ and $1$ represent the same [https://arbital.com/p/-4bc](https://arbital.com/p/-4bc).
# Informal proofs
These "proofs" can help give insight, but be careful; a similar technique can "prove" that... |
b08efadb-3350-4f84-814e-207c8d7aec90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 36: Status Differentials
Wrenching disorientation, that was how it felt to walk out of Platform Nine and Three-Quarters into the rest of Earth, the world that Harry had once thought was the only real world. People dressed in casual shirts and pants, instead of the more dignified robes of wizards and witches. S... |
86faf473-0e94-4d47-8935-9a22636e2748 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Books on evolution of conscience
I am looking for books on evolution of conscience. Please suggest. I searched but nothing good came out.
I don't know if this is the right place for such requests.
If this is not the right place, pls tell me, i will delete this post.
Thanks.
|
ce6a2d9f-63b0-483b-9586-9b795e64f847 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How long should I delay my second shot?
I got my first shot of Pfizer. They automatically scheduled my second appointment for 3 weeks later, but I canceled it, with the plan to reschedule some other time. Two reasons for this: first, while I can't unilaterally impose First Doses First, I can at least impose First Do... |
058f9cb1-9f85-4248-a156-4004def50d3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should effective altruism be more "cool"?
As a recent entrant to the sphere of rationality and effective altruism, I often wonder if the primarily-nerdy audience & community (which I adore) is less than a boon to the objectives of effective altruism.
If a popularization (through social media platforms such as TikTok)... |
417e1e41-0f53-4b36-b9ff-94c7a92f6d6f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Implications of AGI on Subjective Human Experience
**Introduction**
================
Humanity is heading towards unprecedented circumstances in a destined rendezvous of two distinct forces. The continuation of artificial intelligence (AI) development toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) at the current rate an... |
3e59ea4f-85f4-454e-9a5d-dab42c4f0c6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Newcomblike problem: Counterfactual Informant
I want to propose a variant of the Counterfactual Mugging problem discussed here. BE CAREFUL how you answer, as it has important implications, which I will not reveal until the known dumb humans are on record.
Here is the problem:
Clipmega is considering whether to reve... |
b69120da-5181-4725-872f-3436c80e4ad5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Offenders' deadly thoughts may hold answer to reducing crime
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7b08b02f-5db3-4b49-8f27-af9916a0858b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Algo trading is a central example of AI risk
I suspect this observation is far from original, but I didn't see it explicitly said anywhere, so it seemed worthwhile spelling it out.
The paperclip maximizer is a popular example of unfriendly AI, however it's not the most realistic one (obviously it wasn't meant to be).... |
3b1e415b-17dc-4482-a87a-964f65b0f532 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | White House Announces "New Actions to Promote Responsible AI Innovation"
Highlights
==========
* Vice President Kamala Harris will be meeting with officials from Alphabet, Anthropic, Microsoft, and OpenAI to "emphasize the importance of driving responsible, trustworthy, and ethical innovation with safeguards that mit... |
c0f4e5c9-0a28-4b53-81e8-1336225da130 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wednesday 7pm
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wednesday 7pm
WHEN: 02 November 2011 07:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: Bean Cycle, 144 North College Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80524
Another week, another weekly meetup. Stay warm with community, now that w... |
f639f2db-2705-43df-a033-fab7a2dd1f31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weather and climate forecasting: how the challenges differ by time horizon
Prelude: Climate change, in particular the question of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is both an intellectually complex and a politically loaded topic. Politics has been called the mind-killer here. For a mix of both reasons (the intellectu... |
bd7816d5-fd40-459d-8c47-a4b1425d2388 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mark Manson and Rationality
As those of you on the Less Wrong chat may know, Mark Manson is my favourite personal development author. I thought I'd share those articles that are most related to rationality, as I figured that they would have the greatest chance of being appreciated.
Immediately after writing this a... |
51e3c572-5468-4ca6-9d35-9f6cedeeae39 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Inverse reinforcement learning for video games
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep reinforcement learning has achieved great success at optimizing known reward functions in a range of challenging environments.
However, designing an appropriate reward function is difficult even for experienced engineers, and is impo... |
8db157ec-5dff-474b-aebf-386f652f7834 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] Etzioni: AI will empower us, not exterminate us
https://medium.com/backchannel/ai-wont-exterminate-us-it-will-empower-us-5b7224735bf3
(Slashdot discussion: http://tech.slashdot.org/story/14/12/10/1719232/ai-expert-ai-wont-exterminate-us----it-will-empower-us)
Not sure what the local view of Oren Etzioni or th... |
aa08d8cc-b7ab-4555-bcc3-18facff53161 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Elon Musk is wrong: Robotaxis are stupid. We need standardized rented autonomous tugs to move customized owned unpowered wagons.
Sorry for the flashy headline, but I genuinely feel this might be the best idea I ever had.
After the invention of the horseless carriage, it supposedly took people years to realize that wi... |
b153be8a-ba4f-4795-aa9a-f3b6b9b36170 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Meta-Learning: A Survey
1 Introduction
---------------
When we learn new skills, we rarely - if ever - start from scratch. We start from skills learned earlier in related tasks, reuse approaches that worked well before, and focus on what is likely worth trying based on experience (Lake et al., [2017](#bib.bib87)). ... |
c6641644-3228-4416-a290-7752198b95c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Complexity of Decentralized Control of Markov Decision Processes
1. Introduction. Markov decision processes (MDPs) have received considerable attention, and there exist well-known algorithms for finding optimal control strategies in the case where a process is centrally controlled and the controller (or agent) has... |
765c2ab2-869e-4064-a961-f5b213b5030a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Case for AI Optimism
This is a very comprehensive article sharing what could be considered a minority point of view for Less Wrong readers.
The article is very comprehensive, I suggest that if you are well versed in AI and labor economics, start reading from the New Work section. |
a95628d3-27a5-4ebe-a7e5-4409c1f767b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trying harder works, sometimes
It seems to be commonly accepted that pressing the "Try Harder" button does not work. While I agree with this in general, I would argue that there are edge cases where trying harder is a valid option.
To illustrate this, is a story: of science, and how I used it to change a particularly... |
dcdf31b5-010e-49c1-a5a9-f3548c717784 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-confidence and status
I've seen the advice "be (more) confident" given so that the person may become more socially successful. For example self-confident get more raises. But I'm not sure if self-confidence is the cause of becoming more socially successful, or the result of it. I don't think self-confidence can b... |
29a8c647-e942-4cac-a947-098754c7ca48 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Motivating Abstraction-First Decision Theory
Let’s start with a prototypical embedded decision theory problem: we run two instances of the same “agent” from the same source code and in the same environment, and the outcome depends on the choices of both agents; both agents have full knowledge of the setup.
 I wrote in July 2017, at Nick Beckstead’s request, as part of a conversation we were having at the time. From my current vantage point, it strikes me as narrow and ob... |
5b35a425-d25a-489b-808b-c61902271b32 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Difficulty of Predicting the Maximum of Gaussians
Suppose that we have a random variable , such that ![\mathbb{E}[XX^{\top}] = I_{d \times d}](https://s0.wp.com/latex.php?latex=%5Cmathbb%7BE%7D%5BXX%... |
f7cc162d-0204-4b47-b3c6-50a0b344a247 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fragile Universe Hypothesis and the Continual Anthropic Principle - How crazy am I?
Personal Statement
I like to think about big questions from time to time. A fancy that quite possibly causes me more harm than good. Every once in a while I come up with some idea and wonder "hey, this seems pretty good, I wonder if an... |
2ba29a68-b989-497f-9728-11d01d75fcec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI’s August 2014 newsletter
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[Machine Intelligence Research Institute](http://intelligence.org)
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Dear friends,
Our [summe... |
089fe18f-de7d-4874-ab92-a76b9347005b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interested in Cognitive Bootcamp?
I'm running more 4-day "Cognitive Bootcamps" over the next couple months (during Lighthaven Eternal September season). DM me if you're potentially interested (either as an individual, or as a team).
The workshop is most valuable to people who:
* control their decisionmaking process... |
9491b6a8-99c9-49dd-91f6-7d19acf806e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | lessannoying.org
What does it mean? |
b9fe0a58-3c60-44a6-bf88-c6ecce5dbc01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2023-06-07
Announcements & opportunities
* UK Great Stagnation summit in July, apply to attend (via @s8mb)
* Help Bryan Bishop create an enzyme that makes DNA based on digital instructions
* The Cybersecurity Grant Program, $1M for AI-based cybersecurity (from @OpenAI)
* Foundations & Fr... |
e29943e7-c045-49a6-9723-90dae4daf88b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Epistemology vs Popper
I was directed to this book (http://www-biba.inrialpes.fr/Jaynes/prob.html) in conversation here:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/3ox/bayesianism_versus_critical_rationalism/3ug7?context=1#3ug7
I was told it had a proof of Bayesian epistemology in the first two chapters. One of the thin... |
86c4dda1-6182-478b-bb44-baa542c85b13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Valentine’s Day Gift That Saves Lives
This is mainly of interest to Effective Altruism-aligned Less Wrongers. Thanks to Agnes Vishnevkin, Jake Krycia, Will Kiely, Jo Duyvestyn, Alfredo Parra, Jay Quigley, Hunter Glenn, and Rhema Hokama for looking at draft versions of this post. At least one aspiring rationalist w... |
913ae624-1cd7-481e-82e7-8a0be8cf33ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | cancer rates after gene therapy
Here's a new paper on cancer developing in patients after receiving gene therapy with eli-cel, brand name Skysona.
What is eli-cel?
Stem cells are isolated and modified by using a lentiviral vector to add the ABCD1 gene. The stem cells in bone marrow are killed with chemotherapy, and ... |
c55475f9-149f-4c4f-9eea-6ae7ce7ea320 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does knowing the heritability of a trait tell me in practice?
The concept of heritability gets misunderstood a lot, so there are several articles discussing what it doesn't mean. But reading through all of them leaves me confused about what it does mean in practical terms, outside the technical definition.
For e... |
69851485-5cf6-4042-8105-a44108e11a65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Oliver Sipple
The other day I read Wikipedia arguably too much, and consequently came to know the story of Oliver Sipple. Here’s my summary of the story according to these two Wikipedia pages and this page:
In the September of 1975, Oliver (‘Billy’) Sipple was an ex-marine of thirty-three, injured in Vietnam and livi... |
a4ac4011-5182-431c-905b-7d21ac92ffc2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra Secular Solstice
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra Secular Solstice
WHEN: 18 December 2016 05:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Nara Peace Park, Canberra
Canberra’s first secular solstice celebration! Of course picnicking is an excellent way to celebrate, bring a dish! Preferably vegetarian/vegan/... |
ba130e2f-046d-44b6-ab23-b6a4afd1a2f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reasonable Requirements of any Moral Theory
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ca1b5324-790c-4aa7-8034-3e282cd5195d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A conversation about cooking, science, and creativity
My girlfriend is a creative cook, and worked in the Portland food industry - renowned for its innovation by small kitchens - for ten years. I'm interested in creativity in scientific research. Where does it come from?
Furthermore, what is the relationship between ... |
01ac113d-d299-47be-97f4-fa37b5e35305 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The non-painless upload
I have been trying to absorb the Lesswrong near-consensus on cryonics/quantum mechanics/uploading, and I confess to being unpersuaded by it. I'm not hostile to cryonics; just indifferent, and having a bit of trouble articulating why the insights on identity that I have been picking up from t... |
1894890f-d26c-454d-bb84-c9b13fd69c93 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | CURIOUS: Intrinsically Motivated Modular Multi-Goal Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
In *autonomous continual learning*, agents must evolve in an open-ended, changing world and might face a variety of potential tasks. In such a realistic environment, tasks cannot always be pre-specified by engi... |
31ee7116-25d2-46b7-a140-a9f7165ec9ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gödel's Legacy: A game without end
Cross-posted at Brick. A fun exploration, hopefully requiring only a medium level of technical familiarity.
"Not with a bang but a whimper"
It's 1930 and Kurt Gödel has just delivered a talk at Königsberg that carpet bombed Hilbert's Program.
...and no one noticed.
> Godel's an... |
0e0274c2-c3da-4da3-8781-53712f11ac4e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | AvE: Assistance via Empowerment
1 Introduction
---------------
We aim to enable artificial agents, whether physical or virtual, to assist humans in a broad array of tasks. However, training an agent to provide assistance is challenging when the human’s goal is unknown because that makes it unclear what the agent sh... |
298fb2d1-62a4-4129-be32-8a5958fc3c1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Cognitive bias modification as a treatment for depression
This seems relevant to LessWrong, both as an extreme example of how biases can hurt people and as a possible rationality technique. Depression is presumably at the outer end of some spectrum; to the extent that it's caused by cognitive mistakes, people i... |
a01494cb-3cc6-4a46-b926-ad9d2af5f009 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misaligned AGI Death Match
Here’s my very raw, very unpolished idea of how to use the AI-in-the-box scenario to possibly solve AI alignment. It’s propably inadequate in its current form, and I didn’t even try to meticulously apply the security mindset to every step (I’m not sure I have it anyway), but maybe someone mo... |
dfabd69b-082a-4248-b118-0203f5dc36e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trade makes you responsible, but why?
It’s supposedly bad to exploit poor people by paying them as little as you can get away with in trade.
Onlookers who don’t offer the needy anything condemn those who offer some non altruistic benefit through trade because it isn’t enough. It’s interesting that we see this as a fa... |
89131b72-52fc-436b-9662-4363a3164ed0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | At what point should CFAR stop holding workshops due to COVID-19?
What information about the virus' nature and spread would cause you to believe it's too risky to continue holding workshops? |
e2f0ad20-15a0-49ac-a017-7eb52b7265ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Aspiration-based designs] Outlook: dealing with complexity
Summary. This teaser post sketches our current ideas for dealing with more complex environments. It will ultimately be replaced by one or more longer posts describing these in more detail. Reach out if you would like to collaborate on these issues.
Multi-di... |
591b2f0e-e2ae-48e0-90ab-26fdfaafcf95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contra: Changing Role Terms
In contra dance there are two roles, which were traditionally called "Ladies" and "Gents". A lot of people are currently trying to move the community over to calling the roles "Robins" and "Larks", to make it clear that anyone can dance either role. BIDA, the dance I help organize, switched... |
8bb81d92-b776-4c12-a5d0-9c8c197722a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One weird trick to turn maximisers into minimisers
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
A simple and easy design for a u-maximising agent that turns into a u-minimising one.
Let X be some boolean random variable outside the agent's control, that will be determined at some future time t (based on a cosmic ... |
53acd5dd-49ac-470c-9282-db83f2148e97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mailing List for Digitized Belief Network Discussion
Hi all,
This is a follow-up to a previous post of mine - 'A digitized belief network?'.
I have now created a discussion group for anyone who wants to discuss the problems involved in creating a digital representation of a human's beliefs. Anyone who is interested ... |
94cacb60-183e-4a87-8896-eaeef60fa69c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NPR show All Things Considered on the Singularity and SIAI
The NPR show All Things Considered did a short story on the Singularity, including interviews with Eliezer Yudkowsky and others involved with SIAI:
http://www.npr.org/2011/01/11/132840775/The-Singularity-Humanitys-Last-Invention |
297cd8dc-a0de-4287-b81b-acc401fa2a62 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | On the Veracity of Local, Model-agnostic Explanations in Audio Classification: Targeted Investigations with Adversarial Examples
1 Introduction
---------------
With the rise of deep learning methods used in Music Information Retrieval (MIR), also the desire for explaining the decisions made by such models has incre... |
01f58038-3bc1-4347-9afe-962a10a773ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] RSA Animate: extremely entertaining LW-relevant cartoons
It's a brilliant idea: a lecture by a cool modern thinker, illustrated by word-by-word doodles on a whiteboard. Excellent at pulling you along the train of thought and absolutely disallowing boredom.
The lectures' content is pretty great too, although th... |
954af5b5-3959-4e3d-b455-c40ffe49cf30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Concrete Proposal for Adversarial IDA
Note: This post came out of a conversation with Geoffrey Irving and Buck Shlegeris.
Epistemic Status: I suspect Paul has already thought of most or all of the ideas presented here, though I nevertheless found the exercise of carefully specifying an IDA implementation helpful an... |
1ec14d30-e3be-4928-aa3a-48427fc37873 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Perfect Competition
Previously in Immoral Mazes sequence: Moloch Hasn’t Won
Perfect Competition
In Meditations on Moloch, Scott points out that perfect competition destroys all value beyond the axis of competition.
Which, for any compactly defined axis of competition we know about, destroys all value.
This is math... |
cb8a93b8-2734-4323-b0de-3db62741b98d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Safety without Alignment: How humans can WIN against AI
Here are some ideas on how we can restrict Super-human AI (SAI) **without built-in Alignment**:
Overall idea:
=============
We need to use unbreakable first principles, especially laws of physics to restrict or destroy SAI. We can leverage the **asymmetries ... |
e88169e9-703c-421a-8f48-61496b9d5b3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Snyder-Beattie, Sandberg, Drexler & Bonsall (2020): The Timing of Evolutionary Transitions Suggests Intelligent Life Is Rare
Copying over Anders Sandberg's Twitter summary of the paper:
> There is life on Earth but this is not evidence for life being common in the universe! This is since observing life requires livin... |
f446ba23-fd11-4d02-9825-e46c0563a73c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Philanthropy Technical AI Safety RFP - $40M Available Across 21 Research Areas
Open Philanthropy is launching a big new Request for Proposals for technical AI safety research, with plans to fund roughly $40M in grants over the next 5 months, and available funding for substantially more depending on application qu... |
0747df7c-9153-4478-8313-a62ba637148c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measuring Optimization Power
Previously in series: Aiming at the Target
Yesterday I spoke of how "When I think you're a powerful intelligence, and I think I know something about your preferences, then I'll predict that you'll steer reality into regions that are higher in your preference ordering."
You can quantify ... |
801f7a50-66a7-47f8-8e9c-f470c91f1275 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Manhattan project for aligned AI
One possible thing that I imagine might happen, conditional on an existential catastrophe not occurring, is a Manhattan project for aligned AGI. I don’t want to argue that this is particularly likely or desirable. The point of this post is to sketch the scenario, and briefly discuss so... |
1f84b13f-64e7-4c7b-abc1-3a7f06fa745c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantum Decisions
CFAR sometimes plays a Monday / Tuesday game (invented by palladias). Copying from the URL:
> On Monday, your proposition is true. On Tuesday, your proposition is false. Tell me a story about each of the days so I can see how they are different. Don't just list the differences (because you're alread... |
fdbb84aa-f5f4-4544-913a-b020a9c73251 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | All AGI Safety questions welcome (especially basic ones) [April 2023]
tl;dr: Ask questions about AGI Safety as comments on this post, including ones you might otherwise worry seem dumb!
Asking beginner-level questions can be intimidating, but everyone starts out not knowing anything. If we want more people in the wor... |
14a19ec4-4892-496b-ae23-c95fa05c5502 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Readiness Heuristics
Followup to: How Much Thought
A trolley is hurtling towards three people. It will kill them, unless you pull a lever that diverts it onto a different track. However, if you do this, it will hit a small child and kill her. Do you pull the lever, and kill a child, or do nothing, and let three adult... |
066dbf38-ab38-43a8-9d3d-c456fbcbea80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Vitalik Buterin Fellowship in AI Existential Safety is open for applications!
This is a linkpost for[https://grants.futureoflife.org/](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgrants.futureoflife.org%2F)
*Epistemic status: Describing the fellowship that we are a part of and sharing some suggestio... |
9c0360fd-6eef-4d21-9ab5-64bf5edb9a77 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Nuclear brinksmanship is not a good AI x-risk strategy
In a [recent article](https://web.archive.org/web/20230330001659/https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/), Eliezer Yudkowsky advocates for the following measures to stop AI development:
> Shut down all the large GPU clusters (the la... |
5e0e1150-099b-41ac-88b3-c7b6bf116878 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #71: Farewell to Chevron
Chevron deference is no more. How will this impact AI regulation?
The obvious answer is it is now much harder for us to ‘muddle through via existing laws and regulations until we learn more,’ because the court narrowed our affordances to do that. And similarly, if and when Congress does pa... |
ad51de4a-69ce-4931-aa05-f5d3ac82ccf4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If a little is good, is more better?
I’ve recently seen a bunch of discussions of the wisdom of publicly releasing the weights1 of advanced AI models. A common argument form that pops up in these discussions is this:
1. The problem with releasing weights is that it means that thing X can happen on a large scale, whi... |
45f14ca8-3620-4a90-a3d8-9f84ab34408e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are meaningful careers a cover story?
It is more respectable to have a non-altruistic hobby than to have a non-altruistic job. If I say to a public servant that their career doesn’t make the world a better place, I’m being offensive. If I say to a chess player that their hobby doesn’t make the world a better place, th... |
0e568fc1-c388-4703-a6d0-bf9d5305fe96 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Problem relaxation as a tactic
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; ... |
fa1d711e-1c07-4660-9bbf-c9a03ec29cf2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Busy Bee Brain
An old post from New Savanna.
> With artificial neural nets (ANNs) all over the place these days, this post from March, 2013, warrants a bump to the top of the queue. Perhaps the chief difference between real brains and ANNs is the fact that each neuron in a real brain is a living agent, albeit of... |
162adfdd-0ed1-4e7e-a9ad-9ac282552870 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The value of x-risk reduction
In his interview on the 80000 hours podcast after the publication of the Precipice, Toby Ord claimed that x-risk reduction was worth pursing regardless of weather x-risk was high or low. The claim is that when x-risk is low, it's worth working on x-risk because a small decline in the pro... |
876f53d0-8d17-47cd-8648-24d16cebfb0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stabilizing logical counterfactuals by pseudorandomization
Previously, we discussed the construction of logical counterfactuals in the language of optimal predictors. These counterfactuals were found to be well-behaved when a certain non-degeneracy condition is met which can be understood as a bound on the agent's abi... |
e40fe1d2-e5da-4e37-a6bf-fd45bf233db7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment Newsletter #46
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of al... |
8037668a-0182-48f5-91af-82f1e325d151 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Belief in religion considered harmful?
I've recently run across this 2007 post on the blog Unqualified Reservations (archive best read here). It is written by Mencious Moldbug, who is probably familiar to some Overcoming Bias and Lesswrong readers. He is a erudite, controversial and most of all contrarian socia... |
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