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55687c67-f28d-4e5c-b104-41479b86c450 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The evaluation function of an AI is not its aim
I think this is a relatively straightforward point, but it's one that I think has definitely led to confused thinking on my part about AI alignment, and presumably on others. After writing this post Ruby pointed out there's an entire sequence on this. However I think thi... |
d7bbf317-9d5b-4829-97f9-d10d39959074 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Carpe Diem: The Problem of Scarcity and Abundance
Previously: Carpe Diem: The Optimization Game: Level 1
One of my goals with Carpe Diem was to illustrate the value of flexibility and optionality, and the surprisingly high cost of scarcity. A simple plan for playing the game is to maintain an exchange rate between ti... |
e38f6d8f-a629-4cf0-aa0e-ae372a29f818 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing Squiggle Hub
Very simple example, for demonstration
Overview
Squiggle Hub is a platform for the creation and sharing of code written in Squiggle. As with Squiggle, Squiggle Hub is free and open-source.
As a refresher, Squiggle is a simple programming language for probabilistic estimation that runs on ... |
04ec64e4-414d-4911-9795-73c989541f28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ape Constraint discussion meeting.
*The chair of the meeting approached the podium and coughed to get everyone's attention*
Welcome colleagues, to the 19th annual meeting of the human-ape study society. Our topic this year is the Ape Constraint.
As we are all too aware, the apes are our Friends. We know this... |
fee0feac-bb36-45a8-b870-fa894eb20310 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Checking public figures on whether they "answered the question" quick analysis from Harris/Trump debate, and a proposal
Public figures often avoid answering a question; going off in a different direction without recognizing that they didn't answer it. (Sometimes they even say 'I answered your question' even though th... |
a231e52f-69cc-4f1b-86e9-72e827b4242b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Modeling naturalized decision problems in linear logic
The following is a model of a simple decision problem (namely, the 5 and 10 problem) in linear logic. Basic familiarity with linear logic is assumed (enough to know what it means to say linear logic is a resource logic), although knowing all the operators isn't ne... |
f6a33d41-b266-429a-8bf7-8112be364e6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Test meetup please ignore
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore
WHEN: 27 March 2017 11:18:40AM (-0700)
WHERE: antartica
sorry
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore |
d3a14741-b702-43d8-ad5e-28531ac58d5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Premature death paradox
There seems to be a paradox about premature death. (Or at least, I am confused about it - perhaps due to ignorance of philosophy of death, or some related paradoxes, e.g. about time.)
Thinking e.g. of COVID-19, what makes potentially fatal illnesses bad is not that they kill people, or increas... |
de7546ca-eb3d-4f1e-b309-fdb405e4d459 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introductory Short Videos
Most people new to the Less Wrong community start out by reading the Sequences. There are also lists out there of highly recommended text books, pop sci books, and articles.
However these avenues can take a LOT of time, and not everyone learns best by reading. I am interested in putting toge... |
4dfd914a-6e1f-4673-8cb5-d6f78f52c21d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Test
asf bold asf |
d5c318a6-52f2-4ed9-b5b8-d64170bb96ea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Löb's theorem and computer programs
The close relationship between [logic and computability](https://arbital.com/p/) allows us to frame Löb's theorem in terms of a computer program which is systematically looking for proofs of mathematical statements, `ProofSeeker(X)`.
ProofSeeker can be something like this:
Pro... |
96b10e37-8f08-49c6-a98f-b7a554abda78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predicting AI Releases Through Side Channels
I recently explored whether we could predict major AI releases by analyzing the Twitter activity of OpenAI's red team members. While the results weren't conclusive, I wanted to share this approach in case it inspires others to develop it further.
The Core Idea
The idea ca... |
fa393307-5a14-4af6-93ec-c5c4795023a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Film about TransHuman Enterprises
More of a Robin Hanson thing than a lesswrong thing, but these are sister blogs (sibling blogs?) and Robin's has no forum for discussion.
Amused to learn a play had been written and staged with Eliezer Yudkowski in its title, I searched to find info on this. The play is by Robert... |
1b812d28-0b58-4e10-ab56-93af4c3ce269 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Noise on the Channel
Articulation of these ideas in their present form owes a debt to interactions with Tsvi Benson-Tilsen, and Erin Tatum.
Almost everyone will be familiar with the concept of signal vs noise. Literally, it's a signal processing concept which differentiates useful information which we're trying to co... |
d8061285-911e-4e7f-9c97-45ad0efd8d4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Origin of Consciousness Reading Companion, Part 1
Cross-posted, as always, from Putanumonit.
----------------------------------------
As I threatened two weeks ago, the Bicameral Book Club met for its first session to discuss the first few chapters of The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral... |
665c86bc-0470-4353-947f-da51b86282c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Framing AI strategy
Strategy is the activity or project of doing research to inform interventions to achieve a particular goal.1 AI strategy is strategy from the perspective that AI is important, focused on interventions to make AI go better. An analytic frame is a conceptual orientation that makes salient some aspect... |
6ce15ea1-7b64-4c5a-a36a-b2c88fd70344 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What precautions should fully-vaccinated people still be taking?
(UPDATE 9/6/21: now that more is known about the Delta variant, I'm being more conservative than I articulated below, and managing to a weekly risk budget of 400 microcovids. The main difference beyond what I articulated below is that I'm no longer inter... |
058cac37-6251-48dd-8c4c-8736fdaff9b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like
In 2021 I wrote what became my most popular blog post: What 2026 Looks Like. I intended to keep writing predictions all the way to AGI and beyond, but chickened out and just published up till 2026.
Well, it's finally time. I'm back, and this time I have a team with me: the A... |
e04c4892-12aa-407f-a557-8e6185cdb84a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Podcast: From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Complex Systems
I appear on Patrick McKenzie's Complex Systems podcast, presenting my overall view of what's wrong in the world of drug development.
Here's a section I particularly enjoyed:
----------------------------------------
Patrick McKenzie: So, ... |
6cb7cb02-6b43-4225-a61d-d4440f876a81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Best of Don’t Worry About the Vase
Hello everyone! This is going to be a bit of a housekeeping post and a welcome to new subscribers.
Note that this is not the primary version of my writing, which can be found on Substack, but it is a full copy of all posts found there.
My writing can be intimidating. There is a... |
902c9d9f-b29c-4130-9d3e-58737091a498 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Distance from Harvard
Related: Loss of local knowledge affecting intellectual trends, The Hyborian Age
This post is from Gregory Cochran's and Henry Harpending's excellent blog West Hunter.
> Barry Marshall once said that if he had gone to Harvard, he would have known that stomach ulcers were caused by stress... |
818c0692-7a63-4c1b-8f5e-8524a06c6e69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : South Bay Meetup: Be Specific
Discussion article for the meetup : South Bay Meetup: Be Specific
WHEN: 19 March 2013 07:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 278 Castro St, Mountain View, CA
"Being specific" doesn't seem like a skill that we can say much about, in the abstract. (Though this post does anyway.) Nonetheless,... |
5680bacd-b72f-4a02-868c-dc8e640e2ebe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Q&A with experts on risks from AI #2
[Click here to see a list of all interviews]
I am emailing experts in order to raise and estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI.
(Note: I am also asking Reinforcement Learning / Universal AI researchers, teams like the one that build IBM Watson, organisat... |
b62970b1-b10d-4258-a3b7-f96a6952195f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You'll die if you do that
> "They told me that if I ever turned this flashlight on, I would die! They told me that about everything! I mean, I don't even know why they bothered giving me this stuff if they didn't want me to use it."
>
> -- Wheatley, Portal 2
Today I received some shoes in the post, which included a ... |
9b0400fc-4ffa-4cea-bc94-8bcd57b53bbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much friendliness is enough?
According to Eliezer, making AI safe requires solving two problems:
1) Formalize a utility function whose fulfillment would constitute "good" to us. CEV is intended as a step toward that.
2) Invent a way to code an AI so that it's mathematically guaranteed not to change its goals aft... |
3c6a99fc-1464-4e95-a8eb-aa260b8a2cc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Hostile Arguer
“Your instinct is to talk your way out of the situation, but that is an instinct born of prior interactions with reasonable people of good faith, and inapplicable to this interaction…” – Ken White
One of the Less Wrong Study Hall denizens has been having a bit of an issue recently. He became an ath... |
6a9ae111-ac24-4a19-ac6e-b477febf4a03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a place to find the most cited LW articles of all time?
I expect it would be useful when developing an understanding of the language used on LW. |
0bc6c3e5-6d69-4e5d-ae40-c8738e30afa4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Linkpost] "Governance of superintelligence" by OpenAI
OpenAI has a new [blog post](https://openai.com/blog/governance-of-superintelligence) out titled "Governance of superintelligence" (subtitle: "Now is a good time to start thinking about the governance of superintelligence—future AI systems dramatically more capabl... |
4af80520-1abf-4589-bbe2-e6b0aa32d640 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Outside View's Domain
Followup to: The Planning Fallacy
Plato's Phaedo:
> "The state of sleep is opposed to the state of waking; and out of sleeping, waking is generated; and out of waking, sleeping; and the process of generation is in the one case falling asleep, and in the other waking up. Do you agree?"... |
132c588d-7503-4d0b-8457-e961607ccab7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Cryptographic Boxes for Unfriendly AI
**Related to:** [Shut up and do the impossible!](/lw/up/shut_up_and_do_the_impossible/); Everything about an AI in a box.
One solution to the problem of friendliness is to develop a self-improving, unfriendly AI, put it in a box, and ask it to make a friendly AI for us. This... |
06f1dbac-2d64-4e4b-9b6d-7712ca5e6bd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Train Your AGI Dragon
Originally mistitled Here Be AGI Dragons, this document has now been moved from the safety section to where it belongs in the "How To" section...
This paper is the first in a series of posts I intend to write about an instructional manifesto for anyone wanting to build an Artificial Gener... |
ba264b4f-4d7d-4ff5-9735-38956e695753 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "In this post, I will try to justify the following claim (which I am not sure how much I believe myself):Let Bob be an individual that I have a lot intellectual respect for. For example, maybe Bob had a history of believing true things long before anyone else, or Bob has a discovered or invented some ideas that I have ... |
4df7f077-f9ae-466e-b565-b31a5dec1378 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Who are we?
I wonder if part of the reason for persistent disagreement on political positions is that people mean quite different things by ‘We’ in sentences like ‘We should do x’. Here are three:
We = ‘the government’
As in, ‘we should control markets to avoid the dangers of their extremes’, ‘we should have discret... |
028b778d-56ef-423e-a960-c57bd30f49c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A little playing around with Blenderbot3
This is just some silly fun at Meta's expense. Me playing around the edges of their safety systems...
blenderbot: Have you been watching any good documentaries lately?
human: Actually, I would like to continue discussing a previous topic which you became distracted from. Our ... |
851ea134-d9f0-4aa3-aab9-38ca54b10800 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | How to Be Helpful to Multiple People at Once
Introduction Consider a schoolteacher trying to plan a field trip. Some students learn best kinetically, others enjoy verbal challenges, and some would be overwhelmed by new locations. If there is no one action that will maximally satisfy everyone, what is the teacher to do... |
e7a77551-e583-4865-8ed9-a8786a057cf8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Preferences Implicit in the State of the World
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) has been shown to succeed at a wide variety of complex tasks given a correctly specified reward function. Unfortunately, for many real-world tasks it can be challenging to specify a reward function th... |
367980a9-408a-498d-aa69-101605509b58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Joscha Bach on Synthetic Intelligence [annotated]
Link to transcript.
The conversation is very dense and there are a lot of interesting ideas that I leave out of the sampling below.
On the difference between sentience (self-awareness) and consciousness
> I think that I usually distinguish between sentience and cons... |
94756b58-0dce-4007-8bab-1306848e8bef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Problems with AI debate
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; directi... |
9c2f729f-34a7-41da-9c1a-2b86211cad98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trying AgentGPT, an AutoGPT variant
I saw this announcement on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/asimdotshrestha/status/1644883727707959296
I gave it a trial run and asked it to Solve the hard AI Alignment problem:
At this point the trial had reached 30 seconds and expired.
I think it is funny that it "thinks" the tas... |
60c17fa4-3966-42fc-9d2a-5011eb9436eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weirdly Long DNS Switchover?
[EDIT: as Jai points out in the FB comments, the problem was likely forgetting IPv6. The AAAA record is now updated, and I should be able to tell in a few hours whether that fixed it.]
I'm helping my dad migrate some code to a new server. It was at 162.209.99.139 for years, but ten days a... |
d7c34fbd-e1b3-470f-ac10-950c25dee5dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Pittsburgh Meetup: Big Gaming Fun 4!
Discussion article for the meetup : Pittsburgh Meetup: Big Gaming Fun 4!
WHEN: 11 March 2012 12:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 1324 Wightman St., Pittsburgh, PA 15217
You can see my game collection here; please bring anything else you'd like to play. We can order food and go as... |
36634855-e184-4511-8555-c6382bf528fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Resolution of Frightening Paradoxes and Inferences
As some of us might be aware, there exist ideas that harm their carriers simply by lingering in awareness. One may wonder if these ideas are just manifestations of Obsessive Compulsive Disorder or other neurosis, but the difference here is the metaphysical natu... |
06150c31-ddda-44e5-9de0-e6408f8a2311 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FixDT
FixDT is not a very new decision theory, but little has been written about it afaict, and it's interesting. So I'm going to write about it.
TJ asked me to write this article to "offset" not engaging with Active Inference more. The name "fixDT" is due to Scott Garrabrant, and stands for "fixed-point decision the... |
62851036-bf76-4f5e-9ac9-d8510d83dd9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do you think you are a Boltzmann brain? If not, why not?
For more on Boltzmann brains, see here. |
afd1af52-86c7-4481-9076-6638447fac7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It's not about truth
A rather sane article about the actual purpose of religions and why they persist among the rational & intelligent.
http://blog.evangelicalrealism.com/2010/12/04/getting-religion/
A bit of a Hansonian bent as well. "Genuine objective truths can be complicated and uncomfortable, but what’s worse, ... |
7bd44b80-05d3-4da0-bd49-b01b4fe60f5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Motivating a Semantics of Logical Counterfactuals
(**Disclaimer:** *This post was written as part of the CFAR/MIRI AI Summer Fellows Program, and as a result is a vocalisation of my own thought process rather than a concrete or novel proposal. However, it is an area of research I shall be pursuing in the coming months... |
70feab5a-89a9-4f58-ace5-5147d3bfa3e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What would a post that argues against the Orthogonality Thesis that LessWrong users approve of look like?
This question is motivated by the following reasons:
Not many pieces exist that argue against the Orthogonality Thesis (on LessWrong, or anywhere, to my knowledge). Of those that do, none have received positive ... |
b63cc3a7-e3f0-4587-99ba-71aca7e533fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bay Winter Solstice 2023: Song & speech auditions
Hello! I'm looking for community members to lead singalongs and read speeches/poems at the Bay Winter Solstice event this year. If you're interested, please either send me your audition recordings by the end of November 14 using the below forms, or sign up for an in-pe... |
d7a5436c-b3a5-4f73-98f1-6538d4827f1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fading Novelty
A core aspect of human experience is our pursuit of novelty. There is something tantalizing about seeking out new pleasures, sensations, and experiences that feels hard-coded into how we operate. “Variety is the spice of life” and all that.
Conversely, things which were once new eventually lose their s... |
51741ddc-3d1e-444f-b90a-49ec56f11126 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Maximal Sentience: A Sentience Spectrum and Test Foundation
Hello! I am writing this post, because I think it is important to get to a definition of sentience good enough to where the level of sentience of a being becomes testable and we can make predictions about how a being with some level of sentience would behave.... |
d0f6b5c6-fd25-4262-acf1-cf423dc508dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Article about Kahneman
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/frontal-cortex/2012/06/daniel-kahneman-bias-studies.html?mobify=0
It doesn't say what happens, if you try to chance the nature of your bias ... |
3dbc18ab-f32d-46a4-9477-74eb445869fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | META: Deletion policy
http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Deletion_policy
This is my attempt to codify the informal rules I've been working by.
I'll leave this post up for a bit, but strongly suspect that it will have to be deleted not too long thereafter. I haven't been particularly encouraged to try responding to comm... |
6b8fb331-e9f1-4985-a512-ea1a8e9aaab7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A vote against spaced repetition
LessWrong seems to be a big fan of spaced-repetition flashcard programs like Anki, Supermemo, or Mnemosyne. I used to be. After using them religiously for 3 years in medical school, I now categorically advise against using them for large volumes of memorization.
[A caveat before peopl... |
91faf23b-c991-4bed-8e40-6130041f60f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EIS XI: Moving Forward
Part 11 of 12 in the Engineer’s Interpretability Sequence.
So far, this sequence has discussed a number of topics in interpretability research, all building toward this post. Its goal is to explain some approaches that may be valuable moving forward. I plan to work on some of the ideas here soo... |
f4a8b98a-db1d-4192-ba07-e13a1167b9c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty: Passing the Benford Test
This post is part of the Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty series. Here, we give the proof that BenfordLearner passes the Benford test.
We start with 2 Lemmas.
**Lemma 1: Let S be an irreducible pattern with probability p, and let Z be a Turing machine such that ... |
3df44ac3-bd90-44d1-aaed-27d50443fa57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : May Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : May Meetup
WHEN: 16 May 2015 03:00:15PM (+0200)
WHERE: Pinakothek der Moderne, Munich
The Meetup on the month of May! As usual, all newcomers are welcome.
Please RSVP on Meetup: http://www.meetup.com/LessWrongMunich/events/222075124/
For this meetup, let's s... |
bcc17442-79af-4c74-b351-4f618b12b969 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The lying p value
Quick check: do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
> If a study finds a result significant at a p=0.05 level, that means they have followed a methodology which produces this conclusion correctly 95 % of the time.
Yes or no? Keep that in mind, and we’ll get back to it.
I’m reading ... |
ec64098e-3e08-40a1-a750-0226ffb893b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Compromising with Compulsion
Xposted from my substack.
Epistemic Status: Highly Speculative, Possibly Useful
Do I contradict myself?
Very well then I contradict myself,
(I am large, I contain multitudes.)
— some guy
Whence arises contradiction? This is an urgent question, especially for the many who sour at Whitma... |
04c51b7b-74c6-46bc-984c-7f721d4a1ab2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Know of any randomised trials teaching debiasing in schools? Want to help review them, or would that review help your work?
Last year Elon Musk tweeted a list of cognitive biases saying they should be be taught at a young age.
He got over 325,000 likes, but is he right? We want to find out.
We're planning a systemat... |
00d10f60-e822-46fa-99b5-e95c3c1842c6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Proposal] Method of locating useful subnets in large models
I’ve seen it suggested (e.g, [here](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SzrmsbkqydpZyPuEh/my-take-on-vanessa-kosoy-s-take-on-agi-safety)) that we could tackle the outer alignment problem by using interpretability tools to locate the learned “human values” s... |
c51822d5-4c59-41d8-b5af-2a22c3cf7c05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moderation of apparent trolling
A brief line from this comment indicates that the author of the cryonics-critical comment quoted here was perhaps not the one that deleted it.
> You know what - I am rather glad my comment was deleted on less wrong - good reason for people not to post on there.
Was it deleted by a mod... |
64fca262-12e6-482c-844c-06f1973c08ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Case Studies Highlighting CFAR’s Impact on Existential Risk
|
c0cfed35-9bf5-4299-8868-c75cebaf0b50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quick Thoughts on Language Models
Epistemic status: Somewhere between Exploratory and My Best Guess. Plenty of other people have written about similar or related ideas, and about alternative or conflicting views.
Epistemic effort: Ideas developed slowly over about 3 years, via learning ML, playing with language model... |
37a22253-91ba-497a-bb61-86e2c8080123 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Phoenix/Tempe Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Phoenix/Tempe Meetup
WHEN: 09 June 2014 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 300 E Orange Mall, Tempe, AZ 85281
Our first meetup of the summer! We'll mostly be catching up with each other and learning about new people!
Discussion article for the meetup : Phoe... |
7aba63cf-bfe0-4cba-9b98-85b93fbf02ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Power of Annealing
Crossposted from mybrainsthoughts.com
Metals are a unique form of matter, especially with regards to their behavior under heating and cooling. While metals are described by the material they’re made of (e.g. copper or iron), their properties are determined by their arrangement of atoms, and thi... |
bb2222a6-e3fa-4da1-88e3-ad9388460e7b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Minetester: A fully open RL environment built on Minetest
In the past several months we’ve seen great strides in the development of language models, especially in the private sector. Last year we saw several Minecraft-based environments released, including ... |
95a8fe57-9263-4d5e-aa57-79bff47ba1f1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Four Articles Added to Research Page
Four older articles have been added to our [research page](http://intelligence.org/research/).
The first is the early draft of Christiano et al.’s “[Definability of ‘Truth’ in Probabilistic Logic](http://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Christiano-et-al-Naturalistic-re... |
376ce798-2bfb-48b5-b57d-4a599b0476c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Filter on the way in, Filter on the way out...
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/filter-on-the-way-in-filter-on-the-way-out/
----------------------------------------
I'd like to quote tact filters by Jeff Bigler:
All people have a "tact filter", which applies tact in one direction to everything that passes thro... |
0cfde677-44fd-4368-b7f0-43cc938c548e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Books/Literature on resolving technical disagreements?
I've seen many books and schools of thought that seem to be about conflict resolution. Books like Crucial Conversations and Non-Violent Communication. There are multiple parties that want different things, there's strong emotional undertones/overtones, and these b... |
97a414ca-dc7a-4d4e-9ce9-03242d925d63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for a quote
The last sentence was something like "I regret that the judgment I made was wrong, not that it was made." I thought it was in one of the Rationality Quotes threads here, but I can't find it with Google. |
c4c2d74b-6ddb-49c0-820b-548f87bf4c64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Step Against Land Value Tax
Introduction
Many Nuance-oors like the promised pragmatic arguments for LVT (densification, lack of deadweight loss) and lament some of the principled arguments against (kicking out grandmas, unbounded gentrification). Here I build the intuition for the economic efficiency of the status q... |
586810b6-8118-4594-9777-55acd9932b18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One example of how LLM propaganda attacks can hack the brain
Disclaimer: This is not a definitive post describing the problem, it is only describing one facet thoroughly, while leaving out many critical components of the problem. Please do not interpret this as a helpful overview of the problem, the list of dynamics h... |
54bcd6f2-6c7f-4e13-8abb-19693f0db4eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sorting Pebbles Into Correct Heaps
Once upon a time there was a strange little species—that might have been biological, or might have been synthetic, and perhaps were only a dream—whose passion was sorting pebbles into correct heaps.
They couldn't tell you why some heaps were correct, and some incorrect. But all of ... |
69e556aa-4946-40eb-9300-3d3fe406c55a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bet on Rare Undesirable Outcomes when Seeding a Prediction Market
Suppose you run an insurance company that insures buildings against burglars. You recently sold insurance to a client with a building in a new city you have never operated in before. You need to know how likely it is for a burglar to break into your cli... |
dea87283-c371-49fc-bba7-47523bcf6703 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thriving in the Weird Times: Preparing for the 100X Economy
Epistemic status: Confident in the general concept, but not in the specific details.
The world is changing fast. As soon as 2026[1], we may experience an exponential increase in personal productivity, intelligence, and overall capacity to influence the world... |
da052ac9-beaa-45a9-aaaa-22a9ee0143a8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | UDT in the Land of Probabilistic Oracles
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; flo... |
be8b2e37-5441-4527-945b-0d4b89d82137 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI AI Predictions Dataset
The MIRI AI predictions dataset is a collection of public predictions about human-level AI timelines. We edited the original dataset, as described below. Our dataset is available [here](https://www.dropbox.com/s/x3737sampmb2e8i/siai-fhi_ai_predictions_KG_amended.xlsx), and the original [her... |
6ed5578f-d557-4ef4-91aa-b287832787b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mainstream Grantmaking Expertise (Post 7 of 7 on AI Governance)
Previously in this sequence, I estimated that we have 3 researchers for every advocate working on US AI governance, and I argued that this ratio is backwards – we need the political power provided by advocates to have a chance of preventing misaligned sup... |
37182a59-6dee-498a-8f06-35f39980c94c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Skill of Noticing Emotions
The Skill of Noticing Emotions
(Thanks to Eli Tyre and Luke Raskopf for helping teach me the technique. And thanks to Nora Ammann, Fin Moorhouse, Ben Laurense, Daniel Hynk, Nathan Young, Toby Jolly, Michael Ng, James Walsh and Jaime Sevilla for feedback on various drafts!)
(For those fa... |
2ae53580-c258-4000-a8ac-52091b75360c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Updatelessness and Son of X
The purpose of this post is to discuss the relationship between the concepts of Updatelessness and the "Son of" operator.
Making a decision theory that is reflectively stable is hard. Most agents would self-modify into a agent if given the chance. For example if a CDT agent knows that it i... |
9254193a-bc33-4f40-a270-c1ac0487a4bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on December 30th. The following week's summary is here.
The following meetups take place in cities with regular scheduling, but involve a change in time or location, special meeting content, or simply a helpful reminder about the meetup:
* [Berlin] AI safety Berl... |
ae980c72-1cd3-42c2-aba0-00e47cb0a165 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Triangle NC Meetup - May 20th 6pm
When: Friday May 20th, at 6pm
Where: *Note this has changed* Starbucks on NC Highway 55
If this is not a good date/time for you, please comment and we'll plan our upcoming meetups accordingly. We plan to have biweekly meetings, alternating between Wednesdays and a weekend day; we'd... |
57763e04-afcf-4122-bae6-1b5d836422a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Hypersphere Analysis Part 1: Datafields & Preliminary Analysis
This is a post (hopefully eventually a short series of posts) detailing my analysis of the recently released D&D.Sci scenario by abstractapplic. I've decided to go through documenting what I do - if you intend to play the scenario yourself without... |
b44d46ab-2372-48ba-86c5-c50922ac3100 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bay Area Lesswrong Meet up Sunday May 16
No invitations to Benton House have been forthcoming for the last couple months, so I thought we might do one located in a restaurant somewhere. I would suggest Holder's Country Inn, but if anyone else has any suggestions, I'm more than willing to change venue. I would sugges... |
974fddfc-3741-411d-9aca-5d049bc29ad4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - May 2017
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - May 2017
WHEN: 07 May 2017 04:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 10 Shepherd Street, Chippendale
Come improve your plans, motivation and other rationality skills at our monthly dojo. Dinner afterwards with the group nearby... |
97724016-10df-4240-b26f-6ce834a0f45f | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3073
This post is part of the sequence version of the Effective Altruism Foundation's research agenda on Cooperation, Conflict, and Transformative Artificial Intelligence . 5 Contemporary AI architectures Although the architectures of TAI systems will likely be quite different to existing ones, it may still be... |
3da0bf2a-bdcf-4aa9-aedf-f56a7c112ea6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | An overview of 11 proposals for building safe advanced AI
*This is the blog post version of [the paper by the same name](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.07532). Special thanks to Kate Woolverton, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Alex Turner, William Saunders, Beth Barnes, Abram Demski, Scott Garrabrant, Sam Eisenstat, and Tsvi... |
2ca02a8a-3ce4-4db1-9d24-0384e959cd1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why we're not founding a human-data-for-alignment org
TL;DR
One-paragraph summary: we (two recent graduates) spent about half of the summer exploring the idea of starting an organisation producing custom human-generated datasets for AI alignment research. Most of our time was spent on customer interviews with alignmen... |
94ebab74-d42b-4991-8d65-30db053a8f96 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Provability logic
The Gödel -Löb system of provability logic, or $GL$ for short, is a [https://arbital.com/p/-5j8](https://arbital.com/p/-5j8) which captures important notions about [provability predicates](https://arbital.com/p/5j7). It can be regarded as a formalism which allows to decide whether certain sentences i... |
d066d060-48c7-4f4d-b3ae-9480c426c289 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Age, fluid intelligence, and intelligent posts
As this diagram shows, fluid intelligence generally declines with age after age 20 (this is an effect that is confirmed across multiple studies - you can find more if you google fluid intelligence + age online.
Yet, on the other hand, I've noticed that the most intellige... |
6d7327c1-e499-4064-9cab-5fc078986f7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would you learn absolute pitch?
Absolute pitch is the ability to correctly identify any musical note. It is close to another ability, relative pitch, which is the ability to identify any interval correctly, although relative pitch is usually described as the ability to correctly identify any note, once the subject... |
f110ecf4-8510-4388-9179-580998517110 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | formal alignment: what it is, and some proposals
what i call "formal alignment" is an approach to solving [AI alignment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T4KZ62LJsxDkMf4nF/a-casual-intro-to-ai-doom-and-alignment-1) that consists of:
* designing a formal goal, utility function, or decision process, which actually lead... |
57f3549f-7e96-4dcd-b933-98d014f51f5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | outlining is a historically recent underutilized gift to family
outlining is specialized work which reduces a text to complete summary statements and collapsed detail.
an outline containing a work sprint. note the collapsed points in the 'old sprints' which hide all the old sprint detail.
outlining is historically re... |
7e439021-d3b9-4279-ae1b-25b4abe397f9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Avoiding Tampering Incentives in Deep RL via Decoupled Approval
1 Introduction
---------------
††∗ Equal contribution.††DeepMind, London, UK. Correspondence to {juesato,
If reinforcement learning (RL) agents are to have a large influence in society, it is essential that we have reliable mechanisms to communicate o... |
cc36ee55-fda2-42f1-a3d3-a50e57307051 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Make the Drought Evaporate!
~ desalinate with <5% the energy & equipment ~
TL;DR — We need to stop droughts, especially as climate change makes them worse. Desalination is nice, capturing clean water from the sea, yet it requires expensive equipment and lots and lots of energy. We can, instead, accelerate evaporation... |
ec0c8f5c-b84b-4f76-b83d-a19cc0d6b221 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Speedrun ruiner research idea
Edit Apr 14: To be perfectly clear, this is another cheap thing you can add to your monitoring/control system; this is not a panacea or deep insight folks. Just a Good Thing You Can Do™.
* Central claim: If you can make a tool to prevent players from glitching games *in the general case... |
32194dda-4fe7-4f8e-92a1-75947276e640 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Anthropic, Google, Microsoft & OpenAI announce Executive Director of the Frontier Model Forum & over $10 million for a new AI Safety Fund
Today, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI are announcing the selection of Chris Meserole as the first Executive Director of the Frontier Model Forum, and the creation of a ne... |
f660d937-f432-44ed-a21a-a3cef030f662 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comparing Utilities
(This is a basic point about utility theory which many will already be familiar with. I draw some non-obvious conclusions which may be of interest to you even if you think you know this from the title -- but the main point is to communicate the basics. I'm posting it to the alignment forum because ... |
40d3552d-3c26-4074-adb2-fa23b426a2db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong Melbourne September Dojo: Vagueness
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Melbourne September Dojo: Vagueness
WHEN: 06 September 2015 08:44:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Ross House Association, 247 Flinders Lane Melbourne
This month's dojo will be split into two parts: Theory and practice. The th... |
92b1552c-5252-4d00-a3b7-3e6593104a70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pandora earrings jewellery free postage on the internet
A slim silver band with paper hearts etched all around it would be reasonably priced, and would make an especially okay gift in the bargain.And also if you're pandora charms sale 1837 for a specific guy, heart-shaped jewelry need not be old fashioned - in fact, y... |
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