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4c2bdef2-cafa-4e72-8107-0bc52b0abf73 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction Markets Have an Anthropic Bias to Deal With
TL;DR: Whether Ćirković et al.'s Anthropic Shadow is philosophically legitimate or not, it contains a totally relevant intuition for profiting off prediction markets: if you're dead when the taxman comes, it doesn't matter how much you owe. As such, there's either... |
06847bad-75d7-4b3c-9db5-5bbadacf1cc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Direct Observation
My dad’s a retired science teacher, so my little brother and I began playing the “I’m not touching you!” game unusually early.
In case you’re not familiar with “I’m not touching you!”, here’s how it works.
Step 1: Ask your parents (or the internet or whatever) why you don’t fall through the floor... |
47b2fbb2-7f50-4c06-85c2-81b277b424a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The low Information Density of Eliezer Yudkowsky & LessWrong
TLDR:
I think Eliezer Yudkowsky & many posts on LessWrong are failing at keeping things concise and to the point.
Actual post:
I think the content from Eliezer Yudkowsky & on LessWrong in general is unnecessarily wordy.
A counterexample of where Eli... |
e456c8a6-d2c9-4e55-b2d5-6dfaccc9091a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Cardinality
summary: If $A$ is a finite set then the cardinality of $A$, denoted $|A|$, is the number of elements $A$ contains. When $|A| = n$, we say that $A$ is a set of cardinality $n$. There exists a [bijection](https://arbital.com/p/499) from any finite set of cardinality $n$ to the set $\{0, ..., (n-1)\}$ contai... |
0fc88180-fb5b-463f-b352-381c09604e70 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Anthropic probabilities and cost functions
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; f... |
b9bb5aeb-d3a8-4b78-b4ec-1fb4196de3bb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The unexpected difficulty of comparing AlphaStar to humans
*This is crossposted from the [AI Impacts blog.](https://aiimpacts.org/the-unexpected-difficulty-of-comparing-alphastar-to-humans/)*
Artificial intelligence defeated a pair of professional Starcraft II players for the first time in December 2018. Although t... |
5ff40cda-6f2d-44fc-9b94-3f752f2628e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Excuses and validity
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/on-excuses-and-validity/
----------------------------------------
We learn't yesterday about what is a problem? I want to talk about one specific aspect of the barrier. The part of the barrier that is inside your head. The one that makes excuses.
> The ba... |
ec114524-22db-4bd1-865b-5833b9635151 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Modeling Society as a Damped Harmonic Oscillator
None |
cc7d2431-d832-4e3b-8579-486be39127a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ARC is hiring theoretical researchers
The Alignment Research Center’s Theory team is starting a new hiring round for researchers with a theoretical background. Please apply here.
Update January 2024: we have paused hiring and expect to reopen in the second half of 2024. We are open to expressions of interest but do n... |
e2ba0b07-f26d-449b-8eb8-0588fdf2239b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Visiting Museums
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Visiting Museums
WHEN: 16 April 2017 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
The AI Risk/Safety meetup is being postponed because the person leading the discussion will be o... |
1aaab112-6c85-44dd-ae36-a27479b1359d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Intro to caring about AI alignment as an EA cause
I recently gave a talk at Google on the problem of aligning smarter-than-human AI with operators' goals. Below is a modified transcript, in case people here are interested. I think it provides a decent introduction to "AI risk" as a cause-area worthy of attention from ... |
a1f2f701-d2ac-44ea-81cc-788824c5591d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for Widely Applicable Quantitative Methods
I'm going to be competing in the Moody's Mega Math Challenge, and I was wondering if there was anything in particular I should brush up on.
If you look at previous problems, you can see that they're pretty varied. I want to know if there's any widely applicable math ... |
f2bff08c-1d74-4edc-a2de-de983da5daa9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fractals to Quasiparticles
The Serpinski triangle is usually introduced as a fractal made up of three smaller Serpinski triangles. However, that isn't enough to know what it looks like. Which of these is the Serpinski triangle?
The issue with recursive definitions is they create a vicious circle. To get around this, ... |
bf04c83a-ee35-4c3e-b05f-6140b475c266 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, February 2018
Apologies if it's already there, but I just can't find the open thread.
In case it's not there, open thread for February 2018! Hurray!
In case it is, would it be difficult to check the title string for "open thread" and show a link to the current month's open thread, ask if that's what the... |
ae6260e3-4d64-4645-979f-9c7690e65f34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Buddhist Psychotechnology for Withstanding Apocalypse Stress
I could try writing the well cited and argued version of this post, but that would result in procrastination and get stuck in drafts, so you get the stream of consciousness version instead. Happy to answer clarifying questions in the comments. This post is w... |
4c0a8a97-d626-4825-bb17-6cc07d3f079a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Competitive programming with AlphaCode
Note: I'm totally going to alter the article based on the comments. Though of course I'll give credit where it is due.
Edit: Apparently there is a post by one of the authors going in depth on the paper. Here you go if you don't want to read this. He gives more details than the b... |
23ca044f-5ba9-4c2e-95c4-1e949144ac1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I attempted the AI Box Experiment (and lost)
UPDATE 2013-09-05.
I HAVE SINCE PLAYED TWO MORE AI BOX EXPERIMENTS AFTER THIS ONE, WINNING BOTH.
Update 2013-12-30:
I have lost two more AI box experiments, and won two more. Current Record is 3 Wins, 3 Losses.
I recently played against MixedNuts / LeoTal in an A... |
0df95472-5818-4c22-a3b3-fd2b550fe9cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Seattle Sequences Group: Mysterious Answers 5
Discussion article for the meetup : Seattle Sequences Group: Mysterious Answers 5
WHEN: 06 April 2015 06:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Paul G. Allen Center, 185 Stevens Way, Seattle, Washington
Location is the UW CSE building, room 503. Paid parking is available on ca... |
c9431d99-44f0-4ebc-918c-dd5caf3b86d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't take the organizational chart literally
> "Do you know how much power I'd have to give up to be President?" - Lex Luthor
The CIA, like all intelligence agencies, spends much of its time managing and creating spies. Doing that is its primary job, and though it's also the clandestine operations arm of the U.S. go... |
7a08242a-010b-41bd-8a5d-c3f13b33221b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | David Deutsch: A new way to explain explanation
I'm sure this talk will be of interest, even if most of the ideas that he talks about will be familiar to readers here.
[edit]
In this talk David Deutsch discusses "the most important discovery in human history"; how humanity moved beyond a few hundred thousand years o... |
6d597c9a-44bb-4511-8a4d-995404ad0a00 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should ethicists be inside or outside a profession?
Originally written in 2007.
----------------------------------------
Marvin Minsky in an interview with Danielle Egan for New Scientist:
> Minsky: The reason we have politicians is to prevent bad things from happening. It doesn’t make sense to ask a scientist to w... |
c481d77f-4009-4350-a088-5c88e72fd884 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | CHAI Newsletter #3 2021
5/4/22, 3:16 PM Center for Human-Compatible AI (CHAI) Newsletter
https://mailchi.mp/humancompatible.ai/8faimbkd80 1/6CHAI Newsletter
This newsletter includes CHAI activities from October 2021 to December 2021.
Research Highlight
CHAI co-published a report with the W orld Economic Forum. The “P... |
85a710e8-83fc-464e-acbe-5a7bf52882b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Cross-post] Welcome to the Essay Meta
[Cross-posted from my substack, davekasten.substack.com. {I never said that I was creative at naming things}; core claim probably obvious to most Lesswrong readers but may be entertaining and illuminating to read nonetheless for the rationale and descriptive elements]
Hi,
So he... |
2af4772d-797a-48e9-83b3-943352b4c266 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Facts Matter
There comes a time in the life of a student of philosophy when they start thinking facts aren’t important. What starts off as a passion to stamp out falsehoods and replace them with truths, morphs into an acute uninterest, and eventually disdain towards facts. I have suffered from this mental disorder for... |
ddb54393-ff67-4b5c-8877-efe37e518cff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Minimality principle
In the context of [https://arbital.com/p/2v](https://arbital.com/p/2v), the "Principle of Minimality" or "Principle of Least Everything" says that when we are building the *first* [https://arbital.com/p/-7g1](https://arbital.com/p/-7g1), we are operating in an extremely dangerous context in which ... |
efac766b-cf99-42db-afef-fb658806504a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Rise and Stagnation of Modernity
Although aspects of it trace back hundreds of years, what I call “modernity” emerged in the 20th century, in the West. As I define it, modernity includes the following:
* Industrialization and mechanization
* Urbanization
* Abundance
* Low child mortality
* Low fertility
In ... |
7f05ad57-8602-4dce-8b34-33508293d6a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge, MA Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge, MA Meetup
WHEN: 22 July 2012 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 25 Ames St, Cambridge
The usual schedule is to have meetups on the first and third Sundays of each month, but some cool Less Wrongers are in town who've been away for awhile, so let's ... |
eb061116-e800-417d-ad99-b79212e536a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Game Board has been Flipped: Now is a good time to rethink what you’re doing
Cross-posted on the EA Forum here
Introduction
Several developments over the past few months should cause you to re-evaluate what you are doing. These include:
1. Updates toward short timelines
2. The Trump presidency
3. The o1 (inf... |
60880e19-6ab8-4d42-893e-b3d1ff300198 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Dark Arts
lsusr
It is my understanding that you won all of your public forum debates this year. That's very impressive. I thought it would be interesting to discuss some of the techniques you used.
Lyrongolem
Of course! So, just for a brief overview for those who don't know, public forum is a 2v2 debate format, u... |
0e958b61-6bd5-4ad1-931f-835b393b5499 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does butterfly affect?
Can a butterfly really cause a hurricane?
Having been working in complexity science, I realize that I have a problem with the conventional understanding of the butterfly effect. Sure, in ideal deterministic chaotic systems, the butterfly effect does a great job illustrating the quasi-stochastic... |
abe943d2-c86d-45da-bc8e-3008253c9e1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minicamps on Rationality and Awesomeness: May 11-13, June 22-24, and July 21-28
“I do not say this lightly... but if you're looking for superpowers, this is the place to start.”
--Michael Curzi, summer 2011 minicamp participant
Who: You and a class full of other aspiring rationalists and world-optimizers, from aroun... |
745bed3b-602c-4840-af84-65425201b542 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does agency necessarily imply self-preservation instinct?
I have recently read some blog posts (this, this and this) about tool AGIs and why agent AGIs are more likely. The argument that convinced me to err on the side of agent AGIs was that they are more likely to have an economical advantage over tool AGIs, as expla... |
5fe9dbe7-1545-40b0-b362-1b81b2bdbde9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why does LW not put much more focus on AI governance and outreach?
Epistemic status: Noticing confusion
There is little discussion happening on LessWrong with regards to AI governance and outreach. Meanwhile, these efforts could buy us time to figure out technical alignment. And even if we figure out technical alignm... |
bd35c207-851b-47c4-b19d-89a4b720fe50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beards and Masks?
In general, you're not supposed to wear a beard with a respirator mask (N95, P100, etc), at least not in a way where you have facial hair under the seal:
But how much worse is the fit? A P100 with a beard is going to filter less well than a P100 without a beard, but does it do as well as an N95... |
947daa7b-64e1-4e2b-9cb3-17a925bf600f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Distractingness of Various Parts of Facebook
Have people found Facebook notifications (like the ones on the top bar) or unread messages on Facebook particularly distracting when you go on Facebook to reply to messages or make a post? Newwfeed, etc.? Is this kind of distraction more common with people with ADHD? |
637696ff-a2ab-4c17-8184-2ab3dd8f875a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A review of "Agents and Devices"
In the small group of people who care about deconfusing goal-directedness and like Daniel Dennett's intentional stance, there's one paper everyone mentions: [Agents and Devices](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.12387), by Orseau, McGill and Legg. It's also pretty much the only paper ever men... |
f690201f-0afa-4f5b-918b-46f8c29dcf6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A reply to Francois Chollet on intelligence explosion
Eliezer replies to Francis Chollet. |
7ecd5baa-6e25-4c28-a0bf-91a6aa0b88b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Abstraction, Causality, and Embedded Maps: Here Be Monsters
In a lot of examples of abstract causality, the abstract causal structure generally mirrors the ground-level causal structure. Think about fluid flow, for instance. At the (classical) ground level, we have a bunch of particles whose interactions are local in ... |
c444ac8e-3f71-4254-a61e-32bc9c2f04d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RFC: A Self-quantification Essay (ongoing draft)
I am not the best writer on the block, but I been working on a self quantification essay. It is of interest to lesswrongers since it is about It's about applying epistemic and instrumental rationality to self improvement in the form of running scientific experiments an... |
79bc905e-1d2f-4352-a1e9-8696e31c596a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is MIRI actually hiring and does Buck Shlegeris still work for you?
I applied to MIRI software engineer position last year on 26 February 2020. The first stage of the interview was a Triplebyte quiz. Triplebyte said I passed it "particularly well" and qualify for Fast Track program. However, Buck Shlegeris said he's n... |
fc9b4dff-ef53-43db-b0e0-643966374bd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is a VNM stable set, really?
Previously: Book report: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (von Neumann & Morgenstern)
Summary: Von Neumann and Morgenstern defined the notion of stable set in order to characterize some sort of equilibrium in cooperative games. Lucas showed that stable sets don't always exist, s... |
e2382705-f821-43b9-a8e1-e0502cccb0ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can you define "utility" in utilitarianism without using words for specific human emotions?
I'm trying to get a slightly better grasp of utilitarianism as it is understood in rat/EA circles, and here's my biggest confusion at the moment.
How do you actually define "utility", not in the sense of how to compute it, but... |
3a893bff-2981-4b62-ae21-8932e4c9be34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LDSL#3] Information-orientation is in tension with magnitude-orientation
Followup to: Latent variable models, network models, and linear diffusion of sparse lognormals. This post is also available on my Substack.
Let’s say you are trying to make predictions about a variable. For example, maybe you are an engineer tr... |
cee5b072-2296-4acd-8b0f-979dcff87814 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Eliezer Yudkowsky - Difficulties of Artificial General Intelligence Alignment
for Eliezer in the meantime I'll give a
leisurely introduction for for for
Eliezer it's a pleasure to have eliezer
yudkowsky as our next speaker Elias is
really a pioneer in these issues about
safe beneficial and ethical AI he's been
working... |
fe41cca3-affb-42a9-9b30-264da965000f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Some promising career ideas beyond 80,000 Hours' priority paths
*This is a sister post to ["Problem areas beyond 80,000 Hours' current priorities"](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xoxbDsKGvHpkGfw9R/problem-areas-beyond-80-000-hours-current-priorities).*
Introduction
------------
In this post, we list som... |
41982730-f13e-4cfc-bde7-7e617af0c0c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection
I’ve been travelling to New York City once again, and it’s been a busy week, including putting in bids on multiple different apartments. Developments are ongoing, so I’ve been even busier than usual and it’s likely some stuff has slipped through the cracks.
The overall s... |
554624a6-12fe-4fbe-bf5b-c94077071628 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Other versions of "No free lunch in value learning"
Here are some more general results derived from "[Occam's razor is insufficient to infer the preferences of irrational agents](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812)":
* Regularisation is insufficient to make inverse reinforcement learning work.
* Unsupervised learning ... |
d6e20b86-7546-4ab7-b379-5633f6f4aede | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We should not raise awareness
The phrase "we should raise awareness about x" creeps me out. I had trouble identifying exactly why until I read this summary of simulacra levels.
> Level 1: “There’s a lion across the river.” = There’s a lion across the river.
>
> Level 2: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I don’t w... |
e92d6745-385a-441b-b1b4-33b08fcda0e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "The Universe of Minds" - call for reviewers (Seeds of Science)
Abstract
The paper attempts to describe the space of possible mind designs by first equating all minds to software. Next it proves some interesting properties of the mind design space such as infinitude of minds, size and representation complexity of mind... |
f902b073-8583-4da7-952e-aac99ef735ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much background technical knowledge do LW readers have?
When writing posts, it would be useful to know how much background technical knowledge LW readers have in various areas.
To that end, I set up a short six-question survey. Please take it, so I (and others) can write posts better fit to your level of technica... |
256113c7-3721-4a08-8d25-9844d1b80016 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A response to the Richards et al.'s "The Illusion of AI's Existential Risk"
There are no groundbreaking or revolutionary concepts presented, it's likely that this material is all review for the average LWer. I would appreciate feedback on how effectively this content resonates with a relatively new audience.
Epistemi... |
e4304077-bb7a-4fdd-856a-a62a3f441920 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bratislava
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava
WHEN: 18 August 2014 06:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Bistro The Peach, Mariánska 3, Bratislava
Pošlite do mailovej skupiny linku na zaujímavú tému, o ktorej sa chcete na meetupe porozprávať.
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava |
b2808fa5-b992-4731-92da-ecb43b76294d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Surplus splitting strategy
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
When negotiating over the price of a nice chair at a garage sale, it can be useful to demonstrate there is only twenty dollars in your wallet. When determining whether your friend will make you a separate meal or you will eat something... |
d1748d1c-695f-4982-92d9-69d44244244f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Class-Based Addressing
When we have multiple ships built along similar designs, it's customary to refer to them by the initial example of the design. For example, the last American battleships are called Iowa-class, after their lead ship the Iowa. Until recently, Nora (22mo) used this in naming people. This included, ... |
1825a24d-d489-4555-957c-9cc1751c68e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: Monetizing anti-akrasia mechanisms
Related to the recurring topic of akrasia and anticipated near-mode losses, here's an article about "Gym-Pact," an arrangement whereby people precommit to pay penalty fees if they don't stick to their planned workout schedules.
In other words, they aren't charging customers mo... |
c31cb25a-12c5-4095-beba-e21f2273affb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Character alignment
When I introspect on why I do not kill more people, I find it has not very much to do with my goals. Mostly my goals would not be furthered by murder and some goals, like staying out of prison would be endangered, but if I just took the option seriously it wouldn't surprise me if murder would occas... |
baadf02c-fc1f-4284-a9e7-b71ebf49b0c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Paradigm Shift in Sustainability
This post is an effort to present in an accessible way, the paradigm shift happening in our model of sustainability. The current paradigm mainly centers around the goal of achieving a steady state where humanity can reach homeostasis with the environment for an indefinite amount of t... |
ab679cba-6a5a-4b73-95f0-f48b89873439 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Layers Of Mind
I did not intend to post this anywhere. I just wrote this for myself. But then I thought that I should maybe post it on Less Wrong — a blog I have not read since its golden years. I almost never post anything I write anywhere, but this time I thought of the virtue of Relinquishment — that I should submi... |
c5eb565c-53f0-411b-83f4-81fd219d0773 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teaching ML to answer questions honestly instead of predicting human answers
(Note: very much work in progress, unless you want to follow along with my research you'll probably want to wait for an improved/simplified/clarified algorithm.)
In this post I consider the particular problem of models learning “predict how ... |
4639e305-939d-4b5d-8204-9262e4918f38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Russian we have the word 'Mirozdanie', which means all that exists
In Russian we have the word 'Mirozdanie', which means all that exists, no matter do we know anything about it or not. The sense of this word includes you and me and every man, and every star, and every planet and all universes and all space (super) ... |
34b51f99-14fe-4300-b04c-c866261eea7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Magic is Dead, Give me Attention
(cross posted from my personal personal blog (not to be confused with my personal blog)
Back story
So here's the thing. I absolutely LOVE attention. I also HATE asking for attention. This past weekend I've processed those last two statements on a much deeper level than I have previou... |
51d49cde-db2d-43f9-b5f9-c9179ceb3a2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Constraints & Slackness as a Worldview Generator
Last post speculated that capital was much more scarce (relative to labor) in medieval/renaissance China than Europe. We introduced the hypothesis that this was a major cause (though not a root cause) of the failure of China to automate and, by extension, the failure of... |
8f77ef6d-c9de-47fd-bd46-1c75f31edf0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Massive Scaling Should be Frowned Upon
Summary: It seems at least possible that scaling AI systems (broadly construed) could create dangerously powerful agents. I consider methods to discourage groups from massively scaling AI systems with little regard for safety. Examining cultural, regulatory, and technological int... |
0c596b05-0203-46e2-98ec-6561bac5f252 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stop blaming efficiency
Andrew Sullivan, quoting and commenting on Adam Frank:
> We’re more efficient than we’ve ever been, but extreme efficiency has drawbacks:
>
> More efficient forestation means running through forests faster. More efficient fishing methods means running through natural fishing stocks faster. … ... |
08b079f4-5e29-423b-9800-05cb5972ff5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Logical counterfactuals and differential privacy
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: now... |
ac07a5e5-cfcc-407c-a18c-8a0761f8de36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Feb. 9 - Feb. 15, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately ... |
e6265e98-f6e7-4095-b7b3-d9a8af0d7985 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Munich Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Munich Meetup
WHEN: 01 June 2013 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Café "Le copain", Gasteig, Rosenheimer Straße 5, 81667 Munich
The next meetup in Munich will be on Saturday, June 1st. At the last meetup, we decided that we would read the first three posts of the ... |
68851ed9-c881-40d9-ac85-3f957f4d419b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is every life really worth preserving?
Singularitarians frequently lament the irrevocably dead and the lack of widespread application of cryonics. Many cryonocists feel that as many lives as possible should be (and in a more rational world, would be) cryopreserved. Eliezer Yudkowsky, in an update to the touching note ... |
8ddc8956-8554-4602-b9a8-191886334a10 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AXRP Episode 7.5 - Forecasting Transformative AI from Biological Anchors with Ajeya Cotra
*Audio unavailable for this episode.*
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) have conversations with researchers about th... |
50790936-e6b8-4e80-b980-60ff8d702e39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Berkeley LW Meet-Up Saturday May 7
Hey everyone! It is once again the time of the month when all the LW-folk in the SF Bay Area get together. As usual, we will be meeting at the Oxford Street Starbucks at 7 pm and then moving to the Valley Life Sciences Building on the UC Berkeley Campus. We will make time for peop... |
6d640f93-42a9-4e2d-b0c2-8ca0407323be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The bads of ads
In London at the start of the year, perhaps there was more advertising than there usually is in my life, because I found its presence disgusting and upsetting. Could I not use public transport without having my mind intruded upon continually by trite performative questions?
Sometimes I fantasize about... |
6c8c3adf-91e4-4166-bc18-687dcd92cb97 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | When do "brains beat brawn" in Chess? An experiment
As a kid, I really enjoyed chess, as did my dad. Naturally, I wanted to play him. The problem was that my dad was extremely good. He was playing local tournaments and could play blindfolded, while I was, well, a child. In a purely skill based game like chess, an extr... |
4e8edf51-4255-4dd7-be1e-321c77bc8ed1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Frontier AI Regulation
This paper is about (1) "government intervention" to protect "against the risks from frontier AI models" and (2) some particular proposed safety standards. It's by Markus Anderljung, Joslyn Barnhart (Google DeepMind), Jade Leung (OpenAI governance lead), Anton Korinek, Cullen O'Keefe (OpenAI), J... |
1f3e7db0-e043-45da-b8f8-33973fb52d2f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI for everyone - DeepMind: The Podcast (S1, Ep6)
welcome back to the sixth episode of
deep mind the podcast my name is Hanna
Frey I am a mathematician who's worked
with data and algorithms for the last
decade or so and I spent the last year
at deep mind an organization that is
trying to solve intelligence and then
us... |
fd7f7ca0-751b-4755-9417-9ae716b56594 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Prisoner's Dilema Tournament
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Prisoner's Dilema Tournament
WHEN: 26 January 2015 06:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1390 Market St., San Francisco, CA
We'll be having a prisoner's dilemma tournament! (We've done this in DC and it was pre... |
d09a87c4-e56e-43c8-9e79-54f19c2b7261 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] Admitting errors (in meteorology)
From Cafe Hayek (original): Two meteorologists have announced that they will stop using certain forecast methods, even though they've used them for 20 years.
There's a correction at the end of the article, too! |
2dc84241-7e07-4633-97af-1aadf0be81d2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | How might AI socially manipulate humans?
If you use the internet, [recommender systems](https://towardsdatascience.com/ethical-problems-with-recommender-systeems-398198b5a4d2) already influence your daily life. Algorithms optimized for user engagement have steered users towards content that was harmful to them on plat... |
04509c8d-2e08-4608-b1a7-5cf0c837b76d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jaan Tallinn's 2020 Philanthropy Overview
to follow up my philantropic pledge from last year, i've updated my philanthropy page with 2020 results.
TL;DR: i made $4.3MM worth of endpoint grants in 2020, mostly via SFF's grant rounds, beating my minimum commitment by about 2x. |
c0bfdb6f-1d6d-44a7-add1-cef4439c4edb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Timeless Physics Question
Timeless physics is what you end up with if you take MWI, assume the universe is a standing wave, and remove the extraneous variables. From what I understand, for the most part you can take a standing wave and add a time-reversed version, you end up with a standing wave that only uses real nu... |
b1c2569c-4243-4862-8e79-bab0ce4e42e6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Thoughts from a Two Boxer
I'm writing this for blog day at MSFP. I thought about a lot of things here like category theory, the [1-2-3 conjecture](https://arxiv.org/abs/1211.5122) and Paul Christiano's agenda. I want to start by thanking everyone for having me and saying I had a really good time. At this point I inten... |
bc69ba92-dfb2-43c1-9089-319e016eaca2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | money ≠ value
The relationship between money and value is not linear or consistent. This means betting odds don't necessarily correspond to the probability of an event.
--
Converting money to value is done by exchanging it for things you want. The value of increasing your wealth by n dollars is bounded by the most ... |
78203c5e-7f9a-432a-8697-bf92cc1c8e4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Loire Is Not Dry
Several of my friends have shared this paste (or shares of it) on Facebook:
> This is the current state of the Loire, the longest river in France. This has not happened before in at least the 2000 years since literate people inhabited France. The Romans would have written about this. The mediev... |
d08a5cf7-dcdd-4bc7-8a36-0cadc2961d09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Repairing Anxiety using Internal and External locus of control models
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/repairing-anxiety-using-internal-and-external-locus-of-control-models/
I want you to examine your map. It's the representation you carry around in your head that says, "I am in control of most things" or it sa... |
9463cd7e-cb2d-4e6c-bfd9-2f965b5b23af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do people avoid vaccination?
I’ve been fairly confused by the popularity in the US of remaining unvaccinated, in the face of seemingly a non-negligible, relatively immediate personal chance of death or intense illness. And due to the bubbliness of society, I don’t actually seem to know unvaccinated people to ask a... |
d7a133fc-00be-4b87-9309-61560d55138f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI alignment with humans... but with which humans?
Caveat: This post probably raises a naive question; I assume there's at least a 70% chance it's been considered (if not answered) exhaustively elsewhere already; please provide links if so. I've studied evolutionary psych & human nature for 30 years, but am a relativ... |
5ab8e830-da53-4a5e-9bf7-0d165c1986d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #37: Moving Too Fast
We had OpenAI’s dev day, where they introduced a host of new incremental feature upgrades including a longer context window, more recent knowledge cutoff, increased speed, seamless feature integration and a price drop. Quite the package. On top of that, they introduced what they call ‘GPTs’ tha... |
9a87e1a6-cfc1-46be-a8ea-f5b57b23ebc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Site Update] Subscriptions, Bookmarks, & Pingbacks
We've just launched several new features that we've been working on for the past few weeks.
Subscriptions Overhaul
The subscriptions system has been completely rebuilt to 1) support notifications on a much broader range of events, 2) make it possible to receive all... |
a684456e-7d20-469e-acfd-93eb074f45c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Being saner about gender and rationality
It seems that LessWrong has a nascent political problem brewing. Firstly, let me re-iterate why politics is bad for our rationality:
> People go funny in the head when talking about politics. The evolutionary reasons for this are so obvious as to be worth belaboring: In the ... |
ae64c338-1905-47f6-addd-87cf167a5f6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Core Concept Conversation: What is technology?
This is a Core Concept Conversation post.
I've never had a good understanding of what technology is. In How to Make Wealth, Paul Graham describes it as technique:
> What is technology? It's technique. It's the way we all do things. And when you discover a new way to do ... |
8f87b39f-0cc0-420e-a4c3-2ddbde039318 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why aren’t we testing general intelligence distribution?
IQ supposedly measures general intelligence. Assuming the g-factor exists, why are we using IQ to measure it? IQ tests get tweaked so the end result will always form a normal distribution. I checked wikipedia to figure out why, but while it said some people clai... |
576550ad-7e7d-48cc-87ed-053fe2088270 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to identify "pivotal chapters" in HtRaB?
In the Systematic Skimming part of Adler and Van Doren's How to Read a Book, they say you should identify the pivotal chapters. I couldn't find a good definition of this in the book. Does anyone know what they mean? |
55b6a94f-4520-43b0-b5ba-961ffc1e78f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quote quiz: “drifting into dependence”
Quote quiz: who said this? (No fair looking it up). I have modified the original quotation slightly, by making a handful of word substitutions to bring it up to date:
> It might be argued that the human race would never be foolish enough to hand over all power to AI. But we are ... |
98b3e9be-e997-461f-888b-61ad75449c13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If bacteria gave us a tool for bio engineering, have viruses given us a delivery mechanism?
If so what is the name for that technology and what would be the right search terms to find the literature?
From bacteria we got CRISPR. |
b0488260-00bb-4924-83a4-bfdb36c6f628 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Interview with cvgig
\*\*Interview with cvgig, on 3/24/22\*\*
\*\*0:00:02.5 Vael:\*\* Awesome. Alright. So my first question is, can you tell me about what area of AI you work on in a few sentences?
\*\*0:00:09.8 Interviewee:\*\* Yeah. So I\'m what\'s technically called a computational neuroscientist, which is study... |
23930ce6-96a1-46a3-ad22-3840b9d678b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retrospective: PIBBSS Fellowship 2024
Between June and September 2024, we ran the third iteration of the PIBBSS Summer Research Fellowship. Here are our reflections on how the program went and what we learned. Apply for the 2025 program here!
TLDR:
The 2024 fellowship demonstrated continued success in attracting and... |
89967425-9c56-461c-bcf0-757e8c7297ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SSC discussion: growth mindset
(Continuing the posting of select posts from Slate Star Codex for comment here, as discussed in this thread, and as Scott gave me - and anyone else - permission to do with some exceptions.)
Scott Alexander recently posted about growth mindset, with a clarificatory followup post here. He... |
6a8530c8-bf01-48e4-b268-da72d1d86005 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Costs of information storage
*Posted 23 July 2015*
Cheap [secondary memory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auxiliary_memory) appears to cost around $0.03/GB in 2015. In the long run the price has declined by an order of magnitude roughly every 4.6 years. However the rate has declined so much that prices haven’t subst... |
95abbd07-6a22-4d75-bfbc-a9d968bf47f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Utah Court Case Over State Law Regarding "Personhood" for Nonhuman Intelligences
Under US law, the concept of being a "person" is separate from that of being a "human". Certain non-human entities like corporations have been granted limited forms of "personhood" under the law, as famously litigated in the Hobby Lobby c... |
c0d2aba5-874e-4bf1-b366-2f992596bd5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Podcast with Divia Eden and Ronny Fernandez on the strong orthogonality thesis
On my side podcast, "The Filan Cabinet", I invited Ronny Fernandez and Divia Eden to talk about the strong orthogonality thesis, and whether it's true. Seems like people here might also be interested. Podcast description below, and you can ... |
10e2a0a7-cd49-4db6-94bc-d91a1b96760d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lessons from “The Book of My Life”
This is a cross-post from my personal blog. You might enjoy it if you're interested in progress studies or intellectual history.
The Italian Renaissance, like nearly every other time and place, is a real blank spot in my knowledge of history. I recently read The Book of My Life (157... |
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