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9be0482e-0d73-4704-8f3c-506fff66a0fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How was your decade?
Hi everybody,
With the New Year coming up and next year being 2020, I think it's worth reflecting on the last 10 years. As you probably remember the last Sequences post came out towards the end of the decade. How have things gone for you since then? If you're willing to share, here's some things ... |
780329e2-b9fd-4960-9600-b8979576007a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probably Not a Ghost Story
Something happened to me a few months back that I still don't have a satisfying explanation for.
I was in a small, 10x10 room, and on my way out. Still a few paces from being within arm's length of the light switch, my partner asked me to "turn off the lights, please."
The lights immediate... |
06fb73d2-a489-42d1-ac0f-cc8138286a48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minor interpretability exploration #4: LayerNorm and the learning coefficient
Epistemic status: small exploration without previous predictions, results low-stakes and likely correct.
Introduction
As a personal exercise for building research taste and experience in the domain of AI safety and specifically interpretab... |
752684e9-8f71-4d2f-ac21-15d63851e049 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How "Pinky Promise" diplomacy once stopped a war in the Middle East
An incredible example of game theory's Generous Tit for Tat strategy being utilised in diplomacy during a real-world crisis - stopping a military escalation between Israel and Jordan in the eve of the 1990 Gulf War. Also includes some hilarious accoun... |
fd709112-e9b0-415f-b8f7-c02ec5837ad9 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "11/26: The survey is now closed. Please do not take the survey. Your results will not be counted.
It's that time of year again.
If you are reading this post, and have not been sent here by some sort of conspiracy trying to throw off the survey results, then you are the target population for the Less Wrong Census/Surve... |
3460c57a-b384-47a8-bed8-19d0c4c5f8fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI risk/reward: A simple model
All models are wrong, but some are useful.
George Box
Likewise, most long term forecasts are wrong, the process is useful.
Summary
* I have built a large model around AI risk/reward
* I'm looking for correction
* Numbers that I’m curious for errors in
* AI to run all functions... |
422eee21-5b37-4ec3-8274-27c3f34a8af8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | October 2013 Media Thread
This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. Post what you're reading, listening to, watching, and your opinion of it. Post recommendations to blogs. Post whatever media you feel like discussing! To see previous recommendations, check out the... |
215576e5-f9be-4241-b37a-348dff7f568f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Human-AI Reflective Equilibrium
A pluralist perspective on AI Alignment
Introduction
AI progress is accelerating, leading to some pretty crazy predictions about “why the next decades might be wild.” I won’t debate those here but, following Ajeya Cotra, I will just assume we’ll hit some sort of human-level Artifi... |
193e7ad8-a068-4a68-a80f-2fa226a34c72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Genders Discrimination
Whales are queering the fish-mammal binary
Cross-posted from Putanumonit
----------------------------------------
Categories in your head
In physical reality, light with wavelength between 380 and 700 nm passes through your eyeball and activates cells in your retina. In your mind, you percei... |
99948983-da64-41a8-a4b7-60b2b6159258 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Falsifying the Simulation Hypothesis (or Embracing its Predictions)
Disclaimer: This is my first post on this website, I tried to follow the proper etiquette, but please let me know if something is off. :)
Briefly about me: former academic (PhD in theoretical physics, quantum black holes, string theory, informati... |
50117275-50fb-41db-a365-d5407b926862 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-reductionism as complementary, rather than contradictory
Epistemic Status: confused & unlikely
Author's note: the central claim of this article I now believe is confused, and mostly inaccurate. More precisely (in response to a comment by ChristianKl)
> >Whose idea of reductionism are you criticising? I think yo... |
0585e8d6-1a5b-4f5a-bc60-78d5ba35a481 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Model-Based Policy Analysis under Deep Uncertainty
This post is based on an introduction [talk that I gave at EAGxBerlin 2022](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPlcHpn9qwg). It is intended for policy researchers who want to extend their tool kit with computational tools. I show how we can support decision-making with s... |
5eba45a3-413b-4a7b-aaeb-dfdc03b6bd9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #21:
Google DeepMind’s GPT-4 Competitor, Military Investments in Autonomous Drones, The UK AI Safety Summit, and Case Studies in AI Policy
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe here to receive futu... |
d9c5a385-886e-4377-88c8-ed211905e8ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2023-06-01
Richard Rhodes, illegal floor plans, and cyborg insects
Announcements/opportunities
* Plymouth Street can help top talent get an O-1 or EB-1 visa
* Econ Twitter science fiction summer book club, July 12
Works in Progress Issue 11
* Olivine weathering: “Fixing global warming... |
073d31cd-b17f-4fb9-ac9a-acb8ee049986 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is Vingean uncertainty?
[Vingean uncertainty](https://arbital.greaterwrong.com/p/Vingean_uncertainty/) is a situation where you are certain about the outcome, even though you are uncertain about the path that will lead there. For example, if you were playing a game of chess against grandmaster [Magnus Carlsen](ht... |
e3f946bd-5e71-4ec9-93a3-a4c9be61f56f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misc Meta
Overcoming Bias now has a new Welcome page, as I'm sure you've noticed on the sidebar. A completely ad-hoc eyeballing "statistical" test during our recent Redditing showed that a less prominent placement didn't increase pageviews per visit. Hopefully it won't get in the way too much.
Handy social bookmark... |
e000a517-1119-46bb-ab5a-7bad1d8465e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asymptotic Decision Theory
|
dcbb9b2f-7302-46a8-98d5-da00b85654bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It Takes Two Paracetamol?
Note: Depending on where you live paracetamol is also known as acetaminophen, APAP and Tylenol.
I have had a version of the following conversation a surprising number of times:
> "I have a headache."
>
> "Aah, that sucks. Did you take some paracetamol?"
>
> "Yes, but it still hurts."
>
... |
c2129047-a055-47b4-80e3-926a3016339a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Barebones Guide to Mechanistic Interpretability Prerequisites
Co-authored by Neel Nanda and Jess Smith
Check out Concrete Steps for Getting Started in Mechanistic Interpretability for a better starting point
Why does this exist?
People often get intimidated when trying to get into AI or AI Alignment research. Peo... |
2051084e-e97e-479c-b17b-6e01aafb0acd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best of Rationality Quotes 2009/2010
Best of Rationality Quotes 2009/2010 (Warning: 750kB page, 774 quotes)
The year's last Rationality Quotes thread has calmed down, so now it is a good time to update my Best of Rationality Quotes page, and write a top post about it. (The original version was introduced in the June ... |
4e64011d-6ff6-4e16-b953-488b94fc9ccc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are lawsuits against AGI companies extending AGI timelines?
More precisely: Are copyright lawsuits against companies developing large language model slowing down the creation of AGI?
For example, there's this ongoing lawsuit: https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/.
You could also imagine this kind of lawsuits extended... |
df1f639e-8e8d-40b0-ac7d-ce518adbd0ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow meet up
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow meet up
WHEN: 03 August 2014 02:00:49PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Pretty much the usual: Discussion of cognitive biases, rhetorical fallacies, a couple of presentations on rationality and strategic failures, games and ex... |
9c1fef03-17f3-403a-a9b9-b9a9affaf92d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | CURL: Contrastive Unsupervised Representations for Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Developing agents that can perform complex control tasks from high dimensional observations such as pixels has been possible by combining the expressive power of deep neural networks with the long-term credit as... |
bfc20ec6-5534-4ba9-979d-67b68c7f83f2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Is it possible to block an AI from doing certain things on the Internet?
Once an AGI has access to the internet it would be very challenging to meaningfully restrict it from doing things online which it wants to. There are too many options to bypass blocks we may put in place.
It may be possible to design it so that ... |
8898f98f-063a-4cc2-860e-3b3d17b08dc0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't rely on the system to guarantee you life satisfaction
A brief essay intended for high school students: any thoughts?
If you go to school, take the classes that people tell you to, do your homework, and engage in the extracurricular activities that your peers do, you'll be setting yourself up for an "okay" life.... |
d9322fa9-ce12-46c6-b445-3a91b2ab75fc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Shah and Yudkowsky on alignment failures
This is the final discussion log in the [Late 2021 MIRI Conversations](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/n945eovrA3oDueqtq) sequence, featuring Rohin Shah and Eliezer Yudkowsky, with additional comments from Rob Bensinger, Nate Soares, Richard Ngo, and Jaan Tallinn.
The discussion ... |
15cc6114-b62b-4b69-b570-632332c5d664 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryonics on Castle [Spoilers]
Check out the latest episode of Castle (Headcase) to see Cryonics covered in mainstream fiction in a not entirely terrible manner. The details are not exactly accurate but probably not more inaccurate than similar fictionalised coverage of most other industries. In fact there is one obvio... |
a606174a-a922-4335-b7ce-ff0094b061a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I Tripped and Became GPT! (And How This Updated My Timelines)
***Disclaimer:** The effects of psilocybin in magic mushrooms are not particularly well researched and while I had good experiences with it, I cannot specifically recommend it due to possible risks. Please do your own research.*
***Epistemic Status:** This... |
6d772958-2bc5-4869-b291-c7f854eca6c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yet More "Stupid" Questions
This is a thread where people can ask questions that they would ordinarily feel embarrassed for not knowing the answer to. The previous "stupid" questions thread is at almost 500 questions in about a month, so I think it's time for a new one.
Also, I have a new "stupid" question. |
343e9e85-e0f7-4bd2-a608-3dbc2ceb2340 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Incident Monitoring: A Brief Analysis
Introduction
People are making important decisions about artificial intelligence every day, ranging from whether and how to use it to what policies should be passed regarding its development, without substantial awareness of the possibilities and risks (Founder's Pledge 2024, p... |
6c69de5d-eca8-4cda-9a94-67b9f3b0bde2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fundamental Philosophical Problems Inherent in AI discourse
Historically AI had several winters, where hype bubbles rose and collapsed. It is also full of pronouncements or predictions such as
“We think that a significant advance can be made in one or more of these problems if a carefully selected group of scientists... |
a9771c4c-aa58-42cd-9921-4deed30c4d51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantum Immortality: A Perspective if AI Doomers are Probably Right
Epistemic status: This text presents a thought experiment suggested by James Miller, along with Alexey Turchin's musings on possible solutions. While our thoughts are largely aligned (we both accept high chances of quantum Immortality and the timeline... |
a584c230-452d-4a76-a795-5dde707bbf6f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Robust Delegation
*(A longer text-based version of this post is also available on MIRI's blog [here](https://intelligence.org/2018/11/04/embedded-delegation/), and the bibliography for the whole sequence can be found* *[here](https://intelligence.org/embedded-agency))*
### Disclaimers
This is a rough draft of the first part of the nth post of what I hope to turn into a proper sequence investigating AI takeoff dynamics. It's not entirely self-contained material. There's a lot of preceding and subsequent context th... |
5de38936-6122-4fb6-8033-45052d6d1e61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Affordable Housing Workarounds
After reading some about how affordable housing is actually implemented, it looks to me like rich people could exploit it to avoid paying property and inheritance taxes, and generally get around the means testing requirements.
Affordable housing is about renting or selling homes well be... |
1c54577d-64b6-4a97-a90f-2cd13e97f858 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 39 - Evan Hubinger on Model Organisms of Misalignment
YouTube link
The ‘model organisms of misalignment’ line of research creates AI models that exhibit various types of misalignment, and studies them to try to understand how the misalignment occurs and whether it can be somehow removed. In this episode,... |
95c82086-69ad-45ed-8a43-b90e47cbbbe1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Happiness is a Heuristic
Whenever the topic of happiness is mentioned, it's always discussed like it's the most important thing in the world. People talk about it like they would a hidden treasure or a rare beast - you have to seek it, hunt it, ensnare it and hold it tight, or it'll slip through your fingers. Perhaps ... |
7e0ca409-6d6f-439e-b4d6-df575800eb3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Alignment YouTube Playlists
I created two AI Alignment playlists on Youtube. One that is slide-heavy and the other is not. I separated them into two playlists for two reasons.
1. It’s useful to separate for a dataset I am working on.
2. Media is easier to consume when you don’t have to pay attention to the slide... |
363fc3d1-2414-47a6-b6b6-f7df660a1671 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Description complexity: an apology and note on terminology
This post is an amendment and sort of apology for my LW posts dealing with complexity (1, 2). In these posts I got the terms all wrong. Now I'll try to set it right. Many thanks to taw, JGWeissman and Daniel_Burfoot.
The Solomonoff prior works like this: ever... |
2a0459ca-aff9-4240-8d10-b15547c9372b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Order of a group
The order $|G|$ of a [group](https://arbital.com/p/3gd) $G$ is the size of its [underlying set](https://arbital.com/p/3gz). For example, if $G=(X,\bullet)$ and $X$ has nine elements, we say that $G$ has order $9$. If $X$ is infinite, we say $G$ is infinite; if $X$ is finite, we say $G$ is finite.
The... |
2d7368c0-e235-4f58-a3c9-184b9c5f7e8f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Knowing Whether
1 Introduction
---------------
The work entitled ‘Logics of public communication’ by Plaza [[Pla89](#bib.bibx9)]111Reprinted as [[Pla07](#bib.bibx10)] with comments by [[vD07](#bib.bibx12)]. is mainly known as one of the founding publications, if not the founding publication, of public announcement ... |
17933d96-f348-4e3a-b1d3-af7d6072cabf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Approximation is expensive, but the lunch is cheap
> *Produced under the mentorship of Evan Hubinger as part of the*[*SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program*](https://serimats.org/) *- Winter 2022 Cohort.*
>
>
> *Thank you to* [*@Mark Chiu*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/mark-chiu?mention=user) *and* [*@Quin... |
c9d14084-286e-4c92-af8a-ed272705a773 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anticipating AI: Keeping Up With What We Build
This speech was delivered at an internal event at Infotiv. Unlike my typical posts that explore specific subjects, this one provides a more comprehensive overview. The presentation slides are available here. For those interested primarily in the core content, you may skip... |
72f51bf8-249e-41e8-b3fd-58fa7435378b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How the response to a pandemic affecting mainly children would look like?
At the beginning of the pandemic, I was unable to predict how utterly incompetent most Western governments were going to be to handle the situation at all levels (barring some honourable exceptions) and I have had to update more than once my mod... |
6d0731e1-a4c2-4c9d-90b4-f4f9e843d9d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI safety tax dynamics
Two important themes in many discussions of the future of AI are:
1. AI will automate research, and thus accelerate technological progress
2. There are serious risks from misaligned AI systems (that justify serious investments in safety)
How do these two themes interact? Especially: how shou... |
8d2d6e71-aae0-4bc4-94ca-6bb3d441222d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lab governance reading list
What labs should do
* The table/list in Towards best practices in AGI safety and governance: A survey of expert opinion (GovAI: Schuett et al. 2023): a collection of many briefly-described safety practices
* Responsible Scaling Policies and Key Components of an RSP (METR 2023)
* Model e... |
5880c183-e71f-44f2-b9bb-3307455dc8b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Pessimism About Unknown Unknowns Inspires Conservatism
arXiv:2006.08753v1 [cs.AI] 15 Jun 2020Proceedings of Machine Learning Research vol 125: 1–30, 2020 33rd Annual Conference on Learning Theory
Pessimism About Unknown Unknowns Inspires Conservatism
Michael K. Cohen MICHAEL -K-COHEN .COM
University of Oxford
Resear... |
cb0676c6-44fe-4af1-9ea3-43838a6f51c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On using computers as brains and brains as computers
I visited the DC area recently and recorded a couple more podcasts with Robin Hanson while there:
* Robin’s book, Age of Em
* Rationality
Talking to Robin is pretty entertaining and intellectually invigorating, and I recommend it.
The rest of our very occasiona... |
81a7f3d9-dd37-409c-a788-74c30cf12600 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "One of the great weaknesses of Science is this mistaken idea that if
an experiment contradicts the dominant theory, we should throw out the
theory instead of the experiment. Experiments can go awry. They can contain design flaws. They can be deliberately corrupted. They can be unconsciously
corrupted. They can be sele... |
1bf206e6-a413-4063-94a7-96a7d45a1f47 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | FDT defects in a realistic Twin Prisoners' Dilemma
*Thanks to Caspar Oesterheld for discussion and helpful comments, as well as Tristan Cook, James Faville, Daniel Kokotajlo and Lukas Finnveden.*
Summary
-------
[Updateless decision theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/updateless-decision-theory) (UDT)/[functional ... |
4f2a7aa5-fce5-497c-81dd-6d82fe739603 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Why Buddhism Is True
Robert Wright of The Moral Animal fame recently published a book about Buddhism. He titled it Why Buddhism Is True: The Science and Philosophy of Meditation and Enlightenment and in it seeks to demonstrate the connections between evolutionary psychology and Buddhism. In an appendix to... |
78c75f78-772a-450a-9199-f9cfb6eaa754 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
The following are some comments I gave on Open Philanthropy Senior Research Analyst Joe Carlsmith’s Apr. 2021 “[Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1smaI1lagHHcrhoi6ohdq3TYIZv0eNWWZMPEy8C8byYg/edit#)”, published... |
6fa435c5-de44-4014-b90a-eb600207d1aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How confident should we be?
What should a rationalist do about confidence? Should he lean harder towards
1. relentlessly psyching himself up to feel like he can do anything, or
2. having true beliefs about his abilities in all areas, coldly predicting his likelihood of success in a given domain?
I don't want to fa... |
d516fb8c-2974-4086-9e15-376b6d2c953b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Anthropic’s Sleeper Agents Paper
The recent paper from Anthropic is getting unusually high praise, much of it I think deserved.
The title is: Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training.
Scott Alexander also covers this, offering an excellent high level explanation, of both the re... |
d326c48f-93f2-40ab-811d-7b3ce78dd707 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | anchoring for coordination
Reading Schelling's the Strategy of Conflict, a useful social purpose for anchoring occurred to me.
First some background.
You and your husband/wife lose each other in the mall. The two of you have not before this agreed on a place to meet in case you lose each other. Still, there is a goo... |
1d89ce48-106c-4619-b323-7e14c2f05a9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Curiosity as a Solution to AGI Alignment
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) seems to be just around the corner. Or maybe not. Either way it might be humanity’s last ever invention— the greatest of all time or the ultimate doom machine. This is a “thinking-out-loud” piece about how we can avoid the doom machine scen... |
9ea137ad-346b-41ce-a941-95786e0b794f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Micropayments on the web, a realistic model
|
af4dc87a-5166-42d3-b491-5046844eacac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crisis of Faith case study: beyond reductionism?
What follows are some notes to self that I took while reading the first 7 pages of Stuart A. Kauffman's book Reinventing the Sacred. This was over 6 years ago, in January 2017.
I read those pages multiple times, pausing whenever I had some objections arise, and journal... |
4657efcf-f48f-494e-9063-82fb8a08dedd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Archetypal Transfer Learning: a Proposed Alignment Solution that solves the Inner & Outer Alignment Problem while adding Corrigible Traits to GPT-2-medium
(Previously titled as GPT-2 Shuts Down 386 Times Post Fine-Tuning with Archetypal Transfer Learning)
**TLDR**
--------
Archetypal Transfer Learning (ATL) uses arc... |
13881fc5-7ed7-4b9a-ac64-f4f10c5f5363 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tears Must Flow
This Thanksgiving I was with my girlfriend's family. Turkey was served. I held back tears for a little and finished my food. But I couldn't hold them back very long. I ended up going down to the basement to cry. I cried off and on for over an hour. My girlfriend held me. Eventually we went back upstair... |
0122143a-cd7c-44fc-96ab-d9906bd5d96b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Case Against Digital Sentience: A Summary
Note: This is meant as an accessible introduction to an interesting, novel, and not widely-known idea about digital sentience primarily due to Andrés Gómez Emilsson and David Pearce. See links at the bottom for the original arguments on which this summary is based. I do my... |
c5287974-1448-4e67-92b3-0fa1206ee928 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Truly Autonomous Machines Are Ethical
1
Truly Autonomous Machines Are Ethical
John Hooker
Carnegie Mellon University
Revised December 2018
Abstract
While many see the prospect of autonomous machines as threatening, autonomy may be
exactly what we want in a superintelligent machine. T here is a sens... |
b0eb69af-ba7b-4ed8-85e0-a91ed2d6d496 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on the Mythic Invitational
Previously / Compare and Contrast To: Reflections on the 2017 Magic Online Championship
Previously: Speculations on Duo Standard
Compare To (Frank Karsten at Channel Fireball): The Mythic Invitational Wasn’t Perfect—And It Was Still a Smashing Success
And Remember, Guys, You A... |
e592d2be-87e2-4b2b-8f21-1821d808a7ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do the reported levels of protection offered by various vaccines mean?
Pfizer is supposed to be "95% effective". Does this mean:
1. There is a 95% reduction in your odds of getting COVID (as measured by the gold standard, which I believe is aserological test?)
2. There is a 95% reduction in your odds of testing ... |
ffe55b12-4953-4e1b-ae64-f0716f6b0912 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Devil Made Me Write This Post Explaining Why He Probably Didn't Hide Dinosaur Bones
Recently, Scott Alexander has been blogging about how to figure out what theories to support when you can't easily perform empirical work to distinguish between them (here, here).
Scott is a nuanced thinker, but in this case I thi... |
1e00f97c-7dac-4c90-a454-6ef921e5c2e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Beyond Normal Accidents and High Reliability Organizations: The Need for an Alternative Approach to Safety in Complex Systems
Beyond Normal Accidents and High Reliability Organizations:
The Need for an Alternative Approach to Safety in Complex
Systems∗
Karen Marais, Nicolas Dulac, and Nancy Leveson
MIT
1 Introduction
... |
0cacb9a2-3769-41d7-9a51-d023b9e5e465 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Great Disembedding
> “Confucius and Lao-Tse were living in China, all the schools of Chinese philosophy came into being, including those of Mo Ti, Chuang Tse, Lieh Tzu and a host of others; India produced the Upanishads and Buddha and, like China, ran the whole gamut of philosophical possibilities down to material... |
4c89d9e7-02b8-49e4-9d65-102d752aa952 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Are Bacteria So Simple?
As far as we can tell, bacteria were the first lifeforms on Earth. Which means they’ve had a full four billion years to make something of themselves. And yet, despite their long evolutionary history, they mostly still look like this:
Bacteria belong to one major class of cells—prokaryotes... |
b74aab12-94da-4295-b483-2e9ab4127e6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | VLM-RM: Specifying Rewards with Natural Language
tl;dr
We show how to use Vision-Language Models (VLM), and specifically CLIP models, as reward models (RM) for RL agents. Instead of manually specifying a reward function, we only need to provide text prompts like “a humanoid robot kneeling” to instruct and provide feed... |
48af4e71-ff59-417f-9272-422b1416f090 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Humor) AI Alignment Critical Failure Table
The "Friendly AI Critical Failure Table" was originally posted by Eliezer in 2003; when I ran across a mention of it somewhere, I realized that a lot of people probably haven't seen this old classic yet.
(For people not familiar with the concept, "critical failure tables" a... |
f2919ee7-3e40-464b-a1c8-2ee5a9ad8b88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 100 Years Of Existential Risk
100 years ago Alfred Korzybski published The Manhood Of Humanity, the first book I'm aware of to analyze existential risks as a general category and try to diagnose their root causes. Using the primitive analytic tools available to him, Korzybski created a movement called General Semantic... |
1a1030dc-adca-4469-b218-2e2247b99355 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Guiding Policies with Language via Meta-Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Behavioral skills or policies for autonomous agents are typically specified in terms of reward functions (in the case of reinforcement learning) or demonstrations (in the case of imitation learning). However, both reward functions and d... |
eae1aebb-0f26-4c58-90e6-f0e0427de129 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three kinds of moral uncertainty
Related to: Moral uncertainty (wiki), Moral uncertainty - towards a solution?, Ontological Crisis in Humans.
Moral uncertainty (or normative uncertainty) is uncertainty about how to act given the diversity of moral doctrines. For example, suppose that we knew for certain that a new te... |
1bd0d48a-7ba5-4226-9f10-147eebfa41c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How is ChatGPT's behavior changing over time?
Surprised I couldn't find this anywhere on lesswrong so thought I'd add it. Seems like there would be some alignment implications of LLM behavior changing over time, at the least gaining a bit more context.
Someone else I spoke to about this immediately deflated it with r... |
ad7b3c39-026a-4e12-ac38-435dbd8554fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A personal explanation of ELK concept and task.
Here, I tend to give my personal explanation of ELK concept and task based on the terms that have already emerged (Still in progress.).
The original statement of ELK: Given input samples set X (we are interested in), targeted model M, and task (goal) G, could we obta... |
97b23cef-e448-4e70-9bbf-0343754b8a40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berkeley meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Berkeley meetup
WHEN: 19 September 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
This week's meetup will be at Zendo, as usual. See the mailing list, or contact me, for directions, see the mailing list at http://groups.google.com/group/bayarealesswrong or c... |
ebfa7b3d-73dd-48ef-967a-b71f08a18e74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ChatGPT is settling the Chinese Room argument
My observation of people's experiences with ChatGPT leads me to the conclusion that while for many people it appears to be passing Turing test, it is possible to demonstrate that it does not have any deeper understanding (i.e. that it does not contain useful representation... |
e4cba865-38f4-498a-957f-8b84b9943215 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Figureheads, ghost-writers and pseudonymous quant bloggers: the recent evolution of authorship in science publishing
|
0d56c595-cf07-4dd7-a7fb-65f821a2d95f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Refactoring Alignment (attempt #2)
[I've been](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7fkaJLzRiEr2hmSDi/re-define-intent-alignment) poking at Evan's [Clarifying Inner Alignment Terminology.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzecSPYxqRa5GCaSF/clarifying-inner-alignment-terminology) His post gives two separate pictures (the obj... |
78d20e5a-048d-489f-bfc2-1e4521f1f7af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow, The First Winter One
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow, The First Winter One
WHEN: 08 December 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
We will have a report about psychedelic drugs and a discussion session.
We will also have Prediction Market and Scavenger H... |
238cc01b-7bf6-45c2-a3c1-e3128db7116e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group Rationality Diary, April 1-15
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for April 1-15.
> It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
>
> * Established a useful new habit
> * Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some beli... |
ce0db41d-90c9-4da1-b792-53a0835d8ee0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kinnaird's truels
A "truel" is something like a duel, but among three gunmen. Martin Gardner popularized a puzzle based on this scenario, and there are many variants of the puzzle which mathematicians and game theorists have analyzed.
The optimal strategy varies with the details of the scenario, of course. One take-a... |
80bbdc8d-9e47-410e-82d3-56e449781a5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ransomware Payments Should Require a Sin Tax
A tax could largely mitigate the growing ransomware problem. The following is a proposal for a scheduled, gradual increase in the tax rate on ransom payments:
1. The ransom demanded by an attacker is a function of the expected likelihood that the victim will pay that amou... |
9dc95b9e-7650-4868-97b6-d6003e30bcb6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should Open Philanthropy Make an Offer to Buy OpenAI?
Update: seems like earlier today the OpenAI Board rejected Musk's proposal and said OpenAI is "not for sale."
Epistemic status: thought about it briefly; seems like a longshot that's probably not worth it but curious what people think of the possibility.
You mi... |
8894e2cb-8659-4aa6-a274-ecaec54d924c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Insufficiently Awesome
Apologies for the wasted time spent reading and replying to this post. Please disregard it.
I've been feeling non-awesome for a long time. I don't know if anyone else here feels the same way, but I'm going to assume that at least a few people do. I want to correct this horrible deficiency... |
ceb804d3-345e-4350-b836-f566e9701b06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open consultancy: Letting untrusted AIs choose what answer to argue for
Thanks to Ryan Greenblatt, Buck Shlegeris, Aryan Bhatt, and Akbir Khan for useful discussions and feedback on the draft of this post.
If AIs are potentially scheming and more knowledgeable than humans, and you want to answer a question, it may se... |
e44a9b11-5323-485e-a087-284d82a3562c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research Priorities for Artificial Intelligence: An Open Letter
The Future of Life Institute has published their document Research priorities for robust and beneficial artificial intelligence and written an open letter for people to sign indicating their support.
> Success in the quest for artificial intelligence has... |
ad6622d9-1cf3-4e8c-8ebc-fc3e91fac8aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: In favor of niceness, community, and civilisation
Scott, known on LessWrong as Yvain, recently wrote a post complaining about an inaccurate rape statistic.
Arthur Chu, who is notable for winning money on Jeopardy recently, argued against Scott's stance that we should be honest in arguments in a comment thread o... |
68bb3505-5660-4bf6-bb1f-2bef3ad14c83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Team is adjusting moderation policy
Lots of new users have been joining LessWrong recently, who seem more filtered for "interest in discussing AI" than for being bought into any particular standards for rationalist discourse. I think there's been a shift in this direction over the past few years, but it's gotten mu... |
763a747a-1a8d-4f99-93dd-279008ec80ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tracking emotions with kinesthetic memory
I've been trying to manage my negative thoughts and I've stumbled on an interesting technique. In order to increase my mindfulness of my ruminations and my thoughts. I started making a check mark on a piece of paper when I had specific thought. I didn't feel like I had the emo... |
44cbeca5-2c58-45bd-9223-b4226dac088b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-dialogue: Do behaviorist rewards make scheming AGIs?
Introduction
I have long felt confused about the question of whether brain-like AGI would be likely to scheme, given behaviorist rewards. …Pause to explain jargon:
* “Brain-like AGI” means Artificial General Intelligence—AI that does impressive things like in... |
e82046f6-2213-424e-9c13-b8a53351a673 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is General Intelligence "Compact"?
Epistemic Status
Exploratory and unconfident, but I believe important.
Acknowledgements
I'm grateful to "JustisMills", "sigilyph", "tomcatfish" and others for their valuable feedback on drafts of this post.
----------------------------------------
Introduction
By compac... |
92a30bf2-5295-4642-bb0a-39497e085705 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 9/29/22: The Jones Act Waver
The pandemic is over. Long live the Public Health Emergency.
> HHS is set to extend the Covid-19 public health emergency by its standing deadline of Oct. 13.
>
> If renewed on the deadline of Oct. 13, the next deadline would be Jan. 11, 2023.
>
> This would make for the 11th rene... |
59fd56e9-80b4-4974-a5e1-658186af73cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 20 December 2015 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
x-posted from list. Gathering in courtyard from 3:00pm, hard start 3:30pm - until closing (7:00 pm).
We'll be meeting to hang out, play games, an... |
eca92013-5f0f-4ecd-afd2-0178e3a060b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two-headed Go
I like playing Go, but of the games I play at all regularly it's probably the one where there are the most people who are better than me: a lot of people play go, and many of them play it a lot.
My dad and I are a similar level (~11kyu) and last week a family friend who's substantially better (~6kyu) wa... |
fc614ef2-331e-4a2f-b4e4-357ec32acd24 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Finding Skeletons on Rashomon Ridge
*A product of a* [*SERI MATS*](https://www.serimats.org/) *research sprint (taking 1.5 weeks).*
> Cannot yet assign positively to animal or vegetable kingdom, but odds now favour animal. Probably represents incredibly advanced evolution of radiata without loss of certain primitive... |
f7c3ace9-7972-4929-9614-1dd1db0f8b52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A map of LWers - find members of the community living near you.
There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm around LessWrong meetups, so I thought something like this might be interesting too. There is no need to register - just add your marker and keep an eye out for someone living near you.
Here's the link: https://www.z... |
3a2cbda5-f266-4575-ae91-7e0c72cd7e60 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Project Proposal: Considerations for trading off capabilities and safety impacts of AI research
There seems to be some amount of consensus that people working on AI safety (at least within fairly mainstream ML / AI paradigms) shouldn't worry much about the effects of their projects on AI capabilities. New researchers ... |
176dcac9-b37b-49a2-93ac-8e9241bd72a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Abstraction, Evolution and Gears
Meta: this project is wrapping up for now. This is the second of probably several posts dumping my thought-state as of this week.
It is an empirical fact that we can predict the day-to-day behavior of the world around us - positions of trees or buildings, trajectories of birds or cars... |
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