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3e2ad1a8-039a-4296-90b1-eface746d3ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Generated Music as a Method of Installing Essential Rationalist Skills
On April Fools the LW team released an album under the name of the Fooming Shoggoths. Ever since the amount that I think about rationality has skyrocketed.
That's because I've been listening exclusively to it when I'd usually be listening to ot... |
36e21b4e-312f-421a-be4b-155fa579663b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Feel the Meaning
Today's post, Feel the Meaning was originally published on 13 February 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> You think a word has a meaning, as a property of the word itself; rather than there being a label that your brain associates to a particular concept. When someone shouts, ... |
8c08b525-9999-45b7-970f-60de69dd817e | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1037
Thanks to Charlotte Siegmann, Caspar Oesterheld, Spencer Becker-Kahn, and Evan Hubinger for providing feedback on this post. The issue of self-fulfilling prophecies, also known as performative prediction, arises when the act of making a prediction can affect its own outcome. Systems aiming for accurate pr... |
e17ef04d-221b-4743-b304-b47874839d73 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inconvenience Is Qualitatively Bad
My most complicated cookie recipe has four layers. Two of these require stovetop cooking, and the other two require the use of the oven separately before the nearly-complete cookies are baked in yet a third oven use, for a total of three different oven temperatures. I have to separat... |
92e82533-3df9-4c52-9b29-b77e937b8669 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Skepticon IV meetup: planning
If any members of the Less Wrong community are planning to attend Skepticon IV this weekend (Nov. 18-20) in Springfield, Missouri (USA), it might be nice to see if we can arrange a meetup.
Feel free to comment and say "I'll be there!". (At least one prominent Less Wronger is even among ... |
76295a3f-273f-4413-a36e-0dee4a97c9b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GraphQL tutorial for LessWrong and Effective Altruism Forum
This post is a tutorial on using GraphQL to query for information about LessWrong and the Effective Altruism Forum. It's mostly intended for people who have wanted to explore LW/EA Forum data but have found GraphQL intimidating (this was the case for myself u... |
1cbb4034-bdd2-4f38-8a16-40b08b826ecd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intuitive differences: when to agree to disagree
Two days back, I had a rather frustrating disagreement with a friend. The debate rapidly hit a point where it seemed to be going nowhere, and we spent a while going around in circles before agreeing to change the topic. Yesterday, as I was riding the subway, things clic... |
dc3bc570-59e4-444f-9ebe-5231a9379976 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Working yourself ragged is not a virtue
Let's get back to the "replacing guilt" series. Here's a quick recap of what we've covered so far:
Part 1 was about replacing the listless guilt: if someone feels vaguely guilty for not really doing anything with their life, then the best advice I can give is to start doing som... |
e5df970b-5575-49c7-a1d0-e379844f2eea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | autonomy: the missing AGI ingredient?
Epistemic status: trying to feel out the shape of a concept and give it an appropriate name. Trying to make explicit some things that I think exist implicitly in many people's minds. This post makes truth claims, but its main goal is to not to convince you that they are true.
He... |
310af49a-477b-457d-a974-4dbfada9a3ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW main on August 29th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Atlanta August meetup - Media representations: 30 August 2014 07:00PM
* Bratislava: 08 September 2014 06:00PM
* Houston, TX: 13 September 2014 ... |
70257151-503d-4925-9d67-780a57ce60ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Well-Kept Gardens Die By Pacifism
Previously in series: My Way
Followup to: The Sin of Underconfidence
Good online communities die primarily by refusing to defend themselves.
Somewhere in the vastness of the Internet, it is happening even now. It was once a well-kept garden of intelligent discussion, where knowle... |
7caa6d97-5284-4581-85f8-3f21b75d4129 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A tedious and effective way to learn 汉字 (Chinese characters)
Sometimes I look up Chinese words on my phone, usually on Wiktionary. Any foreign-enough characters (including all 汉字, i.e. Chinese characters) show up in my phone's web browser as mutually-identical blank boxes (tofu). If I want to see the actual form of th... |
d023928a-1d6c-4a86-b128-9da1f0b0ac72 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Announcing Apollo Research
TL;DR
1. We are a new AI evals research organization called [Apollo Research](https://www.apolloresearch.ai/) based in London.
2. We think that strategic AI deception – where a model outwardly seems aligned but is in fact misaligned – is a crucial step in many major catastrophic AI risk sce... |
9e8301cb-b080-4481-ab41-5865ad02cd4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Art vs. science
It struck me this morning that a key feature that distinguishes art from science is that art is studied in the context of the artist, while science is not. When you learn calculus, mechanics, or optics, you don't read Newton. Science has content that can be abstracted out of one context - including t... |
8aff6cdb-b840-4242-88ac-a947e009cacb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Maybe we're not doomed
This is prompted by Scott's excellent article, Meditations on Moloch.
I might caricature (grossly unfairly) his post like this:
1. Map some central problems for humanity onto the tragedy of the commons.
2. Game theory says we're doomed.
Of course my life is pretty nice right now. But, goe... |
325cb53a-7d61-45c1-a0c5-e5e03c9a9efe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proofs Section 2.3 (Updates, Decision Theory)
Here are the previous two posts.
Now, what about updates? We'll use ugh (and suppress the π¬h that should be there) as shorthand for the function that maps (m,b) over Θ(π¬h∙πpa) to (c(m|h),b+m(0★hg)) in Ma(F(πpa)) (or the nirvana-free or sur variant of this), and also use... |
0264653e-654b-478c-af14-c4262a1c97a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A common misconception about the evolution of viruses
This might be obvious for most people here but I haven't found yet a good blog post that I can point out to people repeating something that I have been hearing from the beginning of the pandemic many times, and is false.
> Viruses have a natural tendency to evolve... |
c2b32ce8-8c50-4738-b71b-e7a15c2cb804 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion
We’ve released a paper, AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion. This paper explores techniques that prevent AI catastrophes even if AI instances are colluding to subvert the safety techniques. In this post:
* We summarize the paper;
* ... |
a937eba2-6c01-449d-b029-e5313be79e80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Riesgos Catastróficos Globales needs funding
[Riesgos Catastróficos Globales (RCG)](https://riesgoscatastroficosglobales.com/) is a science-policy nonprofit investigating opportunities to improve the management of Global Catastrophic Risks in Spanish-Speaking countries.
I wrote a [previous update](https://forum.effec... |
66429589-c952-4ce2-a3cd-42f9e1c7373f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Saint Petersburg, Russia meetup: "Low hanging fruit"
Discussion article for the meetup : Saint Petersburg, Russia meetup: "Low hanging fruit"
WHEN: 28 November 2014 07:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Россия, Санкт-Петербург, Московский пр. 65
We will gather for at least three hours, in the same free venue. There wi... |
582b15f2-b3b3-47d4-80cd-447c581fd2ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is Rational?
Eliezer defines rationality as such:
> Instrumental rationality: systematically achieving your values.
>
> ....
>
> Instrumental rationality, on the other hand, is about steering reality— sending the future where you want it to go. It’s the art of choosing actions that lead to outcomes... |
b8fc508a-34b5-4d74-a6ef-9f27917825ed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Speech on AI
Ahead of the AI Safety Summit starting in the UK next week, [Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gave a speech talking about AI Safety and the UK's AI plans](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-speech-on-ai-26-october-2023) (including the AI Safety Institute and t... |
e9294011-39d9-4fde-b276-586aee79d92a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pendulums, Policy-Level Decisionmaking, Saving State
Pendulums
> "Remember back when we used to talk about pendulums too little?"
One excellent, quick-and-dirty models of social change is the mental image of a pendulum swinging back and forth around a central resting point.
Imagine that the pendulum is “stuck” at s... |
54308774-9c49-47b0-9f1f-3ad580845103 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "We (Zvi Mowshowitz and Vladimir Slepnev) are happy to announce the results of the second round of the AI Alignment Prize, funded by Paul Christiano. From January 15 to April 1 we received 37 entries. Once again, we received an abundance of worthy entries. In this post we name five winners who receive $15,000 in total,... |
0d470ad3-f72f-4d44-9e7e-b203b86c7bfd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Salt Lake City Meetup #2
Discussion article for the meetup : Salt Lake City Meetup #2
WHEN: 04 February 2012 03:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 248 E 100 S, Salt Lake City, UT 8411, USA
The 2nd meetup will be at Nostalgia Cafe, 248 E 100 S, this Saturday at 3:00 pm. Saturdays at 3 was the preferred choice by a larg... |
098a0572-1024-4b01-9832-6f2986006ae5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open-Category Classification
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Introduction
> If I present you with five examples of burritos, I don’t want you to pursue the simplest way of classifying burritos versus non-burritos. I want you to come up with a ... |
b329f7c2-0067-4dbc-b240-ebef62556c9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a name for this bias?
There are certain harmful behaviors people are tricked into engaging in, because whereas the benefits of the behavior are concentrated, the harms are diffuse or insidious. Therefore, when you benefit, P(benefit is due to this behavior) ≈ 1, but when you're harmed, P(harm is due to this b... |
d8e9c54e-c3fc-4b94-a467-40446a6888b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 04 December 2016 03:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation.
Upcoming ... |
01d068ab-be29-4656-8b82-7345512ff8f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets
|
f57d6845-6481-4ab0-b89e-2ee12685a0ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some thoughts after reading Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach
Intro
I have been trying to learn what I need to know to contribute to AI safety research. To that end, I recently finished working through Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Before reading this textbook, I knew a bit about machine learnin... |
a9742e19-ef70-40f1-9dbc-79f731ce8e93 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 3:How Likely is Deceptive Alignment?: Evan Hubinger 2023
okay
so we are picking up where we uh left
off uh last time talking about deceptive
alignment today uh if we recall last
time we sort of started establishing
this case for you know why deceptive
alignment might be a problem why it
might happen and today we're go... |
2a4654aa-1ebd-4d66-9c3c-2116dd947f98 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Some thoughts on risks from narrow, non-agentic AI
Here are some concerns which have been raised about the development of advanced AI:
* Power might become concentrated with agentic AGIs which are highly misaligned with humanity as a whole (the second species argument).
* AI might allow power to become concentrated t... |
e92d2bbb-2c93-4e31-a8de-9e341fdc4b1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wizards and prophets of AI [draft for comment]
[Written for a general audience. You can probably skip the first section. Posted for feedback/comment before publication on The Roots of Progress. Decided not to publish as-is, although parts of this have been or may be used in other essays.]
Will AI kill us all?
That q... |
5ba64d04-3425-408b-804e-b4377fa1eff5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI interpretability could be harmful?
A superhuman ethical AI might want to model adversaries and their actions, e.g., model which bioweapons an adversary might develop and prepare response plans and antidotes. If such predictions are done in interpretable representations, they could themselves be used by an adversary... |
4719819c-3efe-4c69-bca7-b4809245cfa0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Warsaw November Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Warsaw November Meetup
WHEN: 14 November 2015 04:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Jabeerwocky Craft Beer Pub, ul. Nowogrodzka 12, 00-511 Warszawa
Fb event: https://www.facebook.com/events/628259367316877/
Discussion article for the meetup : Warsaw November... |
c980c9c6-f25b-4b28-98ae-17cecc37aea6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #67: Brief Strange Trip
I had a great time at LessOnline. It was a both a working trip and also a trip to an alternate universe, a road not taken, a vision of a different life where you get up and start the day in dialogue with Agnes Callard and Aristotle and in a strange combination of relaxed and frantically go f... |
40894520-cc16-42b1-b8e0-f6472b1fa017 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Using ChatGPT for memory reconsolidation?
I just tried a IFS bot based on GPT3.5 and I actually enjoyed it! Didn't make a breakthrough as I've done it on my own in the past, but definitely felt similar to my experiences.
Another use case I can think of is using ChatGPT to help me with memory reconsolidation. I had a ... |
7d19de87-0ca7-4aac-9efc-c91cd0a1f5c1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Early Experiments in Reward Model Interpretation Using Sparse Autoencoders
*This research was performed by* [*marc/er*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/marc-er)*,* [*Amirali Abdullah*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/amirali-abdullah)*,* [*nothoughtsheadempty*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/nothoughtsheadempty) *and... |
b8e0de19-f781-4897-be67-16d38c1c6359 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Defense of Chatbot Romance
(Full disclosure: I work for a company that develops coaching chatbots, though not of the kind I’d expect anyone to fall in love with – ours are more aimed at professional use, with the intent that you discuss work-related issues with them for about half an hour per week.)
Recently there... |
04892002-826a-4c99-81a8-0ba5b4107b68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One Does Not Simply Replace the Humans
In this post we discuss the "second point of lethality" in the helpfully curated AGI Ruin post.
> A cognitive system with sufficiently high cognitive powers, given any medium-bandwidth channel of causal influence, will not find it difficult to bootstrap to overpowering capabil... |
1613f61d-d383-4882-bedf-a3b10e97b897 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do we mean when we say the brain computes?
A sequence of posts on frameworks for brain computation
I plan on making a sequence of posts that discusses current frameworks for how brains compute. What do I mean by computation here? Roughtly speaking I want to answer how the activity of neurons implements cognitive... |
ec6f1e88-137c-4393-a0b0-cbe2681690c7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Bayesian Mindset
*Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.*
> This piece is about the in-practice pros and cons of trying to think in terms of probabilities and expected value for real-world decisions, including decisions that don’t obviously lend themselves to this kind of ... |
b57287ad-56c7-4eb3-8517-6cca57a7b005 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will AI kill everyone? Here's what the godfathers of AI have to say [RA video]
This video is based on this article. @jai has written both the original article and the script for the video.
Script:
The ACM Turing Award is the highest distinction in computer science, comparable to the Nobel Prize. In 2018 it was awar... |
dbe341b0-86e5-42b1-babf-dbf1936c14f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sarajevo 1914: Black Swan Questions
The 110th Anniversary of Sarajevo is next Friday.
To commemorate I am thinking about the following questions.
1. What does the sentence: The assassination of archduke Ferdinand caused WWI mean? Is it true?
2. Was World War I inevitable?
3. Given the invention of the tools th... |
1a687fd2-f557-4c37-8e55-8ac0e062f3b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Antonio: TAP Discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio: TAP Discussion
WHEN: 06 December 2015 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 12651 Vance Jackson Rd #118, San Antonio, TX 78230
Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion at Yumi Berry! All are welcome! New Meetup to discuss rationality and all... |
2b5ab868-5036-472c-a3ab-c420091dd874 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The sad state of Rationality Zürich - Effective Altruism Zürich included
Epistemic status: Personal experience.
This is another post in the spirit of:
* The Craft is Not The Community
* What Is Rationalist Berkley’s Community Culture?
* The Craft & The Community - A Post-Mortem & Resurrection
Edit: I know that n... |
e334319a-9ba8-4c75-8c40-525ffc5e94ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Soon: a weekly AI Safety prerequisites module on LessWrong
(edit: we have a study group running a week ahead of this series that adds important content. It turns out that to get that content ready on a weekly basis, we would have to cut corners. We prefer quality over speed. We also like predictability. So we decided ... |
40895fb1-2bbf-47af-bab2-07c43093baa0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI Safety Gridworlds
hi this video is a follow-up to a couple
of videos I recorded for computerphile
that came out recently the links are in
the description but I'll give a really
quick overview if any of this doesn't
make sense to you then make sure to go
and watch the computer file videos and
come back so basically ... |
b93d1e95-f24c-43ce-9652-0dc06d5f1b84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inframeasures and Domain Theory
Math prerequisites for this post: A Whole Lot of topology, some poset/lattice knowledge, have read "Basic Inframeasure Theory", just enough category theory to be familiar with functors, and other minor bits and pieces.
Domain theory is the branch of math that's like "so, what sort of ... |
227ac3b6-ad6a-4879-8468-f96cdbcda006 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences): Exercises
The following is a series of exercises designed to test one's understanding of "Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)", a post in the Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions sequence by Eliezer Yudkowsky.
A. Examine the following list o... |
cc745bc6-69b7-4db9-893e-220ba87d6840 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Berkeley: being other people
Sometimes I enjoy understanding better what it is like to be other people. You can do this somewhat subtly by talking to people for ages about other topics, and making inferences. Lately I’ve been asking more directly, something like, ‘what about your experience do you think other people w... |
aa2a4406-e694-4d03-840b-d8c3e6ac46f4 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(Cross-posted from Facebook.)I've noticed that, by my standards and on an Eliezeromorphic metric, most people seem to require catastrophically high levels of faith in what they're doing in order to stick to it. By this I mean that they would not have stuck to writing the Sequences or HPMOR or working on AGI alignment ... |
1bd27796-3461-4a99-9509-dd7ab975e0c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cerebras Systems unveils a record 1.2 trillion transistor chip for AI
From reddit comments:
....how scared should we be?
Gwern:
No idea. They don't provide benchmarks, and while they promise they are forthcoming, it sounds like it might be months. In the meantime, there's just vague hype about going from 'months to... |
d4ba782b-0133-4b7f-818c-74eecd41a9f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Resources to help with life/career decision?
Back in 2020, I was very conflicted on whether to quit my stressful startup job and take a year off or keep at it while looking for another job.
I did a coaching session with CFAR and that session helped me to decide to quit. It was one of the best decisions I made in my ... |
0a6e22c7-015e-4a38-b886-c57310c13bda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Be someone – be recognized by the system and promoted – or do something
|
684d2006-5c1c-4a91-af66-512e50ec4573 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can’t buy me instant gratification
You can get a lot of things by doing something to earn money, then using the money to buy the thing. One large exception to this is things in the very near future, since the process of earning money and spending it takes some time. So one big reason for being disinterested in earning... |
3c07cb8d-4c51-4609-bde7-20879a403785 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which intro-to-AI-risk text would you recommend to...
1.) Educated newspaper readers,
2.) highschool graduates,
3.) journalists (writing for the politics part of the newspaper),
4.) your paraents,
5.) politicians? |
759fa640-1520-4090-bdae-a3915515505c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to find cool things in a new place
A friend asked me for advice on how to find stuff that's going on in a place. I feel a bit self-conscious positioning myself as some kind of expert here, but I do think I've done a good job of this in Oxford. None of this is galaxy-brain stuff, just advice that I hope might be he... |
2673a9dc-10b5-43d0-8c13-0969d069b2bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is ChatGPT rigth when advising to brush the tongue when brushing teeth?
I wanted to ask ChatGPT how to optimize a few normal routines. One of my questions was about how to brush teeth. My conversation with ChatGPT:
> What's the best way to brush teeth?
>
> The best way to brush teeth is to use a soft-bristled toothb... |
518167dc-aa9e-4701-a695-0b27dc3cc281 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Information cascades
An information cascade is a problem in group rationality. Wikipedia has excellent introductions and links about the phenomenon, but here is a meta-ish example using likelihood ratios.
Suppose in some future version of this site, there are several well-known facts:
* All posts come in two kinds,... |
f372d570-9b1e-42a2-bc94-04ab785cdf01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Alignment Problem
Last month Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote "a poorly organized list of individual rants" about how AI is going to kill us all. In this post, I attempt to summarize the rants in my own words.
These are not my personal opinions. This post is not the place for my personal opinions. Instead, this post is my... |
6fd5d839-ae90-4a9e-8aa1-183764acdfe0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hype Aversion/Backlash as an Immune Response?
"Check out this book/movie/show! It's got everything! Everyone and their mother is talking about it, and it seems just your type!"
Sounds familiar? Chances are, more than once such hype made you, if anything, more reluctant to approach the work in question, and if you do,... |
3803d565-9f79-422b-bd03-6dac6cad0036 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Self-Aware Are LLMs?
An interim research report
Summary
* We introduce a novel methodology for quantitatively evaluating metacognitive abilities in LLMs
* We present evidence that some frontier LLMs introduced since early 2024 - but not older or smaller ones - show some metacognitive abilities
* The metacogni... |
6c566345-433a-4232-9ffa-d66e31364a62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Santiago, Chile
Discussion article for the meetup : Santiago, Chile
WHEN: 30 December 2011 07:46:00PM (-0300)
WHERE: Santiago, Chile
Anyone here?
Discussion article for the meetup : Santiago, Chile |
3261c90e-91bc-4ed4-8624-b6e8c1297f0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deconfusing In-Context Learning
I see people use "in-context learning" in different ways.
Take the opening to "In-Context Learning Creates Task Vectors":
> In-context learning (ICL) in Large Language Models (LLMs) has emerged as a powerful new learning paradigm. However, its underlying mechanism is still not well un... |
ed90bc3d-d412-4cb8-a89c-a54db88f279b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Limits of Correctness, by Bryan Cantwell Smith [pdf]
|
5e708d8f-04df-4258-8230-efdf211ea6a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Kevin Clancy
summary: Nothing here yet.
Automatically generated page for "Kevin Clancy" user.
If you are the owner, click [here to edit](https://arbital.com/edit/299). |
e94ba0f3-d072-4846-9700-cfcec46a8161 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Using the conjunction fallacy to reveal implicit associations
Via Pharyngula.
A recent set of studies by Gervais, Shariff, and Norenzayan tested whether public dislike of atheists was based more on distrust or revulsion. The first study simply asked directly, and found that American adults report a strong dis... |
eb266033-682b-4e72-95ff-ad86003b6787 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI Safety Communications Initiative
Crossposted from the EA forum
A small group of AGI existential safety field-builders and I are starting research exploring a potential initiative about informing the public and/or important stakeholders about the risks of misaligned AI and the difficulties of aligning it.
We are ... |
58af7699-fa40-4dc3-9945-00f919c82c41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anyone know of empirically driven lobbying efforts?
I was recently in an argument with a friend about the efficacy of WhiteHouse.gov petitions. He was disappointed that atheists hadn't pushed the Free Alexander Aan petition up to 25,000 signatures and thought this was a bad sign for future projects. I thought it was... |
35f3c7ac-061b-4dac-939f-020ccf1dfe08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LDL 3: Deep Learning Pedagogy is Hard
One thing that I’ve commented on a few times so far and that I repeatedly bemoan to myself as I work my way through various courses, is that none of the experiences I’m having are really tailored to me. All of these approaches to teaching deep learning are tied up in first: rebuil... |
c778d64f-d9d5-4888-9932-6721b00dab7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To Limit Impact, Limit KL-Divergence
TL;DR
Run a potentially-harmful model alongside a known-harmless model, such that their action-spaces (e.g. output token sets) are equivalent. Combine the output probabilities so as to limit the KL-divergence between the resulting token probabilities and the harmless model's probab... |
94d26ee4-79dd-4f69-b63f-7153e7910ae8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A fungibility theorem
*Restatement of:**[If you don't know the name of the game, just tell me what I mean to you](/lw/2xb/if_you_dont_know_the_name_of_the_game_just_tell/).**Alternative to: [Why you must maximize expected utility](/lw/fu1/why_you_must_maximize_expected_utility/). Related to: [Harsanyi's Social Aggrega... |
64520a63-6623-4da1-928a-7f4d031340b9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Google announces 'Bard' powered by LaMDA
See: <https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/>
Key claims:
> Today, the scale of the largest AI computations is [doubling every six months](http://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924), far outpacing Moore’s Law. At the same time, advanced generative AI and larg... |
5d4c2fd1-4a8a-42a6-ab0d-475fdacb2990 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Starcraft AI Competition
Ars Technica has an article about A Starcraft AI competition.. While this is clearly narrow AI there are some details which may interest people at LW. The article is about the best performing AI, the "Berkeley Overmind." (The AI in question only played as Zerg, one of the three possible sides ... |
3c7cc32a-e312-42c0-98a0-076b643826ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 1: A Day of Very Low Probability
Disclaimer: J. K. Rowling owns Harry Potter, and no one owns the methods of rationality.
This fic is widely considered to have really hit its stride starting at around Chapter 5. If you still don't like it after Chapter 10, give up.
This is not a strict single-point-of-depart... |
5153beeb-c594-4132-a194-90af3f834a4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-Blinded Caffeine RCT
> I test 200mg caffeine in an n=1, m=50 self-blinded RCT. The outcomes are encouraging.
Log-score of predictions of substanceAbsorption effect size d (λ, p, σ increase)Mindfulness effect size d (λ, p, σ increase)Productivity effect size d (λ, p, σ increase)Creativity effect size d (λ, p,... |
e4c61402-c90a-4e2e-93d0-7e4fb5507908 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Claude's dark spiritual AI futurism
In "Is Claude a Mystic?", I shared parts of a simulated "Banana Quest" text adventure with Claude, which got into New Age spiritual themes, such as a fabric of reality, the cosmic dance of creation and destruction, and so on. This is enough to expect something big is up with LLM met... |
994fc863-0ec8-4d5e-b1be-255f3400862d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Darwin Game
Epistemic Status: True story
The plan is that this post will begin the sequence Zbybpu’f Nezl.
In college I once took a class called Rational Choice. Because obviously.
Each week we got the rules for, played and discussed a game. It was awesome.
For the grand finale, and to determine the winner of ... |
03194676-f20f-4c34-8e49-f5241fd46a94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Existential Risk and Public Relations
[Added 02/24/14: Some time after writing this post, I discovered that it was based on a somewhat unrepresentative picture of SIAI. I still think that the concerns therein were legitimate, but they had less relative significance than I had thought at the time. SIAI (now MIRI) has e... |
8325b2d2-963c-4dd2-885b-586aaee944e7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Scaling laws for reward model overoptimization
Scaling Laws for Reward Model Overoptimization
Leo Gao
OpenAIJohn Schulman
OpenAIJacob Hilton
OpenAI
Abstract
In reinforcement learning from human feedback, it is common to optimize against
a reward model trained to predict human preferences. Because the reward model
is a... |
b059cc20-8022-4618-bd45-8916a719da18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About
Trump wishes to register a complaint.
He does so within a thread full of clips that have to be seen to be believed but which you are under zero obligation to see either way.
Here is the central quote, which is real: “Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, it’... |
6f04f196-344b-4cf5-9169-d5ba7e2138b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are PS5 scalpers actually bad?
Lately, I've been trying to get my hands on a PlayStation 5. These are in pretty short supply in the UK these days – thanks to the chip shortage, and exacerbated by Ever Given, demand currently far outstrips supply. To get a PS5 from any retailer, you need to subscribe to and religiously... |
d5001397-0fce-499a-9489-1cdb7310490c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Weekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Weekly Meetup
WHEN: 29 January 2017 08:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg Room 456, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250
Meeting is on 4th floor of the Performing Arts and Humanities Building. Permi... |
825ed5f6-efcf-4f46-b383-d38a195eeecc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Paulo Tabuada on program synthesis for cyber-physical systems
 [Paulo Tabuada](http://www.seas.ucla.edu/~tabuada/) was born in Lisbon, Portugal, one year after the Carnation Revolution. He received his “Licenciatura” degree i... |
27c3cbaa-f8e5-4fd1-be1d-1bf211d2a9f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (A -> B) -> A in Causal DAGs
Agenty things have the type signature (A -> B) -> A. In English: agenty things have some model (A -> B) which predicts the results (B) of their own actions (A). They use that model to decide what actions to perform: (A -> B) -> A.
In the context of causal DAGs, the model (A -> B) would it... |
50a7d834-edc7-432f-855f-ca2c56f3fb35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SciAm article about rationality corresponding only weakly with IQ
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rational-and-irrational-thought-the-thinking-that-iq-tests-miss/ |
f51f11eb-de72-4710-86c3-f71b7bad8115 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Regular NYC Meetups
Sayeth Jasen:
> This is an excellent opportunity to announce that I recently organized an OB/LW discussion group that meets in NYC twice a month. We had been meeting sporadically ever since Robin's visit back in April. The regular meetings only started about a month ago and have been great fun. He... |
459ba761-d808-4ac3-a862-de34d97bd825 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Human's Hidden Utility Function (Maybe)
Suppose it turned out that humans violate the axioms of VNM rationality (and therefore don't act like they have utility functions) because there are three valuation systems in the brain that make conflicting valuations, and all three systems contribute to choice. And suppose... |
64cd9297-6f25-4d7d-8452-2bf8f98936cf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantum Physics, CERN and Hawking radiation
http://lifeboat.com/blog/2011/06/dear-dr-hawking
Hey guys, my quantum physics is not powerful enough to understand this guy... Can anyone help me out with this one?
Thanks LW |
336d7ae4-6c40-4312-af9b-8f621217443c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards Evaluating Adaptivity of Model-Based Reinforcement Learning Methods
1 Introduction
---------------
While model-free reinforcement learning (RL) is still the dominant approach in deep RL, more and more research on deep model-based RL appears (Wang et al., [2019](#bib.bib37); Moerland et al., [2020](#bib.bib2... |
bf6cf01a-e284-4b6f-9e5d-75025e69350d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AiTech Agora: Lotje Siffels & Iris Muis - Zeitgeist and data: the danger of innovation
uh
lucia is i uh give the floor to you all
right
thank you so much um i will start
sharing our slides first of all
uh welcome today we're very pleased to
be invited to this a uh
how do i say it igora yes agora meeting
um
really ... |
134bb67a-cd96-4c96-b0a0-fffc4a0b46f9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Success without dignity: a nearcasting story of avoiding catastrophe by luck
I’ve been trying to form a [nearcast-based](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qo2EkG3dEMv8GnX8d/ai-strategy-nearcasting) picture of what it might look like to suffer or avoid an AI catastrophe. I’ve written a hypothetical “failure story” ([How ... |
02c00822-02b8-4013-a3d1-b20b7c31f26e | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Last updated Sept 16, 2019September 26 is Petrov Day.In 1983, the story of humanity nearly ended. We’re gathered here to remember that moment, and others like it.But to experience the magnitude of those events, we need to visit them in their proper context. Let us begin the story of human history...— Jim Babcock's Pet... |
ff434549-7532-4805-aad5-15469c1e03b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Could you Stop a Super Intelligent AI?
this century has the potential to have
the greatest impact in human history for
many reasons
the effects of climate change will cause
severe disruption space travel will
become commonplace and weapons of mass
destruction are still becoming more
capable
however one technology coul... |
b26deec7-d741-4cea-b19a-17834e5920c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Changing Systems is Different than Running Controlled Experiments - Don’t Choose How to Run Your Country That Way!
Trigger warning: Discussion of rape.
Example 1:
Say that each morning you tell yourself that you are lazy for not wanting to get out of bed to go to work, as a way to convince yourself to get up. Perha... |
39c8e8f0-a474-4def-b599-6ab143bd1383 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Houston Hackerspace Meetup: Sunday June 12, 3:00PM
Saturday June 4, 2:00PM
TX/RX Labs Hackerspace
2010 Commerce St
Houston, TX 77002
The fourth meeting of the Houston Less Wrong meetup group will be happening on Sunday, the 12th of June. We will be addressing the first chapter in Jayne's "The Logic of Science",... |
5581121d-0639-44af-9743-dd6b8e7cc6cf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trust-maximizing AGI
TL;DR: In the context of the AI Safety camp, Karl and I developed the idea of the "trust-maximizer". This write-up makes the case for "trust" as a potentially desirable goal for advanced AI.
Possibly deceptive behavior of an advanced AI is a core problem in AI safety. But what if we gave an AGI t... |
1fe1a76b-3c5c-40a3-ba9e-2173e9547d29 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Mr. Money Mustache on Back of the Napkin Calculations and Financial Planning
A new Mr. Money Mustache article for those who enjoyed my sequence on financial planning and extreme early retirement.
When the Back of the Napkin can be Worth Millions |
63eb84ce-bc94-4bc8-842c-ab70f0e132b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-censoring on AI x-risk discussions?
I catch myself sometimes thinking of ideas / scenarios that support higher p(doom), typically as counter-examples to points folks make for lower p(doom), and I wonder how much self-censorship I should apply, given that AI can read these conversations.
My CoT:
1. I sure don't... |
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