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72c8ae5f-4343-4817-bf86-dac5588c1905 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence Can't Solve the Problem of Deciding What You'll Do
Superintelligence can solve all problems, even as it won't necessarily do so. But not quite. In the modern world, you exist within physics, and all you do obeys its laws. Yet it's still you who decides what you do. If there is a simulation of your be... |
07aea5bd-09b6-42cd-bfb8-35d9f269b028 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: Superrationality and DAOs
The cryptocurrency ethereum is mentioned here occasionally, and I'm not surprised to see an overlap in interests from that sphere. Vitalik Buterin has recently published a blog post discussing some ideas regarding how smart contracts can be used to enforce superrationality in the real w... |
302d24dc-9357-4d8f-a630-f291936ca6d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Memory reconsolidation for self-affection
Last Thursday, I realized that none of the people who ever hurt me did it because there was anything fundamentally wrong with me.
I don’t mean that as in “realized intellectually”, I mean as in “realized emotionally so that in any shame-tinged memory that I could think of, th... |
c2dcb8a3-1c14-4d1d-8015-7ec59dd8a8f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Baby-Eating Aliens (1/8)
Today's post, The Baby-Eating Aliens (1/8) was originally published on 30 January 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Future explorers discover an alien civilization, and learns something unpleasant about their civilization.
Discuss the post here (rather than in t... |
f4194b34-55db-421a-8e2e-700c60d0d764 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Should We Ban Physics?
Today's post, Should We Ban Physics? was originally published on 21 July 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> There is a chance, however remote, that novel physics experiments could destroy the earth. Is banning physics experiments a good idea?
Discuss the post here (rat... |
3a1bba77-0b65-4e06-b1ce-fbf82b237f23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shane Legg's Thesis: Machine Superintelligence, Opinions?
I searched the posts but didn't find a great deal of relevant information. Has anyone taken a serious crack at it, preferably someone who would like to share their thoughts? Is the material worthwhile? Are there any dubious portions or any sections one might wa... |
41d45221-f3f9-4a39-8d6d-219e7cb9bebd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The accumulation of knowledge: literature review
Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome financial support .
Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.
----------------------------------------
This post is part of a sequence on the accumulation of knowledge. Our goal... |
06a90cb5-73d8-4cf5-a87c-e4175f9da361 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | When is it appropriate to use statistical models and probabilities for decision making ?
I enjoy reading rationalist and effective altruist blogs. Members of the community usually back their arguments with data and/or other evidence and tend to be scientifically literate. And although no one is a perfect, detached bel... |
860a082b-caf5-4c08-b49d-557f83c5cc77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recommended
I read everything ever written.
Oh, I see a typo in your doc, let me help you fix that. Also you could rewrite the whole thing like... yeah, just click "accept", thanks for letting me help!
Anyways, when I was reading everything, I also read about a future AI using diamondoid nanobots with special neurot... |
78945546-6ef3-48cb-b250-6d0f9038f3f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are we all misaligned?
The orthogonality thesis separates intelligence and goals, constraining the notion of intelligence to instrumental rationality and allowing for any combination of general intelligence and a goal system. And the other way around, such a description should apply to any possible agency. For any age... |
ece11825-e8ab-479b-8a30-2785db087b64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GJP on AGI
Has the Good Judgement Project ever made a prediction about AGI timelines? |
bd58b991-5b75-4efc-aefa-0d20037c5fbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Just One Sentence
So apparently Richard Feynman once said:
> If, in some cataclysm, all scientific knowledge were to be destroyed, and only one sentence passed on to the next generation of creatures, what statement would contain the most information in the fewest words? I believe it is the atomic hypothesis (or atomi... |
261935f6-1425-4bf6-bcbb-98420063286d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress on automated mathematical theorem proving?
In a recent comment thread I expressed skepticism as to whether there's been meaningful progress on general artificial intelligence.
I hedged because of my lack of subject matter knowledge, but thinking it over, I realized that I do have relevant subject matter know... |
2e8b80ec-0be1-4f02-b086-18bfaed8fcdb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Giving Tuesday 2020
As they did in 2018 and 2019, Facebook is running donation matching for Giving Tuesday. The match is "real" in that you can choose which charity receives the money, but not "real" in that the money will go to some charity whether or not you donate. Because I think some charities are much higher pri... |
f5a774bb-5c9c-49ce-bfe3-9ab549c84666 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can we stop using the word "rationalism"?
You see, I've seen the word "rationalism" used to mean all five of these things at different times:
* The belief that we should come to know the world through reason and experimentation, shunning intuition.
* The belief that we should come to know the world through reason a... |
7b44f897-9d95-41e5-8d77-8fc12af26005 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metrics to evaluate a Presidency
I got lots of helpful comments in my first post, so I'll try a second: I want to develop a list of criteria by which to evaluate a presidency. Coming up with criteria and metrics on the economy is pretty easy, but I'd like to ask for suggestions on proxies for evaluating:
* Racial... |
0d8932b8-d7dc-4f95-b018-892ed087ac01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Work on Bayesian fitting of AI trends of performance?
I remember seeing a report on trends of performance in AI. It would be quite useful for me to find it again. As I remember it, the author looked at things like ImageNet top5 accuracy and extrapolated how it increased over time.
I can't remember the author, though ... |
19534b03-0109-4f48-bc0e-62084629113f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The AIQ Meta-Testbed: Pragmatically Bridging Academic AI Testing and Industrial Q Needs
1. Introduction
----------------
The number of AI applications is constantly growing. Across diverse domains, enterprises want to harness AI technology to explore the lucrative promises expressed by AI advocates. As AI becomes p... |
32af6ff7-8861-4c84-8f40-446c96b03212 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Berkeley, Madison, Melbourne, Norwich
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* First Norwich UK Meetup Sunday 1 April 11am: 01 April 2012 11:00AM
* Brussels meetup: 14 April 2012 11:00AM
* Shanghai Less Wrong Meetup: 15 April 2012 10:36PM
* Sydney meetup - Biased pandem... |
aa718351-5280-419c-b723-e3efd85f360b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to provide a simple example to the requirement of falsifiability in the scientific method to a novice audience?
(I once posted this question on academia.stackexchange, but it was deemed to be off topic there. I hope it would be more on-topic here)
I would like to introduce the basics of the scientific method t... |
3a32bd81-ceed-47c3-adf4-f8cae29273c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ten small life improvements
I've accumulated a lot of small applications and items that make my life incrementally better. Most of these ultimately came from someone else's recommendation, so I thought I'd pay it forward by posting ten of my favorite small improvements.
(I've given credit where I remember who introdu... |
182c4ad9-a912-474c-ada3-22e7fd4d30c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weak repugnant conclusion need not be so repugnant given fixed resources
I want to thank Irgy for this idea.
As people generally know, total utilitarianism leads to the repugnant conclusion - the idea that no matter how great a universe X would be, filled without trillions of ultimately happy people having ultimately... |
589a5f9d-3f49-4c7a-9bec-0c4c5225eda0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Curiosity checklist: Looking for feedback
I'm helping CMR create a 'rationality checklist'. The basic idea is this:
* Answer a series of clear-cut, unambiguous yes/no questions that reflect your current level of rationality; obtain a score.
* Test again in the future as a means of measuring progress in your ration... |
e6472cf4-43c6-4780-aaeb-475ebf6957ae | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I could have been a hero in another world.I will call the friend of mine who commissioned that picture Fluttershy. They posted it shortly before they killed themselves in early March. They weren't the easiest person to help, but I should have done more than I did. By the end, they were pretty isolated and I was one of... |
2a4ba37c-b321-41f8-b897-d7627723f60e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Murphy’s Quest Ch 2: Empiricism
How did the cunning Dark Warlock Emperor Murphy solve the Thousand Kobold Challenge?
I ask my bunkmate in the morning to camp a spawn point together. My thinking: if we can both hit the Kobold before he gets a chance to attack, we won’t take damage. That way we can grind all day.
Of c... |
608b2cf0-5514-45a8-9440-1c0f36491832 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | GPT-3 x CLIP worldbuilding
---
Table of Contents* + [`a hospital. Dilapidated and abandoned, overrun by vegetation`](#a-hospital-dilapidated-and-abandoned-overrun-by-vegetation)
+ [`a hospital hallway. Dilapidated and abandoned, overrun by vegetation`](#a-hospital-hallway-dilapidated-and-abandoned-overrun-by-vegetat... |
c863291b-0d1c-4d6a-905a-645856fddca4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | video games > IQ tests
IQ tests are a type of test given to people. What makes them different from other tests given to people?
Is it "consistency of results on a single IQ test type"? Not really. Wikipedia says:
> For modern tests, the confidence interval can be approximately 10 points and reported standard error o... |
855a1076-d798-466f-b955-b64b023bf9e8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Why is pseudo-alignment "worse" than other ways ML can fail to generalize?
I have only just read the [mesa optimizers paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1906.01820.pdf), and I don't understand what it adds to the pre-existing picture that "ML can fail to generalize outside the train distribution and this is bad."
The discu... |
07817909-4872-4067-908f-dc24f6cf0788 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Reinventing Explanation: Data Presentation as Intuition Pump
A great article by Michael Nielsen on failures of intuition and ways to present data more effectively so that we don't get caught by those failures. It reminded me of concepts like log odds in common use around here, and also to the recent discussion ... |
acaaba01-4f49-462c-9e7e-34d0efa97040 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do Timeless Decision Theorists reject all blackmail from other Timeless Decision Theorists?
I have a technical question about Timeless Decision Theory, to which I didn’t manage to find a satisfactory answer in the published MIRI papers.
(I will just treat TDT, UDT, FDT and LDT as the same thing, because I do not unde... |
dc1c196e-65f9-486e-9bce-58db466422f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Design 2
This is part 14 of 30 of Hammertime. Click here for the intro.
> I am a finger pointing to the moon. Don’t look at me; look at the moon.
Rationalists drone on and on about how our fake our models are, how we gesture at and point to deep inarticulate truths, and – to shoulder some of the blame – the importan... |
6f19c6b6-4af6-487e-b248-f6ad874dc4d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NEFFA Should Allow Small Children
When I was little we would go to the NEFFA festival every year. I loved seeing the dancing: contra dance, international, dance performances. I loved listening to the music: bands, performances, hallway jamming. I loved eating the cake the Lithuanian booth would sell. My cousins would ... |
d7d93771-4233-4aa7-b183-49b5b900728b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking suggestions: Less Wrong Biology 101
I’ve been a reader and occasional commenter here for a while now, but previously have not had a solid idea of what I could or wanted to contribute to the community in posting. In light of recent comments stating an interest in more posts that offer concrete, factual informa... |
41abf2a5-5bef-4e44-83ed-1c31b3f1e533 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 2021 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison
*cross-posted to the EA forum* [*here*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BNQMyWGCNWDdP2WyG/2021-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison)*.*
**Introduction**
================
As in [2016](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nSot23... |
bb0fb89e-3e03-4ad5-8ff8-63821f4b8302 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How popular is ChatGPT? Part 1: more popular than Taylor Swift
Harlan Stewart, 23 February 2023
Introduction
Public attention toward AI seems much higher after the release of ChatGPT at the end of November. But how much higher is it? To better understand this, I looked at search data from Google Trends about ChatGPT... |
28ae9e9d-639e-4edd-b12e-54dad809f3bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arguments and relevance claims
The following once happened: I posted a link to some article on an IRC channel. A friend of mine read the article in question and brought up several criticisms. I felt that her criticisms were mostly correct though not very serious, so I indicated agreement with them.
Later on the same... |
bb83d157-6530-431c-adc1-369b095b3f33 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Risk Microdynamics Survey
If you are interested in AI Risk, could you kindly consider filling out a short (10 min) survey on AI Risk Microdynamics? The hope is that I will be able to use your responses to inform an economic model of that risk in the near future, which I think would fill an important gap in our unde... |
044eed79-2dcb-4209-9ad7-43e2796b8ba2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 0L - Theory [rough early thoughts]
well we're going to be diving in to
trying to figure out how transformers
mechanistically work
but
i'm sure you'll be shocked to learn that
uh transformers are pretty complicated
to think about and so rather than going
and starting uh with uh
full-on large transformers and
especially... |
28539f44-27d5-4049-b68e-fca16ba0f562 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Matt Yglesias on AI Policy
Yglesias is a widely read center-left journalist. Co-founder of Vox, ex-NYT. Note the implicit invitation: “I also try to make it clear to people who are closer to the object-level work that I’m interested in writing columns on AI policy if they have ideas for me, but they mostly don’t.”
Fu... |
3dd88859-b245-4bdf-9e34-957ae9654de1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some thoughts on David Roodman’s GWP model and its relation to AI timelines
[Cross posted from the EA forum.]
I’ve been working on a report (see blog) assessing possible trajectories for GWP out to 2100. A lot of my early work focussed on analysing a paper of my colleague David Roodman. Roodman fits a growth model to... |
571dff9b-31bf-488f-8ba7-f8d3b672dfbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Digital People FAQ
Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"
This is a companion piece to Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal, which is the third in a series of posts about the possibility that we are in the most important century for humanity.
This pie... |
18b8f565-021f-44cc-a708-aa966f0ffbe5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Technique of Pure Reason
Looking a little ahead into the future, I think LLMs are going to stop being focused on knowledgeable, articulate[1] chatbots, but instead be more efficient models that are weaker in these areas than current models, but relatively stronger at reasoning, a pure-reasoner model. The rest will b... |
2b407609-63dd-4f2d-bb7c-a4874ceb544c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Unifying Principles and Metrics for Safe and Assistive AI.
Unifying Principles and Metrics for Safe and Assistive AI
Siddharth Srivastava
School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering
Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281 USA
siddharths@asu.edu
Abstract
The prevalence and success of AI applica... |
8184effb-c651-40e0-80d8-a367fec1bb50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Genetic Fallacy
Today's post, The Genetic Fallacy was originally published on 11 July 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The genetic fallacy seems like a strange kind of fallacy. The problem is that the original justification for a belief does not always equal the sum of all the evidence that... |
33c5d103-cfac-44ba-b8e2-8ec66c327061 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Guide to pages on AI timeline predictions
This page is an informal outline of the other pages on this site about AI timeline predictions made by others. Headings link to higher level pages, intended to summarize the evidence from pages below them. This list was complete on 7 April 2017 ([here](http://aiimpacts.org/cat... |
85b177f0-ff40-4f89-96d9-1360f073a26a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What comes before rationality
Note: I am deleting this post because it contained personal information about a friend whose permission I did not expressly obtain. |
33e23c94-8f46-40c1-8d95-f5fc88d4fd5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where coulds go
Most people don't think they "could" cure Alzheimers by snapping their fingers, and so they don't feel terrible about failing to do this.
By contrast, people who fail to resist overeating, or who fail to stop playing Civilization at a reasonable hour, feel strongly that they "could have" resisted, and... |
bc9d81ba-5150-427d-b299-2a6ba9979705 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Particles may not have broken light speed limit
(Note: This is my first post in discussion, instead of just a comment. Feel free to suggest improvements.)
A few weeks ago in Less Wrong discussion, there was a discussion on whether or not we had found neutrinos traveling at superluminal velocities. That discussion can... |
751c352a-4d11-4a8e-a7be-c1049eca5825 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | E.T. Jaynes Probability Theory: The logic of Science I
This book (available as a free pdf here) is one of the foundational texts for Rationalists; Eliezer refers to Jaynes as The Level Above Mine. While we agree that Jaynes is very lucid and the book is wonderful, we also think the book's target audience are graduate ... |
40dfe867-e704-40c1-89a4-32593553c2ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Resource-Limited Reflective Oracles
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: n... |
77200bee-e3c1-4e97-89b3-df350c8aa55a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revisiting Conway's Law
This is a post about how running companies will change. It seems safe to say that markets are becoming more competitive, since AI tools are raising the floor for incumbents and new market entrants alike. But does this shift raise the floor symmetrically?
And what happens if this shift benefit... |
21aeb5b2-fccf-42ea-b1d9-7961d60c999e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty
This post is the first in a series of transcribed Discord conversations between Richard Ngo and Eliezer Yudkowsky, moderated by Nate Soares. We've also added Richard and Nate's running summaries of the conversation (and others' replies) from Google Docs.
Later conversation pa... |
cf55adf8-0e62-42d4-a4cf-1e21200b4c5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will 2024 be very hot? Should we be worried?
tl;dr: There are several trends which suggest that global temperatures over the next year will experience a short-term increase, relative to the long-term increase in temperatures caused by man-made global warming.
Credits: Most of the information comes from Berkley Earth... |
2d9a80b6-2b68-4e8b-a3f0-f4c66e77328c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Extreme risk neutrality isn't always wrong
Risk neutrality is the idea that a 50% chance of $2 is equally valuable as a 100% chance of $1. This is a highly unusual preference, but it sometimes makes sense:
> Exampleville is infested with an always-fatal parasite. All 1,024 residents have the worm.
>
> For each gold ... |
a2d6f791-0317-4706-9f81-e56761816ed3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence 20: The value-loading problem
This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see the announcement post. For the schedule of future topics, see MIRI's reading guide.
---------------------------------... |
ad2dc921-7141-4c12-a41d-1256b83d1c0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Find a study partner - March 2014 thread
This is the monthly thread to find a study partner.
For reasons mentioned in So8res article as well as for other reasons: studying with a partner can be very good.
So if you're looking for a study partner for an online course, reading a manual or else (whether it's in the... |
4fd3c89a-673e-4e44-957b-ce98a80243f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | External rationality vs. internal rationality
Internal rationality is using truth-preserving thought processes that output good hypotheses given good data. Examples include:
* Identifying inconsistencies in hypotheses.
* Having detailed models/inside views.
* Not doing motivated reasoning.
* Evaluating one's thou... |
c51750a6-22cc-42c0-92ab-e4863cafd6b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My "2.9 trauma limit"
Here is how I think about trauma.
It's packaged in a language intended to be accessible to people who are skeptical of trauma-narratives. It kinda skips over all the actually hard parts because I don't feel like dealing with that today, and many of them are sort of private and involve other peo... |
2699dac9-1aaa-4d83-b7d0-209d7d9406c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup Interest: Rhode Island
For over a year now I have been visiting this site, reading and learning about rationality, and meeting other rationalists sounds like a wonderfully positive experience. Sadly, there are no meetups in my area -- I looked at the RI skeptics society website, but their news page seemed focus... |
682656ef-b71a-4cef-a842-a6fb8645b4f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are rationalists worst at?
If we want to become stronger, not just individually but as a community, it's worth checking in on what things we're worst at so we can pay attention to those things and become better at them. So, what are the things that LessWrong-style rationalists are worst at on average as of now?
... |
50ead6e6-61fb-469e-b5f9-58099f1796ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Will 2023 be the last year you can write short stories and receive most of the intellectual credit for writing them?
I've been worldbuilding a unique setting in my head and on paper for maybe a year now, and for quite a bit longer than that I have wanted to start publishing fiction. I've never "found the time" to act ... |
894bb25d-1fcc-4898-99ce-f7e8a9bba920 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Big picture of phasic dopamine
(Update Jan. 2023: This article has important errors. I am leaving it as-is in case people want to see the historical trail of me gradually making progress. Most of the content here is revised and better-explained in my later post series Intro to Brain-Like AGI Safety, see especially Pos... |
092d539f-cd75-4728-a6cc-ccbe5e2b0e06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Duolingo
Yesterday I heard about an interesting new project called Duolingo. For some background, see this TEDx Talk by one of the creators, Luis von Ahn. It is a crowdsourcing approach to language translation, where the users learn a foreign language while translating. I've signed up but I haven't received ... |
774a5314-21d5-4838-b437-b09a0762d0e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coping with Undecidability
Mostly just reflections on things I've been learning about theory of computer science and trying to figure my philosophical stance towards them, in order to not be a trollable mathematician
In the last few months, my mind has constantly been trying to argue against something like the "naive... |
48e83f91-cf17-4fd1-9390-a48f84c12017 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Republishing an old essay in light of current news on Bing's AI: "Regarding Blake Lemoine's claim that LaMDA is 'sentient', he might be right (sorta), but perhaps not for the reasons he thinks"
I am republishing this essay because of recent discussions about erratic, ‘emotional’ and aggressive behavior by Bing’s AI, S... |
ca8f4cf2-bef8-4535-96bb-6dc58db66e62 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Agora: M. Brandão: Fairness and explainability in robot motion
this community
um shall i start
do you want to start the recording
yes i started recording so confident all
right
all right so i'm going to talk about uh
fairness and explainability in robot
motion
uh which are probably concepts that um
one wouldn't uh wo... |
65d240fd-124e-42a4-9adc-3dfaabd1f2b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meteuphoric games
Back to the original, titular purpose of this blog: getting excited about how things are metaphors for other things. Here are some things that are structurally similar in that they are games where you try to find structural similarities.
They also share the properties of being amusing to me and not ... |
c2f9f639-8a1e-48eb-b39b-f26eadef3bc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inaugral bump thread (12th July to 19th July)
Recently I came across the Akrasia Tactics Review article, then a 'bump' thread which spread the relevant content over multiple places, making tracking the content harder. It's apparent that some people believe some Lesswrong articles may be undervalued by the community (a... |
76ceb786-a395-4e1c-b1ae-ca7e957a0d4b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Rational heuristics for one-shot games.
RATIONAL HEURISTICS FOR ONE-SHOT
GAMES
Frederick CallawayyThomas L. Grithsz
Gustav Karreskog Rehbinderx
May 9, 2023
Abstract
We present a theory of human behavior in one-shot interactions based on
the assumption that people use heuristics that optimally trade o the expected
p... |
ac882e84-715e-48cb-80c0-a37974801464 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A utility-maximizing varient of AIXI
*Response to: [Universal agents and utility functions](/lw/feo/universal_agents_and_utility_functions/)*
*Related approaches: [Hibbard (2012)](http://versita.metapress.com/content/q5523w34gk767041/?genre=article&id=doi%3a10.2478%2fv10229-011-0013-5), [Hay (2005)](http://www.cs.a... |
aa06cc1a-f4c7-48aa-b359-47b99783118d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Model of Ontological Development
Introduction
In this post I present a model of human psychological development based on increases in the structural complexity of ontology. Or more simply, it's a model about how human minds grow in terms of how complex their models of the world are. It breaks down development into 8... |
c949529d-623e-497a-ad58-203b86feca5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Examples of practical implications of Judea Pearl's Causality work
I was recently talking with a friend about the practical usefulness of modern academic epistemology. Intuitively, I would have wanted to say that Judea Pearl's work causality has a lot of practical implications, however, I couldn't think of any example... |
3c3cb120-0d55-42c9-8240-1931017db82d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inductive biases stick around
This post is a follow-up to Understanding “Deep Double Descent”.
I was talking to Rohin at NeurIPS about my post on double descent, and he asked the very reasonable question of why exactly I think double descent is so important. I realized that I hadn't fully explained that in my previou... |
c9b897c3-ba84-4321-b683-94802314a9ec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Linguistic communication as (inverse) reward design
1 Introduction
---------------
Imagine taking up mushroom foraging as a hobby. How would you learn which fungi are delicious and which are deadly? Learning from direct experience Sutton and Barto ([2018](#bib.bib28 "Reinforcement Learning: an Introduction")) seems... |
809dd1c8-2f6f-469f-8b77-1e1aa8e61d7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Human Compatible
I.
Clarke’s First Law goes: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
Stuart Russell is only 58. But what he lacks in age, he makes up in distinction... |
cae0baa9-8999-4bef-ad08-2ee34f019809 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Missed opportunities for doing well by doing good
Related to: Fight zero-sum bias
According to the U.S. Department of State:
> In 2006, Americans donated 2.2 percent of their average disposable, or after-tax income.
The Department of State report commends the charitable giving practices of Americans as follows:
> ... |
15b4969f-4e9c-4311-b278-a56f6d3537af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Critique of Non-Obstruction
Epistemic status: either I’m confused, or non-obstruction isn’t what I want.
This is a response to Alex Turner’s Non-Obstruction: A simple Concept Motivating Corrigibility. Please read that first, and at least skim Reframing Impact where relevant.
It’s all good stuff.
I may very well be... |
e01d81ba-fbfc-43e1-bc56-50423cd272e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Generating the Funniest Joke with RL (according to GPT-4.1)
Language models are not particularly good at generating funny jokes. Asked for their funniest jokes, Claude 3.7 gives us:
> Why don't scientists trust atoms? Because they make up everything!
o3 gives us:
> Why don't scientists trust atoms anymore? Because ... |
43f4c236-fc7d-4983-be7d-4d36a6a1fb3b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Stopping dangerous AI: Ideal US behavior
*Disclaimer: this post doesn't have the answers. Moreover, it's an unfinished draft. Hopefully a future version will be valuable, but that will only occur if I revise/rewrite it. For now you're better off reading sources linked from*[*AI policy ideas: Reading list*](https://www... |
05b17761-861d-4258-9a33-efeba4b0786a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How worker co-ops can help restore social trust
The US is experiencing a great decline in trust. According to the US General Social Survey, people who agreed with the statement "most people can be trusted" went from 49% to 25% between 1984 and 2022.
Trust in institutions is also falling. Over that same period tr... |
4c45487a-3f19-4b37-839c-9031d5eef96f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning from Demonstration in the Wild
I Introduction
---------------
*Learning from demonstration* (LfD) is a machine learning technique that can learn complex behaviours from a dataset of expert trajectories, called demonstrations.
LfD is particularly useful in settings where hand-coding behaviour, or engineerin... |
4773bd64-9ab2-4996-ba23-c2f92df27a25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does MIRI Know it Has a Medium Probability of Success?
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) have argued that MIRI has a medium probability of success. What is this probability estimate based on and how is success defined?
I've read standard MIRI literature (like "Evidence and Import... |
f005430d-7acf-4b9b-9c63-9bcc69cd76bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | More precise regret bound for DRL
% operators that are separated from the operand by a space
% autosize deliminaters
% operators that require brackets
% operators that require parentheses
% Paper specific
We derive a regret bound for DRL reflecting dependence on:
* Number of hypoth... |
4374c12f-ad66-417f-95e6-e8b139d391d5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification
*Published 19 Oct 2020*
Progress in computer image classification performance took:
* Over 14 years to reach the level of an untrained human
* 3 years to pass from untrained human level to trained human level
* 5 years to continue fr... |
3664643e-3b49-4c56-b208-abbf0d1eba8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment vs capabilities
In Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace, Master Jedi Qui-Gon Jinn discovers Anakin. Anakin is just a young child slave on the forgettable planet of Tatooine. However, Qui-Gon feels something noteworthy about the boy.
He feels... the Force. To confirm this feeling, he takes a sample of b... |
f0c937a1-165c-441a-8d03-4f255abdd33f | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3881
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . Normal people start with simple ideas and complexify them; it seems that I start with complex ideas and then simplify them. Partially inspired by a conversation with Tom Voice, here is the simpler version of the AIs in virtual worlds idea. The idea is simpl... |
35ab5e4f-efa1-4ff5-9485-62360a4b363a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Update 2019-01-03 – New All-Posts Page, Author hover-previews and new post-item
Daily page replaced with new "All-posts" page
The old /daily page (accessible via clicking "Daily" on the frontpage, or clicking on "All Posts" in the hamburger menu in the top-left) has been replaced with a new /allPosts page that is s... |
fbb82b6c-96bf-4adb-9525-797c1dda500a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some phrases in The Map that... Confuse me- help please, to make my review of it better!
I recently read
A Map that Reflect the Territory: Essays by the Less Wrong Community
I will be posting a review of it on the lesswrong site soon.
But I want to improve it first and need your help!
There were some words or phr... |
1c1a6054-e9de-4d91-8d3a-844c11616f5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disagreement with Paul: alignment induction
I had a discussion with Paul Christiano, about his Iterated Amplification and Distillation scheme. We had a disagreement, a disagreement that I believe points to something interesting, so I'm posting this here.
It's a disagreement about the value of the concept of "preservi... |
7dd06dc8-00bf-4219-833c-66f5054a6766 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can crimes be discussed literally?
Suppose I were to say that the American legal system is a criminal organization. The usual response would be that this is a crazy accusation.
Now, suppose I were to point out that it is standard practice for American lawyers to advise their clients to lie under oath in certain circu... |
3ea435a2-f009-46f6-af52-3a8021a66bf2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attention Output SAEs Improve Circuit Analysis
This is the final post of our Alignment Forum sequence produced as part of the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2023-24 Cohort.
Executive Summary
* In a previous post we trained Attention Output Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) on every layer of GPT-2 Small.
... |
1745a34e-8604-4460-a839-eaf34ab01ebf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Circumventing interpretability: How to defeat mind-readers
*(Post now available as a pdf:* [*https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.11415*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.11415) *)*
| |
| --- |
| TL;DR: Unaligned AI will have a convergent instrumental incentive to make its thoughts difficult for us to interpret. In this article,... |
3fdce5cd-ccde-4599-b358-25c485c5447e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Frankfurt Meetup Revival
Discussion article for the meetup : Frankfurt Meetup Revival
WHEN: 29 June 2015 06:30:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Frankfurt Praunheim, exact address available
Hi!
I'm posting on behalf of Janko (see below)
Contact: Tel:0176 3066 164 (Janko)
less-wrong-frankfurt@googlegroups.com
The meetu... |
fb63c23c-bc27-4eac-b6fc-7bc9179f092a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimates of COVID risk rankings for different activities when together with people in the same household?
My questions in this thread may be relevant to people with roommates, or people who are visiting a small number of friends or family in person, but who want to still minimize risk.
I've seen and liked: http://ww... |
27cd6e04-d0e0-4d1d-be8c-3742a6a912e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Day Zero Antivirals for Future Pandemics
By Brian Wang
Ebola tore through Western Africa in 2014, killing an estimated 11,325 people in two years. After the outbreak ended, it took another three years for the first Ebola vaccine by Merck to be approved. When COVID-19 emerged in 2019, by contrast, mRNA vaccines develo... |
5e3b7b2d-2312-406c-b280-678118a5fc88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Nonsense
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Nonsense
WHEN: 19 February 2017 03:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard to discuss the concept and examples of nonsense, per the suggestion of on... |
6b12c19c-2bf7-44e1-b941-6b7eb1cb4f27 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Principles of Explanatory Debugging to Personalize Interactive Machine Learning
Principles of Explanatory Debugging
to Personalize Interactive Machine Learning
Todd Kulesza1Margaret Burnett1Weng-Keen Wong1Simone Stumpf2
1Oregon State University
School of EECS
Corvallis, Oregon2City University London
Centre for HCI Des... |
a8259fdd-d355-48ae-997d-dc84a5c38e42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Antonio Meetup Discussion (Topic: Pre-Hindsight)
Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup Discussion (Topic: Pre-Hindsight)
WHEN: 07 February 2016 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 12651 Vance Jackson Rd #118, San Antonio, TX 78230
Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion at Yumi Berry. All are ... |
1def19c0-8113-4b94-a6cb-66d447cb666e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Fun and Games Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Fun and Games Meetup
WHEN: 09 March 2014 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington DC
We'll be meeting to hang out and play games.
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Fun and Games Mee... |
1d8bb4bc-8ebe-40c0-a771-59d6f6cc417e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | to wasm and back again: the essence of portable programs
to wasm and back again: the essence of portable programs
--------------------------------------------------------
what is the *essence* of a portable program, a program expressed in a format such that it can then be interpreted or, ideally, compiled to run eff... |
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