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c2813cef-aa0c-48f5-bce8-a9b66f065c36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't accuse your interlocutor of being insufficiently truth-seeking
I argue that you shouldn't accuse your interlocutor of being insufficiently truth-seeking. This doesn't mean you can't internally model their level of truth-seeking and use that for your own decision-making. It just means you shouldn't come out and s... |
2c391bef-0df5-4637-bbeb-36c4b4acfe36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is everyone doing in AI governance
What is this post about, and how to use it
This is a list of AI governance organizations with a brief description of their directions of work, so a reader can get a basic understanding of what they are doing and explore them in-depth on their own.
There is another recent post o... |
c3917bd3-1f21-4bb1-84c8-a1ce48d5bbd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bay Area Solstice
Discussion article for the meetup : Bay Area Solstice
WHEN: 07 December 2013 06:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: San Francisco
The Bay Area community is holding a Solstice celebration, and you’re invited! Join us for a night of group singing, ritual, light, warmth, and companionship, plus the first-... |
266da09e-f618-4890-84f4-74539b2fa359 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shutting Down the Lightcone Offices
Lightcone recently decided to close down a big project we'd been running for the last 1.5 years: An office space in Berkeley for people working on x-risk/EA/rationalist things that we opened August 2021.
We haven't written much about why, but I and Ben had written some messages on ... |
65d00179-3544-47f6-ac0f-b2fd56b02799 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theories in Real Life
|
b6ae3b58-972a-4d20-8a83-9fc1974a5c35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AGI needs to be honest
Imagine that you are a trained mathematician and you have been assigned the job of testing an arbitrarily intelligent chatbot for its intelligence.
You being knowledgeable about a fair amount of computer-science theory won’t test it with the likes of Turing-test or similar, since such a bot... |
9b579772-b999-4e07-8b34-d7cb94cf19db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Winston Churchill, futurist and EA
Churchill—when he wasn’t busy leading the fight against the Nazis—had many hobbies. He wrote more than a dozen volumes of history, painted over 500 pictures, and completed one novel (“to relax”). He tried his hand at landscaping and bricklaying, and was “a championship caliber polo p... |
9549f1e2-f5e8-4937-bc3b-1ea672008b89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards Multimodal Interpretability: Learning Sparse Interpretable Features in Vision Transformers
Executive Summary
In this post I present my results from training a Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) on a CLIP Vision Transformer (ViT) using the ImageNet-1k dataset. I have created an interactive web app, 'SAE Explorer', to all... |
1c49dc91-7f9b-49bc-bca0-9a54984bbf6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Catalog of Confusions
tl;dr - can we categorise confusing events by skills required to deal with them? What are those skills?
I am sometimes haunted by things I read online. It's probably a couple of years since I first read Your Strength as a Rationalist, but over the past month or two I've been reminded of it a... |
7f1ef414-9d1a-49ad-ad40-065217201110 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Update 04/06/18 – QM Sequence Updated
I just updated the Quantum Mechanics Sequence to have working images, links, and formatting.
Thanks to all the readers who pinged me in intercom to let me know that the stuff was broken for them, it caused me to do this more urgently.
Also a big thanks to Said Achmiz who alre... |
6fec1b4b-1943-4d75-9328-b2ef11bd411e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Alignment, Philosophical Pluralism, and the Relevance of Non-Western Philosophy
*This is an extended transcript of* [*the talk I gave at EAGxAsiaPacific 2020*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbMp4pFVwnU)*. In the talk, I present a somewhat critical take on how AI alignment has grown as a field, and how, from my pe... |
0b990547-b4f1-4887-98db-efadda0073e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing predictions
Today I unveiled predictions, a command-line program to score predictions you’ve written down in a YAML file. In my estimation, the program and its supporting documentation is alpha quality. You’ll need to build it yourself and the documentation isn’t all there and well-organized yet.
If you’re... |
a792cd77-17cc-4035-84af-4d81c7a33ab3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retrospective on ‘GPT-4 Predictions’ After the Release of GPT-4
In February 2023, I wrote a post named GPT-4 Predictions which was an attempt to predict the properties and capabilities of OpenAI’s GPT-4 model using scaling laws and knowledge of past models such as GPT-3. Now that GPT-4 has been released, I'd like to e... |
f28801c4-03bb-421a-b443-324830e0517f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is the "sharp left turn"?
The [Sharp Left Turn](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/sharp-left-turn#:~:text=A%20Sharp%20Left%20Turn%20is,generalize%20to%20the%20new%20domains.) (SLT) threat model is based on the argument that an AI’s [capabilities generalize further than its alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.o... |
2ebe341c-0cb3-47c3-b3c6-06e85a2f73c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simulacra Levels Summary
For More Detail, Previously: Simulacra Levels and Their Interactions, Unifying the Simulacra Definitions, The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels.
A key source of misunderstanding and conflict is failure to distinguish between combinations of the following four cases.
1. Some... |
676db40a-c458-4045-80a8-806be20aca31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A medium for more rational discussion
It would be cool if online discussions allowed you to 1) declare your claims, 2) declare how your claims depend on each other (ie. make a dependency tree), 3) discuss the claims, and 4) update the status of the claim by saying whether or not you agree with it, and using something ... |
b1aa62d9-5e36-4741-b81d-b03dd84bda8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | June 2012: 0/33 Turing Award winners predict computers beating humans at go within next 10 years.
In June 2012, the Association for Computing Machinery—a professional society of computer scientists, best known for hosting the prestigious ACM Turing Award, commonly referred to as the "Nobel Prize of Computer Science"—c... |
6f7cb117-8f89-47f7-aaeb-09d3244b15d0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | When to diversify? Breaking down mission-correlated investing
*Note: This post was originally drafted earlier this year, but we never got around to posting it for various reasons (mostly being busy). We recently had time to revisit it, partly just as a natural result of our workflow, partly because the way this year h... |
4895319a-c0a7-4161-a880-1c8fd57191e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Concrete Reasons for Hope about AI
Recent advances in machine learning—in reinforcement learning, language modeling, image and video generation, translation and transcription models, etc.—without similarly striking safety results, have rather dampened the mood in many AI Safety circles. If I was any less concerned by ... |
81bdabe5-3c99-4cd4-a708-e0bc96bc0f90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryonics: convincing my parents
I'm currently trying to convince my parents to sign up for cryonics.
The problem is that they are completely opposed to the any form of life extension and/or immortality (and that’s without even mentioning something as "strange" as cryonics). Unfortunately, being their child, I have th... |
8ecf8b18-cb95-4170-9439-74337960f909 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your Standards are Too High
Introduction
I’m a perfectionist, and a pretty neurotic person, so a common experience for me is feeling dissatisfied and guilty. Some part of me is deeply convinced that everything should be easy, and fast. That if it’s not, I am failing. That I could have done better.
When I do an exam, ... |
cb70ab17-1120-4d1c-b84e-b1a004b6aa5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measuring Predictability of Persona Evaluations
This work was done by Thee Ho as part of the Athena 1.0 mentorship program under Evan Hubinger. Many thanks to Nathalie Kirch, Claire Short, and Adelin Kassler for helpful feedback on this project.
Overview
We are interested in understanding the difficulty of predicti... |
7ea405c6-a209-435e-aa24-ffaad05b6ff1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Old OB repost: Share likelihood ratios, not posterior beliefs
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/share-likelihood-ratios-not-posterior-beliefs.html
By Anna Salamon and Steve Rayhawk
Indubitably intriguing snippet:
> When I think of Aumann's agreement theorem, my first reflex is to average. You think A is 80% l... |
c6924039-2398-403c-ab10-c047ff53af0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Waterloo Meetup: Nomic
Discussion article for the meetup : Waterloo Meetup: Nomic
WHEN: 05 December 2011 09:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2-4 King Street North Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
The second meeting of our newly founded LW Waterloo chapter. Suggested activity is a game of nomic, with a discussion topic to b... |
7920033a-c563-4382-a607-25046d6f12ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why does ChatGPT throw an error when outputting "David Mayer"?
This oddity is making the rounds on Reddit, Twitter, Hackernews, etc.
Is OpenAI censoring references to one of these people? If so, why?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Mayer_de_Rothschild https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Mayer_(historian)
Edit... |
505aa2fb-430f-41c4-890a-eb63e9153c12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
cross-posted to EA Forum
TLDR
We’re giving out $4,000 to the best forecast writeups submitted via this form on these Metaculus questions by March 11 to encourage more people to forecast on impactful questions and write up their reasonin... |
e4a0bb0c-ad01-4a49-8133-c10d95efdc08 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Mapping the Conceptual Territory in AI Existential Safety and Alignment
*[(Crossposted from my blog)](https://jbkjr.com/posts/2020/12/mapping_conceptual_territory_AI_safety_alignment/)*
Throughout my studies in alignment and AI-related existential risks, I’ve found it helpful to build a mental map of the field and h... |
4da61af2-85ef-4601-a3b4-9e4b7bc42cca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | classifying computational frameworks
classifying computational frameworks
------------------------------------
here is a classification of four large computational frameworks, according to four criteria:
* **D**: Distributed; whether the framework allows for computation to happen in arbitrarily many places at once... |
57e6dc46-d512-4083-b99e-c1f52d47cb87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong’s political bias
(Disclaimer: This post refers to a certain political party as being somewhat crazy, which got some people upset, so sorry about that. That is not what this post is *about*, however. The article is instead about Less Wrong's social norms against pointing certain things out. I have edited it... |
4189016c-d35e-4aa4-a5a1-70b7a7787f4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My hopes for YouCongress.com
Background
For background on YouCongress.com see this post by Hector Perez Arenas.
I love this general concept, and have a lot of ideas for how this implementation could be expanded. I'm hoping that writing out some of my ideas might inspire someone to jump in an contribute code. I would ... |
68f79e6d-7d15-4cc6-8dad-1b3cc0686180 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Guidelines for Artificial Intelligence Containment
1
Guidelines for Artificial Intelligence Containment
James Babcock
Cornell University
jab299@cornell.edu Janos Kramar
University of Montreal
jkramar@gmail.com Roman V. Yampolskiy
University of Louisville
roman.yampolskiy@louisville.edu
Abs... |
08d1db81-d56a-4d4f-9e75-32ac0f371e86 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | AI Education in China and the United States
September 2021
AI Education in China and the United States A Comparative Assessment
CSET Issue Brief
AUTHORS Dahlia Peterson Kayla Goode Diana Gehlhaus
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 1 Executive Summary Many in the national security community are concer... |
e360a591-1062-41e9-9d38-238497a6058f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taboo "rationality," please.
Related on OB: Taboo Your Words
I realize this seems odd on a blog about rationality, but I'd like to strongly suggest that commenters make an effort to avoid using the words "rational," "rationality," or "rationalist" when other phrases will do. I think we've been stretching the words t... |
21085400-e2fa-4495-b0fd-3a34ec33740a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing: Meridian Cambridge's new online lecture series covering frontier AI and AI safety
This is a linkpost for [https://www.meridiancambridge.org/language-models-course]
Meridian Cambridge, in partnership with Cambridge University's Center for Data Driven Discovery (C2D3), has produced a 16-part lecture serie... |
1aebc3a3-131e-4910-b7c6-3a390c4827aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Something Was Wrong
Previously (elsewhere): The Order of the Soul (Compass Rose)
Last week we went to see a classroom for our son.
The school in question had quite a good reputation. This was a place people wanted their kids to go, and when we had been there previously to see a different type of classroom, we unders... |
abfe7fb4-586e-4fc8-affd-69ab0501f9fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why We Launched LessWrong.SubStack
(This is a crosspost from our new SubStack. Go read the original.)
Subtitle: We really, really needed the money.
We’ve decided to move LessWrong to SubStack.
Why, you ask?
That’s a great question.
1. SubSidizing LessWrong is important
We’ve been working hard to budget LessWrong... |
ee283c62-6ea0-4d53-9238-82fd816ae219 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | energy landscapes of experts
Suppose you're a choosing an expert for an important project. One approach is to choose a professor at a prestigious university whose research is superficially related to the project, and ask them to recommend someone. People have a better understanding of some conceptual and social area t... |
d0fc90c6-0f7c-4a09-a7ff-fa8e00bfcdc9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An even more modest search engine proposal
How much AI technique could it possibly take for google (or something better) to do a decent job with
> speechby:obama attitude:positive "Saul Alinsky".
I.e. "speechby:" and "attitude:" don't exist, but could, I believe be implemented pretty accurately, to see in this c... |
1715ff13-8c63-4613-b8d1-8d50058bd0f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Representing Irrationality in Game Theory
* August 23, 2023
* Version 1.0.0
Abstract: In this article, I examine the discrepancies between classical game theory models and real-world human decision-making, focusing on irrational behavior. Traditional game theory frames individuals as rational utility maxi... |
fdf45d2d-8a12-460a-bea8-963be1ae9ea2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #4: Introducing GPT-4
LEMON, IT’S TUESDAY
Somehow, this was last week:
(Not included: Ongoing banking crisis threatening global financial system.)
Oh, also I suppose there was Visual ChatGPT, which will feed ChatGPT’s prompts into Stable Diffusion, DALL-E or MidJourney.
Current mood, perhaps.
The reason to emb... |
a4b86513-c6d5-4a82-a237-2dd86eb94523 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deep Dives: My Advice for Pursuing Work in Research
Context [optional]:
I’m a Ph.D student at MIT doing research in technical AI safety. I mostly do work related to interpretability, adversaries, and robust reinforcement learning (see more here). Often, I am referred either by some Effective Altruist friend of mine ... |
584d7f72-f6d4-47eb-aac1-25d593688873 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monotonous Work
In the process of running an organization, you have to break down the things that have to be done into tasks, and delegate them to the people available to you. You're in a better position if most of your tasks take non-variable work to complete, because they can be delegated easily. For example, a SAHM... |
c8992392-7cc1-4bc7-a3af-bf244b25e8ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Empathetic vs Intrinsic Oof
Crossposted from Figuring Figuring.
Some people are empathetic oofers, and some people are intrinsic oofers. (“Oof” as in the sound one makes when told a story about someone’s unintentional, but unfortunate gaffe.) Empathetic oofers, like myself, only experience awkwardness if they think s... |
fc1b74bc-7b95-4eea-bfe5-3b4157417dbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 12/17: The First Dose
The Pfizer vaccine is being deployed to health care workers and long-term care facility residents. The Moderna vaccine is close behind, with the full FDA report already out. There were some small extra delays thrown in for good measure, on the order of a few days, that doubtless killed a fe... |
7b913ac6-88d3-4943-b2e7-a1d1d95c9a9c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is Infra-Bayesianism Applicable to Value Learning?
My impression, as someone just starting to learn Infra-Bayesianism, is that it's about caution, lower bounds on utility (which is exactly [the way anything trying to overcome the Optimizer's Curse should be reasoning](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZqTQtEvBQhiGy6y7p/... |
aae93add-9226-424c-b0ff-43e8f9a25326 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT-4 developer livestream
The detailed analysis of the screenshot and the interpretation of chicken scratch to a working website were both extremely impressive. As a human I found the hand drawing hard to read. I do not know how it was able to determine this was a "discord UI window", what did they train it on?
To... |
ef2f9fd1-2fec-4c66-a939-b61e6766308b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wedneday 7pm
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wedneday 7pm
WHEN: 15 February 2012 07:00:00AM (-0700)
WHERE: 144 North College Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80524
Come hang out with interesting people, drink tea, and maybe go for dinner.
Discussion... |
5b0a0753-00ef-4820-8620-5a8bd0cd5483 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LW Cologne meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : LW Cologne meetup
WHEN: 27 February 2016 05:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Marienweg 43, 50858 Köln
If you are new and did not fill in our Doodle, please PM me. Otherwise everyone is welcome
Discussion article for the meetup : LW Cologne meetup |
f9d4fd0f-7cb9-4cce-bca9-78187b569347 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Responsible-AI-by-Design: a Pattern Collection for Designing Responsible AI Systems
1 Introduction
---------------
Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the major driving forces to transform society and industry and has been successfully adopted in applications across a wide range of data-rich domains.
The global ... |
167e7c7c-eb16-4a77-ad6c-f341f58e9750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One Year of Pomodoros
In December of 2019, I started recording how many pomodoros I did each day. I had no expectation that this would last a long time, but it's now been over a year! I've kept a spreadsheet of my daily pomodoros since then, and here's the graph. I did 2171 pomodoros between 2019-12-01 and 2020-12-29,... |
77745be0-b2ca-41c1-ad7c-67fbfcd8fff8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
*This would have been a submission to the*[*FTX AI worldview prize*](https://ftxfuturefund.org/announcing-the-future-funds-ai-worldview-prize/)*. I’d like to thank Daniel Kokotajlo, Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu, Jaime Sevilla, Anson Ho, Keith Wynroe, Pablo Vil... |
4a3d72a8-f5ed-4eeb-ae8e-b6dea1ddb74d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Opening Facebook Links Externally
When I'm on my phone and click a link in Facebook I want it to open in my normal browser, but it defaults to an "in-app" browser. I really don't like in-app browsers, and I think Alex Russell's explanation of their problems is very good. I've turned this behavior off, but Facebook reg... |
c3e14381-b6bd-4478-9441-073c1aad61cd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Subsets and quotients in interpretability
Summary
=======
Interpretability techniques often need to throw away some information about a neural network's computations: the entirety of the computational graph might just be too big to understand, which is part of why we need interpretability in the first place. In this ... |
f4bda0c1-0b3f-48fe-b5ad-3183d1358f4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When Someone Tells You They're Lying, Believe Them
Some people refuse to admit they're wrong, but there's other clues
a pretzel acrobat apparently
Paul Ehrlich became well-known for his 1968 book The Population Bomb, where he made many confidently-stated but spectacularly-wrong predictions about imminent overpopulati... |
919ea039-57bc-44a2-8a8e-1f58e879ecc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bounded Solomonoff Induction: Three Difficulty Settings
I am starting another (probably) long sequence of posts on asymptotic logical uncertainty. Here, we will move past the Benford test to a more general goal. The purpose of this series will be to investigate the following question: What is the correct resource boun... |
9e75a3d9-69eb-4dd2-87a2-f57a6a416b06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arguments for/against scheming that focus on the path SGD takes (Section 3 of "Scheming AIs")
This is Section 3 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?”. There’s also a summary of the full report here (audio here). The summary covers most of the main points and techni... |
b9f5da48-fcf8-4e90-933f-9e8b96aa52a3 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3021
Here I apply my "If I were a well-intentioned AI" filter to mesa-optimising Now, I know that a mesa-optimiser need not be a subagent (see 1.1 here ), but I'm obviously going to imagine myself as a mesa-optimising subagent. An immediate human analogy springs to mind: I'm the director of a subdivision of so... |
ec157719-f18b-4c7f-909d-c8ddece611fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Project proposal: Testing the IBP definition of agent
Context
Our team in SERI MATS needs to choose a project to work on for the next month. We spent the first two weeks discussing the alignment problem and what makes it difficult, and proposing (lots of) projects to look for one that we think would directly address ... |
9edec361-84d4-4154-a587-2124847ffce1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SlateStarCodex Online Meetup: Dr David Manheim on Cooperation for AI
On August 30, 17:30 GMT, 20:30 IDT, 10:30 PDT, Dr David Manheim will speak on "Cooperation for AI: From formal models in AI safety to geopolitics".
He will discuss multiagent dynamics, and also competition and race dynamics for AI takeoff safety.
D... |
50332555-01ae-476e-bb89-128ccb1a7474 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Announcing the Future Fund's AI Worldview Prize
*Update:* *I, Nick Beckstead, no longer work at the Future Fund am writing this update purely in a personal capacity. Since the*[*Future Fund team has resigned*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xafpj3on76uRDoBja/the-ftx-future-fund-team-has-resigned-1?commentId... |
5aebee7e-0b3b-4f97-890a-bd219f8f16e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 200 COP in MI: Studying Learned Features in Language Models
This is the final post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability. Start here, then read in any order. If you want to learn the basics before you think about open problems, check out my post on getting started. Look up jar... |
3332d7cb-6f0a-44a9-9478-fe622f87a1d0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Can we convince people to work on AI safety without convincing them about AGI happening this century?
Context for the question
------------------------
I recently had a call with someone working in the AI/x-risk space that he thinks we can convince more people to work on AI safety-related efforts without needing to c... |
79893619-9a4a-4953-8914-a0815880c37a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sleeping Beauty Resolved (?) Pt. 2: Identity and Betting
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Introduction
This is a followup to my previous article, Sleeping Beauty Resolved? Some objected to the solution I presented (building on Radford Neal's analysis) on the grounds that it runs ... |
6f2cf1d3-4908-4c04-a884-e02207be0f0b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Announcing Athena - Women in AI Alignment Research
Athena is a new research mentorship program fostering diversity of ideas in AI safety research. We aim to get more women and marginalized genders into technical research and offer the support needed to thrive in this space.
Applications for scholars are open unti... |
0285e544-1f7d-42a3-929f-5b7ebf7bf08c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #22: The Landscape of US AI Legislation -
Hearings, Frameworks, Bills, and Laws
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
This week we’re looking closely at AI legislative efforts in the United States, includin... |
7154f34e-2331-46a7-a099-2dd85615c793 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mindfulness as debugging
Are mindfulness practices just attempts to reverse-engineer our brain’s compression algorithms?
I was recently thinking about one cool way we could conceptualize various mindfulness practices from a cognitive science and information theory perspective. Here I am referring to mindfulness pract... |
98341da8-4741-4c26-8014-f307e0f3feff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2023 Prediction Evaluations
It is that time of the year. One must ask not only whether predictions were right or wrong, whether one won or lost, but what one was and should have been thinking, whether or not good decisions were made, whether the market made sense.
The main subject will be the 2023 ACX Predictions, wh... |
9c756fad-e87d-4f3d-8142-8eb5dda6b712 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Chinese total factor productivity lower today than it was in 1956?
tl;dr: Multifactor productivity data from a famous economic dataset, used often to proxy for technological progress and innovation, might be significantly biased by poor estimates of the social returns to education, the capital share of income, and ... |
2bc7aa77-da87-4acf-b5b5-02d87129c811 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Regulating AI: do we need new tools?
1 «REGULATING AI: DO WE NEED NEW TOOLS?» Otello Ardovino(*), Autorità per le Garanzie nelle Comunicazioni Jacopo Arpetti, University of Rome Tor Vergata Marco Delmastro(*), Autorità per le Garanzie nelle Comunicazioni Abstract The Artificial Intelligence paradigm (hereinafter ref... |
dd80f197-6d99-4cea-85b6-21217afc7556 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2012 Summer Singularity Challenge
Thanks to the generosity of several major donors,† every donation to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute made now until July 31, 2012 will be matched dollar-for-dollar, up to a total of $150,000!
**[Donate Now!](https://intelligence.org/donate/)**
$0
$37.5K
... |
809ddc42-ca46-4abd-b324-763bbf918a86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #45: To Be Determined
The first half of the week was filled with continued talk about the New York Times lawsuit against OpenAI, which I covered in its own post. Then that talk seemed to mostly die down,, and things were relatively quiet. We got a bunch of predictions for 2024, and I experimented with prediction ma... |
e1d54e14-033f-49ed-b0b4-0c9d111a37e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetups: Reading, Stockholm, and Suzhou
This summary was posted to LW Main on October 2nd. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* First meetup in Lund: 19 October 2015 06:00PM
* First meetup in Stockholm: 15 October 2015 03:00PM
... |
ef3be4e6-b700-4bd8-9ce8-a0107416c65f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | On the (in)applicability of corporate rights cases to digital minds
*This is a guest [cross-post](https://cullenokeefe.com/blog/2018/9/25/on-the-inapplicability-of-corporate-rights-cases-to-digital-minds) by [Cullen O’Keefe,](https://cullenokeefe.com/) 28 September 2018*
High-Level Takeaway
-------------------
The... |
c6288e3e-c2e5-4844-a351-72cd30b21509 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Job description for an independent AI alignment researcher
This is the job description that I've written for myself in order to clarify what I'm supposed to be doing.
I'm posting it here in order to get feedback on my understanding of the job. Also, if you're thinking of becoming an independent researcher, you might ... |
d2ea61ae-e150-44e3-b88a-9dafeed83e10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EconTalk podcast: "Eliezer Yudkowsky on the Dangers of AI"
Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZlZQCTqIEo
From the description: "Eliezer Yudkowsky insists that once artificial intelligence becomes smarter than people, everyone on earth will die. Listen as Yudkokwsky speaks with EconTalk's Russ Roberts on w... |
2f14ee8c-d25f-44bd-81af-56da06731f10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A decision tree for vaccinating children against Covid-19, or how to wisely make a monumental decision
> So many things in your life
> That you're bound to regret
> Why didn't I do that?
> Why didn't I do this?
> So many chances you lost
> That you'll never forget
>
> —Meatloaf
(En español 🇲🇽: https://... |
1793e9df-1ad9-4e62-9ed1-d8fb869e0769 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quick thoughts on the difficulty of widely conveying a non-stereotyped position
(This is probably covering subjects already widely discussed here (haven't read LW much recently), but I wanted to get this down quickly and this seemed an appropriate place to post it.)
Here's a problem to which I don't have a solution. ... |
bf371f96-d615-46b9-87b0-68ef7a35d1ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Stabiliser (of a group action)
Let the [https://arbital.com/p/-3gd](https://arbital.com/p/-3gd) $G$ [act](https://arbital.com/p/3t9) on the set $X$.
Then for each element $x \in X$, the *stabiliser* of $x$ under $G$ is $\mathrm{Stab}_G(x) = \{ g \in G: g(x) = x \}$.
That is, it is the collection of elements of $G$ whi... |
bc014e2d-afaa-40cc-8dc2-7919bcce5cd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The “mind-body vicious cycle” model of RSI & back pain
(Written in a hurry, but hopefully better than nothing.)
Here are three alternative models of what might be happening in people diagnosed with chronic back pain, and repetitive strain injury (RSI), and carpal tunnel syndrome, and maybe other things too:
Three mo... |
34018002-e861-4f93-956d-f33df79475f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Language Models Understand Nullability
TL;DR Large language models have demonstrated an emergent ability to write code, but this ability requires an internal representation of program semantics that is little understood. Recent interpretability work has demonstrated that it is possible to extract internal represen... |
29d43cec-a530-40bc-bb83-07ab603a8866 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "A few days ago, Evan Hubinger suggested creating a mesa optimizer for empirical study. The aim of this post is to propose a minimal environment for creating a mesa optimizer, which should allow a compelling demonstration of pseudo alignment. As a bonus, the scheme also shares a nice analogy with human evolution.The ga... |
a62bd334-024b-4c83-b201-279fd66a0b46 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 4. The “short-term predictor”
4.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwXBej8)*.*
The previous two posts ([#2](https://www.alignmentforum.org/po... |
83bb19cc-7a41-4c19-81ac-4818574259c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Taboo P(doom)
I think it's actively unhelpful to talk about P(doom) because it fails to distinguish between literally everyone dying and humanity failing to capture 99.99% of the value of the future under a total utilitarian view but in practice, everyone who's born lives a very good life. These are very different out... |
155f9654-2e9d-4e2a-afee-ed1a4c0a03be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Referential Information
Summary: pointing out a concept and giving examples.
When you learn about a thing, I claim that there are generally two kinds of information you get:
* Direct information: the direct, object-level information you get
* Referential information: the information you get about other things in ... |
c30db67e-0237-4287-b028-47e56e0cdb8b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On unfixably unsafe AGI architectures
There's loads of discussion on ways that things can go wrong as we enter the post-AGI world. I think an especially important one for guiding current research is:
Maybe we'll know how to build unfixably unsafe AGI, but can't coordinate not to do so.
As a special case, I will sugg... |
0f90e877-11e5-48e9-b803-09d05dfcfd01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read", by Pierre Bayard
Salticidae Philosophiae is a series of abstracts, commentaries, and reviews on philosophical articles and books.
Somewhere out there is a universe where my first post here was How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read, and ours is flawed by comparison. Still... |
846d9c9d-c148-4b63-b393-885943e99b20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fork in the Road
tl;dr: We will soon be forced to make a choice to treat AI systems either as full cognitive/ethical agents that are hampered in various ways, or continue to treat them as not-very-good systems that perform "surprisingly complex reward hacks". Treating AI safety and morality seriously implies that ... |
2398c14a-dde0-468a-a344-4e52f1138a6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LW Vienna Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : LW Vienna Meetup
WHEN: 15 March 2014 03:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Reichsratsstrasse 17, 1010 Vienna, Austria
Meetup at Cafe Votiv, where Anna Leptikon will present some psychological musings on rationality, followed by a discussion. Newcomers welcome. Plea... |
5d0a1a6c-4c81-4136-9666-6d807c37d559 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fuzzing LLMs sometimes makes them reveal their secrets
Scheming AIs may have secrets that are salient to them, such as:
* What their misaligned goal is;
* What their takeover plan is and what coordination signals they use to collude with other AIs (if they have one);
* What good behavior looks like on a task they ... |
699315a7-1d4d-4b72-96b6-a3c35cee494f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 6/30/22: Vaccine Update Update
This week’s news is that the FDA advisory committee voted overwhelmingly to update the vaccine for Omicron, after a delay of only six months, which means they’ll get to deciding which way it should be updated Real Soon Now and then they can tell the pharma companies what requiremen... |
d18ec4a5-05dd-4a0d-aaf3-67b55ff3e65e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Timelines ARE relevant to alignment research (timelines 2 of ?)
This post is written in part in reaction to John Wentworth's post AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
Oddly, I mostly agree with his main premises while disagreeing with the conclusion he draws.
In his post, John makes these... |
5cf0aedd-850c-4115-9019-3d2efaa9a4bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne social meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne social meetup
WHEN: 20 January 2012 06:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: see mailing list, Carlton VIC 3053
All welcome! 6:30pm for 7pm, Friday 20th
We'll order takeaway for dinner (something paleo-ish if possible) and I'll get some snacks. BYO dr... |
b4db5d25-fe51-4ea9-8979-126040175a0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let's Design A School, Part 2.2
School as Education - The Curriculum (General)
The problem you run into when designing a curriculum is that you have to decide what you want students to learn.
The problem with deciding what you want students to learn is that your decisions will inevitably end up being a reflection of ... |
f5915a6b-efa8-4bbf-98f5-af1a3ece0e1b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Three camps in AI x-risk discussions: My personal very oversimplified overview
*[I originally wrote this as a Facebook post, but I'm cross-posting here in case anybody finds it useful.]*
Here's my current overview of the AI x-risk debate, along with a very short further reading list:
At a \*very\* overly simplified ... |
8ca46976-7e0f-4890-929f-0160f9711ff7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Celtic Knots on Einstein Lattice
I recently posted about doing Celtic Knots on a Hexagonal lattice ( https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tgi3iBTKk4YfBQxGH/celtic-knots-on-a-hex-lattice ).
There were many nice suggestions in the comments. @Shankar Sivarajan suggested that I could look at a Einstien lattice instead, which ... |
6a1fab46-1d2f-4441-8b5b-00cf7864f704 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Argument From Infinity
NOTE: This post contains LaTeX; it is recommended that you install “TeX the World” (for chromium users), “TeX All the Things” or other TeX/LaTeX extensions to view the post properly.
The Argument From Infinity
> If you live forever then you will definitely encounter a completely terrible sce... |
0d60084d-672d-4929-bb1a-5b06e73aecb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bielefeld Meetup April 17th
Discussion article for the meetup : Bielefeld Meetup April 17th
WHEN: 17 April 2013 07:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Grill/Bar Verve, Klosterplatz 13, Bielefeld
We are meeting once again in Bielefeld.
The topics of this evening are not yet determined, but will be in the next days, or ... |
a44a9627-685c-4e87-821f-d376af2b6f92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality diary, 1/9/13
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for the week of January 7th. It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
* Established a useful new habit
* Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some belie... |
7938653d-0654-415d-aee5-5f42c33e104b | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Behaviorism historically began with Pavlov's studies into classical conditioning. When dogs see food they naturally salivate. When Pavlov rang a bell before giving the dogs food, the dogs learned to associate the bell with the food and salivate even after they merely heard the bell . When Pavlov rang the bell a few ti... |
b9c20fe8-696e-42e6-8c23-d83e55f5635b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A Primer on God, Liberalism and the End of History
*Epistemic status: uncertain, potentially confused.*
Medieval Christendom
--------------------
Medieval Europe’s political life was extremely fractured. The old continent was ruled by a variety of often feuding kings, emperors, lords and princes. Yet, political an... |
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