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8568dc4c-1484-44a7-985e-f9b4f596a84e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Online Sports Gambling Experiment Has Failed
Related: Book Review: On the Edge: The Gamblers I have previously been heavily involved in sports betting. That world was very good to me. The times were good, as were the profits. It was a skill game, and a form of positive-sum entertainment, and I was happy to partici... |
3fdd7902-13f2-40a7-a141-c1c6fcd066be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Letting Kids Be Outside
When our kids were 7 and 5 they started walking home from school alone. We wrote explaining they were ready and giving permission, the school had a few reasonable questions, and that was it. Just kids walking home from the local public school like they have in this neighborhood for generations.... |
474a9726-58fa-49c7-a9e4-96584c7a1356 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes Thread October 2015
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* ... |
270879c8-7536-4221-a046-aa86210d5642 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | No need to click
I hate when people share articles based only on the headline. My rough guess is that this is 90% of article shares, even when the sharer [thinks they've read the article](https://www.cold-takes.com/honesty-about-reading/); [NPR's April Fools joke](https://gawker.com/npr-pulled-a-brilliant-april-fools-... |
3aba3aa4-13e7-47e1-955c-dcc9bb1a5ea2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Apply to the ML for Alignment Bootcamp (MLAB) in Berkeley [Jan 3 - Jan 22]
We ([Redwood Research](https://www.redwoodresearch.org/) and [Lightcone Infrastructure](https://www.lightconeinfrastructure.com/)) are organizing a bootcamp to bring people interested in AI Alignment up-to-speed with the state of modern ML engi... |
5a45d302-978f-4bc4-bc3c-fa3751255860 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Symbolic Reinforcement Learning for Safe RAN Control
1. Introduction and Motivation
-------------------------------
Due to the growing complexity of modern cellular networks, network optimization and control constitutes one of the main challenges. It is desirable by the Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) that the conf... |
8431c55e-53be-4c89-a450-93bef9589701 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Frankfurt Open Mic (Thinking Fast and Slow, Happiness and Money,...)
Discussion article for the meetup : Frankfurt Open Mic (Thinking Fast and Slow, Happiness and Money,...)
WHEN: 10 August 2014 02:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Frankfurt
We'll have another meetup! TOP: 1) 14:00, Arriving and Getting to know each ... |
2cdd24d2-587a-410f-b789-8cca79cf49fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ChatGPT and Ideological Turing Test
It seems to me that ChatGPT should be able to pass the Ideological Turing Test -- to generate a convincingly looking argument for any side of an issue. It is obvious how to use this ability for evil purposes: write the bottom line, and generate the arguments.
I think this can also ... |
82e43666-534d-41a8-b58f-a0ad7a824e5b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | On the correspondence between AI-misalignment and cognitive dissonance using a behavioral economics model
*This essay is one of the awarded essays for the* [*Econ Theory AI Alignment Prize*](https://www.super-linear.org/prize?recordId=recEx8ggKExudV8Mf) *from* [*Superlinear*](https://www.super-linear.org/)*. The essay... |
07c2e566-9402-49fc-aba8-b2d8b05011f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Kind of Pragmatism
Recently I've been thinking about pragmatism, the school of philosophy which says that beliefs and concepts are justified based on their usefulness. In LessWrong jargon, it's the idea that "rationality is systematized winning" taken to its logical conclusion— we should only pursue "true beliefs" ... |
48871c78-9e62-4d82-a235-aba5a65ef045 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AlphaStar: Impressive for RL progress, not for AGI progress
DeepMind [released their AlphaStar paper a few days ago](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning), having reached Grandmaster level at the partial-information real-time strategy ga... |
62530ad1-2009-4f03-9e92-32dc5d5a4521 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditional Forecasting as Model Parameterization
This work was done jointly with Rajashree Agrawal. We'd like to thank the Epoch AI summer mentorship project, led with Forecasting Research Institute, for introducing us. Thanks to Josh Rosenberg, Tegan McCaslin, Avital Morris and others at FRI, as well as Jaime Sevill... |
f9b12ca9-7786-4d7c-be67-045f5da89012 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Failing to fix a dangerous intersection
Over the last few years, many people have written about why America can't build things anymore (eg. here, although this is just one of hundreds of relevant essays). Ten years ago, when I was 21 and had just graduated, a friend told me about a dangerous intersection in Berkeley. ... |
eb3288da-0f6b-4a69-a58c-a5136664204d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can talk, can think, can suffer.
Executive summary: heavy on Westworld, SF, AI, Cognitive Sciences, metaphysical sprouting and other cracked poteries.
//
Supplementary tag: lazystory, which means a story starting short and dirty, then each iteration is refined and evolved with the help of muses, LLMs and other occas... |
5775b21f-33f8-44ac-b29b-8a5dec5e8c28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biosafety Regulations (BMBL) and their relevance for AI
AI regulations could draw inspiration from the field of biosafety regulation, specifically the CDC's guidelines for Biosafety in Microbiological & Biomedical Laboratories (BMBL), which outline the necessary precautions for working with dangerous biological agents... |
7b878db9-539f-4639-9ea1-1474c252307e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How did LW update p(doom) after LLMs blew up?
Here's something which makes me feel very much as if I'm in a cult:
After LLMs became a massive thing, I've heard a lot of people p(doom) on the basis that we were in shorter timelines.
How have we updated p(doom) on the idea that LLMs are very different than hypothesiz... |
27d563f6-77f2-46d6-becb-406cbd14bab1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Draft of Muehlhauser & Salamon, 'Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import'
Anna Salamon and I have finished a draft of "Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import", under peer review for The Singularity Hypothesis: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment (forthcoming from Springer).
Your comments are most welco... |
b65cdf58-ad0a-4106-847e-f609f0c0cad1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Book Suggestions] Summer Reading for Younglings.
I bought my niece a Kindle that just arrived and I'm about to load it up with books to give it to her tomorrow for her birthday. I've decided to be a sneaky uncle and include good books that can teach better abilities to think or at least to consider science cool and i... |
24607a96-0083-4e15-8644-2f670f5e347e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tactics against Pascal's Mugging
This is meant as a rough collection of five ideas of mine on potential anti-Pascal Mugging tactics. I don't have much hope that the first three will be any useful at all and am afraid that I'm not mathematically-inclined enough to know if the last two are any good even as a partial sol... |
c99388ad-be47-404d-91cd-a21995352573 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Machine learning could be fundamentally unexplainable
I’m going to consider a fairly unpopular idea: most efforts towards “explainable AI” are essentially pointless. Useful as an academic pursuit and topic for philosophical debate, but not much else.
Consider this article a generator of interesting intuitions and vie... |
5ad25e8b-84ec-416b-aa5e-7ac387b0bf30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overcoming Clinginess in Impact Measures
|
5f078429-99d9-48ef-979e-8e2f685dc5cf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Make Billions of Dollars Reducing Loneliness
Loneliness Is a Big Problem
On Facebook, my friend Tyler writes:
> Lately, I've been having an alarming amount of conversations arise about the burdens of loneliness, alienation, rootlessness, and a lack of belonging that many of my peers feel, especially in the Bay... |
15e87b5f-20e7-4b1e-857a-d7dea639780e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brief update on the consequences of my "Two arguments for not thinking about ethics" (2014) article
In March 2014, I posted on LessWrong an article called "Two arguments for not thinking about ethics (too much)", which started out with:
> I used to spend a lot of time thinking about formal ethics, trying to figure ou... |
8b63fc20-47e7-43d5-b619-be8d13eb0243 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Grey Hoodie Project: Big Tobacco, Big Tech, and the threat on academic integrity
1. Introduction
----------------
Imagine if, in mid-December of 2019, over 10,000 health policy researchers made the yearly pilgrimage to the largest international health policy conference in the world. Among the many topics discus... |
bb52df14-e4aa-4441-9560-eaf6109f2039 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A.I. Robustness: a Human-Centered Perspective on Technological Challenges and Opportunities
A.I. Robustness: a Human-Centered Perspective on
Technological Challenges and Opportunities
ANDREA TOCCHETTI∗, LORENZO CORTI∗, AGATHE BALAYN∗, MIREIA YURRITA, PHILIP
LIPPMANN, MARCO BRAMBILLA, and JIE YANG†
Despite the impressi... |
b6108112-9daa-4b7f-bfb6-06adabb4a877 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unbounded utility functions and precommitment
According to orthodox expected utility theory, the boundedness of the utility function follows from standard decision-theoretic assumptions, like Savage's fairly weak axioms or the von Neumann-Morgenstern continuity/the Archimedean property axiom. Unbounded expected utilit... |
189c6c32-c18c-4b23-b4c0-d10590b78e1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Most Prisoner's Dilemmas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Schelling Problems
I previously claimed that most apparent Prisoner's Dilemmas are actually Stag Hunts. I now claim that they're Schelling Pub in practice. I conclude with some lessons for fighting Moloch.
This post turned out especially dense with inferent... |
8c92289b-e6d2-4b9b-9db5-3eb516f45653 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Some thoughts on "AI could defeat all of us combined"
This week I found myself tracing back from Zvi's [To predict what happens, ask what happens](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/to-predict-what-happens-ask-what) ([a](https://archive.ph/ZEF0N)) to Ajeya's [Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transforma... |
6e2dda86-86fb-4b8e-ba6a-0c6cca384fc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Signaling-based observations of (other) students
(Note: in Germany, tutorials are exercise sessions, typically weekly and mandatory, which accompany a lecture. They are held in groups of 5-30 students and are lead by a more advanced student whom I call the instructor.)
There is an interesting pattern I noticed during... |
ba78fbb1-aaed-4d8f-b04d-c751a752b647 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Fake Justification
Today's post, Fake Justification was originally published on 01 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> We should be suspicious of our tendency to justify our decisions with arguments that were not actually the deciding factor. Whatever process you use to make your decis... |
3d14d055-6f20-4b4e-bfc3-446616b210f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Computational Complexity as an Intuition Pump for LLM Generality
With sufficient scale and scaffolding, LLMs will improve without bound on all tasks to become superhuman AGI, to the extent they haven’t already. No, wait! LLMs are dead-end pattern-matching machines fundamentally incapable of general reasoning and nov... |
c1480068-06bc-4293-a7e7-f6ae681af556 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moving Factward
In the legendarium of J.R.R. Tolkien, the land of the gods is known as "The Uttermost West." For the world was originally created flat, and the gods took the westernmost region of this flat world for their dwelling place.
On our globe, of course, there is no westernmost point. And yet it is still the ... |
e8abc0e0-13c5-463f-a0a7-86956e7240e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Futarchy using a sealed-bid auction to avoid liquidity problems
Futarchy is usually formulated using multiple continuously running markets, which raises questions about how to introduce liquidity, when to introduce it, and who will do so. Robin Hanson (the inventor of futarchy) recently proposed how to handle some of ... |
a933f4da-9020-4618-b753-f312d736ed6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | November 2018 gwern.net newsletter
None |
ac484247-8fd8-42fc-b260-3051760cc6b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The trolley problem, and what you should do if I'm on the tracks
Originally published in French. Translation by Épiphanie.
Trigger warning: Death, suicide, and murder. Trolley problem.
This is quite the conventional and ethical conundrum: You are near train tracks, and a train is rolling down the hill. It is going t... |
c7380de0-6c95-48f7-8a48-8a3c4efcb04d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Project proposal: Testing the IBP definition of agent
Context
-------
Our team in SERI MATS needs to choose a project to work on for the next month. We spent the first two weeks discussing the alignment problem and what makes it difficult, and proposing (lots of) projects to look for one that we think would directly... |
fa68247a-1e93-4d8e-9ce1-4a790ffd2fe4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misalignment-by-default in multi-agent systems
Summary of this post
This is the second post in a three-part sequence on instrumental convergence in multi-agent RL. Read Part 1 here.
In this post, we’ll:
1. Define formal multi-agent POWER (i.e., instrumental value) in a setting that contains a "human" agent and an "... |
1abea087-5745-4396-92bc-f54398a48c4d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Phase transitions and AGI
Take a look at the following graph, from Robin Hanson's [Long-Term Growth As a Sequence of Exponential Modes](https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.pdf):
Here, "world product" is roughly the gross world product divided b... |
fd4341c5-a746-4312-8eba-192c5069d541 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SotW: Check Consequentialism
(The Exercise Prize series of posts is the Center for Applied Rationality asking for help inventing exercises that can teach cognitive skills. The difficulty is coming up with exercises interesting enough, with a high enough hedonic return, that people actually do them and remember them; ... |
c4d9c654-aebc-408c-a45e-92bc40feea0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How could I measure the nootropic benefits testosterone injections may have?
I came across a post written by Gwern in which he says he never injected Testosterone before but is curious to know more about its potential nootropic benefits. I'm suspecting that its more people than just him who are curious about that soo ... |
5a8e01e5-ad58-437b-92c2-30a1a75efd6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The types of manipulation on vote-based forums
|
ea70dc05-8aa6-4ab3-9f8f-845e88d2e2fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Climate Change And Global Warming
1. Understanding Climate Change
See: Wikipedia: Climate Change.
I support the scientific consensus that climate change and global warming are ongoing, human-caused, and likely to have strong negative consequences for humans, the Earth, and the world’s ecosystems. The evidence is clea... |
6959a514-6c89-47b4-b355-1ea28da3347b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making Up Baby Signs
Babies are often mentally ready to start talking before they have enough control over their mouths, at a time when they may have enough control over their arms and hands to make simple gestures; a lot of otherwise verbal families have had good experiences with signing. If you look around online fo... |
cb633608-f793-4839-a5f4-e4307d6e2115 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology is soliciting ideas
The question that the ideas are supposed to be in response to is:
> What are the critical infrastructures that only government can help provide that are needed to enable creation of new biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information tec... |
2d7848f9-5f6f-44d1-98c0-82c09431e818 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Parable of Hemlock
> "All men are mortal. Socrates is a man. Therefore Socrates is mortal."
> — Aristotle(?)
Socrates raised the glass of hemlock to his lips...
"Do you suppose," asked one of the onlookers, "that even hemlock will not be enough to kill so wise and good a man?"
"No," replied ... |
8cd5d8c7-fa18-440d-a9c5-3694ac8b7957 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Eliezer Yudkowsky "Friendly AI"
so this is also a new talk for me
because Nick Bostrom covered a lot of
the material that I would usually put
into a talk so I had to quickly scurry
off and design another talk that would
not overlap with his talk let's start
with a old tragedy of science that is a
case where some some ... |
c4e0702c-c60c-4f91-b646-e1dd31100384 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Voting Phase of 2018 LW Review
For the past 1.5 months on LessWrong, we've been doing a major review of 2018 — looking back at old posts and asking which of them have stood the test of time.
The LessWrong 2018 Review has three major goals.
* First, it is an experiment in improving the LessWrong community's longte... |
28186ddf-a5af-47d9-8b52-6dbe049d978a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #85]: The normative questions we should be asking for AI alignment, and a surprisingly good chatbot
[View this email in your browser](https://mailchi.mp/84b4235cfa34/an-85-the-normative-questions-we-should-be-asking-for-ai-alignment-and-a-surprisingly-good-chatbot?e=[UNIQID])
Find all Alignment Newsletter resourc... |
9c4d8235-3791-4b68-8858-d061a0663e96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The map of ideas how the Universe appeared from nothing
There is a question which is especially disturbing during sleepless August nights, and which could cut your train of thought with existential worry at any unpredictable moment.
The question is, “Why does anything exist at all?” It seems more logical that nothing... |
a45bdfd8-16ea-4f2d-9f64-7a1f85da141e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Naturalism
According to me, this sequence has been pretty darn abstract.
That was kind of on purpose. It’s the opposite of what I like to do, of what I think I’m good at. I much prefer to engage with an actual specific thing, and to share the details of my experience as I go. This big picture stuff is really not my ... |
b41f5ad0-c0b6-4a3e-9e32-0fceefee71e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Portland Oregon
Discussion article for the meetup : Portland Oregon
WHEN: 22 September 2012 12:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Lucky Labrador Tap Room 1700 North Killingsworth Street, Portland, OR
LessWrong Portland
Discussion article for the meetup : Portland Oregon |
6e960a8f-8d8e-4a36-aa01-d643d09f2f1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ukraine
I am not really following your discussion about ethics of having children, but I thought I would mention Uriupina.com, a blogger from your city who does take the radical "antinatalist" position. For her it's a development out of a generally pessimist philosophy, and I think she studied psychology too... So, sh... |
1bf4e88b-ae14-4643-b4b1-5dc8238dc9a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Temporarily Out of Office
Just an update that for the next 5 weeks I personally am not working on LW, while I graduate (prepare and take finals), and Oliver is not working for ~3 weeks while he does the same. Ray will be god-of-LW until then. #RayOfSunshine
(I will be around because LW is one of the main things I hab... |
e91733e4-408d-4149-8b24-7d0e824fcfcf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Bragging Thread October 2015
Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be as blatantly proud of yourself as you feel. You may unabashedly consider yourself the coolest freaking person ever because of that awesome thi... |
d62698cd-30b7-412f-ae1b-614ba4bdc8a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] A minimal viable product for alignment
This is a link post for https://aligned.substack.com/p/alignment-mvp
I'm writing a sequence of posts on the approach to alignment I'm currently most excited about. This second post argues that instead of trying to solve the alignment problem once and for all, we can succe... |
9129fa08-7a40-48cf-a84b-c889077a70ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When beliefs become identities, truth-seeking becomes hard
This is Rational Animations' script for the video linked above. This time, the topic is the "Rethinking Identity" section in the book "The Scout Mindset" by Julia Galef. As always, feedback is welcome.
Previously, we made a video about how scorn for ideas and... |
a1f120a2-3d60-41c1-a581-08d978d35ba2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The radioactive burrito and learning from positive examples
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Jessica presented a system learning only from positive examples. Given examples of burritos, it computes a distribution b over possible burritos. When it comes to creating its own burritos, however, it can only... |
eaae8086-9178-4beb-b02b-8692a2ae3467 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Football, quantum chromodynamics, figure skating and statistics
(Cross-posted from Telescopic Turnip.)
“He—and he is almost always a he—is a venture capitalist who has analyzed the hospitalizations data! He is a growth hacker with a piercing view of race and measures of intelligence! He is an industry analyst with in... |
8e6304b5-de55-4aaf-8adc-fa35cb6d8465 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Why can’t we just “put the AI in a box” so that it can’t influence the outside world?
One possible way to ensure the safety of a powerful AI system is to keep it contained in a software environment. There is nothing intrinsically wrong with this procedure—keeping an AI system in a secure software environment would mak... |
c2749ec7-1e4e-4a8c-8622-effa98a09653 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will we witness the compassion of a nation?
What is it that Trump has done, when looked at through the lens of compassion?
Trump has nurtured a paranoid false reality in which people are helpless victims of a Hostile and Malevolent State. He has maintained and occupied this Alternative reality for enough time, and co... |
46d8b8bd-5774-46f3-ac98-b34a5da885ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Halpern’s paper - A refutation of Cox’s theorem?
What implications does the paper “A Counter Example to Theorems of Cox and Fine” by J. Y. Halpern have for Cox’s theorem and probability theory as extended logic? This is the description of the paper:
“Cox's well-known theorem justifying the use of probability is shown... |
ca2e3f03-8590-4641-b82e-3b99f432b3a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Catching Up With the Present From the Developing World
Hi all, I'm leaving Lesswrong for a few months to pursue a Masters, and this Text below will never be finished. It is just a story of what is it like to grow up outside where everything is going on, a country where humanities are sad and terrible, and people are f... |
8f3af355-1c09-4fda-a831-fe4a731f2d95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brainstorming help request: teaching rationality basics in an RPG setting
EDIT: Minor updates happened.
----------------------------------------
I'd like to ask you all for thoughts on a certain idea I'm toying with. Especially any of you who are familiar with the Wheel of Time fantasy series by Robert Jordan.... |
d1454ea9-79f9-478b-8654-d7918a88a9b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Imitative Reinforcement Learning as an AGI Approach
I've been thinking that reinforcement-learning-driven imitation between agents may be an explanation of human intelligence, and is worth exploring more as an approach to AGI.
It's difficult to get agents to exhibit the complex behaviors humans do with most optimizat... |
e8d96e72-c5ec-48d1-ac5d-d53953133e4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An X-Ray is Worth 15 Features: Sparse Autoencoders for Interpretable Radiology Report Generation
This is an archival link-post for our preprint, which can be found here.
Figure 1: SAE-Rad identifies clinically relevant and interpretable features within radiological images. We illustrate a number of pathological and i... |
ef052c17-6d44-4dfd-a6f7-30c1f4c7dadd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What’s so dangerous about AI anyway? – Or: What it means to be a superintelligence
(Intended for an audience that is not convinced that an AI could physically pose a threat to humanity. In a similar spirit to [AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oBBzqkZwkxDvsKBGB/ai-could-defeat-all-of-... |
773b2c02-bf0e-4da3-8a91-0d530e0cec20 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Alignment Megaprojects: You're Not Even Trying to Have Ideas
Consider the [state of funding](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WGpFFJo2uFe5ssgEb/an-overview-of-the-ai-safety-funding-situation#Is_AI_safety_talent_or_funding_constrained_) for [AI alignment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-alignment).
Is th... |
daf2ebbf-a597-4c1e-a845-57447013ad97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What science needs
Science does not need more scientists. It doesn't even need you, brilliant as you are. We already have many times more brilliant scientists than we can fund. Science could use a better understanding of the scientific method, but improving how individuals do science would not address most of the p... |
1ae43656-e2aa-470f-9ede-c4f03e7f5950 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An overview of the points system
This is the current idea of how the points system for AI-plans.com works. There are still problems to be worked out, which I'd very much like some input on.
An overview of how the points system works:
Criticisms
Each criticism has one metric- how many criticism points it has
Users ... |
d80a88e6-50a0-4619-af54-61a0481dc63c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Strongly Asymptotically Optimal Agent in General Environments
1 Introduction
---------------
>
> “Efforts to solve [an instance of the exploration-exploitation problem] so sapped the energies and minds of Allied analysts that the suggestion was made that the problem be dropped over Germany, as the ultimate inst... |
17ef97c8-edc1-41db-9294-e509f9e4e1bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mathematicians and the Prevention of Recessions
Note: I completed a PhD in Mathematics from University of Illinois under the direction of Nathan Dunfield in 2011. I worked as a research analyst at GiveWell from April 2012 to May 2013. All views expressed here are my own.
About this post: I've long been interested in ... |
1374fa8a-3681-4434-9901-73e5a4a24c0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bad news for uploading
Recently, the Blue Brain Project published a paper arguing that human neurons don't form synapses at locations determined by learning, but just wherever they bump into each other. See video and article here.
For those people hoping to upload their brains by mapping out and virtually duplicatin... |
c028e95f-98f1-46e1-9a47-e0cc95070334 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking Estimates for P(Hell)
I am trying to decide how to allocate my charitable donations between GiveWell's top charities and MIRI, and I need a probability estimate to make an informed decision. Could you help me?
Background on my moral system: I place a greater value on reducing high doses of suffering of consc... |
75219ca1-ced2-4044-ac0e-53f5267d2a0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Existentialists and Trolleys
How might an existentialist approach this notorious thought experiment of ethical philosophy?
> “Not only do we assert that the existentialist doctrine permits the elaboration of an ethics, but it even appears to us as the only philosophy in which an ethics has its place.” ―Simone de Beau... |
49ccbe63-4c33-4f87-a999-06b72c585395 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 11
"If we let ethical considerations get in the way of scientific hubris, then the feminists have won!"
-- Helarxe
"The trajectory to hell is paved with locally-good intentions."
-- Matt Gingell
"To a mouse, cheese is cheese; that's why mousetraps work."
-- Wendell Johnson,... |
29db8cb0-f9a1-4bc3-a1fc-649c976ca719 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Simple group
A simple group is a [https://arbital.com/p/-3gd](https://arbital.com/p/-3gd) with no [normal subgroups](https://arbital.com/p/4h6). |
d8e075d4-acb0-4d4d-bb68-b4123a32a951 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We need better prediction markets
I have 0 exposure to cryptocurrencies and I don't work in that industry, but the recent news about FTX plummeting to the ground have left me thinking quite a bit.
It's extremely surprising how a person can go from one day being considered a "genius" or a shrewd business man to being ... |
e32d819c-ce17-4c1e-8378-bf4e19381c93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do not ask what rationalists should do
Recently there has been a couple of articles in the discussion page asking whether rationalists should do action A. Now such questions are not uninteresting, but by saying "rationalist" they are poorly phrased.
The rational decision at any time is the decision, given a human wit... |
47a816b1-4553-4260-9f48-c655c5535e99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality diary, 8/20/12
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for the week of August 20th. It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
* Established a useful new habit
* Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some beli... |
17e55809-b2df-457e-b812-69b7a739d73a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Maximum Causal Tsallis Entropy Imitation Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
In this paper, we focus on the problem of imitating demonstrations of
an expert who behaves non-deterministically depending on the situation.
In imitation learning, it is often assumed that the expert’s policy is
deterministic.
However... |
11af412b-749d-4389-be92-71da2a6dee7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Focused-grit and TAPs
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Focused-grit and TAPs
WHEN: 02 November 2014 04:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Humanist House, 10 Shepherd St Chippendale
The next dojo will be run by our new CFAR alumnus Taryn, who will be talking about ... |
f6e31408-f16c-4fa1-931d-09e673c91f58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have no excuses
> Except in a very few [tennis] matches, usually with world-class performers, there is a point in every match (and in some cases it's right at the beginning) when the loser decides he's going to lose. And after that, everything he does will be aimed at providing an explanation of why he will have lost.... |
f8dfda34-4fb0-4a9a-9b2d-2db3b1869327 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much, and on what margins, should we be rethinking quarantine protocols?
This not a researched or even all that thought out question. Perhaps it's a long rambling collection of thoughts tossed into some basket, shaken a bit and then labelled as question.
Zvi's Omicrom 12 post regarding the impact of infections on... |
4394d522-c379-44cf-99b7-c2ecafe0da2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Now Accepting Player Applications for Band of Blades
I'm running my very first paid RPG campaign! I'm reaching out to the LW / ACX community first to see if we can fill the player roster, because y'all are pretty cool. I'm posting this here so I can link to it from elsewhere without a massive text dump.
The Campaig... |
b0219d42-c813-4c5b-90aa-d9464513dc63 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | First-order Adversarial Vulnerability of Neural Networks and Input Dimension
1 Introduction
---------------
Following the work of Goodfellow et al. ([2015](#bib.bib7)), Convolutional Neural
Networks (CNNs) have been found vulnerable to adversarial examples: an
adversary can drive the performance of state-of-the art... |
ecd90350-3ebb-4752-bf3f-7d1851987450 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interview on IQ, genes, and genetic engineering with expert (Hsu)
|
46fce202-3c58-4e14-9f2d-7dc204a404da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Universal Fire
Today's post, Universal Fire was originally published on April 27, 2007. A summary (from the LW wiki):
> You can't change just one thing in the world and expect the rest to continue working as before.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments of the original post).
This post is ... |
c658a404-6688-4dbc-9f80-b3f518c9c655 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Solomonoff prior is malign. It's not a big deal.
Epistemic status: Endorsed at ~85% probability. In particular, there might be clever but hard-to-think-of encodings of observer-centered laws of physics that tilt the balance in favor of physics. Also, this isn't that different from Mark Xu's post.
Previously, prev... |
1daa323d-cc26-4a14-a91c-d3ac6eb799b1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What safety problems are associated with whole brain emulation?
It [seems improbable](/?state=8GJ3&question=Will%20whole%20brain%20emulation%20arrive%20before%20other%20forms%20of%20AGI%3F) that whole brain emulation (WBE) arrives before [neuromorphic AI](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/neuromorphic-ai), because a ... |
5a41e206-22fa-4d99-81ba-8f6eea33ec00 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Four Ways An Impact Measure Could Help Alignment
Impact penalties are designed to help prevent an artificial intelligence from taking actions which are catastrophic.
Despite the apparent simplicity of this approach, there are in fact a plurality of different frameworks under which impact measures could prove helpful.... |
1f804917-5fb9-440c-8c0f-6a414a7d8b6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How my social skills went from horrible to mediocre
Over the past few months, I've become aware that my understanding of social reality had been distorted to an extreme degree. It took 29 years for me to figure out what was going on, but I finally now understand.
The situation is very simple: The amount of time that ... |
d73eea70-02ce-4c1d-a6a5-dfdbb8be3fe4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A Survey of the Potential Long-term Impacts of AI
***Aim**: survey the potential long-term impacts of AI, striking a balance between comprehensiveness and parsimony.*
***Where this fits with similar work**: as far as we know, the best existing materials on this topic are [this slide deck](https://docs.google.com/pre... |
60a0098b-7123-4d22-ac78-c2896155016f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Not Quite 'Ask a Librarian': AI on the Nature, Value, and Future of LIS
This is an author preprint. Please refer to the final published
version:
Dinneen, J. D., Bubinger, H. (2021). Not Quite ’Ask a
Librarian’: AI on the nature, value, and future of LIS. In
ASIS&T ‘21: Proceedings of the 84th Annual Meeting of the
Ass... |
9a72c1ad-2f01-4006-bb54-282ff4d0ad0d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Shane Legg on prospect theory and computational finance
>
> People are *not* rational expected utility maximisers. When we have to make decisions, all sorts of cognitive biases and distortions come into play. Seminal work in this area was done by Kahneman and Tversky. They produced a model of human decision making... |
55e1ab30-cf8c-429e-a424-ced504379ce8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probability, knowledge, and meta-probability
This article is the first in a sequence that will consider situations where probability estimates are not, by themselves, adequate to make rational decisions. This one introduces a "meta-probability" approach, borrowed from E. T. Jaynes, and uses it to analyze a gambling pr... |
abaea353-725d-4c0b-b051-ed44d840dece | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Status - is it what we think it is?
I was re-reading the chapter on status in Impro (excerpt), and I noticed that Johnstone seemed to be implying that different people are comfortable at different levels of status: some prefer being high status and others prefer being low status. I found this peculiar, because the pre... |
38c83f8e-288b-4e36-9c01-1daf4cce1bd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To Inspire People to Give, Be Public About Your Giving
Many people think it would be nicer if people were to give more money to non-profits, especially effective ones. However, for most people, it doesn't even occur to them that they giving a large share of their salary to charity is something that people actually ca... |
09c2d041-03e1-400c-a872-4f88765985a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Thoughts on the impact of RLHF research
In this post I’m going to describe my basic justification for working on RLHF in 2017-2020, which I still stand behind. I’ll discuss various arguments that RLHF research had an overall negative impact and explain why I don’t find them persuasive.
I'll also clarify that I don't ... |
bf7775c2-70b9-4aa3-a0fc-d8e642dde06a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Born rule or universal prior?
You're about to flip a quantum coin a million times (these days you can even do it on the internet). What's your estimate of the K-complexity of the resulting string, conditional on everything else you've observed in your life so far? The Born rule, combined with the usual counting argume... |
a3896995-3680-4fbb-815e-fd08870ac9b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Oct. 10 - Oct. 16, 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
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