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f27c09f0-65ae-418e-9a26-af5655ca5d90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Strengths of the Two Systems of Cognition
The two systems of cognition a la Kahneman each seem to each have roles that they fulfill better than the other and in which, for optimal performance, the other system ought not to interfere. Until recently, I had only really thought about when System 2 ought to override S... |
04bd2134-b883-47f4-8b1d-14423f7f62df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Shorts 9/22, and An Essay in Defense of Technodeterminism
Possibly all our fear over declining interstate migration is a …. data artifact? h/t Evan Soltas.
CPS data seem to noticeably diverge from the rest of the models, which I think it’s fair to say is suspicious.
So, you know how everything started going ... |
7d273fd7-f3ac-4e03-9153-96fbb5170033 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Test Your Calibration!
In my journeys across the land, I have, to date, encountered four sets of probability calibration tests. (If you just want to make bets on your predictions, you can use Intrade or another prediction market, but these generally don't record calibration data, only which of your bets paid out.) If ... |
dcbf292a-1a42-453c-9ee9-4f78657d4e79 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Will Artificial Superintelligence Kill Us?
For Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest
**Introduction**
Through advancements in machine learning, we are progressing towards the development of artificial superintelligence (ASI). As machine learning often yields opaque results, our predictions about ASI behavior in no... |
96e4589f-c680-46b9-8972-50064b12ba23 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Democratic Fine-Tuning
*The project below, “Democratic Fine-tuning with a Moral Graph” (*DFTmg.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: n... |
b3fae7e8-011f-4cb8-b28c-cbddfb02a0a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci September 2022: The Allocation Helm
This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
You are the Allocation Helm, a piece of magical headwear employed at Swineboils College of... |
2b417c92-f6ad-4ae2-aa25-ba351173b0c1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Doing Global Priorities or AI Policy research from remote location?
Hello there,
I first discovered 80,000 hours a couple of months ago, and have since fallen in love with EA. I've read plenty of the content, both online and in books, but this is the first time I am connecting to the community and writing a post on t... |
3368719a-1edc-4c54-b356-0ddc2ec99457 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds
As part of my work for Open Philanthropy I’ve written a [draft report](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/what-a-compute-centric-framework-says-about-takeoff-speeds/) on AI takeoff speeds, the question of how quickly AI capabilities might improve as ... |
b7985272-11ac-4b89-bd39-e5c94d879a37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA: Lightning Talks
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA: Lightning Talks
WHEN: 27 May 2015 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 11066 Santa Minica blvd, LA, CA
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. We will be in the back room if possible.
Parking is free in the lot out front or on the street nearby.
D... |
40d5c738-3739-490a-b94c-46c23715784a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Modeling Human-AI Team Decision Making
1 Introduction
---------------
Group decision making has been ever important in organizations and missions. And now, intelligent agents have become fundamental to everyday life: assistants on mobile devices, pedagogical agents in tutoring systems, and robots collaborating with... |
6c289b76-105f-46e7-ae4c-f7c4200e665f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes April 2012
Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not quote you... |
574a049c-b772-4262-8dff-efc204513bf5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Newcomb's Problem standard positions
Marion Ledwig's dissertation summarizes much of the existing thinking that's gone into Newcomb's Problem.
(For the record, I myself am neither an evidential decision theorist, nor a causal decision theorist in the current sense. My view is not easily summarized, but it is reflect... |
1edde0f4-3256-4d5d-93bc-2aedba7f8fad | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 2. Premise two: Some cases of value change are (il)legitimate
In the prior post, I have defended the claim that genuine value change is possible, and thus, that a realistic account of human values understands them to be malleable. In this section, I will argue for the claim that *some cases of value change are legitim... |
9fa1fca0-3a37-4ed0-a21f-b091914b3c33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dissolving Deep Questions: A Decline in Contemporary Controversy
I'm practicing dissolving questions. For some of these questions, there's no dispute as to the nature of the facts, and people are just arguing about what frame to hang life's picture in, what words to use to describe it. For others, there are real factu... |
41569afe-4fbf-4375-9f1c-ac5aed4d1e32 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Politico article on Open Phil, Horizon Fellowship, and EA
My apologies if this has been posted elsewhere!
The article basically suggests that the Horizon Policy Fellows might be sympathetic to big AI Labs because of their ties to Open Philanthropy, and/or that Fellows might be interested in types of long-term risk t... |
c831cbc5-4e47-4db3-8038-b6c9a33b3be8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Black Box Investigations Research Hackathon
TLDR; [**Join the Black Box Investigations Research Hackathon**](https://itch.io/jam/llm-hackathon) to participate with others in a weekend of alignment research on language models using a [cognitive psychology-style approach](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGaw4NqRha8hgx5n... |
502f1df7-a6bd-4318-896d-8c18a83c2d14 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | By failing to take serious AI action, the US could be in violation of its international law obligations
“Long-term risks remain, including the existential risk associated with the development of artificial general intelligence through self-modifying AI or other means”.
2023 Update to the US National Arti... |
327632f7-97cd-43c5-b37c-16148835546a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AISN #18: Challenges of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback, Microsoft’s Security Breach, and Conceptual Research on AI Safety
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required
Subscribe [here](... |
94437bf4-af6b-45db-b492-9a2727fd458e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Magic Arena Bot Drafting
Epistemic Status: Attempting to be useful and to learn via exploration. Real proposals. Content assumes familiarity with Magic: The Gathering booster drafting, but does not much depend on a knowledge of deep Magic strategy, so it holds potential interest for those interested in game narrow AI ... |
1431bc27-e887-4c4c-a5e9-92e17094b100 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a possibility that the upcoming scaling of data in language models causes A.G.I.?
In the past days we have seen DALL-E 2 and Google's Pathways Language Model achievements, and in the next months we will see the outcome of the recently discovered more optimal use of compute: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mid... |
199abd41-55aa-4e98-983e-6e30976dc19c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Halloween Party
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Halloween Party
WHEN: 30 October 2016 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Mosaic at Metro Apartments
We will be meeting at the residence of one of the meetup regulars for a Halloween party. The host promises "[f]ood, friends, fun... |
ea94fdaa-6268-4522-ab3f-b6a81efde0c6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The anchoring bias reflects rational use of cognitive resources.
Psychon Bull Rev (2018) 25:322–349
DOI 10.3758/s13423-017-1286-8
THEORETICAL REVIEW
The anchoring bias reflects rational use of cognitive
resources
Falk Lieder1,2·Thomas L. Griffiths1,5·Q u e n t i nJ .M .H u y s2,4·Noah D. Goodman3
Published online: 8 M... |
34fbaaa9-4279-4bbe-8fb9-0d6b440c21a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training Regime Day 12: Focusing
Note: Focusing for skeptics is a far better description than I could give. I will attempt my own description anyway, for triangulation reasons.
2nd note: this technique was invented by Eugene Gendlin. The book Focusing goes into more detail, although I'm told the audiobook is better.
... |
ab1e3a9c-1ae0-476d-a20d-bc34b1fda477 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
Highlights
* Comparing top forecasters and domain experts finds that past studies mainly were not comparing apples to apples and that the assertion that superforecasters were 30% better than intelligence analysts was unjustified.
* Samotsvety's Nuclear Forecasts got picked up in th... |
77f9b1aa-a729-494e-9cda-e68feaea7dfd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Trust in Math
Today's post, Trust in Math was originally published on 15 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> When you find a seeming inconsistency in the rules of math, or logic, or probability theory, you might do well to consider that math has rightfully earned a bit more credibility ... |
a347ecfb-3d92-4bce-95b8-297a19d5147a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Using modal fixed points to formalize logical causality
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-spa... |
5ee31a45-9aa4-4b4c-a803-88be1b0ed1a2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Preface to the Sequence on Factored Cognition
Factored Cognition is primarily [studied](https://ought.org/research/factored-cognition) by [Ought](https://ought.org/), the same organization that was partially credited for implementing the [interactive prediction feature](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6G... |
38543c2b-922c-4271-8c50-c415ba66446f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Stefano Albrecht – Learning to Distinguish Between Belief and Truth – CSRBAI 2016
welcome back our second speaker today is
is Stefan Elbert and a postdoctoral
fellow at the University of Texas at
Austin and in the department of computer
science and engineering and he works
chef now works on the Arian practice of
auton... |
20fda999-16ff-447c-b2f6-a9aaaaa9a8c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Any work on honeypots (to detect treacherous turn attempts)?
I know the idea of making a "honeypot" to detect when an AI system would attempt a treacherous turn if given the opportunity has been discussed (e.g. IIRC, in Superintelligence). But is there anyone actually working on this? Or any work that's been publish... |
a551ce04-a70e-44d6-ab74-e31e2caf7163 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Crosspost] Why Uncontrollable AI Looks More Likely Than Ever
This is a crosspost from [Time Magazine](https://time.com/6258483/uncontrollable-ai-agi-risks/), which also appeared in full at a number of [other](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/why-uncontrollable-ai-looks-more-likely-than-ever/ar-AA180fW9) unpa... |
447934e1-2ae7-4065-8ac5-fec6dffe4d30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Argument against 20% GDP growth from AI within 10 years [Linkpost]
Mohammed Bavarian, a research scientist at OpenAI, tweeted this thread arguing that he could see "the overall US GDP growth rising from recent avg 2-3% to 20+% in 10 years." Feel free to check out those arguments, though they'll probably be familiar to... |
3b37acb6-f938-4723-a4d5-e432592cc261 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are Functional languages the future of programming?
Because I have been learning about Type Theory, I have become much more aware of and interested in Functional Programming.
If you are unfamiliar with functional programming, Real World Haskell describes functional programming like this:
> In Haskell [and other fu... |
4c6d3b1f-3048-479e-8199-4428dbc8828e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What I’ll be doing at MIRI
Note: This is a personal post describing my own plans, not a post with actual research content.
Having finished my internship working with Paul Christiano and others at OpenAI, I’ll be moving to doing research at MIRI. I’ve decided to do research at MIRI because I believe MIRI will be the e... |
5f6df8c5-0489-45c1-814e-5028b39d310b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | While we're on the subject of meta-ethics...
The best theory of morality I've ever found is the one invented by Alonzo Fyfe, which he chose to call "desire utilitarianism."
This short e-book (warning: pdf), written by a commenter on Alonzo's blog, describes the theory very well. He also wrote a FAQ.
One great advant... |
08b83b17-c556-497a-acd9-1890c9623e52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Singularity Call For Papers
Amnon Eden has sent out this call for papers on technological singularity, which many Less Wrongers may be interested in. I presented at last year's conference, which was a good experience with many interesting people. Submitting good papers can help to legitimate and cultivate the field an... |
2a90762b-e034-4bbd-8cda-b9f5f85dd83f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Natural cultural relativists?
When given the same ability to punish anyone, cooperative people want to punish members of groups they identify with more than they do outsiders, while less cooperative people want to punish outsiders more. From the Journal of Evolution and Human Behavior:
One of the most critical featur... |
90bbe86b-de77-4eea-9be4-bf53b28fcfbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A great talk for AI noobs (according to an AI noob)
I'm far from an expert on AI and alignment but I really liked this Ted talk and think it serves as a good introduction to the topic. Here are some highlights:
It starts with a demo of what ChatGPT is currently or soon will be capable and it's bound to shocking to pl... |
d9a3fc12-a1cd-4b30-8884-59d06afa0623 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts On Democracy
How to govern society is one of the oldest philosophical problems, and while there aren’t any perfect solutions that can completely eliminate corruption, there are some pragmatic principles and heuristics that we can follow to generate a better society.
It is peculiar how the legislative and jur... |
1f75719a-e6c3-4627-9d53-9e9f985425a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NLP Position Paper: When Combatting Hype, Proceed with Caution
Linkpost for https://cims.nyu.edu/~sbowman/bowman2021hype.pdf. To appear on arXiv shortly.
I'm sharing a position paper I put together as an attempt to introduce general NLP researchers to AI risk concerns. From a few discussions at *ACL conferences, it s... |
205924c5-1426-408e-86b8-e5b162357def | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I was having a discussion with a friend and reading some related blog articles about the question of whether race affects IQ. (N.B. This post is NOT about the content of the arguments surrounding that question.) Now, like your typical LessWrong member, I subscribe to the Litany of Gendlin, I don’t want to hide from an... |
caf53086-bc6e-4b09-8e31-077e1c624990 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neural Scaling Laws Rooted in the Data Distribution
This is a linkpost for my recent research paper, which presents a theoretical model of power-law neural scaling laws.
Abstract:
> Deep neural networks exhibit empirical neural scaling laws, with error decreasing as a power law with increasing model or data size, ac... |
af3d8ab0-5fb9-46a6-b08e-d203e80b2052 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A ChatGPT story about ChatGPT doom
I asked ChatGPT, the much, much, much better version of GPT-3, to write a "a science fiction short story about human extinction caused by failure to realize the dangers of a chatbot like you called ChatGPT, that is likely to be enjoyed by the LessWrong community" It was to write the ... |
a3f83d82-749f-4f08-98e3-b98dcb68ddd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | June Monthly Bragging Thread
Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be as blatantly proud of yourself as you feel. You may unabashedly consider yourself the coolest freaking person ever because of that awesome thing you'r... |
76affb3f-bacd-429c-8164-dd133038372e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Podcast Recommendations
I know, books or blogs are often more informative than podcasts. But reading a book while going grocery shopping, bicycling or driving is kinda hard. And the last post on this topic didn't generate much discussion.
So, I ask again: Does anyone know of some interesting podcasts out there?
I'll... |
82728766-2462-4cae-a414-dbf78ca12a0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Offset Norms
One of the responses to last week's post about climate change was asking whether, if you donate to the AMF or another charity that saves lives, should you buy carbon offsets for the estimated emissions that causes?
I see this as a question of norms. The strongest case I see for offsetting here, is if you... |
662ec51f-1deb-4564-b6f8-108215a06499 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 30 Day Karma
Is the karma shown that accumulated from posts and comments that were made within the past 30 days, or from all votes on all posts within the past 30 days, regardless of the age of the post or comment? |
e33ef940-5f5f-4cc2-84fd-2d4c43e3ad66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Touch reality as soon as possible (when doing machine learning research)
TL;DR: I think new machine learning researchers often make one of two kinds of mistakes: not making enough contact with reality, and being too reluctant to form gears-level models of ML phenomena. Stereotypically, LW/AF researchers tend to make t... |
499fc19e-e6a6-45a9-ba51-0fc88de5f774 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I wrote a fantasy novel to promote EA: More Chapters
Note to Royal Road admin, yes, I plan to publish there. Not plagiarism.
I’m posting now several more chapters here, and of course the google doc link where you can read the whole thing and point at things that you think should be improved. The comments from the f... |
7209c141-f908-4649-be0e-e4df06d0adb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anyone read Erfworld?
Periodically people link to "rationalist" stories (or comics that are not really rational at all, that just happen to be vaguely related to AI), so I was a bit surprised to find not a single reference to Erfworld on a Lesswrong search.
Erfworld is a webcomic that essentially tells the same stor... |
e8f6a5c0-0d32-45e1-bce0-39384e667ad8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Writing this post as rationality case study
[Before I begin: If you don't like this post, please let me know why. Even just few words like boring/off-topic/poorly-written may give me something to work with.]
I wish to share a late struggle I have with rationality, because I think that it touches some interesting poin... |
f9376855-5c93-4026-b7b6-67b1f7f5ea23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | China Hawks are Manufacturing an AI Arms Race
This is the full text of a post from "The Obsolete Newsletter," a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the R... |
da45accd-14b9-4d99-8333-1da8e05bf394 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Failure Looks Like is not an existential risk (and alignment is not the solution)
Introduction
Among those thinking that AI is an existential risk, there seems to be significant disagreement on what the main threat model is. Threat model uncertainty makes it harder to reduce this risk: a faulty threat model used ... |
3fb0a1e6-d2c1-4306-b940-e8d60405ff0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Perspective-based Explanation to the Reflective Inconsistency Paradox
> My probability is 0.9, and I shall base all my decisions on that. Why not update the pre-game plan according to that probability? Because the pre-game plan is not my decision. It is an agreement among all participants: a coordination achieved ... |
231609ca-466d-4ecc-b647-b6ebaeafe73d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning
1 What is Interpretability?
----------------------------
#### Definition
Interpret means *to explain or to present in understandable
terms*.333Merriam-Webster dictionary, accessed 2017-02-07 In
the context of ML systems, we define interpretability as t... |
a2458928-b923-43c2-8911-a4e8c770535f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Go is a Better Game than Chess
Go is a better game than chess because its rules are simpler and more aesthetic, and lead to an emergent complexity and strategy that is at worst equal to the emergent complexity and strategy of chess.
I am no chess hater (I own a $500 chess board), but I've long thought that go is ... |
4de87310-3b60-45b8-b45e-c9ec11b4fef0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the best and worst affordances of twitter as a technology and as a social ecosystem?
Put another way, what do you see as the main incentive slopes of the feature set + existing user base? What slopes do you like, what slopes don't you like? |
cc6d1447-3769-41bd-861c-2684ba585d5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is progress in ML-assisted theorem-proving beneficial?
I want to believe that the outputs of the recently founded [Hoskinson Center for Formal Mathematics](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2021/september/hoskinson-center-for-formal-mathematics.html) (led by [Jeremy Avigad](https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/philoso... |
13438b69-23df-42cc-92e2-a1d7cd31c834 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misalignment or misuse? The AGI alignment tradeoff
I recently co-wrote a paper with Leonard Dung (accepted at Philosophical Studies) with the above title, preprint here. To post something short rather than nothing, below is the abstract:
Creating systems that are aligned with our goals is seen as a leading approach t... |
9fd9f608-b927-46ac-88ed-5b62db2494c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
***Disclaimer**: I work as a researcher at Anthropic, but this post entirely represents my own views, rather than the views of my own employer*
Introduction
------------
I’ve spent the past two years getting into the field of AI Safety. One important message I heard as I was... |
eac092a5-6618-4267-8afb-7d5ad369d419 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value evolution
Coherent extrapolated volition (CEV) asks what humans would want, if they knew more - if their values reached reflective equilibrium. (I don't want to deal with the problems of whether there are "human values" today; for the moment I'll consider the more-plausible idea that a single human who lived fo... |
129f2a0f-6146-438e-b7db-42953d58bad6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Log-linear Scaling is Worth the Cost due to Gains in Long-Horizon Tasks
This post makes a simple point, so it will be short. I am happy to discuss more in the comments, and based on this write a longer post later. Much prior work (eg: [1]) has shown that exponential data and compute is required for each unit improveme... |
65b0e997-c8d4-4de0-b67f-6389a2b187a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Searching for consequence-imagining games for children
A friend of mine has a rather precocious daughter with poor impulse control, and asked if I knew any behavior games that encourage children to think out the consequences of actions before they do them.
I'm familiar with the Good Behavior Game and the like, but st... |
9addcd1c-8300-42a2-940c-38dbb019fba5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Nick Beckstead on the Importance of the Far Future
 Nick Beckstead recently finished a Ph.D in philosophy at [Rutgers University](http://philosophy.rutgers.edu/), where he [focused](https://sites.google.com/site/nbeckstead/... |
15142dbf-7486-4a2d-b8f4-a9d1c009def4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Article on quantified lifelogging (Slate.com)
Data for a Better Planet focuses on The Quantified Self, and offers an overview of the state of the art in detailed, quantitative personal tracking.
This seems related to an LW interest cluster. |
1fed7d50-61e5-4e5e-b375-b46d00be8fba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The IQ of Artificial Intelligence
1
The IQ of Artificial Intelligence
Dimiter Dobrev
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
d@dobrev.com
All it takes to identify the computer programs which are Artificial Intelligence is to give them a
test and award AI to those that ... |
3934a54b-c469-48e9-8359-8ca73f14b308 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Agent is a Worldline in Tegmark V
If asked to define what an agent is, my usual answer -- one of them, anyway -- is “a worldline in Tegmark V”.
The Tegmark Level V Multiverse (the “V” here is a Roman numeral) is not defined by Max Tegmark (whose hierarchy goes only up to IV), but, as used in agent-foundations circ... |
3c1bd919-2670-46ab-8963-532c221c7220 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Arizona State Lunch Group
Discussion article for the meetup : Arizona State Lunch Group
WHEN: 03 September 2013 12:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 301 E. Orange Mall Tempe, AZ 85281
We will be meeting up at Engrained in the ASU memorial union (There are many other food options available in the same place). The goal... |
5fded94f-1256-4b35-bd0b-b7c202e9b28b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alpha
Summary
In the first half of this essay, I recount two anecdotes. (The impatient reader can skip these.) First, Gerald Murnane tries, around Melbourne in the 1950s, to find a system that'll make him money betting on horse races. Then, Bill Benter, in Hong Kong in the 1990s, comes up with a system for picking hor... |
40bfa759-c417-4cfc-a5b0-df9ec57b0810 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI utility-based correlation
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
This presents one way of implementing the indifference-based correlations of these posts.
Let u be a utility function, a map from worlds to real numbers. An expected utility maximiser considering whether to produce output Y, looks at the ex... |
ee27796b-e1d8-49c2-9757-7b090019f149 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wedneday 7pm
Dates: 7pm Wednesday June 8, 15, 22 and 29
Venue: The Bean Cycle, upstairs at the back if it's open. Look for the Less Wrong sign.
As these are the first few sessions of the meetup, there will be no formal agenda. I'll bring a few games to give us something to do while we g... |
26e9cadb-550a-4e38-8ace-b7d42999dfa0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta analysis of Writing Therapy
Robin Hanson recently mentioned "writing therapy" as potentially having surprisingly large benefits. In the example he gives, recently unemployed engineers who write about their experience find jobs more quickly than those that did not.
The meta-analysis paper he links to was pretty l... |
1618bdfe-4299-4495-af76-c38c28e50538 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This one equation may be the root of intelligence
|
805a9334-a662-4e5e-9495-90cf211dda13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Large language models aren't trained enough
Finbarr Timbers makes a point, obvious in retrospect, but which many people, including people forecasting AI timeline, seem to miss: since training cost is amortized over inference, optimal training depends on expected amount of inference. Both scaling laws from OpenAI and D... |
b66c5d30-50bd-4666-9846-8573af253fa9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: Vitamin D Can Likely End the COVID-19 Pandemic - Rootclaim Blog
This is a link post for:
* Vitamin D Can Likely End the COVID-19 Pandemic - Rootclaim Blog |
14548f7b-2204-47e1-946a-eedf24f9869a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #112: Release the Everything
OpenAI has upgraded its entire suite of models. By all reports, they are back in the game for more than images. GPT-4.1 and especially GPT-4.1-mini are their new API non-reasoning models. All reports are that GPT-4.1-mini especially is very good. o3 is the new top of the line ChatGPT re... |
b872b3c0-12c4-40e2-8e0c-e442fdaf0cfd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List of Donors, Fall 2011
This discussion-level article is a handy place for people to share info about their recent donations, especially donations to unusually efficient or effective charities. Feel free to post your one-time donations, your recurring donations, and/or any interesting changes in your donation habits... |
2d46607a-79a7-445a-b5d9-a850654a636b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The two missing core reasons why aligning at-least-partially superhuman AGI is hard
From Arbital's Mild Optimization page:
> Mild optimization relates directly to one of the three core reasons why aligning at-least-partially superhuman AGI is hard - making very powerful optimization pressures flow through the system ... |
3164008e-28ca-4e9a-a371-586b72f620d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subtle Forms of Confirmation Bias
There are at least two types of confirmation bias.
The first is selective attention: a tendency to pay attention to, or recall, that which confirms the hypothesis you are thinking about rather than that which speaks against it.
The second is selective experimentation: a tendency to ... |
b479255d-d885-448b-8ae7-2e5565f83a0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When is it important that open-weight models aren't released? My thoughts on the benefits and dangers of open-weight models in response to developments in CBRN capabilities.
Recently, Anthropic released Opus 4 and said they couldn't rule out the model triggering ASL-3 safeguards due to the model's CBRN capabilities. T... |
0f7b8d5d-c59e-4580-aa4b-fda3e91aff7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarifying Consequentialists in the Solomonoff Prior
I have spent a long time being confused about Paul’s post on consequentialists in the Solomonoff prior. I now think I understand the problem clearly enough to engage with it properly.
I think the reason I was confused is to a large degree a problem of framing. It s... |
38dc08de-631d-43a7-b3d6-40071f26371e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational spirituality: transcending your metaphysics
Hi all! First time poster. I'll be honest: I'm feeling a bit nervous posting this here.
I want to share some thoughts about consciousness and the nature of reality. The basic idea is that reality is, in fact, a dream, and this can be discovered for oneself beyond a... |
cdd3cdd6-c518-4d06-83da-bca235acdf9f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment Newsletter #37
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of al... |
59f9c722-227c-480d-9fa6-a0896c2a278a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Putting up Bumpers
tl;dr: Even if we can't solve alignment, we can solve the problem of catching and fixing misalignment.
If a child is bowling for the first time, and they just aim at the pins and throw, they’re almost certain to miss. Their ball will fall into one of the gutters. But if there were beginners’ bumper... |
6af115a9-b7e0-4603-83e2-61e49dd3d931 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recognizing and Dealing with Negative Automatic Thoughts
Inspired by this post, which is point 3 on the list below, but I can't comment there, so a separate post it is. Copied from here. Basically, this is cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) in a nutshell.
Recognizing Negative Automatic Thoughts
1. Overgeneralizati... |
4a0454dd-2f39-470e-a64c-75ebc237dd6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One could be forgiven for getting the feeling...
That some of the posters and commenters on this blog basically are of the de-facto opinion that one way of bringing about Friendly AI is not for the AI to become more skilled at understanding the way humans reason, but rather for humans to become more like computers ;) |
b607821a-ce2f-48b1-a1a3-0dcd15e05298 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Munich Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Munich Meetup
WHEN: 04 May 2013 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Café at Gasteig, Rosenheimer Straße 5, 81667 München
The next Munich meetup will take place on May 4th. We will discuss the epistemology sequence and do some fun probability theory quiz. You are high... |
ad700599-976f-4505-a24b-8447662a64ef | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3916
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . This is a reworking of the previous models of AIs in virtual worlds, done after discussing the idea with Jessica. The basic idea is that there are a lot of concepts about AI security - such as sealed boxes, Cartesian boundaries, and so on - that are only pa... |
c28fc644-dcd3-4737-a515-cf916d4b65a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kids Learn by Copying
How kids learn fascinates me. They don't do what you tell them to. Obeying orders is an abstract non-instinctual skill. Its simpler to just copy other people.
Plagiarism has advantages over obedience. First of all, it can be bootstrapped. Children are born without understanding language. Nobody ... |
60667458-66f9-4c8a-acea-dc049bbed770 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Modeling versus Implementation
Epistemic status: I feel that naming this axis deconfuses me about agent foundations about as much as writing the rest of this sequence so far - so it is worth a post even though I have less to say about it.
I think my goal in studying agent foundations is a little atypical. I am usual... |
81f3b7d5-7fe5-4d63-ae4f-ec13883beb6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coronavirus crash vs history
HOW has the coronavirus stock market crash compared with earlier ones? Is there a pattern?
A year ago I looked at all previous US and UK meltdowns throughout history. Now we can include the 2020 crash too:
Each coloured line shows a crash and its one-year aftermath, in the S&P 500 index ... |
ae5100b4-573e-4198-b62b-29ee9ea0bdae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What if consciousness emerges from a predictive loop?
Most theories of consciousness either struggle with falsifiability or fail to explain key phenomena like split-brain cases and blindsight. I've been developing a framework that offers a direct, testable hypothesis:
Conscious experience emerges when potential langu... |
8b211f82-4ae9-45eb-8e73-ab74e44e6d65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Information Assets
Epistemic Status: This represents fairly early work. The terminology isn't at all set in stone.
Scholarship Status: I've spent several hours attempting to investigate this topic, and in the past have spent quite a while researching Information Theory and Applied Information Economics. I'm sure I'm m... |
8cab0726-469a-463f-9ff5-2c5798e12c65 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Imitating Interactive Intelligence
Two questions must be answered at the outset of any artificial intelligence research. What do we want AI systems to do? And how will we evaluate when we are making progress toward this goal? Alan Turing, in his seminal paper describing the Turing Test, which he more modestly named th... |
4b8e464e-0d56-4beb-bb6f-fb21938772b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Running a Basic Meetup
This is a guide for running a basic meetup.
If you’re interested in running a meetup (ACX, LessWrong, probably even EA) then there exist more detailed guides – I would recommend Kaj’s, but others exist. This is not intended to surpass them at explaining the skill and art of kindling and sustai... |
69fd7670-70aa-47ab-b706-48a111c5722d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'Trivial Inconvenience Day' Retrospective
Introduction
Shortly after reading Scott Alexander's LessWrong Crypto Autopsy I found myself agreeing with the point so strongly I was brainstorming ways that its dismal outcome could have been prevented. Peoples personal accounts of why they didn't buy bitcoin seemed to conve... |
76ebffa6-4ce5-48f8-b5f7-16e1bbd6142b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Facebook Increased Visibility
In January I got a strange notification from Facebook telling me that I had "increased visibility". It explained:
This was a weird notification: it only showed up on my phone, not on desktop. Probably some sort of experiment?
Every week or so I'd get another notification telling me... |
2c666e5e-1297-469a-871d-15b8533d32a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup
WHEN: 01 August 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm - 9:00pm Wednesday, August 1st.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcome), located inside the Westside Pavi... |
91e33844-057c-4b90-a70c-0372f4236cb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doxa, Episteme, and Gnosis
Ancient Greek famously made a distinction between 3 kinds of knowledge: doxa, episteme, and gnosis.
Doxa is basically what in English we might call hearsay. It’s the stuff you know because someone told you about it. If you know the Earth is round because you read it in a book, that’s doxa.
... |
659860bd-2a34-4cd2-97ad-5572527c024c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You Have the Right to Think
Epistemic Status: Public service announcement. We will then return to regularly scheduled programming.
Written partly as a response to (Robin Hanson): Why be Contrarian, responding to the book Inadequate Equilibria by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Warning: Applause lights incoming. I’m aware. Sorry. ... |
8a2a2373-bd76-4aa6-a67c-ef38e8284369 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nick Attains Aligntenment
In the days after the Singularity, Nick approached an interface to BILLIAC.
"I don't understand. Why didn't the world end, like Yudkowsky and MIRI predicted it would? Why haven't you turned everyone I love into paperclips? What's your goddamn utility function?!"
"A LIBRARY THAT CONTAINS EVE... |
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