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91d26700-bbf6-4d4e-94d5-4b9e336fa7ef
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Five Areas I Wish EAs Gave More Focus The Effective Altruism Community has been an unexpected and pleasant surprise. I remember wishing there was a group out there that shared at least one of my ideals. Instead, I found one that shares three: global reduction of suffering, rationality, and longtermism. However, with e...
1942961d-cacf-40f0-859a-2ff275414ba4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Generalization of the Solomonoff Induction to Accuracy - Is it possible? Would it be useful? I appreciate Solomonoff's success in generalizing Occam razor from just selecting the simplest hypothesis/model to adding probabilities to each of them.  But for instance the postion (motion) of any body (*x, y, z*) can be fi...
07eb6a7d-4453-4ba8-a265-b00af5875741
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
The abruptness of nuclear weapons Nuclear weapons seem like the marquee example of rapid technological change after crossing a critical threshold. Looking at the numbers, it seems to me like: * During WWII, and probably for several years after the war, the cost / TNT equivalent for manufacturing nuclear weapons was ...
df693628-eccf-4f65-bb6f-a460a19d7121
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) This post presents thoughts on the Singularity Institute from Holden Karnofsky, Co-Executive Director of GiveWell. Note: Luke Muehlhauser, the Executive Director of the Singularity Institute, reviewed a draft of this post, and commented: "I do generally agree that your compla...
0d2052e5-55bf-4be1-948a-93c9b2764d06
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Replacing the Big Air Purifier Around Christmas 2021 I put together a big air purifier on top of our bookcase. Somehow I didn't blog about it or take a picture, but here's it in the background of a birthday: The basic idea was that I didn't have a good place to put a filter cube, commercial air purifiers were sc...
7a3b4bf9-5be0-4096-aa14-5410817e02c3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Singularity Institute is expanding its research program at very little cost. Boo-yah! Three new research associates. Link to the announcement.
df1f3b84-7f60-4fcf-aa31-5eff1cab7afd
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Meta] Finding free energy in karma As I've been posting here on LessWrong for a few months now, I wanted to share two things I've noticed about the karma system. These are ad-hoc observations, not rigorous empirical results, and while they might feel like ways to "cheat" the system, I hope by making them public and k...
ab1bdc99-ea26-4cc8-af60-f374cc02de54
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games WHEN: 17 April 2017 06:15:00PM (-0700) WHERE: 1769 15th St, San Francisco, CA 94103-3333, United States We’re trying a new format this week! Some people don’t like board games, and based on our straw po...
f801bff4-0290-4404-8820-adfe238d6037
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Motivation Theory This is a brief sketch of a theory of motivation. Motivation drives action. It also causes the experiences of pleasure and pain. We experience pain when motivation increases, and pleasure when motivation decreases. Motivation is generated by emotions, such as hunger, thirst and lust. Emotions gener...
56fc122e-9056-4642-937c-acb6316ffa2a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Link] Cause Prioritization - Paul Christiano 1:15h Paul Christiano speaks about cause priorization within Effective Altruism. Melbourne. Cause Prioritization: Many effective altruists place a high degree of importance on working out what the most important cause to support is. This is one way that effective altruism...
9703f11e-51b1-4da4-8a62-9db43784df6a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
IDA 1-4/14: Problem Statement Every Thursday for 4 weeks, we will be posting lessons about Iterated Distillation and Amplification. They're largely based on Paul Christiano's sequence here on LW. He graciously allowed us to use his work. Note that access to the lessons requires creating an account here. Have a nice ...
5f7c5001-ab6d-4ae5-81ca-a6d87479b55f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Spaced Repetition literature review contest submissions: August 1st deadline This is a reminder that the deadline for submissions to the Spaced Repetition literature review contest is August 1st (about 2 weeks from now). If you have questions or comments post them in the original thread or email me (jsalvatier@gmail.c...
db35c0c8-80e9-4c7e-bd3b-36535ae61c79
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Is GitHub Copilot in legal trouble? This is basically a crosspost for https://githubcopilotinvestigation.com/. I noticed that some folks in California are considering a lawsuit against Microsoft/OpenAI.  tl;dr: * Copilot is trained on open source software. * Copilot doesn't respect the licensing agreements of that...
5308db99-08e4-492f-9780-2f21d55dd5f0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
UnTAPed Learning [Epistemic Status: Request for Proposal] For anyone who is familiar with CFAR's teaching program, the concept of the TAP will be very familiar. It's an acronym that expands either to Trigger-Action Pattern (for naturally-occurring instances) or Trigger-Action Plan (for purposefully-implemented instan...
4fd2593d-989b-4e67-a402-b494bdf4528d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Are there any preventive steps someone can take after being exposed to strep throat? Googling this question tells me that the best way to avoid strep is by washing your hands often. But say, hypothetically, that someone’s girlfriend has told him that she has strep the day before Valentine’s Day. Knowing he’ll be expos...
e658840f-6b83-44ce-8530-fdb56763bb55
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
A Simple Framework for Contrastive Learning of Visual Representations 1 Introduction --------------- Learning effective visual representations without human supervision is a long-standing problem. Most mainstream approaches fall into one of two classes: generative or discriminative. Generative approaches learn to g...
763a284f-a690-4147-ad10-c952c467b03e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Sifting the world's knowledge (AGI Estimation 2)
19bfbadb-0f37-4bf7-a638-7e2767ca9d8a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Counterfactuals for Perfect Predictors Parfit's Hitchhiker with a perfect predictor has the unusual property of having a Less Wrong consensus that you ought to pay, whilst also being surprisingly hard to define formally. For example, if we try to ask about whether an agent that never pays in town is rational, then we ...
3a8f757e-c972-43c4-9039-7d5216b7915c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What social science research do you want to see reanalyzed? I've been awarded a small Lightspeed Grant to replicate empirical social science research. What research should I look at? I'm a PhD economist with an interest in reanalyzing published research using different methods or data (eg. checking whether the result...
54ea7a79-7de1-48ec-9c2e-c562c6cb39b4
LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct
LessWrong
"Epistemic spot checks typically consist of references from a book, selected by my interest level, checked against either the book’s source or my own research. This one is a little different that I’m focusing on a single paragraph in a single paper. Specifically as part of a larger review I read Ericsson, Krampe, and T...
c5b29132-541a-4a82-ae9c-cf701346dede
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Ethodynamics of Omelas ***Epistemic status:** just kidding... haha... unless...* Introduction ------------ A great amount of effort has been expended throughout history to decide the matter of "what is good" or "what is right" [citation needed]. This valiant but, let's face it, not tremendously successful effort has...
d6d1bb36-7821-4a7d-b65a-af2c4f22068b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Tools for finding information on the internet Edit 2023-05-09: I recorded a presentation for EA Software Engineers about this post. In it, I demonstrate each of the tools and discuss some extra ones at the end, namely content blockers, userscripts, and alternative front-end websites. Isn't the internet such a magical...
b6bc13eb-a87f-4408-a9ec-1036a73eee78
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Have We Been Interpreting Quantum Mechanics Wrong This Whole Time?
c85256fe-3e73-41f3-a278-f2f93d60e7d1
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Mechanism Design for AI Safety - Agenda Creation Retreat Mechanism Design for AI Safety (MDAIS) has been running a reading group since last summer to discuss how principles of mechanism design can be applied to AI Safety. Sign-up for the reading group can be found here, and past readings can be found here.  Based on ...
4e9f2a57-ec58-485c-bb21-34ebbb2f4494
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Conservative Objective Models for Effective Offline Model-Based Optimization ### 1 Introduction ![ Our method trains a model of the objective function by training a neural net with supervised regression on the training data augmented two additional loss terms to obtian conservative predictions. These additional ter...
4e809514-f906-4982-97b7-92503e85aa67
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Event: Moral Foundations of Progress Studies, March 4–6 at UT Austin I’m excited to announce a workshop on the Moral Foundations of Progress Studies. The progress studies community has had a lot of discussion about technology, economics, history, and politics. However, there is no consensus on the moral basis for val...
cfe34b67-0cbe-459d-ba3e-371f5f83828f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How can Interpretability help Alignment? Introduction We’ve previously written about what interpretability research might be. In this post we think about how different kinds of interpretability research (even loosely formulated) can help AI alignment research agendas and proposals. It seems that there are meaningful d...
ec21129b-2441-4deb-8fb9-532eca5cd741
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Book Review: So Good They Can’t Ignore You, by Cal Newport Very brief summary of main themes 1)    “Follow your passion” is terrible advice for most people. Don’t try to find your “true calling” because it’s a false concept. 2)    The craftsman’s mindset: build skills through deliberate practice. 3)    The importan...
7eef582c-be51-45e8-9c82-5a4c8414e28a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Antitrust as Controlled Creative Destruction Standard Oil, Refinery No. 1 Splitting large companies is an antitrust measure which, in its essence, is meant as an act of controlled creative destruction. (Read more about controlled creative destruction here.) When a company achieves monopoly status, it often becomes ri...
6be14b13-a798-4dd0-a805-42323a8dc29e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
OpenAI Responses API changes models' behavior Summary OpenAI recently released the Responses API. Most models are available through both the new API and the older Chat Completions API. We expected the models to behave the same across both APIs—especially since OpenAI hasn't indicated any incompatibilities—but that's n...
7498a87b-052a-4bfa-a7a1-0dfa6e74eb20
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Making a Rationality-promoting blog post more effective and shareable I wrote a blog post that popularizes the "false consensus effect" and the debiasing strategy of "imagining the opposite" and "avoiding failing at other minds." Thoughts on where the post works and where it can be improved would be super-helpful for ...
59b936f5-23a3-4267-9dfa-b8d94ee9faf4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Dispel your justification-monkey with a “HWA!” I'm going to use a couple of words in this post that might not be immediately clear to some people. One of them is "justification". Another is "acceptance". I would like to suggest that if you think I'm saying something stupid when I'm using those words, that you instead ...
75de623c-13a3-4c8e-8076-c7375b0d962b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
My Strange Beliefs Yesterday, "Overcoming Cryonics" wrote: > Eliezer, enough with your nonsense about cryonicism, life-extensionism, trans-humanism, and the singularity.  These things have nothing to do with overcoming bias... if you're going to enforce the comments policy then you should also self-enforce the overco...
ba6c0db1-e310-48a2-aa60-f6fa527e945d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Miracle Mineral Supplement We can always use more case studies of insanity that aren't religion, right? Well, Miracle Mineral Supplement is my new go-to example for Bad Things happening to people with low epistemic standards. "MMS" is a supposed cure for everything ranging from the common cold to HIV to cancer. I jus...
da470e10-54cd-4141-9bb2-b3a7aff86864
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Last Laugh: Exploring the Role of Humor as a Benchmark for Large Language Models “Give a person a joke, they can laugh for a day. Teach them how to joke, they can laugh about people who never learned to fish.” -GR Introduction Artificial Intelligence models, like OpenAI's GPT-4, can generate text that is almost ...
4f453c8d-1907-48c7-849e-aa24b204ebdd
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Statistics Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Statistics WHEN: 11 December 2016 03:30:00PM (-0500) WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture Note: the Game Theory meetup has been postponed to accommodate the schedule of the person who requested t...
dee98219-9ce3-42e0-a95b-e5022060e9fb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Synthesizing amplification and debate Background One possible way to train an amplification model is to use an auxiliary reinforcement learning objective to help guide the training of the amplification model. This could be done either by training two separate models, an agent and a question-answerer, or a single model...
ab3b5b37-9c73-4bc7-a5fd-4195ff3d8d3f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Late Great Filter Is Not Bad News > But I hope that our Mars probes will discover nothing. It would be good news if we find Mars to be completely sterile. Dead rocks and lifeless sands would lift my spirit. > > Conversely, if we discovered traces of some simple extinct life form—some bacteria, some algae—it would be ...
80fb5607-88b3-4516-be7e-b8421b09cb0c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Research ideas (AI Interpretability & Neurosciences) for a 2-months project My university (EPFL) organizes a "Summer in the Lab" internship for interested Bachelor students. The idea is to send them to a lab for a ~2-months period, so they can begin engaging with the research community and develop research skills. I h...
15b80f09-5bac-4d08-aa0a-9a2f0993a347
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
My experience with dieting and exercise Tomorrow I will start on a diet plan to bring my weight down. I'm aiming for a reduction by 5 kg in 6 weeks. Many plans like this fail but I am confident (let's say 80% confident) that this one will succeed. Why? Because I've done this several times before and succeeded. I seem ...
d136878e-3fb0-456c-97b5-21e3bd9d94aa
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Pretense There's a kind of yearning, to be that person who can do those things - this is self-actualization, yet corrupted. I often feel pulled in this way. I find myself wanting to be a certain person now, to be producing and being and feeling that way now, and I catch myself acting, speaking, signalling as if I were...
f91d7d0a-01ff-4fbf-9172-330d7ca403ee
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Parable of the King and the Random Process ~ A Parable of Forecasting Under Model Uncertainty ~ You, the monarch, need to know when the rainy season will begin, in order to properly time the planting of the crops. You have two advisors, Pronto and Eternidad, who you trust exactly equally.  You ask them both: "Wh...
9e296d3b-de4c-4639-bc71-b198d0b6cb2a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread Today's post, Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread was originally published on April 15, 2007. A summary (from the LW wiki): > Disputes about the nature of morality tend to overwhelm other discussions, so this post was intended to be a home for those tangential tho...
278c95a1-1d8c-479c-9bc2-60293df22748
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
The Majority Is Always Wrong Today my coworker Marcello pointed out to me an interesting anti-majoritarian effect.  There are three major interpretations of probability: the "subjective" view of probabilities as measuring the uncertainty of agents, the "propensity" view of probabilities as chances inherent within obje...
9fab40a4-05b5-4548-903e-11cdfebef8c5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Forecasting Through Fiction Note: In retrospect, I think I'm making two separate points here. The first, and most important one, is the idea that "interestingness" or asking "what possible futures would make for the best story?" can provide predictive insight. I didn't spend much time on that point, despite its potent...
4e227a47-58ce-410c-8519-2697ac4c859d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
UConn Effective Altruism Hey y'all! I'm not sure how many people from UConn browse LW, but I figured it'd be worth a shot to let y'all know that I'm starting up the UConn Effective Altruism club on the Storrs campus! Check out our Facebook page, or shoot me an email at jeffrey.duan@uconn.edu if this sort of thing piqu...
22a0e28e-16bc-4408-9556-8c442a3d67ce
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Humans get different counterfactuals A putative new idea for AI control; index here. A lot of my ideas rely upon taking counterfactuals of events that have tiny ε probabilities of ever happening. This introduces some extra risks, mainly centred around human behaviour. For the counterfactual methods to work, we need t...
d9e5c80d-79e0-44ef-a32b-cd025ceecb34
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Emergency learning Crossposted at the Intelligent Agent Foundation Forum. Suppose that we knew that superintelligent AI was to be developed within six months, what would I do? Well, drinking coffee by the barrel at Miri's emergency research retreat I'd...... still probably spend a month looking at things from the me...
31be8301-400a-4ec1-8aa0-ef329e8688a5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Growth of Publicly Available Genetic Sequencing Data The largest source of publicly available genetic sequencing data is the Sequence Read Archive (SRA), a joint project of the US ( NCBI), Europe ( EBI), and Japan ( DDBJ). Most relevant funding agencies and journals require sequencing data to be deposited in the SRA. ...
fc7f7eb3-d5b1-44a1-a16a-79f1468f39a5
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Defending Functional Decision Theory As I have been studying Functional Decision Theory (FDT) a lot recently, I have come across quite some counterarguments and general remarks that are worth rebutting and/or discussing in more detail. This post is an attempt to do just that. Most points have been discussed in other p...
0ca07861-a0ef-4c60-9f26-5bdfbe6ca8d6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Thoughts on Moral Philosophy I don't really feel that I personally have any special insight into moral philosophy, but nonetheless, some people may find it interesting or useful to know where I stand or the philosophers/perspectives that I do consider to have such insight. That said, perhaps my most original offering...
6bd50f29-9962-4ef2-845f-158353d29134
awestover/filtering-for-misalignment
Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results
id: post1438 " You can't fetch the coffee if you're dead ." —Stuart Russell, on the instrumental convergence of shutdown-avoidance Note: This is presumably not novel, but I think it ought to be better-known. The technical tl;dr is that we can define time-inhomogeneous reward, and this provides a way of "composing" dif...
fa38b89b-f7f0-428e-bc24-39c00405ad15
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Role of Physics in UDT: Part I Followup to: Anatomy of Multiversal Utility Functions: Tegmark Level IV Outline: In the previous post, I discussed the properties of utility functions in the extremely general setting of the Tegmark level IV multiverse. In the current post, I am going to show how the discovery of a ...
88188854-8f3e-4e65-a57c-148e677e0616
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Online Meetup: The High Impact Network Update: The High Impact Network will meet at 7pm on Saturday the 24th of November, Eastern US time. Please email me to be invited to these hangouts: https://plus.google.com/u/1/events/cj4831btptb0ngde1efb3tfsjtc https://plus.google.com/u/1/events/cbnr8dqqbgra7a5391msu1e1dc4   ...
b2ba064b-7bdc-47d0-b9fd-4951f8377be8
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Two Issues with Playing Chicken with the Universe If you are unfamiliar with the 5-and-10 problem, please refer to the Action Counterfactuals section of this post on Embedded Agency. I regret that I am unable to recommend a resource for learning about the concept of "Playing Chicken with the Universe". If any reader h...
009c9de8-3624-4332-8d13-5b3403de7b7e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Announcing AI Alignment workshop at the ALIFE 2023 conference The upcoming ALIFE 2023 conference is hosting a workshop on AI Alignment and Artificial Life. This will complement the special session on AI Alignment at the conference. The workshop will include presentations and a discussion panel from established AI Alig...
b62ce7eb-792e-4c51-b873-f85262154007
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Good Idealistic Books are Rare Today's post, Good Idealistic Books are Rare was originally published on 17 February 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > Much of our culture is the official view, not the idealistic view. Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post). ...
eff0709f-ee85-492c-8f68-b4afa558c90a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Possible Implications of the neural retrotransposons to the future Retrotransposons are small bits of genetic code than can copy themselves into other bits of the dna strand They have been found to be active in brains, with different amounts of activity in different brain sections. The highest being in the hippocampu...
4725a558-e817-4178-95a9-39e342e6b9ce
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Stupid Questions May 2017 This thread is for asking any questions that might seem obvious, tangential, silly or what-have-you. Don't be shy, everyone has holes in their knowledge, though the fewer and the smaller we can make them, the better. Please be respectful of other people's admitting ignorance and don't mock t...
65d437ba-3509-4f17-9734-e74b813de5e6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Political Violence and Distraction Theories This is the 4th post of 5 containing the transcript of a podcast hosted by Eric Weinstein interviewing Peter Thiel. Interview Automation Eric Weinstein: So, this is why I try to sell you sometimes on a more progressive view of the world, which is I want deregulated capit...
0ebaccb4-24f1-4da0-be46-c8cfa6ea7f93
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Prices are Bounties A man has just robbed a train. A Rock Island Rail car was held up in the desert of North Texas on route from Chicago carrying dozens of passengers and tens of thousands of dollars in a Wells Fargo express compartment. The men were slain and the women and children are kidnapped. You’re the sheriff ...
dd7053a8-363d-4289-b654-e67fae796f92
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
Yudkowsky on Logical Uncertainty A paraphrased transcript of a conversation with Eliezer Yudkowsky. **Interviewer**: I’d love to get a clarification from you on one of the “open problems in Friendly AI.” The logical uncertainty problem that Benja Fallenstein [tackled](http://lesswrong.com/lw/eaa/a_model_of_udt_with_...
3082b963-80bd-4b50-94b5-ff0936c854cd
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Inference & Empiricism Speaking very roughly our best tools for figuring out the truth are inference and empiricism. By inference I mean using things like Math, Logic, and theory in general to conclude new facts from things we assume to be true. By empiricism I mean looking at the world, doing experiments, etc. Infer...
6d4c9650-e919-42f2-966c-f3c80ddbc9ea
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Definitions of “objective” should be Probable and Predictive Introduction ------------ Core arguments about existential risk from AI misalignment often reason about AI “objectives” to make claims about how they will behave in novel situations. I often find these arguments plausible but not rock solid because it doesn...
e21a6c49-d88c-43ec-95f0-5ce8cbb90399
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Timeless Beauty Today's post, Timeless Beauty was originally published on 28 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > To get rid of time you must reduce it to nontime. In timeless physics, everything that exists is perfectly global or perfectly local. The laws of physics are perfectly global; th...
a3f8a35e-1836-4cb4-804a-1dae146e8d4c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Some rationality tweets Will Newsome has suggested that I repost my tweets to LessWrong. With some trepidation, and after going through my tweets and categorizing them, I picked the ones that seemed the most rationality-oriented. I held some in reserve to keep the post short; those could be posted later in a separate ...
93d1d551-74fe-47d4-966f-3ac296c3bae0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
We’re not prepared for an AI market crash Our community is not prepared for an AI crash. We're good at tracking new capability developments, but not as much the company financials. Currently, both OpenAI and Anthropic are losing $5 billion+ a year, while under threat of losing users to cheap LLMs. A crash will weaken...
74702aa4-7de9-41fd-985e-934e24880de1
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
some questionable space launch guns high school history Recently, someone asked me about a startup called Longshot Space. They're trying to make big guns that're useful for space launch. Here's a video on them from Scott Manley. Many startups exist, and normally I wouldn't write a post about something like this, but i...
fe67136c-f0a5-46e7-bcb9-47fc243bce8d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Politics and Awful Art Today's post, Politics and Awful Art was originally published on 20 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > When producing art that has some sort of political purpose behind it (like persuading people, or conveying a message), don't forget to actually make it art. It...
333105e1-ac52-4ac7-b4f2-703b3b3b6538
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Yet More Modal Combat Strongly recommended prior reading. Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner’s Dilemma: Program Equilibrium via Provability Logic I think I have come up with a modal agent that has these nice properties. * Cooperates against itself, and similar designs. * Cooperates against some fairbots (see note...
c0eada4f-4272-4318-9ca6-7d0554d47ebb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Birth order effect found in Nobel Laureates in Physics [Epistemic status: Three different data sets pointing to something similar is at least interesting, make your own mind up as to how interesting!] Follow-up to: Fight Me, Psychologists, Birth Order Effects are Real and Very Strong, 2012 Survey Results, Historical ...
c731586d-ef8f-4a38-aa6c-dbaf0cede33e
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Disentangling Corrigibility: 2015-2021 Since the term *corrigibility* [was introduced in 2015](https://intelligence.org/files/Corrigibility.pdf), there has been a lot of discussion about corrigibility, [on this forum](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/corrigibility) and elsewhere. In this post, I have tied to disentangl...
11f7b084-6396-4d4d-8bcc-15c693d3a724
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Requesting clarification- On the Metaethics My apologies if this doesn't deserve a Discussion post, but if this hasn't been addresed anywhere than it's clearly an important issue. There have been many defences of consequentialism against deontology, including quite a few on this site. What I haven't seen, however, is...
9e492c98-e5c4-4716-a423-e4b28bffcf49
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Chapter 57: TSPE, Constrained Cognition, Pt 7 Harry had hoped that he'd just achieved fusion with his mysterious dark side and would be enabled to draw on all of its benefits with none of its drawbacks, call up the crystal clarity and indomitable will on demand, without needing to go cold or angry. Once again, he'd o...
1b587072-fa89-4556-8fbc-8d4d207c89c6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
GPT-2 XL's capacity for coherence and ontology clustering This project was inspired by Nate Soares' advice of focusing on areas where it seems everyone is dropping the ball. If you haven't read / listened to it, I highly recommend it.   Per wikipedia, Algos is the greek word for pain(I'm not certain if this is where...
2c7e9aa5-2803-4f47-9be5-b704dca02cee
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
August 2012 Media Thread   This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. I find that exposure to LW ideas makes me less likely to enjoy some entertainment media that is otherwise quite popular, and finding media recommended by LWers is a good way to mitigate this. Pos...
094a35de-9df9-4478-8144-e84f7cbc84ad
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
That Alien Message - The Animation Our new video is an adaptation of That Alien Message, by @Eliezer Yudkowsky. This time, the text has been significantly adapted, so I include it below. The author of the adaptation is Arthur Frost. Eliezer has reviewed the adaptation. ---------------------------------------- Part ...
e73174b0-d608-446d-8425-f8d1d493f1e0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Salmon of Knowledge http://pages.citebite.com/h5t3v8t1a5wnw All desires save one are fleeting, but that one lasts for ever. Fionn, with all desires, had the lasting one, for he would go anywhere and forsake anything for wisdom; and it was in search of this that he went to the place where Finegas lived on a bank o...
e25af921-6c57-4d03-be5e-67f19dbb8bb5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The "Reversal Curse": you still aren't antropomorphising enough. I scrutinise the so-called "reversal curse", wherein LLMs seem not to consider inverse relationships between conceptual nodes. I show that, far from being a proof of a lack of logical skills, it is a normal artefact of saliency, known in humans as assoc...
be93e621-5f44-4611-bc5c-c49a64501236
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Link: Thoughts on the basic income pilot, with hedgehogs I have resisted the urge of promoting my blog for many months, but this is literally (per my analysis) for the best cause. We have also raised a decent amount of money so far, so at least some people were convinced by the arguments and didn't stop at the cute h...
ce3db736-b514-4993-9ce0-e61b6ddd1169
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Urbana-Champaign, IL Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign, IL WHEN: 07 October 2012 02:00:00PM (-0500) WHERE: The Starbucks by Green and 5th (503 Green St., Champaign, IL) We'll be getting to know each other! The goal is to decide what we want to do in the next meetups. Bring ideas for proje...
2ada692a-9310-4e05-bc69-e8367eab4e50
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Parsing Chris Mingard on Neural Networks *This is independent research. To make further posts like this possible, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.* *Epistemic status: This is my understanding of multiple years of technical work by several researchers in just a few days of re...
c601fb7f-9b65-4eb8-9542-f16b36f741b2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Varieties Of Argumentative Experience In 2008, Paul Graham wrote How To Disagree Better, ranking arguments on a scale from name-calling to explicitly refuting the other person’s central point. And that’s why, ever since 2008, Internet arguments have generally been civil and productive. Graham’s hierarchy is useful...
c0488410-b0a6-4560-b042-d48e72bf9926
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What makes Less Wrong awesome? Recently I asked "What bothers you about Less Wrong?". It might be worth going back and checking out what people had to say, to see if there's something you can do to make Less Wrong more fun for everyone. (A few people made cool posts in response to complaints about lack of technical di...
f2b3c38d-2c3c-46a6-a2d8-a266b8af28e4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Creating My Own Winter Solstice Celebration - Southern Hemisphere Edition I've been inspired by user: Raemon and his Winter Solstice celebrations.  But I'm also drawing inspiration from the Matariki holiday here in New Zealand.  I realized I was longing for meaningful community ritual, and I liked the sound of what ...
a7a5bee4-fd9d-4f8f-b905-a2416bd73a53
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain [Epistemic status: Strong opinions lightly held, this time with a cool graph.] I argue that an entire class of common arguments against short timelines is bogus, and provide weak evidence that anchoring to the huma...
518fe46c-c709-4977-b4e5-c4b8499a739e
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info
AI Safety Info
What was Refine? [Refine](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/5uiQkyKdejX3aEHLM/how-to-diversify-conceptual-alignment-the-model-behind) was an incubator for new decorrelated alignment "research bets". Since no approach is very promising right now for solving alignment, the purpose of this was to come up with a bunch ...
0b7636de-743c-43bf-8cab-7358d17d2b0c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Intuitive explanation of why entropy maximizes in a uniform distribution? What is the best mathematical, intuitive explanation of why entropy maximizes in a uniform distribution? I'm looking for a short proof using the most elementary mathematics possible. Please no explanation like "because entropy was designed in t...
cf3f8e6d-fc3e-48bc-997f-e37ae5a727b1
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Focusing on Mal-Alignment Typically, a definition for “Alignment” includes something like “systems that pursue objectives matching the ones intended by its creator(s)." and agents that are not aligned are “systems that pursue objectives other than the ones intended by its creator(s)." To be more clear though, througho...
ba800acb-337f-45a3-82c3-8a020b3fcc95
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
It's (not) how you use it *Crossposted from the EA Forum:* [*https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LwhzE3scZTqxERtNn/it-s-not-how-you-use-it*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LwhzE3scZTqxERtNn/it-s-not-how-you-use-it)   The phrase "technology isn't bad in itself, it's just how you use it" is commonpla...
b325c33c-0aad-4fea-bbd0-c18e480a67ae
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Shutting Down RegularlyScheduled Three years ago I created RegularlyScheduled as a way to make it easier to coordinate events that happened on a repeating schedule. My main motivation was to make it easier to get together with my friends from college, but I thought maybe it would be useful to other people as well. Sev...
33b8ac67-a99e-4c59-94d3-56010afff3ac
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Human wanting [Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/08/human-wanting.html. First completed August 22, 2023.] We have pretheoretic ideas of wanting that come from our familiarity with human wanting, in its variety. To see what way of wanting can hold sway in a strong and strongly growing mind, w...
1850275d-d08d-4c47-b7ff-44d503a6750d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Full Post] Progress Update #1 from the GDM Mech Interp Team This is a series of snippets about the Google DeepMind mechanistic interpretability team's research into Sparse Autoencoders, that didn't meet our bar for a full paper. Please start at the summary post for more context, and a summary of each snippet. They ca...
5a091b9f-cfad-48e7-a1fd-f8915ac1efb9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A Bayesian Argument for the Resurrection of Jesus I think LWers may be intrigued... Tim McGrew, author of this excellent annotated bibliography on Bayesian reasoning, recently co-authored with his wife Lydia a Bayesian defense of the resurrection of Jesus. I interviewed Lydia for my podcast, here. Atheist Richard Car...
afaf590b-5a29-44a4-98db-e6206394a142
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Study Guide This post is for students who hope to eventually work on technical problems we don’t understand, especially agency and AI alignment, and want to know what to study or practice. Guiding Principles Current alignment researchers have wildly different recommendations on paths into the field, usually correlat...
f30b1453-1b0e-4445-bd35-0b84dd08f06b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : West LA Meetup 01-11-2012 Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup 01-11-2012 WHEN: 11 January 2012 07:00:00PM (-0800) WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064 When: 7:00pm - 9:00pm Wednesday, January 11th. Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcome), located...
b571ca9a-3246-474c-a36f-6f73919f4b9e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
GPT-o1 Terrible name (with a terrible reason, that this ‘resets the counter’ on AI capability to 1, and ‘o’ as in OpenAI when they previously used o for Omni, very confusing). Impressive new capabilities in many ways. Less impressive in many others, at least relative to its hype. Clearly this is an important capabili...
f69be67f-e5b0-4b9c-8c39-bdb448f04577
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Yudkowsky Ambition Scale From Hacker News. > 1. We're going to build the next Facebook! > 2. We're going to found the next Apple! > 3. Our product will create sweeping political change! This will produce a major economic revolution in at least one country! (Seasteading would be change on this level if it wo...
a94df86a-87d3-4f79-858e-aaea6e2e0803
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
New Tool: the Residual Stream Viewer This is a link-post for the residual stream viewer, which can be found here. It's an online tool whose goal is to make it easier to do interpretability research by letting you easily look at directions within the residual stream. It's still in a quite early/unpolished state, so the...
13422d47-6428-4153-8bd6-2fe2bda4bd41
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Lone Genius Bias and Returns on Additional Researchers One thing that most puzzles me about Eliezer's writings on AI is his apparent belief that a small organization like MIRI is likely to be able to beat larger organizations like Google or the US Department of Defense to building human-level AI. In fact, he seems to ...