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e913da52-840e-4dc2-959d-0e446b0561d7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Survey of NLP Researchers: NLP is contributing to AGI progress; major catastrophe plausible
I was part of a group that ran a [PhilPapers-style](https://philpapers.org/surveys/) survey and metasurvey targeting NLP researchers who publish at venues like ACL. Results are [here](https://nlpsurvey.net/) ([Tweet-thread vers... |
5d79a347-4b16-4f42-8981-971d9f5853ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple counterexample to deBlanc 2007?
Peter de Blanc submitted a paper to arXiv.org in 2007 called "Convergence of Expected Utilities with Algorithmic Probability Distributions." It claims to show that a computable utility function can have an expected value only if the utility function is bounded.
This is import... |
645aa943-c1a6-4dfc-a9fa-58464af194f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Online Meetups (Megameetup Telepresence Results)
Yesterday the East Coast Megameetup experimented with a Google Hangout that gave non-locals a chance to interact. Results were mixed. The hangout got off to a late start due to technical difficulties and insufficient redundant planning.
Comments from the original disc... |
07c22b4c-c1a9-4018-a38a-9d2d281b7bf7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Human-centred mechanism design with Democratic AI
**In our recent** [**paper**](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01383-x)**, published in Nature Human Behaviour, we provide a proof-of-concept demonstration that deep reinforcement learning (RL) can be used to find economic policies that people will vote for b... |
470b9d92-3c2c-4b71-bd51-729ada605422 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Underconstrained Abstractions
Followup to: The Weak Inside View
Saith Robin:
> "It is easy, way too easy, to generate new mechanisms, accounts, theories, and abstractions. To see if such things are useful, we need to vet them, and that is easiest "nearby", where we know a lot. When we want to deal with or underst... |
ddb83f17-0acc-497d-8e07-ac1b631524a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | ChatGPT can write code! ?
Could an artificial general intelligence (AGI) craft computer code and open up possibilities never seen before in the tech world?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A few months back, I was wrestli... |
f13ee94f-af0d-4f26-9d06-99cd8816f13f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Odds
summary(Technical): Odds express relative chances. If the odds for X versus Y are 2 : 3, this expresses that we think that X is 2/3 = 0.666... times as likely as Y. Clearly, odds of 6 : 9 express the same idea; odds are invariant up to multiplication by a positive factor. When an odds ratio [exhausts all the p... |
77cba2e3-fbd6-4139-b964-9c4cf1b65492 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covert Malicious Finetuning
This post discusses our recent paper Covert Malicious Finetuning: Challenges in Safeguarding LLM Adaptation and comments on its implications for AI safety.
What is Covert Malicious Finetuning?
Covert Malicious Finetuning (CMFT) is a method for jailbreaking language models via fine-tuning ... |
0f67b96e-573a-40fb-a724-62f453525ccb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Romae Industriae
Whatever each culture grows and manufactures cannot fail to be here at all times and in great profusion. Here merchant vessels arrive carrying these many commodities from every region in every season and even at every equinox, so that the city takes on the appearance of a sort of common market for the... |
bf92db33-835a-43d5-a647-ea357fd301b1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Reward-Conditioned Policies
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement learning, particularly when combined with high-capacity function approximators such as deep networks, has the potential to automatically acquire control strategies for complex tasks together with the perception and state estimation machinery n... |
caf9992f-a444-4153-9a8f-0edf9d30372a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Choosing the right amount of choice
The TED talk which I have seen praised most often is Barry Shwartz’s Paradox of Choice. His claim is that the ‘official dogma of all Western industrial societies’ – that more choice is good for us – is wrong. This has apparently been a welcome message for many.
Barry thinks the cos... |
37829d37-bf3d-4bf6-9cb5-f9b539894d36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Story With Zombies
(inspired by Zombies: Seriously, Enough, Zombies Are So Overdone, and Scifi/Fantasy Stories Editors Are Tired Of Seeing: Zombies)
He walked into my office and threw the manuscript on my desk with a thud.
“It’s called Thankful For Zombies. A zombie story where…”
“Nope,” I said.
His face deflate... |
a5349595-4196-4622-892b-40c61af8ec8a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A Brief Summary Of The Most Important Century
Here I summarized each of the 11 Parts of the blog series the ["most important century"](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) by [Holden Karnofsky](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/holdenkarnofsky) in very short paragraphs. Simultaneously, I often ... |
4b34f6ad-591d-4bf2-a045-cab1d04f422b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Image Synthesis with a Single (Robust) Classifier
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep learning has revolutionized the way we tackle computer vision problems.
This revolution started with progress on image
classification [krizhevsky2012imagenet, he2015delving, he2016deep],
which then triggered the expansion of the d... |
f7df6fc1-32a5-4d8f-9a0f-ca87bbd3f5c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : SF Meetup: Fun and Games
Discussion article for the meetup : SF Meetup: Fun and Games
WHEN: 01 August 2016 06:15:18PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St, SF
We’ll be meeting to play board (and other) games!
I will bring Set, and standard playing cards; there is a small stock of other board games at the meetup ... |
e2f96ef8-c30d-491c-9ed1-3b31c1a9300b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Grokking the Intentional Stance
Considering how much I’ve been using “the intentional stance" in my thinking about the nature of agency and goals and discussions of the matter recently, I figured it would be a good idea to, y’know, actually read what Dan Dennett originally wrote about it. While doing so, I realized th... |
7ea3b8b9-10f7-458d-b644-87fee0f9f20e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Summaries of top forum posts (17th - 23rd April 2023)
We've just passed the half year mark for this project! If you're reading this (whether you're a regular reader or this is your first post), please consider taking this 5-10 minute survey - all questions optional. If you listen to the podcast, we have a separate sur... |
a09d14c0-9c61-4266-be3a-9a6ebbfc2eb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sets and Functions
Sets and functions are two of the most basic ideas in mathematics, and we'll need to know what they are to discuss some things about categories rigorously. Normally you'd learn about sets and functions way before encountering category theory, but in the spirit of assuming as little math as possible,... |
3659aa42-766c-4d8f-8948-fa16b30cc6f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Update 5/6/2018 – Meta and Moderation
User Facing Changes
* New posts can only be submitted to your personal blog. Moderators will move it to the frontpage if it seems appropriate.
* "Personal Blogposts" tab is now labelled "All Posts", and now contains meta posts.
* We had deliberately been pushing on "disi... |
07130e90-bfa1-4b61-91e3-8c53494ad6d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stop talking about p(doom)
Epistemic status: Complete speculation, somewhat informed by copious arguing about the subject on Twitter.
As AI risk has moved into the mainstream over the past few years, I've come to believe that "p(doom)" is an actively harmful term for X-risk discourse, and people trying to mitigate X-... |
111801c1-4c98-458f-8c01-f5873a725595 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My simple model for Alignment vs Capability
I have a simple model of the alignment vs. capabilities question. I am writing it down because after chewing on Michael Nielson's post about existential risk from AI, I thought it was great but was unsatisfied with with the idea an alignment dilemma. I wasn't the only person... |
52b026a5-6065-4435-8451-a97416e147b1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Selecting the Partial State Abstractions of MDPs:
A Metareasoning Approach with Deep Reinforcement Learning.
Selecting the Partial State Abstractions of MDPs:
A Metareasoning Approach with Deep Reinforcement Learning
Samer B. Nashed1∗, Justin Svegliato2∗, Abhinav Bhatia1, Stuart Russell2, Shlomo Zilberstein1
Abstract ... |
a1b5ef54-cfe5-4979-bbee-d30e4ba16559 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What makes you YOU? For non-deists only.
From the dawn of civilization humans believed in eternal life. The flesh may rot, but the soul will be reborn. To save the soul from the potential adverse living conditions (e.g. hell), the body, being the transient and thus the less important part, was expected to make sacrifi... |
bb8b8543-e3f9-4bf7-a45e-0654ad8289ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Roots of Progress 2023 in review
2023 was another big year for me and The Roots of Progress.
It was a year when ROP as an organization really started to take off. Even though the org itself was formed in 2021, at first it was just a vehicle for my own intellectual work, plus a few side projects. Last year we anno... |
297f4b62-0a5b-496f-a52c-0c7276de9c9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?
Today's post, Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?, was originally published on 26 June 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> People want to think that the Enemy is an innately evil mutant. But, usually, the Enemy is acting as you might in their circumstances. They think t... |
ab491d5a-ea8d-4c50-997d-c5e727c86be5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Social Recession: By the Numbers
Fewer friends, relationships on the decline, delayed adulthood, trust at an all-time low, and many diseases of despair. The prognosis is not great.
By Anton Stjepan Cebalo
Intermission (also known as Intermedio) by Edward Hopper, 1963.
One of the most discussed topics online rece... |
98da39a2-547f-4570-9310-f2197b8fbe8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [ASoT] Observations about ELK
This document outlines some of my current thinking about ELK, in the form of a series of observations I have made that inform my thinking about ELK.
Editor’s note: I’m experimenting with having a lower quality threshold for just posting things even while I’m still confused and unconfide... |
bfc19fb4-f63b-439b-9898-2f35c5b7bb75 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Moving Beyond the Turing Test with the Allen AI Science Challenge
Moving Beyond the Turing Test with the Allen AI Science
Challenge
Carissa Schoenick, Peter Clark, Oyvind Tafjord, Peter Turney, Oren Etzioni
April 2016
Introduction
The field of Artificial Intelligence has made great strides forward recently... |
d33efde9-77a9-48cf-ab4e-f27505567dfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simler and Hanson on Our Hidden Motivations in Everyday Life
None |
5b9cd342-8ca5-4778-b84d-6988530fe47e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 60m Asteroid currently assigned a .022% chance of hitting Earth.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2012da14.html
http://rt.com/news/paint-asteroid-earth-nasa-767/
Seems like a good opportunity to bring up existential risks. And A friendly reminder that NASA is in fact pretty damned important.
Thoughts? |
ed9120bf-7014-4cb0-bf47-3f04f4566499 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Feeling of Idea Scarcity
Here’s a story you may recognize. There's a bright up-and-coming young person - let's call her Alice. Alice has a cool idea. It seems like maybe an important idea, a big idea, an idea which might matter. A new and valuable idea. It’s the first time Alice has come up with a high-potential i... |
42d47bff-69c7-4156-b48a-92943fe0121f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW/OB Rationality Quotes, June 2011
I saw this article and thought "ah, that's what's been missing." There's many a bon mot posted here that's outside the domain of the usual rationality quotes thread. Overcoming Bias seems still to be excluded from those too, even if the two blogs have diverged.
So:
This is a threa... |
f3be043e-e494-42f3-99fa-940ec7ddaf40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The world according to ChatGPT
1.
I linked this in a small comment yesterday, but I think it deserves greater prominence.
It's an article by Sam Kriss, "Born in the wrong generation". It starts from an image that someone tweeted of an idyllic scene of paradise: 1950's small-town America. The tweeter's comment was, "C... |
1817299d-bf44-4adb-8f76-12daf281f575 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Motte and bailey is a technique by which one protects an interesting but hard-to-defend view by making it similar to a less interesting but more defensible position. Whenever the more interesting position - the bailey - is attacked - one retreats to the more defensible one - the motte -, but when the attackers are gon... |
ae8d7947-3812-4e49-a377-7790dad3325c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 4/28/22: Take My Paxlovid, Please
Many have made the observation that if you had told people two years ago that we would have a cure (not a vaccine, but a cure!) for Covid-19 that was free, safe and effective, but that no one wanted to take it, and Congress wasn’t willing to fund further purchases, people would ... |
f53a4540-55b1-4e2f-8bef-3c4b6ec195d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Sense-Making Web
I want to attempt to convey the sense of what it feels like to be in a particular scene. Sadly, blogposts are a poor medium for this, but I think it's important, so I'll try my best. In particular, I'll be focusing on the (vaguely defined) Sensemaking scene. I'm honestly surprised that very little... |
2481226f-a502-4fc7-b1e4-a53dfeb2c637 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Limits of Giving
A friend recently asked what my goal was in giving: was there some amount of donations that would be enough? If someone give me a large enough amount of money, which I then donated, would I be free of further altruistic obligations?
These questions feel to me like they come from a very different pers... |
16813fd2-454f-434a-bf06-35ade7dde5ab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Unifying Model Explainability and Robustness via Machine-Checkable Concepts
1 Introduction
---------------
Explainability has emerged as an important requirement for deep neural networks (DNNs).
Explanations target a number of secondary objectives of model design (in addition to the primary objective of maximizing ... |
8aaada45-4cae-4439-9a7d-f56c39a1ec82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Free Speech and Triskaidekaphobic Calculators: A Reply to Hubinger on the Relevance of Public Online Discussion to Existential Risk
In response to Wei Dai's claim that a multi-post 2009 Less Wrong discussion on gender issues and offensive speech went well, MIRI researcher Evan Hubinger writes—
> Do you think having t... |
525be67a-9c4b-47df-ad9d-1c8e27d6f484 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mandatory Secret Identities
Previously in series: Whining-Based Communities
> "But there is a reason why many of my students have achieved great things; and by that I do not mean high rank in the Bayesian Conspiracy. I expected much of them, and they came to expect much of themselves." —Jeffreyssai
Among the failu... |
713a4fef-90de-4ce5-97de-03fb4c8e29e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Feed the spinoff heuristic!
Follow-up to:
Parapsychology: the control group for science
Some Heuristics for Evaluating the Soundness of the Academic Mainstream in Unfamiliar Fields
Recent renewed discussions of the parapsychology literature and Daryl Bem's recent precognition article brought to mind the "market tes... |
d70fe494-43b0-4baf-a42b-3918535990a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rob B's Shortform Feed
This is a repository for miscellaneous short things I want to post. Other people are welcome to make top-level comments here if they want. (E.g., questions for me you'd rather discuss publicly than via PM; links you think will be interesting to people in this comment section but not to LW as a w... |
2c50c427-85d6-4654-a5d6-c52703532389 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The spam must end
I'm mean most of us would like a friendly bot to chat with, but this is just paperclipping the section (no offence clippy), by now its starting to be a real trivial inconvenience for me and it reduces my desire to check out new topics.
|
fc41e46f-fa0f-4f7d-8fe5-a59ac8e3090f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | a rant on politician-engineer coalitional conflict
Sometimes, a group in some organization has a highly technical and highly effective leader. Kelly Johnson (Skunk Works) and Hyman Rickover (US Navy nuclear propulsion) are famous examples. A naive economist might expect such people to be well-liked by management above... |
f13a21ae-7dd2-4636-b295-1090be6ac602 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Do We Get the $100 Trillion AI Windfall? Sam Altman's Plans, Jobs & the Falling Cost of Intelligence
in the last few days Sam Altman the CEO
of openai has publicly stated how much
money he expects the company to make and
how he intends to distribute it many
people will assume he is bluffing but I
think GT4 sho... |
65ec5255-338b-46e3-a592-e26cebd270fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Least Convenient Possible World
Related to: Is That Your True Rejection?
"If you’re interested in being on the right side of disputes, you will refute your opponents’ arguments. But if you’re interested in producing truth, you will fix your opponents’ arguments for them. To win, you must fight not only the crea... |
0a57208e-4c67-44ed-a0f8-e05bbd39a867 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Needed: A large database of statements for true/false exercises
Does anybody know where to find a large database of statements that are roughly 50% likely to be true or false? These would be used for confidence calibration / Bayesian updating exercises for CMR/HRP.
One way to make such a database would be to buy a b... |
a3f72363-fe12-4d62-8cbe-b28f758ddae2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes October 2014
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not q... |
44e48cbc-8934-4bbb-ba0e-10d6582ceba6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality -- bridging the gap in a post-truth world
Everyone on this site obviously has an interest in being, on a personal level, more rational. That's, without need for argument, a good thing. (Although, if you do want to argue that, I can't stop you...)
But...
As a society, we're clearly not very rational... |
0f82a837-37e5-4bd0-93fd-4992a25bc7fc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Linkpost] Interpretability Dreams
A brief research note by Chris Olah about the point of mechanistic interpretability research. Introduction and table of contents are below.
---
Interpretability Dreams
=======================
*An informal note on the relationship between superposition and distributed represen... |
c520ed48-c35f-420b-8eac-31bbc8924d07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Complexity and Intelligence
Followup to: Building Something Smarter , Say Not "Complexity", That Alien Message
One of the Godel-inspired challenges to the idea of self-improving minds is based on the notion of "complexity".
Now "complexity", as I've previously mentioned, is a dangerous sort of word. "Complexity" c... |
fe921bd6-4fae-4da7-b35f-e60b8af27e5c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Counterarguments to the basic AI x-risk case
*(Crossposted from* [*AI Impacts Blog*](https://aiimpacts.org/counterarguments-to-the-basic-ai-x-risk-case/)*)*
This is going to be a list of holes I see in the basic argument for existential risk from superhuman AI systems[1](https://aiimpacts.org/counterarguments-to-the-... |
b1713cd8-4efd-4653-84fb-3da2f40617b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minerva
Google Research's new AI tackles natural language math problems and handily outperforms the SOTA[1]. It is a pre-trained PaLM [2]finetuned on some maths datasets (which use LaTeX) composed of maths webpages and Arxiv papers (38.5B tokens). The three models trained were as follows.
When generating answers, Min... |
dfb305fd-d6ea-4216-a043-5da3f247a005 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | **In defence of Helen Toner, Adam D'Angelo, and Tasha McCauley**
Anonymous post:
"I understand a common view in EA- or AI-governance land is that Toner, D'Angelo and McCauley (TDM for short) really messed things up at OpenAI, and AI, the fate of the world, etc. has gotten worse thanks to them. I am confident this is ... |
b14ae45b-66d9-41b5-b384-df4f6c969369 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Eleuther releases Llemma: An Open Language Model For Mathematics
> Today we release *Llemma*: 7 billion and 34 billion parameter language models for mathematics. The Llemma models were initialized with Code Llama weights, then trained on the Proof-Pile II, a 55 billion token dataset of mathematical and scientific docu... |
f9ed7a0c-e5c4-40fc-a45d-a7fbfc31ce17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Points of Departure
Today's post, Points of Departure was originally published on 09 September 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Hollywood seems to model "emotionless" AI's as humans with some slight differences. For the most part, they act as emotionally repressed humans, despite the fact th... |
5f229170-4caf-4a95-9c6f-54003138249f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conceptual Similarity Does Not Imply Actionable Similarity
This is another essay about naming things, dichotomies, and where subtle mix-ups can lead to errors. More specifically, I’d like to draw your attention to situations where a very real conceptual commonality is present between several problems, but this commona... |
42d074f8-fed7-4fb4-bbb0-44e5881f09c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong IRC meetup, going soon
Reminder: Less Wrong will be having a meetup on Saturday at 7pm UTC (convert to other time zones), in the #lesswrong IRC channel on Freenode. If all goes well, this will be a recurring event. If you haven't used IRC before, Mibbit provides a web-based client you can use.
(It's my un... |
de0b8013-760b-48b5-92ea-94204ab5b1a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Box Log
Here's the log of the AI Box experiment that just finished, with MileyCyrus as the AI and me as the Gatekeeper. The AI was not let out of the box.
(9:33:25 PM) Dorikka: I may need to get up for a minute while we're playing, but I'll keep it as short as possible. I'll just give you the time back on the end,... |
c86a997d-e9a2-4568-b53b-6515164811e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Family and Society
The PDF version can be read here.
The audio version can be listened to here:
Humans have the capacity to form different types of relationships, which are mediated by emotions. We can divide these relationships into two categories: family and social. They create two types of structure: family and ... |
a52e8fe6-70a0-44c3-ac9b-e844ad07e142 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Linkpost: A Comprehensive Review of Ikoria, Lair of Behemoths
If Magic: The Gathering is relevant to your interests, enjoy it at CoolStuffInc. |
b11b25b8-ce0d-4ecc-8b33-73f2321f3ced | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Future Matters #8: Bing Chat, AI labs on safety, and pausing Future Matters
[***Future Matters***](https://www.futurematters.news/) is a newsletter about longtermism and existential risk. Each month we collect and summarize relevant research and news from the community, and feature a conversation with a prominent rese... |
daaa522c-6e78-4cda-8dd1-53ab7e24c237 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 11/4: The After Times
The hope is that the pandemic will be fully and truly over because case counts will be sufficiently low, and vaccination rates sufficiently high, that we can all agree to move on and resume our lives.
The fear is that this will never happen. Either cases will climb back up and be sufficien... |
d39efb50-beaf-4066-9bd0-0cbef50dce51 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Counterfactual Planning in AGI Systems
1 Introduction
---------------
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) systems are hypothetical future
machine reasoning systems that can match or exceed the capabilities of
humans in general problem solving. While it is still unclear if AGI
systems could ever be built, we can a... |
acbc7f0d-233d-4671-aa8d-9da88403f621 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts on the Feasibility of Prosaic AGI Alignment?
I’d like to preface by saying that I am *not* an expert on AI by any means, nor am I remotely involved with any kind of research or studies relevant to ML. I have no insight regarding any of the technical or mathematical aspects of discussions about this technology... |
6af170af-fcdf-44d9-aa38-647193c31083 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Researchers devise technique to allow X-ray crystallography of un-crystallized molecule groups
> (Phys.org) —A team of researchers working in Japan has developed a method for allowing X-ray crystallography to work on molecular groups that have not first been crystallized. In their paper published in the journal... |
f525edf4-e628-4f80-8f47-5e0ad917f0f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Syntacticism
I've mentioned in comments a couple of times that I don't consider formal systems to talk about themselves, and that consequently Gödelian problems are irrelevant. So what am I actually on about?
It's generally accepted in mathematical logic that a formal system which embodies Peano Arithmetic (PA) is a... |
c74bbed3-862b-4449-9fa3-1dee50edc02a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI views and disagreements AMA: Christiano, Ngo, Shah, Soares, Yudkowsky
In late 2021, MIRI hosted a [**series of conversations about AI risk**](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/QtBPgszyK4yXwduKS) with a number of other EAs working in this problem area. As of today, we've [finished](https://forum.effectivealtruis... |
34a38f35-11c7-4fb2-bc3d-a597d6f2c090 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Proofs Section 2.3 (Updates, Decision Theory)
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap... |
2249f2db-5bff-4057-bc25-423803765be6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: “The Heart of the Brain: The Hypothalamus and Its Hormones”
1. Introduction
1.1 Hypothalamus as “business logic”
In software jargon, there’s a nice term “business logic”, for code like the following (made-up) excerpt from corporate tax filing software (based on here):
def attachSupplementalDocuments(fi... |
8996e444-1c32-4c03-b73d-664b2c3ddd4f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Do Deep Generative Models Know What They Don't Know?
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep learning has achieved impressive success in applications for which the goal is to model a conditional distribution p(y|𝒙)𝑝conditional𝑦𝒙p(y|{\bm{x}})italic\_p ( italic\_y | bold\_italic\_x ), with y𝑦yitalic\_y being a label... |
308aa0a7-e9ff-4e29-bc61-4b41a9809741 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup Report Thread: September 2014
If you had an interesting Less Wrong meetup recently, but don't have the time to write up a big report to post to Discussion, feel free to write a comment here. Even if it's just a couple lines about what you did and how people felt about it, it might encourage some people to atte... |
aa242f55-f585-4a0b-85c3-aefb33c4df28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scalable oversight as a quantitative rather than qualitative problem
[Many of these ideas were developed in conversation with Ryan Greenblatt and Ansh Radhakrishnan; a lot of this isn’t original but I haven’t seen it written up]
A lot of the time when people talk about scalable oversight, which I'll define for the mo... |
831d990a-6cf0-4f4a-b3fe-c03828c8c351 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Playbook for the Great Divergence
As we progress through the advanced stages of a period that can be called "the great divergence", the divide between those who can effectively utilise AI tools and those who cannot is widening. In the final stage (sometimes referred to as "the singularity" by the techno-religious), AI... |
383aae5a-060a-4694-ab0d-c14ebe48b554 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Electoral Systems
Crossposting from my substack.
I figured I would crosspost to LessWrong since electoral systems seem like the type of thing rationalists would be interested in.
----------------------------------------
This is the latest post in my constitutional design series. It is the quintessential topic of co... |
71ef53f3-9cf1-4ad9-9236-731e750e8b08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetups: Climbing uphill, flowing downhill, and the Uncanny Summit
Epistemic status: rough partial-model formed from... well, basically a single conversation, but which resonated with several years of vague accumulated impressions. Curious if it resonates or anti-resonates with others.
In the comments of Mingyuan's "... |
bfd2d0cf-7746-4e5a-aa98-de33e71730a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reversal Tests in Argument and Debate
One thing that I've noticed recently is that simple reversal tests can be very useful for detecting bias when it comes to evaluating policy arguments or points made in a debate.
In other words, when encountering an argument it can be useful to think "Would I accept this sort of a... |
c3d1cc62-4e5e-4b54-b5ac-c53d3eea4b53 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 264. Our Approach to Alignment Research
hello and welcome to session
264 in the aisafety.com reading group
tonight we'll be discussing uh our
approach to alignment research by Jan
liger John schoolman and Jeffrey boom
these uh three people John Lager John
Schulman and Jeffrey Wu are working at
open Ai and the when the... |
8f0e17a6-74c2-4709-8f46-ea0a39b7a3f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Still possible to change username?
I could swear there used to be an option for changing one's username (I've done it before). Has this option been removed? Am I just too daft to find where to click? Or is it auto-disabled after you've done it once? |
01e3fffd-8014-4d53-9ad3-6c3ee5493aa4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Cached Thoughts
Today's post, Cached Thoughts was originally published on 11 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Brains are slow. They need to cache as much as they can. They store answers to questions, so that no new thought is required to answer. Answers copied from others can end up ... |
dbe62a0b-1668-438f-9354-0e50ea09e86e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Difficulties in making powerful aligned AI
Here’s my breakdown of the difficulties involved in ensuring powerful AI makes our lives radically better, rather than taking over the world, as well as some reasons why I think they’re hard. Here are things it’s not:
* It’s not primarily a justification of why very powerfu... |
1713a830-d146-4495-9413-088807a58d2f | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post16
Disclaimer: Post written in a personal capacity. These are personal opinions and do not in any way represent my employer's views TL;DR: I do not think we will produce high reliability methods to evaluate or monitor the safety of superintelligent systems via current research paradigms, with interpretability ... |
a6f17cde-9a7e-4653-87d2-e5221aa6216a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unrefined thoughts on some things rationalism is missing vs religions
Rationalism seems somewhat like a proto-religion to me. It has norms of behavior very different from society at large. It has apocalyptic prophecies which it's members strive to stave off. Still, what's missing? I think a few things:
* Rituals
* ... |
b2e1bc66-01b8-4c5f-a613-a3ad9e206a8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2022-11-22
The Progress Forum
* Welcome to the Progress Forum, the online home for the progress community
* How fear of the ‘Mega-Machine’ helped end America’s postwar Golden Age
* Anton Howes on why we waited so long for the optical telegraph
* The curse of plenty (by @mattsclancy)
* H... |
d38f61aa-757e-4246-a77f-8d8ce161f129 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Utopias
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Utopias
WHEN: 01 May 2016 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
copy-pasted from a draft by the member who proposed the topic:
We’ll be gathering in the courtyard to discuss utopias. The idea behind the topic is, in light ... |
8ff2fe52-729f-4848-b322-51a27a40de75 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Causal Abstraction Intro
I haven't been terribly satisfied by the first few posts in this sequence; they don't do a very good job introducing things. I think part of the problem is the format, so I [decided to invest in a high-end studio](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KzAG4yWQJosmEjHe2/blatant-lies-are-the-best-kind... |
de446de0-ba6c-4dc6-b1b6-1b73c4b39d32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Year's Resolutions
It's perhaps a bit late to kick this off, but:
What are your resolutions for 2011, if you choose to make use of that Schelling point for self-improvement? |
e665bd93-038f-4895-a4ff-6d6ef95cb58a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Legal Personhood for Models: Novelli et. al & Mocanu
In a previous article I detailed FSU Law professor Nadia Batenka's proposed "Inverted Sliding Scale Framework" approach to the question of legal personhood for digital intelligences.
In this article, I am going to examine another paper approaching the issue which ... |
eab9211a-a3ab-4d5b-b65b-f3c43618c56c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hedonic adaptation: you should not seeks pleasure
Epistemic status: highly important knowledge, but approximately two-thirds of people on LessWrong already know it. However, I add some new ideas.
Today's world is awesome, but some peoples are unhappy anywhere. Why did all the peoples of middle age did not suicided, i... |
f9f50da6-9003-44fa-a21c-9caf1e5f7e40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Podcast (+transcript): Nathan Barnard on how US financial regulation can inform AI governance
Listen on:
* Google Podcasts
* Spotify
* Apple Podcasts
Intro and context
A few weeks ago, @Nathan_Barnard published What we can learn from stress testing for AI regulation. I had him on my new (and very informal) podca... |
57de4ac5-936e-4bc7-9f32-94bfe7c034cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Religious Behaviorism
Willard Quine described, in his article "Ontological Relativity" (Journal of Philosophy 65(7):185-212), his doctrine of the indeterminability of translation. Roughly, this says that words are meaningful (a collection of words emitted by an agent can help predict that agent's actions), but don't ... |
65683dd2-0422-4bef-96eb-73f927de2309 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human Extinction by AI through economic power
Introduction
Many AI risk scenarios involve an AI developing weaponry and engaging in large-scale conflict with human institutions. While these scenarios can be captivating, I believe that focusing on them might detract from exploring more plausible risks. Here are two sce... |
ac08db5a-a11a-4690-b2ec-afed6ec20cd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Duels
(Crosspost from my more casual blog.)
Decision duels are a feature of David's Sling, a novel by Marc Stiegler about technology, nuclear suppression and human rationality. They're used as an organizational means of decision-making, not dissimilar to the double crux - they're not quite debates or policy ... |
50dbfe7d-2fbc-4c16-8c04-71ccfb1a72d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #123]: Inferring what is valuable in order to align recommender systems
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been... |
18fef3db-65b8-4724-b910-23fd10bb4910 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The ‘ petertodd’ phenomenon
**Note:**Nothing in this post is intended to vilify or defame any actual human named Peter Todd. I recognise that the existence of this phenomenon may be an uncomfortable fact for anyone with that name and do not wish to cause anyone discomfort. However, I feel that this phenomenon cannot b... |
14e96e43-5c10-4aeb-b62c-ef4a36467693 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The 8 Techniques to Tolerify the Dark World
The world is dark. People die all the time in horrible and stupid ways, inequalities roam more freely than in a Ramanujan notebook, outrage and partisanship boil everyone's mind and temper to permanent overdrive.
In this context, there is only one solution: tolerifying. Whe... |
ff80925c-4334-4908-819a-957ca79b0015 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaculus Hosts ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
The ACX 2024 Prediction Contest is open!
Scott Alexander's annual tradition of predicting the upcoming year has evolved into a full forecasting contest. For 2024, he invited Metaculus to host the competition. Kick off the new year forecasting on questions like:
* Will an ... |
1291068d-cb63-43a7-938d-27f2ad8988db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SOLAR model paper questions
A recent paper has peeked my interest coming from UpstageAI, a Korean AI Lab.
This technique applied in the paper has been used to get the highest scores on the open LLM leaderboard on HuggingFace.
Has anyone read the paper in more detail? I'm struggling to understand the following paragr... |
922f07c8-e82b-4552-bcd3-e259a29b5305 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 'Mink variant'
A new strain of Covid - "Covid-19 mink variant" or "Cluster 5" - has been circulating in Denmark. The Danish PM announced that twelve people are confirmed infected by the virus; Denmark has ordered the destruction of all of the country's 15million+ mink. Denmark has now imposed local lockdowns to ... |
48cc6362-0c85-4cd7-a9cc-3c268d96b53e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the PIBBSS Symposium '24!
Tl;dr
We are pleased to invite you to the second PIBBSS Symposium, where the fellows from the ‘24 fellowship program present their work.
The symposium is taking place online, over several days in the week of September 9th.
* Check out the full program, including brief descrip... |
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