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a7928f0e-037c-4358-b4db-188ee3b3c92f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence 13: Capability control methods
*This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far ... |
3cecd93a-47d1-4e8a-a10d-5d824190dae8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why are people so bad at dating?
I’m confused why people are so bad at dating. It seems to me like there are tons of $20 bills lying on the ground which no one picks up.
For example, we know that people systematically choose unattractive images for their dating profiles. Sites like PhotoFeeler cheaply (in some cases,... |
e0e27dbc-ad8f-414b-acce-c7191b3f15ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leaving a line of retreat for theists
Eliezer recommends that we leave a line of retreat when discussing controversial topics, since this prevents scary propositions from clouding our judgment. However, I've noticed recently that there are some topics that are just too scary for people to think about, the existence of... |
938fad1c-32b0-48fe-94d1-dda027cd0abe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-Obvious Benefits of Insurance
An incredibly productive way of working with the world is to reduce a complex question to something that can be modeled mathematically and then do the math. The most common way this can fail, however, is when your model is missing important properties of the real world.
Consider insu... |
5aeabafa-1e72-42f7-aa94-5346acd62efc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Atheist's Tithe
I made a comment on another site a week or two ago, and I just realized that the line of thought is one that LW would appreciate, so here's a somewhat expanded version.
There's a lot of discussion around here about how to best give to charities, and I'm all for this. Ensuring donations are used w... |
c474dc78-5255-42a0-a9dd-5f5eb5d27b03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, 9-15 June 2014
Previous Open Thread
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one.
3. Open Threads should be posted ... |
d38d9845-1dfc-433a-a307-f549a0ae3d83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disagreements about Alignment: Why, and how, we should try to solve them
Tldr
1. AI Alignment does not follow the standard scientific method.
2. Therefore, we might not agree on which research agendas have the potential to align AGI systems.
3. We should work intentionally to build consensus around the foundations ... |
94b2c25e-7d2e-47b2-82ae-11e652eb83d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kansas City Dojo meetup 11-19-19
I.) ROUND TABLE
* I began by sharing an instance today where I fell for Cognitive Fusion, but successfully noticed it myself. After our catering order of subs last week, I had developed the routine “pick up food on the way to the Dojo”. This week, I changed the food to pre-packaged f... |
1e6b93fd-2ac5-4d6d-9602-8c5510aa6217 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On self-deception
(Meta-note: First post on this site)
I have read the sequence on self-deception/doublethink and I have some comments for which I'd like to solicit feedback. This post is going to focus on the idea that it's impossible to deceive oneself, or to make oneself believe something which one knows apriori t... |
5735485f-f503-4b81-bf4b-6398ce2a2bd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Musings about the AGI strategic landscape
My model of the economy after AGI is not currently explosive. There is some acceleration and risk but the level of existential risk does not have a huge multiplier. I thought it interesting to map out my current thoughts, based on these assumptions. I'm exploring the scenario ... |
689ec95d-ea6b-4ded-9afb-f82c20ebf355 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Graz Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Graz Meetup
WHEN: 28 April 2012 11:21:03PM (+0200)
WHERE: Graz, Steiermark, Austria
Meet up. Please upvote the comment post asking for attendance, and the subcomments for date, time, location, and any other suggestions.
Discussion article for the meetup : G... |
7c0ffce1-a3bd-4ab6-817f-63ca53c90ecc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why AGI Timeline Research/Discourse Might Be Overrated
**TL;DR:** Research and discourse on AGI timelines aren't as helpful as they may at first appear, and a lot of the low-hanging fruit (i.e. motivating AGI-this-century as a serious possibility) has already been plucked.
*Introduction*
==============
A very commo... |
0f79f23f-4ece-4935-9231-04cfec8b0044 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Distributed Cooperation
Reflective oracles can be approximated by computing Nash equilibria. But is there some procedure that produces a Pareto-optimal equilibrium in a game, aka, a point produced by a Cooperative oracle? It turns out there is. There are some interesting philosophical aspects to it, which will be type... |
2dc7bb86-ab2c-4640-9b63-486489c506f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does immortality imply eternal existence in linear time?
The question is important, as it’s often used as an argument against idea of immortality, on the level of desirability as well as feasibility. It may result in less interest in radical life extension as "result will be the same", we will die. Religion, on the o... |
f5d3d871-52a2-4fbc-afae-8e6f592dd9ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | TIL in Medical School - Doctors have myths too.
Today I Learned in Medical School:
Doctors have medical myths too! According to my prof, many doctors believe that aspiration (having stuff go down into the lungs) causes anaerobic pneumonia, but that is rarely the case. He says that myth is often taught resident-to-stu... |
15246189-6a01-4246-80ba-cca32de80b3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropomorphic Optimism
The core fallacy of anthropomorphism is expecting something to be predicted by the black box of your brain, when its casual structure is so different from that of a human brain, as to give you no license to expect any such thing.
The Tragedy of Group Selectionism (as previously covered in the... |
952caa0b-3191-49ec-ad9c-7ea85c21305d | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "When I expect to meet new people who have no idea who I am, I often wear a button on my shirt that says:
SPEAK THE TRUTH,EVEN IF YOUR VOICE TREMBLES
Honesty toward others, it seems to me, obviously bears some relation to rationality. In practice, the people I know who seem to make unusual efforts at rationality, are u... |
fada5a2b-1bdf-4c97-a426-f58411f5dff8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Survey Article: How do I become a more interesting person?
This post surveys a number of different sources and opinions on how to be a more interesting person. This isn’t merely about improving yourself socially or making your interactions more enjoyable, but also about achieving your full potential as a human being. ... |
9d308ebe-e3c9-423c-b564-4027c54b589e | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post2762
Introduction Informally, a universal system is universal with respect to any computation; and it is a universal system with respect to a given computation if it understands every set of beliefs that can be ascribed to the computation. The intuition is that the system can reverse engineer most or all of th... |
b7dc7a2b-7f18-42a5-aa82-f47fc6fb4173 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future
You can subscribe to the newsletter here, follow the newsletter on twitter here, or join the subreddit here.
----------------------------------------
Welcome to the 6th issue of the ML Safety Newsletter. In this edition, we cover:... |
dcf1592a-92c7-45e2-889f-f48a1ca3fd97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] FLI's recommended project grants for AI safety research announced
http://futureoflife.org/misc/2015awardees
You may recognize several familiar names there, such as Paul Christiano, Benja Fallenstein, Katja Grace, Nick Bostrom, Anna Salamon, Jacob Steinhardt, Stuart Russell... and me. (the $20,000 for my projec... |
a4c42c17-79c1-4836-a117-c0e60b86c8f0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Cold Links: heartwarming sports stuff
Apparently Marcus Smart is [really good at "taking charges,"](https://www.espn.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4725417/marcus-smart-taking-charge-for-boston-celtics) which means positioning himself so that an offensive player will run into him and foul him. This requires getting... |
667194ef-a627-476b-a769-42f5db0f8047 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do Metaculus and Manifold display the community predictions?
I wish the community predictions were hidden by default, with the option of viewing them with the click of a button. Alternatively, I wish there was a setting option to hide them. This will help me avoid anchoring when I'm practising the art of forecast... |
4a722b36-0866-46fc-b79c-7dc921df2b2f | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I was once present when William Hurlbut, during a debate with Aubrey de Grey, spoke of “the meaning that death gives to life”; Hurlbut repeated the standard claims that life without death would be meaningless and empty. As I replied during the comments session, Hurlbut had not made a sincere effort to think about what... |
cc8b176a-7acb-4d0c-aebe-6ec85c3787ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Situational Confidence Assistance for Lifelong Shared Autonomy.
I Introduction
---------------
In shared autonomy [[1](#bib.bib1), [2](#bib.bib2), [3](#bib.bib3), [4](#bib.bib4), [5](#bib.bib5), [6](#bib.bib6), [7](#bib.bib7), [8](#bib.bib8), [9](#bib.bib9), [10](#bib.bib10), [11](#bib.bib11)], robots assist human ... |
8243d064-9f74-4552-b62b-5b1533590b3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Large Language Models Converge on Brain-Like Word Representations
This is a linkpost for https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.01930
> One of the greatest puzzles of all time is how understanding arises from neural mechanics. Our brains are networks of billions of biological neurons transmitting chemical and electric... |
806480da-2f18-4853-af4d-36c83d817411 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion
WHEN: 12 March 2017 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg 4th floor, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250
No parking restrictions on weekends, so park where... |
a974f694-9940-4650-b950-602cdcac5aca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Responses and Testimonies on EA Growth
Follow up to Monday's post Why Hasn't Effective Altruism Grown Since 2015?. See discussions on r/scc, LessWrong and EA Forum.
I'm honored to have received responses from Scott Alexander, Katja Grace (AI Impacts), Peter Hurford (Rethink Priorities), and Rob Bensinger (MIRI), amon... |
8efb5c3a-8a1f-45f9-82ad-28babb94b063 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The LessWrong 2022 Review
The snow is falling, the carols are starting, and we all know it's time for our favorite winter holiday tradition. It's LessWrong review time!
Each year we come together and review posts that are at least one year old. That means for the next two months we are reviewing all posts from 2022.
... |
5bb0f730-a6e4-44f7-857e-66271dc59f64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We can do better than argmax
Summary: A much-discussed normative model of prioritisation in EA is akin to argmax (putting all resources on your top option). But this model often prescribes foolish things, so we rightly deviate from it – but in ad hoc ways. We describe a more principled approach: a kind of softmax, in ... |
dbac0e8c-1fb1-49ef-ac9c-119e9de5219a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #87: Staying in Character
The big news of the week was the release of a new version of Claude Sonnet 3.5, complete with its ability (for now only through the API) to outright use your computer, if you let it. It’s too early to tell how big an upgrade this is otherwise. ChatGPT got some interface tweaks that, while ... |
21647c99-d085-40cf-9694-b3e17fa8140e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your Communication Preferences Aren’t Law
When you start practicing a shiny new communication method—like neatly sorting your observations from your judgments—you tend to pick up a few rules on how you “should” talk. You learn these rules from courses, books, or practicing with other rule-followers.
Soon enough, you'... |
5dfd7cae-52a3-4150-8a04-9b6b03cae011 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adversarial Examples Are Not Bugs, They Are Features
1 Introduction
---------------
The pervasive brittleness of deep neural
networks \citepszegedy2014intriguing,engstrom2019rotation,hendrycks2019benchmarking,athalye2018synthesizing has attracted
significant attention in recent years.
Particularly worrisome is the ... |
c0cc6468-09a1-4860-9309-131da1d81654 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | #4.1: Types of life insurance
This is post 5 of 10 in my cryonics signup guide, and the second of five posts on life insurance.
----------------------------------------
In this post, I'll cover the different types of life insurance policies you might want to use to fund your cryopreservation. This is the most compli... |
d5fc96c5-e097-4c77-b24e-76a670d58892 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How model editing could help with the alignment problem
Preface
This article explores the potential of model editing techniques in aligning future AI systems. Initially, I was skeptical about its efficacy, especially considering the objectives of current model editing methods. I argue that merely editing "facts" isn'... |
3d04c35e-37b3-4892-83a6-0196b5c5c78a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Does generality pay? GPT-3 can provide preliminary evidence.
One open question in predicting the future development of AI is whether individual AI systems will tend to remain highly specialized or become more general over time. In the [most recent 80,000 Hours Podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ben-garfi... |
d163d41f-09e1-4b6e-90b1-760098acbf26 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Counterfactuals as a matter of Social Convention
In my [last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j5CJZ566Pj3AwfrBT/open-box-newcomb-s-problem-and-the-limitations-of-the), I wrote that the counterfactuals in Transparent-Box Newcomb's problem were largely a matter of social convention. One point I overlooked for a lon... |
6c4d85c4-7abd-4671-8945-e99c6c84b965 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
This is a transcription of Eliezer Yudkowsky responding to Paul Christiano's Takeoff Speeds live on Sep. 14, followed by a conversation between Eliezer and Paul. This discussion took place after Eliezer's conversation with Richard Ngo.
Color key:
Chat by Paul and... |
eb3d3905-0a90-4373-8711-6f5421955f91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reacts now enabled on 100% of posts, though still just experimenting
Update 3
We've just released our first draft of Inline Reacts. See this comment for more information. It's currently only enabled on this post, but if it seems to be working smoothly/intuitively we may roll it out for more posts.
Update 2
I've now... |
3086c319-9304-4668-b1b7-66b88a725748 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality 101 - how would you introduce a person to the rationalist concepts? What are the best topics to learn/explain first?
How do you think curriculum of rationality 101 should look like? I want to make a brief course(a series of short animated youtube videos), ideally on the level accessible to a normal 14-17 y... |
3a984b21-3f90-4623-b467-9d5ec4cb571d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning-based Model Predictive Control for Safe Exploration
I Introduction
---------------
In model-based reinforcement learning (RL,[[1](#bib.bib1)]), we aim to learn the dynamics of an unknown system from data, and based on the model, derive a policy that optimizes the long-term behavior of the system. Crucial t... |
fdb8a5bb-dd41-4d21-9cb8-fd99996a5460 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Do AI researchers Rate the Probability of Doom So Low?
I recently read What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022.
The probability of Doom is sub-10%. Which is high, but as I understand it, in the minds of people like Eliezer Yudkowsky, we're more likely doomed than not.
I personally lean towards Yudkowsky... |
2db162a2-e66d-4f69-8ad9-3a0c0c9ecd58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Registrations Open for 2024 NYC Secular Solstice & Megameetup
On December 14th, New York City will have a Secular Solstice. Solstice is a holiday for people comfortable with uncomfortable truths and who believe in good. Secular Solstices take place in many cities around the world, but for us New York City is the best ... |
abb3e959-b498-42f6-b1b5-7195f2b3e6b4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Aligned Behavior is not Evidence of Alignment Past a Certain Level of Intelligence
edit: Several days after posting this and asking for feedback on it someone pointed me to this post: [Does SGD Produce Deceptive Alignment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ocWqg2Pf2br4jMmKA/does-sgd-produce-deceptive-alignment) by Mark ... |
c8026ff2-2a20-46de-b0df-6f321d044adf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | GPT-3 and concept extrapolation
At the latest EAG in London, I was challenged to explain what concept extrapolation would mean for GPT-3.
My first thought was the example from [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QppXf4yfcG8JAKhnw/more-gpt-3-and-symbol-grounding#Undead_repetitive_workers_on_the_weekend), wher... |
76bbc62e-f7ee-44a3-a6b7-cd84c6ca1957 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | 7 essays on Building a Better Future
“Building a Better Future” is a free, eight-day, residential programme run by [Leaf](https://leaf.courses/) that allows bright and curious 16-18 year olds to explore ideas, methodologies, and opportunities for helping others and building a better world.
The first programme was run... |
40ec46cd-2c88-426d-a197-4733f0145d44 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [linkpost] The final AI benchmark: BIG-bench
There is a Google project called [BIG-bench](https://github.com/google/BIG-bench), with contributions from OpenAI and other big orgs. They've crowdsourced >200 of highly diverse text tasks (from answering scientific questions to predicting protein interacting sites to measu... |
3d3c595c-4ef0-4693-8aa0-0e4f6ce08b2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 4
Luna located the Ravenclaw Common Room on the map. She climbed up to Ravenclaw Tower, then climbed up Ravenclaw Tower. All that separated Luna from making day-one friends was a door with a bronze knocker in the shape of an eagle which spoke riddles appropriate for firs... |
a23b8439-139d-4591-ab3c-3e698f115b73 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | EIS V: Blind Spots In AI Safety Interpretability Research
Part 5 of 12 in the [Engineer’s Interpretability Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/a6ne2ve5uturEEQK7).
Thanks to Anson Ho, Chris Olah, Neel Nanda, and Tony Wang for some discussions and comments.
**TAISIC = “the AI safety interpretability community”... |
dc682521-b1ee-4cf6-a7b4-40c1d83b8a97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value Claims (In Particular) Are Usually Bullshit
Epistemic status: mental model which I have found picks out bullshit surprisingly well.
Idea 1: Parasitic memes tend to be value-claims, as opposed to belief-claims
By "parasitic memes" I mean memes whose main function is to copy themselves - as opposed to, say, actu... |
8f8bdffa-6e5b-491c-a63b-dfff18a7906c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 5 psychological reasons for dismissing x-risks from AGI
People fiercely argue whether AGI will likely be an existential threat or not.
Most of the arguments explore conceptual, technical, or governance aspects of the topic, and are based on reason, logic, and predictions, but things are so complex and uncertain tha... |
a41f24f4-701d-4096-bb17-06d232e1a255 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What's actually going on in the "mind" of the model when we fine-tune GPT-3 to InstructGPT?
I [posted](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BPRHZFH2xx7nz5TYT/open-and-welcome-thread-january-2023?commentId=LufkFyHkAarrf3yLN) in the open thread and was told that it would be worth promoting to top level.
cubefox [responded]... |
4a2dfd6a-7e68-443c-a7cf-60ad8d416d83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-studying to develop an inside-view model of AI alignment; co-studiers welcome!
tldr: It's hard for me to develop inside views of AI alignment, but I feel like I'm approximately ready for it now. So I'm developing a curriculum for myself, and I'd welcome people who want to join me in creating their own curricula a... |
a35d7a6b-e521-4cc2-8fb8-e1a3a6e5becc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Why Cryonics Makes Sense - Wait But Why
Wait But Why published an article on cryonics:
http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html |
d37b47e6-bf71-4c8e-9e5b-43109d0e9a0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Top OpenAI Catastrophic Risk Official Steps Down Abruptly
This is the full text of a post from Obsolete, a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race t... |
6b78b065-8a15-4387-a72a-ebfeb254670b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Time for AI to cross the human performance range in diabetic retinopathy
In diabetic retinopathy, automated systems started out just below expert human level performance, and took around ten years to reach expert human level performance.
Details
-------
Diabetic retinopathy is a complication of diabetes in which t... |
dead3120-60f0-4165-8a41-00d888746417 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Elements of Computational Philosophy, Vol. I: Truth
We're excited to share the first volume of Elements of Computational Philosophy, an interdisciplinary and collaborative project series focused on operationalizing fundamental philosophical notions in ways that are natively compatible with the current paradigm in AI.
... |
de8c6e56-059e-47c8-a3f1-cc835ea1e020 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looks like it was a completely different problem.... "LW Women: Submissions on misogyny" needs normal visibility
Edited to add: The post was probably always in Discussion, but if "r/discussion" is taken out of a url, the post looks like it's in Main but without proper notification. See the comments here for a bit more... |
573d9b89-b4d6-4b02-8803-d8594e20c5e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Very Short Introduction to Bayesian Model Comparison
At least within Bayesian probability, there is a single unique unambiguously-correct answer to "how should we penalize for model complexity?": calculate the probability of each model, given the data. This is Hard to compute in general, which is why there's a whole ... |
08b0c161-aa43-47bd-8399-8c4d50d9a33b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | find_purpose.exe
If you found out that the Christian God was real, and all the things in the Bible were true, would you change your behavior? What if, instead, you found out you are in The Matrix, and you could take a pill to escape to the real world?
I suspect that such revelations would instantly change your values... |
ca26bb44-33ca-4d7c-85e7-0fb4a965d1a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | What we’ve learned so far from our technological temptations project
*Rick Korzekwa, 11 April 2023, updated 13 April 2023*
At AI Impacts, we’ve been looking into how people, institutions, and society approach novel, powerful technologies. One part of this is our [technological temptations project](https://wiki.aiimp... |
b0cae7ea-2525-4567-84b8-9b0b5a3af073 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Templates I made to run feedback rounds for Ethan Perez’s research fellows.
TL;DR: I'm releasing my templates to make running feedback rounds easy for research teams that might otherwise neglect to set it up.
The main questions on my feedback form template
Why I wrote this post:
* Feedback is my job:
* My rol... |
92fd5787-a22f-46f2-b836-30ea62bb1034 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A conversation with Pi, a conversational AI.
I've spent most of my time with ChatGPT, Bard, and the various incarnations of Bing. However, I have to say that Pi is the best conversationalist of the bunch. And I believe the addition of high-quality voice capability separates Pi from the other chatbots. Bard has a very ... |
f74d06bc-5dd8-48b8-9734-f62ea04866ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra: Akrasia-busters!
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra: Akrasia-busters!
WHEN: 13 September 2014 06:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 108 North Road, Acton, ACT
Alexa will give a talk about using rewards to fight akrasia. Where is it better to set up external rewards and where should we focus on intr... |
21c340d5-f801-4d57-a4f6-4c35d1d9de54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Rocket Alignment Problem
The following is a fictional dialogue building off of AI Alignment: Why It’s Hard, and Where to Start.
----------------------------------------
(Somewhere in a not-very-near neighboring world, where science took a very different course…)
----------------------------------------
ALFONSO... |
1b041918-ab73-4b7e-b392-41fee0c9442e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fundamentals of Formalisation level 1: Basic Logic
Followup to Soon: a weekly AI Safety prerequisites module on LessWrong
(note: we have a study group running a week ahead of this series that adds important content. It turns out that to get that content ready on a weekly basis, we would have to cut corners. We prefer... |
6f07530a-8e16-4f41-9dd0-9b271729d955 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Chess as a case study in hidden capabilities in ChatGPT
There are [lots](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FojyYKU58cw&ab_channel=GothamChess) [of](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWhlrkfJrCQ&ab_channel=GothamChess) [funny](https://www.reddit.com/r/AnarchyChess/comments/10ydnbb/i_placed_stockfish_white_against_chatgpt_b... |
283d2c8e-099f-4caf-b568-404edd44b431 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Trust in Bayes
Today's post, Trust in Bayes was originally published on 29 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> There is a long history of people claiming to have found paradoxes in Bayesian Probability Theory. Typically, these proofs are fallacious, but correct seeming, just as apparent... |
f4cf54ba-1cf9-41ac-9c2e-e04a9414d5be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fear or fear?
I wrote recently about how people tend to use the same words—and sometimes concepts—for ‘want’ as in ‘yearn for’ and ‘want’ as in ‘intend’. As in, ‘It’s so lovely here I want to stay forever’, yet ‘I want leave before midnight, because otherwise I will miss my train’. And the trouble this causes.
I thin... |
f025cd06-9801-4ba8-9672-b15a9b7151bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jack Clark on the realities of AI policy
Some choice picks:
> The real danger in Western AI policy isn't that AI is doing bad stuff, it's that governments are so unfathomably behind the frontier that they have no notion of _how_ to regulate, and it's unclear if they _can_
>
> Many AI policy teams in industry are con... |
5c503e27-0a19-4e62-b8ce-a8c98f7fe641 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Young Scientists
This should probably be 3 posts instead of one, but for now I’m going to go through three connected but separate ideas.
Also it’s not really been edited. Sorry.
Progress Studies and Young Scientists
I spent a bit of the last year exploring some topics and questions in Progress Studies, and I came ... |
f7750c46-29b1-4ea8-b458-8ddaa2899d97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethics Needs A Marginal Revolution
Introduction
Crosspost of this on my blog.
The marginal revolution in economics was a transformative shift that occurred when economists began thinking more about things at the margin—economists now talk about things like marginal costs, marginal revenue, and marginal revenue prod... |
c617b913-a09b-4f00-92e1-7180b8f43a55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Online Meetup: Balaji Srinivasan on "Nation of Emigrants"
In our ongoing SlateStarCodex online series, Balaji Srinivasan will speak on "A Nation of Emigrants: How Technology Will Enable Collective Bargaining with Governments". See abstract below.
After the talk and Q&A, we will also allow plenty of time for online mi... |
0cbdddd9-7c65-435e-8824-69ff3722072c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The San Francisco LessWrong Meetup
The mission of the SF LessWrong meetup is to provide a fun, low-key social space with some structured interaction, where new and non-new community members can mingle and have interesting conversations. Everyone is welcome. Yes, that includes you, if you're reading this.
We explicitl... |
da3d4ba8-eda4-4ce4-b26c-79157a142cda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Sleep Better
This is a cross-post from my personal blog.
What is this post about?
Over the summer of 2020, I slept pretty badly for a long period of time and it had pretty noticeable effects on my productivity, perceived energy levels, and well-being in general. This was mostly due to the fact that my room wa... |
62f8798b-a1fc-4938-9e7f-3f71ef2e2d91 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Explaining SolidGoldMagikarp by looking at it from random directions
**Summary**
-----------
I conducted an experiment that provides evidence that many of the weird tokens demonstrating the [SolidGoldMagikarp phenomenon](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aPeJE8bSo6rAFoLqg/solidgoldmagikarp-plus-prompt-generation) are i... |
7525f774-f6fe-4d6d-9e1b-892494f93a42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Worst Commonsense Concepts?
Perhaps the main tool of rationality is simply to use explicity reasoning where others don't, as Jacob Falcovich suggests:
> New York Times reporter Cade Metz interviewed me and other Rationalists mostly about how we were ahead of the curve on COVID and what others can learn from us. I tol... |
7b040e55-1ffd-4da1-b3fd-808e634d839b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pascal's mugging and Bayes
Suppose that your prior probability that giving $1000 to a stranger will save precisely N beings is P(1000$ saves N beings)=f(N) , where f is some sort of probability distribution.
When the stranger makes a claim that he will torture N beings unless you give him the $1000 , the probability ... |
64bb44a1-3586-4ee0-a977-407b8bb136d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Tower of Chaos, Training game
Discussion article for the meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Tower of Chaos, Training game
WHEN: 27 July 2016 07:40:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Moscow, B.Dorogomilovskaya, 5-2
Welcome to Moscow LW community makeshift games! In that g... |
5138e3bc-2dff-468b-b875-749f3d9a59cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discussion: Yudkowsky's actual accomplishments besides divulgation
Basically this: "Eliezer Yudkowsky writes and pretends he's an AI researcher but probably hasn't written so much as an Eliza bot."
While the Eliezer S. Yudkowsky site has lots of divulgation articles and his work on rationality is of indisputable val... |
f4e6668a-d734-434a-819c-e4573d2dd9bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revisiting Guide Dogs and Blindness Prevention
In early effective altruism it was common for people to give the example of deciding between donating to fund the training of guide dogs in wealthy countries or to reduce blindness in very poor countries. For example, here's what Giving What We Can used to say:
> For e... |
f1ef3c64-6739-4876-9a04-b3b59ec3028c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SociaLLM: proposal for a language model design for personalised apps, social science, and AI safety research
I first proposed this model here, as a base model for a proposed app to improve global online discourse through personalised comment ordering on all websites.
This post is also a response to the "Reverse-engin... |
692fe697-43a9-40e0-8a8d-894ac0a04894 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | States of knowledge as amplitude configurations
I am reading through the sequence on quantum physics and have had some questions which I am sure have been thought about by far more qualified people. If you have any useful comments or links about these ideas, please share.
Most of the strongest resistance to ideas abo... |
c2c42c2d-dc0b-4fe3-9b38-a2e11dc37f98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Was Your Best / Most Successful DALL-E 2 Prompt?
Share successful ways the AI was able to generate your image in the most accurate way possible. This could mean certain key phrases you inserted or the way the prompt is constructed from start to finish. |
19556402-c614-47b7-9699-16724b29aa83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Executable philosophy as a failed totalizing meta-worldview
(this is an expanded, edited version of an x.com post)
It is easy to interpret Eliezer Yudkowsky's main goal as creating a friendly AGI. Clearly, he has failed at this goal and has little hope of achieving it. That's not a particularly interesting analysis, ... |
57ed8533-d598-411b-a7c9-b12b0310b265 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Stanford THINK starts weekly meetups this Sunday
Discussion article for the meetup : Stanford THINK starts weekly meetups this Sunday
WHEN: 21 September 2014 04:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Old Union rm 121, Stanford University, Palo Alto
THINK is an effective altruism/rationality group that meets during the sch... |
5d076b5b-b3a8-496c-9bde-1e0bb31250da | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Examples of self-governance to reduce technology risk?
I'm searching for examples of self-governance efforts to reduce technology risk. Do people have cases to suggest? The more similar to AI development the better.
Examples from academia:
* Leo Szilard and other physicists coordinating to prevent Germany from obt... |
ea756e33-804a-4641-a2fd-16f98b4b40b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Video and transcript of talk on automating alignment research
This is the video and transcript of a talk I gave at Anthropic in April 2025 on automating alignment research. You can also view the slides here.
The content from this talk is from a longer essay on the topic, available here, and in audio form (read by th... |
4df352f7-367c-447b-8c99-bc1b305daf81 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | With One Voice: Composing a Travel Voice Assistant from Re-purposed Models
1. Introduction
----------------
Voice assistants have become a prevailing mode of communication between customers and companies (Hoy, [2018](#bib.bib17); Mari, [2019](#bib.bib24)). Today you can pick up your smart device and utter a request... |
a35f0b0c-a02e-416a-bdfd-c99d9752f7ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subspace optima
The term "global optimum" and "local optimum" have come from mathematical terminology and entered daily language. They are useful ways of thinking in every day life. Another useful concept, which I don't hear people talk about much is "subspace optimum": A point maximizes a function not in the whole sp... |
461ea78b-e73e-450d-8566-49fff42cbdb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Updated Hierarchy of Disagreement
In 2008 Paul Graham created the Hierarchy of Disagreement.
Then Loudacris had the genius idea to make this hierarchy into an easily shareable picture:
And thus internet debate was rational forever.
I joke, but I do genuinely believe that this image helped the quality of internet-de... |
e5d55398-c59f-4e50-8176-e6e944220bba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Hessian and Basin volume
*Thanks to Thomas Kwa for the question which prompted this post.*
**Note:** This is mostly a primer / introductory reference, not a research post. However, the details should be interesting even to those familiar with the area.
When discussing “broad basins” in the loss landscape of a DNN,... |
962ef520-5051-4e5c-80f3-30bd355bfe09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Towards Deconfusing Gradient Hacking
*[Epistemic status: brainstorming, less confused than last time since it seems to provide for a nice taxonomy of things to look into rather than just a bunch of random loose threads.]*
*This post would not exist without the* [*EleutherAI discord*](https://discord.gg/zBGx3azzUn) *a... |
bfb041cb-501d-4bce-a21b-7c5507da35c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Algebraic Linguistics
One of the first things they teach you in algebra is that the letters you use to signify variables are arbitrary, and you can use whatever you want[1]. Like most of the 'first things' students are taught, this is almost entirely a lie: every letter has implicit connotations, and if (for example) ... |
87603e7f-9918-43a2-abe7-5383060b9fc4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Inverse Scaling: When Bigger Isn’t Better
1 Introduction
---------------
Progress on large Language Models (LMs) has led to surprisingly capable and general-purpose AI systems such as ChatGPT (Schulman et al., [2022](#bib.bib28 "Introducing ChatGPT")), Claude (Anthropic, [2023](#bib.bib29 "Introducing Claude")), Ba... |
75425698-a804-49c9-838c-a42962856705 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where numbers come from
Crossposted from my personal website
Alternative title: Wolves hate him!! Shepherd compares the size of large sets with this one easy trick!
Previously: Recognizing Numbers
Let's do a thought experiment. I place an empty box in front of you. Then, while you're watching, I put these objects i... |
ad0c366a-28a8-4340-a29e-a0dc7e56576d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dependencies for AGI pessimism
Epistemic status: mildly confident
One must believe (with at least minimal confidence) in all of the following points in order to believe that AGI poses a unique existential risk:
A) AGI (at a superhuman level) is possible
B) AGI has a significant chance of finding value in destroying... |
961f27f1-8dbd-49aa-8a90-348f7b06e1df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Preparing for "The Talk" with AI projects
*Epistemic status: Written for Blog Post Day III. I don't get to talk to people "in the know" much, so maybe this post is obsolete in some way.*
I think that at some point at least one AI project will face an important choice between deploying and/or enlarging a powerful AI s... |
37a4e99a-2b9a-41ef-b7ed-0944fa571e9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unusual medical event led to concluding I was most likely an AI in a simulated world
(Edited version of what I posted to the Open Thread)
I registered because I had a very interesting experience earlier this week and I thought it might be of some interest to the community here. I suffered some sort of psychological or... |
8fd1582b-8dac-427e-8fb6-89dae17dbc01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment ideas
epistemic status: I know next to nothing about evolution, development psychology, AI, alignment. Anyway, I think the topic is important, and I should do my, however small part, in trying to think seriously for 5 minutes about it. So here's what I think
How come, that I am aligned? Somehow neocortex pl... |
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