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04b955c7-0d87-4593-b2bd-156672e25119 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 10
"Yes, I am the last man to have walked on the moon, and that's a very dubious and disappointing honor. It's been far too long."
-- Gene Cernan
"Man, you're no smarter than me. You're just a fancier kind of stupid."
-- Spider Robinson, Distraction
"Each problem that I solved beca... |
6c20d86e-4c8b-4a93-9a7e-7fee0e7c198a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Incredible Fentanyl-Detecting Machine
An NII machine in Nogales, AZ. (Image source)
There’s bound to be a lot of discussion of the Biden-Trump presidential debates last night, but I want to skip all the political prognostication and talk about the real issue: fentanyl-detecting machines.
Joe Biden says:
> And I... |
9eaf177f-2157-422b-83a3-1abec095f6a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thinking of tool AIs
Preliminary note: the ideas in the post emerged during the Learning-by-doing AI safety workshop at EA Hotel; special thanks to Linda Linsefors, Davide Zagami and Grue_Slinky for giving suggestions and feedback.
As the title anticipates, long-term safety is not the main topic of this post; for the... |
4a11e8f9-6d3b-4124-a973-f65809eee0b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Timeless Beauty
Today's post, Timeless Beauty was originally published on 28 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> To get rid of time you must reduce it to nontime. In timeless physics, everything that exists is perfectly global or perfectly local. The laws of physics are perfectly global; th... |
b0aee7f5-d1f0-4db3-a5da-a0ac223c0b82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Currently Buying AdWords for LessWrong
So I'm trying to build more rationalists. To do this, I've invested a few hundred dollars of my own money to promote Less Wrong by buying low-cost AdWords on Google for different LW pages. I want to reach smart people with a really good article from Less Wrong that answers thei... |
4da45c4b-ddbb-43da-9e8a-2f6643bda58f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Assessing Generalization in Reward Learning: Intro and Background
Generalization in Reward Learning
---------------------------------
An overview of reinforcement learning, generalization, and reward learning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
[![Max Chiswick](https://miro.med... |
8412ca2e-cd23-4b5f-905c-d370b6fdcabd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moravec's Paradox Comes From The Availability Heuristic
Epistemic Status: very quick one-thought post, may very well be arguing against a position nobody actually holds, but I haven’t seen this said explicitly anywhere so I figured I would say it.
Setting Up The Paradox
According to Wikipedia:
> Moravec’s paradox i... |
f21ca8a2-50d8-4b3c-8bc5-4f8edae01d06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Google invested $300M in Anthropic in late 2022
A few quotes from the article:
Google has invested about $300mn in artificial intelligence start-up Anthropic, making it the latest tech giant to throw its money and computing power behind a new generation of companies trying to claim a place in the booming f... |
d32296fe-a2e1-4306-bf5e-646a9986b7bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Goodhart Game
> In this paper, we argue that adversarial example defense papers have, to date, mostly considered abstract, toy games that do not relate to any specific security concern. Furthermore, defense papers have not yet precisely described all the abilities and limitations of attackers that would be relevan... |
2f5393f0-bc3b-4a6a-91eb-6f81ef17155d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good goals for leveling up?
I'm new to LessWrong and am trying to level up and internalize techniques to improve my life. I also want to increase my connection to the community, but that's less important for this question. I'm setting some goals for next year and was thinking about how to encode these meta-goals into ... |
2f766365-295e-40e4-aae6-44db0e0999b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 2/25: Holding Pattern
Scott Alexander reviewed his Covid-19 predictions, and I did my analysis as well.
It was a quiet week, with no big news on the Covid front. There was new vaccine data, same as the old vaccine data – once again, vaccines still work. Once again, there is no rush to approve them or even plan... |
2ba7e037-fb93-44d9-bcad-b80cc6506a60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review: “The Case Against Reality”
This is not a red stop sign:
For one thing, in a ceci n'est pas une pipe way, it’s not a stop sign at all, but a digital representation of a photograph of a stop sign, made visible by a computer monitor or maybe a printer. More subtly, “red” is not a quality of the sign, but of the ... |
5e3618c2-c101-4289-8a5f-7eda1d1aa587 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It's Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit
> "If you kiss your child, or your wife, say that you only kiss things which are human, and thus you will not be disturbed if either of them dies." - Epictetus
>
> "Whatever suffering arises, all arises due to attachment; with the cessation of attachment, there is the cessation of suff... |
976077c0-f189-455e-9a38-48643d449606 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can AI Transform the Electorate into a Citizen’s Assembly
Motivation: Modern democratic institutions are detached from those they wish to serve [1]. In small societies, democracy can easily be direct, with all the members of a community gathering to address important issues. As civilizations get larger, mass particip... |
03d5e86c-cf8b-4f40-ba46-a36314fac788 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Artifact: What Went Wrong?
Previously: Card Balance and Artifact, Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes, Review: Artifact
Epistemic Status: Looks pretty dead
Artifact had every advantage. Artifact should have been great. Artifact was great for the right players, and had generally positive reviews. Then Artifact fel... |
720ed140-a50c-4d2c-a6e2-3f8d49de48bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nash Equilibria and Schelling Points
A Nash equilibrium is an outcome in which neither player is willing to unilaterally change her strategy, and they are often applied to games in which both players move simultaneously and where decision trees are less useful.
Suppose my girlfriend and I have both lost our cell phon... |
994f2c50-c641-41c3-b362-62155f295106 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Impossibility of Anthropocentric-Alignment
Abstract: Values alignment, in AI safety, is typically construed as the imbuing into artificial intelligence of human values, so as to have the artificial intelligence act in ways that encourage what humans value to persist, and equally to preclude what humans do not value. “... |
29e93241-80a3-4bf5-bb69-74f48a806c3f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread: March 2010, part 2
The Open Thread posted at the beginning of the month has exceeded 500 comments – new Open Thread posts may be made here.
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-leve... |
f6e32b3a-d5f5-48a2-86b6-57c52a474f49 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | China’s New AI Governance Initiatives Shouldn’t Be Ignored
Over the past six months, the Chinese government has rolled out a series of policy documents and public pronouncements that are finally putting meat on the bone of the country’s governance regime for artificial intelligence (AI). Given China’s track record of ... |
309ae5fb-5d67-4a88-8534-001954a36f15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Avoiding Your Belief's Real Weak Points
A few years back, my great-grandmother died, in her nineties, after a long, slow, and cruel disintegration. I never knew her as a person, but in my distant childhood, she cooked for her family; I remember her gefilte fish, and her face, and that she was kind to me. At her funera... |
39fc4f43-a797-4537-9ad2-65e76a9b1d7f | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: 1aaba7c9ec55a66f
To be legible, evidence of misalignment probably has to be behavioral Redwood Research blog Subscribe Sign in Share this post Redwood Research blog To be legible, evidence of misalignment probably has to be behavioral Copy link Facebook Email Notes More To be legible, evidence of misalignment prob... |
d1e62382-c460-4955-bcfc-8b51278820a4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adversarial Examples for Evaluating Reading Comprehension Systems
1 Introduction
---------------
Quantifying the extent to which a computer system exhibits intelligent behavior
is a longstanding problem in AI (Levesque, [2013](#bib.bib13)).
Today, the standard paradigm is to
measure average error across a held-out ... |
5c88577d-0522-419b-9069-a4235c8a3b97 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Generalized Hindsight for Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) combined with powerful function approximators has achieved remarkable success in games like Atari (Mnih et al., [2015](#bib.bib110 "Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning")) and Go... |
50506dee-cfb2-41fd-b1e1-77fca3b6e739 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Reading with discipline, reconstruction and mnemonics
Discussion article for the meetup : Reading with discipline, reconstruction and mnemonics
WHEN: 21 April 2017 05:45:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Lindstedtsvägen 3, Room 1537, SE-114 28 Stockholm, Sverige
We'll go through how to complete large or difficult readin... |
c586c7b9-a2c9-4be0-ba33-0c41917fbe0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "The Unbiased Map"
“Long have we suffered under the tyranny of maps.
Biased maps which show topography, but not population.
Wretched maps which speak of religion, but not languages.
Divisive maps which paint with the color of Party, but not the color of economic conditions.
Dirty maps which show crop yield across ... |
e1217ec6-a04b-4079-aa03-6a8eb00b846c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, July 28 - August 3, 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one.
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, a... |
b4ef8128-2fc3-4231-a0c9-8feada008023 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3548
In which I propose a closed-form solution to low impact , increasing corrigibility and seemingly taking major steps to neutralize basic AI drives 1 (self-improvement), 5 (self-protectiveness), and 6 (acquisition of resources). Previously: Worrying about the Vase: Whitelisting , Overcoming Clinginess in Im... |
1f9f4bbd-3afe-458b-9f16-e7964c0e99f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's happening behind the scenes with my HowTruthful project
I've been quiet for the past 2 months about what's going on with HowTruthful. The reasons for this connect to my personal life. The easiest way for me to explain is to take you through the series of events that got me here.
In early October, while still ... |
7d3e9043-7f00-43f0-bff7-1bbf62012fcf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pattern-botching: when you forget you understand
It’s all too easy to let a false understanding of something replace your actual understanding. Sometimes this is an oversimplification, but it can also take the form of an overcomplication. I have an illuminating story:
Years ago, when I was young and foolish, I found ... |
a135ad19-1128-43b4-807d-3e710aa8b649 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jailbreaking GPT-4 with the tool API
WARNING: Contains mentions of racism, sexism, homophobia, and violence. We don't include the bad GPT-4 completions in this post, we link out to them.
OpenAI’s API has a tool API. Basically, when you prompt a model for a completion, you can also give it the option to “use a tool”. ... |
3b5fa519-e6d4-4392-8602-b6322a3807d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a Lesswrong newsletter I can subscribe to?
I've gone on EA forum much more often when I get regular emails about new posts on the EA forum. I want to check LessWrong more often, but... I don't...
The EA forum had a mailing list that was hidden and very hard to search for; took me around 6 months after it lau... |
603dd3e1-becd-48b4-85a9-0b60d468d81b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Assistive Multi-Armed Bandit.
I Introduction
---------------
*Preference learning* [[1](#bib.bib1)] seeks to learn a predictive model of human preferences from their observed behavior. These models have been applied quite successfully in contexts like personalized news feeds [[2](#bib.bib2), [3](#bib.bib3), [4]... |
91182d9e-2bd6-47a9-869e-354150fae890 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coronavirus: Justified Key Insights Thread
This is a thread to list important insights and key open questions about the coronavirus and the coronavirus response. The inspiration for this thread is Eliezer's post below.
I'd like this thread to be a source of claims and ideas that are self-contained and well-explained.... |
92a9e920-8fad-4c49-ad21-36365b298cf4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mech Interp Challenge: January - Deciphering the Caesar Cipher Model
I'm writing this post to discuss solutions to the November challenge, and present the challenge for this January.
If you've not read the first post in this sequence, I'd recommend starting there - it outlines the purpose behind these challenges, an... |
94ac6985-4a19-416c-adba-c52a4d505fd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Safety standards: a framework for AI regulation
Purpose: provide a public resource on safety standards that introduces the ideas I've heard people talk about and some new ideas. I don't know which ideas are new because the discourse has been largely non-public. I think safety standards provide a clear regulatory direc... |
105850fb-1f13-4d0b-92d2-fa11c17f2f9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Eliezer and Nick Share a Cab...
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Eliezer and Nick Share a Cab...
WHEN: 19 June 2013 11:20:26AM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm Wednesday, June 5th.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Ba... |
6d82e005-5b39-46a5-b376-484058ed1503 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Cost of Thriving Index
Scott Winship argued recently that the ‘cost of thriving’ has fallen, pushing back once again against Oren Cass and his rather arbitrarily calculated ‘Cost of Thriving Index (COTI).’
Alex Tabarrok posted today on Marginal Revolution that Winship and coauthor Horpedahl were right, but tha... |
cfa44067-508f-4b8f-941f-93271dccbe44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #54: OpenAI Updates Restructure Plan
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
In this edition: OpenAI claims an updated restructure plan would preserve nonprofit control; A global coalition meets in Singapore t... |
0574151e-9268-49aa-a4c8-1f01d6bfd3fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Books: Lend, Don't Give
EA books give a much more thorough description of what EA is about than a short conversation, and I think it's great that EA events (ex: the dinners we host here in Boston) often have ones like Doing Good Better, The Precipice, or 80,000 Hours available. Since few people read quickly enough tha... |
83e735fe-0bed-488d-a6b8-7920a4515e39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Illusion of Iterative Improvement: Why AI (and Humans) Fail to Track Their Own Epistemic Drift
I just conducted a fascinating experiment with ChatGPT4 that revealed a fundamental failure in AI alignment—one that goes beyond typical discussions of outer and inner alignment. The failure? ChatGPT4 was unable to track... |
8ae0c7a8-1956-49e9-a349-ccb0fe0d281e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Poker with Lennier
In J. Michael Straczynski's science fiction TV show Babylon 5, there's a character named Lennier. He's pretty Spock-like: he's a long-lived alien who avoids displaying emotion and feels superior to humans in intellect and wisdom. He's sworn to always speak the truth. In one episode, he and another c... |
bf4de655-c08d-4297-9449-2192ff7f19c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] How to increase conscientiousness
I wrote an interactive blog post, How To Increase Conscientiousness, which has some steps which I think might increase your conscientiousness. I'm not sure if it works, but I would love to see some curious low-conscientiousness people try it and post your results here.
If you ... |
1f4c7845-8d41-4644-8c40-7be61c39e320 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to get nerds fascinated about mysterious chronic illness research?
Like many nerdy people, back when I was healthy, I was interested in subjects like math, programming, and philosophy. But 5 years ago I got sick with a viral illness and never recovered. For the last couple of years I've been spending most of my no... |
d0c4c6a5-324a-4df5-a05f-cb4b804c4507 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years
by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish
In this post, we point out that short AI timelines would cause real interest rates to be high, and would do so under expectations of either unaligned or aligned AI. However... |
8197fe60-825a-42ca-a2db-17f5fda61b53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on June 13th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Bangalore meetup: 29 June 2014 04:40PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Helsinki Meetup: 15 June 2... |
976cb4c8-a1b6-4413-8fbf-fc0705273471 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | London meetup, Shakespeare's Head, Sunday 2011-03-06 14:00
Our last London meetup was a fantastic success! We're doing it again, same time same place. The time: Sunday 6th March, at 2pm. The place: the Shakespeares Head (official page) on Kingsway near Holborn Tube station. As before, we'll have a big picture of a ... |
0fedf90b-ca66-4a72-9d15-37d83825907a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Utility is not the selection target
Epistemic status: shitpost.
Suppose that you are selecting for utility. Naively, you might think that this means you are selecting for utility, but actually this is not the case.
Sometimes greenbrownness is the selection target
Military gear is sort of greenbrownish.
This occurs... |
a483d57e-4b2a-4ba6-a63e-7c7643bf87f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI overhangs depend on whether algorithms, compute and data are substitutes or complements
Summary
* Decreasing the cost of a factor of production creates an overhang if the elasticity of substitution between factors is less than 1
* This corresponds to whether or not the elements of the production function are sub... |
7dc3e235-c2b3-4929-a92d-47286511162d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Trying to find the underlying structure of computational systems
*This post was written in the* [*SERI MATS*](https://www.serimats.org/) *program under* [*John Wentworth*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth)*.*
In our quest to find steering mechanisms in computational systems, we first have to find the ri... |
60fb63eb-345f-455b-8888-dba4d1f720b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2016 ESPAI questions printout
This is a list of questions from the [2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](http://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/).
Details
-------
This page is a printout of questions from the [2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](http://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-prog... |
6dab33b7-1e7d-4ebd-a464-9cdd92872d90 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Axiom of Choice: Definition (Formal)
#Getting the Heavy Maths out the Way: Definitions#
Intuitively, the [axiom](https://arbital.com/p/-axiom_mathematics) of choice states that, given a collection of *[non-empty](https://arbital.com/p/-5zc)* [sets](https://arbital.com/p/-3jz), there is a [function](https://arbital.com... |
a759dc64-5799-4d7e-a18e-5f27f3b7c28a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uncertainty about the future does not imply that AGI will go well
Subtitle: A partial defense of high-confidence AGI doom predictions.
Introduction
Consider these two kinds of accident scenarios:
1. In a default-success scenario, accidents are rare. For example, modern aviation is very safe thanks to decades of en... |
8e47fb97-adf1-4bea-bec4-0595572020cd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | My current research questions for «membranes/boundaries»
*Context for this post:* [*«Boundaries/Membranes» and AI safety compilation*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fjgoMaBenyXcRDrbX/boundaries-and-ai-safety-compilation)
update: this post is old, don't look at it
==========================================
**This p... |
7deae474-cd32-42ca-b159-16896f9c6beb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Academic Papers Are A Terrible Discussion Forum
Over the past few months, the Singularity Institute has published many papers on topics related to Friendly AI. It's wonderful that these ideas are getting written up, and it's virtually always better to do something suboptimal than to do nothing. However, I will mak... |
c6c61654-e697-425e-8c54-3875a4a8a344 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Improved visualizations of METR Time Horizons paper.
TLDR: Skip to the last image at the bottom of my post to see the visualization.
I don't usually post here, but I know you folks like forecasting and timelines, so I think you might appreciate this. The recent time horizons paper by METR is great, but it only visual... |
30811349-e01b-4061-b60b-fd990335c3b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Rationalization
Today's post, Rationalization was originally published on 30 September 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Rationality works forward from evidence to conclusions. Rationalization tries in vain to work backward from favourable conclusions to the evidence. But you cannot rationali... |
1bb2f5c8-c045-48ee-a2d8-04be9bdae06a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An open letter to SERI MATS program organisers
### (Independent) alignment researchers need to be exceptionally good at philosophy of science
In order to be effective, independent AI alignment/safety/x-risk researchers should be unusually competent in philosophy of science, epistemology, and methodology of research (... |
48a371bf-f19f-4911-8d8a-3ea736ee2c1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wikipedia pageviews: still in decline
In March 2015, I wrote about a decline in Wikipedia desktop pageviews over the last few years (and posted a short version to LessWrong). With a lot of help from Issa Rice over the last year, and a lot more quality data, I've revisited the claims of that post.
This post provides a... |
5ca98c97-850c-41f7-ad85-4375f3a5b1ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore Weekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore Weekly Meetup
WHEN: 10 July 2016 08:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 1726 reisterstown road pikesville maryland 21208
Pikesville DoubleTree - Hilton, at the restaurant / bar or at one of the tables outside.
Discussion article for the meetup : Ba... |
8cce892f-4694-4d99-a452-08980bf3d206 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Truth seeking as an optimization process
From the costs of rationality wiki:
> Becoming more epistemically rational can only guarantee one thing: what you believe will include more of the truth . Knowing that truth might help you achieve your goals , or cause you to become a pariah. Be sure that you really want to kn... |
19252331-06da-48b9-b2ed-2a6f583643d4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AISC5 Retrospective: Mechanisms for Avoiding Tragedy of the Commons in Common Pool Resource Problems
Work by Quinn Dougherty, Ben Greenberg & Ariel Kwiatkowski
From the AI Safety Camp group that worked on [Cooperativity and Common Pool Resources](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEmfyhqMcSpfnY2dX/how-teams-went-about-... |
cfb6e382-9a33-409f-91eb-4672228a4280 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Statistics for objects with shared identities
I want to know if there exist statistics for objects that may "share" properties and identities. More specifically I'm interested in this principle:
Properties of objects aren't contained in specific objects. Instead, there's a common pool that contains all properties. Ob... |
375bfeaf-9427-459a-a39a-19b764843b5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | «Boundaries», Part 3a: Defining boundaries as directed Markov blankets
This is Part 3a of my «Boundaries» Sequence on LessWrong.
Here I attempt to define (organismal) boundaries in a manner intended to apply to AI alignment and existential safety, in theory and in practice. A more detailed name for this concept might... |
79565d00-fd4e-4ec9-9bda-b9b9c6fa7766 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on November 20th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Prague Less Wrong Meetup: 02 December 2015 07:00PM
* San Antonio Meetup!: 29 November 2015 02:00PM
The remaining meetups take place in cities... |
cb4ad2e2-e3b7-4008-85ca-1e3d911881e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chording "The Next Right Thing"
One of the songs we're planning for this year's Boston Secular Solstice ( more) is The Next Right Thing from Frozen II. It's sad and dark, but also hopeful and determined, and fits well with the program and theme.
I'm going to be accompanying it, and don't like the chords I can find on... |
1fa22245-e092-43b7-81ad-c45e6a27525d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Spoofing the Limit Order Book: A Strategic Agent-Based Analysis.
Abstract
--------
**:**
We present an agent-based model of manipulating prices in financial markets through spoofing: submitting spurious orders to mislead traders who learn from the order book. Our model captures a complex market environment for a sing... |
6a71fe0e-5eeb-44ec-a652-0e0da364d031 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Empirical Findings Generalize Surprisingly Far
Previously, I argued that emergent phenomena in machine learning mean that we can't rely on current trends to predict what the future of ML will be like. In this post, I will argue that despite this, empirical findings often do generalize very far, including across "phase... |
2b1660e4-aaea-4f05-9db2-4566b3543ace | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Be Skeptical of Correlational Studies
People kept noticing that blood donors were healthier than non-donors. Could giving blood be good for you, perhaps by removing excess iron? Perhaps medieval doctors practicing blood-letting were onto something? Running some studies (1998, 2001) this does seem to be a real correlat... |
00881ee5-1edd-41a3-9c8c-900812cde8c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISC Project: Benchmarks for Stable Reflectivity
Apply to work on this project with me at AI Safety Camp 2024 before 1st December 2023.
Summary
Future prosaic AIs will likely shape their own development or that of successor AIs. We're trying to make sure they don't go insane.
There are two main ways AIs can get bet... |
8bc2a252-7cc6-43c9-88a2-8b9f32080bff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs)
***With:** Thomas Krendl Gilbert, who provided comments, interdisciplinary feedback, and input on the RAAP concept. Thanks also for comments from Ramana Kumar.*
***Target audience:** researchers and institutions who think about existenti... |
d0264c2d-c03a-4f8d-a80f-595718c58dc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Test meetup please ignore
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore
WHEN: 27 March 2017 11:18:40AM (-0700)
WHERE: antartica
sorry
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore |
752296d7-2b58-4ad7-bafa-96e535c36ff5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How much alignment data will we need in the long run?
This question stands out to me because:
* It should directly affect empirical alignment priorities today
* While it is informed by both theoretical and empirical evidence, it seems tractable for purely theoretical alignment researchers to make progress on today
I... |
7ed3ff3a-d27f-41d1-8be1-e11ee1686b5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Indifference utility functions
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
During a workshop with MIRI at the FHI, I defined indifference via reward signals, saying something along the lines of "we can do it with proper utilities, but its more complicated". I then never got round to defining them in terms of util... |
abb55e1c-85ec-487f-8938-20e0059350d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experiment: Separate High/Low Productive Hours
Right now, I'm fortunate to be contracting at a tiny organization with extremely high trust. This meant I was able to pitch an offbeat idea:
I could bill for two types of hours:
* High productivity hours.
* Low/medium productivity hours.
I’d get paid roughly twice a... |
374fb804-f5e6-4b52-8836-06f154ccf28d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are language models close to the superhuman level in philosophy?
An alternative way to ask the question in the title of this post: what capacities do philosophers use that language models lack?
Reading OpenAI’s “Self-critiquing models for assisting human evaluators” and Google’s “Language Model Cascades” has led me t... |
081ba432-687b-4e6f-8f38-5372e4ec3a5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vanilla and chocolate and preference judgements
Related to: 2-Place and 1-Place Worlds, Offence versus harm minimization.
Note: edited to replace 'value' with 'preference' as suggested by orthonormal.
Imagine you overheard two children having an argument over whether vanilla ice cream was better than chocolate ice c... |
b7449113-120f-46e8-8f0c-4848febc5b5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019
EDIT: To help assessing, go here. Cheers!
Many years ago, I helped organise an assessment of Kurzweil's predictions for 2009, in his 1999 book "The Age of Spiritual Machines". The results were mixed - I feel he had a decent track record, but it was much worse than his own... |
7f31f887-d41d-4920-9d81-a9ee563118aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Folding Couch Monitor
I find working on a laptop to be pretty rough ergonomically. The only way for my wrists to be comfortable is if the laptop is flat on my lap, and keeping my wrists happy is very important to me. This means my neck is angled down at the screen, though, and I can't do this for very long without it ... |
77490fc5-1d15-4d8c-8314-da062722db2c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why I think it's important to work on AI forecasting
*Note: this post is a transcript of a talk I gave at EA Global: Bay Area 2023.*
These days, a lot of effective altruists are working on trying to make sure AI goes well. But I often worry that, as a community, we don’t yet have a clear picture of what we’re really ... |
5b739aef-45e5-4b4b-a7a9-327641962469 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NATO: Cognitive Warfare Project
NATO seems to have a project on cognitive warfare and a few public reports online:
> Interim Report
> Based on the Understanding Phase findings, NATO has identified the following priorities:
> - Develop a Critical Thinking online course
> - Develop improvements to the decision making ... |
61494150-31b8-41d7-a85b-9b5526641a55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anyone use the "read time" on Post Items?
Someone recently mentioned that they found the "read time" on home page post-items to be more of annoying clutter than a helpful indicator of whether to read something.
It occurred to me that I don't personally use them, and in general it's important for each UI element to be... |
b6508b2d-16ed-4531-989e-d5d79d38c0db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bratislava lesswrong meetup III
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava lesswrong meetup III
WHEN: 20 May 2013 06:30:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Uršulínska 9, 811 01 Bratislava
We will see each other at Malewill café.
Breaking news !!! The charming girl, Cat from USA, who teaches emotional stuff at CFAR ra... |
fa643297-9f6b-40a7-b5a9-7a8d56bd1f95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpretability of SAE Features Representing Check in ChessGPT
Produced by Jon Kutasov and David Steinberg as a capstone project for ARENA. Epistemic status: 5 days of hacking, and there could be bugs we haven’t caught. Thank you to the TAs that helped us out, and to Adam Karvonen (author of the paper our work was ba... |
1c940edb-748a-40a5-b0e2-fb22e580b39a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Benign model-free RL
In my last post, I described three research areas in AI control that I see as central: reward learning, robustness, and deliberation.
In this post I argue that these three pieces may be sufficient to get a benign and competitive version of model-free reinforcement learning. I think this is an imp... |
45ac49ff-05cb-4e61-8fd2-3b52903f89cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Collaborative Truth-Seeking
Summary: We frequently use debates to resolve different opinions about the truth. However, debates are not always the best course for figuring out the truth. In some situations, the technique of collaborative truth-seeking may be more optimal.
Acknowledgments: Thanks to Pete Michaud, Mi... |
df15a1e6-e1a3-4216-b78a-fe8611351427 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Saving the world in 80 days: Prologue
What is this?
This is an intro to an intensive productivity sprint for becoming useful in the field of AI safety. I'll be posting every week or 4 on the good/bad/ugly of it all. Definitely inspired by Nate Soares' productivity sprint.
Who are you?
Recent graduate in Computer Eng... |
b6b9e25d-287a-49c8-b741-2dc55774047d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Minicamp Photos Online
Some photos from Rationality Minicamp, which was run by Luke Muehlhauser, Anna Salamon, and Divia Melwani are now online:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/66605555@N00/sets/72157627675418194/ |
478dcf83-c78b-43b5-a403-7740b44e77e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Common Uses of "Acceptance"
Edit (2024-07-31): I changed the introduction.
If you have Googled “how to do acceptance” and you have found a lot of the explanations confusing or in conflict with one another, you have come to the right place. Learning about “acceptance” as a mental move was surprisingly challenging to m... |
2935c65c-a91b-4229-b5db-4090f2be003c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Fake Morality
Today's post, Fake Morality was originally published on 08 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Many people provide fake reasons for their own moral reasoning. Religious people claim that the only reason people don't murder each other is because of God. Selfish-ists provid... |
08badff7-4782-4b65-8c10-b75e1a768f8e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Interview with lgu5f
\*\*Interview with lgu5f, on 3/22/22\*\*
\*\*0:00:02.5 Vael:\*\* Alright, my first question is, can you tell me about what area of AI you work on in a few sentences?
\*\*0:00:08.4 Interviewee:\*\* Yeah. So I work on privacy in AI. I\'ve been working on differential privacy, which is sort of the ... |
2ea9d9b0-4b6d-4837-be54-adcd1847d088 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kingfisher Live CD Process
Our live album is out today! We'll have physical CDs around the end of May, and it should be on streaming services at some point. If you backed the Kickstarter and haven't heard from us about your rewards, let me know!
Some background on the album if you're interested:
In late January I wr... |
4db01883-d733-40d9-b505-e0043a05c037 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence Reading Group - Section 1: Past Developments and Present Capabilities
This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, see the announcement post. For the schedule of future topics, see MIRI's reading guide.
----------------------... |
ffa0ae2c-2f46-4121-a63c-8ad9c1f1ea0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Austin, Brussels, Cambridge UK, Frankfurt, Moscow, Vancouver
This summary was posted to LW main on March 15th. The following week's summary is here.
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* 2. Frankfurt am Main meetup: 15 March 2013 06:30PM
* Brussels meetup: 16 March 20... |
cd1d1044-d3d4-47e7-9a19-b0f340b2b98c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fight Zero-Sum Bias
This is the first part of a mini-sequence of posts on zero-sum bias and the role that it plays in our world today.
One of the most pernicious of all human biases is zero-sum bias. A situation involving a collection of entities is zero-sum if one entity's gain is another's loss, whereas a situation... |
e35fb3cf-9b60-487a-8990-7a32c766e2b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An apology
Ohhhhh. WOW! Damn. Now I feel bad.
I have been acting like a bull in a china shop, been an extremely ungracious guest, and have taken longer than I prefer to realize these things.
My deepest apologies.
My only defenses or mitigating circumstances:
1. I really didn't get it
2. My intentions were good... |
6f2867c4-7fa9-4c4e-874e-3e80f3e3ddb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ghiblification for Privacy
I often want to include an image in my posts to give a sense of a situation. A photo communicates the most, but sometimes that's too much: some participants would rather remain anonymous. A friend suggested running pictures through an AI model to convert them into a Studio Ghibli-style carto... |
de484605-25c4-40d5-8cfb-9b3729792125 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CFAR and SI MOOCs: a Great Opportunity
Massive open online courses seem to be marching towards total world domination like some kind of educational singularity (at least in the case of Coursera). At the same time, there are still relatively few courses available, and each new added course is a small happening in the g... |
d6dfcaa0-3c08-4c4d-9c75-be24beaa9306 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Aggregating Utilities for Corrigible AI [Feedback Draft]
This is a draft written by [Simon Goldstein](https://www.simondgoldstein.com), associate professor at the Dianoia Institute of Philosophy at ACU, as part of a series of papers for the Center for AI Safety Philosophy Fellowship. Dan helped post to the Alignment F... |
31386585-2619-49be-9de9-cc86b911a9cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How time tracking can help you prioritize
This piece is cross-posted on my blog here.
Ann told her supervisor that she would get a draft of her research proposal to them by Friday. However, it’s Sunday afternoon and Ann is just now finishing up her draft. She has to force herself to even look at the draft because Ann... |
6c1f4453-b5ff-4145-ab13-9bf612a75505 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The issue of meaning in large language models (LLMs)
Cross posted from New Savanna.
Noam Chomsky was trotted out to write a dubious op-ed in The New York Times about large language models and Scott Aaronson registered his displeasure at his blog, Shtetl-Optimized: The False Promise of Chomskyism. A vigorous and some... |
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